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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  November 25, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EST

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from new york to zürich and cover stories out of greece, the u.k., and wall street in the next hour. here's what we are watching. shares of europe's largest biotech firm jumping after johnson & johnson approach the company for potential takeover. more on this potential $17 billion high up ahead. technical indicators show the biggest selloff in years is coming to an end. vonnie: wire market ignoring the signs? we talked with fixed income investor, next. and the holiday shopping outlook. the target ceo telling us his company has the advantage over amazon because of its physical stores. nejra: let's have a look at
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where european equities are trading, with just under 13 minutes to the close. i have across asset picture of western europe looking at gnma. switzerland's smi up 1.1%, one of the best performers in western europe. portugal higher, up .5%. gains in luxembourg, denmark, belgium as well. in the fx space, a lot of it is about the weaker dollar story today come even though we had a stronger dollar story for the past couple of weeks. first --up .5%, the swiss franc at .3% as well. ae dollar basically comparing weekly advance. the bloomberg dollar index falling from a decade high. in terms of what's happening in fixed income, we are seeing 10 year yields coming down, and the periphery down eight basis points in portugal. also down five basis points today in italy. we are also seeing the 10 year yields coming down on the german
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blonde. -- the german bund. thoseker oil price around concerned that there isn't going to be a deal reached at the opec meeting on november 30. brent crude down 2.7%, $47.56 a barrel. of what's happening in european stocks, stoxx 600 for much unchanged right now. .1%. it is near one-month high, also set for a third weekly gain, the longest streak of weekly game since july. all of this bearing in mind the volume is lower than the 30 day average, around 40% lower. in terms of what's happening in the sector space, a little bit of a mixed picture here. we health care stocks leading the gains, i will come onto that little more in just a moment. energy lagging with weaker oil price down .7%. we're also seeing materials which includes the commodity producers off by .2% and
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financials underperforming as well. i wanted to bring up actively in. what we've seen is the shares spiking, hitting a record high. we got some breaking news, they have confirmed the approach by johnson & johnson about a possible transaction. we've seen shares of actively -- acted -- activity on aoar -- soar. vonnie: getting a check on u.s. majors in the details of what's going on in the u.s. market. it's a shortened trading day, but we have some trading today. abigail: record highs in the u.s. once again, the dow, s&p 500, nasdaq are all on pace right now for record highs, for the dow in the s&p 500, this would be the fourth record close in a row, and the longest streak the record closes since 2014.
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some real strength. as for the russell 2000, even more strength right now. up for the 15th straight day, the longest running streak since 1996, and on pace for record close, the ninth in a row. thereal strength here for u.s. stocks. as for would leading the charge today, from a sector standpoint, looking at rate sensitive sectors, including utilities, telecom, and real estate. all of these indexes, s&p, sector indexes are trading higher on the day. what could be happening here is the fact that we have yields and rate basically on pause come up ever so slightly. it could make the high dividends for some of the stocks in these indexes look a little more attractive. these stocks may look more attractive on the day, but one thing that looks less attractive for utilities is valuation. #btv, 5116. this is going back to 2009. in white, we have utility index,
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in blue, the 10 year yield. we see that when the yields drop at these high dividend stocks to become more attractive to investors. and the inverse happens as it happened recently with rates rising in the utility index coming in. interestingly is the point on valuation. we have the price-earnings ratio, we see that it is well above 15, pretty high for these stocks, maybe some more weakness could be ahead for utilities. finally, surrounded out on the black friday, with retail stocks. looking at ever so slight gains for amazon. we are not having a big reaction on black friday for these retailers. we do have amazon the e-commerce giant that did report record sales of $2 billion on thanks giving day, macy's, tiffany, and trading and kohl's is down. e-commerce is beating bricks and mortar. vonnie: a couple of days left in the long black friday weekend.
