tv Bloomberg Daybreak Americas Bloomberg November 25, 2016 7:00am-10:01am EST
i'm jonathan ferro in new york . david westin and alix steel are off today. they look at the markets and equities in the u.s. are at all-time highs and we could get some more records today with futures up 47 and the dow closing four points on the s&p 500. as the u.s. markets get back to work, treasuries continue their slides and some dollar weakness in the g 10 space. the dollar-yen at 113. nejra: here is what you need to know at this hour here on "bloomberg daybreak: americas." drug use dilemma. the ecb to my not make a call on its bond buying program until early next year. a central bank governor tells bloomberg it is too early to discuss. takeover tactics. johnson & johnson is set to
approach tactfully for a giant looks to expand its pharma lineup. trimming its second weekly game as opec focuses negotiated terms on iran and russia after iraq's signals they will agree to a production cuts. the next meeting is november 30 and that is what you need to know at this hour. jonathan: the ecb is facing the decision to extend a 1.8 chilean dollars dennis program. -- 1.8 chilean dollars stimulus -- $1.8 trillion stimulus program. we were in athens earlier to weigh in on the subject. >> bond yields and bond prices have changed. we are entering perhaps a new .ra
the numbers show that our policy works. inflation is on the rise as i said before. we look at this data on the eighth of december and we will decide. of course, monetary policy will continue to be accommodating until inflation arrives at a level of 2% or slightly lower. still a long distance from these targets. >> far too early to be talking about the tapering word. >> it is far too early, exactly. >> one thing we have seen as a result of donald trump's election, a steeper yield curve. is that desirable in your mind? yes.s, i think it's a desirable effect. >> because it helps the banks. but it does raise costs. >>'s growth also goes up, it does not.
for now, the most important problem is low growth. improves, it is expected bond yields will be on the rise. >> you talked about five year and flesh the five years point to the fact that quite some way out inflation is not going to get back to targets. that is something the markets is pricing in at the moment and your data seems to indicate something as well. janet yellen talks about running a hot economy. she has seen this and seems to know what she thinks now. she thinks overshooting on the inflation story is something central banks should think about. is that something ecb should think about his wealth? >> not yet. the cycle differs now in europe compared to the united states. we are in different phases of the cycle. >> do you think it would be desirable to point out to the market that even if once we get to inflation targets that
actually running beyond that a little bit will be something the banks want? >> we have not discussed this at all. jonathan: that was guy johnson with the ecb governor of greece. sayvery pleased to to that we are bringing in richard from london. richard, great to have you with us. a big topic of discussion ahead of the meeting on december 8. he says it's too early to discuss tapering. isn't that straightforward? >> what we know is the ecb is eventually going to have to taper. it is on a path to run out of bonds to buy at this point. the question is about when they taper and how aggressively they taper going forward. the contrast between what we are seeing in the europe and u.s. space could barely be greater. the u.s. is seeing growth accelerating and the return of
inflation pressures and the shift to fiscal policy with high hopes of fiscal expansion. in europe, growth remains very weak. inflation remains far below the ecb's target with the market anticipating it will remain below that target for up to 10 years. we are seeing no signs of fiscal policy. we will see a shift toward a less aggressive monetary policy that will be a very gradual and slow process. jonathan: guy and the government talked about the backup and yields. at the same time, you have the benefits of the steeper yield curve for banks. which is more important to the governing council at this point? helping out the banks or helping out the sovereigns on the periphery facing significant global risk in the coming years? richard: i think the focus is certainly not on the banks. the banks will be pleased they are getting the steeper
yield curve and it will relieve pressure on them. it is certainly not the focus of monetary policy. looking forward, it still looks like a very low yield environment. the move we have seen is far more modest than we have seen in the united states and other parts of the world. the downward pressure on yields in europe is immense. we continue to see low inflationary pressures. we see a lot of excess savings. we continue to have an overhang of access that. expectant yields to remain very low in europe for some time. nejra: is that bad news for the ecb? the backup we have had in yields is good in terms of the ability to buy. nejra: it has provided some short-term relief of the ecb. richard: as i said before, ultimately we know the ecb is going to have to taper. it will buy a little more time,
but they are ultimately on a path where it eventually monetary policy hats to assist. to move frome monetary policy on to other policy tools. the challenge that we have in europe is getting that regulatory change going, shifting fiscal policy, which is a very hard thing to achieve. what we see in the u.s. is a very different model to what we will see going forward. nejra: i'm wondering how you see the euro playing it's all this. a lot of people saying the political risk will drive the euro lower, particularly against sterling. is that taking pressure off the ecb as well? richard: we have seen broad-based dollar strength after the u.s. election and that is largely on the expectation of two things. we will see u.s. interest rates rise more rapidly than we will see rates rise and the rest of the world and secondly partly driven by the expectation you will get some capital coming
back to the u.s. and re-patria should've dollars back to the u.s.. -- repatriation of dollars back to the u.s.. certainly a weaker euro has taken some pressure and provides a loose monetary environment and supports the export center here in europe. we would not anticipate that going dramatically further from here, partly because there is a lot in the price and the market anticipating a similar move. at any currency, you can look at both sides. in the u.s., we expect rate rises and people see the first rate rises coming in december. the market is anticipating that. looking forward to next year, we think the fed will continue to be very gradual as the fed allows the economy to get traction and allows inflation to take hold. our expectation would be some broadly dollar strength. the euro on the weaker side. we do not see a huge shift in the euro which would alleviate
pressure on the ecb for jonathan. jonathan: is the fed decision, largely expected to be a rate hike. december 2015 was an incredibly thepy, volatile meeting for ecb. they talked about the stimulus and under delivered in the eyes of many people. it's clearly a divergence in the ecb in what is said by policymakers and what others say. are we set for a choppy meeting on december 8? richard: i think the meetings are going to become more challenging going forward for the simple reason that we know that monetary policy itself is not having the impact on the economy that many policymakers hoped for. we also know that is not omgnificant easing policy fr here. how do we back away from the degree of quantitative easing we are seeing now?
those debates are only going to get more intense as we go forward. jonathan: richard turn hell, hill, great to have you with us. let's look at what is happening outside the world of business. five men arrested on sunday were planning a terror attack and they were getting orders from an islamic state member and iraq or syria. are settingallies aim to discourage the child administration from abandoning the iran nuclear deal. iran to reduce its stockpile of radioactive materials to well below the level of agreed-upon. president-elect donald trump has vowed to scrap the iran deal or renegotiated. thanks to the president erect, the premise for of hungry says he will no longer be considered a black sheep in the eyes of washington. he says trump has invited him to visit. he became the first leader in
europe to publicly back 10 the the then president trumpet. global news twice for hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm emma chandra. this is bloomberg. jonathan: the u.s. markets get back to work with the futures positive and stocks at all-time highs. let's check in with abigail doolittle. abigail: starting over in europe, we have shares of europe's largest biotech firm after bloomberg broke the news earlier that j and j has made an initial takeover offer of $17 billion. the two companies are in early talks. j and j shares are about flat. it is thought to expand the company's pharmaceutical side. on the year, shares are up 10%. airline company are down after they did cancel
more than 2600 flights on a pilot strike. the pilot union is saying that unless they show goodwill, it could extend beyond saturday. the union is looking for a 20% pay hike. lufthansa has offered a big divide. shares of amazon trading about flat. this as the company put up record thinks giving sales of $2 billion. 13.6% growth apparently driven by heavy discounting. you would think the stock in the holiday season would do very well, but on average over the last five decembers, the stock has dropped nearly 4% in the month of december. jonathan: coming up on this program, dollar dominance. the strength of the greenback rewriting the rules across the globe. we will discuss on whether there is still more room to run. johnson & johnson on a potential takeover. we would get details of the takeover speculation
jonathan: from new york, this is "bloomberg daybreak: americas." we closed wednesday at all-time highs. equities pushing higher in the future markets once again. in the fx market, it is king once again. the u.s. dollar rallying to the highest level in more than a decade. a stronger case for hiking u.s. interest rates weighing on bonds in emerging markets. richard is still with us in london. it is good to have you with us. this dollar strength story is a
factor of the backup and yields. the risk rally continues though. thatis a basic function captures the em space. it is based off the dollar and everything is lower, everything weaker with the exception of the dollar. it has been a route in em against the u.s. dollar. the question is when this eats into the broader risk rally? when does that happen? richard: i think you have seen two things happen very quickly in the markets. on the one hand, markets have repressed positively risk on u.s. cyclicals. we have seen small caps do very well. on the other hand, we have seen markets quickly price and a high risk premium or how level of broadly around many emerging markets. it's about emerging-market equities, bonds, and emerging-market currencies. a lot of that risk is already in the price. the valuations have moved very rapidly.
