tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg November 9, 2016 1:00am-2:31am EST
david: from bloomberg's headquarters in new york. this is local coverage of the 2016 election on bloomberg television. i am david gura. guy johnson joins us now. is what hasands out been happening with the foreign exchange markets. brexit, esau the instant reaction -- you saw the instant reaction. you are seeing it as far as the turkish lira. the market is looking for safety. you are seeing overnight falls in dollar-yen, spiking to levels
we have not seen since brexit. it is fascinating to see the market really getting caught here, it will be people on the wrong side of the trade. looking at the options expiring you will see in the aussie today. you could see real fireworks as far as -- afield as australia. anchor: reacting to the uncertainty surrounding these three states. let us start with wisconsin. about the accent is here. donald trump with 49%. hillary clinton with 46%. we do not know fully what precincts have yet to report. megan: that is a big gap even if we have a little bit left to count. this may in fact go donald trump's way. we have been talking all night. with hismiliarity
trade message which would run strong. a lot of people will be looking at wisconsin tonight, just how close it was in virginia, ohio, and how much he was actually able to move the needle in terms of converting over and getting out the voters he needed to get out and that is looking strong for him. we are seeing coming through in the exit polls is hillary clinton pulling weaker among -- polling weaker among african-americans. anchor: wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania. michigan, 16 electoral votes on the line. hillary clinton with 47%. donald trump with what he a present. a very thin -- with 48%. a very thin margin. megan: we will look at how much of detroit is left to count. michigan and wisconsin, this bedrock, upper midwest firewall they thought they had solidified just in case the trump wall started to bleed wes,t if they
took pennsylvania and ohio. she may lose all three tonight. anchor: 20 electoral votes on the line. 98% of precincts reporting in pennsylvania. donald trump with 49% of the vote. hillary clinton with 48% of the vote. a razor thin margin there. megan: this will be how many urban votes are left out there. pennsylvania has been the white whale of the republican party for a long time now. they always thought it was a state in their beach. when we are looking out what is going on tonight, we really have to focus on the message that he , andlayed really strong economic message, the jobs of methods, not just in western pennsylvania. his message on taxes with more affluent voters. if pennsylvania goes red tonight, all covered in red tonight, that is a pretty seismic up he or the american
political landscape. this night will be historic for many reasons. the map shaping up tonight, very few people would have drawn that in. anchor: the dissatisfaction , the this trust and dislike of hillary clinton. -- dave. to the casino >> the thing that is standing up to me right now at this point is the margins, so small. in michigan.now about 98,000 margin in wisconsin right now. these are really tight races. wisconsin in particular, there is some counties still out run madison, that would be a democratic county. milwaukee, also a democratic county. performs atton
obama levels, she is creeping toward that 98,000. she could pass it, but man, it is a close call. inn if she had a late surge those counties. i want to show you new hampshire. not as important of a state. four electoral votes. look how close this is. 100 votes. 47-47. 100 votes margin in new hampshire. this is how close it is getting it and this is what we are watching, every county come in and swing the races in different directions. at the electoral college, we are following that. we are following market reaction. risk off and haidi lun is in hong kong, looking at that risk off. a david, i am thinking of more dramatic way to capture the sentiment. it is not just risk off, it is letting it all though, trying to unwind some of these bets that
have then put in place of clinton getting this victory pretty easily. haidi: take a look at futures. this is how we are looking at the open. s&p 500 trading down. the group suspending trading they'll futures falling by as much as 800 points at one stage. we are really setting up for not a very pleasant day. if anything is to go bad in asia, on the other hand, we have seen a global rally when it comes to bonds. take a look at a rally being led by the u.s. in particular.
we are seeing benchmark jumping. prices jumpingumping the most se brexit. we are seeing this being replicated across other markets as well. this heavy buying into jgb. even the five-year jgb's are falling the most since early october. this flight to safety is happening not just in the u.s., japan, australia, we are talking about new zealand as well. wherever there is safety that can be found, we are seeing investors flocking to that. this has been the safe haven player of the day. we are looking at 101 .70. 99 in theking at 98, event of a trump victory. japanese markets have been closed. the ministry of financial authority board and the boj meeting at the moment to talk about what this harsh and volatile move. we will have to see if they come up with a policy that involves essential intervention and that stronger yen, very info for the economy there. colleaguedi lun, our in hong kong. i want to bring back guy johnson who joins us in new york and making green. -- megan green. and david bloom.