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let's check in on erik johnson with bloomberg first word news. eirk: the president of turkey is planning to reopen the borders and fled europe with millions of migrants. was reacting to a vote in the european parliament. lawmakers called on the eu to suspend turkey's measures of talks -- membership following a failed coup. as the eu goes further, to let them leave for europe. a prosecutor in paris says five men arrested on sunday were planning a terrorist attack in france. as early as next week. he said the suspects were getting their orders from islamic state member, taste in iraq or syria. the five were arrested in strasburg and marseille. fires in israel have forced thousands of people to flee their homes. hardest hit was a city where some 50,000 people were evacuated.
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israeli leaders raised the possibility that palestinians liberally set the blazes. have arrested 13 suspects. meanwhile, israelis have accepted offers from egypt and jordan to send firefighting help. a judge has found the suspect in the deadly charleston south carolina -- charleston, south carolina shooting competent to stand trial. jury selection in the trial of monday.of starts he's accused of killing nine churchgoers after a bible study class last year. the government of colombia has signed a revised peace treaty with marxist rebels. place almost two months after colombian voters rejected the first agreement. thedeal is aimed at ending 52 year-long civil war that killed more than 200,000 people. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm erik johnson, and this is
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bloomberg. nejra: thanks. now the european central banks governing council will have to decide on december 8 whether to extend its $1.8 trillion qe program beyond the current march deadline. as of now, there appears to be little appetite for tapering. guy johnson spoke about it with the honest onerous -- the governor of the bank of greece. >> monetary policy will continue to be in, writing and inflation will rise at a different -- a decent level, to present as lily lower. at the long distance from the target. far too early to be talking about tapering. >> far too early. nejra: joining us now to discuss the outlook for europe as well as the u.s. is a fixed-income investment manager with aberdeen , with $402ers
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billion under management. james, is it too early to be talking about tapering? james: it depends what you mean by too early. economically speaking, the ecb is still a long way from hitting their mandate. as we know, that's really not the end of the discussion of the debate here. we are probably questioning is the effectiveness of the policy. it's interesting to hear what's people.different they are all quite guarded in terms of the language they use. no consistent picture emerging from what i hear. there are enough uncertainties to make me feel there are conversations about whether or not they can discontinue with this pace of bond buying. there are technical constraints and there's very little evidence this is actually doing with that out too. made their job easier post-u.s. elections that we have been seeing this backup and yields in europe as elsewhere around the world.
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how do you think the discussion is going to play out at this meeting that's coming up? , of all the challenges course, that are facing europe. according to you, it's a mess. one are the risks of it not giving the ecb this devilish tilt? -- dovish tilt? mr. athey: even if they don't taper and extend the program, the language see is forced to use because of the various opinions on the committee gives of qerket that hint infinity, which a lot of market participants probably were expecting, we are talking about qe was some sort of definitive end date. it might than markets expected. the job and you'll made easier, in a sense, a complicated it because the market impact of them telling us it's going to taper on lb be hugely magnified by virtue of the fact that what's happening in the u.s. has unleashed the bond curve that's been
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hibernating for quite a long time. and frustrated for quite a long time. then late but got the bit between their teeth and we are seeing that in place. if the ecb were to double down on that right now, i could see some really dramatic moves. i'm curious how the ecb will be talking about the italy referendum. forllegal to know constitutional changes, does that mean we might be looking at an exit scenario? mr. athey: when you say an exit scenario, do you mean italy exiting from the eurozone? vonnie: yes. mr. athey: there are so many possible scenarios with respect to the italian referenda. it's difficult to come up with even a sensible base case. there is definitely a route that could lead towards further breakup fears. and we know they can quickly become quite self fulfilling from market pressures. i can't think that has to be the base case for the near term, basically, even if there were to
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be election, even if that were them being the majority party, is not entirely clear that the lower house which is currently being debated by the constitutional court was stand. and if so, you'd end up still with a situation where while they were the dominant party, the didn't really have free reign to do exactly as they wanted. and there are legalities with respect to even the eurozone referendum within italy. whereby there's potentially a situation where they have to have a referendum to decide if they can have a referendum. italian politics being italian politics. i'm afraid it's probably going to be quite complex and messy for a time. there's also the former prime minister's, weighing in on the fact that they don't have to be a brexit. how much in disarray is the current ecb? are they putting all of this belittle interference out of their minds? mr. athey: i will leave the brexit question, i think we
