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tv   Bloomberg Markets Middle East  Bloomberg  December 4, 2016 11:00pm-12:01am EST

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♪ >> political of people moves the slides ashe euro renzi loses the of time referendum. asasia-pacific stocks hit john key calls the day in new zealand. economic datast shows strength, but the cheerleading at its fastest pace in three years. >> donald trump takes to twitter, criticizing china over
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its territorial ambitions and the yuan. i am angie lau in hong kong. it is just past noon. welcome to "blommberg markets: middle east". it is about that risk event we were waiting for yesterday. the verdict is in. to impact your markets over there as well as in asia. yousef: it is sending shockwaves around the world. 64 is the magic number in terms of opponents of matteo renzi's referendum, the margin they beat him by. this is the chart that shows you the downside. take a look at that downside pop. that is the downside pressure the euro is currently facing, a 20 month low. economist says
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that could test the low of 104.58 in 2015. he does not think it will hit parity. how will the equity markets respond to this when they come online later today? what you watching angie? it haswe know how impacted the markets in asia. i when he give you a quick check of the state of play. mumbai trading for 20 minutes, and here's what it looks like right now. let's take a look. in fact, we are seeing asian stocks generally slip. hong kong, the hong kong-shenzhen connect is back and japan selling off. in the middle east, what is happening there? a busy dayhas been of trade in the middle east. we are two hours away from the opening of the emirates markets
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10:00 a.m. local time. this is how the markets closed upsunday, volumes in dubai, 1.7%, downside pressure in abu dhabi. are watching saudi arabia as they continue that rally, up .5%. foreigners picking up shares in egypt as well. let's look at first word headlines from around the world. here is haidi lun. headlines, political john key says he will stand down as leader next week and quit politics altogether at the next election. after eight years in office, he says he is not a career politician and it is time for someone else to lead. he has backed bill english as his successor. the south korean opposition may have secured a enough votes to impeach president park over the influence peddling
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scandal. motion is backed by 170 one opposition lawmakers, plus 29 members, which would just reach the 200 votes required. addressed -- will address the nation on tuesday or wednesday. donald trump renews his criticism of china after backlash over his s phone call with taiwan's president. beijing complained at the weekend after trump flout the decades of diplomatic protocol by speaking directly with the taiwanese president. a green party backed presidents will be the next president of austria. he ran as an independent and took almost 52% of the vote. he later said elections can be won on a pro-european platform.
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the result the five media projections of eight tight race and ends and acrimonious year of campaigning. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. i am yousef gamal el-din. i am yousef gamal el-din. there is new uncertainty in europe. voters rejected a referendum on constitutional reform. prime minister matteo renzi conceded defeat and will resign. minister matteo renzi conceded defeat and will resign. let's bring in and shoot -- andrew davis, former bureau chief for bloomberg. a lot of people speculating this could mean the five-star , and anti-eu movement, could take hold here. will have we elections earlier than expected in 2018. there is a chance we could see a
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caretaker government and matteo renzi would stay in place. the president won now either ask matteo renzi to stay on order to put together another government based on his majority. been a bighis has victory for the five-star. their numbers have been climbing in the polls. they are a very young party, one and mayorships in rome turin. they have been a very effective gadfly. matteo renzi made the mistake of personalizing it, and they jumped on it. tosef: i brought up a chart give our viewers some perspective as to how the market felt ahead of the results. vulnerability of european banking stocks, a shoulder pattern building, perhaps even further downside. what happens next here?
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what does it mean for italy? >> you mention the banks, clearly this referendum was not banksthe euro, but the are really in trouble. if investors lose further confidence in the at tying banking system and the government's ability to prop up banks, that could be real trouble. in have 350 billion euros bad loans. if investors suddenly say, we are not going to go in, this could be a huge crisis for the italian banking system and it affects europe as a whole week as it will spread contagion all over the place. yousef: thanks, andrew. let's stay with the story and expand on it. joining us now, head of investment strategy for abu dhabi commercial bank.