megan, we were talking almost 24 hours ago. no rest for the weary here. let us take some stock here. could you have forecasted what we are seeing here? no.n: i did my own prediction and it did not come out this way at all. i do not think the markets expected this at also we are going to see a huge correction best and are indeed already seeing it. >> is this part of the same stream here? megan: i know we need to stop meeting this way. i think greece and i learned our little bit different but there are some of the same things underpinning brexit. populism. thinkt for trump, i people feel less behind and the
reasons for that are largely economic. people are feeling this recovery boosting their incomes because tre is not a lot of weight growth. the weight growth we are seeing is going toward -- wage growth is going toward supervisors. ethicsglobal head of research at hsbc. david, the market got it wrong again. >> this, again, these opinion polls, we are much more people are this time. we looked through exit, but -- brexit.- through yen has gone 17% so japanese investors in mexican products have been absolutelyimated 10%,e than t 1 10%, more than that, 17%. we have not yet had equity markets opened properly. bond markets open properly. it you are absolutely right. we are sitting in shock this morning. >> who got it the worst this
morning do you think? do you look around and think about the risks, what is happening on the buy side. where is the real pain being felt? >> obviously, the the trump thermometer -- we saw it from 19.5 to below 18.30. we could trade all the way to 22, we reckon today. we'll see what happens to the rest of the emerging markets. we have argued the remember the will be very -- the reminmbithe -- the will be very important. this is the beginning of the reaction, just the start. anchor: david, how do i price the fed in this scenario? the probability has dropped
below 50% of the fed actually pulling the trigger in december. we all capitulated and said it right, we think they are going in december and now, we are saying, maybe they are not going in december. we have that game being played the whole time. we think the fed will pull the trigger in december but the probability of that happening has dropped substantially from to below 50% according to the market. this is another meeting where we thought we knew what would happen and we were completely wrong again. megan: i think a december rate hike is totally off the table in the event of a trump win. what do they do next year? as the fed more likely to cut or hike first because i think a trump presidency could actually well represent a recession in the u.s., could tip us into a recession. exactly it. it might take a while for the u.s. to go into recession so they might stay on hold for a long time. >> i would just like to counter
that in a sense on the question. if trump or to win and it looks very likely now, he will have the whole of congress. once you have a fiscal push -- andt he have a fiscal push a stronger dollar against many emerging markets as the fed counteract the fiscal push as part of monetary policy? quite the reverse of what you are saying, i think. >> the u.k. data has not weakened yet. megan: brexit has not actually happened. all of trump's are inflationary estthe fed will have to inv as well. trump's plan for that is to have five to 6% growth. potential growth in the u.s. is somewhere between 1.5% and 2% so that is not going to happen. i do not think the stimulus will be as big as everyone is hoping. is, what you say
to get elected and what you actually are going to do could be two different things, so i think we are going to see if be hanging ond his every word to see what has he said before that he actually means and what is he saying now? the market is going to sit there in a very tense situation, hanging onto every word, word about china, worth about fiscal policy, words about the fed. were they election winners or is this going to be reality? that is the question we will be sitting here, hanging on every word of his. >> we are going to have to listen to every word, but i -- i suspectvisit specific and are going to come yet. megan: we have uncertainty until we get the election called. there is a chance we could end up with a tie and recount in some districts in nebraska and
maine, for example. ofmight have a period instability. before you know who have even won the election. if it is a trump victory, we are going to be -- it is going to be a while before we have any clue what trump is really going to stand for . the market side of the story, the political side, we await results on pennsylvania, wisconsin, and michigan. everyone watching very closely. we want some very closely as well on bloomberg television and radio. ♪
senate race in pennsylvania, according to the republicans holding that seats. with it, republicans retaining control of the u.s. senate. earlier, republicans retaining control of the house of representatives. the x factor when we look at the branches of government here, the executive branch still up in the air. we are facing the potential of donald trump being president with a republican house and senate. he has been very clear about turning over the wonkin ess of the legislature. they will hold the senate. it is interesting that pat toomey race in pennsylvania. we are waiting at the national level. pat toomey is under threat. the fact he has preserved the senate seat is an indicator of a potentially bigger red waves than we expected when we started the night. david: we have had assurances throughout the night from donald
trump team answer against that he in -- and surrogates that he intends to work with congress. what do we know of his legislative agenda and given the tenuous relationship he has with paul ryan and has had with paul ryan, this bigger of the house, what do you foresee happening? >> so many of his positions are anathema to the republican party such as issues on trade and immigration such as the starkness of his vision to build a wall with mexico and dealing with that. he has not fleshed out a lot of his foreign-policy for example. he struggled to enunciate what he would do on syria, for example, should we see a flareup in the south china sea. /unknown, shall we say. we are seeing a rush for people to see clarity and certainty and framework for how he would at least begin building the transition team and begin
building a framework for how he would govern america. a bloomberg economics supporter join by and filter and sasha -- ann and sasha. >> i will tell you what we have been doing here is reading back .hrough the republican platform suddenly, it is relevant. >> the republicans have put on a blueprint for the tax reform proposal which they would like to see which would basically simplify the tax code, lower the rates for corporate and individuals and limiting deductions by broadening the base by being revenue neutral. that is likely to be the blueprint for what trump does. >> the primaries, what you sell donald trump was his tax plan was sort of, even the supply-siders said, "no, you cannot go that far." you saw this convergence with paul ryan's tax plan and explicit nod toward the
congressional republicans. we are looking at three brackets. there is no immediate cuts to defense is what they seem to be playing, no immediate cuts to social programs either. medicare, social security. no real spending cuts. a promise of spending cuts in the future. we are looking at this 4.4 trillion dollar tax cut with no clear way to pay for it. we'll be having a lot of conversations about dynamic scoring, about how it is that all these tax cuts are going to pay for themselves. is there a mandate for this plan, ann? >> a bloomberg politic to last the question about whose vision of the republican party that are fit republicans. donald trump or paul ryan? .1% said donald trump just 33% said paul ryan, so as we move into a paul ryan-led all is the move, there is shoring up to be done within the republican party despite what looks like a
win. >> it does look like it is donald trump's car and donald trump will be driving. -- m paul ryan will be driving. >> donald trump's instinct will play a much bigger role. people are students of institutions in washington would assume that if republicans control the house and senate and you have a policy driven agenda in the house and a president who does not have any real prior hemitments on policy that would be driving the car. he does not like being a team player and he almost every day during this campaign found some way to antagonize, often unnecessarily, someone who should be an ally of his. he does not like to be a passive player. the white house just sit back and let the hill right legislation and -- write legislation and presumes donald trump will not spout off about things. i imagine he would make life
difficult for congressional republicans even if they are passing something he is broadly sympathetic to. >> it sound like paul ryan can get the type plan he wants so long as it is not accidentally called "the paul ryan tax p lan," so long as it is very clear it is the president's tax plan. this is so seven hours ago. the freedom caucus was going to calls ryan problems, but i do not think it is going to be an issue. onthe problem will be down pennsylvania avenue. he will have to figure out how to deal with trump and whether he wants to carry the new president's domestic policy agendas. >> i think there will be a rewriting of the tax code. what i am looking for is every new administration promises they will simplify the tax code. george bush said "the real simple by the tax code." what they did was cut taxes. they did not go through it. o'neill wantedul
as treasury secretary and not what he got. again, what we have been promised, paul ryan said we are going to semper fi the tax code, but it may dispute the leave it -- we are going to simplify the tax code, but it may just be that they leave it. do not make enough money to pay taxes at the federal level. >> 47%. number.nk that is the when people talk about tax cuts, there is a surprise that the benefits largely go to the wealthy. for donald trump to truly deliver, he is going to have to get involved on tax policy in order for people to feel that in fact, he does look out for them. be a hard there will landing on growth in a year and a year and a half. jeb bush said this during the primaries. we are going to get to 4% growth. trump said, might economic advisers made me, but i think we can get to 5% growth. the imf does not suggest we can get to anywhere but 2% or 3%
growth, but we will be watching that of course. of the we can break out new normal. in the meantime, we are talking about the new trump. david: thank you. joining us from the experts desk. let us look at global marco movers now. guy johnson standing by with those. -- macro movers now. guy johnson standing by with those. guy: london is waking up. that is leading through to london. the big volumes going through london and the foreign exchange markets and that is now what we are going to be paying attention to to see executive what is happening. the mexican peso moves north of 20. watch what happened a little later on. the australian dollar will be a focus. the futures currently pointing very negatively at the moment. we have got a 4% move priced in.