in our view, those two trends can't continue. in our view, the more powerful of those is the cyclical recovery story. that is because even before the u.s. election, we were seeing these in place. global growth taking up, inflation a pressure is rising in the u.s. and emerging markets , and the shift from monetary to fiscal policy. we have seen that be good news for emerging markets. there are headwinds and we have a high degree of political uncertainty now. donald trump means that we did not know what future policies may be toward emerging markets. we still want to take avenge of many of the opportunities in emerging markets, particular those that on a fit from a stronger u.s. and global economy. you want to be cautious to some of those markets that have larger exposure with the u.s. and perhaps trade higher. jonathan: what about putting a
portfolio together? in the summer, long bonds and long equities where the trade. it is hard to find diversification so to speak. when asking people about ever, they would say go to em. fast-forward 5-6 months, do we need to rethink diversification? richard: i think em plays an important role in a client portfolio not just for diversification reasons, but return reasons is one of the few asset classes that looks at attractive value compared to the history. it is becoming increasingly challenging an environment when bond yields are rising. bond yields will continue to rise lb it gradually from here. correlations are breaking down and we are seeing that almost on a daily basis as the markets are schizophrenic. it's good in some parts of the market, but it's bad news for
many other parts of the equity markets, particularly so-called bond proxies. investors could think away from the traditional ballots portfolio and look to where they can get other assets or other exposures. short fixed income side, duration bonds. in terms of looking on equities and the value areas of the market and the rising yield environment, it really means they need to be flexible and react quickly to many of the big changes we are seeing in the markets. jonathan: great to have you with us on the program to break down thoughts. coming up on this program, m&a ahead for j and j. a swiss biotech firm is said to be a takeover target. could this be a prescription for success? taking on the fed. in the final republican
nejra: you are working "bloomberg daybreak: americas." one of our big stories this morning is johnson and johnson approaching antillean for a takeover. this is as the health-care giant is looking to expand its pharmaceutical lineup. i want to show you this chart on theares soaring speculation of that take over and they are soaring by the most in more than two years. are anations early stage, but you could see what we have seen in actelion shares. jonathan: let's get more on this deal. we are joined by the bloomberg intelligence director of european research in london.
great to catch up with you. the story around this company is that it is a company that j&j quite clearly wants. can you walk us through it? sam: we should not forget first of all actelion that -- that actelion has been here before. there is a regular store that comes every five or six months about a possible acquisition . whether this is true or not, time will tell. does it make sense for j and j? i've been looking for j and j to do a deal of this size for the drug business. they have not done a drug deal of meaningful size since 2001. the reality is that they have been very successful with their internal pipeline and acquiring specific drugs to develop. whether they need this or not is really not the question here. the point is that they have $13.4 billion in net cash, which
is burning a hole in their pocket. is actelion a good acquisition for that money? it's all down to the evaluation. around the current prices, it is obviously going to be a cash deal. it is a nice business to have added to your farm aside. jonathan: if they're asking for the portfolio that actelion has, why would actelion want to sell? it has been in m&a target for a while. why would this seal the deal so to speak? the ceo has been very adamant that they want to remain an independent company, which you would say if you want to get the best price for your company at some point. there is a slight difference this time around and that is that we have just come out of the third-quarter results and the company did worry investors and some analysts with the possibility of what we were all expecting with sooners than
perhaps later of generics coming into one of their key drugs in the u.s.. they do have products in its place, but people of started to worry and that is why have share prices have taken a dip for the recent past since the results. maybe it means that now shareholders are little more open to listening to possible business. possibly that is the timing may be. jonathan: the margin story at actelion -- tell me about that. tell me about how that will affect it if j&j acquires the business. sam: it is a very specialized area. it is the 800 pound gorilla in that area. scheme ofoader things, from a perspective johnson & johnson, this company of sales inon a 2020, and we will be talking
about a company over $80 billion. it's not a huge difference. actelion the lower tax base, but it will not be a major driving factor. this is about whether it is the right thing for j&j to buy this to add it to its pharmaceuticals. jonathan: great to have you with us, sam. the stocks trading at an all-time high with actelion up over 14 percentage points. coming up, it is black friday. retailers are hoping for a postelection spending spree. will trumps win boost consumer confidence? we will take a look at u.s. consumer next. we count you down to the cash open. futures open at a all-time high. this is bloomberg. ♪
with the pager managed parks -- major benchmarks and all-time high. the bond market resuming it slide and treasuries lower. yields are up and the dollar having a much weaker session in the g 10 space, down against almost everything with the exception of maybe sterling. the euro dollar is south. dollar-yen getting back towards a 113 handle. that is the story and across asset situation. but still up to speed on what you need to know with emma chandra. ecb might not make a call on its bond buying program until early next year. the greek central bank governor tells bloomberg it is too early to discuss tapering. takeover tactics. johnson and johnson is set to approach actelion with a potential takeover of the swiss drugmaker as the u.s. health care giant moves to expand its pharma lineup. opec shift. oil trimming at second weekly
game as opec focuses negotiations iran and russia. the next opec meeting is slated for november 30. that is what you need to know at this hour. nejra: thanks so much. morning, athis prosecutor in paris is five men arrested on sunday were planning a terrorist attack in france as early as next week. the suspects were getting their orders from an islamic state member based in iran or syria. the five were arrested in strasburg. caroline is in paris with what we need to know at this hour. tell us about the latest. >> we already learned earlier that these five men had been arrested in marseille. they were kept in custody for more than 96 hours, which is the maximum authorized in france. this is why the prosecutor had to give them up today.
have new information about the attack that they were possibly planning. it was imminent, possibly next onk in france, possibly december 1. the other new element we had from the prosecutor is that they find direct proof that the five suspects received direct orders from the islamic state zone in syria or iraq. the five men arrested, four of them were french nationals between 35 and 37 years old. are in france for a long time. the last man arrested in marseille was a 46-year-old of moroccan nationality described as a homeless person. the police also seized about a dozen weapons during the investigation. given that four out of the five men came from strasburg and we town of the is the
biggest christmas market in france, we can expect and assume that they were possibly planning an attack on the sidelines of this christmas market. the christmas market opens today and they expect 2 million visitors. carolyn inmberg's paris for us. jonathan: shopping for holiday gifts kicked off yesterday evening. joined surveillance earlier to preview retails biggest weekend and the state of consumer spending. >> black friday is not nearly as significant as it used to be. however, because of what happened in this election and the market going crazy and hitting new highs, i think that is going to affect retail very positively going into this holiday season. the top 10%, the 42% that are
spending, that is tremendously significant. this run-up in the market is going to affect retail sales in a positive voice and that is something that the election has done. francine: talk to me about why we still even to black friday. we are moving to online retail sales does it really make sense offering all these discounts because you are not learning anyone to you shop? howard: we are in a battle for market share. in america, we have three times the amount of square foot per country.at any other three times more than england, three times more than japan, three times more than canada. store dramatically over and that is why we're going to close tens of thousands of more stores. we're going to close malls. we are going to have a massive real estate problem. we are over stored in the fastest-growing area is online. this does not come together and makes absolutely no sense.
share,ttle for market and that is what we are in, you go after every dollar and only the strong survive. that is what is going on. francine: you think black friday makes no sense. discounts,e blanket the bestsellers get it flying off the shelves and they have to restart in time for christmas? howard: and in over stored environment, everybody sells the same thing coul. the only difference is price. if the only difference is price, where do you go? the price goes down. this is not rocket science. retailing is in a very tough space. michael: who is the strong? who's going to survive and who goes out of business? who's in trouble? howard: clearly department stores are the worst space. we have sears. i do not have to tell you they are in liquidation.
liquidation largest in america, thank you very much . we have negatives across the board and the entire department store sector. you go down the whole list and they are almost all bad. those are all the specialty stores that are in malls. as far as the real estate sector, we have $50 billion of debt coming through in the next 18 months. that is going to be a major problem. the banks are very aware of what is going on and so are the lenders. some of those rates are a little scary. look at those carefully. all this is going on and we have got some great stuff. to, dollar tree, we have good stuff going on, too. jonathan: that was howard devitt avidowitz.
