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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  November 15, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EST

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mark: thank you from moscow to berlin, coverage for from new york, u.k., and saudi arabia. here is what we are watching today. follow-up on donald trump's election easing off and finance markets with emerging-market assets rebounding today. an investor about whether we saw over the last week was an overreaction. slowed,u.k. if license speculation that interest rates will stay low for longer. the bank of england governor told lawmakers today that the new policy path is of -- is appropriate. the most unpopular president in history, the german chancellor more of a begin
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but with donald trump -- will donald trump's presidency complicated things more? mark: 30 minutes until the end of the tuesday session, gmm go with your function, stocks holding onto earlier gains, a flip in the industry groups leading today's event. real estate stocks, utilities rising. is health care, these are the currencies that are falling against the dollar, the dollar ascendancy continued and a flip in the bond market today. last week, $1 trillion. fall. seeing yields italy, the two-year down 5.7 basis points and i tell you growth stronger than expected in the third quarter. oil very much leading the commodities rally today.
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6%, working toup streamline operations as the slump in the pound post-brexit. exchange rate movements will cost easyjet almost 108 million pounds in the 12 month through september of next year versus 88 million euros this year pretax profit plunged 28%, expected. the brexit vote extending this drop in the town which has --ated easyjet's euro dollar dominated cost which may discourage britons from traveling abroad, with terror attacks in france and turkey aich is hurting demand amid capacity glut which was encouraged by low oil prices. okia shares down 4%, predicted a 2017 profit margin for its main business to trail estimates, the supporting investors that expected cost
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savings by the finished network manufacturer to kick in earlier, the forecast signal that the cost savings t ctive is seeking with the purchase of out until lucent may not be boosting earnings as quickly as investors have expected which is why shares are down by almost 4% today. the big piece of macro data in the u.k. today was inflation, cpi and ppi. inflation on the fact that unexpectedly slowed in october, cpi driven down by the price of clothing and university tuition fees. the blue line line is inflation slowing 2.9% versus 1% the previous month. motor fuel prices which jumped 2.2% in october, there is little signs that the account is speeding through the week pound. the pressure on companies to raise prices is building, in put , thes surged by 4.6%
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biggest monthly gain since records began. on the year, the white line coming in put prices rose by 12.2% with the cost of importing ,oods and fuel surging 14.1% .hat is the most since 2011 mark carney testaverde -- testified before congress. s&phe dow pullback but the 500 better and the nasdaq bouncing back. a flipping today but we have seen some remarkable to virgins over the past few days -- to virgins after the past few days the s&p and nasdaq gaining substantially less, this outperformance of the very largest caps off and the old economy companies of the dow but gance which test
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a come up 8% in that time, domestically the smallest domestically oriented companies have done the best followed by the large old economy companies and the s&p and the nasdaq trailing that. banks today and how they are diverging with the five-day performance, they are trading lower today which is a pullback from what may have been doing over the past few days. guggenheim downgrading bank of america and wells fargo, wells fargo going to a cell, the call based largely on dilation, wells fargo is the worst performance of these banks. the five-day chart, it looks quite different with all of the backs higher, citigroup fairy the least best of these. bank of america the best up 17% in that time. that leads you to a violation called by guggenheim on the heels of this outperformance we have seen by the banks.
