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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  November 29, 2016 12:00pm-3:31pm EST

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david: covering stories from havana and washington and vienna. oil falling below $46 a barrel as opaque members have failed to bridge -- there views on production cuts. donald trump takes an obamacare opponent as secretary of the department of health and human services, what this means for health care in general. we speak to the ceo of 11 james, they think it is time consumers share timepieces willingly as they share rides and rooms. watching whattors is going on in vienna. >> earlier we had stock , perhaps even in anticipation of the uncertainty around the opec situation. unchanged- that
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market perspective. 1%, ondaq is up 6/10 of record closing high. an intraday record high at this moment. for one market -- oil below $46 per barrel, down sharply on the day, down more than 3.5% as investors are nervous around -- about whether opec can't hammer a supply good deal as i ran saying they will not cuts of life with saudi arabia saying in order for saudi arabia to agree to a production cut, iran has to join. lots of uncertainty around the price yesterday, oil had been higher and now lower. one chart that example applies , we hadstor volatility
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the price of oil in blue and in white, the change in that long, and that short and when a supply cut deal was first announced, the possibility at this at the net long went higher and it certainly started to come in and went lower but now more investors are becoming bullish but with these uncertainties, the investors may prove to be wrong. we will know in about 24 hours the outcome of that opec supply cut deal and whether it comes through. health care, strength among the insurers, including unitedhealth group, aetna, and cigna, there could be two reasons, unitedhealth group did raise the fiscal 17 view 5% above the street view, despite uncertainties. this is helping at net and cigna, the big reason for the strength probably. we have donald trump saying he will nominate mike price to the position of health and human services, he is known as an
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obamacare opponent and some strategist may view that as a positive for this group did vonnie: -- this group feared vonnie: thank -- this group. trumpsident-elect donald has fake one of the original tea party caucus members of congress to be secretary of health and human services. tom price of georgia is an orthopedic surgeon, a main architect of legislation to repeal and replace the affordable care act. the president-elect is set to announce former labor secretary elaine chao as his choice to lead the department of transportation. that is according to people familiar with the decision, she ran the labor department under george w. bush. the transition team said she met with the incoming president last week and discussed labor and transportation policies. thousands of people in eastern tennessee have been forced to evacuate as wildfires encroached
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on several towns, the fires threatened dollywood. officials estimate that 100 homes have been damaged or destroyed in the flames, more than 20 wildfires burning throughout the southeast. investigators in the country of columbia trying to determine why a jet carrying a brazilian soccer team crashed into a hillside with six of the 81 people surviving. team -- was flying a the plane was flying a team to a championship game in medellin. before the crash, the crew reported an electrical malfunction, one survivor said the plane ran out of fuel. this is bloomberg. david: let's get back to the bond market. ten-year treasury yields have verizon significantly since the election -- have risen since the election. joining us is the head of fixed
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income at raymond james. the bull market question, are you calling a finish to it? >> it is premature to do that. there is a pause going on prior to the election, we thought we knew where the bond market was headed. with where the economy and the fed was going. postelection, it is about what is anticipating, anticipating progrowth measure out of donald trump. that would likely lead to inflation and higher deficits. the counterbalance is the -- iter the dollar gets, will keep the fed from raising rates too much over the next year. we are starting to see it settled down. i would not call it over but we are moving into a higher rate environment. probably more orderly than people think. vonnie: how does the fed navigate this?
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when inflation hits, it is almost too late to ray nagin -- rein it in. will the fed seek out a different inflation path? sameey will continue the monetary path, no matter who is in the white house. they will have to be more reactive to new potential policies that we have good numbers today out of -- looking back, gdp and looking forward, consumer confidence. this has been a trend toward better economic numbers which gives the fed almost a guaranteed path for december 14. as we go into next year, they have to balance what they are seeing with potential tax cuts and economic growth with how aggressive they want to be on raising rates. they are on a path that is good in terms of their existing policies which takes us to or three rate increases in 2017. david: the potential for new fiscal policy.
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what does the bond market look like going into next year/ >? >> much of what you see this year, we could push to 50 on the 1.25 on the two-year. that curve has stephen some 20-25 basis point -- stevens 20, 25 basis points. the key will be how soon any of these policies can become law. and how much of an effect it has on the market. right now, these are anticipatory moves but this has been a tough person to engage in terms of what is being said and what is reality. we will cross the year not far away from where we are now. vonnie: we just showed the path
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of the 10 year yield a few minutes ago, in my terminal you will see the five year, 40 basis points lower than the 10 year. there is a divergence in inflation expectations. is there the possibility of an inflation spike at some point in the next six months? >> i do not see it. there continues to be slack but we are starting to see that retailers -- we will see how the holiday sales go, especially around christmas. ask you whether retailers have any power. which would cause inflation. ishave seen up takes, oil one of -- upticks, oil will go forward and back which could be inflationary but i do not see a big spike in inflation for six months into the new year. we will be very steady, it is only when you have a wild spending and giant tax cut
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proposal which you think they are inflationary but that is later in the year at your list. david: -- at the earliest. david: looking at the gdp figures, the health of the housing markets, how does it look to you? >> it looks better than it has in the last two years on a consistent basis. we have seen spikes before. we were here at this time last year on interest rates and economic growth was failing in the first part of 2016. we bought the rumor. we are in better footing going into 2017 then we work from 2015-2016 transition. the u.s. economy is in good to .5% growth us -- 2.5% growth, inflation covered the same number, giving
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us a balanced u.s. economy. from what we are seeing, better conditions but we need three months or two quarters at the minimum to call it a breakout for the u.s. economy. vonnie: what about other assets, other segments in fixed-income, high yields for example, we have heard different takes of one is it is overpriced. , theu look at high yields curve and how it has performed, it has been in this range, what happens from here>? ? >> it has been a good trade for a year and spreads tighten quite a bit. it continues to be a good trade as investors take the risk off trade. and put the risk on trade on which is where you have seen a lot of outflows from safe even funds and into some of the more
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risky investments. this would be supported by economic growth if we see that in 2017. the trade itself is starting to be a little bit rich. we are narrowing the gap youefore high-yield bonds, are paying something closer to where you would see investment makingnd that would be me nervous if i was a holder now. i like the trade for the next three to six months but after that i think it loses is quality. looking at the likelihood of a rate increase in december, still at 100%. i imagine you would be looking for what janet yellen has to say. she spoke recently about staying in her job. how are you position yourself into what will be a radically different fed under donald trump? >> i think everyone believes
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that december 14 is a foregone conclusion, mostly about what the fed and the committee feels on a going forward basis. they want to be in a monetary policy, they want to take a more steady approach to this. wilde not expecting any springs but it is a different world and we are adjusting to it everyday, the markets are adjusting. the fed will adjust as well. -- the unknownwn is the timing it takes to transition out up current policies and adjust to new policies and whether the fed will be active on trying to get in front of that. they talk about the fed of being behind, they have been pretty steady along the way. in the first quarter of 2017, they will continue that path. david: thank you. that is the head of fixed income and raymond james joining us
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intimacy. text tomonald trump price as secretary of health and human services, what that means for the future of the affordable care act. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. david: time for the bloomberg business flash, the biggest business stories in the news. johnson & johnson has raises takeover offer for actelion. they -- they increased the offer from $.6 billion, the new price could not be confirmed. -- $2.6 billion, the new price could be confirmed -- could not be confirmed.
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cyber monday had more than a 12% increase from last year. monday was the largest online sales they in history, nearly 3% above adobe's original prediction. samsung is looking at a plan to turn itself into a holding company. the family that founded the company would see a big split. that is your business flash update. vonnie: turning to politics, dollar dropped -- donald trump's choice to head the department of health and human services, tom price, of georgia, one of the main architects of legislation to repeal and replace the affordable care act or obamacare. named chao will be transportation secretary. let's begin with the georgia congressman, tom price, for ages
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hhs, will take a confirmed that will he get confirmed -- will he get confirmed? >> i think he will. congressman who was also a supporter of donald trump. he did appear at the gettysburg address of sorts with vice president-elect mike pence and -- i am sorry, outside of philadelphia where they talked about repealing obamacare. obamacare was a big reason for why many midwestern states went for donald trump, the unpopularity with rising premium prices has been something that is impacted the middle class and something a lot of the voters i spoke to on the campaign drew a
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reason they voted for donald trump. david: elaine chao is no stranger to the cabinet room, she may be named the secretary of transportation. what qualifies her for that job and what can she bring to it? >> she is a former executive at bank of america and is the former director of bp score and was -- peace core and was the labor secretary in the bush administration and married to the senate majority leader, she is no stranger to washington. that will be a point person on the infrastructure spending bill infrastructure spending is something that president-elect trump said he wants to do within his administration which will put him at odds with the conservative base. a safe pick for the
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trapped transition team. team.mp transition vonnie: our producer ported out that the pro-donald trump -- this is filling the swap, not draining it, do we have any indication that any of donald trump'spicks -- donald picks are people he promised not to put in power? >> tonight when he meets with mitt romney in new york, dinner with friends or an awkward breakup. a lot to see if he gets that secretary of state position in the next couple of days. donald trump is headed to cincinnati, ohio on saturday where he will have a thank you victory tour. the first major address he gives since becoming president elect. i am interested to see what the
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feel on the ground is because train the swap was a huge portion of his rhetoric in the campaign. you are right, a lot of the people he is naming our people with washington experience. some would even say are washington insiders. they would argue that they are not. we will have to see how the grassroots conservatives respond. vonnie: that is the first of a tour -- a thank you tour for president-elect donald trump. take you for joining us from the washington bureau. tells use nasdaq ceo what donald trump will mean for regulation. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. david: this morning, tom keene and francine lacqua spoke to
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nasdaq ceo bob greifeld and ask them how donald trump what effect resolution does regulation -- regulation. bob: he will not see wholesale replacements, we need to improve the regulation in place today. there are good things with dodd-frank and bad things and hopefully we have a intelligent way of refining those regulations. museum ofme about the the new york stock exchange, where are you guys? where are you in five years? we: in a good place in that represent the most efficient way for buyers and sellers to come together. when you look at the transaction cost in the market, it is down by 90% in the last 19 years. that is impressive and we have to continue to deliver our product in the most cost-efficient way.
