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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  November 21, 2016 10:00am-11:01am EST

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bloomberg markets. vonnie: we are going to take you from washington to tokyo and cover stories out of london, wall street and berlin. federal reserve vice chair stanley fischer says the economy has moved back to the vicinity of the central bank's targets on unemployment and inflation. we'll get a market strategist's take. mark: paul: prime minister theresa may hence the government will seek a transitional brexit deal when negotiations with the eu begin to avoid the "cliff edge that businesses fear. vonnie: incoming senate minority leader chuck schumer says he has donald trumpstop from repealing the dodd frank act. hammering home that these rules were put in place to limit wall street. about 30 minutes into trading
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day in the u.s.. julie hyman has the latest on some records. ramy: records for all three major averages on closing basis. the dow hit that milestone last week but the s&p has gotten there. the nasdaq up 7/10 of 1% leading gains. something of a commodity led rally we are seeing in today's session. if you look at the imap of the groups on the move energy is in the top spot. it is up by 2%. that energy index trading at its highest since july of last year. a broad-based rally. not much read on the screen. heck is in the number two spot. you could guess that by looking at the strength in the nasdaq. consumer and's discretionary running out some of the best groups. small caps continuing on their upward run. the russell 2000 is up for 12 sessions in a row, the longest streak in 13 years. 11% in that period of
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time as companies are seeing as benefiting the most from a trump administration policies. guess to be tried administration policies. if you look at commodities themselves in today's session we are seeing a lot of strength. some optimism that we could see an opec agreement. iran and iraq saying -- signaling more willingness to work with opec on that plan. gold and copper were rallying. in the oilppening market. we see all these commodities rise. the dollar under pressure of them for tenths of 1%. one blackrock strategist said she anticipates trump administration officials to try and talk the dollar down going into next year. mark: i can't match you because we have no records here the stock 600 for the record it is up but we are 18% below april
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2015 record. that is the difference in performance between europe and the united states stock market. we're up today. we have alternated daily between gains and losses for 10 consecutive days. that's the longest stretch since may of 2013. like in the u.s. this is where we are similar. best performing industry groups, oil and gas and basic resorts. the performance of the euro and the italian sovereign bond this is an italian sovereign bond index. since trump won the election investor see the euro, not italian bonds, as the best way to express concern ahead of the italian referendum. traders speculating the ecb could backstopped bonds in the event of a no vote. further undermining the single currencies. the blue line is the italy sovereign bond index.
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the euro is down by 3.6% since trump was elected. bits have a look at another of politics which investors have got their eyes on. the weekend in italy. big weekend in german only -- germany and france. angela merkel will run for fourth term of chancellor. fillon to win the first round of the republican primary. winshinking is whoever will ultimately win the french election next year. let's not speculate area that is too far into the distance. what is incredible is former president nicolas sarkozy was eliminated from the race. many thought it would be a jupp e/sarkozy runoff.
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i did not tell you what the chart is telling us. the difference in yield between the french and german tender. on friday the premium to own french tenure debt -- the widest in two years. my final chart, earnings analysts have tempered estimates for earnings contraction in europe for a third consecutive week. they still see profit for members of the stock 600 dropping 2.4% on average this year. 4.5% an improvement on the contraction estimated in october. that is the most optimistic forecast. .nalysts are more optimistic vonnie: he probably did not have a chance to see but the british
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pound is actually jumped in the last few minutes almost 1% in a couple of minutes. index. the pound the actual british pound itself is -- this after the prime minister pledged lower taxes and plans for worker representation. we will monitor the pound closely. alisa: president-elect donald trump is back in new york for another round of meetings with possible cabinet members. at least three top candidates have emerged for treasury secretary. wilbur ross, jonathan gray in steve minich and -- stephen the nation. bob corker is a list of possibles for secretary of state as is mitt romney. james mattis is a prospect for defense secretary. president obama says he intends to give president-elect trump