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the outperformance among the banks has to do in part with what we have been seeing in the bond market with yields rising, the 10 year yield has had this monster move, sideways on friday because bond markets were closed for veterans day. the 37 basis point move over the five-day session. today, a positive net upward momentum in yield. that explains part of the reason why we see banks pullback in the session. vonnie: thank you. let's check in on the first word news, taylor riggs has more from our newsroom here >> president obama says austerity moves cannot revive the greek economy by themselves, he is in athens where he met with the greek prime minister, they discuss spending cuts and tax hikes which is been imposed in return for billions in financial aid. president obama: posterity alone cannot deliver prosperity. -- austerity alone cannot deliver prosperity, it important with regard to debt relief and
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other accommodative strategies to help the greek people in this adjustment. >> president obama has urged that greece get some sort of relief on its debt which accounts for more than 170% of its economic output. police and germany have rated more than 200 offices and apartment of an desolate to a radical islamist group. the german interior ministry says the group radicalized young people and recorded it to go to syria to take part in the civil war. donald trump's transition team recommended former goldman sachs partner be named treasury secretary according to people familiar with the matter. mnuchin said he is working to get the biggest tax changes since ronald reagan. aaa predicts this will be the biggest thanksgiving holiday for
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travel in nine years, they say 49 million americans will travel at least 50 miles from home over the weekend, more than 2% over 2007,year, the most since the year before the global crisis begin. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. our next guest says there is more upside to come in bond yields after the president-elect's victory. you have $36 million under management, persuade me that this massive moves and bond yields is not a big overreaction? >> i believe bond yields have more upside, if you look at what is happening in terms of the market, obviously reading from -- donald trump's plan as
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positive, hard not to think this is deflationary for the global economy. he is engaging in huge tax reform which the republicans want to do. he has the mandate to do a huge infrastructure spend. he is looking to the big supply-side reforms, the -- this massive stimulus occurring at a time when the u.s. output gap is closing. you have the federal reserve about two hike and now this huge stimulus come on board, suddenly the rate projections do not look correct. points, three 25 point basis hikes. given the developments on the political side, we believe there should be more high prices in the bond yields. mark: how much higher the -- is there a ceiling given higher bond yields tightening finance or conditions, it is
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self-defeating eventually come isn't it? where is the ceiling when it comes to yields? a250 -- >> 250 on 10 years is reasonable target. part of the reason they will go up is not because the economy will be able to sustain them, we examined where we came from, we had this very low growth, low easy central-bank environment for a long time and investors have been buying expecting it to never selloff, buying yields down the yield curve and down the credit spectrum. now this big change in markets, moved from pure monetary policy focus to something which is fiscal stimulus focused and protectionism focus which is inflationary. the market is not used to coping with these big changes. liquidity cannot have -- can have a very caps on servicing investors when those occur. selloff toe bond potentially get out of control before it comes back under control as bond yields pressure
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to 50 on 10 year treasuries. vonnie: what is leading what, is the dollar leading bonds or vice versa and what happens if we get a wall street treasury secretary as is being rumored? now, the bond market is in control. i also believe that it is for the dollar, if you think about what can happen in the u.s., we will get these rate hikes and date inflation expectations, which will push yields up and it will be supportive for the u.s. dollar as well. if you think about the dollar versus the rest of the world, this is in terms of trade boost for the u.s. they probably will not lose out on exports but they were probably gain on better terms on ,he trade deals that trump gets that is imports which is positive for the u.s. dollar. if you look at the administration so far, this is
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also a big argument for not getting too worried about the protectionist policies. all of trump is surrounding himself with deal makers, he says he is a deal maker, surrounding himself with billionaires and businessmen who have done very well, not good business to slap tariffs on key trading partners, i do not believe his campaign threats to put harris on chinese goods -- tariffs on chinese goods will come to fruition. the u.s. will have a strong hand in negotiations to control such a large consumer market, they will be able to get -- benefit themselves. has beenistration chosen with a similar mindset to back this type of deal making donald trump will do. vonnie: town of mine is tax overhaul, steven mnuchin telling reporters they want to make sure they get the biggest tax bill passed before he is even been asked to be treasury secretary.
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what would be the difference between a tax reform and fiscal spending? >> this is one reason the markets are pausing. hard to know what he does get. i believe if you look at the things that were already part of the republican agenda like tax gulation, thesere things he can achieve. the things he will find more difficult are the ones that increase the deficit. this will be the fiscal spending plan he has put forward. he has worked with the investor wilbur ross to suggest $1 trillion over 10 years spending program, a public-private partnership which will pay for itself. it is a question whether those numbers actually do add up. if he can convince the did in the increase
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will not be too large he can get the fiscal spending through. fiscal spending was a desire for the party prior to the election. increasing his chances of getting be spending through. mark: given you have said we will have a for the backup in yields, what are your preferred picks? preferred >> the french bonds, the politics within france itself, because we have seen this shock outcome from brexit and the surprise outcome in the donald trump bigotry, if we look at france, marine le pen looking like she will certainly be in a second round of runoff within france. her challenger, if in the best case scenario, will be an establishment politician. he is the mayor of bordeaux and was the prime minister of france a long time ago.
