tv Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg November 9, 2016 11:00pm-12:01am EST
united arab emirates. i am here and live in the headquarters in dubai. we have got a pack show. the markets set for day two of the election. heidi. haidi: it is mid day. welcome to bloomberg markets middle east. what a recovery we have seen here in asia. it was plunging the most since brexit yesterday, but we have seen quite the bring back. gains,leading the topping 1%. hong kong up 0.8%. --have a weaker you want yuan, tracking gains in the gulf dollar overnight. the topics leading -- topix leading. tokyo stocks were down, but we
made it up and then some. >> i have decided to focus on the bond markets. what a spirited reaction. what does trump really mean for the bond markets? two is a magic number, never mind three. it has flipped on the news read radar, $23 billion of 10 year notes, the weakest demand. look at 30 year government bond yields, timing the most since thinking 77. trump has planned $500 billion to infrastructure. aramco fell overnight. the slump in the market indicates rates in the usa at 1% in two years time. that is the market. the u.n., the bond market, diving. two, but whatb at
does trump mean for oil in the united states of america? .e is a critic of opec what does it mean for opec? what a whip around in the u.s., 1122 points. highest since august 15, only on the upside. the rest of the markets just missing. 0.8 percent, abu dhabi 0.5%. there is a great feeling of anticipation with what trump means for the white house. haidi: the return of that. we are looking for it, there it is. in the hours after his election, , republicans-elect have claimed a mandate to revamp financial rules and replace obamacare. withedits republicans winning the house.
they will enact changes. donald trump: we are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, hospitals. we are going to rebuild our infrastructure. way, will become, by the second to none. not time to hear what the defeated hillary clinton had to say. trump islinton: donald going to be our president. we know him an open mind and the chance to lead. our constitutional democracy and shrines the peaceful transfer of power, and we don't just respect that, we cherish it. president obama: i have instructed my team to follow the example president bush sent eight years ago for the
successful transition for the president-elect. because we are now rooting for his success in uniting and leading the country. haidi: let's get the latest on the markets now. what a difference 24 hours makes. the rally continues here. here is a look at asia. the first 24 hours at the very moment, a lot of networks were projecting donald trump would be the next president, so this is the gms function. it is the first 24 hours at the very a tweak right here. you shift that, it takes you to that moment. in hong kong, it is 3:31 in the afternoon. we have mapped out the sort of move we have seen across asset classes. and the colors are screaming out what it means. the moves are not what you
usually see across markets. stocks in asia very green. that is the simplest way to put it. japan up 6%. singapore 3%. the best day in eight months, volumes surging as well. we are used to seeing this here in hong kong across markets in the region. market story number two, bleeding continues in the bond market. very red, healed going up. 30tralia 10 year 30 years up basis points. move in theg a big yield curve. reading a steeper yield curve. forex, japanese yen still weaker from this time yesterday. everything else in asia, it is down against the u.s. dollar despite smashing earlier.
looking at what markets are expecting, the dollar holding onto gains, they may move in december. thank you. the volumes were literally day average, but we came out of the studio and i have the city of dubai behind me. i have a special guest, the chair of the group. welcome to bloomberg. >> good morning. reporter: the last time you and icon up, you said donald trump is a loose cannon. his presidency would be dangerous for the world. how do you see 24 hours on, what is your perspective? respect, the world has to respect the wish of the american people. they decided to choose donald trump.
the only thing i say, i hope for americans is success. any more onment that because it is american choice. reporter: let's talk about business. the ramifications can be quite defined. trump has talked about let's stop muslims from coming into united states of america. extreme vetting. comments,ook at those what do you want to see coming from trump? how should they reach out to one another? opinion, myy country [indiscernible] we are set up from the review's administration. this is what happens from these
people. we need to feel that we are handed over iraq and iran. what is required, the nuclear weapons, plans from iran. reporter: so would you -- [no audio] john: -- haidi: having some technical difficulties. let's check in on the headlines, including one of our top stories. new zealand central bank saying it has done enough to return inflation after cutting interest rates to the fresh record low. to 1.75%. inflation has languished below, 1.3% target for two years. the strongest growth seen in the developed world. the kiwis are rising on that
statement. >> monetary policy will be accommodated. current projections and assumptions indicate policy including today's easing swissie growth shrine have to have inflation near the middle of the target range. at someormer officials of south korea's biggest companies have been questioned with peddling investigations linked to the president. he had summoned executives from lg, s k group and others. accused the president's friend of coercing companies into making donations. the european commission going to court over a record $14 million tax bill on acid -- apple. they went against the command
that dublin lent money. tax have a campaign against avoidance in europe, but they will look at the investment climate. nilsson says nearly 90% of chinese consumers may take in the singles date promotion friday. jumping 40%, more than $40 billion, but just lower than 54% growth. would havesave it social shopping on the website for longer, boosting ticket sales. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. later in the show, opec was struggling with a deal for production cuts this month. does this trump victory, trump in the white house, make it difficult? what is the middle east take on
♪ reporter: welcome back to bloomberg markets middle east. i am manus cranny. haidi: i am haidi lun in hong kong. let's get a look at the business flash. shares from china's biggest property developer are gaining. raised its stake to 8.3%. they have been on a debt fund buying spree. they built of their land bank in china and are trying to inject assets into a property company on the mainland.