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we have used technology to the best of our ability and investors have benefited id. the first thing we have is our listing standards, we have quality listing standards so investors invest, they note these companies have gone through the rigor. with respect to market making and the -- if we eliminate major part of the rule, it will eliminate a wide range -- we look at the market making in our country, it is one driven by technology, not the classical person understanding the bid and offer. we have computers behind it. just providing the right liquidity that ensures continuous trading in the market in the most orderly fashion possible. -- does thatital make europeans more of a heavyweight? >> we will see if the
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consolidation deal gets approved but if you look at the global financial world, it is new york and london. i believe that will continue. we are the beneficiary of that. nostalgiame with the -- andan stanley 40 goldman sachs, do we need to go back to eight quarters? bob: we do not, technology can handle fractions. decimals. fractions were based on spanish pieces of eight. we can express the market in decimal spreads. and 3/8.group, 55 francine: help me out with tom keene, well people move from london to new york after brexit?
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bob: i spent a lot of time in london, i do not have a crystal ball, i think london will adapt and do well. under the current government, they are recognizing the new reality, taking changes a policy to ensure that flooded remains a part of the global financial system. -- london remains a part of the global financial system. vonnie: we hear next on the discord between iran and saudi arabia. this is bloomberg. ♪ wow, x1 has netflix?
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show me house of cards. finally, you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. on xfinity x1. ways wins. especially in my business. with slow internet from the phone company, you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. david: live from bloomberg headquarters, i am david gura. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn.
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let's start with the news desk with ms chandra. dash at emma chandra. -- emma chandra. emma: the campaign reporter said [indiscernible] could stillt-elect be to auto burg's choice for secretary of state. he summoned 2012 republican presidential nominee mitt romney back to new york another meeting. prompted backlash from close aides and analyze. also in the running, david petraeus, who met with trump yesterday and tennessee senator. and goldman sachs gary cohen is added to the list of people making appearance at trump tower. he is meeting with the president-elect today and vice president-elect. no word on whether he is in mind for a job within the administration or offering advice. the man u attacked fellow students at ohio state with a car and nice has complained
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about poor trimming of muslims. law enforcement told nbc and cnn that he said in a facebook post he was sick and tired of seeing tortured.lled and 11 people were injured in the attack. the campus police officer stopped and killed him. all of the above and victims are hospitalized. day,l news 24 hours a powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. david? david: breaking news, since elected president, donald trump is been receiving calls and making calls to world leaders. the prime minister of the united kingdom has spoken that she was on the fun with donald trump and discussed the need for close relationship. announced thats general michael flynn will be the new national security advisor. the conversation by phone between the u.k. prime minister
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theresa may and president-elect donald trump. vonnie: quick look at what stocks are doing right now. david, s&p 500 up about .25 of 1%. the dow continues to climb higher, 19,126. uppoint game, and the nasdaq .5 of 1%. is good to for details. abigail: we are back on record watch for u.s. stocks, especially to the nasdaq. it did hit an intraday record for and was on pace earlier a closing high, let's see if they can gain a few more points to make those closing record highs, perhaps once again. topor one of the biggest percentage performer today, we are looking at shares of the chinese internet retailer that are higher and jpmorgan is taking management to meet with investors in new york and boston
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, so perhaps bullish news is coming out. we also have the thing stock trading higher, including facebook, off of it, all higher. it is not clear what is behind it, but our team reached out to paul sweeney, who says he thinks we are seeing risk on in technology today and also believes it could be a rebound from the selloff into and out of the election. we basically had tech stock ofling off to the middle november and now there is a rebound. it shows nicely for those stocks. 5178,we look at g #btv this is a merrill lynch index, the big internet stocks in an index. a beautiful uptrend and we also see that this index has bounced off of the 200 day moving average in blue.
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this is bluish, suggesting buyers are interested in supporting these stocks. in the recent pullback i talked about, we are trading higher, suggesting that could be more upside the head for the stocks. vonnie: that is abigail doolittle, thank you. david: and opec deal to curtail oil production is in jeopardy as iran says they will not make cuts and saudi arabia insist they must be willing to play a willing role in any agreement. askedr this morning, we what this going on behind closed doors indiana. vienna.e end the -- the >> it was counterintuitive that the saudi's put on the table that they would consider a disproportionate cut and they really were not getting anything for that at that time. i think that has been read as a sign of weakness. i would not overdo it. nobody within opec really once a aamatic lower price -- wants
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dramatically lower price and the risk of it staying down is quite low. basically, the saudis i think to have an analytical case that would argue we are close, six months to 12 months from now, this will look different in all likelihood, ariane a real economic global slowdown -- barring a real economic mobile slowdown compared to today. if that is the case, we are close enough to balance where they are working off of inventories has been started and will continue, but we are really going to have to navigate the next six months, maybe nine months or 12 months to get to that position. >> why the urgency when rebalancing is anywhere between six months to 12 months in their grasp? >> it is a real good question. i have used a timeline saudi arabia may well know that they are experiencing a degree of
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irreversible decline in their big field, so why not have their openness to a current be a way to sort of camouflage that? that is speculation but there is a deep punch that that may be part of what we are dealing with . in any case, i think we will be working to a higher price, but at a slower pace than we would have got six months ago. david: take us to the other side. -- what kind of pressures are there on the iranians at this point? there is an election coming up and there is political tension in the regime. tom: there really is. especially with the u.s. election outcome, which means some of the agreements on the nuclear accord may not be as strong as they thought they were or would have been under the other candidate.
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my view is iran basically is producing all it can right now and some of the numbers they call production were really withdrawals from inventory, so the threat of iran is more relevant in a two-year or three-year period when and if they can bring in foreign capital and expertise to develop new production. i think the argument that has been made the last two days is the saudis are willing to say, can produce up to 3.7 million barrels a day and they are saying, no, we went a little over 3.9 million. that is a 250,000 barrel a day hypotheticalrankly now. i don't think they could get their interest in the number they are asking for, they just want flexibility. alix: it will be hard for opec to come to a meeting tomorrow and not come to a deal when they
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have been talking it over for months. what might make it wednesday? what is a light deal and what does it look like? tom: what looks like a moderate cut, most people -- nobody is heading, except for the saudis probably. maybe others are making it sound like they are, but it would be the standard case of saying one thing and doing another. right now, the propensity to achieve is really very focused since they're not going to the meeting, it is not it?ly cheating, is /is up by 300,000 barrels a day and it is not clear to me that russia has a lot more to bring on right now. they do have plans, announced plans, over the next two years to bring on another 600,000 barrels a day but those are in fields yet to be completed. i am not too worried about this
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becoming like the cheating we saw in the mid-1980's, where there was real leapfrogging by various parties. i think we may get a little bit around the edges. the other main parties that have at least the notion of breaking production is iraq. iraq has a few other distractions going on while they try to retake muzzle. mosul.ake it is only take we comparable to the mid-1980's. this is a situation going to question where the outcome tomorrow could be a very nominal deal, the saudis decide to support it with some cuts and then test, childers will try to test them. david: let's assume you are right, how do the markets react? tom: i think the market summer between mild disappointment and a yawn. i do not expect anything that will drive it $55 or $60 in the
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near term. what they need to do is buy six months of time to let global growth show itself. we find out about embedded decline and then we have a much better take on what the situation. next spring is the time of testing for opec. vonnie: that was tom petrie. david: emerging markets have rallied since donald trump was elected president. this morning on "daybreak," they asked if that rally could be sustained. objectives is to resuscitate the american economy, get the american economy moving at a higher rate. that is good for everybody, including emerging markets. >> he has a strong dollar, though. mark: i think he will try to weaken the dollar, so his program will be heavy
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infrastructure spending, spend like crazy, build up a huge deficit, which kobe concerning to the radiation sees -- which will be concerning to the rape teen agencies, which will be good for him because it means americans can export more concerning to the whiche rating agencies, which will be good for him because it means americans can export more. the mexican peso looks interesting because it has been down so much. there has been some recovery, but it has been incredible. i think trump will sit down with the mexicans, make an agreement, reached some kind of understanding and that will give confidence to the currency. not thew you are bondman, but i want to look at emerging market bonds that have been flopping. -- racing the worst of it? have we seen the worst of it?
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to expected for the decline? mark: as the fed raises rates, you'll get more negative news coming out, but over the longer term, i think you will seek another recovery because currency will be a big factor. >> let's take a look at the stock market. this is euphoria. the expectation that trump will spend in infrastructure, but no shown anyto have disappointment from trump. market's maniche depressive in a sense it has gone from extreme pessimism to optimism. i think there are a lot of people who are very concerned. they're not very optimistic. there are enough of them out there to hold back. >> what are you anticipating? do you see the selloff? mark: i do not see a selloff for emerging markets. we have already seen that.
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now he will see gradual recovery. emerging markets are outperforming this year, and the key is the flow of money coming from the u.s. after all of these remittances from corporations come in with a lower tax and also extending in the u.s., which will have an impact. david: that was franklin resource chairman mark mobius. sharing economy coming to a risk near you. you will look at netflix. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: you are watching
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bloomberg. i am vonnie quinn. david: i am david gura. when the could mean for local businesses. posted bettery than estimated third-quarter earnings, look at what is driving sales. david: today's quick take, u.s. cuba relations are normalizing with the election of donald trump and death of fidel castro that could change all of that. vonnie: the mayor of london this morning whining that businesses could leave london if the u.k. ends up with the hard brexit. [indiscernible] mark carney -- carney called for business deals, during which the country stays in the eu to build markets. >> i think mark carney's a frustration that if it is the case, the government wants to exit swiftly
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and the needs to be a transition because it cannot afford to go over the cliff edge. if you are a business, you are planning for years or five years ahead and that lack of certainty can cause a problem. vonnie: he also said that he received assurances from the british government that eu nationals living in london will not be forced to leave the country after brexit. david: tiffany posted third-quarter earnings to be estimates. demand improved in china and japan, may be assigned that the luxury market is improving around the world. spending been weaker in asia and a drop in tourism after the terrorist attack in paris. some of the biggest automakers will join forces for the european network of past charging stations for electric cars. it includes volkswagen, bmw and forward, mercedes -- ford an mercedes-benz. on theors in india are verge of giving the green light to ride hailing services uber and hola.