london, frankfurt, paris, all having to deal with this on a cash basis very soon. that will set the tone as to how the rest of the date will move as well. the emerging markets will be a theme as well. the indian rupee, we are watching what is happening with the turkish lira right now as well. big moves in those currencies. brexit felt different. u.k.rned around to being a story and focused into what is happening in london. this feels more global, as if it will be represented around the world in a very different way. looking atre wisconsin, pennsylvania, and michigan. they could be hugely determinative. bloomberg's special election night on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ♪
david: this is bloomberg politics, and election night special. i am with megan murphy and guy johnson. the latest update on our electoral map here, a map that has stayed pretty static for the last hour plus. >> i want to run through one scenario. the rates in pennsylvania seem to be getting tighter and tighter and that state has 20 electoral votes. 244. is at all he would need then is to win votes in11 electoral
arizona. that is leaning donald trump. he is ahead by four percentage points, at least in the votes that have come in, and pennsylvania, those 20 are a big deal for donald trump and his path. steven: look how close he is to that path. he is up by 60,000 votes. hillary clinton is, there is both still out in the state in pittsburgh, the county surrounding pittsburgh and some counties in the philadelphia area. it is increasingly looking like there is not enough votes, even if she performed at obama levels in that pittsburgh county where there are some of votes out, it is not enough for that 50,000 gap. she would have to find that .omewhere -- 60,000 gap she would have to find that somewhere else. megan: trump we have talked women with college
degrees. he seems to have turned out a margin than one would have inspected. how much is this hillary clinton surprisingly failing to get the coalition together that obama got together in 2008 and 2012? it is not,e of definitely. some of it is underestimation of republicans coming home. there are republican women and different groups that voted for votey that are seeing a for donald trump this year. there was expectation that hispanic and women would vote for hillary clinton overwhelmingly. we are not seeing that margin. she won those groups, we are not eating the margin that -- seeing the margin we are used to seeing there. add to that what you are talking about, a lack of enthusiasm among obama's coalition, the two just did not add up, at least, if they are not seeming to. david: our viewers are seeing at
the bottom of their screens, senate control was not decided as the gop leads. we are relying upon the projections, the ap have projected the senate was going to stay in republican control. ap now walking that back. exists.ibility we are not at the point, ready to declare. we should be very clear that we are not ready to declare the presidential race yet and it is still close. we always talk about donald trump essentially lodging challenges, calling this a rigged. we could see hillary clinton challenging these contests if it gets close enough. pennsylvania, that gap looks a little wide. we will have to see if these three dominoes fall and what then the candidates do who are in no position to say this is over. it has been a much better night for donald trump than many expected. david: we have not heard any news.