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space to lead the u.s. and set his own agenda. he says he reserves the right to reinsert himself into the public debate if he things core american values are at stake. the president spoke in lima, peru after a meeting of asia-pacific leaders. , a suicide bomber killed at least 20 people inside a shia, muslim mosque. dozens were wounded. no one has claimed responsibility. militant sunni muslims such as the taliban and islamic state consider shiites to be nonbelievers. in northern india rescue crews have finished searching the mangled cars of a derail train. 142 people were killed and another 150 injured. rescuers used torches to cut open the cars and cranes to lift them from the tracks. the president of south korea is one step closer to being impeached. lockedon of lawmakers is -- is calling for her ouster over and influence scandal that puts the opposition near to the votes it needs for impeaching
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her. park has shown few signs she's willing to step down. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm alisa parenti. vonnie: thanks for that. for the past couple of weeks market moves have been largely driven by the election of donald trump. now the focus is increasingly turning to the prospect of that rate hike from the federal reserve next month. -- vice chairman sally stanley fincher is speaking on the council of foreign relations in new york. he reinforced those bets for a december hike. >> the economy has moved back to the vicinity of inflation targets. along some dimensions this has not been a happy recovery. vonnie: for more on fed expectations and the less than happy recovery we're joined by michael o'rourke. he says the results of the election aressuring in a paradigm shift in market
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perceptions. you were a bear on markets and yet today we just hit highs. how does the coalesce with your view? michael: when you think about it we have gone a good 15 months without a new high. since the end of 2014 the market has been down as much as 10% from the year and close as much as up 8% or 9%. this two-year consolidation pattern is the best way to describe it. what is interesting about this shift in market expectations is if you give people the election results the day before they would bet the exact opposite way they are betting now. a bit of euphoria, surprise. i'm not sure people are thinking clearly when they're pricing this type of excitement the market. vonnie: you are expecting a bear market to begin at some point? michael: i would have thought it started sooner being that we had gone so long without making highs.
10:10 am peaked in the economic data has not been great. you see stanley fincher give that speech and say we're close to target, the same levels of unemployment and inflation we have been from multiyear. nothing changed in the economy in the past six months but now the fed's rate hike again. , the peak inhit unconventional policies. the path between the central -- the federal reserve, the doj and the ecb. till is that of supported markets are going to dissipate. vonnie: just to dip into my bloomberg to illustrate what you were saying, the price-to-earnings ratio in the s&p, definitely not near all-time highs. -- fairlythat is valued? michael: all-time highs are a bubble that led to a 50% downturn.
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you don't want to be testing those levels. the other previous peak was before the 1987 crash, another episode you don't want to go near. the thing you do realize, we've been in this 15 year slowdown in gdp growth where historically we for -- we have grown 3.3% the year. -- the economy is not growing how it has historically to support pe of this level. mark: the blue line is the bloomberg barclays treasury index. yield choke up growth forgets started? does fixed income volatility spill into these at any time soon? michael: the biggest peril with these -- he's going to have
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pro-fiscal spending policies i going to drive growth and deflation. everyone talks about a reagan like shift but people forget -- three quarters of the first two years of reagan's administration were in recession, one of the worst postwar recessions -- it's amazing how the markets, their member of the positive peril and not the negative. the selloff in treasury bonds represents a shifting of market expectations. if you think back to the paper tantrum in 2013, the 10 year pointsent up 110 basis -- 140 basis points. mortgage rates went up 110 basis points. that slowed the housing recovery. in the countrys in july 2013 and trust in february 2014 and did not until march of 2015. you'll see a slowdown if rates rise. mark: what happens?