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probably done that i deal with brexit not being a brexit to death. but it's hugely difficult. we know that. monetary policy has been under huge pressure globally for good number of years now. and nowhere has that been more acute and more troublesome than within the eurozone. we know why that is. we know the politics that underlie this problem. we know the geographical splits, the very different economies. theany running 8% surplus, pressures that those imbalances put on the whole system, and therefore, the difficulties using one monetary policy for the whole region. the story's been around well before 1999 what we are seeing now it playing out in real time. how the ecb manages the politics versus economics versus the reduced pressure for reform which comes from the qe policy, it's very difficult to say. but based on what mario draghi didn't say the last press conference, based on what we've heard from other government council members in the meantime, i certainly fear that we are heading towards a change in ecb
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policy stance going forward, and that's when the lead to some volatility in the markets. earlier, he said if the ecb doesn't stand, we could see really big moves. what kind of moves and we talking about? mr. athey: with italy already trading, closing in over 200 overabundant -- over bund already, and with the ecb sounding hawkish, would it surprise me if italy traded 100 wider than it is right now? i don't the get wood. does it selloff because there's or there'suying, pressure in the periphery. it's difficult to come up with a solid base case. it's been flattening because of the hunt for yield and the ecb bond buying. as an awful lot of different moving parts and some are pointing in the same direction and other those maybe not.
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italy and spain have been a big beneficiary of the policies. nejra: on treasuries, looked a lot of that widening spread itween treasuries and bund, suggests that treasuries are fairly valuable right now. where do you see the 10 year yield going? i think the story has been overplayed with respect to the driving contributor's. we're seeing what the fed was telling us they were going to do anyways. if that's the case and we are going to see some progress policies from trump, i think there's an upside on the 10 year treasury yield. going forward, definitely would expect to see bigger moves up in the yield that i would down. athey from aberdeen asset management, thank you for joining us. vonnie: breaking news now from president-elect donald trump's transition team. bloomberg learned that the trunk team is set to name katie
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mcfarland as deputy national security adviser. general michael flynn had already been named national security advisor. mcfarland served in the next him, ford, and reagan administrations and is a member of the council of foreign relations. she also made a run to win the for thean nomination u.s. senate seat in new york in 2006. we learned earlier from the transition team that trouble name more staff level of women's today. katie mcfarland, deputy national security adviser. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: live from london and new york, i'm vonnie quinn. nejra: i'm nature rich, this is
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the european close on "bloomberg markets." 15 minutes until the close of equity trading. the latest look at the biggest stories in the news right now. european union regulators are in settlement talks with banks suspected of breaking currency markets. at supporting to people familiar with the case. vonnie: it's all part of an investigation that led to multibillion dollar fines in the u.s. and the u.k. barclays and the hsbc reason was that their currency trading will be reviewed by the eu. millions of americans have begun buying gifts for the holidays. walmart and target are trying to keep up with amazon, they are atnting on heavier discounts a bigger online flexion. earlier we spoke with targets ceo, brian cornell. >> we want to make sure it's easy for our guests to shop our brand anyway they want. yesterday was a big digital day, the biggest day in company history. vonnie: according to the research for market tracking,
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targets and grudge -- average price cut grew from 36% to 38% this year. that is your bloomberg business flash for this hour. onming up, shares of acteli are soaring on rumors of a takeover. this is bloomberg. ♪
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nejra: live from london, i'm a wrench a rich counting you down to the european close. -- nejra cehic, can you down to the european close. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. actes of swiss drugmaker lion after johnson & johnson approach the company for a possible takeover. joining us is one of the reporters who broke this story. many well, give us the latest --
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manuel, give us the latest. manuel: they confirmed this just moments ago. we did a story yesterday evening, it's really fantastic. one of the most successful biotech companies in europe, the biggest one. they just received another approach. ofs been a long story back-and-forth with potential suitors and activist investor years ago tried to force the company into a sale process but it didn't ask -- didn't succeed. let's see if johnson & johnson makes it happen. nejra: what's different this time? manuel: the company has grown especially. the ceo and founder all -- founder is very attached to the company. sell,ery reluctant to he's a scientist and he really believes in the growth of the
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biotech industry. question, whyt would they be willing to sell now? if you look at the pipeline of drugs for the company, there are clear symptoms it could be drying up and could be a really good window for him to step aside and let other drugmakers take the next level. actelion was convinced they didn't want to sell, what kind of techniques could they employ to get out of this mess? is there any kind of poison pill strategy that could be involved? manuel: that's a great question. i'm sure that other drugmakers on top of j&j will be looking at the situation closely. monitoring, analyzing whether or not it makes sense for them to make a move, both in europe and in the u.s. the very well-known hot biotech stock.
