francine: the emerging market routes even in concerns of capital outflow from weaker trade as commodities and european equities get a boost. bonds extend the selloff as treasuries see their worst week since 2009 on surging inflation expectations. a shanghai bull. trump is to crack down on the world's second-largest economy. this is bloomberg "surveillance ." i'm francine lacqua in new york, roughing up the week where
donald trump has become president-elect. president-elect talks politics with president obama. his transition website gives an indication he intends to stick to his promises on immigration and health care reform. dow jones adding more than 200 points. investors start to draw increasingly bright lines between the perceived winners and losers from a trump residency. tech stocks selloff. the trump slump in the global bond market continues with losses now topping $1 trillion. the emerging markets rout deepens amid concerns about capital outflows. we round off the most dramatic of weeks with our guests in london and new york. anna marshall from the british chamber of commerce gives us the business view. lord norman lamont talks about the future of transatlantic relations. and we will keep you up-to-date with all the markets as
investors find their way in the new environment. let's get to the bloomberg first word news. here's sebastian salek. donaldnstrations against trump's election has continued across the u.s.. police in portland have set a riot is broken. that follows a second night of protest outside trump tower in new york city. former new york mayor rudy giuliani has called the protesters a bunch of cry babies. jens weidmann has urged people to stay calm about the u.s. election results. central bankers did say that uncertainty was weighing on growth prospects. say isonly thing i can that i would first advise staying levelheaded and calm. let's take the newly elected president by his words after his election victory. sebastian: alibaba is on track to smash hit singles they sales record after nudging almost $12 billion around my have way mark.
enlisted scarlett johansson, david beckham, and kobe bryant to promote the spending blitz. leonard cohen, the singer behind hits such as "hallelujah," has died aged 82. he once said he got into music because he couldn't make a living as a poet. canadian prime minister justin trudeau tweeted, no other artist's music felt or sounded like leonard cohen's. canada and the world will miss him. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. francine: thank you. this is my data check on the week of the u.s. elections. overall, quite a selloff in emerging markets. there are more concerns about investors unable to put money in
the u.s. they may face capital outflows and weakening exports as donald trump gets into the white house. the msci emerging market index down 2.3%. vix at 15.14. stocks in europe gaining. look out for the banks because of deregulation. tom keene will look at copper. i wanted to show him the london copper market, gaining 4.7% as we expect donald trump to build more. we will get to the markets in a second. as the shape of trump's white house begins to emerge, investors pick the winners and losers. fors introduced our guest the program. is the us from london dcc director general, adam marshall. here with me in new york, michael mckee.
i want to get into policies but we need to talk about some of what we've seen in the streets. there is one in oregon which we understand is turning into a riot. michael: police have classified that as a riot, which makes it a felony if you are arrested for participating in that. they are hoping that will bring down the level of tension. we are seeing all these protests in all these different cities. in 2012, donald trump tweeted out after president obama's election to a new term, we can't let this happen. we should march on washington and stop this travesty. trump encouraging that four years ago and last night he tweeted out just the opposite, calling people who are protesting professionally paid protesters incited by the media, which does seem to be spontaneous and may helped along by social media. francine: is this going to get worse? we also saw protests largely
peaceful when brexit happened. there's always some people that are very unhappy. does it go to have the president-elect needs to handle this? michael: it does. then may be the key to how soon this dissipates. if he's going to incite people by insulting them, perhaps they stay in the streets longer. the united states is not the kind of place where we are going to see protests continue on a regular basis. it will be interesting to see how long this continues. we hope that it remains peaceful. francine: let's talk policies. what do we know about what donald trump is sticking to in terms of the pledges he made during his campaign? michael: yesterday he reminded everybody that he put out this, donald trump's contract with america, saying these are the things he wants to do immediately, including build the wall, start deporting people, aliens who have committed crimes
, back to their original countries, and cancel visas from those countries if they don't take them back. a lot of things he wants to do that he ran on. as you've seen, global wall street on the equity side is betting he will change. somebody's going to lose here. either the people who voted for him or the people who are now investing in him. francine: adam marshall, you are in london. your members employ a lot of people. is this a plus or automatically a negative for u.k. employers? the initial messages keep calm and carry on. the businesses have been trading with each other for centuries. we've been quite a few transitions of government in the u.k. and the u.s. and some of those have been quite significant transitions. i think we need to wait and see what the new u.s. administration is likely to do. in the meantime, keep doing
business. francine: overall, do you think there's a sense that what a lot of policies will end up looking like is getting to reflate the u.s. economy may be at the expense of european economies, and the way the president thinks his mandate is, construction, which means that may be well spur the u.k. for its competition when you look at various industries they are pointing on. adam: the president has a continent sized market that he will be looking to grow. he has already said that he has a strong interest in trade with other countries while trying to grow that market. he has made comments about the u.k. has a strong affinity. we hope that will translate into a continuation of trade and perhaps some new free-trade agreement or extended free-trade between the two countries. they are each other's biggest investment markets.