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you are projecting the market will fall. what we have seen since trump -- moving to financials, industrials. when does that move its -- when does that run its course?which types of stock will get hit the hardest in this downward move your projecting? michael: the financials move is a great one. names become a source of funds were investors are selling those names because they benefited from the globalization trade as far as being able to pick their tax domiciles. they went heavily in all the democratic party during the election. they become a source of funds. the money is rotated to something like the big banks because they are mega-caps that can absorb the funds. the republican party, i would hardly call them a friend to large banks. they will be a friend to small banks. a small bank verse large bank trade forming. at that way.riced
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you're going to see some of these trades set up over time. -- donalds pricing is trump is going to build the wall and u.s. steel will provide all the steel for it. that is not the way the world works. it's not that pretty. as a lot of execution risk to having the best case scenario play out. to me that is most attractive is emerging markets that have been killed in place like mexico. they are still going to benefit from globalization unit trade with the u.s. slows down. they will still find other trading partners. -- if it comes up with a market is pricing it we're talking about the end of the globalization trade. multinationals have been able to pick out the best tax domiciles, best manufacturing domiciles. we can't going to protections policy and then all of a sudden say corporate earnings are going to hold up and bring jobs back to the u.s. i don't think the emerging
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markets that have been hit are going to do as poorly as everyone is betting. vonnie: michael o'rourke. thanks. up, we are going to look at the market movers in the early u.s. session including energy stocks joining the postelection gain. ♪
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mark: live from london and new york, i mark barton. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. it's time for your latest bloomberg is the splash, look at some of the biggest business stories. global regulators say u.s. angst present a bigger risk to
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the financial system than it did last year. citigroup, bank of america and wells fargo all face higher capital surcharges to ward off stress. most systemically important banks. people familiar with the matter told bloomberg apple has disbanded the division that develops wireless routers. the company had not updated its routers since 2013. bloomberg business flash. let's get the julie hyman looking atal c sermodity related movers. julie: we were talking about gold and oil, copper rising in today's session. oil in particular on new hopes for an opec agreement on production. wanted to look at individual movers going up on oil. chevron, exxon mobil, some of the big shares. if you look on to some of the
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volatile oil and gas companies they're also on the rise. chesapeake energy, a 5% today. range resources up 4.5. trans ocean getting a ball before percent. moving away from oil and other commodities we have been watching, freeport, copper and gold has been on the run. callan says freeport is the go to copper investment vehicle after the impressive actions taken by management to right side the balance sheet. $20 is the price target, under 15 at the moment. westlake chemical rising today. stock was upgraded over at vertical research. best in class earnings upside under a u.s. corporate tax reform scenario. those shares of 5%. a different kind of commodity we are watching today. poultry. tyson foods is plunging after
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the company said donny smith would be stepping down in the next fiscal year as chief executive officer. he has been there for some time and has also presided over a big increase in the stock price. the company announced earnings that missed estimates. pilgrim's pride and hormel are down to some degree. mark: oil and gas basic resources best two performing industry groups. pension savers and banks rejoice. this over lining in the global bond selloff. that is next.
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vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i'm vonnie quinn in new york. mark: i mark barton. seismic shift, some of the terms used to describe -- long-term
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holders of bonds for income are; get a good thing. bondto talk us through market, brian chappatta. many parties, companies and so on and so forth. rubbing their hands with glee after this big ramp up. let's start with companies come especially those companies that have got liabilities in their defined plan. this is a huge relief. vonnie: they've really had to shift into other alternative assets to make of the lack of income they were getting from their fixed income investments. according to milliman to my who i interviewed, this is going to reduce future liabilities by $100 billion. half a percentage point increase in interest rates already so that's a huge reprieve.
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and can start shifting back the bonds and getting that fixed income. what bonds usually are used for rather than the ice returns we have seen over the past few years. mark: the bankers, we have seen in the stock price performance, this shift into industrials. this shift into banks. income could have something happy for investors all the way around. brian: for a long time this year it was frederick -- it was flatter yield curves. is a really huge benefit to the banks. a help to the savers. individuals who are risk-averse, want to park their money somewhere and get some sort of income. this is a huge relief after the year we have seen. vonnie: yields on the 30 year treasury bonds of about 50 basic points -- basis points since the
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election. a bone for savers. what about savers that were tried to be more active about where they put their money and perhaps took their money out of regular index funds and put them into more emerging-market thai fund's? brian: those have been hard hit. the move hurt a lot of people. the question is going to be going forward from these levels, it gives people an opportunity to make up the difference as far as returns. when the price goes down and yields go up it is painful but ultimately a benefit because you can lock in higher rates for a long period of time. tonie: there are mandates have a certain not of a you and in treasuries, u.s. treasuries. what is the typical amount they would hold? brian: i'm not exactly sure. ideally they would want to have a huge allocation of bonds.
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in a perfect world they would buy bonds, immunize themselves from any sort of price swings in the market and have enough assets to meet their liabilities long-term. that is their ultimate goal. it's because of these ultralow rates are altra depressed rates they have had to readjust their asset allocation and potentially take more risk. mark: great story. big winners emerge. one of the great stories on the bloomberg this morning. to the ceowill talk of a public wedding company about the what hundred billion dollar business of weddings. this is bloomberg.
