tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg November 12, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm EST
michael: coming up on "bloomberg best," an earthshaking u.s. election result sets up after effects. >> the trump slump followed by the trump jump. >> markets are clearly hoping we had a poor benign president -- more benign president than we did. michael: a donald trump presidency has become reality. we gather immediate reactions and long-term predictions from all corners of the business and financial world. >> i believe equities and emerging markets will do fine. >> i think the reaction of the mexican peso has been overdone. >> the market is not acting irrationally, but there is a long way to go. michael: highlights from another
batch of earnings reports. >> we have been eyes wide open about what is going on in the television business overall. michael: alibaba aims for another record sales call on singles day. it is all straight ahead on "bloomberg best." ♪ michael: hello and welcome. i am michael mckee. this is "bloomberg best," your weekly review of the most important business news, analysis, and interviews from bloomberg television around the world. throughout this week, of course, the u.s. presidential election was the dominant story, beginning on monday when markets surged on a wave of apparent good news for candidate hillary clinton. >> a lot of focus on this fbi investigation, and the impact is very evident across the asian trading day and other asset classes.
>> it is indeed -- what a difference the letter from the fbi could make to the markets. we are seeing this very solid risk on rally. david: some of the last polls show hillary clinton maintaining a moderate lead over donald trump. alix: a monster rally after those down days. the s&p is trying to break its nine-day losing streak. the longest sinks that since 1980. matt: -- mark: stocks finishing the session -- every industry group rising after hillary clinton was exonerated again by the fbi. scarlet: the dow gaining 350 points. for the s&p and the dow, this is the best one-day performance since march 1. to what do you attribute this -- recovery for risky assets, is it the fbi absolving clinton, or were we due for a bounce? >> it is probably a little bit of both. financial markets are making it crystal clear, they don't want to see a president trump.
scarlet: election day is upon us. stocks are trading in a tight range earlier in the day, but a broad rally. the s&p 500 posting back-to-back gains -- the s&p up by .4%. closing at a two week high. it did gain as much as .7%, but paired some of the advance into the close. joe: this comes after yesterday's big up crash, as i like to call it -- surging optimism that clinton is going to win these final two days of the election. mark: there is only one thing to watch today -- trump stuns the world. wisconsin has been called for donald trump. that takes him north of the 270 required for the electoral college, effectively leaving him as the only candidate standing. jonathan: let's get to the market fallout. dollar-yen, much stronger.
a much weaker mexican peso. dollar peso is up by 10 full points. we had a risk-on candidate and a risk-off candidate. for the markets, that was the bias, and the risk off candidate is in the white house. whether the short-term issue does become a fundamental one, and you can speak to that megan, how difficult or easy with that be for those policies on the table to become reality? for this to become more than a short-term shift? megan: not only will donald trump take the presidency, but he will do it with a republican senate and republican house. that is one thing that i did not think was priced into the market, not because of the panic driven market we see now, but being able to enact a comprehensive set of legislation. mark: european markets have been opening as he has been speaking. london coming initially in
further down than it is now. the stoxx 600 is down by 2.31%. let's get details on what exactly we have been seeing in the market as we have been listening to donald trump, the president-elect of the united states. the market heard something in the speech that it liked. what was it? >> i think it was conciliatory -- that was a good thing. if the structure spending is a good thing from an economy perspective. the market now is beginning to realize that perhaps with a republican clean sweep, fiscal policy may be a reality. jonathan: we are one minute and 10 seconds away from the opening bell in new york city. the story in europe looks like this -- we were down as much as two full percentage points and more in today's session, and then we erased all the losses on the day. the stoxx 600 unchanged on the day. a remarkable turnaround for european equities. a remarkable turnaround for futures as well, alix. u.s. futures limit down 5% at
one point. aggressive repricing. now down just .8%. alix: investors learned from brexit -- it took a while for stocks to recover, but the buy-the-dip mentality very strong. jonathan: a much more resilient risk asset. scarlet: the day after election day, u.s. equities rally more than 1%. the dow flirted with a record high, briefly eclipsing its all-time closing high. it did not quite get there. still up more than 200 points. joe: stunning reversal from a we -- what we saw last night in the immediate wake of the results. at one point today, dow futures worth 6.5% higher than they were at midnight last night. also an amazing day in the world of government bonds. talk about whipsaw. let's look at an intraday chart of the 10-year. yield over 2%. matt: so many came on the
program and said there would be a recession, yet people are buying stocks and getting out of safety assets. why? >> the third wrong prognostication in the last 24 hours, i will give it a go. markets are hoping we have a more benign president than we did. we had some sector released today -- pharma, financials -- i think it is going to continue. i can try to rationalize it. scarlet: the dow jones industrial average closing at a record high, gaining more than 200 points. this is a solid rally. joe: big surge on the dow two days in a row, but the s&p going nowhere. scarlet: they have been performing well because downtown -- donald trump has promised to rollback regulation on these industries. industrials another big winner.
