Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  November 10, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EST

11:00 am
mark: we are going to cover stories out of china, wall street, and the u.k. in the next hour. here is what we're watching today. right now, president-elect donald is meeting with president obama as americans begin the transition of power. howill bring you a story on data sciences picked up disturbances that would later lead to votes. comparing earlier gains after a rally in the wake of donald trump's win. we will talk to investors as trump dramatically transforms the landscape. and donald trump's victory and the brexit vote has populists setting their sights on upcoming elections. what you need to know about elections in italy, austria, the
11:01 am
netherlands, and germany. we are 30 minutes away from the end of the session. falling in all of these countries now. the stoxx 600 was 1.3% earlier higher. going downward. this is the currency column. the pound is gaining for a second day. initially yesterday, even ahead of the confirmation that trump had won the election, we had a the swiss franc, all rose as much as 2% yesterday but those losses were overturned. money moving into the dollar which it is doing today. we are seeing all sorts of yields rising. yield curves in germany and france and italy on the expectation that we will see quickening inflation, possibly in the u.s. more interest rates hikes. commodities, look
11:02 am
at gold. down by three quarters of 1%. a busy day. the biggest 5%, gain since saturday. it is the biggest engineering company and reported higher fourth quarter -- fourth quarter cash it is announced plans to spin off its health care unit. company's's chief executive, what he has been doing is shifting the company toward energy divisions. in june, merged with spain. the focus is high-speed wind turbines. earlier, by as much as 2.5%. and it morewer now than quadrupled yesterday beating estimates, major catastrophes and cuts.
11:03 am
, theyneral insurance unit have struggled to improve profitability as lackluster growth and record low rates hurt investment income and prices remain subdued in some markets. let's finish off with the u.k.'second-biggest drugmaker. i have to look at the price, down by 4.6%. third-quarter sales fell more than estimated as new drugs failed to make up for increased competition including the cholesterol pill that became its second major product to face to mystic competition in the u.s. in two years. copycat versions were approved by the fda last year. the drugmaker wants to jumpstart revenue growth with a paper on of drugs that harness the immune system to fight cancer. drugmakers yesterday getting a big boost in the hopes that
11:04 am
trump will not be influencing prices. win,though clinton did not they will still have pressure on prices. we have got a bit of a decline across the sector. this is a 2016 chart. we saw a bit of a leap especially yesterday after trump was confirmed. you can see the big european declines,p by 13% but 90 minutes into the trading day, julie, what have you got? for u.s.mixed picture stocks. the s&p and the nasdaq is now turned lower. look at the s&p on intraday us and you will be that trajectory is lower. happening allis of zero line. a lot of it has to do with technology, the so-called stocks
11:05 am
, a lot of these are big winners going into the election. many of them this year have been climbing and many have hit record this year. all of them have but all of them are off sharply today. it is not clear exactly what is going on here. facebook, amazon, all of them down from 3% to 6% here. another weight we the on the overall averages is utilities. this has not changed. technology stocks rolled over compared with yesterday. down but not as much. utilities have been week for two straight sessions. the s&p utilities index versus the s&p more broadly, slumping this down his inflows and outflows from the s&p utilities. etf. are outflows here. a couple of things are going on with utilities. investing in energy as a way of
11:06 am
growth. this option is trump will not be as good for energy. ,he big increase in yields competition with the dividends, that those utilities pay out. is selling off at its lowest since august and down about 3%. we got the weekly inventories number that showed a larger bill than was estimated. vonnie: thanks. let's check in on the first word news. courtney donohoe has more from the newsroom. at the whitemp is house today meeting with president obama to discuss pose forn matters and photographs. his wife melania is meeting with michelle obama. trump and the vice president-elect mike pence will have lunch with house speaker paul ryan. hasld trump's's election led to protests across the united states. thousands marched in new york, los angeles, and other cities. many carried signs saying "not
11:07 am
my president." many are afraid trump will carry out his threats to deport undocumented immigrants. prosecutors have expanded the investigation of corruption linked -- they have questions. the country passes largest company, accused of coursing they companies into donating money. katy perry has pulled out of an extravaganza -- extravaganza. .he did not give an explanation not long after she posted antitrust messages on her twitter account. event,perform at an china's's biggest online day of the year. global news 24 hours a day hour by more than 2600 journalists in more than 126 countries. this is number.