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. . seeing is believing, and that's why
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we're opening more xfinity stores closer to you. visit us today and learn how to get the most out of all your services, like xfinity x1. we'll put the power in your hands, so you can see how x1 is changing the way you experience tv with features like voice remote, making it easier and more fun than ever. there's more in store than you imagine. visit an xfinity store today and see for yourself. xfinity, the future of awesome. vonnie: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york and london, i'm vonnie quinn. and i'm mark barton.
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let's check in on the first word news with lisa per. the: syria has refused united nations proposal for a truce in the battle city of aleppo. the government demand rebel forces withdraw from the city. a human rights group estimates 200 civilians have killed -- have been killed in aleppo since last week. in france, they front runner is former prime minister francois a few him. she won by 16 percentage points and has the most free market platform among the seven candidates. the former french president, nicolas sarkozy has been knocked out of the race. in france, police have forwarded a potential terrorist attack, resting seven people in strasburg and marseille. the rest comes five days before the opening of the famed strasburg christmas market.
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japanese peacekeepers have arrived in south sudan with expanded powers. for the first time since world war ii, the soldiers will be allowed to use force to protect civilians. japan's postwar constitution for bids using force, but the government has issued a new interpretation. pope francis is allowing priests graveolve people of the sin of abortion. vatican officials described the announcement as an extension of the church's mercy. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. vonnie: now we want to turn to the big business of lettings. at $100his is valued billion. the company's ceo rang the opening bell at the new york
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stock exchange to kick off what they are calling proposal season, which apparently starts on thanksgiving. is there an increase in the number of proposals from thanksgiving? you for having me and happy proposal season. 40% of the people are going to betweenied do it thanksgiving and valentine's day. it's the most wonderful time of the year. vonnie: so that is three and a half months, so that is dispersed throughout the year. talk about how your business and how it is faring. 72% of your business is from internet and media. what trends are you seeing? guest: advertising and commissions we collect for helping people book services and products we need. when you get engaged, coupled has never done before is asked to become professional event planners for the rest of their life -- for one year of their
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life and spend $30,000. they come to us and download our app and take them step by step through the wedding planning process all the way through to finding the venue, the band, the photographer, all the stuff they need to have. vonnie: in that regard, you compete with any number of players in very niche sections, like groupon and when 800 flowers. these are competitors. how do you draw in someone and keep them from going in various different directions? guest: we are the only app and only site that offers end to end solutions for planning this event. for finding the photos of the flowers to finding the florist in your neighborhood to connecting with that florist can be done through our product. vonnie: you have 20 million monthly visitors and $100 million in cash. how are you going to up your operating margins? tost: we have been able
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improve our gross profit over the last few years while accelerating our revenue. product from one that rely solely on advertising to one that relies on advertising as well as transactional services. quarter, our transaction business is up 50% year-over-year. vonnie: you have also made some acquisitions. do you intend on making more and what areas are you looking to acquire in question mark -- acquire in? opportunistic. gig masters was a great example. people planning any kind of party can go to gig masters, , thethe band, the dj transportation that they need, click a button and book the service. that is very much on strategy for us. thank you very much for coming to us from the new york
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stock exchange floor. mark: coming up, rudy giuliani, wilbur ross and chris christie, just a few of the people who met with president-elect donald trump this weekend. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie you are watching bloomberg. i'm vonnie quinn. mark: i mark barton and this is your global business report. facebook is expanding in u.k., hiring more people in building a new headquarters. vonnie: workers at one of the busiest airports in the u.s. may go on strike. what that could mean for thanks giving travel. mark: and in today's bloomberg quick take, a look at the growing business of legalized
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hot for recreational use in the u.s. british prime mr. theresa may is offering and all of branch to businesses -- british prime minister theresa may is offering and all of branch to businesses. to missd executives not the opportunity presented by brexit. may: the decision gives us a once in a generation chance to shape a new future for buildtion, the chance to a stronger, fairer country. that's the kind of change people voted for, not just to leave the european union, but to change the way our country works and the people for whom it works forever. facebook is ramping up its presence in the u.k. they will hire 500 employees, increasing its british headcount by 50%. they are moving to a new london
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adquarters next year. many new hires will be high skilled engineers. for the second month in a row, japan has posted a trade surplus . it was given by a 16% decline in the value of imports. exports tumbled due to drop since deal, autos and medications quitman. hundreds of -- and medication of equipment. -- they are seeking to be represented by a union and want $15 now hour. it's unclear how may flights at o'hare would be affected. vonnie: time for our bloomberg quick take where we provide context and background on interest -- issues of interest. americans have changed their minds about weed. consumemericans can we'd freely in their home states.