all of the infrastructure spending that he has promised being priced into the sector. joe: one of the oldest cliches of all markets is markets hate uncertainty. with trump, there is so much uncertainty. we do not really know what his policy stance is on a lot of things how things will play out. , why don't we see more anxiety, frankly, on the part of the market on these big unknowns? >> uncertainty does not necessarily mean bad things. the market usually does not like uncertainty. market focuses on those things that they like when he talked about infrastructure. we talked about in the structure, a steeper curve in the health care sector. the market focused on those things. when trump made his acceptance speech, he talked about infrastructure, and those days are coming. that is why this is not a trend to the upside, but a trend of volatility. we have seen the upside moves. there will be negatives, too. >> as this wild week comes down, here to share his comments is
bloomberg gadfly columnist mike regan. one of the trends we have been talking about is the dow jones industrial average outperformance versus the nasdaq, but we were talking about some of the best performers in terms of contributions to the dow gained this week. goldman sachs is the biggest contributor to gains this week in the dow. mike: this is the biggest irony of the week. goldman was cast as the villain in this election -- hillary clinton getting paid to speak there. a major criticism of her. donald trump -- his last ad had lloyd blankfein portrayed as one of the big corporate villains out there, yet here we see far and away goldman being the biggest contributor, adding about 170 points to the dow. julie: that is right. mike: an interesting note from goldman sachs saying the main questionnaire getting from clients is the corporate tax cuts. trump wants to drastically lower
the corporate tax rate from 35% to 15%. goldman says that alone could double the growth in s&p 500 earnings next year from the ir prediction of 10% to 20%. we obviously will stand a good chance of running a good -- bigger deficit mean a greater supply of treasuries to be sold. treasury yields rising stronger this week -- longer-term, especially 30 and 10-year. that is a good sign for banks. that is why financial shares are far and away the leaders of the market. it does beg the question what does that mean for the rest of the economy as interest rates go up? michael: still ahead, much more discussion of the u.s. election, including insights from wilbur ross, bill gross, and others, on what investors can expect from a trump presidency. plus advice for the new president from larry summers. larry: there is a big difference between an adverb and a plan. michael: next, global perspectives of the economic impact of america's political -- electro decision.
michael: this is "bloomberg best." i am michael mckee. donald trump campaigned on fierce principles of populism and protectionism, but in his first days as president-elect he struck a more moderate and conciliatory tone. as he prepares to take the helm of the u.s. economy, which donald trump should the world expect? it was a topic of vigorous debate this week on bloomberg television. >> what are you telling clients today? >> donald trump in his campaign has had a message about more protectionism, so in the european open, i think we will be watching very closely, for example, how the european consumer stocks start to react
if they face greater , protectionism. in the united states, we will be watching managed-care companies because if donald trump and his administration rollback what is commonly known as obamacare, that would impact those stocks as well. if we pivot to what we heard this morning and a clear market reaction to that -- we heard jobs. we heard infrastructure build. so i think that adding fiscal stimulus to what we believe to be a supportive monetary policy can make the view over the six-month term one where equities take uncertainty, process it, and we could end higher in six months. vonnie: does it change anything on when fed hikes rates? >> yes.