we're joined now by lindy ruff -- lindsay rub. shelley, do we look at the s&p 500 and the dow and 19000 and say i'm going shopping? >> there is some sort of wealth not thatut there's need to go out and shopping right now. jonathan: is the price on main street going to be the dominant theme once again? >> i think we are going to be seeing price pressure through the whole season. we have been seeing at all year. it is one way retailers can differentiate themselves. more retailers are saying i've got something different to offer. label or private something new like jcpenney brand bringing in appliances. jonathan: the way howard puts it is that it is the only lever. if you have all that real estate and floor space that he says has
got to go, what can you do with it to make it more than just about price? shelly: you can make it an experience come up on place to be, a place that is different every time customers walk in. you have to make it a place that they want to come and spend time and come back to. lindsey: i agree completely. prices obviously really important right now. the issue with these retailers is that they are not actually explain it to consumers as much that we do have lower prices than say amazon or some of these other online websites. they really taking a hit on their margins. they are not explaining can consumers -- to consumers that this really is a lower price than others. nejra: i want to take it back to the first questions. american spending has been declining in the last three .ears could b we have been talking about this election is going to be a boon for retailers. how long could that last beyond the holiday season? lindsey: we have not seen
evidence that there is going to be a boon and retailers are hoping nobody is distracted by politics anymore and a ready to go to the stores and get into the christmas spirit. it could last through early 2017. the consumers are in a great spot. by all measures, they should have money to spend and be willing to spend it. jonathan: theoretically consumers are in a good spot. up, fuel ising lower, inflation is ok and stable. house prices are up. the stock markets up. the election had a very different message. a missed those two things -- the headline data in the message we got from the election? shelly: the consumer is in a good spot to spend. people are going to come out this holiday season and spend. the key to that is in the nuance, which is that they are not going to spend everywhere coul. they're going to spend in their homes on amazon. they are not going out to macy's or dilutes or jcpenney to buy the same thing they can get everywhere else. jonathan: can we talk about
black friday in terms of a concept? i think the media gets excited more about it than consumers do. is it really still what it was a couple years ago or is he getting smaller and smaller? fromey: 15% of the sales the holiday come from black. it just depends on how you look at it. you have to play to the point earlier in this game. it does not matter if it's important or not. if other people are doing it, you have to play. you have to play smartly. shelly: the other issue with black friday as a day itself is that it has been spread out. you have mobile wednesday by ebay and stores are open on the actual holiday. also the internet is always open. your shopper can find you whenever they want. it is definitely drawing sales away from just one specific day. shelly: it's also interesting how much the sales have been pulled forth.
as retailers start pulling the sales forward, people shop earlier. it says to you, do i really need to be open on thinks giving their? i can get everything i want online. lindsey: i did drive by some malls last night and they were quite full. jonathan: mobile wednesday -- that is now a thing in the united states apparently. nejra: ebay introduced it. i read that and it's pretty funny. a total rebranding even ahead of black friday. rupps so much to lindsay and shelly banjo. asing up, oil is falling opec negotiations focus on potential production cuts from iran and russia. will the cartel be able to reach an agreement ahead of next week's deadline? this is bloomberg. ♪
nejra: this is "bloomberg daybreak: americas." emma: i'm emma chandra. coming up in the next half hour, janet hamlin. oil trims its second weekly gain ahead of next week's opec meeting in vienna. the focus is on negotiations with iran and russia to cut production. joining us now, will kennedy. we are seeing a little bit of a shift in negotiations. ?ow significant is this will: earlier we had a premonition of saying they are willing to cut production. now the efforts are concentrating on iran.
they're going to talk to his counterpart. the problem is that saudi arabia wants to cut production. iran wants to keep raising the production to compensate for the barrels lost with sanctions. nejra: how is russia fitting into all this? it could be even more important than what happens within opec. will: this whole thing might fall on the biggest producer outside of opec. russia has been part of negotiations now for most of this year. andi arabia is very key they participate for obvious reasons because they do not have to do all the work. russia is saying it will freeze production. it is even claiming that the freeze is a cut because it would forgo barrels. that is not cutting with saudi arabia. there is friction between the two giants of the oil world with saudi arabia same we need to cut a bit and russia saying no.
nejra: the bti is at $47 a barrel and brent at $48. what is the potential upside or downside in the event that we do or do not good deal? will: a lot is going to depend on exactly what the deal looks like. there are scenarios of taking between half a million and more than a million barrels of oil out of the market. obviously the market would respond very differently to each of those scenarios. it will also want to look at how just how hard a deal is. there is a risk they hammer out the deal, but when you look at it it turns out quite soft. nejra: i just want to ask a question on metals. we cannot signal was happening in that market. a number of metals and overbought territory. tell us about the stunning rally we have seen. will: metals have been having a bit of a comeback, but it was the u.s. election that gave them impetus.
the trade that we have seen in asset classes has people thinking that trump will mean stronger growth of u.s. and more materials. that is quite something. it looks a bit sustained. at the start of the week, goldman sachs says we should be switching overweight to commodities and it seems to be gaining some heft. nejra: are people questioning how much of that is on fundamentals now and how much for the right has to go? will: this is all on the promise that the u.s. economy will take off and the chinese economy will stay strong and that is not necessarily a given. it is worth finding out and a lot of the commodity markets that chinese prices are driving a lot of this global action. there are a lot of investors in china who are quite speculative. clearly there are risks that some of that could come out of the market. nejra: will kennedy of bloomberg news, thank you so much for joining us and taking us through opec and what is happening in the metals markets. time now for other stories making headlines at this hour. here's emma chandra but your bloomberg business flash.
emma: president-elect donald trump says he is making progress a factoryempt to keep for moving out of the country. he says he is working to keep the plant and its 1400 workers in indiana. carrier has said it had talks with trumps team but nothing to announce. the pilot strike with lufthansa has been extended a fourth day. they're asking for more pay. after midnight tonight that it will have canceled more than 2600 flights. an executive of the german airline says that pilots have abandoned all logic. it is official. london homes or less affordable than ever. and now cost the average londoner 14 times their annual salary to buy a home. that is more than double the ratio for the u.k. as a whole. ousing prices in london have risen 86% since 2009. it has failed to meet the market for overseas and british investors.
i'm emma chandra. this is bloomberg. nejra: thanks so much. coming up, the fight for france. republican presidential hopefuls clash ahead of the debate ahead of the vote for the french presidency. did they regain lost ground? as we take a look at markets at this point of the day, let's take a look at those. features point higher in the u.s.. the dax is down 2/10 of a percent. this is bloomberg. ♪
i'm jonathan ferro. we are live from london and new york for a special transatlantic edition of "bloomberg daybreak: americas." good morning to you. and s&pres are up futures up by four or five with major benchmarks sitting at all-time highs. board,et to the other the treasury slide does resume with yields up by two basis points on the u.s. tenure. we do kiss a tenure high. dollar stress has been a theme over the last month or so. strongest. is at the a weaker dollar session and the g 10 space. the dollar yen approaching that 113 level. here are some of the things that will be in the trading diary as we look at some of the upcoming global events in november and december. france republican
primary spinning toward december 4. after that, december 8 has a european central bank meeting with the tapering program. it is a much in focus. 100%ber 14, markets say and go home and we should be getting a rate hike apparent ly. simon, great to have you with us on the program. think about the risk events coming up, book ended by politics and then the federal reserve meeting. many people expect there to be a rate hike. i want to know how important those policies will? be in europe for the month to come? . simon: i think it will be a key driver for months to come. what happens in december, there has been a lot of speculation around the italian referendum as well and as adding noise to the ecb and the fomc. whichever way you look at it,
whether the fed delivers that 100% probability that we are expecting or not, it is going to be a very active month were very quiet month in the markets generally through december. it'll all be about 2017. we will the second round of voting the sunday. jonathan: another month or so ago, we would've talked about this huge load of negative yielding debt. i am wondering how much time that buys the ecb on whether they need to make a decision on the asset purchase program in the coming weeks or whether they can wait till early 2017. simon: the key point is that they do have breathing space given the selloff in rates markets. at the same time, market is expecting them to extend beyond the march timeframe, which is currently the deadline. weather comes at the end of this or at the ecb's meeting on the eighth or whether they delay that to january, the market will be hoping they do describe an
extension at the meeting this month. i think generally there are expectations of whether they will do it in december. jonathan: the rate hike is on for the federal reserve. the extension of the program is on at the ecb. this right here on my bloomberg is the two year yield spread u.s. versus germany. we were 190 basis points earlier up on the session. how much oxygen is left in this trade? can the spread go even wider than it already is? simon: if the fed goes in december and the ecb at the same time or just within a week is expanding its policy accommodations through 2017 rather than tapering, then i think you're certainly going to see a to handle coming into that spread. it is becoming rarefied in terms of the atmosphere. there is oxygen to be had. jonathan: simon valid, great to have you with us and great to have some of the risk events on
the horizon. we will debate that chart with janet henry as she joins us to discuss central banking and dollar dominance. she will reveal her outlook for the global economy. brian cornell, target ceo and chairman, on what his company is expecting from the holiday sales season. that comes at 10:00 a.m. eastern and three clock p.m. in london. the united states and wall street getting back to work for half a day of trading with equities at all-time highs. features might get another record. the s&p 500 up five points. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
withransatlantic daybreak jonathan ferro in new york and in london. david westin and alix steel are away today. futures signal there might be more to come. 58 points on the dow. positive almost five points on the s&p 500 as wall street returns for half a day trading at these. again.re higher once very close to 2016 highs. king dollar showing a day of weakness so far in the g 10 space with the dollar-yen back at 113. nejra: here's what you need to know at this hour on "bloomberg daybreak: americas." draghi's dilemma. the ecb might not make a call on its bond buying program until early next year. the ecb governor tells bloomberg is too early to discuss. johnson & johnson approaching actelion for a takeover of the
drugmaker as the u.s. health s to expand its final lineup. on negotiations with iran and russia after iraq signals that will agree to production cuts. the next opec meeting is slated for november 30 and that is what you need to know at this hour. jonathan: the ecb faces a decision on december 8 on whether to extend a $1.8 trillion stimulus program. some policy makers saying they are putting off decisions about the future of its bond buying program until early 2017. guy johnson spoke with the bank of greece governor in athens earlier about rising bond yields and the impact of that program. true that the bond prices and bond yields have changed. we are entering perhaps a new era.
