tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg November 11, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EST
we are moments away from the closing bell. ?hat did you miss commodities tumbling as traders parse the implications of a donald trump presidency for the world's biggest economy. fu. scarlet joe: and i am joe weisenthal. i want to welcome our viewers on twitter. you can watch closing bell coverage of every day on twitter from 4:00-5:00. let's begin with our market minute. the dow turned around and closed at another record high. market was closed. there was no economic data released today. record high, the for the dow is the best since 2011. s&p 500 saw its best week since 2014. after anhtly quiet extraordinary week in world events. nasdaq isg that the
rebounding. scarlet: the volume on the dow was off 39% from yesterday and the dow off 20%. clearly, a big drop off. let's get to equities. in terms of winners and losers, commodits really got hit here. you have energy dragged down by sliding crude prices. some individual names to focus on, computer gamers gave a sales forecast that signaled strong growth in new markets like data centers. that was good for a 30% jump in share price. michael cores had its worst rout in six months. had to pull back from department stores, hurting its outlook. attention to small caps. -- the russell%
2000 closed up 10% on the week, most of the gains coming thursday and friday. you really have to look at the financials. are the kind of names that stand to benefit from deregulation under president-elect donald trump. they believe he will remove some of the regulatory overhang for small and midsize banks. joe: so they say. scarlet: so they say. a big bank at the other end of the spectrum is wells fargo. a three month chart. you can see that wells fargo made up all of its losses. joe: the scandal was real but the accounts were bogus. nevertheless, it's like
it never happened in the stock price. joe: an incredible route across the board and bond markets. this is a chart of the mexican 10 year yield which are earlier 6%, noweek was around yielding 7.3%. the mexican market now absolutely obliterated in the postelection market. maybe some people thought it was a debate once the election was actually over, not yet. it has been taken to the woodshed. no training today on the bond market due to the holiday, but it's at 10 year levels we have not seen. not since very early this year. story in south africa. not any specific trump related trading, but a very bad week for emerging markets overall. variably there. germany, .31 now on the
10 year. it wasn't very long that this was negative. em in developed markets, really bloody week for government debt. scarlet: we will talk about this in just a bit. for the dollar, the biggest weekly game since 2008. central banks from indonesia to india stepping in to stabilize their currencies. the carnage in asia is not really the barometer you want to look at, it's asian currencies. if you come inside the bloomberg, joe mentioned the mexican asset class or all mexican assets being decimated. here is the peso over the last five days. it did the best, i suppose,
against the south african rand. for all the traders out there, you can see that the dollar climbed 9.1% versus the peso and the big winner here was the british pound. the last political freak out was brexit and the pound got sold hard. this time, the pound had its best week in more than a year. it appreciated in value since last friday, which is incredible if you think about the fact that in october it was the worst performing currency. joe: let's look at to commodity charts that really tell the story of the week. silver got obliterated. a lot of precious metals not doing well in a post election environment. a lot of people holding them up. some people hoping to find safety in them, ugly day.
on the flipside, let's look at a one-week chart of copper. this is incredible. the rally faded a bit today, but look at that. we are below 5000 a ton of the start of the week and then hit 6000. gob smacked. perhaps it has something to do with a belief in the demand for infrastructure. scarlet: those are today's market minutes. we are going to take a deep dive in the bloomberg. you are looking deeper into copper. a chart of every one week copper move going back 10 years or something. we actually came off our record highs, but for one point, briefly, it was the biggest weekly gain in the history of copper. we saw in the last chart that copper did selloff a bit during the day. but that's the story. a couple of days in 2011, 28 a
008, but in the wake of donald trump's election, copper had its greatest week in history. amazing what i find about this movie is that it is linked to the u.s. rather than china. usually, it is a proxy for china and the economy, and how much demand there is going to be from china. i'm going to focus on bonds because the election of donald trump was a game changer for global bonds. eric lonergan was telling us that people woke up to the realization that these are not risk-free securities anymore. drop off here in the found you of bonds. more than $1 trillion wiped out.