if before this election result the probability was 80%, 90% of , it it is now 50% or lower. the uncertainty regarding trade and fiscal policy -- a lower stock market, a weak emerging market -- all of that would add up to say no change at the meeting next month. i think the path of rates was already very flat and shallow. so it is very unlikely much will happen in terms of the fed. francine: in front of me, i have a function that in the space of eight hours it went from 80% to 51.2%. i am surprised it is not at 20%. >> it's might fall further. there is so much unknown here. my view is consistent -- the fed cannot hike by much anyway, and this uncertainty pushes out the path of rate hikes.
tom: i am most curious if you think trump populism is an export item of the united states of america. are we going to see what we witnessed in the last 24 hours -- will we see it across italy, france, other nations? >> i think the italian referendum is an extremely complicated thing, and i am not quite sure populism is exactly the thing that will play there. i think the country that will be anxious is france because up until now everybody in france has said, just as all informed opinions in america have said, trump cannot win. marine le pen cannot win. i think it will be a lot of people asking themselves if that is so certain. i think the french will be nervous. germans, probably less so. jonathan: i just wonder how the dollar trades now. has it become a political currency for the time being as
far as hsbc is concerned? >> you have hit the nail on the head. the dollar is political currency. we have the eu referendum in italy coming up in december. if you talk about brazil politics, turkey politics, south africa politics, where is it that you talk about economics? politics is the new economics, and the u.s. is absolutely no exception to that. >> donald trump's collection victory is giving china watchers a new worry -- a threat of the trade war between the two biggest economies. the president-elect has vowed to impose new tariffs. up to 45%. >> it would become this take time before all of that comes clear. we see the campaign rhetoric. does that translate into policy execution is a different scenario. now, in that scenario even if he , does not go as high as 45%,
that would be a clear negative for chinese exporters an d american exporters within china. of course, that hits china's economy and it is a clear negative for not just china, but the global economy. >> it would be one of the worst things, stem the idea that globalization and its critics are winning. >> it would descend into a trade war, that is what the worry is. it is one thing for the u.s. to go out and unilaterally slapped tariffs on a trading power, which donald trump has promised to do. it is unlikely china would not respond. they could respond and take the hit to growth, just highly unlikely, or they could respond and let the yuan we can. -- weaken. >> i think it would move into depreciation of the japanese yen, and policy is to promote -- donald trump's intention is to promote domestic employment, so the slow depreciation of the
u.s. dollar, and slower appreciation of the japanese yen would continue. >> would more rate hikes from the fed -- how would that affect japan and in particular, the yen? >> this interest in the hike at the federal reserve has already been sort of incorporated in the market participants so that a rate hike in december would not really change the trend of the markets. >> emerging markets, stocks are trading higher today as they fell the most yesterday as investors try to position for a trump presidency. where does the money move to? >> the money moving at the moment, caroline -- into risk, stocks. we hadcally the moment, a trump's slump yesterday, followed by the trump jump, or
recovery yesterday. that was preceded in asia where they have not been in that mode. most of the currencies are weaker today. that might possibly because of the trump's on trade deals with asia. >> is there a commodity sector, and will commodity indexes do better? >> that seems to be the way the market is seeing this. if trump will be positive for stimulus, and we see a recovery in demand looking to foreign export markets, that will help the big commodity-exporting countries. mark: global bonds selling off for a second day after the surprise victory wiped the -- 370 -- $337 billion off of the market yesterday on concerns of a surge of inflation. what happened? >> they did so for about four
hours on the flight to quality trade. i think markets quickly recognized this is, first of all, expansionary. the stimulus effects will be big and the inflation impacts of either trade protectionism or just growth out right be quite -- can be quite significant. i think what you are also seeing here is a real shift, and we have talked about this before -- from traditional, quantitative easing that we have been saying, other forms of monetary policy, to fiscal policy. this is not the way we planned for it to happen. mark: this is the u.s. spread. does that continue to widen? james: we think it does. i think there are two things to one is termumber premiums as measured by the , yield curve, was depressed. it had room to move higher. inflation was deemed to be more or less dead.