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i wouldn't be surprised if other strata jump into the fray. vonnie: what about generic competitors? portfoliof its drug have a long time before we have to worry about generics? manuel: that's a good point. the company is facing a roll out next year. that's one of the reasons why it might be a good time for the founder and ceo to explore a sale. he's come across grace access. he's been an amazing company, but challenging -- challenges remain ahead. for those reasons, it could be a good moment for him to actually potentially sell the company. nejra: bloomberg's manuel baigorri. let's take a look where european
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markets are trading as we head to the close. the stoxx 600 near one-month high, up .2%. the ftse 100 pushing slightly higher. we are flat on the dax and slightly higher on the cac 40. with look at the fx market, the weaker dollar story today with a bloomberg dollar index falling from a decade high. that means the euro is pushing , sterling much $1.24.ed it's a bit of a diversions from what's happening in the u.s. and in europe. yield up in the u.s., down in europe. this is bloomberg. ♪
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live from london and new york, this is the european close. stocks finishing the day in european trading. let's take you through all of the market action today.
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i have to say there has been less action than normal with volume down below the 30-the average. we have still seen some movement on the left. on the left, i had across dr. western europe. smi up 1.1%. gains in denmark, belgium, luxembourg as well. it is a weaker dollar story. the index falling from a decade-high, meaning we are seeing a stronger euro .4%. the swiss franc pushing higher. sterling pretty much unchanged today. in fixed income space, a different picture. we are seeing the 10-year yield in the u.s. move higher. in europe, we are seeing most of the yields move lower. germany down two basis points. we have seen the 10-year go down. portugal down six basis points. we are seeing moves lower elsewhere in the periphery.
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focusmodities, a lot of on oil with more doubt about the opec deal being reached on november 30. 47.e down closing pretty much unchanged. we have seen some gains creep in at the close. it -- is up almost 2% -- .2%. set for the longest streak of weekly gains since july. three weeks of gains, the longest streak since july. as we take a look at various sectors, health care leading up 1.4%. that largely down to actelion. we are seeing energy underperforming down .7% on the weaker oil price. financials down .3%, perhaps tracking the bond yields. materials down, too. overall, more in the green in terms of industry groups.
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finally, i wanted to bring you to actelion. this is a two-day chart. we are up 19% over. . two days intraday, we have seen actually rise the most ever and hit a record high after j&j was set to make a takeover approach for this drugmaker. actelion confirmed to say the takeover approach had been made. vonnie: thanks. i am taking a look at country market movers. the u.s. is the focus. are inthe major indices the green for this friday session. not a huge amount of movement upwards. gains weolding onto have seen since the election. it will be interesting to see if that holds for the year. composite for the new york stock exchange, they are all higher today. we will look at currencies in a moment.