that's pretty incredible. of course, it's the yields on securities that are susceptible to inflation perceptions. joe: i want to get more on the selloff with the head of strategy at a moke capital markets. o capital markets. as scarlet showed, big bond drop off this week. our people overreacting? >> we are in the process of justifying it. .e are looking to the data we are trying to figure out what the composition of trump's cabinet will be, and that will have implications for whether or not we are able to see fiscal measures go through. we believe the first leg has
gone, and now we are going to define a new, higher yield range. againsteeing it a lot different asset classes. if donald trump is going to go forth with his infrastructure plan, that potentially means more debt having to be issued. the demand is not quite what it has been in the past. is that a sign of things to come for when the government does try bonds? in with security >> we had a couple of things to cover. low security ratios, high tales. the discount that you get for buying it at auction. those are the two key things we primarily focus on. i think it will be a real risk for the next year and a half as an increaseard to in treasury issuance. another 500ably see
billion dollars-seven hundred billion dollars in initiatives, and i think that will be a key onus that puts pressure yields. joe: i have thought for a while that a trump presidency would probably more fiscally liberal than divided government. but we don't really know how the politics are going to play out and it's not that easy to get money out the door fast, particularly infrastructure. currently we are at 4.9 percent unemployment. is all of this a little premature perhaps? isi think the market beginning to get a little bit ahead of themselves. if you see any of these initiatives go through, they will be short-lived. government spending has a short impact on real gdp.
we will be focused on what it means for inflation. >> what is the connection, in your view, between government spending and inflation? >> it's simply re-shifting the way -- re-shifting consumption. think of it that way. it, and, borrow to do we will eventually have to pay it back. scarlet: how does this play out in europe, a lot of it feels like the yield curve is seizing and everyone is selling off treasuries. is it going to play out in the ?ame way >> we are dealing with very specific u.s. risks because the rest of the market is moving in tandem as a function of the fact
that it is such a globalized market. if you look at investable alternatives around the world, you have to say well, i'm going to need a higher yield. was a point made earlier in the show that i think is a valid one. europe is now facing a lot of the same problems we have seen in the u.k. and here in terms of the upcoming italian election. all eyes are on that right now. >> the moves tied to inflation compensation moved pretty dramatically. what does it say that the inflation -- election of trump seems to have done more for this corner of the market than any words from janet yellen or mario draghi? asone of the key criticisms they have not followed through on the fiscal side. it's very inflationary, and i think the markets are telling us that if trump is able to deliver
china.to start with this is a quote from a bloomberg contributor. he says that the problem with trump's approach is that he is overing yesterday's war yesterday's industries. trump'sin relation to on china. he writes, rather than bring will help the he country compete with u.s. companies in the businesses of the future. i know you have been thinking and writing about it. >> it's a very different type of china than barack obama inherited from george w. bush. byis no longer dominated export.
the current surplus the causes so much angst was 10% of gdp when barack obama took over for george w. bush. it's now 3%. it will be 0% by 2020. this is yesterday's war. it is not about t-shirt makers anymore. it's about starbucks. joe: this has been an extraordinary week for markets. i think people that most aspects wrong, whether it was the election itself or how markets would react. take away about how people are viewing the new regime? is a well factor. infrastructure spending he has breakrward has given a for central bankers. he has done what draghi has asked the markets to do, take
plateiscal policy off our . this is monetary policy in effect. we had a plunge and now rates are above where they were before the election. how do you think the fed is going to approach this? fiscal stimulus is what central bankers have been asking for for a long time. it has driven expectations up. will the fed feel like it needs to hike a little faster than it otherwise would have? >> they will approach it very cautiously. don't look for any radical shift when the markets to suggest and policymakers indicate we will get a rate increase. nothing donald trump has said during the campaign has yet become policy. >> i feel like we have to hammer that point home, one, and two,
there were many conflicting on the campaign. >> tighten the sausage at the end. the process of making the sausage -- who knows what going to come out the other end? that is what policymakers will focus on. in december, we will get the famous forecasts. expectations are we will continue to show very shallow rate increases, maybe two next year. and the new rate control will continue to come down. chinat: i want go back to . donald trump used it as a scapegoat for many of the problems the working class faces right now. you brought us a chart of gdp in china and the u.s.. white,se, the u.s. is in china is simply. china is catching up. does donald trump see?