michael: you are watching "bloomberg best." i am michael mckee. former u.s. treasury secretary larry summers was one of the many experienced political figures we spoke with about the of a donald trump presidency. david westin asked him what advice he has for a president elect. secretary summers: the most important thing he can do is to recognize there is a big difference between an adverb and a plan, and that he needs to propose serious and concrete plans to address the major economic concerns that are so clear to so many americans. he needs to surround himself
with capable people with extensive experience, and he needs to recognize that governing is about analysis. it is about judgment. it is not simply about ranting and expressing dissatisfaction. i do welcome and applaud his commitment to a substantial and sustained program to renew our nation's infrastructure, which i think does offer the potential of supporting job creation in the short run, more importantly , supporting and expanding the economy's capacity in the medium-run, and i think that could be an important point of common ground for many people. but unless there is a clear
sense that all americans are welcomed and part of his vision of a prosperous america, and that all nations are part of his vision of a prosperous world, i do not think he is likely to succeed in creating the prosperity we all seek. david: what about tax changes -- tax reform? you have also talked about reform of the tax structure. are you encouraged by his commitment to address that issue? sec. summers: i think there are tax reforms that could make an important contribution to our economy. if those tax reforms primarily constitute reductions in tax burdens for very high income americans, i think they are unlikely to make a substantial contribution to increasing our prosperity. i do not think the blueprint he laid out during the campaign is
a promising starting point for discussions of tax reform, though i certainly recognize many president's thinking has evolved as the reality of governing came to them. but indiscriminate and large scale taxcutting of the kind that was contained in his campaign plan, which would open up staggering new opportunities for tax sheltering, would, i believe, be very inconsistent with our national economic interests. michael: still to come on "bloomberg best" we look at news beyond the election, including earnings reports. that is straight ahead. leaders in business tell us what they think about donald trump's policy plan, and where they are thinking about putting their money now that he is headed to the white house. >> the opportunity this morning
of business leaders and prominent investors about their plans and predictions starting , with colony capital's tom barrett. david: you are not only a trump supporter, but also a shrewd investor. so, today, how do you invest your money now that we know it is president-elect trump? mr. barrett: i have been saying this the last eight hours -- by uy the dip. equities -- if you look at brexit, the opportunity this morning is equities. tomorrow, it might be something else. today, i think equities are the place to be. david: any particular sector -- what equities will benefit the most? mr. barrack: broadly, if you go and look and say you have fiscal stimulus in front of you and you are going to go to a globalization base with a secular focus, industrialization things that have been ignored -- caterpillar tractor. it has been beat up for so many years, and people are
overlooking it, thinking you do not have emerging market action, you do not have growth on an international basis that i would not be surprised if those industries get an uplift that is unexpected. alix: tom was saying earlier his signal was buy the dip. what would be your call? >> for sure, i think it is ridiculous there is a selloff. with republicans having control of the senate and the house, trump's tax program should sail right through the house because it is similar to the house program. instead of people thinking there is more uncertainty, there is less uncertainty. there is good uncertainty. -- certainty. where there would have been uncertainty, if hillary clinton were elected, can you imagine if she became president and you had a republican house and senate? that would've been the reason for the market to selloff because that would have been a mess.