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they offer rides to and than 100 cities in india because there are no clear national rules were vehicles have been seized and drivers find in several states. vonnie: time for our bloomberg quick take, only provide context and background on issues of interest. the u.s. and cuba have had one of the world's strangest relationships. 11 caribbean island of way people lost in the standup with a superpower and there has not been in ease on the trade embargo and fidel castro has passed away. the election of donald trump raises the question on whether the neighbors can become good ones. trump is pledging to reverse the normalization progress, arguing relationsiplomatic will formally resume in 2015. president barack obama's visit was the first by u.s. sitting president since calvin coolidge.
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obama said he wants the trade embargo unlisted but that would require an act of congress. opposese -- rubio legitimizing cuba's government. swing over batis -- over batistata was a communist dictatorship. the u.s. severed relations and bash the bay of pigs invasion to topple him. after it failed, the u.s. imposed a trade embargo. there was a 13 day crisis in 1952 that peter -- that teetered on the edge of nuclear war. they listed the reasons for the embargo, including the removal of pastor and his brother rau l.
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supporters of normalization say the embargo cheated u.s. companies of opportunities. president obama says his measures have undermined one-party rule in cuba. opponents say obama is life funny a dying dictatorship -- is giving a lifeline to a dying dictatorship. everything could be undone by the president-elect. you can read a quick takes. you can go to bloomberg.com for more stories.
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vonnie: some headlines from federal reserve governor jake powell, saying in indianapolis that the case for a rate increase has strengthened -- direct quote. he also quoted this quote regulatory policies that are needed. david: thanks. from netflix to uber to airbnb, the last decade has been share
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in startups that have grown to household names. shared hisest has pieces, the founder and ceo, whose members rent watches. how does it work? >> it is a membership club. our members have a choice of what types of watches they went to where and they receive a new watch every quarter or season, basically starting at $149 a month. it is part of the club, and it benefits can't shared services and more. economy, it based on for people whom may not be able to afford to watch and to maybe someday get it or just to try different watches? randy: if you are part of millennials, you are prioritizing and luxury. you want to try it before you buy them, there are wearing watches you never want to own and there was a notion of plenty
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of people addicted to a variety that exceeds what they want to own, so it is a lot of folks, not to mention the $77 billion incentive marketplace that thirdtizes watches as the most popular gift syndicated to that market. david: i imagine not everybody can become a member. be do you decide who should a member? randy: it is an application, similar to applying for high-end credit card. we are motivated to have as many members interested in joining but make sure everyone will be a positive impact. david: meaning no one is putting a fake out there or stealing? --dy: you want to make sure we guarantee every watch looks and feel like new and we went folks helping us to do that and not making it harder. david: you have been around since 2013, how is it changed #randy -- changed? randy: you have to watch and listen, so we launched,
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listened, and hey, we need a lower entry-level, so it is $149 per month. we launched an package the business to go to a corporate marketplace and we have had robust demand from individuals incorporate for a women's line. two weeks ago, we launched the lebron james women's collection to meet the demand. we were always -- we launched 11 james women's collection to meet demand. david: is the market for women's watches different? will be presented different challenges? randy: the only fundamental difference the city the watches is we are some segment of men prized applications and women to enterprise tools, diamonds or other stones, but fundamentally, the notion of do this makes sense. i have heard from a lot of women that previously it was, i can get the nice watch, bracelet or necklace. now we are trading the and moment, where they cannot offer
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$150 a month. get all fory can $150 a month. david: well to be partnership opportunities in the future? randy: you realize there is a time and place to meet the demands physically and the full the product and that will make sense for us, as well. there is opportunity to have to-ups to partner with expand internationally. we are looking at all of it and we will get there in due time. david: thank you, ceo joining us in new york. pursuit for the finest things in life. just had to it on the bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: 1:00 p.m. in new york, 6:00 p.m. in london, 2:00 p.m. in hong kong. i aim david gura. vonnie: iambic vonnie quinn vonnie quinn. welcome to "bloomberg markets."
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-- i am vonnie quinn. welcome to "bloomberg markets." from new york, covering stories from washington to vienna the seoul. opec's third largest oil producer iran says it will not, members of the group before the social summit tomorrow. plus, phantom did not say it, but it's out as most bible company will probably split as souths next year -- but korea's most bible company will most probably split as soon as next year. halfway into the u.s. trading session and abigail doolittle thethe latest read abigail: nasdaq interestingly for the dow and s&p 500, gains are modest. a little bit tentative, different from yesterday with a
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small decline but felt like investors were taking a breather. with gains today, a little uncertainty, but for the nasdaq, we do have the price at the index trading on pace for another record low, so not a lot of tentative and part of investors, really liking the tech stocks. as for what could be weighing on investors today, we are looking at the energy complex. as this down about 4% investors wait to see whether or not opec can hammer out a supply deal. goldman gives this a 30% probability and they do believe there will be volatility in brent but it will trade somewhere in the low 50's to $55 per barrel, while energy assets has a 50% probability. it a deal is not hammered out, it could drop down and natural gas slipping lower. it was held up earlier by the prospect of cold weather in
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december. taking a look at one sector working today, retail, tiffany, jcpenney and burlington. affany trading higher on better-than-expected fiscal third quarter, $.76 in adjusted earnings, 13% better than what the street looked for. expect the strength is in japan and china. jcpenney trading higher on better-than-expected black friday checks. burlington stores trading up with the group. retail.ve strength in we came out of one of the biggest holiday shopping weekends ever. the real strength is an online. we see we had some big year-over-year growth over friday, upg, black 22% year over year. what really stands out a the holiday shopping weekend, americans spent nearly $40 billion online, up 7.4% year over year. not so shabby. david: thanks. abigail doolittle with the update.
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let's check in with emma chandra on first word news. a: his choice to leave the department of transportation, according to people familiar with the decision. he ran the labor department. -- she ran the labor department and discussed transportation policy. meanwhile, the president-elect have named [indiscernible] the affordable care act. six 10 republican congressman tom price of georgia is also an ledopedic surgeon and has president obama's health-care legislation as an inability to make medical decisions. making it clear that he wants to man from the white representing himself in the fatal shooting up nine churchgoers and charleston, north carolina. he said he once dylan move to
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address dylann roof to address him directly. on standby.team is the pentagon has found there was no misconduct in an air strike that killed dozens of syrian forces in eastern syria in september. u.s. central command did admit that it was a mistake, saying they wrongly identified the sources as islamic state fighters. the mistake was halted after russian informed the u.s. they were hitting syrian forces. investigation found that intelligence and communication mishap contributed to the error. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. crude oil below $46 a barrel in new york and opec realist to correct differences. they are ready to respect the membersl unless all
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included oil agreement. tophen schork is here explain what it means. we are hearing rumors and seen speculation and door stepping and drama and saudi arabia same one thing in russia saying another. where will it end up and will there be a deal? stephen: i am highly skeptical. we have to keep in mind this is all about iran. somee looking at the china the sunni side of opec and she aside opec well beyond -- shia side of opec. an area of theof middle east that is up for grabs, which is now dominated by the sunni arab majority and to shia, backed by the united states on the nuclear arsenal and with nuclear
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weapons. saudi arabia without a major concession with iran -- i cannot see saudi arabia standing off on any production quote. we have to keep in mind that the only people during this bear market of oil in the last two years, outside of canada, that has taken oil off the market is united states. u.s. producers have cut their production by 2% and opec has raised it by 8%. has raisednd opec about 8% and russia has increased by 5%. we are looking at people who have done nothing doing the bear market that at oil, neither claim they will try to take it off the market. if very well may be, but let's keep in mind for everyone beryl the united states took up of the market, opec putback on the market. if we get any sort of had, and that -- sort of cut -- and i'm skeptical -- i think there are a lot of producers in north america, calgary, north dakota,
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texas, they will be happy to hear that because they will be happy to put the oil on the market. david: i wonder to the extent that the lack of the deal and where oil is priced at now, wpi down 4%, 45 .18, we saw that this management -- we saw that diminishment in the end -- in the vienna. it the deal price to net this point? no.hen: the downside is not priced in because there is always a miracle of miracles that you will get some sort of announcement of a deal. if we do get a deal, it will certainly be a run back above $50 a barrel, back into the low mid 50's, which is where we have been the past years. that has been the roof of the market. the basement of the market, in february, down to $25 a barrel, but more or less, the low in the market is the low to mid 40's.
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we are in the high to mid 40's, so the answer to your question is nothing has been priced in. cut, we get see the it to 50, and if we don't, so $40 oil. vonnie: it is not in anybody's interest perry two benefits from no deal? stephen: when we think about -- interest. who benefits from no deal? stephen: the oil producer does benefit from new deal. we are still inking about opec as it they are the price maker. we are now in the process of opec and oil producers transitioning into price takers. we are there because for the first time ever, we have substitutes in the market. i call it the tesla affect. 10 years ago, we're talking about peace oil supply, a fallacy, but that is where the talk was and what the money was. we are talking about peak oil demand today.