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have a look at a stronger currencies versus the u.s. dollar today. some commodity currencies but also the euro which is having an impact on the dollar index, particularly dxy. but also the bloomberg dollar index which is a varied basket of currencies. we will have a look at currencies now. the dollar index for merely against the euro and the yen. it is at a high even though it is down a little on the session. kenedurkish lira wea to the point with the bank could not not act. there was a movement yesterday. it is regaining all the losses it made. not a huge amount of movement today that a lot of movement yesterday after the central-bank action. the south african central bank did not move. that has a problem because it has an inflation and growth
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problem. is stuck between a rock and a hard place. it cannot lows and it -- it cannot raise or lower rates. the rate is not particularly attractive for the south african central bank. .237 on the 10-year. i just stuck in the italy 10-year yield because it is a fascinating time to be watching that. erik johnson has more from our london newsroom. >> the u.s. and its allies are taking steps aimed at discouraging the incoming trump administration from abandoning the iran nuclear deal. according to the "wall street journal," they're pushing iran to reduce the stockpile of radioactive material to well below the level agreed on. president-elect donald trump has vowed to scrap the deal or renegotiate it. china is warning u.s. navy patrols pose a threat to its sovereignty and security
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interests. according to a chinese government think tank, american ships and planes carried out more than 700 patrols in the south china sea last year. china says it is the u.s.'s number one surveillance target. italy's prime minister has reaffirmed he will quit if voters reject constitutional reforms on december 4. he told the newspaper a so-called technocratic government would not serve the government while. the prime minister has said the reforms will make italy easier to govern. final white house christmas tree of the obama administration. michelle obama was there as the tree was delivered. it is a 19-football douglas fir from pennsylvania. a special election in london was to focus on expansion at heathrow airport. it has become the first test of
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how prime minister theresa may is handling brexit. conservative lawmakers quit her party to run as independent and supports leaving the e.u. a liberal democrat who is his name challenger wants another brexit referendum. the vote takes place next week. dayal news 24 hours a powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am erik johnson and this is bloomberg. nejra: thanks so much. more signs the u.k. is weathering the brexit fallout. 0.35% in the second quarter but still ahead of estimates. household and business investment spending also edged up. this comes days after philip hammond cut the growth forecast for next year in his autumn statement. joining us to break it down is the u.k. economist with bloomberg intelligence.
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what was the biggest surprise? was it th business spending? business spending business spes sensitive to heightened uncertainty. it grew .9% on the quarter. the question is, why did it do that? economists thought it would fall. a couple of reasons. maybe a lot of the decisions were taken prior to the referendum 12 or 18 months ago and it is showing up now in the national accounts. it may also be the case credit conditions in the u.k. remain relatively loose. the bank of england have a lot to do with that. when credit conditions are have, uncertainty tends to less of an effect on investment. there has been evidence out noting that point. i think that may have something to do with it. howa: we keep talking about brexit has not been as bad for the economy as people expected.
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how much longer is this going to last? according to a number of forecasts, things are going to get worse. >> i think so. uncertainty effect, it may take time to ramp up. i think the thing that is baked in his we have seen depreciation in sterling. we know that is going to squeeze real incomes next year and slow consumer spending. think a lot of forecasters are moving towards that as their main reason for slowing in growth next year. they downgraded the forecast this week. investmentbusiness effect but also the squeeze on real incomes. vonnie: when our c.e.o.'s looking to see reaction in these figures? c.e.o.'s can have a different forecast to economists. what are they saying? >> i am sorry.