this will be far, far better by any comparison. >> what do you think the market is pricing into longer yields -- growth and inflation, the gdp growth and 25 million added jobs donald trump has promised, or perhaps something less than that, or the expectation we will see additional supply flood the market with deficit spending? mr. gross: supposedly, that goes together, deficit spending and growth. erik: not coincidentally. mr. gross: no, shovel ready type things. they usually go together. i think it will force longer rates higher, even in the face of a very cautious fed. i think we are approaching, as i
said with the 10-year at 2% a , point where the curve does not steepen further, simply because we have questions as to how much deficit spending -- we have questions -- the biggest question is will these measures, whether they are regulatory, spending, tax-related -- will these measures really make a difference in terms of u.s. growth? you know, to my way of thinking, the structural arguments still hold sway in terms of demographics, in terms of debt deleveraging, in terms of technology displacing labor, etc. etc. it is not necessarily a slam dunk, despite the fact it public -- that republicans have all three houses. >> i think the situation really is, in any economy, a free enterprise system, you cannot have what we went through with obama with eight years of gridlock, but more importantly, where the perception is that the
government is at war with business. erik: you told me the last time we spoke that you were more hedged than you have ever been before, are you taking those hedges off today on the basis of the trump win? mr. icahn: i took some of them off last night, but i'm not telling you this market will run away on the upside. i still think -- there is no question -- what about the problems because donald is coming in january. there are still a number of problems in our economy. i think the zero rate interest rates are a problem. look, i am not telling you overnight this is a complete change, but i think it is a major step in the right direction. >> this is the same thing reagan did, lower taxes, and deregulate.
alix: let's get to some of the energy policies and dig deeper -- one of them lifting energy restrictions to open up federal lands to drill. from where you sit, do you see producer demand for that kind of land? >> sure. there are prospects on federal lands, and people have development plans, and things like that. you cannot work if they won't give you a permit for three years. we have duplication efforts, we have got federal regulators and state regulators overlapping. there is no need of that. one agency or the other -- state regulators can do the job just fine. >> i think it will be good for equities. i think bonds, probably, will be under slightly more pressure, but certainly for equities, i think he will be good, but as usual, it is choosing the right
equities, rather than a broad market. caroline: are there any parts of the market that you are can -- you are concerned about, martin? martin: i suppose the issue might be protecting asian -- protection, or return to more protectionism because i agree there is no such thing as free markets. you have to look at which countries might be disadvantaged by that, and which might benefit from it. that is how i would look at it on a country level on this , occasion rather than a stock level. caroline: what does it mean, martin -- are you worried about china, mexico, overall about most emerging markets? martin: i think emerging markets are doing fine, and i think we have seen sentiment return to positive there, and flows coming back into emerging markets.
sadly not into our fronts, which are closed, but i am happy with emerging markets, happy with india -- these sort of countries. i think mexico will be -- i think the reaction of the mexican peso is probably being overdone because i think, again, what was said during the campaign and what will happen afterwards are two different things. >> forget about the stuff trump ying -- let's outli assume he backs off the trade war, the crazier things -- you still are going to have potentially bigger transformation in the role of the federal government that we -- then we had under reagan. jonathan: that is the policy -- talk about the market fallout -- what do you make of the reaction? is it the right reaction? mr. ratner: it is the right reaction in the short run because if trump were to get what he wants, it is what people
like larry summers have been pushing for. it would create demand for the products. second, it will be a business friendly administration. i do not want to say it is going to be a christmas tree, but businesses will be down there getting the regulatory relief they want. in the short run, this is good for business. longer run -- $5.8 trillion of tax cuts it is probably not , great for business. the market is not acting irrationally, but there is a long way to go still. >> i believe equities and emerging markets will do fine because the u.s. economy will be doing fine, and the u.s. administration will take a very practical approach in their negotiations with mexico, china, with all these other countries. francine: right, mark, but what about trade -- trade is one of the sticking points.
a lot of these exports from emerging markets will be weakened and we saw yesterday and today central banks from india and indonesia stepping in to stabilize their currencies. mr. mobius: it is a good question, but these emerging markets like china, india, and others will depend more on their domestic market. not on export markets. commodities, i believe, will continue to rise, recover, which will be good for some emerging markets -- not all. but i believe from a point of view of the administration's stance in the u.s., i think it will be more practicality than a blanket situation with exports and imports. francine: do you assume that ttip is dead in the water, and overall free trade will be much more complicated? mr. mobius: definitely, it will be much more complicated. multilateral agreements will go out the door. it will be more bilateral
michael: you are watching "bloomberg best." i am michael mckee. time to look at the top stories beyond the u.s. presidential election, beginning with a significant earnings report from the european banking sector. francine: europe's biggest bank, hsbc, which is trying to combat the brexit effect, posting a surprise profit, a 7% rise in the third-quarter adjusted pretax profit from a year earlier. how much is down to the tax cuts? >> a lot due to the taxcutting and lower loan impairment. you sought revenue come in about where expected. the beat was on the cost side.