where does he wanted the u.s. to go question mark does he want the u.s. to go up or just see china go down? >> i think every u.s. president wants the u.s. to go up. the great irony on day one is that china is manipulating the currency to prevent weakening, something unforeseen when barack george w. over from bush. does donald trump want a weakening you on? i suspect not. joh: emerging market currencies were gob smacked this week. carry trade's got obliterated as yields went up. will these stay in freefall or will people take a flyer? different there are aspects to different currencies.
think we may be getting closer to a smoother pattern. in new zealand, monetary divergence is really putting more pressure on them in the future. scarlet: why would india -- i thoughtthink people wanted a weak currency. >> it does drive inflation, and that is all part of the picture. scarlet: got it. thank you so much. is much needede after this crazy week. are coming up, investors fleeing emerging market etf's after trumps surprise victory. we are going to look at some charts you can't mess. ♪
joe: president elected donald trump's america first message is already influencing the markets in a major way, and you can see it in emerging market etf's. together a pretty extraordinary and telling series of charts looking at flows since tuesday. what do you see? overarching theme is that investors are leaving emerging markets. they are voting with their feet and that's the place you see it. scarlet: that chart right there shows it. joe: huge up close in the last few days from popular emerging markets. >> yes, and that's 1.5 billion on thursday, the most since 2011.
not that many are green lines that show inflows. if you come inside my bloomberg, we have seen a lot of money go in here, but again, this past week has been a huge outflow in bonds as well. , even after these huge sales, over $4 billion this year, this one got the record. the largest geographic waiting in that etf is mexico. joe: and the dollar funds are really getting hammered, in part because of rising u.s. interest rates. they make the case for going abroad a lot less compelling. >> exactly. kind ofin the protectionist overtures that you have had throughout the presidential campaign, and you
could lose access to the u.s. markets. scarlet: so the fundamentals of the u.s. markets didn't necessarily change. >> did necessarily. your of quantity coming off -- you have quantity coming off. joe: not on copper ore iron ore. some of those have done well. let's talk about the america first side because we saw emerging markets get hammered. is a popular s&p etf that everybody knows. they are surging. that's the most they've had since the markets were snapping back last september after the yuan devaluation. folks are really piling back iso american assets and that more than outweighing the selling you are seeing in these emerging market funds. gotten: financials have
a huge amount of that money. this is the spider etf. you can see the spike right at the end showing you how it goes right into financials because donald trump has said he is going to get rid of all financial regulations and repeal dodd-frank. >> the double where me was the rising yield and protectionism and this is rising yields and deregulation. that is helping financials. if you are in the business of security transformation, that explains the performance of financial etf's. the story charts tell clearly. thank you for putting them together. are goingoming up, we to stay on the emerging markets theme. bonds have extended their route. falling to four month lows. we will discuss this further. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: time for first word news. mike pence with donald trump's transition team, replacing chris christie. trump up reportedly wants to use ence's washington expense to move the process along. members of congress will advise pensece. paul ryan and mitch mcconnell are urging donald trump to select reince priebus as white house chief of staff. they both say he is the best choice. mr. trump's campaign chief is also said to be a candidate for the job.
beice four candidates may seeking to lead the democratic national committee. the boston globe says the dnc vice chairman is considering a run for the top job. former vermont governor howard dean says he wants his old job act. he was dnc chairman from 2005 to 2009 p.m. minnesota congressman keith ellison is expected to make an announcement on monday. former maryland governor martin o'malley says he is taking a hard look at the job. president obama says there were lessons a divided nation can learn from its military as he led his final veterans day observances at arlington national cemetery. he said americans must find strength in what he called our common creed, and to follow being civil of those who serve by being united in what he called our great diversity. soldiers,obama: sailors, airmen, marines, and coast guard who represent every corner of our country, every shade of humanity, immigrant and
nativeborn, christian, muslim, jew, and nonbeliever alike all search.n the common news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: thanks. the dow shrugged off some early weakness, closing higher, another record high, up 40 points, 18,847. the s&p 500 did not extend its games, closing down about three points. rebounding, but volume dropped off from yesterday because of veterans day. weekthe quietest day this from an equity market perspective that still pretty dramatic.