kelly ayotte running for election. up theree governor thinks they have the votes. they put out a statement saying they think it is very tight, but show her with 5000 votad. who knows if that is actually what we will see the night. again, that senate battle has been a proxy for much of this race. i wonder if kelly ayotte wishes she had drawn a little bit closer to donald trump during her campaign? david: the ap revising. the gop has retained control of the senate, now saying that control is not decided . still sorting out the impact. haidi lun is in hong kong with the latest. if you need any sort of example to tell you that this is not a u.s. story, it has global revocations, you have to look at this heinous selloff in asia. the first markets reacting to the potential of trump in the
white house. there is the argument that they have gotten a little too countable with the prospect of clinton winning this election. this is what we are seeing. where are they hiding? it is a classic safe haven story. they will come off some of the session highs when it comes to you in dollars. we are up.-- if trump manages to secure that the, we are going to see the yen touching at 98, 99. as we speak, the market has closed. we have the bank of japan and other regulators meeting in tokyo this hour to talk about the international markets. we have already seen the bank of korea have a meeting today. they want to intervene on the ethics markets. we have had authorities coming through from japan saying these moves are volatile and very harsh. the bank of japan, when can they tolerate a stronger yen to the point of breaking 100? taking a look at some of the
losers today in the tokyo session, the bloodbath. right across the board. not a single stock managed to see gains in the tokyo session. if you look at the biggest losers, it is trade sensitive names. donald trump has threatened to tear up the book when it comes to trade. looking that in the water if he gets in the white house. carmakers, honda falling the most since 2008. mazda, we keep going back to brexit, these are the client, the extremity of which we have declines,- these are the extremity of which we have not seen since brexit. let us take a look at the broader map because this is what we are seeing. every single market in asia trading in the red. steep declines. a few pockets where investors have found a little bit of safe haven. gold miners in australia. i am large, -- southeast asia declining their
significantly as well. u.s. futures, in terms of what we are taking from the fed, in december, spot rates have priced in -- that is not working. i will leave you with the spot rates with a 50% chance of a move in december, coming down from 84% at 5:00 this evening. david. david: haidi lun in hong kong with that update on the market. congratulations going around here. caution as we await the results from three key states. a spokesman for house speaker paul ryan. speaker ryan called donald trump and they had a very good conversation. the speaker congratulated trump on his good night and spoke with his good friend, governor mike pence. huge news. the ap projecting that donald trump has won the state of pennsylvania. megan: that is the race, frankly. there is no path forward for
hillary clinton. we have just seen pennsylvania has been called by ap. for me, this is one of the most stunning result of the night. we had seen her up comfortably five to six points. when we go to the data and look at where he held up it was in some of the suburban counties, huge showing in the western part of the state. you can see the faces right now. we are looking at the live shot. that is donald trump headquarters. you see all the red hat there. that is the moment they were waiting for. i cannot even imagine. we should emphasize, this is the moment that many there tonight had not expected. it is of development that will confound dependence, -- the pundits, the polling. people thought they would not be surprised again. we almost no we are looking at the same night tonight. where were the deficits for the hillary clinton campaign? area she waswas an
counting on and the surrounding suburbs. what were the deficits? megan: we are paring into this map. what is surprising is that in some of those philadelphia suburbs, he did much better than expected. you can look at the map. it is nearly all read. we have philadelphia and pittsburgh going blue. think barackng i obama will be reflecting on this evening is one thing that does look true is that hillary clinton did not generate the kind of us is the other -- the enthusiasm among the african-american community that was needed. that will have made a crucial difference as we look at tightness not just in philadelphia and pittsburgh but as we look in michigan, detroit. they needed to come out with her. she needed that coalition. we talked about how personal she made this race, how he put his own legacy on the line. she was not able to stitch together the coalition. whether that was the wrong message or focus, it has all
come home to roost tonight. david: you cannot underestimate the importance of this call. 20 electoral votes moving into donald trump's column. stephen, give us the latest. steven: there is no path forward for hillary clinton. that is 20 electoral votes from pennsylvania and get trumped to 264. ands six away from 270, that is all he needs. he has so got arizona with a four-point lead. that state is not all in yet. it we will be watching it closely. this is a state that is probably going to go to donald trump and he is close in wisconsin, new hampshire, and pennsylvania really wiped away clinton's chances of reaching the white house. megan: i want to quickly go to the map and make sure people can look at it. all of us were drying our format. megan greene has been drying her own electoral map. i can think of very few people who would have drawn the kind of
map that has those states going red. needed tonald trump win an inside estate, needed to get every domino in this race to fall his way. and it did, starting with florida, north carolina, ohio was first. then you get pennsylvania, nobody expected that. we thought early signs of it in virginia when that race was close. it was a signal that this was going to be a longer night and we expected and he has read john -- redrawn map. >> a state that has been blue since 1992. donald trump poised to become the president of the united states of america. that is good to donald trump election night headquarters. our colleague has been there all night. kevin, give us a sense of the rejection in the room there upon hearing the news that the ap has projected pennsylvania will go for donald trump.
folks in the conference room behind me have not learned officially that pennsylvania, the ap has called pennsylvania. this is the first time since 1988 that a republican presidential candidate has won the states of pennsylvania. this is a remarkable feat. this is donald trump banking that the western portion of the state, the coal miners in the states, the refinery workers in the state, that his message will cut across party lines and resonate. course, it signals that hillary clinton was not able to have the turnout, particularly in philadelphia, to match that turnout of president obama. i think what you are seeing in pennsylvania and quite frankly, the closeness in the race of virginia is the impact of obamacare. this is a central part of donald trump's closing message. it remains incredibly unpopular as many in the middle class. that right now, a lot of folks will be talking about as one of
the secret weapons of the campaign megan: in the closing arguments. i want to talk about we have seen pennsylvania and the ap college the donald trump. we are looking at a possibility tonight which is even more it's ordinary than we are talking about. he went pennsylvania, but you might also win wisconsin and michigan. too close. we are looking at new hampshire. the redness of this matter is overwhelming. : theseit and divide voters in the last days of this campaign. is there a sense of unreality there? that they cannot believe what they are seeing? kevin: i just spoke with the cochairman of donald trump's campaign. i asked him point-blank, what is behind this? he said this is grassroots. donald trump communicated not to the mainstream media, ranging news outlets, and instead took a social media approach and grassroots approach. that resonated. put the question to sarah
huckabee, senior adviser to the trunk campaign, and what she told me was that they won. there are many within, they are taking behind me right now. "call it, call it." clearly they know that perhaps this pennsylvania news puts them within six electoral votes of donald trump coming the president elect of the united states. a lot of people waking up in london right now, stunned at this news. not to far away from there, the javits center, margaret covers the white house and the hillary clinton campaign she is at hillary clinton's election night. margaret, they are chanting "call it." what are you hearing at hillary clinton's headquarters? the screen that had been carrying network updates and projections, cable updates and projections went blank and was replaced with just the age and
forward arrow. this audience officially does not know, but people have smartphones. filling upears, i is with tears. hugging. i saw a prayer circle two minutes ago. it is beginning to sink in, we have not heard that reaction yet. margaret: we are waiting for some updates from the clinton campaign about her plans. john podesta just came into the lobby of the clinton hotel. my colleague joe epstein with the pool tonight. thatgin, we believe clinton campaign officials may begin moving at some point over to the javits center. we do not know quite yet what hillary clinton's plans are. megan: you referred to her decision tonight to get what either was going to be an acceptance, but now increasingly looks like perhaps a concession speech tonight under this glass ceiling, under this historic
moment. she has been unafraid in her second presidential campaign to embrace the historic nature of her candidacy. it can be said tonight are deeply felt this is. what are you getting from the campaign and just how deducted, shocked, surprised they feel tonight. best dj, shocked, surprised they feel. dejected,w shocked, surprised they feel. margaret: how will the country recover? what is the message for women and girls and for men in the wake of the path toward apparent victory for donald trump? david: margaret, thank you very much. again, the bloomberg news headline, donald trump poised to become the u.s. president. i want to bring in the senior executive at her at bloomberg news.