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your first reaction as the results come out here? 60%, 40%, matteo renzi's proposal out the window, what does this mean for markets? the referendum has been taken out of context. the political instability will ensue. it really is one of the most politically stable countries in the world, and one ingredient has always been government instability. that way the country has always been very stable. if you think of it and compare it with brexit and trump, italians have basically said nothing will change, so i don't see such a tremendous risk. i really don't see it. yousef: what does this do to
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euro-dollar? down over 1% in asian trade. are calls that it will break through parity. where does it go? we are now seeing a bit of a knee-jerk reaction. we will have a new government come a probably with the new prime minister. the banks, the government will stay on track to pursue the bank reform. the ecb is there to stand by to help banks with liquidity if necessary. we are now seeing a knee-jerk reaction.
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gold is more or less stable, equity markets in asia are not that touchdown, so i think we are now seeing a knee-jerk reaction. we will is down, but have to see what happens on thursday when mario draghi speaks. i think the euro-dollar should stabilize. as head of investment strategy for abu dhabi commercial bank, would you get in on italian banks? >> you know, i think that if there is going to be pressure, i really see some buying opportunity. and ah comes to shove caretaker government forces some conversion of fixed income paper into equity, they have already
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set up measures to safeguard those retail investors to whom those bonds were sold and properly. union credit is pursuing the sale of pioneer, less profitable, but were not talking, the dollar pressure is not about profitability. it is about the risk of default. i see possibilities there to get into the banking story. again, the whole issue is this referendum risk has been completely overstated. has beenical risk overstated, and therefore we can imagine very well, we can actually be quite confident that the same economic policies will be pursued by the next government, and we will not have it elections as soon as many people think. electoral have a new
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law, and more proportional law, and by having a more proportional law, less winner takes all in each district, then five-star movement will have a hard time to win the elections in italy. there will be a coalition government going forward. very quickly, that eu referendum in italy, do you think that will actually happen, given aly will if choice remove itself from the eu? is people have not mention this, but it delete is the only country i know of that has a constitution that explicitly for bids holding referendums on international treaties, so there can be constitutions under certain
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circumstances, a constitutional reform referendum like the one yesterday, but you cannot just come up with such a referendum beitaly, and there will not the political will to pursue that either, so i think that, let's put it like this, elections, may be at the end of 2017, but anyway they were going populistruary 2018, a five-star government, i think it is still unlikely, and then the and eu referendum is not something i see at all on the horizon. yousef: some very interesting calls there. let's get you some breaking headlines hitting the bloomberg as we speak. heavy fog has disrupted operations at dubai international airport, delays of
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up to one hour on inbound and outbound dubai flights. is working to minimize the impact. date, some 69 million passengers so far in 2016. a bit of a preview as to what is coming up, diplomacy in 140 characters or fewer. trump takes to twitter again to trade.ina over the yuan angie: we get the latest pmi numbers. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yousef: the latest pmi data, the whiles are stronger,
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egypt's business conditions are to thierry rating. -- our deteriorating. great to have you on the show. interesting set of numbers here. showing strength come although the external environment remains weak. >> the pickup in november was encouraging after three months of decline. rapid not been a recovery, but is an improvement heading into year end, a strong season for the uae. generally output remaining strong, orders picking up in november, and employment picking up, which is quite nice. boost in 2016en a so far, so hopefully that trend will start to change. yousef: the market volatility, incredible in november, how
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sustainable is the momentum in these pmi figures? 2017 should hopefully be better than 2016, particularly if the deal around the opec supply cut is enforceable and effective. i think that will provide a boost oil prices, and that always benefits economies in the region, even those not dependent on oil like dubai we have seen growth slowed down this year, and i don't expect a sharp turnaround in 2017. we're expecting some pickup in growth, three point 5%, up from 3%, nothing to shout about, but a good solid rate of growth. yousef: what about the story in saudi arabia, the higher oil prices feeding into that, what is the driver there? inwe saw a strong turnaround november, and a couple of listings supported confidence in
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the economy. one was the issue of sovereign debt in october, and that feeding through two payments, private sector companies, so we saw an improvement in the cash flows for companies in november, and that would have provided some boost to act remedy, but we also saw improvement in liquidity conditions in the banking sector in saudi arabia in october and november, the interbank rate fall, and that has helped to grease the wheels of the economy and saudi as well. angie: we are seeing to buy stocks the biggest gainers after oil here. stocksk that -- dubai the biggest gainers after oil here. largely onit depends what happens to oil prices next year. if we see a sustained recovery, we have a forecast of around $55 a barrel for brent. level,ee oil around that