a huge day in copper. scarlet: and it continues, whether it is copper or small cap financials. joe: still plenty of action, including em. an extraordinary week for emerging markets. bloomberg spoke with news markets reporter sid verma on this postelection environment. things, as a lot of lot of bad things for emerging markets, a trump victory. trump represents a clear break in the global international order since his campaign is on a very anti-trade stance. close,rging market as a pretty much for the past 15 years, has been increased globalization, increased trade, lower tariffs, a reduction of protectionism, all bullies of
emerging markets. ys of emerging markets. worries aboutl the short-term, given the fact we have seen a huge global bond to selloff, about $1 trillion in value of global bonds has fallen. joe: we have seen a pretty sharp surge in interest rates in developed markets. u.s., germany. u.s. 10-year yields above 2%. what would higher em yields mean for popular em trades in the short term? verylot, and it is negative. it really reduces the allure of investing in emerging market debt, he cuts it's supposed to offer higher yields to compensate for higher risks. however, if the developed rate market is offering a higher yield, the competitively lower
yield markets will be affected. joe: there is a believe that trump will unleash an infrastructure boom. we do not know if that will happen or not. historically, hard commodities and emerging-market assets often move in tandem. why won't all this demand for raw materials be more beneficial for the rest of the world? >> traditionally, commodities, which have been driven over the past 15 years thanks to china's commodity import demand, has been a real huge beneficiary for emerging market economies, from south africa to brazil. this time it seems to be different. -- commodity import manned demand gets to the u.s. rather than china, there is a u.s. growth impulse. be negative,ly because it means that emerging
market nations are not necessarily driving the growth. joe: image and china, and of course, trump talked a lot about china during his campaign, and often antagonisticly. the we seen anything in markets yet next week, or what do we expect to see, when we start to see ramifications from trump on chinese financial markets? >> well, we have seen hat he will, leaks tah formally brand china a currency manipulator. the practical implications of that might be lower than the symbolic implications. it is not clear whether it will have a big short-term impact. it might just mean chinese goods thet have a lower role in procurement government process in the united states. the big question is, what will happen to the renminbi?
there has been significant weakness in the currency over the last couple of months, and that really could intensify, which would be exacerbated if china's currency is depreciating at a time when trump has argued on the campaign trail that china has boosted its exports through currency. verma.at was sid scarlet: coming up, could the trump era begin for democrats? we will explain how that might come to fruition. this is bloomberg. ♪
fu.let: i am scarlet upset andfter the donald trump winning the election? our guest is joining us from atlanta with more details. and where also joined from our bloomberg reporter on politics. you said there is a clear political cycle at work, and it could be that a trump white , a republican having controlled congress might lead to gains for the democrats in 2018. noweah, where we are right feels a lot like after the 2008 election where republicans were wiped out up and down the board. for while, they had 60 votes in the senate. what happened was, first come in 2009, there were given editorial elections and republicans won, chris christie about mcdonald. in 2010 after the passing of
obamacare, there was a huge republican tea party wave the start it to shift the balance yet your deck could be what the next two years could look like for democrats. joe: that would imply we would see some sort of an emergence of a democratic tea party, something much more ideological, left wing. in your reporting, doesn't look like that is beginning to emerge as the new face -- does it look like that is beginning to emerge as the new face of the party? it does look like there could be a shift to the left. bernie sanders and elizabeth warren, keith ellison. it is gaining a lot of momentum. sort --s are still trying to sort through this wreckage and find out with a screwed upo badly. people like bernie sanders, who had a different theory of how to appeal to voters primarily on the basis of socioeconomic class
are gaining traction. democrats have a lot of thinking to do. there are indications that, at least at the top levels of the for which is in line significant changes. in congress, chuck schumer is prepared to take over the democrats in this and appeared indications are that nancy pelosi is not going anywhere in the house. scarlet: bernie sanders, chuck schumer, nancy pelosi, names we have been dealing with for decades now. the problem for democrats is they do not really have any young talent in the pipeline. even elizabeth warren is not some one you can count on to be there in 20, 30 years necessarily. right, it is sort of a generational transition we have been going through. republican sort of had a transition from baby boomers to gen x. due for that