-- editor at bloomberg news. we have yet to see the ap call this election for donald trump, but let us talk about the burden of expectations here, these are vis-a-vis -- the burden of expectations will be huge. >> i think that is indeed what is going to happen and he, the wave of voters that came out for him are obviously angry. they felt the government has left them behind and now, donald trump will have to deliver. frankly, he is going to have what looks to be a senate and house republican also. he is going to have all of the tools he needs to deliver on the things he promised. i think people will be holding him to account for that. david: does he know how to use it? , when johnsly said kasich was offered the vice presidency job, he told kasich
he could have domestic and international -- donald, what are you going to do? he said "i am going to make america great." we'll see whether he is really interested in governing. megan: i cannot stop thinking about the color and drama recently. especially with president barack obama and how personally invested he was in this race, how personal he made this narrative and how he said it is a referendum on me and my legacy and on our democracy. how do we have any sort of transition with the personal deep-seated animosity, on a message level? >> if you remember, in one of those speeches, donald, president obama said, "if donald iump is elected president, fully expect to welcome him to the white house and welcome him to capitol hill for his inauguration," and i expect he will fill those obligations.
he has to. david: thank you very much. senior executive editor at bloomberg news. let us turn to the international view. anna edwards is standing by in london. brendan greeley is standing by from the expert table in new york. a lot of start with you and just get your reaction, your sense of things from across the atlantic. na: just starting to get reaction from european leaders, european foreign ministers and defense ministers, crucially, also, to what we are hearing. that reaction coming solely because we do not have official confirmation of the results yet. as things start to look, and interesting emphasis on nato. we have the polish foreign minister saying they hope trump corrupts his nato rhetoric. they have nothing to fear from a trump residency.
he wants the u.s. to reaffirm its security guarantees. no surprise on that subject before many others. this is something that will preoccupy angela merkel as she is waking up in germany. no doubt something that will preoccupy other european leaders. we have heard from marine le pen of the front national in france. she has congratulated donald trump for his success and the american people. also, matteo renzi in italy has his own challenge to his authority and populism being a threat over there. we are starting to see reaction come through over there. we heard from the german foreign minister underlying the concerns that germany will have over nato. that is the first conversation between germany and a president trump would be around nato. guy johnson, what are you looking at in terms of market reaction? now picking up
and the trade is there. looking at these pairs. max.looking at dollar maybe the asian session went a little bit too far. london is seeing a few by opportunities. they real squeeze the positions that have gone too far. there is a definite sense in the market and you are seeing this has, andmex, which quite considerably. megan: news from our reporters in the field that they are still unclear, not clear what hillary clinton is going to go over to the javits center. john podesta passing reporters and saying he was headed over but he was not sure yet when the democratic presidential candidate would make it over. david: we were talking a bit about uncertainty on the contours of it. what does it look like to you, these early hours here. what is it going to take to get us some more certainty here? getting a declared winner would
be first in mine. what does uncertainty look like? >> i think it will take a while to have a sense of what he has been saying and what he actually plans on implementing. that is true for every candidate, the world over, but particularly true for donald trump. there is a big question about what he plans on pushing through, particularly in terms of trade and defense. it is interesting to hear from europe that they are concerned about his plans to pull the u.s. out of nato. i would think putin would be quite emboldened by that. it'll take a while before we know whether or not that actually happened and a while before we know the u.s.'s stance on trade agreements. one thing that will be quick is trump could actually pushed through some trade barriers and tariffs on china and mexico for example and could have a pretty immediate effect on our growth prospects in the u.s.. you move down to washington, d.c. to look at the policy behind these two candidates during the election. what do we know about what donald trump has planned and what those policies look like?