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inre is the situation -- november, voters in massachusetts, nevada, maine and california said yes to legalizing weed for recreational use. voters in arizona turn down the merit -- turned down the measure. a majority of states have legalized it for medical use. the election of donald trump to might easyncy outlook. he says states should determine their own weed rules. yet they have effect because the justice department in 2013 interfere since federal law bans marijuana for all usage. a republican led justice department could change that policy. legal weed joins consumables like chocolates and immense. $3 billion in sales are estimated in 2013. cannabis has been used since medicinalmes for its and mood altering effects.
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it was outlawed in the 1930's, about the same time a 13 year prohibition on alcohol was overturned through a constitutional amendment. support for legalization grew after states began permitting medical use of the plant to treat pain and nausea in patients with aids and cancer. legalization advocates make the case that cannabis is safer than alcohol and making weed legal will allow for better monitoring that has long existed underground. it also provides tax revenue. million collected 135 dollars in taxes and fees from 240 dispensaries in 2015. critics say easing marijuana law exposes children and teenagers in the drug and could lead to an increase in drug driving. you can read all of our quick takes on the bloomberg. mark: two u.s. politics,
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president-elect donald trump continues to staff his cabinet. he met with a series of wall street veterans at the trump national golf club to fill the role of treasury secretary. joining us from our washington dc bureau with a look at who is in the running is our bloomberg politics reporter. a number of gentlemen met with president-elect trump over the weekend. they could all be attentional treasury secretary's but is steve mentioned still the favorite? all indications he is. he is a goldman sachs alum and investment banker. he was finance chair for the trump his name has been floated for a long time. there are some others in the mix trump met with but apart from him, everything else seems to be speculation that i'm not in a
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position to confirm that i would encourage people to keep an eye on him. he seems to being are the top of the list. keeping an eyeso on his nomination for secretary of state. mitt romney met with him on saturday. he referred to the president-elect as phony and a fraud. they met for an hour. how much would it -- how much of a shock would it be if he gains the nomination. guest: he would be the third toled presidential candidate become secretary of state after hillary clinton and john kerry. it's mostly speculation what he is being considered for and what they discussed. it's also plausible he wanted mitt romney's advice on how to address and deal with the traditional business wing of the republican party with whom romney has a lot of respect and has been skeptical of president-elect trump.
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going to be successful, he needs all the help he can get. thing he would want romney on board for. spokespeople for the president-elect's ansition team have been on conference calls. some of the headlines are that going home for thanksgiving and a whole host of people visiting today including newt gingrich, there's going to be a video coming out which will cover trade, energy regulations, defense and a whole host of things. where do you see the transition team at? where will the major decisions be made? guest: it's not clear when the major decisions are going to be made. whenever trump arrives at the conclusion. senator jeff sessions for attorney general and mike pompeo
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for cia and michael flynn for national security advisor, these suggest more than anything else that president-elect trump is going to govern the way he campaigned. a number of these figures share his views whether it is immigration restriction is or suspicious views about muslims coming to the united states. he's going to try to make good on some of these promises he made and it would not surprise me if the rest of his cabinet follow that pattern. he's also meeting with border patrol representatives and union leaders. is he meeting these people just to check in with them? is this a typical thing to do or is he trying to spread himself narrowly -- nearly across all basis? guest: i think he's trying to meet with as many people as he can. it doesn't mean everyone he meets with is going to be an ally.
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he's making a lot of decisions and listening to a lot of people. how many of those people influence him and to what end is anyone's guess. chuck schumer has been speaking strong words, him and his fellow democrats suggest they will stand in the way to repeal dodd-frank or scrap obamacare. seemsighting talk but it as though trump and him can work on various things, yes? guest: sure.guest: they have suggested there could be common ground on infrastructure. immigration, they disagree on. senator schumer has suggested the country needs to revamp the way it does trade deals. comes to repealing the aca, democrats will be united
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against it. it is unclear how much republicans can repeal without democratic support because there's still the 60 vote threshold for legislation and that will make it difficult. it's going to be difficult to repeal things like the full girl cfp of the i would not expect a lot of democrats, if any to get onboard board repealing the aca or dodd-frank. thank you for joining us. one person thinks donald trump will change his rhetoric. our dobby to open and aberdeen office. >> he's a good businessman.