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you will have to repeat the question. i did not catch that. vonnie: c.e.o.'s exporting, , when do, and hiring they see a slowdown as opposed to economists? >> that is interesting. c.e.o.'s who are on the frontline see a very different world to macroeconomists like myself. we see things at a very high level. we just look at the macro data. is speak to different individuals and they say they are delaying investment projects. i genuinely think it is only a matter of time before we see that show up in the headline macro numbers. it is worth saying with investment in the u.k., is extremely choppy and volatile. i think the broader trend will be slowing. what you do not know as well is the counterfactual. investment may have grown more strongly had the u.k. remained
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in the european union, so there is that element to it as well. vonnie: it seems on the side of the atlantic, there are more voices like richard branson, tony blair, john major, coming out and saying this does not need to happen. we thought it was a done deal. as an economist, you can worry about that when you are forecasting 12 and 18 months. it is making economists' jobs difficult in britain, isn't it? >> absolutely. one of the things in these uncertainty gauges is they capture the dispersion of forecasts. after the vote, the dispersion was enormous. you had economists addicting recessions. some predicting growth slowdowns. there is more consensus now. the numbers now highlight how difficult it will be over the companiesnths and how
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need to tread with caution. i think it will be very difficult to get a handle on how this will play out because there is no precedent for what is going on in the u.k. and what the u.k. is about to go through. decisione chancellor's to borrow more to spend, is that going to help or hinder growth? >> i will not have much of an effect. we are still focused on deficit reduction in the u.k. the point to take away is he has made room to apply fiscal stimulus if he deems necessary. the has room to do so if he sees a slowdown coming. nejra: dan hansen, thanks so much for joining us. vonnie? vonnie: the e.c.b. is facing a decision on december 8 as to whether to extend the $1.8 trillion stimulus program. some policy makers are saying the central bank may put off decisions about the future of the program until early next year. guy johnson spoke with the e.c.b. governing council member and bank of greece governor in
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athens about the growing tensions surrounding rising bond yields and the impact of the bond buying program. >> it is true bond prices and yields have changed. we are entering perhaps a new era. show our policy works. inflation is on the rise, as i said before. we look at all of this data on december 8 and we will decide. one fed policy will continue to be accommodating until it arrives at 2% or slightly lower. it is still a long-distance from this target. >> far too early to be talking about tapering. >> far too early, exactly. >> one thing we have seen as a result of donald trump's
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election is having a steeper yield curve. is that desirable? >> from the bank's point of view, it is. i think it is a desirable effect. it helps the banks. >> it does raise borrowing costs. >> yes, but if growth also goes up, it does not matter because now the most important problem is low growth. if growth improves, it is expected bond yields will be on the rise. >> you talk about rising inflation. some way out, inflation is not going to get back to target. that is something the market is pricing in at the moment and yield data seems to indicate. janet yellen talks about running a hot economy. she has seen this. it would be interesting to know what she thinks now. she thinks overshooting on inflation is something central
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banks should think about. is that something the e.c.b. can think about as well? >> not yet. the cycle difference now in europe compared to the united states, we are in a different phase of the cycle. >> do you think it would be desirable to point out to the markets even if when we get to inflation targets, they are running beyond that a little bit, that is something the bank will tolerate? >> we have not discussed that it all. vonnie: that was the bank of greece governor in an exclusive interview. more "markets" ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: live from london and new
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york, this is the european close on bloomberg. it is time for options insight with abigail doolittle. abigail: joining me today for options insight is scott of trading advantage. thanks for joining us on this day after thanksgiving. this day after thanksgiving. i hope you had a great thanksgiving. we are looking at quiet trading on this day after thanksgiving. volumes down significantly. what are your thoughts with stocks at record highs again? >> the volume earlier in the week to me was the indicator. barring anything really odd coming out of opec next week or anything else we see, it looks like this rally will continue. that said with the vix trading where it is now, down near historical lows, to me there is no reason people that want to
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stay fully vested in the market, why they should not by sun protection. protection insurance in the market place via the vix or spx options are just about as cheap and inexpensive as it gets right now. i think we are going higher. i think we can rise through the end of the year. the other side says take a little off the table by buying this protection because it is too cheap not to. abigail: that is an interesting point on the vix. we do have it at record lows. complacency seems to be high. lots of complacency. what could reverse that? what kind of event could reverse that? >> obviously, anything out of the trumphouse or party that he does out of the ordinary, maybe he says he is going to build a fence, or one