the numbers show that our policy works. inflation is on the rise as i said before. we look at all this data on the eighth of december and we will decide. of course, monetary policy will continue to be accommodating and inflation is at a level which is 2% or slightly lower. there is still a long distance from this target. >> far too early to be talking about the tapering word. >> it is far too early, exactly. >> one thing we have seen as a result of donald trump selection -- having a steeper yield curve. is that desirable in your mind? >> from the bank's point of view, yes. i think it is a desirable effect. >> because it helps the banks? >> it helps the banks. >> it does raise borrowing costs. >> yes, but if growth also goes
up, doesn't matter. now the most important problem is low growth. improves, it is expected that bond yields will be on the rise. >> you talk about rising inflation and the five years point to the fact that even quite some way out that inflation is not going to get back to targets. that is something that the market is pricing in the moment and yield data and the forecast seem to indicate something as well. janet yellen talks about running a hot economy. she has seen this. she thinks that overshooting on the inflation story is something that central banks should think about. is that something the ecb should think about as well? >> no, not yet. the cycle differs now in europe compared to the united states. we are in a different phase of the cycle. >> do you think it would be desirable to point out to the markets that even if once we get
to inflation targets that actually running beyond that a little bit will be something that the bank will tolerate? >> know, we of not discussed this at all. jonathan: that was guy johnson with the ecb governor and bank of greece governor. i'm very pleased to welcome in janet henry, global chief economist at hsbc. great to have you with us. said so much on the subject of cute you exhaustion. -- qe exhaustion. should we be talking about the efficacy of doing even more and continuing to do even more? janet: there's lots of things they need to talk about. i've written a lot about monetary policy and monetary policy reaching its limits. that does not mean that we can fall back. along the way that we think monetary policy can still work in the euro area is to provide a backstop for governance do more . we've talked about not using
time effectively, but it has allowed slightly easing fiscal policy than they were allowed to. jonathan: he talked about the benefits of a steeper yield curve. it is good for banks, but is it offset by the fact that it is not so great if they're are not yielding 2% on the 10 year against? how do those things play off ecb?other if you are the janet: it is disrupting the way that the qb has been working until now. ensures that you have a very similar monetary policy across the euro area. what we had over the last couple of months and the last few weeks is that we had elements of political risk being priced in. we had a little risk of political risk priced into the market. to talk about tapering, especially in december, we have a lot of political events next year. the last thing the ecb needs to be thinking about is triggering
a real widening of the spreads, which would, locate the way its monetary policy is working. i think december is focused on the extension. as the central bank governor of greece, talk about tapering later. nejra: in terms of the backup we have seen in yields globally and in europe, i'm wondering how much longer you see that continuing. you said now with so much central-bank buying dominating markets, there is actually no room for bond vigilantes. janet: clearly what we have seen since president-elect trump was elected has been a shift in the balance of risk. we had this expectation of fiscal policy. know what's know how big it's going to be. i think what is interesting about europe is that while have you seen this rise in expectations in the u.s., yet also seen it come through in europe it is remarkable because
everything else in europe is quite deflationary. core inflation is very low and pay settlements are very low. bringly thing that might slightly higher inflation is the exchange rate wee weakness in the slight oil pickup prices -- oil prices pickup. we can focus on the cyclical for a few months, wait to see what comes through from the u.s. in the first quarter in terms of an expected budget, and the perhaps later in the year realize that all the structural considerations we have been talking about with the democratic's and productivity and high debt come back to focus. nejra: how for you does this play into the ecb conversation? hi yields make more assets eligible to buy. when we look at the meeting coming up in december, how much danger is there if we do not see a dovish dip? janet: if you think about the
conversations we were having a for we saw the selloff coming bond markets, the ecb was talking about setting up various committees and possible changes in the creditors. parameters. to they lower the yield? at that we have seen the rise and bond yields, they can extend without having to adjust the parameters. if yields fall again, they could find themselves with some kind of scarcity. my feeling is that they might be well advised to have some broadening in terms of lying a higher proportion of each individual bonds, especially the non-cap bonds, possibly even lower in the yield to give them scope for further extensions and not find the markets questioning them once again. i think it's quite an important time. they disappointed the market this time last year in december when they told the fed to do all the work. even though it will not be an
easy meeting for mr. mario draghi to get a unanimous decision, it is the most likely outcome. jonathan: janet, she is staying with us. janet henry, hsbc global chief economist. here's headlines with emma chandra. emma: the present of turkey is threatening to reopen the borders and flood europe with millions of migrants. reacting to a vote in the european parliament when lawmakers called on the eu to spend turkey's membership talks. turkey is feeding more than 3 million refugees. further, hees will let them leave for europe. fires have caused thousands of people to flee homes. hardest hit was the city of haifa. israeli officials said the been arson and 13 people have been arrested. the prime minister of hungry
says he will no longer be considered a black sheep in the eyes of washington. he says that president-elect donald trump has invited him to visit. in july, he became the first leader to publicly back then candidate chart. president obama shunned him during his two terms and criticized him for you rubbing democracy. global news toy for hours a day powered by 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries, i am emma chandra. jonathan: futures positive here in the united states with some movers. here's abigail doolittle. abigail: it is black friday. on this annual shopping event, we do have shares of both walmart and target trading higher on early reports that black friday is off to a good start. it looks take both of these big-box retailers are discounting heavily. discounting more so than last year, close to 40%. it's perhaps in a bid to keep up th e-commerce giant amazon, which reported record sales on thanksgiving of $2 billion.
also higher on the premarket is bank of america. shares of bank of america are now up 22% on the year. thatng here is the fact almost all those gains have come after the election. rates have rally. up for its yield is biggest move ever. finally turning to japan, the topix index did finish upwards. it is the longest winning streak since the spring of 2015. it is close to the longest streak of 15 days back in 1988. driving this move higher is the drop in dollar-yen. the dollar is down 7% this month first with monthly drop -- for its worst monthly drop since 2000 and. jonathan: the odds of a december hike as the dollar makes gains against the end.
jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg daybreak: americas." let's get a check of the markets for you. in the unitedks states -- benchmarks in the united states sitting at all-time highs. points in the s&p 500 as the treasury market resumes it slide. yields are higher, up 2-3 basis points. the dollar strength story not
quite in the market today. the euro-dollar at 105.92. a little bit of dollar weakness. over the last month, the dollar is certainly king once again, on pace first third straight week of gains against the japanese yen and at its highest level in roughly 13 years. an interest rate hike is almost a certainty. janet henry is still very much with us. we talked about a spillover effect and the catcher in the the bloomberg. he can track online the dollar against every e.m. currency. pretty much everything has taken a beating. do we talk about the positives of a stronger dollar or two we talk about the negatives of a stronger dollar for the global economy? janet: we have moved on from the dollar being a stabilizing factor. we have seen periods of dollar appreciation from time to time in the last few years, but as
the dollar strengthened, has cost spillover effects. it has slowed down the u.s. economy because of the impact on profits, the impact on exports. i think what has really changed is obviously this expectation of a bigger fiscal stimulus, which might well mean actually that the u.s. dollar doesn't slow down the u.s. economy. that the fed can raise rates a little more quickly previously. we are going for two rate rises this year, which is what the markets have gone a long way to pricing in. it means therefore we need to be more alert to the risks elsewhere in the world. we have seen some modest impacts in terms of rate rises in mexico. we saw the rate rise in turkey yesterday. near-termutside the may actually reverse those expectations on the fed, which currently seems to be pushing up the u.s. dollar. jonathan: that is how it patches
in the e.m. space. in the developed world, looking at it to your spread, trading at 190 basis points. a key ask is how much water can that get -- how much wider cannot get? is the conversation you two are having right now over the averaging one tape policy -- diverging monetary policy stories that have come up again in the last month or so? janet: a lot of it comes down to the issues of timing. we agreed that their big structural factors over the coming years, which still .2 a point to a real low rate world. i think the rate will still be quite low, but short-term, especially with a love of the support coming through for fiscal policy, we have actually put in one more said rate rise into our profile. it means that short-term you can andaps have more separation
monetary policy that has been the case over the course of the last six years or so. that is why i think steve has a much sharper fall back in bond yields that perhaps some of our economic implications might point to. nejra: one spread i've been watching closely over the past spreads been the differential and what i have is the us-japan yield spread, pointing to stronger dollar-yen, would you agree? curtsy strategist have a strong dollar story and particularly in the near term. i think that's an appropriate one. in japan's case, deflationary mindset is so ingrained. there is nothing that monetary policy in japan can actually do. i think the bank of japan with the yen at these levels can't afford to sit where they are. the only thing that would be the game changer in japan is if the
government adopted policies. we discussed it before on bloomberg that the government may need to address tax incentives to make sure they pay workers more and pay at the wage levels for the yen at the moment is going to be driven by the u.s. and not really by japanese monetary policy. nejra: what is the biggest risk to dollar dominance right now? janet: protectionism is a good point. in the weeks ahead of donald trump being elected, it was all about protectionism. he is not use the word months since elected -- he is not use the word much since elected. i expect bilateral negotiations, but the risk might come back. if we find a cell 6-9 months from now and because of the strength of the dollar, he is failed to make america great would then that
potentially lead to the emergence of maybe small protectionism type of measures coming through. nejra: janet henry, hsbc global chief economist, thank you so much for joining us on the program. coming up, m&a ahead for j and j. actelion is said to be at johnson & johnson takeover target. could this be a prescription for success? we discussed next. this is bloomberg. ♪
nejra: you are works watching "bloomberg daybreak: americas." i and they are chairs alongside jonathan ferro in new york. johnson & johnson approaching actelion about a potential takeover of the swiss drugmaker according to people familiar with the matter. it happens as the u.s. health-care giant is looking to expand its pharmaceutical and lineup. actelion shares soaring today,
by the most in more than two years, even though deliberations are said to be at an early stage. actelion is europe's largest biotech firm. it has been named as a potential takeover target for years. the founder and ceo has previously said the company plans to remain independent, but it might perhaps now be more open to a deal one of the people familiar said. this is as actelion shares have previously risen 13%. jonathan: let's continue the conversation on the drugmaker. we are joined by sam in london. cap fivea great piece and the line is history matches here. company has been vindicated by telling other people to go away and not to sell. why is it different this time around? sam: if it is different this time around, i think one reason
it could go forward is that we have just come out with the third-quarter results for the company. if you look at the share price since october 17th, it has been not been doing particularly well. they talked about the generic version of a drug coming into the u.s. market and potentially first quarter 2017. the question here now is whether they are really capable and how fast and how well they can keep growing the newer products, which are better, admits a backdrop of a cheaper generic of their existing franchise drug. if this is something they are worrying about, maybe it will be amenable opening the door and listening to a possible cash bid. nejra: what does johnson & johnson have to gain here? sam: they gain a little bit from using the cash that is in their bank account. thatu look at the range
pharma companies have, johnson & johnson is at the top of it. they're going to be continuing to generate cash. that's an expensive water money to keep in the bank. why not use it to add revenue and profitability? this is a strong franchise that actelion has. that is what they have to gain. do they have to do the deal? i do not really think so. it took me a while for me to get myself over the line as to what are they going to gain from it. nejra: put this in context for us among the some $246 billion in pharma deals already announced. sam: a lot of them have been similar. the latest one we saw was pfizer by medivation with a much different valuation granted. if johnson & johnson and
actelion goes through, this will get a lower valuation. they are looking for anymore growth to the bottom line at a time where they are just come out of the past expiry and patent cliff world, a world where you need highly efficient drugs to do hair discussions in a positive way for both the pharma companies. that is what they're looking for to differentiate. nejra: sam, bloomberg intelligence director of european research, thanks so much for joining us now. coming up, black friday has arrived. that is what we talk about next. this is bloomberg. ♪
ecb may not make a call on its bond buying program until early next year. is too early to discuss tapering. johnson & johnson is said to approach actelion about a potential takeover of the swiss drugmaker as the u.s. health giant looks to expand its farm line-up. and opec showing its second week of gain as it focuses on negotiations with iran and russia after iraq signals they will agree to reduction cuts. that is what you need to know this hour. jonathan: thank you. let's get you up to speed on the markets. three weeks of gains on the s&p 500. we sit at an all-time high. futures are positive, up 4.5 points, up 52 in the dow. in the bond market, we resume a slide. yields higher around two or three basis points. answer capture the feel in the g
10 space of the fx market, a dollar weakness story against the grain of the last month. the euro-dollar outperforming at 1.0593. nejra: thanks. now to the morning meeting, where we hear what he banks are looking at. today is black friday. stores have been packed with shoppers. one key area to watch for -- retailers. and thee holiday season recent election seen. for more, we are joined by t.j. thornton, jeffrey's managing director. great to have you on the program. looking at apparel -- you are looking at this before the election. t.j.: we started to get more positive on apparel, just knowing that comps going into this season were easy last -- were easy pay last winter, they were mild. a lot of retailers saw negative comps, so right now, we are
overlapping with easy looking comps. the election of trump helps the case, because consumers are likely to see lower taxes. and a lot of these retailers are mystically focused -- domestically focused. they have some of the most to gain. nejra: i was interested to see your comments on athlete or -- on ath-leisure. you see a shift away from that into denim and retro styles. t.j.: yes. and i should be clear, i had a project management. we have a lot of different themes. we have an urban ticklist. there was a good call on lulu early in the year with a buy, then came off of it.
is as become clear there shift away from the ath-leisure category towards denim and styles that we think benefit urban. nejra: what are the parts of the retail space -- what other parts of the retail space are you looking at as potential beneficiaries after the election? or are there others you see as weakness? t.j.: another we have been focused on is restaurants. they are almost certainly going to see benefits from a stronger consumer, assuming we do see lower taxes and perhaps additional wage and job gains. but some of what is good for jobs and wages is bad for restaurants. restaurants have been noting tighter labor markets for a while pay we have seen evidence of that even well before trump.
the average year on year earnings we put up in the month of october was the best this cycle. things are starting to tighten. the has tightened the labor tightened that has the labor markets for restaurants. and that will likely exacerbate in the next year. nejra: what about the impact of online shopping this season? what do you see? it is interesting. that may set up an opportunity. obviously, one of the reason people have been negative on apparel retailers and retailers overall -- with the exception of amazon -- is online. 30% of theirut business online. so they benefit. but the online fears have kept people away from stocks. it is interesting to look at etf flows post-trump. you see a boost to cyclical etf's.
have benefited as well. discretionary and retail have not. for could be a positive this group. people are already putting a negative on it. a stock we is upgraded a few months ago. things in the store looked much better. they have invested in labor. things seem to turn around there. in the past year, they bought jets, added millions to their online offering, and they now offer a shipping tax, which is an amazon prime-like offering. so we think this could be a good holiday season for them. nejra: fascinating. thank you t.j. thornton, jeffrey's managing director. jonathan: thank you. for more on retail, let's bring in michael gould, formerly of bloomingdale's.