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essentially, if you keep prices artificially high by pulling production off of the market, all you do is raise prices at the pump and that lowers entry for alternative fuel and it will hasten topex relevance and -- opec's relevance in the market. this is a long-term threat to their survivability and not just saudi arabia but iran, venezuela, algeria, united states. united states, norway and canada all have other options, but with 90% to 95% of it is dictated by oil, you are in a pickle. keep your customer hooked on your product and you do that by keeping the product price though so it secures your price and market share 10 years down the road. otherwise, you drive oil back to $100 a barrel, like three years ago, you will see more previous iuses.r teslas in pr
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david: late september, we get this announcement of an agreement. today as i read the news reports and what is going on in the vienna, they are squabbling over numbers of barrels. i have a hard time understanding what was agreed to in principle if we are talking a minute level about their account. stephen: that is right. the high end of that alleged accordant algiers was a cut between the high end that 7000 barrels a day and the low end at 2000 barrels a day. if you focus on what the iranians except, they said about 600,000 barrels. correct, the iranians themselves up at nine hundred thousand barrels of oil on the market since april 2015. we are talking about a cut that would not accommodate the amount of oil a rainy and sub had put -- toronto oil iranians have had, and they have no intention of cutting production. this will have to go to the
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sunni side of opec and we don't see it. it is mind-boggling that they sit there, we have seen this movie played out before. the market follows it, wall street follows it, they followed the tweets. the market ebbs and flows with every breath iranians or saudis say at the market. at the end of the market day, we know there is a slim chance that we see any sort of cut. even if we see the cut, 700,000 barrels a day not a lot, especially when we say that the glut in oilglobal to persist through 2017 because demand will be stagnant. let's take that 700,000 barrels because remember -- americans have taken 1.1 million barrels a day off of the market, select the saudi's take 700,000 back. americans will be or than happy to put it in the market, right back to square one. vonnie: talk to us about the troubled economies and the ones
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that are suffering more because oile. i do not win to talk about revolutions or civil protest or whatever -- stephen: we are already seeing this in iraq. if you revalue what is going on in venezuela, it is like reading a novel, go to page 1065 in the paperback edition, read the bottom paragraph been "atlas shrugged," and that is what we see today. it is not a far-flung thought to placeat this cannot take in saudi arabia are iran, and this is the problem of these economies that have spent the last multiple generations doing one thing -- taking a product out of the ground, selling it, pulling the money and using it matches, but own now they cut off the welfare to their people and that you have the biggest lacks one potential
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event over the next one to two years, but you have some major civil unrest in a large middle east economies because oil i do not ever see going back to the heyday of the 1970's at $90 a barrel, so these economies will have to learn to get by on less. vonnie: stephen schork, thank you. david: still ahead, the kickoff to the donald trump era may begin with a rollback of obama care. the latest, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: this is bloomberg markets. i am david gura. republicans considering a rollback of obamacare. repealing the affordable care
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act presents new challenges for congress. his stephenain dennis, with us on the pond from washington. let me start with you. republicans have been talking obama care for several years. the conversation i gather now is what they would put in place of that law. how much of the groundwork is in congress right now? stephen: frankly, they are not close to having the final replacement. there is consensus among republicans on what the replacement should look like, but they do want to get a big victory up front, and it looks like what they want to do at this point is to pass a bill using a special procedure that cannot be filibustered in the senate to may be within a few days of donald trump taking a deal about this on january 20 and set an expiration date for obamacare, and that would put
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all of congress and republicans under the gun to replace it either later this year or within the next two years. trump and edney, donald has not been shy about talking his desire to replace it and has pick someone to head health and human services, who has not been shy about it. what has he said about obama care? >> tom price was one of the leading members of congress who has talked repeatedly about repealing obamacare, and part of the republican leaders that have repealed this many times and have not gone through congress completely, but have introduced their own legislation, his idea of what would replace obamacare, so we have a little idea of what his preferences and what they would be and how they go with donald trump's. a talk ofre is cohesion among the republican party, getting everyone to agree
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on something to replace obamacare. how much would it complicate things that since the election, donald trump has spoken publicly about there are parts of the law he favors and would tend to keep in place if this lower revised? steven: it could become a big problem later because they are lawmakers who are not interested in replacing it with something else from the federal government. probablyy, they will need democratic votes to replace it, so it could help him get some democratic votes at the keeps things like the ban on pre-existing conditions and other things. messou sort through that -- it is not an easy question at all. lamar alexander, the chairman of the health committee in the senate, once them -- wants them to go slow and he thinks it might take several years before they can fully transferred to a new system that would be more
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power to the state and to people, unless they are in washington. david: how a business is with donald trump said about the affordable care act? consumer by was up today in trading. do they have more clarity about their business model and their path forward? anna: i'm not sure they have more clarity. i think they do have the pick for hhs secretary expected in tom price. i think of them, that is some sort of idea of what is to look out for going forward, but as steve mentioned, there is not any great idea on what exactly if replaced happens, what it will look like, so i think businesses are little bit waiting to find out more about what the trump administration and hhs led by price would be able to come up with and back as
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far as good insurance to the public. david: last question about the role that hhs will play. we talk about the battle over the slot in congress. how powerful a secretary will tom price be a confirmed? anna: heanna: has the connections in congress, having we havere, and what seen today is a lot of praise from many different industry groups. from the health insurance lobby and from some of the doctors groups, as well, so it appears that he is well positioned to be able to kind of lead this and shepherd something through when they come up with it. anna: thanks and edney -- edney and steven. vonnie: coming up, samsung is considering [indiscernible] we will dig into what it will gain from a breakup with one of
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south korea's most viable companies. this is bloomberg. ♪
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this is bloomberg markets. i vonnie quinn vonnie quinn. samsung electronics has a plan to boost shareholder value, coming up to elliott investor management column for a split from the company last month. cory johnson joins us with more. sounds a elliott said, you have been messing around for a few years, here is the solution. for many decades, the weight samsung rends itself has been a family-run business that the giant conglomerate and decided to do whatever it wanted to do, as long as the leader of the company wanted it, but the new generation said, you can clean up the ship and do things the right way. it looks like this will fall short of some goals. we still see more clarity to work samsung's business is, more clarity into what we will see from the reporting unit and
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every investor likes the dividend and likes them outside the boardroom. be -- is thatill a bad and good company? corey: they are all good. high-growth technology business and you have other industrial businesses, as well. separating them is the main culprit furthermore, -- separating them is the main goal. furthermore, we try to see what is selling and what isn't, and the investors really look at the business and understand what is happening. vonnie: this really has nothing the last wild and has been coming for longer. corey: i think it has nothing to do with the exploding phones. if samson was in the position of strength, they could've been stronger against them, but the cannot claim things are going great when they have these problems with the major release of the seven phone and it had to be recalled and they missed the
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complete product cycle to the benefit of apple. vonnie: what is it that elliott concede that the rest of us have not been seeing ? corey: i think the concern is there unnecessary costs but they are hidden by the way it is reported. we can see the different businesses and the profitability and then they have to own up to it if all short and white expenses are high -- and why expenses are high. vonnie: how likely is samson to go along with it? corey: quite likely. there is a new generation of ownership and leadership at the company. you have this desire to do things and i think the clarity in the business, it was probably obscured within samson as much as it is without. vonnie: fascinating. you can hear more from corey in half an hour when he is joined on bloomberg radio. capital tellsood
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us what he thinks the economy is headed somewhere investment opportunities are. this is bloomberg. ♪ generosity is its own form of power.
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you can handle being a mom for half an hour. i'm in all the way. is that understood? i don't know what she's up to, but it's not good. can't the world be my noodles and butter? get your mind out of the gutter. mornings are for coffee and contemplation. that was a really profound observation. you got a mean case of the detox blues. don't start a war you know you're going to lose. finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. on xfinity x1. vonniedavid: this is "bloomberg markets."
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; the lame duck congress is holding its final work session of 2016. republican leaders want to pass a short-term spending bill to extend existing funding levels into next spring. they are also trying to finalize legislation to address lead tainted water in flint, michigan. thousands of people have been for a $15 anesting hour minimum wage. thousands plan to walk off the job at mcdonald's restaurants. fidel castro died friday at age 90. josh earnest spoke about the u.s. delegation heading to cuba for the funeral. >> the president has decided not to send a presidential delegation to attend the
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memorial service today. ben rhodes will attend the service, as will the top u.s. diplomat in cuba. : hundreds of thousands of cubans will be pledging allegiance to his socialist ideology. offensivess launched on mosul according to the associate press. the operation is an attempt to clear the area of islamic state fighters who stayed behind to stop the army's advance. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm emma chandra. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you, emma.
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economic --e barry sternlicht gives erik schatzker his take on the new, washington, d.c. barry: it is a sea change. the president wants to do things like infrastructure spending. pace we question because the pace will determine interest rates. much, the question is how hope is there in the senate with the tea party candidates that will let us increase the deficit tax?e we actually that is the regulator on trump's fuel for his economic fire. i was bullish with either president because we reached 4.8% unemployment, he saw the
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huge wage increase. you are beginning to see companies past their profits on to their workers come a to the rhetoric of the nation. we will get wage increases, wage increases will lead to more spending and we will see higher interest rates regardless. now, you will see this infrastructure spending bill -- we don't have skilled workers. there are guides to build roads and bridges and tunnels -- it will take more time than the market thinks, but the direction is clear. rates are going higher. the question is, how fast? rates?r rents rise with that is more important than rates rising. if rates are rising because wages are going up, that is a good thing for real estate values. also, replacement cost is going up that is good for existing
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real estate. you were bullish with either hillary clinton or donald trump in the white house barry: i was positively sloped. but, i'm worried. i'm worried about too much kerosene on a fire that is already pretty good. we are not far from 4%. we have not even started infrastructure spending. we have not cut any taxes. erik: would you like to see the president-elect go a little slower? barry: i would have staged this -- i don't know if i would have -- youorporate taxes have to be thoughtful about the deductions you eliminate and what impact they may have on your overall land. -- i not something that love simplifying the tax scheme.
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we all spend so much time on our tax returns. companies have low tax rates --ause they are incentivized there is an industrial scheme behind our tax code. we will have to think about everything we have to take a way to simplify it. : if bond yields are going up and they continue to rise, that cannot be good for cap rates. barry: that's why i said rents really matter. 30% in manhattan, you did not care where rates were because you were making so much that he fixed the debt in the real great, rents were rising it's the pace. we want slow and steady. for the pace of the economy is if the economy gets too hot, the dollar will soar.