for the u.k., the u.s. is the single biggest country with which it trades. it is a very important relationship economically as well as politically. we hope that will be a key plank in their thinking. francine: this is key, mike. it is about the new administration. we don't know who he will choose yet. that will have a huge impact. michael: it is going to be interesting to see who he picks and will take a job in his administration. on the foreign policy side, during the campaign, most of the experienced hands say they would never work for trump. what some of them for the good of the country come back and do that? we not exactly sure who he would pick. for wall street, a lot a focus on the treasury department. steve munchen who used to work at goldman sachs and was trump's finance director, has been the process -- the most prominent name floated for treasury secretary.
yesterday somebody floated the name of jamie dimon. he's the poster child for wall street. he's the most well known banker in the world. if you voted against donald trump -- voted against wall street, how is that going to go down? francine: we've heard that it is so far-fetched that it doesn't exactly play out just because of what you were saying. adam, give me a sense of whether you are concerned that a rise in populism puts business -- does it put pressure on businesses do not grow as much? are we becoming too protectionist? adam: businesses are concerned about rising protectionist trends in a number of countries. not just the u.s. and the u.k. what we would like to see is continuation of trade across borders. it is not governments that trade. it is businesses that do it. governments can put incentives in.
we are in a situation with global growth being a little stagnant. we need to see trade because it is one of the biggest things to promote that growth. francine: adam marshall, thank you so much. michael mckee joined us and at a marshall continues with us through the hour. he's the british director general of chambers of commerce. plenty coming up including business in a very uncertain environment. unleash theirs own political earthquake. we will talk about how trump and brexit will affect europe's companies. trump sends bank stocks surging on the prospect of lighter regulation. then, will trump boost brexit? how will the new american president elect affect the european union as the u.k. plans to exit? we will talk security with lord lamont. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: this is bloomberg "surveillance." we bring you full coverage of the final trading day of this very historic week. the u.s. elections brought on donald trump as president-elect. here's sebastian salek. sebastian: alianza has said profit rose by more than a third , beating estimates. income increased to 1.6 billion euros while the company confirmed the target for the full year. at the same time, pimco had its first quarterly inflows in more than three years. >> it is the first positive
, 4.5w quarter for pimco billion euros, so that is actually, since the tapering started, it is really the first positive. sebastian: esther now has rejected an approach from a belgian rival. the dutch operator said the offer doesn't represent a good deal for its shareholders. postnl having to adapt to declining letter volumes. lloyd blankfein said he's seen a few terrific aspects to the prospects of donald trump asking jamie dimon to serve as u.s. treasury secretary. that came after a report that trump advisors are considering the jpmorgan boss for the position. blankfein said he would be a great treasury secretary.