11:08 am
mark: thank you very much. our next guest says donald trump us his victory could dramatically transform the landscape. the chief strategist asset management. thank you for joining us. my favorite story today is the story. stock gurus know better than pollsters in figuring out trump. it highlights a few names. a few institutions said if trump wins, we will see a double-digit fall in the s&p 500. u.s. futures were down by the maximum 5% but it did not play out as many had predicted. why did so many get it so wrong? >> one reason is that investors believe a trump present -- presidency might mean more fiscal easing. it is probably the reason why side.ors see the positive
11:09 am
>> does this change the investment landscape? does the trump victory do that? >> yes. we have to wait and we have to see who is part of the administration. if we see more fiscal easing, it will be a more positive. there are other assets like protectionism. it can be positive. >> before we know what policy is, now it is time to jump in, i am thinking utilities selling off, for example? >> in general, the trump victory tends to support cyclical value stock. that is the most important thing. we like financials. it will be very difficult. it will be a big hit for them. are you changing the
11:10 am
assortment of your allocation at all? >> no. not so much because of growth, because we feel the fed will continue -- we do not see a lot of value especially in the u.s. upside, butotential we first want to see what was happen in the u.s. with the fiscal easing. obviously, the expectation will rise. we're not changing our view. still cyclical. mark: caught between this improving economic actra and the training of central bank liquidity. who are the winners in that scenario? >> the first reaction was maybe the fed would delay a rate hike because of uncertainty. the uncertainty is pretty much gone. the focus i think will be on inflation. we know from what trump has said, his policy would be
11:11 am
inflationary, fiscal easing, for example. that is why emerging markets are suffering. i think liquidity words, profit, it is a mixed environment. modeling in are you terms of the rise in the deficit? what are we anticipating with a trump presidency? >> the deficit could rise up to 6% or 10%. in an economy that is growing, you can imagine the kind of risk this poses for the u.s. when there would be a recession at this point. this is the other sides of the easing. it is very problematic. inflation, we rise. u.k. you are overweight and overweight japan. the u.k. has had a good run. you are still holding onto that?
11:12 am
>> yes, we see more value in japan but also in europe. we are talking about europe and political risk and we really feel there is more to go in the u.k. but we see more value in japan. before yesterday, everyone seemed to be predicting, the markets were telling us hillary clinton would win. how do we price political risk ahead of -- in a few weeks. holland, netherlands, france, and germany. massive political events in the next 12 months. to investors need to adapt to the shock of the u.s. presidential surprise? what we have learned is we tend to underestimate political risk and we tend to overreact after that. what we have done recently was reduce risk in anticipation of the election. i think we want to take our time.
11:13 am
the most important thing is reduce risk to her we should not forget that policy is important. equity is driven by profit. i think we should not forget that. mark: thank you for joining us. asset management. vonnie? thanks. president obama's meeting with president-elect donald trump. that is happening right now. donald trump has entered the white house. we have an exclusive report on the role played by donald trump's team. it is coming up next. ♪
11:14 am
11:15 am
11:16 am
mark: the market close just about 15 minutes away. vonnie: we have our eye on washington dc were president-elect trump is meeting with president obama at the white house. trump is inside and we will continue to monitor and bring you any headlines we might get. an exclusive behind the scenes report, tells o'charley's data team saw a different america with analyst projecting an upsurge and it turns out they were right. joining us now is megan murphy. so paul ryan was correct when he said trump heard something the rest of us did not hear? >> i think some of the people who heard it were in a trump campaign. they have been saying early on in the campaign really taking the brexit dial mantra. he used to say i am mr. brexit
11:17 am
plus 10. among ruralant was areas in america and areas in america that have really felt the job movement away, the closing down of manufacturing, factories moving out, and people who traditionally have their jobs in farming, they had seen the surge not just in the anti-hillary movement but in the tro prompt -- pro trump movement p that is where the voice had been heard. data team actually projected a movement in almost 93 out of 100 scenarios, they were losing. the surgeid see toward him among these communities so affected by the economic issues we were discussing. rhetoric really tapping into the anger. what about that that if turnout have been a few percentage point greater in certain key demographics, we might have a different scenario? >> that is exactly the scenario we are looking at. had they turned out, she would
11:18 am
have been president. it is so interesting. we saw in some states a latino surge. we saw it in nevada and parts of florida but we did not see across florida that she needed to get it. she did not cap the african-american voter even to the point she needed in philadelphia and detroit, milwaukee, madison, areas she really needed to carry those states. it would have made the difference for her. mark: why didn't she get it? they will the issue have to have an autopsy for and look at the messaging. this is what i find fascinating. this was the year of more radical politics on both sides. sanders would be able to galvanize people for a society driven by socially -- socialist type policies, on the
11:19 am
right, you had a trump movement with policies in effect. she did not capitalize on the surge in how she framed her message. incentivizees trump this popular republicanism with the left, diminished but still powerful, the brand that paul ryan and mitch mcconnell are espousing? >> this is what you watch for. way, looking at paul ryan's playbook. he talk a lot about infrastructure and how that would have. we talked a lot about how he will boost job growth. those are straight out of the republican playbook. it is views out of on trade and immigration and how he will secure the borders. these things will need to square up fast.
