tv Best of Bloomberg Technology Bloomberg November 12, 2016 11:00am-12:00pm EST
♪ emily: i'm emily chang in this is the best of "bloomberg technology" where we bring you the top interviews. market saw a big lefty after donald trump one the white house. we will map out how the industry is planning for the next four years. what a trump residency means for issues and tech from global privacy to u.s. immigration policy?
chinese internet companies facing the reality after donald trump's surprise victory and alibaba has the most to lose? we will hear from alibaba's president? market reaction following the presidential election? we have seen the biggest reversals in market histories? dow ending just try of a record close? a handful of stocks missed out on a rally? facebook shares dropped? . we broke it down with an analyst and a global head of tech coverage. knowson't think anybody with confidence. him who admitto they don't know what he believes. it will be an interesting four years. the republicans won at all levels in the government.
we should see less taxation and less regulation. improving flexibility for tech startups is the highlight. there should be a degree of freedom we have not seen in a while. emily: a lot of uncertainty around policy initiatives. he said he would block the at&t time warner merger. the paradox is that he hasaigned as a paradox, and surrounded him with pro republicans. he said that apple needs to bring manufacturing back to the u.s.. these aren't things in the president's control. he also talked about lori the
corporate tax rate. lowering theabout corporate tax rate. emily: apple shares ended slightly up. you said trump could be good for tech companies. if we get the tax repatriation, it helps tech companies. apple has more than $100 million stashed outside of the u.s. you look at large tech companies, but they probably have more than $1 trillion stashed outside of the u.s. it goes into investing in the business. it will go into buybacks and m&a. there will be a lot of companies that can get more money back into the country. you can get buybacks, which investors like, which can help stocks. you can get more dividends.
there was somebody who double down on donald trump. take a listen to what peter thiel have to say about why he supported donald trump. listen up. don't support the specific language trump has used, but one thing that should the media always takes trump literally. a lot of the voters vote for tromp take him seriously, but not literally. commentster thiel's about taking tromp seriously, but not literally. you had so many people in silicon valley coming out attacking donald trump.
reid hoffman said it would be a disaster. tonight, we cry, we spare -- we despair, what this is need for the relationship between silicon valley and the white house? >> donald trump is indicative. -- donald trump is vindictive. picked up on some of the fears about nixon's retaliation. there is no doubt the trump administration will retaliate. a lot of tech companies went out on a limb beyond what a normal fortune 500 would do. emily: jeff bezos, -- --there is a reason why
interest of wall street is very different than a democratic party. technology companies cannot take partisan opinions without consequences. emily: eight years have been have been spent-- building a bridge between the white house and silicon valley. that bridge, the smoke is rising. [laughter] your credibility as a venture capitalists depended on the photograph of you and president obama you had in your office lobby. donald trump does not even have e-mailed. --the future of all of those initiatives are in doubt in the community has to get serious. maybe a trump administration does, too.
emily: he worked with him for many years. -- you worked with him for many years. thiel rebuilt the bridges with all the people who despise the decision he made? >> right now, he will look like a genius. he took an asymmetric bet and will pay serious dividends. he does not see himself doing that. >> you want to say that to you get nominated. [laughter] emily: didn't he work for someone else? >> chairman of the fed, treasury secretary. i think you would accept them. there are a lot of people who own them a lot in washington. you take a controversial bet,
and you get paid. emily: what does this mean for jobs? the tech industry has been blamed for eliminating jobs. donald trump is saying coal miners, don't worry. at the techok companies, if you have jobs on the cutting-edge of the technology, they are still in the u.s. it all depends. repatriation will be very good for the industry here. [indiscernible] some of these decisions related to giving tax relief in the country could create jobs. that would be good for the industrial. analyst.at was an
still to come, the presidential election said record traffic through social media sites, but facebook and twitter have been blamed for the rise of political devices. more on that story ahead. plus after a presidential campaign with privacy concerns, what is to come under the leadership of donald trump? we will talk global privacy and security. this is bloomberg. ♪
turns out one of the biggest losers of the campaign was polling. almost all of their pollsters predicted models that hillary clinton would stroll into the white house. popular polls show clinton with a 73% chance of taking it all. that was one of the more conservative assessment. how did data get it wrong? >> there were two types of the failure on the data front in the selection. in the polling -- the polling model missed two big groups of voters. one was the secret trump voters. those were people who basically are going to support trump, but in response to the moral shaming by many on the other side saying
if you support trump you are a bigot and a racist, they did not want to admit it. the second type of voter they missed were those who were invisible because they had not participated in politics because he did not believe any vote would make a difference. those for the new trump voters and voted with the first time believing he was a different kind of leader who could shake things up. the other big failure was the turnout. that was the real heart of what went wrong at the clinton campaign. they had this sophisticated data-driven machine to turn up the votes in very, very specific ways and places. turns out that if you don't have a message and a leader people really believe in, all the sophisticated data won't get you the results you want. emily: steve, do you think some of those voters were on ddit? reddit.sure they are on if you spend any time on their
