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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  December 5, 2016 12:00pm-3:31pm EST

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from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york where covering stories from washington to rome and taipei this hour. u.s. and european stocks gaining as investors looked past political turmoil in italy after a referendum there. china overp takes on the weekend saying he won't be told who he should talk to or who we shouldn't. amid concerns china could be named a currency manipulator. a restaurant tour tells us about his new show on vice network's munchies channel. d nes wh first world -- news with courtney collins for the courtney: authorities now say 36 people have died in a fire. they expect to find more bodies
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in the building. the cause remains unknown. it is the deadliest u.s. fire in more than a decade. a judge ordered a hand count of michigan's presidential results to begin today. the results the recount could be finished ahead of the deadline. jill stein spoke about the effort outside trump towers in europe city. >> that it's our first and foremost intention is to verify the photometric we have an accurate and secure and fair voting system. whether it will change the outcome we don't know. i think it would be unfair to raise expectations that the outcome is going to change. that is not our intent. a recount is underway in wisconsin and the green party is trying to get a statewide recount in pennsylvania. malaysianof the
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airlines flight victims are offering cash rewards for anyone who finds debris from the missing jetliner. the plane crashed in the southern indian ocean in march of 2014. a malaysian official investigating the disappearance is picking up debris that is already been found. the pieces will be analyzed to see if they came from the aircraft. abe will become the first sitting japanese prime minister to visit pearl harbor. he will visit with president obama at the end of the month. wednesday march the 75th anniversary of just can't attack on pearl harbor which pulled the u.s. into world war ii. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. very much about halfway into the trading day in the u.s.. abigail joins us now with the latest. abigail: we are starting off with a bang in u.s. equities.
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the three major averages include the dow s&p 500 and nasdaq, the dow is trading at another record high hired by bankshares. we season performance outperformance in the nasdaq up nearly 1%. technology really recovering from the slump we saw late last week. an interesting thing since the election has been the volatility in some of the tech shares, especially the big ethernet names. the is a big chart of facebook, amazon, and of course alphabet. of volatility since the election. the question is whether or not these stocks can find their footing. one interesting idea raised by one person is that if snapchat does go public that that could be used as a source of funding and this could be weighing on these stocks along with the idea
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that donald trump's protectionism that his administration could have a protectionist flayer could weigh on this companies with more international exposure. withinket of strength what we're seeing over all is some sporting good retailers. nike and under armour both trading higher. seessts are when hamburg more than 50% upside potential while under armour is trading higher on the announcement that the company has struck a 10 year deal with major league baseball to basically have the under armour logo on those mlb jerseys . that will start in 2020. it is the first such deal for under armour. we saw strength for some luxury retailers today including michael cordes and coach. one thing that could be happening is the idea that burberry has rejected takeover approaches from coach and that
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is giving that stock a lift. kate spade and michael kors also there. david: bank of england governor mark carney delivering the liverpool university ross lecture and taking questions from the audience. i'm joined by michael mckee. why are we paying attention to this lecture? michael: we are looking for policy implications. yes and spoken to the talk to parliament a month ago. the implication of the fall in sterling is that inflation will be higher. mark carney is saying the bank of england will tolerate a. of above target cpi. most of the is 2% target is that it should be according to consensus 2.5% and may go higher than that. he says their tolerance for above target cbi is limited.
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he will probably have to raise interest rates if they get to 2.5% that could take three years at 100 basis point of moves first of you can expect the bank of england to be looking at raising interest rates going forward. will slownsumption because inflation is going to squeeze income. that could take up to 1% for u.k. gdp over the next three years. the story is that the economy itself is not feared that badly. have market activity can you can see that growing at the fastest pace in 10 months in the months of november. what does that say but the health of the economy specifically in the u.k.? holding the economy is up. it is a longer-term issue with what deals with brexit. so far the uncertainty that would cut growth hasn't really happened. but that could come. inflation is the one measure what we are seeing some evidence that it is creeping into the
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u.k. economy. that could squeeze incomes and squeeze growth. he is looking at a bank of england that will have to respond. david: thank you for that joining us now as we discussed speech iny's liverpool. you can follow along in real-time go to live go on the bloomberg. todaystocks are higher despite increasing anxiety about global uncertainty. the s&p 500 has some more room to run. he was more inside his bloomberg stocks market reporter oliver. get some of these outlooks. by two it will be driven things. either multiple expansions or earnings driven. it will be both, basically hearsay there will be the sort of continuation of the rotation we have seen that there has been a reaction to the
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a 3% rallyat perhaps in the s&p 500 doesn't totally encompass there could be potentially some more rotation that happened as people move into those companies and some industrial company to seeing rallying post election. we are seeing that being a multiple expansion which you can kind of extrapolate as a perhaps they will just move equities off the block is a have been and stocks continue to go up first of ultimately everybody is bullish as well. david: talk about the earnings driven environment what will it take to get there? what will be the catalyst? oliver: you basically have a gaps toan with a lot of be filled. the take away message is that we will be spending a lot expanding the industry here. we will loosen regulations on financial companies that is a lot of the reason behind the drive into some of the sectors.