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this is the type of person the electric does not tend to back as we know from the shock of its. it is worrying whether the for aican party are up fall against the antiestablishment anti-immigration, anti-globalization they do have that is marine le pen at her national party. mark: thank you for joining us. pat of global bonds. is he a fan of cash or no? vonnie: coming up, russia's economy minister is arrested in a probe, becoming a highest-ranking official arrested under vladimir putin's rule, could it be politically motivated. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: from london i am mark barton. the european close about 13 minutes away. vonnie: from bloomberg world had workers -- headquarters in new york. the russian economy minister being charged with a $2 million bribe, alexei ulyukayev was detained and place under house arrest to the highest ranking russian official to be jailed rule butdimir putin's -- butes wrongdoing here he denies wrongdoing. what is being alleged? >> an alleged -- bribe of $2 million which the toestigators say was paid
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the economy minister in return for authorizing the sale of a small oil regional producer which was bought by the mainstay oil company in russia. vonnie: what is the reaction in moscow among politicians and the general public? >> maybe one of shock. mainly one of shock, the first time someone of this right has been detained on charges like this. someone whoayev is , inbeen against the sale common with other top officials. the speculation is that he was targeted because of that. motivehere is political behind this? >> that is what the speculation is. in russia sayals that this shows that no one is
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above the law and that the anticorruption drive a vladimir but very fewous people believe that. -- it isdo not believe not thought that the anticorruption drive israel -- is real? henry: a lot of people caught up in it may or may not have done the things they are accused of. usually they are linked to various other reasons that have nothing to do with the fight against corruption. mark: thank you for joining us. ahead, his german engineering giant siemens pain too much for a company that's paying too much recovery, they defend their deal. ♪
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♪ mark: live from london, i am
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mark barton counting down to the european close, eight minutes away. vonnie: from new york, i am vonnie quinn. flash.r the business home depot posted third-quarter earnings that the estimates, the largest home improvement chain signal companies that americans would keep spending on renovation project. they raised profit forecast for the year, their same-store sales up better than expected 5.5%. retail sales in the u.s. rose more than expected last month, sales increased 8/10 of 1% in october and september's figure was revised upwards to 1%, the biggest back-to-back increase since 2014. apparel chains have the best month since february. also i can is close to -- vw has recently with regulars to
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40 for my back about 80,000 -- porsche and audi's. ♪ that is your bloomberg business flash. buy: siemens agreed to us-based mentor graphics corporation four point $.5 billion, it is an extension of its software capabilities. siemens chief executive talk to erik schatzker and said why it is a good fit. those types of software companies, they do not have the channels and are not able to transfer that no amount -- that knowhow to the investor world
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the weekend. -- but we can. mark: as for what he thinks about the u.s. election outcome, he believes resident elect donald trump might take a more moderate approach because of the way the u.s. presidency holds in the world. >> about the most powerful job in the world. eddie -- any impulse, anything from the united states would spread over the world's only world, so it matters because the whole world is looking at the united states and that is why i believe he will be mindful about what he does. we will see. mark: the siemens checklist -- chief executive speaking to us earlier.