in the last year, the results were not surprising. we have a lot of users that support both candidates, but the users for donald trump were very much more engaged than other users on our site. we saw on average, donald trump supporters. voterswice as likely -- -- supporters voted twice as likely. democrats have a superior marketing machine, but the product is not as good. emily: how do they make sure this does not happen to get -- how do they make sure this does not happen again? almost every election you see this going on with the polls. they got it wrong this way and that way. for the reasons you give, the way people are engaging in
society, they are much more fluid interviews. i wonder whether the whole thing is out of date? one thing i would say is there is a way of looking at the failure of the marketing machine. in a positive way, not in terms of the outcome. world not do go to a about grinding out the vote through sophisticated targeting and a mechanistic approach, but forces candidates to really inspire people and to develop a plan that people really can believe in and not just relying on these data-driven techniques. that may lead to a healthier political system. --brexit was aas concern about jobs and trade similar to wipe trump got elected --similar to why trump got elected.
tesla was a huge company created by immigrants. trumpoes the election of need for immigration and silicon valley? election willhe cause more immigration been a relaxation of immigration. ago,u go back a decade there was a lot of pressure to hire immigrants from out of united states. from -- for a variety of political reasons, a lot of democrats link it under comprehensive immigration reform. you will see the two policies resplit back apart. they will allow people with skilled degrees to emigrate to the united states. then there will be a controversial conversation about low skilled immigrants. emily: doesn't the president want to restructure the visa
program for immigrants? >> one of the dimensions that we compete is on talent. we need access to the best talent that exists in the world. we ha lost candidates because of the process. i know it is -- that is an area we need to do better. emily: what are your thoughts for someone who has worked in the u.k. for many years? >> this is something we wrestle with because the impact of immigration on working people is tough. that is a serious thing you cannot ignore because it then offense particular parts of the -- because it benefits particular parts of the economy. i heard him talk about the craziness of educating people like it stanford.
--like at stanford. although it is not clear about the direction, there are rounds for optimism. emily: we kept the conversation rolereddit ceo and got the on social media on the election. >> what technology does and has done is removed the will of gatekeepers -- removed the role of gatekeepers eliminating travel agents to eliminating other third parties. that get in the way. media does not have the role to screen and filter whether they do it on reddit or twitter. will change the conversation because the people who used to control the conversation and structure the conversation was in and out of bounds and does not exist anymore and that will change the rules of the road.
this is not unusual. when i was in history class, we will talk about the next-kennedy debate in 1960 and how kennedy nixone election because sweat it too much during the debate. anytime you have a new platform, people who adopt that platform or not adopt, will thrive or suffer. if you are seeing the first social media -- you are seeing the first social media president. emily: the argument is that facebook is making more editorial decisions. saw one article that said facebook is harming our democracy and they should admit. it if you think about the fact that so much of the news we see via facebook and they prioritize that information, they have an algorithm built by humans and engagedat people are with, sometimes it is misinformed and wrong or inaccurate.
much as 10% after the company said it is recalling 2500 updates new drones. a small number of devices have been losing power midflight. gopro said no injuries or property damage have been reported and customers can't return them for a full refund. the recall deals another blow to the company's dem prospects for the holiday season. after months of campaigning, donald trump overcame ought and became the 45th president-elect of the united states. with a position comes number of responsibilities, including control of the an essay. presidential campaign filled with hacking primarily focused on the democratic party. keithwhite joined us with to discuss what privacy and cyber security will look like under president-elect trump. take a listen. , we can take ais
deep breath. there will not be an anonymous amount of change. he wants to put a passport in place to look at issues. that can be expected of any candidate. the second is there could be more offenses activity. that is the one we need to watch , especially post russia. there has been retaliation as of late. had weekend access to their infrastructure. we gotstion is -- that access of his infrastructure. emily: the u.s. is going to have russia? [laughter] >> what has been reported in the press is that the u.s. has tried to retaliate. transpired with the wikileaks, the question on the
is how will he you cyber offense? that is an interesting question. emily: do you worry for your safety, for our safety? >> i do. if you look at presidents before, president nexen abused some of his power. fans.will be some there has been a lot of democrats and liberals that have been ignoring the concepts of the constitution and limits on executive branch. president obama has pushed far on that dimension. there will be a consensus to pull back, which is a healthy thing. emily: let's talk a little bit about russia. latimer putin congratulated trump on his win. how much do you think the hack and the wikileaks affects the outcome of the election?