that is the bloomberg business flash. francine: i like a little bit of tongue-in-cheek. people are keeping their spirits up and humor. salek.so much, sebastian as the world grapples with donald trump's brexit plus plus plus as he said it, his words, not mine, the u.k. continues to work toward the original version. we talk about what impact the u.s. election might have. first let's break down the immediate challenges. adam marshall is director general of the british chambers of commerce. clearly whatvery your main concerns for brexit were. amongst them, finding talent. why is this going to be a problem? certainty, stability, clarity, action. these are things businesses are telling us. they got a little more clarity
on the prime minister's timescale when she announced she would trigger article 50 two exit the european union in march of 2017. there's probably a two-year period until the exit from there. all this gives clarity, as did her assertion that the u.k. would have stability at the time of the exit, so you wouldn't see a chaotic situation. there's still a long way to go on things like tariffs in terms of trade on labor market and eu workforce. there's so many things that still need to be decided. francine: we don't really know what the reality would look like. we don't know what negotiations will look like. has donald trump changed everything for brexit? adam: i don't think it has changed everything and i don't think the high court decision has changed everything either. i think the high court decision has basically given rise to how brexit will take place, either process,liamentary
rather than whether it will take place. businesses are under the assumption that this process will work its way through over that two to three-year timeline. the election of mr. trump could have interesting impacts on u.k.-u.s. relationships and trade. perhaps we can go to the front of the queue rather than be at the back for future trade deals. that would be one thing businesses would be looking at. whatare still looking at the new administration may do in general. francine: what is the one thing you really need to know right now? are your members not investing in key projects because they're concerned about access to the single market? are they concerned about visas or overall trade? if there's one thing you could find out now that would help your members and most, what would it be? adam: it would be telling businesses that the millions of
eu workers currently in the u.k., have a permanent right to stay. these are people who contribute to our economy. they have our businesses be more productive. whether you are in the rural areas where the city of london it self, it is a big issue for businesses. the government shouldn't make it conditional. francine: what do you think the u.k. economy will look like in five years? are we going to be more skewed towards manufacturing? is it going to be more export driven? adam: there's a huge number of different factors in play. i would like to see a u.k. economy where everywhere in the united kingdom has the same level of activity and productivity as london and the southeast. businesses, but we need to see more businesses growing in other parts of the u.k. and providing that counterpoint to london. i think the u.k. will continue to be a major economy.
we have to build an optimistic future. we have to have a sense of national mission, that we want to be a prosperous and productive country. if we say that and developed the policies, we can achieve it. francine: thank you so much. adam marshall, director general of the british chambers of commerce. we will be getting plenty more from him. up next, new york versus london. brexit and trump deal the u.k. a double lanny as the battle between the city and wall street. ♪
francine: i'm francine lacqua in new york. on the week where donald trump has been elected u.s. president, the election has seen bankshares rally on the prospect of later u.s. regulations and higher lending rates. should europe's financial services industry fear the new president-elect? that is the warning in an opinion piece by bloomberg's gadfly columnist. adam marshall is still with us. congratulations on a great piece. overall, the title says it all. you say if brexit wasn't enough, europe's banks now face trump. how ugly can it be for european banks? >> there's a lot we don't know and there are short-term good
benefits to the banking industry. i think this is a real important issue for europe's regulators to watch closely. there are negotiations still going on over regulation that have yet to be finalized. commitmentsobal that the u.s. has committed to since 2009 on global financial sector reform. if you get a huge divide between the u.s. and europe than business could move from london and europe to the u.s. and if we are still squabbling about exit and the derivatives market, that is going to be a bigger handicap for europe. far-fetched to think europe will cool down on regulation? >> i don't think so. the eu is making noises along that line. again, it is about what you've established now and the reforms such as basel four that are still to be negotiated. europe wants to call a truce on
capital requirements, but i don't think it wants to tear up the whole financial rulebook. that is the question on donald trump. francine: thank you so much. we will get back to adam marshall in just a couple seconds. we will talk to him a little more about the parallels between brexit and the donald trump presidency. what does trump mean for brexit? we will be talking currencies. we will also be talking security. there has been a line of thought that says because donald trump is in charge of the white house or soon will be, theresa may has an advantage when negotiating with the eu.
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andview of the commission the member states. and we have to work -- look, what is going to happen to the new american government. how we can go on -- if we go on with ttp. that is the decision of the american -- american administration. francine: that was the german deputy economy minister. he is in brussels with other eu trade ministers to discuss the there of ttp under presidency of donald trump. we bring you coverage of this week in u.s. politics. let's get to the first word news. here is the bastion sarlacc. demonstration against donald trump have continued across the u.s.. police in portland, oregon say a riot has broken out with criminal behavior. that follows a demonstration outside of trump tower.
rudy giuliani has called them a bunch of cry babies. ecb governing councilmember has urged people to stay calm about the u.s. election results are the central bankers said political uncertainty would weigh on growth prospects. the only thing i can say, i would first advise staying levelheaded and con. let's take the president by his afterthe words he spoke his election victory. alibaba has broken its single day sales records. -- despite the nations economic slowdown. the annual promotion is closely watched by the online retailer. the hugelyen, influential singer-songwriter has died at age 82.