the morning's conversation is about price and how it will go lower on black friday. is that the wrong approach to all of this? michael: it is an approach. i just listened to mr. thornton talk about online. yesterday in "the new york times" said that because of e-commerce, black friday starts whenever amazon wanted to start. so they started november 1. , it is" us, kohl's remarkable to see them use the doorbusters online. , in are now's doorbusters essence. because the store does not care where gets the business. had ads --k times"
there were 15 different inserts in it. they were all of appealing to price. price is important. the customer is looking for it. but to win on price in today's world is a dead-end route. jonathan: so you think the model is broken. how do you fix it? michael: it is easy to be a critic. it is always easy to bring someone else's children up. one of my friends says i can just walk around and pontificate , where you just talk. i believe the department store model is broken. it does not mean it cannot be fixed. on the other side of that spectrum -- and not being corny about it -- people have been going to the markets since the time of the greeks. it is not just to buy or purchase something. there is a social interaction to it. the general and from jeffrey - jefferies talked about
restaurants. people want to go to restaurants because of the experience. the experience has to be put back in the store. it has to be a better balance between the capital application of what is put online and what is in the store. interestingso listening to the general talk about walmart and people talking about the flow of merchandise. it is not just about buying jet.com. it is about how do you walk and chew gum at the same time. it has to be in concert. but over the course of the last four or five years, stores have put a disproportionate amount of capital investment in the online business at the expense of the experience of the store. jonathan: let's talk about that. black friday, by definition, is about getting things cheap, about price. so you are the ceo of a department store again, how
would you set up a department store ahead of black friday? would you sit it out? michael: you cannot sit it out. one of the key people who did not open yesterday was t.j. maxx. probably the one who has the best performance the last couple of years. they have great values every day. a treasure hunt every day. so to be lower-priced on thanksgiving or on friday is not something they need to do. but look at a commodity like cashmere sweaters. was $39 90 nine cents. bloomingdale's, it was $79.99. if you want to go to the other end of the world, there is a starting price of $89.95. yes, there is a price element, but that has to calm -- come with the experience, which is where stores are missing the boat now. nejra: of course, we are
digesting what will happen in the retail sector this season following the election. i am wondering how you see the election having an impact longer-term, even if we see it as a boon for retailers. michael: anyone who can fork that cash today is a genius. and with all due respect and not political, which donald trump shows up january 20? we have seen the issues you are passionate about during the election, and now he is backing off those things, from the afford a care act to waterboarding. -- from the affordable care act to waterboarding. so i do not know who will show up. there was a wonderful comment a
number of years ago i have always remembered. 90% of what is given to you and 10% of how you deal with it. what retailers can do is run a business focused towards its customer, focused towards creating that excitement and experience in the store that once -- that makes people want to come back into the store. and we know that that a customer who shops both online and in the store costs three or four times more than some of just shops in the store. i am a forecaster of the belief, pontificating of what stores need to do. where they need to do is make of the environment in the store more exciting, more connection with the custom more -- customer. they have to relate with the customer from an expense point of view and a relationship point of view. how many transactions will happen today?
that is not the key. the key really becomes how many relationships were created between a customer or consumer coming into the store today, and that sales associate in the store. that is the case. michael gould, former ceo of bloomingdale's. coming up, a record week for stocks to the dow and s&p have closed at new highs. first winningheir streak in 20 years. scott wren joins us next with his outlook as we count down to the open. this is bloomberg. ♪
this is "bloomberg daybreak." i am emma chandra. coming up, jerry storch, ceo of hudson's bay. ♪ jonathan: record-breaking week for stocks. the dow and s&p 500 closed at new highs every session. have matched their highest winning streak in 20 years. joining us now is scott wren, wells fargo global equity strategist. just so we understand, what do you tell your clients compared to what you told him before the election? a lot it has not changed in we have been leading towards cyclical sectors. the s&p 500 right now is within the year and target range, which
2290.er the bottom line for us is whoever would have one coat the won the -- would have election, that person would not have been able to change the trajectory of the economy in the in office. 18 months so the market is where they would be fundamentally. it would have been here at hillary clinton -- had hillary clinton won the election. growth,st economic reasonable earnings growth, and continuing improvement in the labor market is continuing into 2017. i want to know your view in financials. you recently boosted it to overweight. what is driving that?
you're looking at a steepening yield curve versus the fact about what about regulation? is -- and is at the loosening of regulation driving that? scott: it is. some of my clients have said we are chasing this a bit. but what we had to do is look out. this was a paired trade. we were under way to the consumer staples sector. we are more underweight in the consumer staples sector. this is not a three or six month outlet. you need to look at a year or two. you have to look at the steepening yield curve. look at a slowly improving economy, where you see more demand. regulation definitely played into that decision as well. so this is a paired trade, so to speak. but it is also one that will play out over a longer period of
time. since the election, these financials have done well. but they have underperformed tremendously the last couple of years. i think we will see that gap narrow through 2017 and probably most of 2018. jonathan: as a backdrop of the steeper yield curve story, i have put it up behind us. we were steeper but then we started rolling over again. rolled overve not with it. so do we expect this to steepen more? or are people in banks missing the picture in the bond market? scott: i think the curve may steepen a little more. i do not think it will a lot. our fixed income guys are looking at a top, as far as yields, the next six or nine months probably around georgia 50, may be a little higher. but we are not looking at rates to lead tire -- leap higher.
i think the bond market has adjusted to what might happen, which is inflation, but not a lot more inflation. so i think you see a little better gdp growth in the u.s. in 2017. you see a little bit of inflation. but it is not a lot more. and banks have been really hammered down. they are just reacting to what is likely to be a better regulatory situation at a steeper yield curve. nejra: you are advising people to stay invested on earnings, valuation, fundamentals. does the rally started to falter, or do you think it could go on indefinitely? scott: what we have been talking to our clients about prior to the election -- and we still hold the same view -- it is likely the s&p 500 sees its
highest for 2017 somewhere around the middle portion of the year. and it will probably be towards the top end of our target range, which for year 2017 was the same as in 2016. around 2300. somewhere around the middle of the year, we think we see the s&p 500 trade at that level. it is a cyclical move to that. but the second half of the year, we feel the markets start to feel -- worried about inflation that will occur in 2018, mostly because we likely see more wage inflation. and 2017 flatly with where we ended 2016. i still say we look at a potential of recession somewhere in the late 2018-2019 period.
our view out this year has not changed much. nejra: all right. if you are investing in equities, look out for the second half of 2017. scott wren, wells fargo senior global equity strategist, thanks for joining us. time for other stories making headlines. here is emma chandra. emma: thank you. opec's final push to get an agreement on production cuts has time for other stories making headlines. hereshifted to iran and russia,o was not a member of the cartel. so far, they have not been able details.ut the opec ministers are scheduled to meet next week. the british economy showed no third quarter after next from the brexit vote. consumers and businesses increased spending. gdp rose 5/10 of 1%. forthe forecast for growth next year has been slashed. the following pound is expected to squeeze consumers by pushing
up the cost of imports. and amazon is looking to get a foothold in the middle east. itzon is in talks to acquire a dubai-based retailer, souq.com. neither company is commenting. that is your bloomberg business flash. i am emma chandra. nejra: thanks. industrythe biggest trade selloff may be the biggest in the year. that is on your battle of the charts. this is bloomberg. ♪
thought was it a good idea to take on a treasury chart against lisa abramowicz? biggesthart is will the treasury selloff end? what this chart shows is that the selloff is the most overdone since this gauge started in 1970 three. the 14 day relative strength index reached 17.48. signals aelow 30 rebound is due. the last time it was like this was in june 2007. the move kicked off a nine-month rally. jonathan: let's take it to lisa. about gold.hinking it is black friday. people are shopping. but one thing they are not buying is gold. since and even before the election, you saw comex gold, selling off. here,
and you have seen 30 year yields climb. how does this make sense? suggest that gold is not an inflation hedge. it is something that is compelling. jonathan: control room decide to wins, but i am so bad at this. i am shutting out to nejra. lisa, sorry. coming up, we get an outlook on the global selloff. -- get's ceo
welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." i am jonathan ferro. david and alix are off. an major benchmarks at all-time high. in the treasury market, we resume these slide, with yields high of two point -- two basis points. and the dollar is weakening. here is what you need to know this hour. eurozone officials say the ecb may not make a call on its bond buying program until early next year. the greek central bank governor tells bloomberg it is too early to discuss tapering. and takeover target -- johnson & johnson is said to a project hellion -- to approach italian -- actelion. oil sees its second week again as opec focuses on negotiations with iran and russia as iraq signaled it
agreed to cut output. the next opec meeting is november 30 in vienna. let's get more with abigail doolittle. you mentioned, we have the u.s. futures for equities in the u.s. indicating modest gains. this puts us on record watch. the dow has put in record closing highs the last three sessions. we will see if they than that. as for one pocket of strength, we are looking at luxury retailers. and coach are trending higher. and ball checks in minnesota and texas's adjusted that electronics, toys, and beauty is doing well, but there were also favorable comments on michael kors. that stock is up 20% this year. and tyburski's more than 50% upside potential for michael coors shares. something that short interest
investors, at around 9%, are not happy about. jonathan: saudi arabia once and opec -- an opec deal before non-opec talks. this according to a delegate. a rather muted response. saudi arabia clearly wanting to switch this up and sorted out before the official meeting at the end of the month. let's get to the bond market. since donald trump's unexpected win, global bonds have lost $2 trillion in value on concerns his spending plan will push up inflation. jpmorgan expects the 10-year 2.28% area. --, all, sri-kumar komalmar joins us --
sri-kumar joins us. we can bring this up for the audience. as you see things, though normalization of the term premium, how significant is that? komal: in terms of the term premium, the term as a premium thispposed to reflect petition for future growth and inflation, both of which is reflected in the premium investors are seeking to get when they're going for 10 year or 30 year versus a two years treasury. that increase in year old -- that increase in yield has been overdone. i do not think trump's policies are likely to push of economic growth significantly in the first year. it will take a wild. it will take other than personal consumerto boost
spending. you will see it is more likely in 2018 or 2019. to makeit is too early a call on that. second, inflation cannot rise to stage, givenurrent how inflation is either depressed or we are in a deflationary situation in the rest of the world. and there are around $7 billion in negative yields. so i do not -- there are $7 trillion. jonathan: in negative yields -- $7 trillion in neagtive yields. jonathan: we learned about a year ago and some change that divergent monetary policy is great in theory. in practice, it is difficult to achieve, because the fed cannot
go alone. will we find that again? absolutely. we found out last december when the fed hiked the one and only time since the financial crisis. that led to a market selloff, especially with the chinese currency weakening substantially in december and january and massive capital outflows during the two months. as you said, the renminbi has gone past and is marching towards seven to the dollar. you will see more rate hikes and little next month. inhink the blowout you see the united states side is based on the expectation of a rate hike next month, which will come. as for after that, i think you will see more of a push back from the rest of the world.