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perhaps higher, that should support markets in the region because it is good for the budgets in the region and takes pressure off governments in terms of having to look to cuts in spending in 2017. day,: at the end of the that is putting underlying pressure on not only the economy, but overall budgets. the fractionally rising oil prices expected in 2017, to offset this huge problem? looking for a huge increase in government spending in 2017. on the basis we see oil around $55 a barrel next year, we would expect spending to remain broadly and change compared to 2016, but it reduces deficit and some of the pressure on governments to find additional cuts and to find financing in other ways. a i don't think we will see
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big fiscal stimulus in the region, but we should not see significant further cuts to spending that would weigh on private sectors in 2017, so the worst is behind us in terms of cuts to spending. pmi, the lowest reading since july 2013. you would have thought that it would unlock lots of the knots in the system. that has not trickled through. said, activity falling to a three and a half year low in egypt. in novemberrders decline, but at a slower rate than we saw in previous months, so perhaps that will be the turnaround indicator for us in the next few months, but what happened in egypt in november is depreciation has fed through high input costs for companies in egypt.
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they have passed those on to customers, and that has had a downward impact on demand, so output falls him a new orders falls because prices have risen. yousef: a call for oil going forward. >> higher, but not too much from here. yousef: we will leave it there. still to come on the program, coming up, john keys surprise resignation. where next for new zealand? go, oile let you currently trading to the downside, wti and brent. back of some of the strength we are seeing in the u.s. dollar. stay tuned. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yousef: welcome back. you are watching bloomberg. i am yousef gamal el-din.
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i am angie lau in hong kong. john key announced a surprise resignation today. let's get over to paul allen in sydney. from new zealand. you have monitored this and understand the monitored this ad understand the politics here, was there any indication he was going to quit after eight years in office? >> none at all, and even caught the press gallery by surprise. no one saw this coming. he gave a variety of reasons, family reasons, time to step back and spend more time at home. he said he could not commit to serving a fourth term should he win the next election, and he said he had nothing left in the tank. a good leader knows when it is time to go, and it is time to go. this is what john key had to say. leadership changed for the
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right reasons and handled well is good for a political party. for all these reasons, i told my cabinet and colleagues of my decision to step down. monday, expectation on national mps will hold a special caucus meeting to select a new leader, and later that day i will tender my resignation. this has been the hardest decision i have made, and i don't know what i will do next, but for me, it feels like the right time to go. the head ofo be global exchange for merrill lynch. he was still in norma sleep popular, and the government was enormously popular, and you would have been thought he was a safe bet for a fourth term, it but even malcolm turnbull sending a text reading, say it ain't so. well, it is so. yousef: quite a few people
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lining up for this gig, who was likely to take over from john key? >> john key said he would like bill english to take over. bill english held a press conference today, and he really didn't say too much about the leadership, saying he would leave it to the caucus, but let's have a listen to what bill -- had to say. -- bill english had to say. public can see it is a government with energy and direction, and there is no reason why a change in leadership should lessen that. notill english would represent a generational change. he was leader before in 2002. he has been in the parliament for 26 years, but they party will decide next monday. angie: thank you so much for
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that. coming up, donald trump doubles defendsing twitter to his phone call with taiwan's president. this is bloomberg.
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in hongt is 12:30 p.m. kong, 5:30 a.m. in rome. i am haidi lun. the italian prime minister matteo renzi is set to resign after losing his referendum on constitutional reform. lowest asell to its he conceded the people have spoken. 60% been divisions have exposed in the u k government after brexit. the foreign secretary has declined to endorse a proposal by alex that britain consider paying the eu for continued
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market access. david davis and philip had hammond conceded it may be worth it to retain the trade. highesteated from the close in 16 months as u.s. producers continue to boost drilling after opec agreed to reduce outout. american drillers added rigs for a fifth straight week. cartel members will meet with independent producers on saturday to discuss the supply curbs. environmental protesters have won a landmark victory. the army corps of engineers says there is much work to be done and alternative routes must be explored. the pipeline would have crossed land sacred to native americans and prompted protests. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.