>> i think he has been pretty clear on energy. it is not completely accurate to say we do not know what he is going to do. the best thing we can do is to take him at his word. he has been clear about energy. there he likely we'll see the end of president obama's clean power plan. it isr way to look at that anything that overlaps between the republican's plan in congress and his plan is something likely to be passed also. any restrictions on energy production, we are going to see it disappear, particularly anything that can be erased from the stroke of a pen from the executive branch. congressional republicans and about trump have talked tax cuts and converged on tax cuts. they have these three race, 12, 25, and 33%. that is going to happen. foreign policy, he has been consistently clear on trade and nato. he constantly talks about this 2% of gdp that you're supposed to be spending on defense. there are not that much nato
and countries spending that. everybody else, he has been saying, it needs to pay their fair share. yet talked about south korea and japan meeting to pay their fair share. that is something we are hearing from our european bureaus, something that angela merkel in germany has already reckoned with. she has made noises about recognizing that they are going to have to pay more for defense. you will see a change not just in u.s. attitudes toward nato, but in what other countries have to do and where they are going to pick up the slack. guy: let me take you back to london. one thing we will have to work on very carefully is the ecb. maybe the bank of england as well in terms of reformulating policy for the different world we see. the deductions for the bank, but globalization this morning wending its way around the world , but the ecb is in a very difficult position at the moment. it will have to generate growth. a need for more defense spending. the ecb does not need a stronger
euro right now. the implications are very clear. the ecb speaking this morning and talking about the cheaper dollar. that will not be good for the netherlands. the dollar weakness could be short-term on a trump victory. thinking about the implications for europe and when the dollar goes more into the medium-term, could be relevant. at this point, we are trying to work out exactly who has won and what that does to the fed and that will have that feedback. --will loop into it the ecb loop into the ecb conversation. you have had lots of conversations about brexit over the last 24 hours and what rings true to me is the way we are seeing people who feel left out by the globalization process. we covered that extensively during the brexit votes the way that they have come out it seems in support of donald trump. interesting on the trade front with europe and europe will not
want to see perhaps a stronger euro and perhaps also the transatlantic trade conversation in. it looks like it was dead in the water already, perhaps that underlines that. donald trump has talked about how nato is an obsolete alliance and how he thought the eu would break up. europe as it for wigs up this morning in terms of its trading relationships and security relationship. on brexit, it could be possibly moved. its intentions to have a trade deal with the united states, a little bit higher up the pecking order. have heard from republican advisers to donald trump that they think a trade deal with the u.k. should be done. david: anna edwards in london. brendan greeley joining us now. megan murphy and guy johnson here in new york on bloomberg's special coverage of election night in the u.s. on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio,
host: this is bloomberg politics special coverage of the u.s. election. good morning. trump poised to win the u.s. election. that is the headline bloomberg news is going with at this point. some breaking news about main -- portionsstate that electoral votes to hadley. three of them will go to secretary of state -- former secretary of state secretary -- former senators take the clinton. >> it is a quirky state.
if you win statewide coming get to electoral votes -- two electoral votes. then they have to congressional districts, and it looks like hillary clinton is protected to win one district. donald trump will win one and a as to his total. pennsylvania picks of 20 electoral votes. ap projected trump one that. that is a huge addition to his electoral count. he is just five or six away. really, the whole thing is arizona. arizona is a state just a couple weeks ago that the clinton campaign was talking about as a pickup place. the democrats have been talking about, but not really able to capitalize on. a were hoping that donald trump's numbers among hispanic voters might tip it over the scale. right now, it does not look like it. here is the margin right here -- 81% of precincts reporting, donald trump up 50%.
hillary clinton 45%. there are a couple precincts out. some are and what you my county -- wakima county. aboutf she performed at president obama levels from 2012, she would only pick up about 20,000 votes, maybe a little more if she over performs. look at the margins -- she is down by over 70,000. not clear exactly where she would get those votes in the rest of the state. host: i want to bring up what i think some of our voters will find an external harris that. we are parsing some of this exit data. there is a lot of talk about this latina search for eric surge for search -- the clinton. donald trump may have picked up a third of latino men actually voting did they miscalculate in terms of the latino vote? >> psy, john podesta, the campaign manager for hillary clinton live. john podesta, hillary clinton's
campaign manager. >> we can wait a little longer, can't we? [applause] still counting votes, and every vote should count. several states are too close to call, so in a quite drive anything more to say tonight. . so listen to me, everybody should head home, you should get some sleep. we will have more to say tomorrow. , i want everyknow person in this hall to know, and i want every person across the country who supported hillary to know that your voices and your enthusiasm means so much to her and to kim and to all of us -- to 10 -- tim and to all of us. [applause] john podesa: we are so proud of
you, and we are so proud of her. she has done an amazing job, and she is not done yet. [applause] john podesta: thank you for being with her. we have always been with you. i have to say this tonight. good night, we will be back, we will have more to say. let's get those votes counted, and let's bring this home. thank you so much for all you have done. you are in all of our hearts. thank you. [applause] host: john podesta taking the stage the nice -- beneath the glass ceiling we have been talking about, the highest glass ceiling in the u.s., saying she is not done yet. hillary clinton is not done yet. we will not say anymore tonight, a urging their supporters gathered in new york city to go home and get some sleep. let's go to margaret. she has been following this the
better part of 19 months. astonishing statement by john podesta. unexpected, to say the least. reporter: this is an extraordinary moment. john podesta sending everybody home. that means we will not hear from hillary clinton tonight. let that sink in for just a minute. remember, before james comey's movie 11 days ago, what things look like. they look like things were so much in her favor she might be unstoppable. all the speculation was on what would happen if donald trump lost, and did not give a concession speech that night. the tables have been incomplete turned, upended by the developers tonight. hillary clinton trying to understand what happened tonight, getting her wits about her, trying to fashion the right statement for the country, for her movement, for women, for democrats right now. you can only imagine at the white house, a similar set of
discussions going on later tonight with president obama and his staff. how he will address this tomorrow -- it is an astonishing turn of events. john podesta has a huge history not just with the clinton family , but with the democratic and progressive movement. he was, of course, bill clinton's chief of staff many years ago. the man behind the center for american progress which became that hillary clinton/maybe even more progressive than hillary clinton think tank. he went on to help barack obama with that historical desk is short election. ran the transition effort to head of his white house. he was a counselor on climate change issues, then went wide right -- went right back to henry clinton. -- hillary clinton. hillary clinton was aboard to be that wasn't supposed to be the fulfillment of his movements vision and. host: he will be the man blamed for if this campaign ends an
error. people still thought it would be hilly clinton refusing to concede tonight feeling that tonight. do we think this election is going to be as much about donald trump, or a repudiation of hillary clinton in terms of her trustworthiness and likability of voters. do you think this was a wise move to essentially send people home from that location, specifically picked to celtics tonight as what -- celebrate tonight as what they thought would be the nomination of the first woman president? >> may be a question of any number of factors. the support is very tired, very dejected. some lighting up under the light under coats, crying. the clinton campaign and understanding the outcome of these numbers that are still not in great is now very late at night. again, a very unexpected turn of
events, and a dramatic statement for john podesta. not hillary clinton, not bill clinton, but john podesta to come out and telling me to go home and they will have morning morning. just before he came to the stage, the clinton campaign playing that sort of iconic journey song "don't stop believin'" host: the huge crowd and dig out -- and teeing out -- emptying out. they say they're still counting votes. what is the way forward here? just a way that does waiting game? understand to just the voting. again, a week or two ago, so much speculation in terms of all the efforts -- even just yesterday, there were efforts by the chump campaign to question voting -- the trunk -- trump
campaign. not making campaign any sort of immediate concession. >> margaret talev at hillary clinton's election night in new york. it is emptying out. john podesta took to the podium to say there will be no further announcements tonight from the campaign. an astonishing turn of events. let's go to donald trump election night headquarters at the hilton in midtown manhattan. kevin, you might have thought that donald trump was putting the final touches on a speech, perhaps being about to deliver it? is the on the roma possibility, but in light of a we just saw at hillary clinton's headquarters, what do you think we will hear from donald trump tonight? aide,as speaking with one and i asked if we will be hearing from donald trump tonight.