the fed may be determined to hike interest rates because the 10 year yield is higher, and they will be dragged further doing that. to the political reason increase rates are not there now that the election is over. familiar we are all with this story -- each. here is each official in the omc. guesses.l them because it will be difficult to forecast anything in 23rd -- 2017 and 2018. so what will they tell us in a couple of weeks, and how much attention should you pay to it? komal: what they say is what they always say when they increase once.
they tell you that there will be more increases coming. they say it will be at a gradual, moderate pace. they will also tell you they expect the inflation rate to go to the 2% level, like they have the last seven years. so they have little to do with each other. they will make all of these predictions about the need for higher rates in the future, but i do not see them increasing four more times. perhaps a couple of times in the first half of the year, because they want to increase it and the bond rate is higher. , let's sayey do that two more times, in 2017, i see the yield curve starting to flatten, not steepen. because inflation will not pick up. and a decrease in inflation rates will depress as a result. jonathan: so on the one hand, using the selloff on one end of the curve is overdone. you also think a divergence in monetary policy will be learned
all over again. but you remain the dollar bull. at dollar you remain bull but the federal reserve cannot go as far as people think it can? komal: when you look at the dollar exchange rate, we think as the relative price. the price of one commodity with respect to the other. in that case, it depends on what is the demand for each of the two currencies. in this case, the dollar of theh is a deflection weakness of the euro, the weakness of the pound-sterling as a result of brexit, and yen, which should not be at 112 but at 130 to 150. given those, you were talking about dollar strength coming from the rest of the world's weakness. second, if you have a total of
three rate increases between today and the middle of 2017, and even if the rest of the world does not stimulate any further, that will give rise to further dollar strength. so that is my reason for remaining the dollar bull. i started seeing this a few months ago. it is starting to happen. have talkedu and i about the bond market and political risk in the past. we are already going to see a continuation of a backup in yields. that may change, but for the moment, the cleaner way to play political risk as it shifts from bond to fx -- has it shifted from bond to fx? komal: i do not think so. we had a time in which the bond market was seriously distorted , whereral-bank policy
you sought countries like italy, yields camece -- down in italy. and even france, the trading was way below u.s. yields. that was clearly not a sufficient reflection of the country's risk in the past. powerth central bank being limited in terms of what it is able to do, i think we see more reality in plays and the bond market. at the same time, the exchange rate will also reflect the differences in political risk. in short, you see the differences in political risk across countries deflected in both markets. i am a believer in free markets. i like the market to reflect the prices. so in that viewpoint, the changes we have are immensely seetive one ic -- when i central-bank power reduced
because the markets pushed them to be more disciplined. jonathan: i imagine a good portion of our audience are agreeing with you. president ofar, sri-kumar global industries. for now, we go to emma chandra. president of turkey is threatening to reopen borders and flood europe with refugees. lawmakers called on the you to wristband turkeys -- called on the e.u. to suspend' turkey's talks. in iraq, at least 73 people were a gas in a car bombing at station. islamic state militants are claiming responsibility for the attack, the deadliest since july, when a car bomb killed 300 people. and u.s. allies are trying to
discourage the incoming administration from ignoring the iran nuclear deal. has vowed to scrap or renegotiate the deal. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am emma chandra. this is bloomberg. jonathan: thank you. coming up, holiday shopping season in the u.s. kicks off. it accounts for nearly one third output.ers' bay's jerryh hudson storch. and futures are positive with major benchmarks at record highs now. this is bloomberg. ♪
jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg. i am jonathan ferro. there was meant to be a technical meeting for opec on monday, but saudi arabia once a -- wants an opec deal before non-opec meetings. they will not send anyone to that meeting monday. crude down about 1.5%. a signal perhaps that the talks ahead of next week are not going well. in the u.s., the national retail federation estimates 137 million consumers will make purchases in stores or online.
we are joined now by jerry storch, ceo of hudson's bay, which owns saks. great to have you with us. ofi have been told a couple times that people will look at the s&p 500, then go out and shop. when you are in the boardroom recently, did you have that discussion? jerry: no. we are focused on delivering a fantastic experience for our customers for the holiday. it is black friday, the super bowl for retailers. we are focused on providing terrific deals and fantastic customer service. with michaelspoke gould, formally or bloomingdale's, and said that there needs to be more focused on things like experience instead of price. do you share that view? we totally agree, especially the part about experience. one of the most dominant forces of our generation is clearly the
growth of the internet. that is great for retail and us, because we are focused on having a combined paradigm that focuses on the power of our customers. but if we want customers to come to physical stores, they need to be great stores. so we will spend a quarter billion dollars just on the saks fifth avenue flagship just and that one store. and we are doing that all over the world. in germany, we bought a galleria spend $1we will billion -- one billion euros to update that. theur focus is that department store has to be the department store of the future. have to go because they want to be there. jonathan: well, mike says there may be too much money spent on the online presence and not
enough in the physical presence. do you offset those things or look at them next to each other? jerry: the easy jobs are taken, so you have to do both. there is no way you can have an inferior real-life experience and compete with online. hand, we can use our physical space against them. one online retailer friend told me that he and these people in our dressing rooms. that you can go to the store, someone can help you, and customers can try things on. that is huge, the immediacy. but some customers choose to be on the internet. the internet is democratic, for everyone. the internet is a tool, like electricity that everyone must use. but make no mistake -- you have to be great on the internet to
get the customer. go online orse to into the store. jonathan: but you have to spend on their online presence, on the physical presence, you have a thinner avenue? --ry: well, it is the wide reason why we are focused on consolidation. that is why we have continued to grow through acquisition. is to add to this scale, because scale is imperative in order to make these. jonathan: the u.k. is on sale for you now, isn't it? jerry: it is interesting. a lot of luxury has migrated so people who can decide where to buy it are going to the u.k. to make those purchases. it is amazing how capitalism works. jonathan: it is an opportunity. would have to be the
right company of the right price at the right time. but we are more focused now. we have made a lot of acquisitions recently. moved.n: the s&p 500 has the bond market has shifted. adopted toted -- what it thinks is a new reality under trump. what a consumer move more quickly than wall street, and what would be the right time? jerry: we are focused on what we can control to a last year, we were talking about the weather. how can we not talk about that when it is shorts weather during christmas season? thewe cannot control weather. i am grateful it is colder now than last year. and we cannot control the presidential election and global politics. so we will focus on what we can control and try to do a great job with that. jonathan: jerry storch, ceo of hudson's bay. coming up, m&a had for j&j.