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look what's happened to the 30 year and 10 year already. barry: we can't handle that. the dollar will be so strong -- i started my career in 19 to. -- investing in 1982. at the robin hood conference, this generation of traders has not seen inflation -- you cannot make this too hot. we will overheat. we don't have the workers to build these tunnels and bridges. they are not skilled for these jobs. we have to train them. otherwise, we will overheat and the stock market will fall. have the stock market and gotten too hot
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already? barry: everything is worth 20 or 30% more. we know we are getting a tax cut. will it be phased in? what will the impact beyond the deficit and what will happen to rates and what break will that be? the economy is set up very well to sustain an increase in rates. rates, wer mortgage will make a fortune. ,ome of our other businesses people get stuck to rent. we have 90,000 apartments. you will not be able to buy a house because interest rates will be so much higher. the rental complexes good, the housing market will be solid. depends on the breath of this, how they parlayed these goodies that will come out. will they go to cleveland, michigan, the blue states like california and new york? where is this money for
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infrastructure? are we going to fix laguardia? i hope so. you will have to figure out where the money is going to flow because you will have to invest in those markets. vonnie: that was barry sternlicht, chairman and ceo of starwood capital. of justiney test trudeau -- what are the pros and cons of his decision? this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: this is "bloomberg markets." vonnie: let's head over to abigail doolittle for her chart of the day.
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abigail: we have a great chart of the day. it does deal with oil and head of the proposed opec oil cut. #btb 5068. the white line represents oil. this is over the last two years. the blue range here, that is the proposed oil production out of opec. the cuts that could come today. this proposed cut came at the end of september and it appears that as oil was starting to sag a bit from those big gains made earlier this year, the opec cartel did make this proposal to perhaps help boost oil. we've seen lots of volatility in here. and in the oil etf volatility index, we see the oils etf
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volatility index is up about 17% this year. from october. investors getting edgy ahead of the possible deal cut. ov 4993. #btb and opec supply cut deal may not come through if iran says they don't want to cut reduction. is iraq in blue and iran nbc production has been climbing. these producers have been resisting production cuts. , this isn in the u.s. the department of energy production over the last year. this is declining. but off of the bottom, this is not helping the fact that we are headed for a fourth surplus
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year in a row. over the last five years, this is not shown here, but u.s. production is actually up nearly 50%. it will be interesting to see if the opec deal comes through are not. david: time for the bloomberg business flash. the federal reserve governor is signaling his readiness to raise interest rates in a speech he delivered today in indianapolis policymakers are expected to lift the fed's benchmark borrowing rate next month in washington. is set to gain about $35 million when his -- basedoes public on the price range, the 55-year-old will hold 2.5
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million options -- kellogg is pulling its ads from breitbart news-- site. breitbart didr not respond to an immediate request for comment. the white house has just announced joe biden plans to travel to ottawa to meet with justin trudeau next week one topic likely to come up next week is energy. he's preparing a pipeline announcement today. s lawmakers have said canada needs pipelines to the oceans to sell to buyer's other
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than the u.s. joining us now is mark bunting. what are the decisions we are likely to hear today? that they will get two of a couple of pipelines, northern gateway and line three. a third one is transmountain, a pipeline being proposed by kindergarten -- kinderg morgan. we may not get that and we are hearing of a possibility of a ban on takers. -- tankers. this was approved by the previous government but the court came along and said he did not consult an up with the first -- enough with the first nation group. though pipeline would run from alberta to the ocean.
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the minister trudeau has said he is not crazy about this idea, especially because it will go through a reinforced. projected --way is line three runs from alberta to wisconsin. enbridge is saying it is essential that we place it that replace it and reroute it. it is the least controversial of the bunch. there is some opposition in minnesota. line three is expected to be approved. as far as transmountain, this would run alberta to bc. it would be a twin line, oil headed to the ocean and condensate coming back to alberta. a lot of opposition to this one from local mayors and environmentalists and first nations groups. david: these pipelines will be going through places of
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environment for concern. -- the primeare minister campaigned on environmental reforms. what oil, energy hugely important to the canadian economy. on the one hand, he is saying we will get corporations to agree to a carbon tax, which they largely have. campaign very strongly on improving environmental practices and he has been doing that, bringing in the carbon tax , marine protection law, overhauled the energy board. on the other hand come of the other part of the balancing act, he wants to improve the economy and get canada's resources to market faster and create some jobs. he is trying to walk down the middle. he knows he will not please everyone.
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vonnie: there's a lot of oil to get the ocean -- prices are low. maybe it would be better to wait when prices are higher. mark: that is true. oilsands companies need higher prices. the production right now is uneconomic. wendy's think about whenplains are built -- these pipelines are built, regulations are being beefed up and globally, you've got the international energy agency is, we mayoes codec see oil demand down by 25%. -- in two decades. vonnie: mark bunting, thank you. david: coming up, how one of the most successful lobbyists in the place in theed his
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president-elect's inner circle. ♪
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david: this is "bloomberg markets." have retreateday from public eye but never left the president-elect's side. >> paul manafort before steve bannon came along was supposed to be the big mastermind who was going to bring trump of victory. , it he resigned in august seemed like that was going to be it and his big fall from grace and we would never hear from him again. he never went away, he stayed
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close to trump all the way through. he articulated the strategy that brought trump the victory. steve bannon was good at making a lot of noise with bridge group. -- fringe groups. to get the key states, that was all paul manafort. i take a look at the scope of his career and evaluate what might be in store for him in the future. >> paul manafort, the trump administration will be antiestablishment, but that does not seem how it will ultimately work out best paul manafort is the ultimate washington insider. who came upomeone in the 1970's in young republican circles and help with the gerald ford camp in and in .he ronald reagan campaign
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fort -- paul manafort who brought these controversial foreign figures access to the reagan and bush white house is. it was paul manafort who worked on the dole campaign in 1996. trump could not find anyone else to help him while his primaries were slumping. he popularized the phrase "influence peddling" as a synonym for lobbying. >> paul manafort was very visible, but most of the time, he likes to be below the radar. he is not a public guy like lee atwater or roger stone. he is not flamboyant. when he was brought into congress in the late 1980's, he
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played a part in the directing of federal funds rate project in new jersey. -- for a project in new jersey. that was a glib statement that would define his career. is a nice dresser, he's got homes around the country in some really lovely places. he is a low-key guy, but he is involved in the trump administration. >> he was in touch directly with trump about how to handle the jim comey revelations that the fbi was going to look again at hillary's emails. closer to the final days, he was saying you have to go back to michigan, you could win michigan. have some great details in the story about their background, how the two got to know each other. >> they first met personally in
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the 1970's rue roy cohn -- through roy cohn. then, he used paul manafort's firma for lobbying purposes to defend his casinos against any and casinos that were going to come up. that's indian casinos that were going to come up. trump came and visited and took a look at the campaign operations and asked questions and said he was very impressed. starting to get a feel for the sort of thing that paul manafort it. years later, he has a home in trump tower. they probably see each other in the elevator from time to time. least two of his friends that you have to get paul manafort to help with the campaign. he picks them up and the rest is history.
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david: you can hear more from the magazine's reporters and editors on bloomberg television. frome: coming up, we hear joe sitt. that will be at 3:00 p.m. eastern. --ht now, we have the dow up the nasdaq is up .6%. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> it is 2:00 p.m. in new york. oliver: welcome to "bloomberg markets."
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julie: we are live in bloomberg world headquarters covering stories out of oklahoma city, london and vienna. fading for a supply cut ahead of tomorrow's opec meeting in vienna. the uae oil minister says oil options are on the table to get the market back in recovery. oil prices have been slumping. watching out for global currency weakness -- we are looking at whether japanese equities are a buy. at a new name to the secretary of state list -- bob corker is at trump tower today. will he get the nod over names like mitt romney and rudy giuliani? stocks are on where trading with abigail doolittle.
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abigail: modest gains for the u.s. averages in the u.s. the dow, s&p 500 and nasdaq are trading modestly higher. the nasdaq is up the most common trading at new record highs were . as for the dow and s&p 500, these two averages are not hitting any records today. something happened yesterday from a technical perspective with the s&p 500 that stands out. 5182. this is a near-term chart of the s&p 500 and near this upward sloping arrow, we have a set of 14 straight higher lows in a row. the buyers are supporting the upward momentum. this has been equaled or topped two other times in the history of the s&p 500. back in 2004 and 1971.
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now, we have lower highs. the sellers could be moving in . whether it leads to declines ahead is unclear. the last two times, it was a bit mixed. we will know next month. as for what is moving today, we've got quite a few movers. first, microsoft trading on pace for a record high as tech has rebounded a bit here. earningstheir 2017 topping estimates by about 5%. finally, comcast trading higher on an upgrade -- a price target being raised to $85 per share. the analysts there think comcast could benefit from the new direct now pricing. they see 20% upside for the shares of comcast. oliver: let's check on the first
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word news this afternoon. alisa has more from our newsroom. trump sat down with chuck grassley today -- he said sessions would be an evenhanded attorney general. brazil's president has declared three days of official mourning for the victims of the plane crash that killed 75 people. most of those killed were members of a soccer team heading to columbia for hmb john mack. -- for a championship match. the man who attacked fellow students at ohio state university with a car and 90 yesterday had complained about the treatment of muslims. knife yesterday had complained about the .reatment of muslims 11 people were injured in the attack.
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a campus police officer shot and killed him. four of the 11 victims remain hospitalized. by high windsed swept through tennessee, quitting parts of the great smoky mountains. forcing thousands from their homes. national guard troops are on the scene to help overwhelmed firefighters. at least 100 homes have been damaged or destroyed by the flames. more than 20 wildfires are burning throughout the southeast. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm alisa parenti. this is bloomberg. saysr: mark mobius president-elect donald trump would probably be successful in reviving the american economy and he says that would be a good thing for everybody, including emerging markets. he explained why during a bloomberg tv interview earlier in singapore. he will try to weaken the dollar.