they said they were not aware as the story was breaking with john podesta breaking that hillary clinton would not be speaking with her supporters. they were not even aware of that. when that news broke, then -- the room behind me erected in boos, and then chance of call it. his supporters are hoping this race will be called. that being said, the irony here of now this pressure being put on the clintons to concede a race. we have to be careful, because no one has declared this race over. the irony of donald trump having called this a rigged election. that is not lost on many people in this room. >> we are at these totals. he is inching ever closer to 270. 218.-- 266 versus if he does big tonight, or if it
is pushed on now into the early hours of the morning, what kind of message will he frame? have they given you any intel about what he is going to highlight when he does speak? on the brink of this historic night. >> his policy advisor is usually the architect of donald trump speeches. the advises i have spoken to have confirmed that he is again taking the reins on whatever comments donald trump is to make. however, i have not received confirmation from the campaign about whether or not we will be hearing from donald trump tonight, or what message that would be. donald has said for we -- four weeks that if he had been elected, he would make the country great. people are waking up with the possibility of donald trump and their president, and that will shock them. he has an opportunity in whatever marks -- remarks he
makes. he was again begin to unify the country, which he has said for weeks that he is going to do. this moment in this campaign with this presidential candidate. >> we were talking about uncertainty, and how long that might last. this is a different type of uncertainty. how well prepared as the trump campaign to fight this if it comes to that? >> if we learned one thing from covering donald trump, it is that donald trump likes to fight . i think what you have right now is a movement across the country -- a grassroots movement, that of course, will be activated whether on social media or in protest. it is too early to speculate. i think everybody is going to be waiting to see what's donald will say, how he will communicate that message.
this is especially the first test for him as the potential president elect to elect -- to address the nation. trump election night headquarters at the hilton in midtown manhattan. we are getting results from alaska here. cnn and nbc projecting that is going to go for donald trump and who that will be talking about alaska? cnn and nbc projecting that donald trump is going to win. >> he is now at 269. he is one away from the highest prize, from going into that oval office. you and i talked about this earlier -- there is a lot of talk about how donald trump was the end of the republican party as we knew it. you know it turns out to be is that this is a new republican party. it may have fractured, it may have splintered, but he has really actually brought out voters. we had lower turnout, lower
enthusiasm, but he has brought people out. taken aters, he is larger share of hispanic men than we ever expected. instead of seeing the death knell for the republican party, what everyone may be talking about is if this is a new awakening of a very different republican party, or if this is the death throes as democrats continue to change. -- demographics continue to change. >> how does this republican party bring into the fold? had arguments with senior figures about this about whether it was an ephemeral moment, or whether it was terms ofome in economic populism, whether this was a brexit moment. whether this was a reliable coalition that could deliver the publican party not just over the next four years, but over the next 20 years. i think the opinion is split. one thing that is for sure is that in terms of groundbreaking
changes in terms of the movement of politics, this is a movement we are seeing very we are seeing. we're likely to see arizona go read. we are very close to see michigan and wisconsin. minnesota is still on that board. this is a new map. map.is a much redder this is a different kind of republican showing than people expected. brendan -- host: brendan, you have been looking at this, there is an expectation in this country in a presidential election that the candidate who does not win steps much,the podium to say as and the winner does take to his or her podium after delivering an acceptance beach. -- acceptance speech. is that required? >> it is more than a formality. i did some reading under the possibility that donald trump, faced with the polls, might not concede. of course, we are looking at a completely different outcome, a sort of non-concession concession from john podesta.
it is more than a formality. the reason political scientists look at this idea that you give a concession speech is that the people who have voted for the loser have to retain trust in the process. they feel like they have been abandoned, they may feel like they have been cheated. one thing the loser can do is to go out there and say we lost fair and square, we are all part of this process, we played by the rules. the rules say we lost. it is more than just a formality. what has happened is -- 200 years ago, the losing presidential candidate would speak personally or send a letter to the winner. now, we have this event we do on television. it is not just there for the cameras. it is there so we all believe that we continue to have trust in the process. i am fairly shocked actually that she did not come out tonight and go through that thing that is more than a ritual. >> do you think this is the case that they actually cannot digest what has happened this evening? can be quite quick
to sort of really be on the defensive about her. part of me thinks that while i agree with you. our that this does not exactly set the candor that we want in terms of certainty, particularly seeing what is going on in the markets. don't you think it is a lot that they actually cannot process the evening? >> sure, but every presidential loser probably cannot plan for that. free that i agree with you. it is probably hard to process that what you worked for did not come through. we saw how mitt romney did this. when he conceded, he got from the couch and said it is time to go, and he walked up and conceded. i can't imagine what it is like to be a member of the clinton family. is one placeis where the fact that hillary clinton is probably on a half to a popular vote majority or plurality at least is important. if she was to keep her options
open until all 270 electoral votes have been assigned conclusively by the news networks, and she has sort of exhausted the possibility for recounts. that will be a lot harder to sustain if she did not have a popular vote majority. it is one of the things that allowed al gore to go on for a month litigating recounts in florida. there is a sort of moral case that comes along with getting the popular vote, even if it does not have any constitutional authority. i can imagine if their lawyers are looking at the possibility of irregularities and challenging them, that is going to be important for the story they tell tomorrow morning very >> -- tamara morning. -- tomorrow morning. >> aside from the candidates themselves and how they feel, we have talked about the politics of anger in this election. one could listen to john podesta saying we're not going to say anything more tonight, we're counting each and every vote, and see that as necessary here when you look at that backdrop, the anger.