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we will bring you some breaking headlines crossing the bloomberg terminal, bank of france governor saying that recovery is underway in europe. he is in tokyo speaking in response to the attack in referendum yesterday. closely atwill look the consequences of the italian vote. -area nations have taken big steps to advance the economy. saying monetary policy should not be the only game in town. let's get the latest from the markets. some response to what happened in italy as well. i guess it is not a positive for stocks.
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it's easy to understand why were getting a slight pullback. some of these markets, a lot of outflows, some coming back in. i think this story when you look within the equity markets is financials. the best trading strategy when italy opens up this to close your eyes when you look at the banks. a lot have people told us this morning to watch that group. we may get a knee-jerk reaction, but chances are we will get a big drop their. this is how financials are looking across the asia-pacific. it is the first trading day of the shenzhen-hong kong stock connect, opening up a new avenue for money to flow back-and-forth from hong kong into the chinese mainland, that other major exchange there. the reason i bring that up is that at the moment, at the lunch rank in hong kong and china, have a look at the amounts of
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the quota used up so far. let's get into my bloomberg and have a look at this. as therom a hundred, chart falls, it shows usage across. long story short, more money making its way into china, into hong kong, roughly over 10% for northbound used up, and southbound 5% roughly. let me wrap things up, currency in focus, the kiwi, the yen, and the euro, that's your latest quote. euro-dollar was as low as 105. as you can see, that has pared its weakness as we head into the open in london. offdly speaking, it is risk we are giving you guys over there. yousef: very much risk off as it
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stands. the spotlight is on europe today as david pointed out, in the week when the ecb holds its final meeting of the year, italy has rejected the chance to shake up its politics and the prime minister is quitting. kathleen hays tells us why this matters for global markets. vote means more uncertainty for markets, not only the future of the italian government, markets, and banks, the euro zone.of the euro let's see how this uncertainty was reflected in the italian government bond market going into the election. this is bloomberg chart 5240 five, it shows the measure of available liquidity got tighter, less liquidity in the middle of the year when that line spiked up around the brexit vote. on the right hand of your screen come the same thing happening going into the italian
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referendum vote. markets will be wondering about italian banks, will there be a move for the new government to try to bail them out? that does not exactly go along with ecb rules, but the european central bank in focus this week, not only because of uncertainty from italy, but also because it is the final meeting of the year. many of economists are saying the ecb will announce it is extending its stimulative bond purchase program, especially at this time of uncertainty for europe, an extension six months past march next year. we have a bloomberg survey to share with you, 89% of economists are looking for some tweaking in that qe bond buying program. expectations shows of the tapering, when that will start, how that has been changing recently. the blue bars show that in the previous survey we took, that
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the tapering was supposed to start in the fourth quarter of next year. the orange bars show the majority expect that to happen in the third quarter as the euro area economy recovers. onhave three fed speakers monday, three bank presidents concur with the market assessment and that the latest jobs report were strong enough for the fed to raise its key rate on december 14. we will also watch the reserve bank of india on tuesday, disappointing economic data they're suggesting a rate cut in india, the reserve bank of australia meeting on wednesday. also, some disappointing data on the economy. they're planning on holding key rates for now. a busy week ahead. let's get closer to home. were the biggest gainers across markets, capping the best week since 2009. great to have you back on the
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set. the best way to start this conversation is with this gorgeous chart, which our viewers can follow up on the bloomberg as well. this shows how the bulls appeared to be taking control of the market. the red line, the signal line, once thersion line, red line crosses the white line, that's when momentum changes. looking at the gains over the last few trading sessions, 3.2 percent and three trading sessions, what is going on here? that is disconnected from the emerging-market pessimism, isn't it? of factors of play, on the macro picture, the opec deal. the by itself is not dependent on oil. it is the most diversified market in the gulf. the truth is that the oil price affects everything across the gulf. dubai does depend on neighbors
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for tourism, inward investment, dubai so it is no surprise that is up three days running. there is a bigger picture here. for the longest time, things have been quiet across the markets in the gulf. yousef: there has been an uptick in volumes. >> exactly. we have had a lack of activity, but lately, news stories breaking, more moving money. billion joint venture. in the businessman region, and he is leading a group of investors setting up a rival to amazon, a middle eastern amazon. investment abu dhabi company investing in softbank, this japanese mega investment projects for technology, some $100 billion worth.