11:20 am
you look at investors and markets. touchy about most with donald trump is not the core economic framework. it is his foreign policy and whether we will see putting 50% tariffs on china and how we will deal with mexico. that makes the market worry. we will have to get clarion -- clarity on that. vonnie: does this continue to be the thermometer throughout his presidency? him, orle who voted for does that get thrown out now? >> they spent a lot of money building a data machine. it will be important to see the .mpact of the kinds of things essentially a policy blank slate. he has also shown an incredible willingness to be flexible and pivot if he thinks something is more popular or will work better. he will be able to use the data .achine if he chooses
11:21 am
what is exciting for some people about a donald trump presidency in terms of policy, people in the republican party, is he is the influence and can be steered in one direction or another in terms of what they inc. will really achieve their goals. republicans have been waiting for eight years to road test some of the core economic policies particularly on tax reform and foreign incomes, and what they can get on with social security, health here again, that is what they will push for. vonnie: megan murphy. thank you for joining us. you can read the full story about trump's data team in the latest issue. it is a must read and megan will continue to cover this. mark: has megan gone to bed yet? vonnie: i do not think she has. >> i wish. mark: still ahead, how the oil markets react to donald trump's
11:22 am
presidency. this is bloomberg. ♪
11:23 am
11:24 am
we are six minutes away. six minutes from bloomberg world headquarters in vonnie quinn. president-elect donald trump is meeting with president obama at the white house. both men are inside the white house right now and will continue -- we will continue to monitor that. to sayt may be too early how things will develop in the energy sector. energy minister says the oil market rebalancing is in place next year. he told bloomberg television he is not worried.
11:25 am
>> used to calm the -- competition from resource extraction globally. our own oil and gas production for 50 years. with the work that has been done and increaseduce competitiveness, i think we're in a spot where we are well prepared to face competition. there are too many legislative and regulatory hurdles to create a real effect in the market. measurement, but it is based on the state level policymaking. there is a strong drive in the u.s. economy and u.s. companies
11:26 am
for reducing co2 emissions. i'm not really concerned about coal having a huge renaissance in the united states. mark: as we head to the close, five minutes away, look at that. the stoxx 600 down. we were higher earlier by 1.3%. the trump rally did not last long. the rally which pushed up equities and bond yields rising, that was a big move we have seen in the last 24 hours. and bond yields are rising across the globe. this is bloomberg. ♪
11:27 am
11:28 am
11:29 am
barton withark vonnie quinn. stocks finishing and until the last hour or so, they were trending higher down by 1/5 of
11:30 am
1%. the four-day gain earlier with the longest stress -- stretch. we have seen a big move in european bond yields and equities have risen as well. resources could benefit from spending on infrastructure. the president-elect could implement many things. look at the ubs credit suisse. we have seen big moves. the bank index, highest and eight years. credit suisse up as much as 10% since 2011.ill materially outperform european banks especially with trump off his promise of stimulus and tough expectations.
11:31 am
it says it would help credit suisse and ubs, both have exposure. revenues, you translate them back. percent of revenues come from the nine states. , improved cash flow and levels. it says it sees a more favorable regulatory environment for the sector. brokers, asset managers are the big winners from a trump residency pier 1 of the big movers in europe today, shares of by 3.2%. they increased the profit forecast for the year after an extended program to boost efficiency, helped the estimates and is reaping the rewards of the savings program and the transformation under the chief executive. to the company in 2014 after a stint in germany. shares of by 3.2% today. we had macro data airing in the u.k..
11:32 am
buyers increase the number of homes for sale, they continue to fall. it's that a house price gauge, rose to 23 from a revised 18 in september. interestingly, in london, and the blue line. down by a more expensive area. see an increase in recent months. price.ine is a natural london house prices. vonnie, what are you looking at? >> the vix index at least indicating slow. down below 16 right now. you can see it is higher today. the 10 year yield is phenomenal.