it can come across as a reasonable thing here. >> i think it is reasonable given the hour, given the emotional energy on both sides of this campaign that they probably want to just take a , comeest, -- deep breath back and have a more measured and reasoned response tomorrow. i do think this obsession with the concession -- remember when donald trump refused to say whether he would concede the election and everybody was up in arms? i fully expect hillary clinton to concede once the number gets two 270 or above. there is nothing in the law that says a concession has to be made. once donald trump gets two 270, he is the president. host: i want to take up some of this. a lot of talk before the selection, a dominant strain was about hacking and possible irregularities. we have not seen evidence of that right now. i want to point out a bit of thatrating -- breaking,
the trump campaign is huddled to discuss strategy for the rest of the evening. we did not see the hacking as far as we know. as far as what we are seeing in the polling come it does not look like there's that much room for her to challenge. it could change as these other states come in. do you think it is just taking a breath, or do you think she is mobilizing? going on in what is their hotel rooms and how emotional people are. i think they have to get this messaging exactly right. i think they just need a little bit of time and space to do that. i do think it is unfortunate that having nothing more to say leaves open all kinds of aries about what they have in mind -- they haves about what in mind. if the election continues on the path it is and donald trump goes -- 270, they can only do a graceful concession. >> what they want to understand
is what the trump campaign looks like. who are the key people they need to be listening to and what that ultimately looks like. how far progressed is that? >> i don't think it is very far progressed at all. in fact, there was a report a cabinet, and then it came out that trump is not reviewed any of these names. i think they will eventually get to that, and the people you see with him -- people like rudy giuliani, and the family, his sons and daughters who have a large amount to say. i do think donald trump will be the transition team, just like he was the campaign. host: thank you for a much. ashardly begins to say it jump now on a win. likely poised to be president of the united states. haidi lun is in hong kong with the latest. >> it is difficult to describe
the sentiment other than it has been a violent unwinding of these positions of investors in this part of the world. really struggling to try to make climate ties coming given that we have been given so comfortably for a clinton victory and a clinton in the white house worried take a look at the apple that has been passed on from the terrible finish we had in asia over to europe. we are indicated for a pretty negative open. teaches opening lower there as well -- futures opening lower there as well. this is part and parcel of the sentiment we have been seeing. this is what money is going into. we are seeing on session highs when it comes to yen strength. it is very uncomfortable levels for the bank of japan. they are meeting in tokyo to talk about international markets after one policymaker came out
earlier to say these moves we are when it comes to dollar-yen are very volatile. they will be going through an intervening on this currency. take a look at how we essentially are wrapping up the day here in asia. i don't need to say a lot. declineklein -- biggest for asian market since exit -- brexit. >> the jump campaign has been standing by -- tromp campaign has been standing by. any more reaction to what we heard from john podesta? campaigntell you that sources have told me that donald trump is on out to the hilton where i am currently, and will likely address his followers in his room. respond to a we just heard from john podesta from the clinton campaign about their decision for hillary clinton to not make comments tonight.
clearly the crowd in this room and everyone in this country are waiting to hear what donald trump will say, how he will discuss the events tonight, and again, his first remarks since ballots were cast, his first public appearance since he voted for himself earlier this morning. began -- bensent damned, donald trump is going to speak tonight. >> he knows he has a divided nation, he knows that there are a lot of strong feelings, some of which he launched. i would expect him to try and be as conciliatory as possible. i think he would try to set the tenor for actually getting something done and getting something accomplished in a trump administration. i think this is an externally important moment for him. >> is this a hillary clinton loss or a donald trump win?
we have talked about how he mobilized the coalition he needed to, but a lot of this seems to be a rejection not only of hillary clinton, but of barack obama, which is unusual given his approval rating going into this race. >> is a trump victory in my view. to a certain extent, the hillary clinton bernie sanders dynamic, i think a lot of bernie sanders voters did not come out for her, and i think that trump obviously motivated his base. whether he did it intentionally threw a ground game or an air game, he got it done. wondering how bloomberg news is calling the election in the late has us for -- thus far. collected for a little bit for smarty, your sense -- for us marty. >> we have strict rules on when
we can count a particular state in one camp or the other. it has to be two major networks, or we use ap, which is the defining status center for the electoral votes. when they move into those categories, we at the electoral votes. at 269, i think any reasonable person could say he is poised to be president. we decided this was an important thing to relate to our customers. >> when we are looking at that map, which is unlike many of us would have thought. look at arizona. that is trending towards trump by a margin of about four points , that is 11 electoral votes. 269, you add 11 to that and you get there. you still have wisconsin in play and michigan in play. >> will be watching the states here as the morning goes on. earlier than it is in london, where traders are returning to their desk.
host: welcome to the special edition of bloomberg markets third we have the first trade of the day. it is not going to feel like that today, though, is it. we are in new york city. there is only one thing to watch that donaldhat is trump stunned the world. he is poised to eat donald trump to become the 45th president of the united states. we are getting some breaking news. let's break out this heae