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european equities finishing, five minutes away from the end of the european session, stocks higher, up by one third of 1%, look at the currency board today , the bloomberg dollar spot index which monitors the dollar against its peers. sterling is the best performing ther currency against dollar. inflation data which showed a slight slowdown in inflation. the selloff we have witnessed in the global fixed income 's come to an end, how long will it last? the closes next. -- the close is next. ♪
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mark: live from london and new york, this is the european
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close, i am mark barton with vonnie quinn, the end of the tuesday session, the stoxx 600 up by one third of 1%. that game during the time is 1.3% since the election and oil and gas rising over hope they will be a deal among opec and non-opec members this month to freeze or cut production. estate, utilities gaining today, they have been falling since the election and basic resources, health care, banks rising and they are hauling today. -- falling today. start with german gdp, it rose by a less than forecast .2% in the third quarter, improved by .4% in the fourth quarter, the weakest pace in the year, a reminder of the fragility of the economy in a time of rising uncertainty. the mystic expression drove that .2% increase as both government and private consumption spending rose and the global economy drag on growth, exports contracting slightly. meanwhile, german investor confidence rose, a further sign
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the economy is regaining momentum after it cooled in the third quarter as evidenced on today's gdp data. what a selloff in global bonds since the election of donald trump, that flipped today, bonds are rising in yields decline. this is the yield differential between the italian and german 10 year after donald trump's century, we saw the spread wide and in that's how yields are much white -- italian wine -- yields are much wider than german yields and we have come down 10 basis points, racing have to gain since donald trump's was elected. german bonds today rising for the first time in seven days. the german 10 year yield yesterday it rose to the highest level since february, italy rising to the highest since 2015. an increase in bonds, a down push in yields in italy and
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germany. the haven of havens is gold which is rising today, rebounding from a five-month low. strengthens, still the metal may have fallen too far and too fast according to the 14 day rsi body which yesterday was below 30 and hedge funds were among those caught on the wrong end of the donald trump vote, the next long position on gold rising, holdings and gold back also driving -- dropping by 4.9 metric tons to an adjusted 1966 tons as of monday, the biggest three-day drop in years. money moving into the safe haven that is gold. vonnie: the word of the day is pause. we are seeing the same thing in the states, country market
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movers cmm shows you the nasdaq 100 bouncing back thanks to a bounce back and some technology shares that have been suffering the last few days. contrary to that, the smaller and mid-cap stocks rising and rising, they are taking a breather with the russell 2000 .own by 4/10 of 1% 2000 drag down the russell 10 we will skip currency because we will do a currency board in the second, brent crude up 4.5% and we will look at some yields in the u.s. in a moment but i will point out that are the year note in the u.s. -- 30 year note in the u.s. rising. ,oncentrating on yields two-year yield 1% on the dollar, it had risen above 1% and it is there the last few sessions, 2.2% on the 10 year.
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let's look at currencies, the dollar index within 1% of its last time in december of 2015 and that was 100.51, now trading at 100.12, unchanged on the session but emergency that's emerging market currencies are not feeling the dollar index is unchanged. the euro biggest impact. the mexican peso above 20. look at gold. announced their -- an ounce. >> the former ecb president says donald j. trump's election and brexit czar a part of middle-class frustration come he does not think the idea brexit will spread. you could sayink what happened in the u.k. is likely to happen on the continent.
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populist, protectionist move is there and that is undeniable but i do not think it would crystallize in the political way, the stochastic way to abandon europe. >> he says that if anything, more europe is needed, especially when it comes to defense and security. spoke with the u.s. president-elect donald trump and discuss the possibilities for improving relations according to the kremlin which is both acknowledged that current relations are highly unsatisfactory. russian officials say they agreed on joining efforts to fight terrorism and they discussed the's making in syria. -- he's making in syria. aking in syria. all of this from the cabinet office documents the newspaper -- broughtork, a painting
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in $54.5 million in subsidies come the start of the week of what are considered bellwether art auctions, sales at sotheby's, christie's more than $1 billion. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. mark: and places flowing in the u.k. in october according to data today but mark carney says the unexpected slowdown does not hold to his long-term outlook, he tells the parliament committee that it will exceed the boe target. joining us is in the economist, is the slowdown temporary? grexit i fully agree with mark carney. in defense of some economists, the downside price seems to have been driven by hard to predict components as a consumer basket in terms of the headline measure, the ever volatile
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closing and footwear component, sayion fees, they do not the underlining inflationary pressures are slowing down and if i look at the price of inflation rate, the firmest rate in producer in put prices since 2011, that speaks to the views that we hold that inflation, although it may take some time, is on the way in a substantial way. mark: mark carney says there is no precise number in terms of the above gold consumer price gains, that will be tolerated by officials. is for an place injuries to port 4% in the second quarter of next year. what is tolerable when it comes to inflation? >> we see it rising somewhat higher than the bank of england does, our inflation forecast, the cpi rate of inflation will range -- reach 3% or slightly above toward the end of next year.