police in singapore have named a person of interest in a money laundering investigation. they told the court hearing about the probe relates to sophisticated money-laundering involving billions of dollars across multiple jurisdictions. the singapore investigation started in 2016, and this included many other people. trader accused of contributing to the 2010 flash crash has pleaded guilty. he is the second person convicted of such plots of manipulation. $14 million. he took stock futures over five years. he was sent to chicago to face charges of manipulation. we are in downtown dubai
billionaire headquarters. let's get back to the conversation with him. thank you for staying with us. we were speaking about iran. if you support trump renegotiating nuclear deals, give me your thoughts. khalaf: i would support him because he is elected by the america, and we have to accept that. number one, he has promised to dismantle the nuclear agreement between and arrangement with america and iran. if you will meet the commitments, i will take the first step. there is a lot of things he promised to do. manus: there is a lot of things. -- let him go for the extreme vetting if he did this nuclear deal. khalaf: --
manus: you think by him becoming president, that will make the sale of properties easier, the relationship with trump khalaf:? we have invested with the president, we cannot look at him as a developer. he is not a developer. manus: investing in america, trump in the white house will go for infrastructure, america will grow. would you be prepared to invest in america? khalaf: i will look and see the model, and let's say september next year 2017 to see what he is going to implement. he has a few promises. we would like to see it. it should be written already. especially for iraq and iran. manus: what do you want to see him say on iraq? the current
administration [indiscernible] by the administrators iranian slaves and iranian [indiscernible] and we want iran and iraq to come back to the arabs. 100%: it is not representation. some people say obama changed policy, brought troops home. we have to see there are two sides on that. the stock about business and markets. warren buffett put a lot of money into cash before this election. did you take any preparation for the risk the market was assuming on a trump victory. are you surprised by the market hundred -- market? , i am thinking affirmatively thinking i have two months not to think or look
into any politics. i will wait and see if he implements what he promises. then i can salute him. manus: if he promises, let's talk about the dollar. looking behind me, we have the gross khalifa. and there are a few hotels here that he owns. the crane you can see it work in down toe pretty much this man. let's talk about the impact on the region. hasn't hurt your hotel occupancy? theaf: we are tied to dollar. manus: strong dollar impact, tourists coming in it. the project is done by 20%, this trip is causing me a fortune. khalaf: but the hotel is cheap
compared to anywhere in the world. this will compensate your currency. manus: let's talk about that. you say the pay is there. will it hold? will it hold against the dollar? khalaf: your currency to the dollar, with all of these hold? manus: it will not surge. manus: i have come down from london. have you seen impact on brings it? the drop on sterling, wouldn't encourage you to look at u.k. assets? khalaf: we are looking for property in england, we have bought some. we have also bought a lot of pound. manus: do you think sterling is going to go lower, would you buy more? it is a war chest. khalaf: we are looking at limitation. we have property there already.