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so broadly speaking, where seeing activity pick up after so of flat inactivity, a lack of catalysts, money starting to flow, and may be investors betting this could lead to mergers and other acquisitions, just general activity across the markets. teachingere is the action concentrated then? >> the action is concentrated at the moment in retail driven shares. yesterday for instance, all the large volumes in union , andrties, in arab tech this is a pattern repeating itself. these guys are driving the trading volume across the dubai markets. these are traditionally retail driven shares. you could speculate these are the kind of companies that could be open to mergers, acquisitions. they have abu dhabi backing,
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which helps. we are seeing the government drive consolidation in the banking and investment sectors, but investors betting perhaps that will spread, and these are the companies where they may stand to benefit. angie: all right. thank you so much. trump has taken on china via social media, hitting back at criticism of his decision to take a phone call from the president of taiwan. we have tom mackenzie with is here right now. what has the president-elect and tweaking now? >> the president-elect taking to twitter once again to elucidate us on his foreign policy, this time hitting out at china after china criticize him over that controversial phone call. he was hitting at china for what he calls the devaluation of their currency, taxes imposed on
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u.s. products imported into china, and bringing up the topic of the south china sea, saying there had been a big military buildup there. this comes on the back of that phone call that ripped up for decades of diplomatic protocol when he spoke to taiwan's he was clearly stunned by the criticism at home domestically, and in china. whether thision is is more into rhetoric from donald trump or does indeed signify that he will be taking a more confrontational stance. we have heard from one analyst at the bank of tokyo mitsubishi who says they do think he will label china a currency manipulator quite early on in his first term. we heard from another analyst saying that if trump targets china on trade and the one china policy, then we will be in for a rough ride, which many people would say is downplaying it
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somewhat. past, the the reactions have been constrained, but definitely clear. what have we seen this time around? the reaction has been seen as somewhat restrained from the beijing's side. we heard from the foreign minister, who said this was a , and we trick by taiwan heard from the foreign minister as they lodged an official complaint in washington. a number ofa has levers it can pull in terms of putting pressure on taiwan, economic, diplomatic, and politically. ofs is before the election the president in taiwan. falloff, the end of official communications. we know there are 23 different herement set up by predecessor on things like
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investment and flights. those could be pressured as well. china could start flying its aircraft into the taiwan straits and pressure the remaining 22 countries that recognize taiwan diplomatically to come into china's fold, so a number of tools at their disposal. yousef: thanks. tom mackenzie live from china. coming up, opec's decision to cut oil production may have restored confidence in gulf markets, but our next guest says significant fiscal challenges remain. that is just ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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angie: welcome back. you are watching "blommberg markets: middle east". i am angie lau in hong kong. i am yousef gamal el-din.