he once said he got into music because he could not make a living as a poet and didn't release his first record until he was 33 very the canadian prime minister said no other music sounded like leonard cohen. canada and the world will miss him. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more , i am20 countries sebastian sarlacc, this is bloomberg. francine: will donald trump effect the exit from the eu? will it strengthen or weaken it in its negotiating hand? can the u.s. maintain the special relationship under the leadership of prime minister may and the new president donald trump. joining us from london, lord lamont. a trump election give theresa may and upper hand in negotiating trade with the eu? in athink it will help
psychological sense because donald trump is sympathetic to brexit and the eu will be very worried about the relationship with the united states. in a general psychological sense, it will be a boost. there are obvious differences of the the approach brexit government and donald trump in that brexit actually is about pretrade. opening up opportunities worldwide. on the whole, i think the psychological effect is one that will worry the europeans quite a lot. odd, the letter that the president of the council sent to the american president. i think they are nervous. francine: because they are, would it not be going a step further. if you have a president-elect casting doubts on the u.s. commitment to nato, given the
strength of the british military, even the intelligence of the british military, does it not mean that the eu will have to be a lot more friendly with theresa may? guest: i think what you say about nato -- i was ignoring that dimension, sorry. you are right. be verypeans will anxious to have britain's commitment to nato reaffirmed. they will come under a lot of pressure to increase defense spending. but they will be very anxious. britain, for example, contributes men to the defense it is baltic states, doing it on a large scale. that will be something they will be anxious to continue. theresa may has made that clear it will be part of the negotiation. not just about the terms of britain's trade with the eu, but
also about how contribution on intelligence, counterterrorism, security and nato. do you believe the same, adam? stance,-globalization does it mean the u.k. can be a saving partner for the eu, even if they decide to brexit? adam: i think the eu has always been a bridge between the other countries of the eu and the united states. it just so happens its role there may change to more of a geopolitical one rather than economic. with some interesting -- industries. u.k.nk they u.s., partnership will continue. keeping industries are calm and waiting to see what the new administration's policies are likely to be. there is divergence between what we have heard so far.
on one hand, protectionist. on the other hand, new free-trade deals with countries like the u.k.. deny the factt that the new president-elect has a sentimental relationship with the u.k., and family links. you could play in our favor as we look to future relationships. what are the similarities between a donald trump presidency and brexit? adam: i don't really see any similarities. is an exit brexit after common market after 43 years, a change in the way a country sees itself. the u.s. presidential election is a transfer of power within that country. i don't see similarities. i do see two things coming together at a particular time that will be important from the perspective of business. that neither disrupts our ability to trade across borders or continue to be competitive in
the world. that is why we look to the u.k. government to give us the ability and clarity in the months ahead. francine: you actively campaigned for the brexit. do you see any similarities? guest: i agree with what adam said. i want to emphasize that, because the prime minister has made it clear that brexit implies that britain will be a leader in the fight for open trade. --will be seeking to visit dismantle trade barriers rather than put them out. thatnly real similarity people can see between brexit and what happened in the united states is that both of them were slightly antiestablishment, unexpected. but that should not cause one to put the two together. i want to stress that brexit is ,ot xena phobic, anti-foreigner far from it. it is time to widen the horizons
of the eu, which is rather narrow and protectionist and nationalistic. francine: was the brexit vote against authority? we are seeing a little of that in the u.s. and markets rallying on the fact that we are hoping that donald trump will reflate the economy i focusing on infrastructure spending. will we see the same in the u.k.? guest: i don't think the brexit vote was an anti-austerity vote. there was an element of those who felt they had been left behind in the industrial areas. that was there, but was not the predominant element in the brexit voting, quite the way it was a strong element in donald trump -- vote. u.k., you will see a slight move towards fiscal policy spending, but i don't -- intending is it
to loosen the purse strings in a way that some people are talking about. find the infrastructure spending he announced november, 23rd will be modest. there will be a lot of small projects. maybe the re-announcement of some big projects. that seems to happen on these occasions. happening in the united states and what the markets are saying will happen. that is not what will happen here. look at: adam, when you what the global economy could look like under president donald trump, it is clear that the emerging markets are seeing a selloff. how will that affect your members? adam: u.k. businesses have trading business -- relationships all around the world. the u.s. is the single biggest, and many within the european union that make up the bulk of our trade. the u.k. has tried to improve its -- increase its presence in