>> i will stick on security. factwas interesting is the the security like service permit with an organization such as wikileaks to disclose information. emily: and got away with it? that is where the speculation comes in. what we should focus on is what that means going forward. that is what we will continue to see. ciber will be used as a tool. people are being targeted inside organizations to take sensitive data. the reality is somebody that is internal has access. that is what we saw with the john podesta leaks. that can happen more and more. emily: the u.s. relationship with russia has been tense.
keith, what do you make of a potentially friendlier future? >> i am not sure being friends with russia is a good idea. i will probably be accused of mitt romney in 2012, but there are bad ideas and someone needs to stand up to them. emily: could trump force companies to handle more personal data? be more to more pro-law-enforcement. he could be much more aggressive going forward. there are other branches of government that need to be engaged to enable him for him to be more aggressive. he would have to get a subpoena to gain access. idea were studying encryption comes in. ,f all the priorities he has changing the way encryption is
emily: welcome back to the best of "bloomberg technology." i'm emily chang. shop-athon that dwarfed black friday and cyber monday in the u.s. the event has become a barometer of chinese consumer sentiment offering clues on the chinese economy. investors took notice. alibaba'sup with president michael evans from zhejiang china. michael: it is highly unlikely will will continue to grow 50% each year with the numbers becoming so large, that would be
very difficult to do. we are at least 30 plus percent higher than last year and we will end up between 17 and $18 billion. that is against the 9% -- eciation and the arereal opportunity is we penetrating 10% of the china retail market off-line online. there is his potential growth in the china market. we see substantial further opportunities for growth in the future. trump president-elect says he will end trade agreements around the world. urged not to adopt an isolationist concept. what when a trump presidency and
some of these policies he is indicating, what would that mean for alibaba and for china? michael: i approach this from a fairly pragmatic standpoint. china is a great country and great- and the u.s. is a country, that is coming from a canadian. these are the two largest economies in the world. for them to work together is what will be necessary, not only for the benefit of the two countries, but for the rest of the world. i am highly confident that is the direction of both countries will head. emily: they said trump's policies may pose a threat to how about the and all of the -- pose a threat to alabama and all of the chinese tech markets? emily, weemember, don't sell that much product into the u.s.
if you want to know who the number one beneficiary is, the u.s. has the largest number of brands that are selling products to the chinese consumer and to other consumers around the world. number one ahead of all other countries. it is hard for me to understand or imaginary reason why we would not want that to continue. , greatreat for branch for retailers like macy's and costco. it is fantastic for job creation, wealth creation, and all e things that trump and many presidents are focused on. emily: the sec has been looking into single's date data that you posted last year. how are you changing your accounting practices as a result of that? michael: we are not changing our accounting practices. we think that the way we present our numbers, whether it has been single's day, or our regular reports, are accurate and
accordance with the rules and regulations. the sec sent us a letter and we are fully cooperating with them and improved our disclosure because investors found it useful. we feel very good about what we are doing. people have asked us, how do we slash 11 --11 11/11. we record the sales. any recorded sales becomes -- that generates is in the numbers. we follow the procedures put in place. we feel very good about our numbers. emily: mike, you are the guy in charge of increasing alibaba's global presence. any chance at single's day will be held outside of china as early as next year? michael: jack was asked a few minutes ago when he was addressing a chinese media.
he said that at some point, we are expected to do that. but we have a huge job to connect so many great brands from developed markets and around the world. as you know, one of my big focuses, is the rest of asia and southeast asia. i will take many years to accomplish. emily: that was alibaba president mike evans from sin jane, china. coming up, our conversation with bob iger. and all episodes of "bloomberg tech" are streaming. check us out. this is bloomberg. ♪
disney's ceo bob iger. take a listen. 2014 in 2015 had been record years for us. we continue to grow the company at a robust clip. the two biggest things we had to accomplish and fiscal 2016 is bring "star wars" back. one came back since the acquisition of lucas and then it was a gigantic success. third-highest grossing movie of all time. critical success as well. the second thing we had to do was open up the biggest, most ambitious project we ever embarked on, building disneyland in shanghai. on june 16, and proud to say that after four months, 4 million people visited the park d ey are loving what they have experienced. park inpects for that
the most populous country in the world are really bright. biggest investment we have made outside of the united states. it shows that it is a great product, very entertaining, very original and being very well received. first four months, 4 million visitors that included the peak summer months. we sat on a call that people could infer that it should result in about 2 billion visitors for the first year. we would be happy with that number, but we are not providing guidance there. what be can save 50% of the people visiting come from outside of the shanghai region. that is a big surprise to us. we thought it was going to be well above 75% initially that came from shanghai. the fact that it is so balanced leads us to believe that word-of-mouth on this and the well beyondsit from shanghai is very, very high. this has become suddenly not a local product, but a national product in china.