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he's right medicare and i think he will deal with the issues that confront him. i agree with what president obama was saying which is the reality of the office will make him adapt. i think he will adapt. he says asian markets are attractive and the dollar strength should help emerging-market exports. >> i am not as negative as a lot of people, i have to be positive on emerging markets. if i'm not, no one is going to be. i think they are fine and the growth is still there. while many eu politicians want to punish the u.k. for leaving, theresa may has found an ally in poland.
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we will hear from the country's president. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i'm vonnie quinn in new york. mark: and from london, i'm mark barton. prime minister theresa may gave a speech in london earlier where she set out terms of a grand bargain to pport british businesses. minister may: when the government delivers its statement on wednesday, he will lay out an agenda that is ambitious for business and ambitious for britain. he will commit to providing a strong and stable foundation for our economy, continuing the task of bringing the deficit down and getting our debt falling so we can live within our means once again.
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ourill build on the actions independent bank of england has taken to support our economy. is ouroining us now bloomberg brexit editor, simon kennedy. has the prime minister rebooted her relationship with his this is? simon: we had a bit of a skirmish at the start when she took over and immigration is a companiesr a lot of that require migrants to produce goods and deliver their services . they were worried that would mean a fall off in trade and she doubled down and talked about the elites and perhaps forcing today was trying to talk positive about things, including the idea that perhaps she won't force the u.k. off the cliff edge.
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some businesses are worried we will leave the eu but -- mark: not have a transitional idea. amon: the british press had run with it today, perhaps overstating what she said. that she wasgment for companies and would take it on board. vonnie: there is speculation as to what the corporate tax rate will be. britain can probably take whatever it wants. what's the latest on that? right't for it's still in the eu which has some tax competitive guidelines. but this is one issue that has been talked about prior to the brexit referendum in june. the u.k. leeward companies in with a corporate tax raise that is competitive and theresa may hinted they will maintain the
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by 2020.0% -- 17% aboutonald trump talking a 15% corporate tax rate, so perhaps the corporate tax wars are here to stay as everyone races lower to try to attract companies. vonnie: the other interesting thing is that ecb told banks to relax but not to rush into do anything. is the ecb helping? simon: no. this is helpful to banks. banks looking to enter the euro area have been told that he don't need to rush, you don't need to worry about the first move advantage. you don't have to worry about being morgan stanley are goldman sachs, but the various initiatives put in place to make sure everyone could move at the same time should they desire. just getting a headline
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from the prime minister's spokeswoman, the u.k. seeking to march a two-year process to put everything into place. not everyone is bashing britain right now. before we discuss this -- let's listen to the man putting forward a softer touch toward the u.k.. >> we want ties between europe and u.k. to be kept even if >> it does go into force. the u.k. is a strong economy and it would be a great loss if it was cut from the economy and the ties were separate. mark: is this less inflammatory rhetoric going to catch on?
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been morey have tolerant of what is called the brexit chaos. there is talk that the brits need to be punished and after trump's victory, this idea that if brexit was made fashionable or concessions were given to the brits that others would follow. link to also have a big the u.k.. poland is important to the british economy. to say everyone would suffer if we are too harsh on britain. haven't got time to ask you out who is the big philip in town. you'll have to read his article. the european closes next. you are watching bloomberg. ♪
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mark: it is a 11 a.m. in new york and midnight in hong kong. 30 minutes left in the trading day in europe. vonnie: this is the european close on bloomberg markets.
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mark: we are going to take you from washington to paris and cover stories out of germany and the u.k. and next hour. here's what we are watching. jeremy corbyn speaks to bloomberg. stay tuned for his take on government support for business, brexit, and president-elect donald trump. vonnie: then the latest in european politics. the former french minister posting a surprise first place finish in the surprise -- in the primary. in germany, angela merkel confirms she would indeed seek a fourth term. brazil bonds could sidestep the recession to post some of the world's biggest gains


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