we are looking for other property as well. manus: are you looking in central london? should you look elsewhere? khalaf: it is all packed, everybody making money. manus: where are you looking? maybe: maybe not, fishing. manus: how about buying the pegs? the self-made billionaire buying sterling and prepared to buy a little bit more. more to come from dubai and the headquarters. what next for his business. we discussed this. ♪
see the hotels, many of which you run. coming on board, are you planning to buy more land and build more in dubai? -- af: it is not 600 manus: 1600. khalaf: where looking at the hotel and theaters. polo resort. [indiscernible] for the time being we are holding. the market not bad at all. manus: has brexit impacted your occupancy? khalaf: we have a lot of british coming. a lot of coming to our beaches and resort. 20%ink because every bit of
, you go somewhere else, the hotel room is expensive. manus: what about [indiscernible] how would you describe the residential market, twice as soft? khalaf: it depends on location. with the university and certain , the price will not drop any penny in case we decide to sell. manus: you are not prepared to drop prices. market asf commercial well, are you still optimistic? ipowhole group is linked to . will you ipo the business in 2017? khalaf: we will look at data for ipo's in 25 years from now. at the time i say no, for a reason.
it is for the people, and later i don't make money for them, i cannot sleep. i am responsible. myself,ay i can feel then i can give them minimum of 10%. manus: and that evaluation, has it reason? what would the ipo be worth? khalaf: $6 billion. maybe.lion manus: 2017 -- khalaf: you're talking dollars. manus: i am talking dollars. in terms of the biggest is this opportunity, you have a car business, rental car, hotels, residential and commercial -- khalaf: residential. manus: where will you take it moving forward? he region. .halaf: important regions
like austria, hungary, czech republic. manus: you are going for safe locations. thank you for having us at your hq. what a privilege. we will find it back to haidi. a very self-made billionaire, ready to invest. haidi: great stuff. tying up next, japan's prime minister faces greater challenges as donald trump wins woes. what it means for abenomics. ♪ wow, x1 has netflix?
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♪ haidi: it is 12:30 in hong kong. user first world headlines. rebounding since the steepest slide since brexit. they recovered from the shock of donald trump's election victory. up more than 7% in sydney, the biggest gain since february. the republican controlled congress will be spending on infrastructure. and from protesters have been on the street, angry over election result. held in chicago, philadelphia, washington and others, decrying the crude comments about women and attacks
on immigrants. in new york, thousands marched to the trump tower. one man who is not protesting trumps victory is carl icahn. he said he looked -- left to the victory party to spend about $1 billion on u.s. shares. >> i try to put a lot more to work, but i could not put more than a billion dollars to work. in the bond market got away. still happy about it. haidi: after speculation this would delay the federal reserve from raising interest rates, people are wondering how many times the rate will rise in 2017. investors from kimco to others see the surge in long-term treasury as a sign inflation will be on the rise. that could force policymakers to act more quickly to raise rates costs. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
>> welcome back to bloomberg markets. i am manus cranny. here in am haidi>> lun hong kong. let's get latest from the market. we had a rebound, holding on to those gains. are up 3% markets from midday. it is interesting to see what happens to the fx, but the dollar still holding onto gains. today it is pulling back. we look at the offshore renminbi, 6.81%. still a little above the threshold. before i flushed the other things out, i want to talk about the other plot across markets, happening across the exchanges in china.
shanghai.king about this is copper and iron ore, aluminum. we are seeing gains. these are not normal. iron ore, 6%. on top of that, gains are north of15% from the start october. that is one thing to watch closely. and the raised margin requirements, cole has been 1.sed 80% since october that seems to not be working, if you will. they are preventing further gains. elsewhere, talk about the release rally. .sia, best day in eight months look at japan, 6.1%. nikkei 225 only two or three stocks lower in the market. that is the best day in 10 months. , bestlia, 30 minutes left
day in five years. behind.lose take japan out, the gains are paring back, but we are still up . the volumes are surging. we basically made up for all of the losses yesterday. the story across the bond market is something to watch closely as the bleeding continues, especially when you look at new zealand, south korea, taiwan. when you look at japan, yields are still below for the 10 year but closing in on zero. the highest level of negative three at the moment, highest since the latest doj tweak. -- boj tweak. let's see where this goes. u.s. 10 years 2%. it will see interesting. you think about what pimco is suggesting, three rate hikes next year.