a national tourist destination, which is what shanghai is. that is really positive. david: one of the strengths of your company is the range of assets you have. if one starts to hit or miss, you have another one. the media networks have gotten a lot of attention. frankly in part because it is so successful. there are questions about the subscriber levels for espn and reduction in the subscribers. bring us up to speed on where that stands and at what rate are you losing subscribers and is that continuing? openwe have been eyes wide about what is going on in the television business overall. we have seen a lot of disruption and people are consuming tv on new platforms in very different ways and in new places. mobile has become important. we were candid a year ago about what we had been seeing regarding espn's subs. we were seeing losses coming
from cable light bundles. embark on ae would campaign to make sure espn was included in any new light bundles that lost and we had been quite successful negotiating deals with distributors and a lot of new distributors to make sure that espn is included in the new packages that are coming out. we are heartened by one slight update meant in the loss of subs due to light bundles. thethe launching due to digital platforms that are but a great user interface and are very mobile-friendly. sports isat live really popular. there are challenges due to some of the disruption we have seen, we believe there are solutions and answers to some of the questions people had about what is going on with espn and
we feel good about our prospects. at&t-time warner deal, the old question about do you need to own distribution is brought back. turn. does disney need to on the distribution of the digital platforms are not? bob: it is interesting because i look at the at&t slash time warner merger as a distribution company needing to own content as opposed to only distribution. i will not comment on whether those synergies worker not. to me, it echoes what we have seen, you have seen and i have seen is that content is king. on a distribution platform and don't have great content, you better figure that out because the consumer is interested in content. what we would like to accomplish and is a great opportunity, is how do "it to
our customer? there are tools that exist today that mine user data that do two things -- improve the user experience, personalization, more tailored and more contextual programming. and it also gives the owner of the content and opportunity to monetize under more compelling circumstances. madef the reasons why we an investment is we like to play of vamp tech -- like the player ech is headed we can grow our business and we will continue to look with an open mind at those opportunities. we have to own distribution? not as a company. we are doing quiet well without it. would we like to have the kind of distribution that solves the problem, or provides us with the opportunity that i just described? yes, we would. david: one of your strengths is
going to scale. you mentioned the camtek investment. alone enough to take you to scale, or do you need something more to take you to scale in this new distribution area of digital? bob: very good question and don't know the answer to that. it is a start and a step in the right direction achieving scale. if it gets us to the scale that we need or not, it is premature to answer that question since we have not lost the espn-branded product. david: this has been a remarkable week because we elected a new president that surprised a lot of people. it is early going, but i know the way you plan ahead. what are your first thoughts about how a president trump could affect the walt disney company? so far so of all, good in terms of what i will
call transition, even though it is very early. president-elect , i was going to say the candidate, but he is the president-elect and president obama have approached this really smartly. the court will, the open, understand that the most important thing here is america, not one party or another or one ideology or another. let's be gentlemen about it and that is what they are doing and that is great for the country. for the country to see that, that instills confidence in our country and faith for the future. even if your ideology is not represented in the next president of the head of state. i like what i am seeing so far and i think the country is reacting well to it. david: you are a student of the meeting and lift your entire professional career in the media. it is not too soon to start asking ourselves the question of the role of the media and the selection. it strikes me that this is a very different media and existed
even four years ago, certainly eight years ago. donald trump took full advantage of that, both in terms of being able to get access on the cable channels, but also on social media. is the media starting to think about its role future elections, and what role it should be playing? there is a lot of hammering about the media this week and its rolling in the election. i think that hammering is missing the point, and the point it is missing is the media today does not look like the media of yesterday. we are living in a world where the sheer definition of media, what am not talking about the industry creates, but the definition that the people create, is extremely different than what it used to be. what we consider news? how information travels and how fast it travels. it is vastly different.