emerging markets. a bit of turbulence in emerging markets is less likely to affect the average u.k. exporter that it is other countries that are more exposed to those markets. however, there are systemic effects from concerns in emerging markets. we will be keeping a close eye on that. but it is not an immediate concern. how much concerned you have for a rising town? investors concerned about the what the world economy, foreign policy will look like under theld trump means that benefits are going to the pound, sterling climbed against its 31 major peers. will that hurt the u.k. economy? this was a benefit of brexit, after all. guest: we can't have it every way, can we? the pound has gained a little bit. but there has been a significant devaluation from the pre-exit
level -- brexit level. they indicated they thought the pound was overvalued by 15% or so. we had a huge account deficit. through this phenomenon of the pound falling up to 20%, i don't think it would be a good idea if it went all the way back. we are not in control. i don't think that is going to happen. the pound will probably settle at what will be a sensible level. from the point of view of reducing our current deficit. there is some interesting forecast coming through about -- taking into account the investment account, as well. pastnt account could move -- back to surplus quickly. francine: one other thing i was hoping to ask. are you disappointed by the
slowness of the certainties about the exit? are you worried we already don't know the form brexit will take? honestly, i think this is a lot of nonsense. we do know what the government are aiming for. the government are aiming for the best possible access. code for a treat -- free trade agreement between britain and the eu. they're seeking for control of immigration and combining that with access to the single market , and i think they will be seeking something -- because financial services do not face tariffs, they will be looking at something based on equivalence to get something similar to passport and rights. i believe this is negotiable. you can't expect a government to go into much more detail beyond those headlines because there are lots of things that if they
don't get all they want, one against the other. there are those saying we don't know the details are either being unrealistic. it may be nonsense, but this is what ceos are asking . it is not me making it up. want is clarity on where they can invest and how and in what time frame. adam: the very first thing our members want is for the government to take actions on the things within their control. infrastructure, we would like to -- the firstthe was hinckley, the second was heathrow, the third is high-speed railroad. we would like to see infrastructure projects. these are things the u.k. directly. controls we understand uncertainty around the negotiations and the
process. the best thing they can do is create the best business environment at home. businesses will continue trading if we have that environment. incentives to invest would not be bad either. francine: thank you so much. both, thank you so much for joining us. we will have to get you back soon. stay with surveillance. the trump shakeout. the markets winners and losers of the week of elections. stress theymakers central bank's political independence post trump. still on track for a december hike, how highest political risk? withlk trump transition the former u.s. agriculture secretary under bill clinton. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: breaking news on a deadly attack of the german consulate in afghanistan. that heavilyrting armed taliban militants launched an attack on the consulate in the afghan city. that was late last night or early this morning depending on where you live. it has been injuring a lot of afghan personnel, it has killed six. have been injured. week donald trump's president-elect, it has huge implications for: -- foreign policy and the u.s. commitment to nato. we will wrap up this week and markets. mark: i will look a global stocks and bonds. the white light is capital bonds.
it has risen by $1.3 trillion over a trillion dollars has been added to global stocks this week. most of those gains did come on monday before the election. is how more significant global bonds have fared. the blue line is the bloomberg global aggregate index. global aggregate index which has fallen by $1 trillion this week. only the second time in two decades that has happened. china stock market entered able market today, rising 20% from january. boosting thes lower equity. a huge divergence this week between equities and between bonds, as well. that is stocks versus bonds. emerging-market assets have seen
a slump this week. we are talking currencies and equities. both emerging markets index, the blue line andthe the emerging markets currency index, the white line have fallen this week. four month lows. both down to four month lows. there is fear emerging economies will face capital outflows and weakening exports once donald trump is in the white house. a significant move in emerging-market assets. huge moves among metals. the industrial metal sub index has risen 10% this week. the highest since june 2015. this is on hope that chinese demand will curb and donald trump will boost spending on infrastructure, which will boost the other of copper. 16% higher, biggest gain ever. the best developed stock?