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. good to see you again. some of the very interesting moves we were seeing in the oil little, trimming gains a bit from that surge we saw last week after opec cut 1.2 million barrels a day. is that enough to make a difference? are they going to execute on this? >> opec has over delivered on expectations. we are going to see some increasing oil prices. however, no one anticipates we back to $100 per barrel. this was not the objective. it is still an important agreement. importantly, it does have broader implications. if you look into some of the details of that and the fact they decided to do that in a non-opec agreement, it will better provide the successful
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implementation of the agreement. the major at some of opec countries such as russia, saudi arabia, they have put aside differences, and they have decided to come to an agreement, which actually this will build up momentum for further cooperation that may be needed in order to contain the emergence of u.s. shale. this beautiful chart. our clients can pull this up on their bloomberg. hedge funds reducing long zen shorts before the open. long and shorts before the open. does that affect the credit spreads story in the gulf? >> clearly the last agreement of opec is a positive. it is not so much that it will bring additional revenue in or even reduce deficits
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postponed structural reforms, but most importantly, it will actually bring up confidence for the markets. both internal investors and external investors. credit, itthe gcc looks expensive, spreads have tightened a lot relative to other markets. we remain more skeptical for the next couple of months about the direction because we do have the rising u.s. yields, which will m december andro will have a negative impact because the region is highly correlated to u.s. rates, but we have new supply coming to the market, so these two factors together will have negative impact in the near term. long-term, if the oil price continues to sustain, that will be a positive development. thee: do you think
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implementation will be a concern? can you trust it? good thing isthe that we do have both opec and non-opec countries agreeing to can ensure aich better implementation of the program of the proposed cuts. there are some risks there, but the groups aref serious about delivering what they have agreed to recently. , it really quickly is to offset any kind of u.s. shale producer play, but if he price level,her $55 or $60, we could see that, and then what happens in 2017? oilhat is the main risk if prices overshoot $70 a barrel. that is also a risk for the region because it is likely that
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some of the proposed structural reforms which have been agreed to be implemented might be delayed or even scrapped, which would be a negative, but generally speaking, i think it will take some time to rebalance the oil supply, and i don't personally expect oil prices shooting two significant levels that could drive u.s. production significantly higher. at the same time, a lot of the u.s. shale industry is still suffering from defaults, and these financial issues will persist for some time. angie: we will leave it there. thank you. still ahead, what is next for italy's banks after prime minister matteo renzi's defeat in the referendum? is from rome, coming up next. -- the latest from rome, coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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, we arestill with us following this a tying referendum story as it unfolds. the is your take about impact on the emerging markets space specifically? referendum as not the first surprise emerging markets have been facing this year, brexit, the trump election, more significant surprises. that emerginging market credit has proved resilient to these major surprise events, and it will be the case for the referendum. details, the the exposure of emerging markets to italy in terms of trade, not that significant. one of the risk factors that can emerge if we have an escalation of a banking crisis in italy, there is a risk that can spillover into emerging markets. yousef: on that note, i have the
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financial conditions index on the bloomberg terminal. it shows you the ongoing restrain conditions. angie: francine lacqua joins us now from rome. what now? francine: we are expecting matteo renzi to tender his resignation later on today. he said he will resign because his phot was so skewed to no. have all beentes counted, but it is about have an counted, but it is about 60% no, 40% yes. matteo renzi gave an emotional speech last night, and he will now go to the president. ask someonet will
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to form a coalition, a technocratic government, then we will have to see over the next couple of days exactly who comes into power. the priority at this point will be to change electoral law. this referendum was supposed to be on the constitution, but the electoral law is the priority, because a lot of people are anxious to change the system for the lower house. the current system would give the majority of seats to leading parties, and that might turn out to be the five-star movement, a year old-skeptic party. a lot of focus on how the financials will hold up with all of this unfolding. what does this mean for italy? francine: well what it means is that we could go through a new phase of turmoil. the political uncertainty following the referendum could
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complicate capital raising efforts. the ft reports they are meeting today. they will begin shares as soon as next week to raise that 5 billion euros. goingoblem is you're through a huge capital increase at a moment of political uncertainty where people are doubting the stability of the italian political system. if you are an investor, you may shy away from that. today will be crucial for leaders to speak basically to shareholders, to their constituency, to make sure that capital raising plans go as smooth as possible. angie: francine lacqua live from rome. yousef: she will be a cross the story throughout the day and speaking to decision-makers. that is it for this edition of "blommberg markets: middle east" . tope: we will have all the
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stories from around the world, coming up. bloomberg tech is next. thank you for joining us.
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>> it's 1:00 here in hong kong. an update of the top stories. asian stocks falling after the italian prime minister lost his referendum on reform and resigned. the euro has slipped to the lowest since 2015. 50% -- 60% had about of support with almost all boats being counted. the new zealand prime minister says he will stand down next week and quit politics altogether at the election. he says he is not a career politician and it's time for someone else to lead the national party. find -- thed finance


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