i would argue that the media actually played a positive role in this campaign in the sense that it was ever-present, which media is today, sort of eyes on, cameras on, voices about everything that went on. everything was exposed. everything was subject to scrutiny by the new media. that cannot be a bad thing. did the media get it right in terms of predicting the outcome? no, and i think that deserves some scrutiny by the media. how did they get it wrong? but i don't think the manner in which the campaign was covered is necessarily something that deserves criticism. you cannot waste be reflective about it, that is fine. there is nothing harmful about that. what is media today? it does not look anything like it did five years ago, 10 years ago. when i started my career at abc, it is different. it is time those that follow the
media from a critical perspective except the fact that the media they are following today is vastly different than the immediately used to follow, or maybe they think they are following. david west and interviewing disney's ceo bob iger. one-stop advocate of those from donald trump win is spread. -- sprint. president-elect trump be in charge of nominating new leaders and agencies like the fcc and justice department, which had favored a four player wireless market in the u.s. and have blocked sprint's merger with t-mobile. still ahead, our interview with blackberry ceo john chen and his thoughts about a trump win means for business? this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ emily: the alternative energy saw a drop after the election of donald trump because trump is a long time climate change denier that is about to undo clean energy initiative by president obama. tesla shares slid off along with some power one week before city shareholders approve a to be in dollar merger. this has figures tech and reacting to what it trump presidency might mean for the sector. i had a chance to sit down with blackberry's ceo john chen and half moon bay, california and ask what a trump win means for blackberry and for business. listen up. john: this came out of nowhere. the reaction is, it is pretty shocking. emily: what does it mean for
blackberry? business? optimist, so i look at it from a good side. it is reality. it happened. so we need to make the best out of it. trump -- nobody knows what he is going to do next. trump is really for pro-business and a small government, less regulatory, it'll actually be good for not only the tech industry, but for banking and many different industries. i would suggest that it depends taps is people to support him and surround him, and i hope they are moderate. emily: i know you are a registered republican and you worked with bush for a while. and you are an immigrant and
decided that you could not vote in the end. it but who did you vote for. john: i remain truthful to the fact that being an immigrant, it was problematic. given that so much of the technology industry is built on immigrants and skilled workers who come from other countries, how do you think a president trump could impact the workforce? john: i could be absolutely wrong, but i think his position -- the reason why the these issues have never cleared congress is because everybody had washington once to link this to this illegal immigrant issue. it never got through the voting
process. trump said he would end the h1b. john: people said a lot of things in the political process, the election process. i think it is impractical to end hurt theit will country in a profound way. if he sits down and looks at it, he will know that ending h1b will really hurt across the board for all the tech industries -- biotech, i.t., all the techs. i hope we don't get to that point. emily: george h.w. bush appointed to and you have spoken before congress. how will president trump impact u.s./china relations? john: the beginning will be
rocky. us anelieve that it gives opportunity to restart a new type of dialogue. it may not be that bad at the end. we have been running the same -- they call it containment, but we have been running that dialogue for better than one decade or more. he indicated on his website, one of the top priorities would declare china as a currency manipulator. that is what he said, ok? now, no president had done that. democrats and republicans. if he had done that, or if he actually does it, it will really create a lot of tension. and us willchinese sit down and work those things
out. at the end of it, he might surprise us and it might the a better deal on both ends. i hope i am not overly optimistic. emily: in what way could be a better deal? john: china, we do have a problem opening and broadening our reach in the chinese market, for example. in fact, it is starting to go back the old way of being more protective. maybe it is economic drivers are a lot of different things. i think it might be an opportunity there. we have to look at it that way because, as i said, it is reality. emily: he said he will end a number of trade pacts. with china, there are concerns that it could lead to a trade war. how likely do you think a trade war? john: i don't think so. i am sorry to say this, but i
don't think anyone is that dom d --umb. what do i know? if you want to be logical, you look at the well-being of everybody, including your old people -- her own people. absolutely devastating. it would put the whole world into a recession that would be very hard to get out of. we don't have any more weapons left. ease of funds, they are done. we got inflationary and places and there is no growth around the world. starting a trade war right now is the worst time that he can possibly happen. emily: mike moser venture if you would like very chairman and ceo john chen there that does it for this edition of the best of "bloomberg technology"
michael: coming up on "bloomberg best," an earthshaking u.s. election result sets up after effects. >> the trump slump followed by e had a poor benign president -- more benign president than we did. michael: a donald trump presidency has become reality. we gather immediate reactions and long-term predictions from all corners of the business and financial world. >> i believe equities and emerging markets will do fine. >> i think the reaction of the mexican peso has been overdone. >> the market is not acting