but we have global leaders reacting to the election of donald trump. we have had others reacting to the triumph. some with trepidation. they promised to work with the new leader. >> i would like to congratulate donald trump with his victory in this election. but russia is ready and wants to restore the full-fledged relations with the united states. leads thison who great country with its tremendous economic might, military potential, cultural influence carries responsibility felt all over the world. american voters have decided this responsibility should be carried by donald trump for the next four years. this: yeah, well how will
delicate u.s.-china relationship change with donald trump? he has threatened to rip off trade deals, but massive tariffs on chinese exports. moreen engle is here with perspective. what are we taking? this is the president. stephen: which one will prevail? so many questions right now. we have obama's pit. -- give it. -- pivot. in the u.s. best interest to do that. he would argue, we have such a massive bilateral trade between china and united states, 600 billion plus. it is in china's favor, $208 billion is the surplus china
has. so 45% tariffs on chinese made goods in the states that trump 45%, that could knock off 25% of chinese exports in the first year alone. this would do passive jam it to global -- damage to global trade. trump wants to rip up tpp, nafta, a lot of different things. we will not know. beijing does not know. hillary clinton was a more known commodity that donald trump. but we heard from vladimir putin, angela merkel, xi jinping of thee news agency substandard statement. they relation, i look forward to working with you, mr. trump, to
expand china-u.s.. they use win-win cooperation deal with differences in a constructed manner. xi jinping saying hello. manus: it is interesting. i read this morning over at eurasia, let me read. he said, the election of donald trump shows the world going into a profound and longer-term geopolitical for session. that is ian bremmer at eurasia. what does it mean for politics between china and the united states of america to move away from the terrorist disruption? , china is disruption the biggest holder of u.s. debt. stephen: this is a critical relationship. the relationship for 26 years, and never has it been more critical than right now.
you talk about holdings of u.s. treasuries and the trade agreement, but what about security arrangements in the western pacific? you have allies in japan, south korea, taiwan, the philippines debatable right now, but still security agreement, and trump wants to get the u.s. allies to pay more of their bill for the security blanket the united states military provides. will the allies like japan and south korea move closer to their bigger neighbor, china? will china welcomed them and get nationalistic if they are being poked and prodded by a nationalistic president in the white house? there are so many angles to look like. we don't know what kind of president donald trump will be. there is rhetoric that anticipates when they go into reality of the white house, but
we do not know. he is different. different sorts of new scenarios being presented. we will have to wait and see. a lot can happen between now and when -- stephen: only time will tell. haidi: we would get some certainty. and at the top of the line is china-u.s. relations but also relations with japan when it comes to u.s. foreign-policy and trade policy. we heard from japan's finance minister in parliament, he highlights importance of relations with china and the japan economy. the abenomics, they could face further [indiscernible] from the potential of a trump presidency. we have a lot of headwinds to abenomics. >> tpp is one of the most obvious ones.
donald trump wants to renegotiate trade deals with the u.s. tpp is one of the ones in the firing line. so this is the basis of the postwar disparity and not just japan. it has been a very big part, an important part of shinzo abe's on economic recovery plan. now with this looming, what does it mean for japan? by could boost gdp by 7% 2025. you take it away, you lose a big spur of growth for japan's economy. this is a big concern when they are already struggling to get going to start off with. shinzo abe and donald trump spoke about their issues. abenomics,p praised and they will meet in new york. there are further discussions on tpp and more.
where are we on the great discussion on dollar-yen? people were talking about twitter. know, the bank of japan is in a no-win situation. here we are with trump elect, ais is day to a potentially four-year, eight year term. there is a huge amount we just don't know. >> and a long way to go. third world companies seem to settle down later, but japan has not ruled out the ability of intervention and that itself is a selling point. but the surge will not help japan's economy. this is another one of the headwinds abenomics has been facing. we saw the run-up to the elections where people were looking for safe havens, piling up to the yet and driving it higher.