eight, which provides building materials, comes from the u.s.. it all comes back to trump. on hopes of infrastructure spending. i love that chart. i have one later on that -- although there is a lot of copper strength, if you charge it with the peso, the story is not quite that we are going to spend ourselves out of it. thank you so much. next month is a reasonable time to raise rates and he hasn't changed his outlook on the economy since donald trump became president-elect. while the result caught people by surprise, -- >> it certainly breaks gridlock in washington which has been a key complaint of how the economy has operated, at least over the
last six years. that divided government. you don't have divided government. many are wondering what that means or what would happen, trying to assess that. that is natural. let's welcome the former u.s. secretary of agriculture in bill clinton's. michael mckee also joins us now. thoughts int your the second but first of all, what have we learned in the fast -- past four days about where the economy is going? >> we haven't learned a whole lot because we don't know where it is going under president trump. that he plans to cut taxes and spend more on infrastructure. how much and how successful appeal be? many can speak to how difficult it is to get a tax package through congress. but what we do know is that he
plans to increase fiscal health to the economy. ,he one thing we have learned inflation expectations have shot higher over the last couple of days. that is probably what will influence the fed more than anything else. if that continues, we are likely a higher forecast for inflation, perhaps more a rapid rate of race -- rate increases. up.cine: let's pull it this is inflation. you can see, the biggest impact to the economy though -- will be fiscal stimulus. what we see here is consumption expenditures versus deficit in gdp. this brings us back to what reagan did. given the composition of the have said they were against president obama spending more.
what have you learned over the last three days on what the shape of the u.s. economy will be 12 months from now? >> i think it is pretty unpredictable. idea which way trump will go. we have reason to believe there will be a large infrastructure package next year. two reasons. we need it, and there has to be something he does to produce jobs. his whole campaign was about jobs. it was a whole part of the infrastructure package. three, most members of congress in both parties want to see more on sewers and water systems, that kind of thing. i don't know the size of the package, but i think that will be his first big initiative. francine: does it mean the rest of the world will be far worse off? we are trying to figure our -- a donald trump presidency is a good thing. >> i have my own views on this thing.
the american political system is resilient. we have checks and balances, the separation of hours. if the president goes far -- too far, congress will tend to be a counter action. radicalsee anything as as some people see. at least i hope not. that is why the markets have been reasonably stable, reasonably bullish. francine: but will he be able to -- how do you fund all of that infrastructure spending? and will it work? >> there are ways to fund it. you can raise the gas tax. you can set up a national infrastructure bank. we could re-change america's budget policy to have a capital budget. there are ways to do it. mostly the states do it now. federal government doesn't do it. but we have a massive infrastructure need in america. airports, water systems, sewer systems. let's see if he puts his money
where his mouth is. it is the few -- one of the few places where you can produce jobs. does he need to put in his cabinet, democrats? >> yes. clintonought secretary would win and needed to put republicans in his cabinet. he needs political and gender diversity in his cabinet. we will see. i hope he has learned a lesson from last election. ,e have a diverse country demographics are changing, and it would be a positive step to have a diverse. francine: will we know when the next two weeks? >> it would probably take through the month of december to get people in place. he has to convince people to join his administration. when writing came to office, he had business people who had been with him while he was governor of california, had worked for him, raised money for him. donald trump does not bring that to the table.
he is starting from scratch. he says he wants smart business people. we will see who is interested. >> i was a junior member of congress when reagan was in congress. differences, reagan had been governor for years. he had people of great stature around him. he had a wife who was very interested in reserving ronald reagan's legacy. we are in a whole new ballgame now. francine: we certainly are. thank you so much. michael mckee, our economics editor. tom keene joins us. we will be looking at -- fiscal spending and the markets. ♪ francine: the emerging market
equities get a boost. thewipeout, bonds extend sellout as treasuries either worst week since 2009. market and its bear on it. this is bloomberg surveillance. i am francine aqua here in new york. what a week. it's been a week. we are looking at the new york post. tom: for the global audience, this is the summary of the majesty seen yesterday at the white house area there is so much to talk about to give a broader view this morning and you have the new york times. francine: this is very similar. comp and obama meet to break the ice. i wish i could listen to michelle obama speaking to a lot