democratic wave. it is likely to start in 2018. joe: something interesting was brought up, which is that the bernie sanders wing of the democratic party once to appeal to people more on the basis of economic class as opposed to racial or gender identity. it does not necessarily feel like that is where a lot of the left is it isn't that going to be kind of a problem in terms of creating the new democratic movement if there is a big split ideologically, even among the far left? you can both answer. >> it is a difficult balance to strike, because democrats have what is known as a rising american electorate. latinos, hispanics, and their owns who have unique challenges, as well as african-americans. yes, the democrats have to continue to speak to them. what went so wrong in this
election is that democrats were absolutely decimated among white working-class voters, and democrats thought it would not be a big deal and they would not lose what they already had. yes, they have to find a way to win back these folks. their current messaging really did not work with them, and that is why they have to try to reach them. they have to do it on a tear he of their economic struggles. a --the tea party was everyone got behind that in the republican party in 2010, essentially. aren't the democrats going to have a harder time re-creating that magic? >> the party establishment fought it in both cases. instead of listening to the gop autopsy reaching out to young people and hispanics, they doubled down on the core message and won over the working-class
whites. what could have a for democrats is maybe the same thing. might bein a graphic in places like suburban atlanta, where i am right now, in a county that is rapidly diversifying. instead of going back to michigan, maybe it is the suburbs of atlanta and houston and dallas, places like that. scarlet: president obama's progressive agenda might be in the process of being dismantled over the next couple of years. president-elect donald trump singled some flexibility on obamacare in an interview with the wall street journal. what did we learn here? >> donald trump said he's open to keeping certain parts of obamacare off of the affordable care act. republicans have spent the last repeal and replace it or they say they want to eliminate every word of the affordable care act or trump up
suggested he wants to give two the most popular components, the ban on discrimination against people with pre-existing conditions and letting young adults under 27 stay on their parents' plans. a number of republicans in congress realize these are popular in want to keep them. the problem is how to do this economically. you cannot guarantee coverage for sick people and not have an mechanism to bring younger and help pull people get into the pool to help with the spiral of rising costs. so that is the big problem republicans have. they have said they want a diet of all sugar and no vegetables, and you cannot do that without some of those components. have acans have to policy level with health care that they have not had yet. scarlet: with the affordable care act, how much do you think they are factoring in what
normal trouble do on it? we have seen financials and infrastructure companies. do they have any direction when it comes to health care? >> i think it is a knee-jerk response assuming that a truck era will have less pressure on companies. you are talking about a guy in his 70's with a coalition that is older, as well. it is not hard to imagine that tom: will reach out to bernie sanders. i think the market is getting ahead of themselves in terms of what will happen in health care. joe: obviously, you cannot talk about trump pose it platform without talking about immigration. the wall was the most consistent policy playing from the beginning. does it look like they will really pursue the wall? >> every indication from donald trump and his companions of our is he intends to make good on his promises and engines to build a wall and cancel the president's executive action and beef up border security. the big question is, is he going
to get the money for it? can he find the money in the department of homeland security? seems doubtful with it being billions of dollars. paul ryan was asked about this yesterday, and he said he is in support of physical barrier that he stopped short of flat out endorsing the wall. that is a big question. one thing we have not heard from president-elect trump since he won the election is he is going to try to make mexico pay for it. joe: thank you very much. we are going to be talking about the federal reserve and the market implications of the victory. this is bloomberg. ♪