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heavy infrastructure spending, spend like crazy, build up a huge deficit. which will be concerning to the agencies -- which will push the dollar down, which would be good for him. oliver: joining us now to share his view on the trump affect is larry hatheway. we are all this news constantly following about who's going in and out of trump tower. as far as the economy goes, what you want to see? feeling with the economic tailwinds and is back -- at his back. he will face the prospect of a big fiscal package. a federal reserve that will have
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to raise rates. they are going to raise rates in december. what is likely to happen is they will then have to proceed more quickly than markets anticipated in 2017. that will be one of the interesting things to see is how that plays out in markets. julie: how you think it will play out in markets? the fed has kept to its message of very gradual. when do you think the fed will acknowledge it? the markets tend to get the message sooner than the fed. larry: we will still hear that gradual message from the feds. the surprise could be if we see another sharp acceleration in average hourly earnings. that might make them a little more willing to acknowledgment it -- acknowledge it.
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how big the fiscal statements will big the what impact it will -- that willconomy have impacts in early 2017. the forward curve will adjust. the proxies for bonds will continue to falter. it still includes much of the emerging complex. on the other side, there's a lot when we'ves -- normalized the adjustment in rates the dollar will come back. oliver: looking at those fed funds futures -- i want to look at what the expectations are for next year. this is the expectations for the december meeting. we can see the line shooting up as people assumed it was going to happen. -- int a bit of a move may, the lines suddenly become
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flatter. the path ofions for hikes next year might not be repriced --stically larry: there could be an event where we have to repriced that reprice that -- forward curve. if the fed has to move three times, maybe even four times in the course of the next will, the adjustment could produce very interesting volatility. julie: also in currencies. we had mark mobius taking the other side and saying we will see potentially dollar weakness here. is that possible if we see higher rates? larry: it's unlikely. the combination of fiscal
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stimulus and monetary tightening is a recipe for strong currencies. the boj is begging interest rates at zero for the 10 year pegging interest rates at zero. 115-120 becomes the objective of the markets. at some point, that may raise issues in the political sphere about how much dollar strength the trump administration would be willing to tolerate. we will have to get to that point first. will include against european currencies. be if the fedd to that -- now, we want them to go, we want them to keep up. that's where are the bets going for next year?
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larry: we've been pretty firmly short duration for some time. the bond market selloff began in the summer. we've been part of that for several months now. it has not just been in treasuries. we've been anticipated this move into european markets. we've been short in the italian market. also in german bonds. ,here can be some consolidation the big moves give way to a bit of sideways movement. once we see the fed coming back into play come i suspect it will drag down global yields. we have trimmed back in anticipation of going short duration again. julie: the you think on the stock side that the run we've
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seen in cyclicals already, is that pricing in this infrastructure spending? larry: not sure how much and for structure spending it's going to be. will be those companies engaged in other things that may or may not do well. for example, the chinese construction story. infrastructure is also a bit harder to envision politically. the easiest thing to envision is tax cuts. first incorporates and then defense spending. corporate and then defense spending. what may happen globally in terms of the ramped up security spending in other parts of the world -- oliver: thank you for giving us some insight. that is larry hatheway. nasdaq's ceo up, talks regulations. quayle just arrived at trump
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tower. a name and many of us have not heard for quite some time. this is bloomberg. ♪
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julie: this is "bloomberg markets." oliver: time for the bloomberg business flash. senior executives decided to remove the retail banking chief from her post month before she plans to retire. describedrations were in a letter sent to u.s. lawmakers in september -- 2000 office to cut
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headcount will be .ut from the current 136,000 breitling is weighing a sale. the most likely suitors are luxury goods companies. breitling is being advised by gca altium. that is your business flash update. has shiftedreifeld nasdaq away from being an operator of stock exchanges and into a technology and out of business. he shared his opinion on president-elect donald trump's push towards deregulation.
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bob: you will see a refinement of regulation, you will have a deregulatory been, but i don't see wholesale replacements of major pieces of regulation. we need to improve the regulation that is in place today. there are good things with dodd-frank and bad things with dodd frank. tom cole and help me with a wrap the nasdaqeet about -- where are you guys in five years? are in a very good place in that we represent the most efficient way for buyers and sellers to come together. when you look at the transaction cost, it is down by 90% in the last 19 years or so. that is impressive. we have to continue to deliver our product in the most cost efficient way possible. to the used technology best of our ability and investors have benefited from that.
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tom: what are the best practices of u.s. market-making? bob: we have our listing standards. we have quality listing standards so when investors invest, they know these copies have gone through a fair rate of rigor. the volcker rule will help market-making across a wide range of assets. we look at the market-making in our country, it is one driven by technology today. it is not the classical person understanding the bid and offer at that particular moment in time. we have a lot of computers behind it and we are providing the right liquidity at the right time that ensures continuous trading in the market in the most orderly fashion possible. does consolidation make europeans more of a heavyweight? bob: we will have to see if that consolidation deal gets approved. if you look at the global financial world, it is new york
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and london and i believe that will be what continues. tom: one final question -- help me with the nostalgia here of morgan stanley. , to 10.25.hs -- 210.25. bob: technology can handle decimals. we are able to express the market in decimal spreads. francine: looking at brexit, will people move in london to new york? bob: i've spent a lot of time in london. you have to understand the
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primacy of london in the global financial world. i think london will adapt and do well. the current government is recognizing the new reality. ,ulie: that was bob greifeld ceo of nasdaq. he will step down as ceo and become chairman on jinnah worry first. -- january 1. oliver: every american employee has sat through compliance courses -- do they work? this is bloomberg. ♪
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oliver: this is "bloomberg markets." julie: sexual harassment continues to be a huge workplace issue. an investigation look into why a
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generation of compliance training has not fixed the problem. joins us inth today's walk the talk segment. we have all done these --pliance online trainings as you are story shows, it looks like they probably don't work. but we don't really know if they work because no one will share their information. what i found most fascinating was the fact that only three studies have ever been done to look at if the string courses actually work. the youngest one is 15 years old. there's nothing out there that can tell you if you are achieving anything. what it does achieve is it allows the company to say, look, we have addressed this issue and we've tried it so if something does happen down the line, they can go to a court and say we are not liable for this because we
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put all of our employees through training. oliver: there's a few parts to this story -- you do a lot of who'veews with the women had problems in the workplace surrounding harassment. what was your take away from the interviews? any common theme between all of them? we talked with nine women in all sorts of industries, all sorts of ages. people who had been harassed by a former prime minister of the netherlands down to farm laborers. it's across all industries. some companies have had bit really well. people have come forward to make complaints. , it is either not addressed at all or they don't feel comfortable enough telling their bosses that this is happening to them. they do tell, it happens years down the road.
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you examine that piece as well. claire: i've done a number of stories -- every single woman months or years later, i came forward and said this. this is a common trait and something we don't understand. there are psychologists who study this. women often times think they will come forward and say i would get angry, i would take this -- when it actually happens, they are fearful and second-guess themselves. oliver: they actually did these sort of interviews where they thought they were part of the interview -- there are these systems, these training courses,
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they don't do much. where does the incentive come from? julie: rather than just protecting themselves from liability. claire: companies need to realize this is a cultural problem. at some point, you will face this issue. it is not necessarily your fault. you need to know that in advance and be able to address it. make employees feel comfortable enough by talking to them about respect in the workplace. so that when something does happen, they can report it. the worst cases have gone on for a wild. julie: there was a lot of discussion about sexual harassment during the election. as the conversation changed since? claire: i don't think yet. it is so new. it takes a long time for a
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cultural change like this to happen. at least we are talking about it. on some level, that is disheartening because we are still talking about it. on another level, we have come to understand a bit more about how this happens, the psychological dynamics in place and we have a lot more laws in place. julie: think goodness. -- thank goodness. oliver: still ahead, the commodities close. oil keeps going down. more with the commodities close. this is bloomberg. ♪
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julie: this is "bloomberg markets." commodity markets just closing now in new york. we will get to oil in just a moment, but first, gold prices
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seeing a bit of a decline today. gold has continued its downtrend , trading below $1200 an ounce as we had towards a probable fed rate hike. opec officially meeting underway in vienna tomorrow. wti is getting slammed. iran and saudi arabia have been hardening their positions oniran hardening their positions on a deal. the oil minister for the united arab emirates did say all options are on the table. is pretty reactive to those opec talks as well. decline of almost 4% today as well. if opec cuts production, u.s. show producers will raise -- to flood the market with more oil. harold hamm is known for being a wildcat, expanding aggressively at any cost.
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this time, he says it is different. him how the company plans to stay disciplined in a world where oil is $60 per barrel. harold: we would have no intention of going in and pulling off our rigs. we are fairly active. have been through this downturn. cut the rigs from 56 to 19. atx: do you know what you do $65? harold: there comes a point where you add a rig or two. band.s the alix: what about the drill but uncompleted wells?
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harold: we wanted to do a couple of things. we are doing that. balance.ly and demand that balance in the second quarter of this year at the end of the second quarter of 2016 just as we predicted, you can see it coming and calculate it out. it balanced. that balance is there. we know more stable prices and better prices are going to be the result that. there is an inventory overhang. we are seeing that come down pretty drastically. about 15% in the world so far. that is coming down somewhat faster than people thought. we said when the balance --urred, we would start
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after you complete the welcome, how the rich production -- after you complete the well, how do you bridge production? harold: we call it oil in the ,ank as the production comes on that will be there in 2017 and also 2018. lix: you have two years of money in the bank. harold: for a good while. at growinga look production after that, what kind of oil price the you need to see to grow at 5% or 10%? harold: we've been growing production in some areas. we did not in the balkans because we need a better price for it.
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but certainly here, we have been growing production in southern oklahoma. it has been offsetting the decline we've had up there. : 45-50 -- harold: scoop stack, we are in a different environment here. it's a very lucrative production . overpressure stack. rigs back up, we are looking at north of 60. what is the minimum he needs that steady production for the next two years. need toum cap x you have steady production for the next years? harold: we had a bare-bones budget this year, 920.