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of these odd statements he made could rattle things. news out of opec could rattle things. any sort of surprise like that. barring any of that, we got through the earnings season ok. retail looks to lead us through the rest of the year. with the banking sector, we have the fed in a couple of weeks. everybody is expecting the interest rate rise. i don't think that will negatively affect the marketplace. we have a big jobs number next friday. unless that is an abysmal number, i don't think that will affect us to the downside. i think it is something that has to come out of the trump side of things that could derail us at this point. abigail: it sounds like you think there's smooth sailing ahead for the stocks in the near term. the stock is up 185% this year. i know you have a trade target. talk us through that. >> absolutely. earlier this week, there was heavy call buying going out to
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regular december expiration all the way up to 100. the option market is pricing in a move of about $5 or so which puts us at the 100 points going out to december. i am buying the 96-100 call spread. i can do that for about $1. that is for regular december expiration. i have about three more weeks on this. based on the momentum of the stock which has been unbelievable, the heavy call buying i saw earlier this week, i really like this move up to 100. it seems that number is going to be a magnet. the downside is my investment of $1. that is my maximum risk. i think the reward to risk on this type of trade, is a 3-1 reward to risk, given how it has traded and the high call buying we saw a earlier this week, i think it is a great trade. abigail: great stuff. thank you for joining us today. nejra: thank you, abigail.
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interesting what scott was saying about put options being too cheap not to buy at the moment with markets at record highs. coming up, it is oil and opec versus global bonds. i take on in the chandra -- emma chandra next. this is bloomberg. >> ♪
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vonnie: it is time for our global battle of the charts where we look at some of the most telling chart of the day and what they mean for investors. you can access these charts on the bloomberg by running the function at the bottom of your screen. we have a special black friday treat. emma chandra is doing battle of the charts for the first time.
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>> i am looking ahead to the opec meeting next week, specifically at russia. russia is under pressure to join with opec and agreed to cut because opec knows it needs significant cooperation with non-members to have significant impact on prices. you can find this chart on the bloomberg. i have plotted russian oil production. that is the white line. i have plotted crude prices on the blue line. thisclark lewisham -- chart clearly shows russia has been increasing production in the last few months. even if they agree to cooperate with opec and cut or freeze next week, the impact of that deal is probably going to be muted. vonnie: masterful presentation. we will definitely have you back. nejra: i'm showing this chart for the second time because i am loving it today. we have been talking about treasuries and the global bond
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rally. the question is whether treasuries are headed for their steepest monthly loss in seven years, whether that selloff has been overdone. i'm looking at the u.s. treasury index and the relative strength index. according to this measure, that selloff has perhaps gone too far, too fast. this is showing it is the most overdone since the gauge started in 1973. the index reaching an unprecedented 17.48 this month. anything below 30's signals a rebound is due. the last time this index was near current levels was june of 2007. guess what happened last time? it kicked off a nine-month rally. both charts certain are going to get plenty of visits just based on your presentations alone. while i really love your chart,
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i'm going to award the crown today to emma chandra. it was perfect. we were talking about the opec meeting and whether saudi arabia will join or not. nejra: let's take a look at where european markets ended the day at the end of the european close. up 681-month high ending .2%. the dax unchanged. if we look at the bond market and fx market, it has been a weaker dollar day. that is it for the european close. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: it is nearly in new york, 5:00 in london, and 1:00 in hong kong. welcome to "bloomberg markets."
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from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, we are covering stories from new york to paris and vienna to tokyo. is here and by most accounts this holiday season should be a boon for retailers after three years of shanking spending. pec's final push for a deal. we look ahead to next wednesday's meeting. jaguar is bringing back the original supercar. bloomberg was given exclusivity as sex -- access to the team in the united kingdom. we are close to the end of today's holiday shortened trading session. abigail doolittle joins us now with all of the holiday moves. >> we have nice gains for the u.s. averages, more than halfway through the session at this point.

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