donald trump is a critic of the federal reserve when running for president. what will he do once he is in office? our bloomberg columnist is still with us to figure this out and put on your per volume manager had for this conversation. donald trump has been all over the map on assets of economic monetary policy. obviously, the markets had a pretty decisive reaction to his victory. what are your key takeaways from what we have seen so far, and what will you be looking for on the eco and monetary policy front? to hitrubber is going the road in 2018. 2017 will be figure out what kind of stimulus he wants to have. as he pointed out earlier, it takes a long time to pass through. between what we are seeing in housing, continued improvement, close to full employment, by 2018, we should start to see inflationary pressures of they
emerge. and that is also in janet yellen's term is up. the question is, how will she handle the trump stimulus, and if she fights it on the monetary side, what will trump do in terms of replacing her? scarlet: we spoke with an economic advisor earlier today, judy shelton. we asked about the future of the fed and whether or not janet yellen would stay on. she cannot imagine why wouldn't. i mean, it is her option or the fed is independent and will remain independent. scarlet: so the fed is independent, but there are some appointees or some names that he could throw in the place of janet yellen. and we also the vice chair toss nomination coming up, too, right? joe: yes. scarlet: we know that donald trump is the ultimate pragmatist. does pragmatism mean you keep on ?anet yellen >> their two open seats on the governors are
presumably, those will get filled. who will they fill governors ths with? what will the people look like? bush appointed bernanke. maybe there will be a similar thing here. he will appoint some of the on the board, and if he is happy with that person, he will appoint a person to replace janet yellen in 2018. jump up with a sectors, we have seen pretty dramatic reactions. banks have been surging, perhaps for two reasons. one, the steepening yield curve. the other being hope that this idea that there's going to be de regulation of the banking sector . do think investors are getting ahead of themselves thinking they already know what i trump administration policy will look like? >> absolutely. right now is like when you first love -- fall in love and you see what you want to see. we have really no idea what he is going to do.
it is between the stimulus and reducing trade and immigration. outside of that, we do not know what he will do. scarlet: there is a line from 16 candles, the dad tells molly ringwald, that is why they call it a crush, it really hurts. joe: thank you very much for joining us. scarlet: it is time for the bloomberg business flash. donald trump's transition team is scaling back expectations of repealing dodd-frank, according to the wall street journal. they say the team plans to folks on rolling back the most disliked provisions, such as the financial stability oversight council's ability to name large nonbanks as systemically important and subject them to more regulation. it was another record-breaking singles day for alibaba. cells reached $17.7 billion, easily beating last year's record total. single day is dust singles days
the biggest online shopping day of the year and china. chairman of alibaba says they u.s., eu, andthe japan and the future. mark zuckerberg is pushing back against the idea that fake news on the social network and influence the u.s. presidential election. he said that echo chambers are not really a problem on the site. some critics said facebook let false information run rampant on its site and amplified the voices people wanted to hear. that is the bloomberg business flash. perhaps mark zuckerberg shall he get my newsfeed, which is basically a bubble. joe: a lot of people are avoiding their own news feeds right now in the wake of the election from everything people are saying. coming up, what need to know to gear up for next week. this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: "what'd you miss?" the u.s. stock market making a bit of a comeback, at least for the dow. it was down earlier for the day but closed at another record high. joe: i think the dow was up all five days this week. scarlet: and the snp 500 almost got there but finished slightly lower. the drop off in volume was notable. all right, next week you have walmart, home depot, and a chinese khamenei reporting results. a lot to look forward to on that front to jump up and a slew of and him and data next week. u.s. retail sales, housing starts, cpi on thursday. we will see if the inflation pressure continues to brew. scarlet: inflation expectations have been rising. and president-elect trump up will be meeting shinzo abe on
john: was all due respect to chris christie, don't worry, you can still bring donald trump to mcdonald's. ♪ john: the democratic party contemplates its future and the world loses a musical genius. but first, contemplating an insider cabinet. donald trump was hold up inside of his skyscraper. inside, in addition