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below $1 billion. billion tout $1.3 have some growth in production. it is not a great deal more. it all depends on price. alix: what is the priority? if you deliver production growth or pay in dividend -- harold: we don't have dividends here. we build reserves and production. that is what we do. we tried to do it within the
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cash flow. ratio that ist acceptable. the high it gets on side if you are not careful. when prices are low. in a low price environment. we sought to lower that some. we've done that this year. and have been very effective. that is harold hamm speaking with alix steel. we will have much more on the curryk for oil with jeff and 8:30 a.m. eastern tomorrow. there's a 30% chance of a production cut by opec later this week. julie: let's check the headlines.
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alisa: president-elect donald trump has named a staunch critic of the affordable care act to be the secretary of housing. -- health and human services. has said of georgia obama's legislation interviews with the abilities of doctors and patients to make medical decisions. elaine chao is set to be announced later today as president-elect trump's choice to lead the department of transportation. ran the labor department under george w. bush. bob corker is at trump tower for his meeting with president-elect. he's reportedly in the running for secretary of state along -- davigenerals patraeus and rudy
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giuliani. a majority of americans say president-elect trump will fulfill his campaign promises. that's according to a new survey from "the hill." 78 percent say he will get the job done. britain's u.n. ambassador rice calling on the syrian regime and their backers to stop the bombing in aleppo. to get food and medicine in and allow the wounded to get out. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm alisa parenti. this is bloomberg. julie: coming up, more on the
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meetings today at trump tower as the president-elect narrows down the cabinet appointments. this is bloomberg. ♪
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oliver: this is "bloomberg markets." julie: time for the bloomberg business flash. billionaire stan druckenmiller is bullish on the american economy following the election. druckenmiller speaking today at the robin hood investors conference ring the euro could weaken 280 two cents against the dollar. saying the euro could weaken to $.82 against the dollar.
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online spending rose 10% according to adobe. black friday almost caught up .ith $3.34 billion in online --sung heading for a split looking to turn itself into a holding company that could come as soon as next year. that is your business flash update. oliver: president-elect donald trump is busy making appointments today. people coming and going from trump tower. tom price for health and human , elaine chao for transportation secretary. trump team announced he will break to kick off a thank you tour in ohio here to discuss it all is ben brody from washington.
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what's the most important update in terms of the cabinet positioning and what we can expect next as he takes people for his administration echo -- picks people for his administration? health and human services -- aiming to repeal obama care if not replace it. will be key players in undoing that law if they are able to. tom price is somebody who has an idea for how they will replace obamacare. it is not universally agreed upon by republicans or democrats. it may be a signal that his blue
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print will be the one going forward. julie: the elaine chao appointment has a lot of importance in an administration that is expected to introduce a lot of infrastructure spending. we know she was labor secretary. what are some of her other qualifications for this particular position? ben: she was in the w bush administration. the first asian-american woman to hold these positions. she also happens to be married to mitch mcconnell of kentucky. her confirmation will probably be relatively smooth. she's not a particularly controversial figure her husband might be more controversial. she's not somebody who gets the ire of democrats. withill be going forward
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some of those infrastructure bills. it's unclear what exactly trump wants to do. julie: we don't know why dan quayle was at trump tower today. don't think we know why a lot of these people are coming and going. the best we hear from the campaigns are some people are there to give advice or some are there or a job interview. they don't comment on who is for which. it does seem like they may be doing both at once. oliver: tell us about the thank you tour. want to be very clear that it is not a victory tour. it sure seems to be a victory tour. you're are going to the states they were able to win, swing more bluee ohio
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leaning states that they were able to the. that's able to flip. the industrial midwest. they will be getting back together the momentum of the movement. the raucous big crowds that would go into these stadiums and which year for donald trump. they will also be keeping some positive coverage on them. oliver: he's already won. what is the utility of going here? ben: he is able to go there and he is able to have the cameras turn on him. very often, the news networks will roll on him for 20 minutes at a time. he can say the kinds of things he wants to say. it way to generate some headlines. base. excite the
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to be drumming up support for the agenda he's going into in those first 100 days. oliver: there is some degree of precedent to it. helpingamm -- ben brody us with all the details. julie: linda has confirmed that it got that revised proposal on a potential merger with praxair. the stock had already risen when the news came out. now, you can see it is rising to the highs of the session. time for the sector spider report. abigail doolittle looking at the big story of the day. abigail: we are looking at the xle, the energy sector. we have the energy sector etf trading lower, nearly 1% down. of course on the drop in oil.
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you see that exemplified here, down more than 3.5%. this is ahead of the opec meeting tomorrow. investors fearing opec will not be able to hammer out supply cut. the drop in oil dragging on and some mobile, chevron and dragging on at ,ome mobile -- exxon mobil chevron and schlumberger. this is a longer-term chart of oil. in yellow, we have oil trading at a record for its 200 day moving average. oil had been below the 200 a moving average. we have oil bouncing above it, testing it a few times and now, oiltrading down that's it can hold those levels of support around $44 per barrel, it may suggest oil could trade higher in the near, medium and long-term. one more chart that could make #btv 5184 come a 20
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year chart of oil. in the blue boxes are other opec supply cut deals of one million barrels or more. deals, we supply cut see volatility and over the medium and long-term gains were made. if there is a supply cut deal hammered out, we could see oil raise higher. coming up, a closer look at bill walton. he is back on the map after a special role from the president-elect donald trump. this is bloomberg. ♪
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julie: this is "bloomberg markets." oliver: if you aren't familiar with bill walton, he was once top of washington's finance establishment when he ran private equity firm allied capital. accused allied of inflating the value of its holdings. a subsidiary of allied agreed to settle fraud claims and eventually shut down. why walton had been flying under the radar ever since, things changed in recent months when he was named cohead of economic issues were federal agencies -- for federal agencies. max abelson has more on this story. this is someone who had a spout with regulators previously in the world of finance, now works with trump. talk about the machinations that led to this. max: this is not the basketball player. theed was sold off after
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price crumbled. people might remember bill walton's name. david einhorn went after a light hard he accused allied of inflating the value of its holdings. triggered one of the more famous feuds in hedge fund history. eventually, allied settled with the sec and the justice department for $26 million. bill walton was involved in the riksbank scandals. that was pinochet and equatorial guinea -- bill walton was on the board. julie: he was not directly implicated in either of these equations. ly, some ofional
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that trailed him -- max: life got a lot quieter for him after that. punk --ed a steam starred in a steam punk western. he's not a bad actor, actually. he got involved in some pretty far right conservative causes. ,e's on the board of heritage which is against gun control and by mental regulation. -- environmental regulation. oliver: since he is going to be , does heonomic front have been asked to grind -- an axe to grind? world andiew of the
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his view of regulation would be incredibly colored by his experience. that heme on the record thinks regulators have way too much power. the word he used is that regularities -- regulators have "arbitrary" power. his cohead is a former chief economist at bear stearns. he's in charge of the teams that are supposed to report back and say here is what the treasury department should know. here's what the commerce department should know. not only does that give him a chance to shape what the trump administration might look like, it gives them an entree -- this guy could end up with a job he has a ready recommended that
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already recommended bill walton to be the head of the rs -- irs. oliver: great stuff. that is max abelson. thee: coming up, we have latest investment ideas from the robin hood conference in brooklyn. we will discuss the economy under donald trump. how his view contrasts with that of steve druckenmiller's. ♪
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>> it is 3:00 p.m. in new york. i oliver renick. i am julie hyman. welcome to bloomberg markets. ♪
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oliver: we are live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york for the next hour. and we will be covering stories from washington, paris, and switzerland. the nasdaq hitting a new record and the dow and s&p hundred trying to follow suit. pledgeill donald trump's be a windfall for the real estate business? we will also be joined by managing partner in the hour, how he is positioning his portfolio under donald trump. public group for to the president-elect as "conpublic ge president-elect as "con man don." let's get a check on the markets with abigail doolittle. abigail: modest date -- modest gains. the dow, s&p, nasdaq, all
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trading higher. abigail: modest date -- modest the dow and the s&p 500 trading -- perhaps after these averages traded around earlier today. the nasdaq has been flirting with record highs all day. off pays a record lows ever so slightly. we will have to see whether or not the nasdaq can put in a record high. the s&p 500 may not be on pace for close to record highs right now. there is strength for the index. we have health care really helping the s&p 500 today. that does include unitedhealth group after an investment conference did erase the earnings view 5% above consensus .espite concerns we have the pharmaceutical company trading higher, and some are saying that president-elect donald trump saying that he will nominate tom price for the position of secretary of health and human services, a well-known
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oh -- well-known obamacare opponent, and this is giving the health care sector a bit of a lift. technology shares not just the nasdaq but also the s&p 500, alphabet and microsoft higher. our team was told earlier there is not anything specific there thewhat we have going on is risk on in technology today, he also believes this is a bit of rebound in tech that we have seen after the pullback with the election. finally, we have some weakness. we have a oil trading drought -- trading down sharply. fail tos peel opec may hammer out a deal tomorrow. goldman sachs, only 30% chance that they will hammer out such a deal. they believe oil will remain volatile. a 50%re giving probability but if the deal is
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not hammered out, energy aspects is saying oil could drop as low as $20 per barrel. oil is clearly down today and copper is taking a breather. a big month for copper. pace for its is on biggest decline since the middle of october. btv --e a look at g# the relativee index, basically a momentum indicator when it is above the 70, that is suggesting the market in question here copper is overbought. 70.er had been well above it is now dropping below. the question is whether or not copper will fall back down into that range as copper it self declines. julie: interesting stuff. broad reaches in the economy -- in the commodity. the commodity monitor, only thanks so much,
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abigail. let's check the headlines on bloomberg's first word news. cuba, government offices are closed for a second day of memorial for former president fidel. at the white house, josh earnest discussed plans for castro's funeral services. josh earnest: the president decided not to send a delegation to attend the memorial service today. deputy national service advisor will attend the service as will be top u.s. -- omats >> hundreds of thousands have been farewell. investigators in colombia are trying to determine why a charter jet carrying a soccer team crashed into a hillside. only 68 people survived. but minutesute
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before landing, and electrical failure was reported and they declared an emergency. the plane ran out of fuel. u.k. prime minister theresa may and president-elect donald trump have spoken by phone. they agreed their team should build close relationships, including a meeting of the national security advisers before christmas. they also agreed to meet at the earliest possible convenience. relationships between the u.s. and china are headed for a wild ride is donald trump fulfilled the campaign promise to designate china as -- huntsman tells bloomberg that sanctions against china would result in retaliation and trigger the erosion of trade and economic relationships. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more
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than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. julie: thanks. emerging markets have been under pressure since the emergence of president-elect donald trump. the index down more than 4% since november 8. linda spoke with the emerging markets group executive chairman and asked him what he sees ahead under a trump presidency. >> trump's, and i think he will probably be successful, is to resuscitate the american economy, get the american economy moving at a higher rate. that is good for everybody. that is my next point. i think he will try to weaken the dollar. his program in my view would be heavy infrastructure spending, to spend like crazy, buildup a huge -- which would be concerning to the agencies. which will be good for him because it means americans can
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export more. i think you will see a combination of things happening which will overall be good for emerging markets. >> which are you liking at this point? >> the mexican peso looks interesting now. down soit has been much. there has been recovery but the volatility has been incredible. i think trump will sit down, make an agreement and reach some kind of understanding and that will give confidence. >> i do want to take a look at the bond market. we see market on's slumping. they have been hit left, right, and center. decline?t a further >> i think as the fed raises rates, you get more negative news coming out, but over the longer term, i think we will see a recovery.