it cut a lot of jobs, got out of a lot of businesses. you'll saw it close the sale of the brazilian business this quarter, which gave it a capital boost. hsbc is definitely getting smaller. >> ryanair reported second-quarter earnings that rose 8% as lower fares help the company serve a record number of passengers this summer. the airline also said it plans to offer a share buyback. should we be confident you are sticking to the full-year guidance given all we have seen from the airline sector, and the difficulties the pound has produced, or should we be concerned that the jump in profits is not as big as what we have seen in the previous jobs -- jumps in profits? >> it is a tough environment, and we are getting stronger on sales. i think these are tough times, but ryanair is doing very well in tough times as people trade down to lower fares. the business continues to deliver. i think these are tough times.
>> shares in commonwealth bank are lower after they announced first-quarter earnings a short time ago. how were the numbers for australia's biggest bank? >> the numbers were flat, probably not that bad considering the moves in the market. that is about 1.8 billion u.s.. the same complaints from cba as we have had from the other three major australian banks. they are seeing that interest markets shrinking. bad debts are up to $322 million for commonwealth bank. that is the highest in two years. the tier one ratio 9.4%. it is important to remember this is a trading update from commonwealth bank, so it is not a full set of results. they run on a different calendar to the other three big banks, but an outsized move. shares off 1% after a bright
start, and you wonder how much better the asx might be as well. commonwealth making up nearly 10% of the index. emily: bank of japan reporting better than expected profit, with local wireless internet business bringing in cash for the copy. sprint's revival and steady earnings in the u.s. gave the telecom company a boost. peter, what are your big takeaways about softbank's operations based on the number s we have seen this quarter? peter: typically, the softbank operations are the least interesting part of the plans. that has continued to generate cash that they use around the world. sprint was in crisis mode for a couple of years actually, and it looks like there were signs of improvement there. they continue to add net subscribers, which is a step in the right direction. revenue has declined. that spooked investors a little bit in the u.s.
the key thing here is softbank is becoming more of an investment company, and it was said in the conference call that he will spend more of his time focusing on investments. scarlet: the canadian drugmaker valiant is cutting its annual profit forecast after posting a third-quarter loss. what took investors by surprise were comments from the cfo who warned there could be more surprises. when it comes to that comment, there could be more surprises -- it was not as if the cfo said negative surprises, but that is how investors interpreted it. >> right. he kind of just sent this in the middle of the earnings call without other details. this is a company that we know is facing several investigations. shares are falling. they are trying to turn it around. they have a new ceo that came in in may. in the midst of all of this, when there was the expectation from analysts they would cut guidance anyway, to have the new cfl say, we have surprises on
the way here anyway, sit tight -- that threw people off. matt: what is going well for valeant? what does bill ackman see that will work right? jared: well, the retention rate of the sales force is 94%. matt: so people are not quitting anymore. jared: yeah, so there is that. emily: disney shares are moving after hours. shares for the world's largest entertainment conglomerate are now higher after gross market results. the company said it was heard by lower ad sales and cable tv networks, including its largest business, espn. david: there are questions about the subscriber level for espn and reduction in the subscribers. can you bring us up to speed on where that stands -- at what rate are you losing subscribers -- is that continuing? >> we have been eyes wide open, i will call it, about what is going on in the taliban business -- television business overall. people are consuming in
different ways, in new places. mobile has become really important, for instance. we were candid a year ago about what we had been seen at the time regarding espn subs. we had been seeing losses. a lot of that came from cable light bundles that did not have espn in them. we decided we would embark on a campaign to make sure espn was included in any new, light bunches that launched. we strike deals with the distributors to make sure espn is included with some of the packages that come out. while there are challenges, we actually believe there are some solutions and some answers to some of the questions people had about what is going on with espn, and we feel good about our prospects. david: it is another