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that is not enough for the bank of england to move on rates in our view. what would really start scaring the monetary policy committee is measures of longer-term -- you start seeing concerns raised about the sort of 1970's wage price spiral scummy interview. that is something we do not see. -- price spiral coming into view. that is something we do not see. we see the bank of england holding on rates for the next couple of years. vonnie: the prospect of a donald trump administration said the 10 year yield up to 2.21%, the u.k. gilt yield for the tenure is 1.37%, a pretty big gap in comparison to her was. -- to where it was, does the u.s. yield drag it higher or will they be at the depressed levels for quinn theresa may is premised are -- four win theresa may is prime minister? >> traditionally you get a strong correlation between what
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is going on in terms of u.s. and uk's bond market. however, a constraining influence on that is the fact that for at least the next couple of years, we see back rates staying at very low levels. any further correction we see in u.k. gilt markets is something we see to be pretty gradual and limited in line with our dovish view of bank of england policy for the next couple of years. vonnie: won't that keep act -- inflation expectations anchored? >> we think so for the time being, for the last year or couple of years, markets and the pricing in a pretty material risk of deflation at a global level including in the u.k. and as a result you can see from break even rates that inflation expectations were depressed and what we have seen recently is an unwinding of that. i do not think yet in any way inflation expectations have the
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anchored to the upside. liftinge rising tide boats which has been out there since the donald trump victory come across the world, reflation , is it important to separate the u.s. from the rest, especially the major economies, u.k., ecb, japan? >> to an extent, i wonder why the markets got ahead of themselves. thaticism to the extent the rise in bond yields relates to expectations of a large fiscal boost from a trump presidency. i wonder if that does work to come in, what kind of broader positive effects that would have in terms of reflecting the global economy. to the extent you think those transmission channels will be muted and there is still downside risk to the global economy, particularly if you worry about protectionism that donald trump has been talking about. i wonder whether that rising tide will lift.
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mark: we had a whole batch of eurozone date today, up .3% with the eurozone specifically, germany underperformed and italy over perform. the netherlands back in line. what is the take away as we approach the big december ecb meeting? >> and makes the back in terms of various economies -- the take away from italy was some optimism but .3% being an optimistic reach shows you how structurally weak many euro zone economy still are. i think the broad picture of eurozone growth is one of continued but pretty unspectacular growth and demand. in terms of thinking about the ecb's position, the key point i would make, with activity prospects don't relatively subdued price pressures are still pretty sluggish, core inflation is bubbling come is still below 1% year on year. ecb, theys to the
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will probably look to extend some quantitive easing programs to last beyond its current timetable of march of next year. mark: great to see you, thank you for joining us. a day of macroeconomics in europe. up, president obama will meet with angela merkel tomorrow, how concerned is germany about a donald trump presidency? ♪
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mark: live from london and new york, i am mark barton with vonnie quinn, this is the european close. time for the business flash, the
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biggest business stories in the news now. the founder of the world's largest hedge fund says donald trump's election is a turning point for financial markets. he wrote there is a good jet we are at a major reversals that last a decade, he says the time will be marked by less free trade and increased u.s. growth and more inflation. easyjet will overall operations because of currency losses linked to the brexit vote, the discount airline says exchange rate moves will cost $225 million in the current fiscal year, more than twice it was last year, easyjet chief executive has ordered a review to produce a more efficient organization along with savings. jaguar is working on his first electric car, it is set for production in 2018, based on the sport-utility vehicle, it is pushing for the increasingly crowded field, our cities will
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offer 10 a electric models by 2025 and tesla hopes to produce its manufacturing capacity by 10 times two 500,000 cars per year by 2018. that is the latest bloomberg business flash. president obama met with angela merkel -- degrees prime minister as he begins his final four in progress president and tomorrow he will be an berlin where he will meet with angela merkel, she is facing a unique set of challenges. how might a donald trump presidency complicate things further? -- issue the by final beacon of liberal western authority that is cheap the final beacon of liberal western authority? billed as such
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and if you contrast some of her policy positions with the donald trump's you can make that point, , shes for free trade defended that position again today. she is a stalwart supporter of nato. she is keeping very much the line open on sanctions against russia. quite a few positions where you certainly could make that liberal argument, yes. mark: she is not even running in the election for a fourth term as of yet, we will find out later in the year. is it possible that donald trump's election victory tips her hand? >> i think it is very possible indeed. everything we hear suggests that she has still yet to make that decision. it will have to come soon, it has to come before her own party conference in the first week of december.