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the currency will be a big factor. >> let's look at the stock market. trump --tation that structure, but no one seems any disappointment from trump. what is your assessment? >> i think the market is manic depressive in the sense that they have gone from extreme pessimism to know optimism. whoe are a lot of people are very concerned. they're not very optimistic. there are enough out there to hold back. >> what you anticipate? a selloff? >> i do not see a selloff for emerging markets. i think we have in that. now i think we will see a graduate -- gradual recovery purity margin markets, the key would be to slow money coming after all these corporations come in with a
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spending ind also, the u.s., which will have an impact. the set withobius, him earlier on bloomberg. oliver: coming up, here is a check quickly on stocks. things are going well. members in the green, the dow jones up. areaq, some of the stocks leading the way. the s&p up about 30 basis points. doing pretty well. this is bloomberg. ♪
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julie: this is bloomberg markets. a look atme now for
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some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. till wheeler -- the next candidate will become the ceo of metlife. $30 million when the team holdings become -- go public. based on the midpoint of the company's's price range of 38 to $42 per share. regulatory filing says the team's president called 2.5 million at the end of last year. cyber monday barely held onto its rank as the biggest online spending day of the year after a surge of shoppers hit computers and phones instead of stores on friday. , 3.4 5 billion, according to adobe. black friday almost caught up with 3.4 billion -- spent online compared with 22 spent a year ago. kellogg pulling its ads from the website breitbart news, the news
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organization whose former chairman was picked as the top advisor of president-elect donald trump. they had drawn flak in recent ands after it has racist anti-semitic views. that is your bloomberg business flash update. insight ons get more the economic policies of president-elect donald trump. earlier today, bloomberg spoke who barry stanwyck, expressed concerns about moving to fast on infrastructure spending. >> in the housing business, we do not have skilled workers to build tunnels and bridges and i read the article in the times about the river. it will take more time than the market thinks but the direction is clear that rates are going higher. will real estate keep up? julie: for more, let's go to betty liu, with a special guest.
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betty.that is right -- right.that is one of the earlier supporters of donald trump, and predictors. we had a conversation one time where you said, just watch, he will be elected. and he did. what was said. do you agree with that, that there is not enough skilled labor out there to keep up the pace with what president-elect donald trump is saying about infrastructure? commentagree with his in terms of a slowdown. i normally have great respect for him but i think we are already too late and we have got to make up for lost times. the great recession was really one of the greatest opportunities in american history to fix all of our infrastructure and bring us up to speed, where effectively emerging companies today are well ahead of us. he could be the airport system,
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tunnels, etc. what i mean by too late is already, our infrastructure is coming apart. you have got issues with border delivery and bridges. issues with highways. the great recession that happened, we need to create jobs and we missed the window of opportunity. for ever but we should have probably been doing it starting seven years ago. trump's focus on creating jobs and getting our infrastructure, etc., up to par, it is not a bad thing. tell him to go for it. let's improve the system and bring the united states into the modern era. betty: one reason we missed the vote -- missed of the boat is because it is so hard to get congress to do anything a last eight years on infrastructure. what makes the difference? >> the difference is we do not have a president. we have a king. donald trump with a republican-controlled senate and
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congress, does not have the challenges you just referred to. he will not -- the bottleneck along the way being able to get infrastructure projects moving because at least in the early part of the administration, he is going to have the support of both congress and the senate. he has got a window of opportunity to really make things happen. would you put that as one of his top priorities? if you see donald trump's politics from pre-election to postelection, you will see a lot of what i had said before hand, you have effectively seen his change from the progressive approach, and things i did not agree with on the campaign trail, but to really now at logical and more presidential. betty: you knew he would do this once he was elected. >> i think we called it pretty
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right. >> you called it right. >> sometimes we get lucky. anyway, long story short, i think he has been backing off on some of the more confrontational issues. even mexico, you see him tapering it back down and not looking as much for -- a great country and a great friend to the united states and tradingeconomic partner. probably the largest commercial developer today in the country of mexico. bullish on mexico, but you have seen him tone that rhetoric down and focused on things people all agree with, namely infrastructure. city, 15 years i have had that as my number one in -- number one venture. nothing hasennedy, been done no matter how much i have put out there. we see it live right here in new york. betty: you were oversees the day
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after the election. you and i were chatting and you said there were very nervous people afterwards about trump. what was interesting though is we have seen the markets take off. it seems like investors are actually alleged about president-elect trump. >> throughout all of the cities i was visiting, one place i spoke, the economic forum, they had a program there. donald trump, and concerns. and i said, i want to see how everyone votes with their pocket took. i want to wait a year. we did not have to wait one year and we waited less than a month and we see how they have voted with their pocketbook. of markets, that type movement turns into a reality. the mindset of positive and moving up in terms of valuations, i think it will turn
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to real positive business is rolling out. i think the key for president donald trump, i will say i'm close to all of his children, whom i have tremendous respect for, close to kushner, all of the things, he is one of the smartest people the business world i know they are good advisors. i think they will guide him properly and keep them away -- keep them away from the more sensitive stuff. manage thewill they business while also help him manage the white house? how will that work? >> no question, it will be interesting as a line to go down. i am less of a jealous or negative person about it here and i mean if donald trump lost the election, let's be blunt, the name brand donald trump was really in the dumps. his hotels would have suffered in his businesses would have suffered. almost definitely. it was already starting to be
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affected. thenow he is getting benefit of being the president of the united states and it will help his business and his brand and his family might and probably will make billions of dollars of that. i do not begrudge them. i think especially with all of the early issues going on, i think they will be careful in terms of the fine line there walking, and they will get some free benefits, but it is what it is. the case of jared kushner, and this is my opinion, i saw a cover on the wall street journal, everything china to push jarod out of the administration, jerod not only won the election for donald trump in my humble opinion with approach to campaigning, i think he will be the key to the balance for donald trump. i think he will keep them young and relevant and he will be connected. silicon valley. forget, some of these
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folks, they were democrats. i think they will be in that white house. we should not say, keep them out of the white house, which will hurt us. i think jerod will be a german's to donald trump and the country as a whole. betty: we will leave it there. good to see you. oliver? oliver: up next, options insight . we will be back with more. this is bloomberg. ♪
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oliver: this is bloomberg markets. time now for options insight with abigail. abigail: running is today, momentum stocks. from chicago. thank you for taking the time. what a month for stocks. a lot of record highs for the dow, the s&p, and what are you thinking here?
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>> russell is on a fantastic streak but all good things have to come to an end. we have 15 days in a row of the russell going up and then yesterday, it ran out of gas. maybe today is the start of another. i think a lot of that russell move was all a part of this trump rotation taking place. i wish i had a more clever name but i have not been able to figure it out. money was moving into financials and health care and industrial stocks. we saw huge rallies in those sectors. have more than 20% of it being in financials, that is why we saw such a fantastic move. >> speaking of, we have a great chart in the bloomberg. 51 82, it shows an amazing streak in the s&p 500 yesterday was broken. we saw a 14 day streak of higher lows in the s&p 500, what do you think? >> i think it is too soon to call it a bearish signal for the
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intermediate term. run-up, itve a huge is only natural for the markets to take a little bit of a breeze it -- a breather and assess the situation. take a little that off the table, put a little bit and pocket. >> record lows and complacency, will it last? >> for the foreseeable future. unless something we did not think happened out of either the opec meeting we have got coming up, if they do not agree to cut likely want them to, or something unknown happens out of the fed. you go to july and the vases out of dodge under 20 rate now. not a lot of worry in the market. a good trade have for us. can you walk us through that? >> i do. --
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>> we will have to leave it there. thank you. back to you. oliver: thanks. still ahead, we're joined. strong thoughts on president-elect trump, calling him "con man don." we talked earlier about how things kept going up. the dow jones of about 12 basis points and the nasdaq still leading the way up more than twice that. we will continue to see that sort of rotation postelection. the nasdaq earlier today touches a record, not there at this point but we will see if any strength in the close. this is bloomberg. ♪
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horny: let's get to bloomberg's first word news. bob corker is at trump tower this hour for his meeting with president elect donald trump. corker is chairman of the senate foreign relations committee and
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is reportedly in the running for secretary of state. other candidates include former cia director and retired general david betray us as well as former new york city mayor rudy giuliani. vice president dan, a longtime ally of mike pence from indiana was also at trump tower today. and trump adviser kellyanne conway, it was unclear what he was there to discuss. trump's choice to be attorney general, jeff sessions sat down today with senator chuck grassley, who chairs the senate .udiciary committee grassley says sessions would be an evenhanded attorney general. iraqi forces have lost an assault on villages as the val to retake the country'second-largest city rages on. an attempt to appeal to rural areas and stay behind to stop the iraqi's advance.

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