11:33 am
up 2.8 0%. 2.00%er bill gross said was a time. a lot are looking at foreign interests at the moment and waiting to see them come in. how much more can levels get depressed? i do not know. 120 basis points, that is 40 basis points in the last days long. it is phenomenal. few a day.a 1.1%, close to 17 on the end. a lot of currencies having the best of days as the dollar strengthens. most here in the united states of america, you can see the nasdaq 100, a sharp reversal -- having not the best of
11:34 am
days. facebook down about 6% of the moment. nothing to undo that if you like. the dow is having a topsy-turvy day, up .6%. the s&p has been higher earlier. facebook dragging the s&p down. 4582 for brent, down on the day. the first alert now for the news. courtney is in the newsroom. >> donald trump discussing the transition with president obama. he knowledged that he and trump have significant differences. trump's first mark in politics by leading the birther movement that questioned mr. obama's nationality. lunch withill have house speaker paul ryan. the victory in the u.s. presidential election could give theresa may more leverage.
11:35 am
strengthasses military and intelligence may be needed more by the european union. on the u.s. commitment to nato. to increaseping treatment to china while it prepares to leave the european union. met today and the british government outlined investment. for the chinese in northern england. lost the minister anticorruption operation. cracking down. newill start circulating ones. dayal news 24 hours a powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in one 120 countries. this is bloomberg. mark: the german engineering giant is making some changes in planning to spin off the $16
11:36 am
billion health care to focus on energy, and other areas. earlier today, the chief executive discussed the plan to london.s >> the announcement that we will take a public health care sector, it is a very timely photo up of what we are scheduled to do in 2020. if you look at the strategy of the company, by 2020, we said one of the care is most attractive businesses if not the most. more successful than it has been already, we want to focus it -- newd make it clear ways of diagnostics and treatment. been in the company as a very sexist company, if you look at the numbers,
11:37 am
outperforming the market and competitors. customers like us, we have great technology and we take it to the next level. logical step of what we have been describing in 2020. execute to operate and as we move along during 2016, 2017 going forward. >> in terms of maintaining influence, how much control would you like to keep you are? at theou look announcement on health care, headlines are going to strengthen the health care business. it means this is something we to control, something we want to bring to the next level to the benefit of all the shareholders. >> so you can will keep control of the business.
11:38 am
plan to keep control? >> we will take the next step. we will strengthen the health care business. and that is of much as we want to say today. we're looking into the opportunities that bring along with us and we will take it on their. >> obviously, markets getting very excited yesterday about the potential for infrastructure care what do they stand to gain under a president trump? >> the american people have voted and made a decision. we congratulate the president-elect, mr. trump and we look forward to working with him and his administration as he
11:39 am
has done with all of the presence of the administration and the united states. we have more than 60,000 people working in the u.s.. the company is by far single biggest in the world. the revenues are about 22 billion u.s. dollars. .here is a big opportunity here when the government and the president wants infrastructure -- mark: joe kaiser. vonnie? up, theg anti-establishment wave in britain on the paths to leave the european union may watch over neck. the new president obama right now. we're monitoring. the white house is there with both the president and the president-elect inside right now. this is bloomberg. ♪
11:40 am
11:41 am
11:42 am
mark: this is the european close. president-elect donald trump and to reason may have spoken for the first time since the election. donald trump telling them the u.k. is a special place and invited the prime minister to visit as soon as possible. meanwhile, the popular surge of the electorate in the u.s. has led -- other countries in its site. in italy, france and germany, among those who will test the strength of the populist wave in the coming months. joining us now is outscored for to lead the european government team.
11:43 am
a little bit left before the italian referendum? is it now in italian referendum rather than on constitutional reform? >> very much so. the one and we have learned from and donald trump has his victory is to expect the unexpected. actually turned the referendum over a relatively up secure and unconstitutional matter, to make governments more stable. he has tended a referendum -- if the polls are be -- to be believed, he could lose this referendum and then we are in uncharted territory. would he have to resign? even if so, who might come out? at the moment, polls suggest it would be the populist five-star movement. there is a lot of way in italy.
11:44 am
mark: in europe in the next 12 months, difficult to know which one to choose. austria, holland am a friend, and germany. they are merely electing a , also, the fourth of december, largely -- it is a very significant election. for what it represents. >> absolutely. and austria, we saw this election, a rather bitter election back and ring. that the far right candidate of the freedom party, there was a court challenge which was upheld. one -- ahaving a real rerun. campaigning in the rural
11:45 am
districts. he is campaigning deep in the heart of enemy territory. that one again, it will be cool to watch because it is the first indication of how it may go. france could well make the most interesting election. the runoff round against whoever turns out to be. many saying after brexit and after the u.s. election result, you just cannot rule it out, can you? >> no. what we have learned from historical precedent is the national front is through to the sexual -- second round on two occasions. ago, in or more regional elections this year,
11:46 am
the national front was defeated soundly at the second round. this time, we just cannot see it and it depends a lot on who is the candidate she is up against. no great appetite for a second term. know.nkly do not >> we do not know about germany or if anglo merkel will run again. say that germany out of all of the nations we mentioned, is the most resistant to populism because of its history? >> yes. nevertheless, we have seen a forly dramatic alternative german politics, specifically open-door --l's policy on refugees. 12 or 13% in the polls and we did some regional elections, and nobody expected them to do
11:47 am
amazingly well. the problem is the coalition building dynamics all the more different so even if merkel were to run and even if she were to ring -- two win, it is not clear what type of government she could perform at the end of that. mark: thank you for joining us. crawford there in berlin. donald trump meets with president obama at the white house today. what kind of president will he be for the markets and business in general? those questions were put to the chief executive of asset management. >> i think he will be pretty pragmatic. a lot of experience with development. he willun and i think surprise on the outside. i think he will be a good president.