record-breaking singles day for alibaba, the biggest online shopping day of the year in china. by midafternoon, they had already beaten the sales mark by more than $13 billion. >> they have ramped up sales with more than 15 billion dollars, breaking the record of 13.3 billion they racked up in 2015. we still have three hours to go on this. big numbers. it underlines and underscores why we see international companies getting on board with the shopping extravaganza that puts black friday and cyber monday in the shade. the shopping festival is also a litmus test on the health of the chinese consumer, who we have seen remains bullish. in retail sales were up 10.7%. september, the numbers we see today seems to suggest china's consumers remain confident despite the overall slowdown in the chinese economy. david: is there much apprehension in china over what
president trump will mean for them? >> we have heard that alibaba will be the most exposed chinese technology firm if he goes ahead with these tariffs he promised on the campaign trail -- we heard from chinese media -- editorial that if that was to happen china would respond and that china should prepare for a trade war. ♪
joe: i am looking at a new function on the bloomberg. scarlet often starts to show looking at the global macro monitor, giving a picture of bonds, commodities, stocks around the world. we also have a country macro monitor looking at individual countries. michael: you know, there are about 30,000 functions on the bloomberg, and we enjoy showing you our favorites on the bloomberg television. maybe they will become your favorites. here is another function you will find useful -- quic go -- it will take you to our quick takes where you get information on timely topics. here is a quick take this week. >> almost every poll failed to predict donald trump winning the presidency over hillary clinton. >> the polls were wrong,
really dramatically. >> brexit polls. >> the pollsters have it wrong again. >> the 2014 u.s. congressional election polls. >> where did the white house and the democrats geget this wrong ? >> the polls in greece, scotland -- wrong and wrong. in any election year, if you watch cable news -- >> according to a new poll. >> the latest wave of swing state polling. >> or read any news outlet they , are referenced as if they are gospel, but every poll needs to be taken as a grain of salt, but inexactse it is an science. here's the situation. nearly all u.s. pulls and aggregators showed donald trump trailing hillary clinton through the last month, to take a step back. scientific polling started with one man in 1932 -- george gallup, who conducted a poll for his mother-in-law who was running to be secretary of state in iowa. his polling was accurate, and she won, but he still got
some predictions wrong. remember this headline -- one of the biggest election headline blunders of all time was the result of incorrect polls. methods were refined to become more accurate. today, there is gallup, rasmussen, quinnipiac, reuters, even yours truly -- bloomberg -- conducts them. the list goes on and on, but it is getting harder and harder to trust their accuracy. one reason, the cell phone. because of a ban on cell phone iodine all calls must be made , manually. that is not only time-consuming but expensive. because anyone on his cell phone can see who is down, most people don't answer the call. the response rate in 1997, 30 6% -- 36%. in 2012, 9%. low response rates say it is harder to get responses.
they are more likely to trust aggregations of polls like those created by 538, as they do not focus on one poll. here is the argument -- there is a lot of work to be done to find out why polls keep missing the mark. pollsters say more time is needed to adjust sampling techniques in the mobile phone . they point to polls that offer gift cards or cash in advance. in the meantime, some think bad polls are good for democracy, a justification that more people might vote if they did not think the results were preordained. michael: that is one of the many quick takes you can find on the bloomberg. you can also find them on bloomberg.com, along with all the latest business news and analysis 24 hours a day. that will be all for "bloomberg best" this week. thanks for watching. i am michael mckee. this is bloomberg.
did you feel that there was a glass ceiling? kenneth: there were people that told me, i do not think i can be a ceo and a black person. i talked to them about the fact that i cared a great deal about them and their families. david: somebody bought a work of art. was that to get points? do you ever leave home without your american express card? kenneth i never leave home : without it. and when i leave home, it is always with me. people would not recognize me as my -- if my tie was not fixed. ♪