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she is a very careful politician as we know, she is a scientist, she weighs all of these different issues and we know from the chancellor that the trump election is one big issue she is now weighing on top of that. i would suspect that this could strengthened her resolve to finish some of the unsaid business. and effectively to try and get europe -- lead europe in these uncertain times. the feeling in germany postelection victory, o.p.s. seen an upsurge in the popularity of the anti-immigration alternative for germany party. she has been criticized by many for her refugee policy. how is sentiment in germany victory ofelection
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donald trump given we are entering a very crucial year for european elections? there was shock and dismay in large parts of germany. however, it must be stressed that the efd, the anti-immigration party, it is a far cry from the national front in france in terms of support. the national front, marine le pen, all the polls suggest that she would get through to the second round of the french elections next year. are pulling 14% maximum. nopolling 14% maximum and indication they would make part of the government so it is very measured in terms of the government response. they want to counter this post factual world with tax and the truth. truth.s and the
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mark: thank you for joining us. battle of the charts next, a postelection surge, investors bet on strength of economic conditions and easing tight ferns will alter -- offset the bite from higher minimum wage initiatives. more on that. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ for the global battle of the church where we look at some of the most compelling and telling charts of the day, what they mean for you the investor. you can access them on the bloomberg by running the function featured on the bottom of your screen. kicking things off is the debutante, taylor riggs. time, what i first am showing, we have been talking about the big selloff continue yields. we have been seeing a big selloff on the -- almost 40
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basis points since the election but as you can see, if we look at the 20 date expert agile moving average, that is what i day come it shows -- 20 -- whether the short-term goes above the longer-term expenditure move, a sign momentum is likely to continue. that is one thing i am looking at. rsi whichking at the is a measure of overbought and oversold conditions, a 30 and a 70. in yields, and verse two stock prices. -- inverse to stock prices. a little bit oversold. i prefer the exponential moving average on top because it places more weight on the more recent values that a simple moving average. oversold but looks
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momentum seems to be continuing in that direction. mark: where can you find your chart? >> 4968. mark: competitive words from the debutante. >> technical analysis with fundamental analysis on the bloomberg terminal. i am sorry, is there any point in be presenting? mark: i would walk offset. vonnie: i will talk about food because she will win. of stocks like shake shack and yum brands and papa john's which has been rising, up 7%. people buying into this bite feel like under the trump presidency, the minimum wage problems and labor shortages will not be a problem for restaurants because the ceo of shake shack who is opening 17 more next year was in a panel
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last night and he did not seem as enthusiastic about what the next administration will bring as investors in this etf simply think. ceo versus investors, either a note. -- i do not know. mark: i tell you what, on any happyday, i would be very to hand it to you, we have not focused much on restaurant stocks but it is a tradition, you will respect that, rarely have we heard a debutante with such fighting talk. let alone the exponential moving averages. coming out with both gloves ready. taylor riggs is the champion. vonnie: i am ready for you . you, well done both of checking in with the chief , bettyve of the nasdaq liu will interview her, what a
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potential drawback to financial regulations under a donald trump presidency. 3:00 p.m. eastern and 8:00 p.m. in london today. that is it for the european close, look at how equities finished on tuesday, a day of gains, three out of five is the scorecard since donald trump was elected president. five tradinge days, stocks etc. up by a quarter of 1% and i will leave you with the currency board because sterling which has been the main beneficiary against the dollar since the election of donald trump is declining today. euro up against the pound and pound down against the yen and the euro down against the dollar. bloomberg america continues. ♪
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>> it is noon in new york at 5:00 p.m. in london. david: welcome to bloomberg markets.
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♪ from the world that goes in new york, coverage for from los angeles to london and berlin. president-elect trump and vice president-elect mike pence me to review names for the cabinet and senior white house positions and we go live to the los angeles out a show or an interview with show for an- auto interview with the president of ford. the latest on what markets are doing now. most are doing the opposite of the past several days which is the overview up today. as investors take a step back and try to judge whether the run we have seen in some elements of the stock market and the plunge in others is justified given the outlook of markets and the economy under a donald trump administration. a pullback, the


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