we saw the fed looked like it was wise to raise rates -- poised to raise rates, but it may not happen. often they are considered inflation, infrastructure upnding, tending to drive the possibility of race, driving up interest, helping out the yen. now we are seeing institutions like blackrock holing up in december. the fed is more likely than not to postpone rather than go ahead with the rate hike in december. goldman thinks it is going to happen. but that is 60% from 75%. they may not raise rates in december. they may soon begin picking up again -- see the yen picking up. reallythese headwinds
are not getting any kind of boost from a possible trump presidency at this point. haidi: complications for the bank of japan. manus: thank you. possibility of a rate hike has to 8%.om 50% we will talk about ramifications for this region from iraq to iran, syria, geopolitical implications. we have a consultant from donna mercy be. this is bloomberg. ♪
going to be praised if they are successful and not pitted against. >> as the economy strengthens, they will rise. it is the normal course of things. as long it is it is reasonable, stock prices are valuable. interest rates are not around this range, so there is a lot of value in the market, upside. even since this recovery of 2009. harsh, mored more negative, but i don't rule out the possibility he may find some way to negotiate something that preserves this deal and preserves the possibility for increasing u.s. trade. that would be beneficial to both regions. geopolitics impacting so
much of the uncertainty. gavin,alk now with director of cornerstone. great to have you. you think that trang will surprise the middle east in ways no one can predict? that is pretty broad. what can you gauge on foreign policy in that part of the world? >> trump has produced a wish list that is not going to be implementable, not all of it, but there will be ways to handle foreign-policy different from obama and previous administrations. it is impossible to predict which parts of the wish list he will be able to predict. others will be bound by the shackles of power. he will be talking to others in the region and stakeholders in the region, russians, europeans, but we will see something different from what we have seen
so far. manus: a very good day to you. i had a conversation with a self-made billionaire in the region. he wants to see trump be supportive. obamabasted clinton and in terms of their policies and giving iraq, giving away parts of the middle east. how can trump at with extended isolation? i am thinking of israel, splendid isolation is not a place for the united states. , the obama administration was not the most popular one as far as the region is concerned. people were uncomfortable with his policies. it was in action as far as the arab spring and syria is concerned. so they hope that this is a great concern to many arabs.
trump has dissatisfaction with the iran deal. was he be able to scrap it? i don't think it will be easy. you have europeans looking forward to expanding business with iran and increasing political engagement. you have got russians who trump would like to be closer. you have to arabs and israelis, israelis very unhappy with iran, but there are other areas where would be potential compromises. i don't think, i would be surprised if he scraps the iran deal. the repeal, the russians would not be happy about completing renegotiation. haidi: his platform has been based on the idea of increasing american isolationism, retreating inward. what does it mean if you
potentially have an america removed from the global stage? what does it mean for the conflict in., americans, who steps in? it will be very dangerous. the previous american administration have become much less active than previous ones, they are not fully engaged, but further disengagement would create a power vacuum. that could open the door for other countries, global powers to get involved. russia, chinese, increase of influence over turkey and iran. i don't think that is in the region's interest. they need a superpower like united states to be were more engaged rather than less engaged in balancing things. briefly, he
suggested he had a grand plan to deal with isis. but he did not say he wants bashar al-assad to go. again, that was part of the wish list. i don't know how much of that he can implement. i don't know if he has a plan or not. is he going to simply just drop a nuclear bomb? i don't think so. he is bound to the shackles of power, there is an ongoing war against isis. who knows what will happen between now and january 20 when he takes office. thank you so much for being with haidi and myself. he is the director and partner at cornerstone associates. up next, never far from our mind on bloomberg markets middle east, oil is dying. there is a hurry and a hurry to do a deal for opec. ♪
♪ tous: welcome back bloomberg. let's get on on conversation. at thisa chief analyst company. the market is within 100,000 market barrels of balance. is he correct? >> may be in this quarter because we are in an unusually high demand season usually. and they may start to balance this quarter. ,n the absence of opec freeze the third quarter will remain unbalanced. we look beyond the near-term balances other than going into next term, seeing if the freeze will not do or the deal will not go ahead as planned. manus: we have got a new
president with a lot of policies for big oil. what do you think it will be? will it be society approach and go for u.s. oil on u.s. sand? will he adopt a new policy? seeingas definitely pro-energy, fossil fuels and united states fossil fuels. he wants to expand not just on extreme but also on midstream following u.s.. but you have to look at what kind of -- it is mostly light crude. can they refine that? they will have to depend on crude oil outside, even if they are producing more. and if they were to push further in increasing u.s. production, with donald trump as a president, even if he tries, it might do less work.
this will only put pressure on us. what is the probability of opec and non-opec doing a deal at the end of the month? very quickly. factbelieve given the there is continuous disagreement between opec and non-opec right for thes is looking less now compared to just after the meeting. we believe prices could fall close to $40 if not lower, if this is a failure of the deal by the end of november. much. thank you so nice answer. the chief analyst. but is it from me in downtown dubai. haidi, great conversation after trump is taking power. what is next? haidi: for now, markets in asia
electiondonald trump's as u.s. president, republicans have claimed a mandate for their agenda to replace obamacare. protesters have been on the street across several asian cities. , decrying theeld president's crude comments about women and attacks on immigrants. a testing is not trump's victory, though. he said he left trump's victory party in the wee hours wednesday morning and that's a bout $1 billion --