reporter joins us now. you and i spoke on the radio about this. not the first time this company has been a target. but j&j is not the first person -- manuel: j&j would have been in the top five, but this company has the largest cash rate to be spent. they have said publicly in the past that they would love to buy across the different business platforms. pharma is one of them. actelion would be one of the rare biotechnology companies that have been very successful, based in social and. in bloomberg gadfly, it is written that history matters. they have had a series of
experts come in, and they said "no thanks." and every time they have, they have come off well off the back of it. but there's price matter more than history here? manuel: good point. actelion is a very fascinating they, for those following form industry. it is terrific. it is very attached to the founder and ceo of the company. he has started off approaches in the past. we wonder why it may differ this time. so the history and track rate of this company has been terrific. but this time around, it is true the pipeline is looking different, and they will face steeper competition. so it may actually be a good time for them to move on. jonathan: and stock trading at
an all-time high. it is the biggest pop since june of 2014. manual by corey -- manuel baigorri, great to have you. the opening bell coming up next on "bloomberg daybreak." equities at an all-time high. futures positive. 55 points on the dow. positive almost six in the s&p. treasuries lower with yields up to, three basis points earlier, now just up a single digit. the dollar is weaker, with the dollar-yen at 113. this is bloomberg. ♪
and equities at an all-time high. as you hear the opening , another asset class, treasuries unchanged at 2:35. we were lower with yields higher. of 106.-dollar north -- of 1.06. let's get you up to speed. : we have the dow, s&p 500 and nasdaq. the day after thanksgiving volume has dropped over the last seven years. mentioned we are on record watch. record highs for the last three days.
as for the small cap, right now on pace for a record close. now up 15 days in a row to close up. and the longest winning streak since february 1996. as for more strength relative to a sector, we are looking at retail winners. we have shares of amazon trading higher. online sales are at a record $2 billion. they're looking at black friday to be better than the holiday seat -- better. they are increasing discounts from last year. indications are pretty strong for both of these companies earlier in the day. it's interesting amazon would
perform well into the end of the year. amazon tends to trade down 4% in the broader market area it will be interesting to see if amazon score thisa better year. jonathan: one of the dominant this rally is that bonds have not come around on the ride. earlier this year it was all-time yields and -- all-time lows and equity yields. the white line continuing to rally. a global company strategist with this chart in mind. this disconnect, back to tradition? guest: they start to normalize race and normalize the s&p 500. in that chart is ultimately a new leap of faith
the market has to take. nominal gdp and real gdp is going to start escalating. planeal risk under the new is the inflationary risk. if he does follow through, the main risk to the market is some sort of higher inflation without and earningsd gdp growth after this sort of initial sugar high wears off. >> this has been a big run-up. would you stand in the way of it? >> i would not. you have a lot of people behind the benchmark. before dividends a lot of people are saying -- if you look at the fourth quarter over the last eight years it really has been a
strong quarter. you look at the fresh highs, the nasdaq and the dow and the s&p if you are a technician who went to mars and came back and saw all of these things, you said this -- you would say this is a volatile market. you have an absence of news flow after the election. putting the european elections aside at the moment. between now and here and jump is going to make more appointments. is there any real news flow that is going to counteract that? congress really gets on board with some of his expanding projects. jonathan: is pretty genetic to
say something may not come out of european politics. we have gone from searching for chasing -- st the chart you want to bring up is just treasuries. that was the story in june. it is just not the story now. charge wheniew that you see treasury yields above the equity yields of the s&p 500? >> the front rates that are working will continue to work. the easy money is behind us. those types of cyclical recovery against a very substantial fiscal stimulus plan is going to concede to work. stocks, thenology sector must mute political
noise, it is google being google. in a way we can grant sector rotational forces. you can take out your classic growth fundamental playbook and work for that. i think those will recover once we fight for this sugar high rotational forces here. energy working to the tune of opec. there is more downside risk to come. beenh stocks have extraordinary -- been up to extraordinary high levels. jonathan: can you walk me through that and why we do have a fed paradox. has articulated he
wants to fight and fx war. since he has been elected, he has raised interest rates, raised inflationary expectations. relative to interest rates on japan and china, particularly europe, what has he done? he has strengthened the dollar. yellen has another couple of months on her. does he go in and put in something more decidedly hawkish? that is the fed paradox.
what we are looking at is a is ation is behind of -- condition where the worst is behind us. those are starting to get attractive again. the summer is coming back hard. there is going to be more headlines about all-time highs. what is the one thing watching right now that is the flashing light for you? >> that could be a huge event. if those go populist and you get
concerns, thatl is going to ricochet into global sentiment. i don't think it is necessarily an immediate derailment of this movement in u.s. equity. thingsly opec is another that is looming here. something polish for for oilomething bullish -- jonathan: great to have you with us. coming up, shifting focus. oil trimming its second weekly game -- weekly gain. a production cuts next. we are going to talk about more all-time highs. north of 19 k.
is said to have made and initial take over of $17 billion. this would expand their pharmaceutical hype line. -- pharmaceutical pipeline. we see just modest moves here, a bit mixed. we will keep an eye on whether those can move higher. mean, what this all may we take a look at btv. we see a very nice uptrend. belowst recently popped its 200 day moving average. indicate jayant j mame -- j&j may drop down.
perhaps a near-term drop but over the long term that would appear to be bullish. let's take it to the commodity market. wti and brent. and opec meeting on monday. negotiations focused on iran and russia to cut production. for more i can speak to bloomberg's chief energy correspondent. he joins us now from london. let's begin first of all what the latest news in the last 20 minutes or so, the saudi's will not be sending any officials on monday. happening is on monday we are expecting and meeting of opec and opec officials to discuss production
cuts. cannot talk to russia and other opec countries until he has sorted out his and turn all debate how to do the production cuts. arabia is not going to be there and what opec is going to do is not a high level technical .eeting a consensus has been missing for the last month and a half, how to achieve that. it really increases the odds we may nothey meet have a production deal. >> let's take a listen to what he had to say. >> it is not going to make much of a significant difference.
i think russia's cooperative on this matter over the last year. i think they are probably -- we will encourage them to come along. jonathan: let's call this a high-stakes blinking contest. saudi arabia doesn't want to do all the heavy lifting. are they going to follow? guest: what they are saying, if you don't cut promotion with us there is not going to be a deal. that is a clear deal. saying it is not going to participate. to decidehree days whether you want to participate in a deal and opec happens. probably it can collaborate. the price of oil is going to drop significantly.
jonathan: the price rolling over , if you do get a deal it basically puts the floor at $50 -- $50.hat happens what happens if you don't get a deal? guest: i think the consensus is come the new year there is not a new do it -- not a new deal with the oil prices. i have some physical traders. february -- i think the stakes are very high. opec cuts, you build around $50 per barrel. jonathan: by definition you can
only die once but a lot of people are had -- are in the habit of saying opec is dead. a bit of a turnaround for the cartel. what does it mean for the future of opec? >> the political obituary has been written to many times. there is not an opec deal in vienna. it really means the effectiveness of the cartel. notrobably means we are going to see production in a very long time. opec really needs hot water to work. give it really low prices. maybe they come around and actually decide to act.
we are going to see oil prices dropping on tuesday. >> have year on bloomberg, chief energy correspondent. 48-34. just north of $47. it is bloomberg with vonnie quinn standing by. vonnie: we are to be concentrating on europe. $800 billion. it was quite sad over thanksgiving dinner. what does this referendum mean? will we see further repercussions? we are going to be kicking things off. i know you were speaking earlier
. we are going to see how target is faring this year. innow you were seeking off death sneaking off in the break for the show. trumps working holiday, the u.s. president-elect working to keep u.s. jobs from moving to mexico even while he is on vacation. markets york in the about 21 minutes in the session. a quarter of 1% .n the dow this is bloomberg.
on vacation he is tried to take u.s. jobs. is making progress to try to get a subsidy of united technology and preserve 1400 jobs there. great to have you with us. there were some people that thought maybe we would get a big administration announcement over thanksgiving holiday. now are we expecting something like that? >> i can tell you there are expected to be announcements in president trump's cabinet to the may -- to be named sometime early next week. carson, who dr. ben is expected to be named to his hot secretary. and it comes on the heels of the other day when south carolina
governor nikki haley being named to the -- named to the u.n. ambassador. the more moderate wing of the republican party of the established lane of the republican party pushing for mitt romney. this is skeptical given their long history. >> how big of a deal is this? guest: this is a campaign promise trump has said on the deal. repeatedly.ail i think he's trying to signal he is following through on his campaign promises. i think he is foreshadowing to the firth -- to the fourth quarter of next year to lower that corporate tax rate. -- his argument to be
argument being to incentivize businesses. jonathan: we are almost 26 minutes into the session here in new york. potentially a fourth straight day of games. more record highs on the dow and on the s&p 500. treasuries sliding throughout much of the day. weaker, talking the trend that we have seen over the last month. that does it for myself from new york city. up next is bloomberg .arkets
from london -- vonnie: we're going to take you from washington to vienna and carry stories from the u.k. and paris. showing there biggest treasury market selloff is coming to an end. why our markets ignoring those signs? one of europe's biggest asset managers ways in. ecb councilmember says the bank has a long way to go to meet inflation targets. more of that interview ahead. a bigger online selection to keep up with amazon this holiday season. target ceo