11:48 am
>> he will be a good president because of regulation, because he will surround himself with a team. unifys a sense, he's to the country and be good for business. would he do both? >> i think so. i think he will be good for business. i think he will take advantage of the very low interest rates. if i were in that position, i would spend it on infrastructure. that is probably within his dna to do that sort of projects. people in the business community were anti-chump. do you think there will be retaliation? >> i do not think so. a lot of what is said in the election campaign is rhetoric and we've always got to remember that what politicians say and what they do rt does different things. let's forget the rhetoric now and see where he goes from here.
11:49 am
i thought his acceptance speech was very balanced and very fair. >> martin, what does it mean for the markets that we see rally in stocks. do you think donald trump be great for volatility? >> yes, he has been good for volatility so far. yes, i think he will be good for volatility, whether you think volatility is good or not is a different matter. i think he will be good for equities. will bebonds probably under slightly more pressure. certainly for equities, he will be good. as usual, it is choosing the right equities rather than just a broad market. are there any parts of the markets you are concerned about? >> i suppose if you were taking them at a face value, the issues might be protectionism or a
11:50 am
return to more protectionism, because i agree there is no such thing as free market. you have to look at which countries might be disadvantaged by that and which might benefit from it. ,hat is how i would look at it at a country level, on this occasion, rather than a stock level. >> are you worried about china, mexico, emerging markets? >> no, i think emerging markets are doing fine. we have seen sentiment return to positive there. and flows coming back to emerging markets. 70 not on our funds, which are closed. but no, i'm happy with emerging markets and happy with india in these sort of countries. i think the reaction has probably been overdone.
11:51 am
i think given what was said during the campaign of what will happen afterwards, they are two different things. chief executive officer of aberdeen asset management. coming up, it is the battle of the charts here at abigail doolittle takes on vonnie quinn. .nterest rates, a big theme this is bloomberg. ♪
11:52 am
11:53 am
mark: we take a look at some of the most telling and compelling charts of the day. you can access these charts by running the function, kicking things off. >> including the election of dollar job as u.s. president plus the massive rally in stocks . perhaps the biggest surprise of
11:54 am
all relative to financial markets, the 10 year yield going back about 2%. back ins on a chart august, it suggested we could see the 10 year yield back about 2%. maybe 1.5%. suggested they could see the move up. they have moved what confirms what is up next. in 2016, we could actually see yields rate much higher. 2.65% and maybe even 3% as rates backup. mark: you can find that chart? >> you can see it on the bloomberg, 4883. mark: take it away, vonnie. vonnie: i love that chart.
11:55 am
i was trying to come up with competitors we have. you can see the phillies have underperformed. rising,of bond yields people have been investing in utilities, try to get income at a low and negative yield. -- they have been. look. coming out in ways -- in waves. mark: abigail, technical
11:56 am
analysis, 10 year yield, both wonderful charts. to the producer. a different producer today. i cannot choose. it is too close. wins. will go to a third fight. we will have to have you back in the few -- in a few days. take a look at where the equity markets finished the thursday session. up by 1.3% earlier in the day. session, lookthe at the stoxx 600 down by one quarter of 1%. we did see banks rising and utilities falling. bloomberg markets continues. ♪
11:57 am
11:58 am
11:59 am
vonnie: it is noon in new york. david: welcome to "bloomberg markets."
12:00 pm
from the bloomberg world headquarters in new york, from washington to johannesburg, here is what we are looking at. stocks pulled back. investors worry the postelection rally have may have gone too far, too fast. and larry summers shares his advice for donald trump. rallyinge shift from to governing. and helping the federal reserve by increasing debt and spending. there halfway through trading session. let's go to julie hyman. the dow did rally. it did touch an intraday record. at the s&p and nasdaq are languishing here. the nasdaq getting pulled down by technology which we will

19 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on