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n investors put money into equities and fund of flows pick up here. the earnings case specifically has this dollar in oil we have a comparable year-over-year net which will be very favorable. david: talk about picking stocks and sectors this is a stock pickers market. what did he have to say in his note today? comes back to this dispersion since the election. not exactly his chart but this is one we put together that speaks to the same idea looking at the difference between the biggest winners in the market versus the biggest losers. right now it has been financial versus utilities on the other side. the white light at the bottom shows you that big pickup that there is these two groups going into very different directions. if you are an equity investor and want to be in a market that rewards you for picking good companies and taking companies rather than what other people outlook,, generating
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this is the market you can do it in. goldman also made this call in june. it didn't quite happen with brexit because after a big event the risk event shot up which means dispersion goes down. this is a big part of the sword because this continues to happen investors will look at the market and say i will get a decent opportunity to pick up the right stocks. david: what are strategist saying about uncertainty? is more certainty in terms of who will occupy the treasury department for some bigger economic advisers in the donald trump white house. has some of that uncertainty been a laid by that -- allayed by that? outer: i think it is still there. there is an ideas and not get caught empty-handed. promises all of these and plants come to fruition these companies will benefit. whether or not they will benefit as much as people are put into
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are on at financials tear right now and energy stocks. that is hard to know. but let's not get caught kind the pages that happened. david: oliver, thank you are a stocks reporter from bloomberg news. volume is not stopped falling this year. we take a look at what is inside that in our deals report. ♪
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david: this is bloomberg markets it is time for the deals report. we zero in on the m&a business. today we're taking a look at m&a in the world of tech.
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the global financial services leader at the y brings us now -- joins us now. oflook, in this world financial technology maybe just i was a what exactly financial technology is. it feels like there was only different companies that fall underneath this umbrella. >> you absolutely right in it's a very inclusive and broad definition. it is reallyout technology combining with financial services to enable and disrupt the industry. it falls into particular sleeves. people focus around the payment sector as being one sleeve of financial technology and live marketplace lenders being another. have blocked chain as being another area of focus in terms of financial technology. then you get some industry lenses so sure tech. how is that with the insurance agenda? of course there is operational
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type things like regulatory tech . it is a fairly expensive market. x: on friday was on the office of the comptroller of currency allow that some financial technology firms speaking to how they phrased it will be now chartered as special-purpose national banks. what companies are we talking about within that world and how does that potentially affect m&a? will traditional banks have a higher risk appetite to potentially buy some of these financial technology companies? thene: the office of comptroller of currency announced they would be enabling special-purpose charters. what remains to be seen this with the concept to bring into focus what that reality is and what the requirements are. but particularly it allows the
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institutions that do some of the g related activities are they do fiduciary and product lending or check solution. those institutions might be interested in a charter because it takes them out of the state i state regulatory environment and gives them a federal mandate. they can operate across the u.s.. alex: does that include marketplace companies? nadine: it could. as opposed to complying with or being regulated by each individual state a federal charter would allow them to respond to one federal regulator. particularly, of interest would be the marketplace lenders the companies you reference. simplify the regime. what remains to be seen is what the application process is. that comes with a compliance cost and a regulatory cost it will be some threshold requirements they will now be forced to comply with. there is this benefit but also
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the cost associated with it. it is a couple of things the banking industry will be focused on and continue to focus on whether or not there was unfair competition in the marketplace between those that are regulated and those that are not thet. startups are thingy and what size and scale based on my growth model does this particular charter make sense for me. interesting. one of the things that creates innovation is low-cost to entry and low barriers to entry. regulation and charters don't necessarily scream that. at some point you might get to a certain size and scale where that is an option for you. clearly we're entering a world now under a trumpet administration where teams like across the board there was some level of capacity -- opacity heh how strict or non-strict
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is going to be. where would you put financial technology in this confusion? is it really opaque? nadine: shades of opaque. i think it is really opaque. questions to what a trump administration will do to the regulatory environment. it is not clear yet. i think some fundamentals around the philosophies and regulation are not going away. what could be interesting is that when i talked to our clients and our executives they still spend a significant amount of their time consumed by the regulatory agenda. that is not a lot of financial ofital to focus, but a lot intellectual capital that could be deployed elsewhere to a broader growth mandate. a lot ofre is attention to bitcoin. two bc 2017 were some big financial institutions start
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buying up some of these many startups in both of those worlds? you expect consolidation within those startups? nadine: i think for the block chain is a proof of concept stage. now there are use cases that have been socialized. i do think there is a lot of adoption but it has not happened yet. you could see a few quality players rise to the top. consortiums have formed within no who they want to work with. which is have to the use cases into operation. requires a network of people to be signed in and take part of what you're trying to do. seeink by virtue of that we a winnowing of the players in the marketplace you can see have certain consortiums chosen their players. i think it is one that fundamentally changes the
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industry. of conceptthe proof into reality at think will be an important thing. i think we are close. >> thank you for joining us. david, back to you. ahead, donald trump takes to twitter to take on chinese policy. this comes after a congratulatory phone call with the president from taiwan included in the ramifications of all of that. ♪
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this is bloomberg markets let's turn to politics now and the latest on u.s. relations with china after donald trump spoke to the president of taiwan. the president elect to defend the call in a series of tweets saying did china ask us if it was ok to devalue that currency making it hard for companies to understand.
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or to build a massive military complex in the middle of the south china sea. joining us now from washington is bloomberg politics reporter so many candidates now to become secretary of state i imagine most of them probably cringe when they saw that coming across on twitter. what does john kerry -- has john kerry said about the policy via twitter? the obama administration's approach is not to make policy via twitter. very different approach to china right now. i think the obama administration has some concerns with the way china is conducting its economic policy but it's also been if not seen the kind of confrontations that donald trump has shown as president-elect in the series of tweets on china. andveryone knows, china united states are enormously dependent on each other
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economically. the night's states fish to fry than china and potentially a call with taiwan. there is a lot of uncertainty as to what this could go. david: what has the reaction been from china? donald trump said repeatedly he intends to label china a currency manipulator. did he in fact do that via twitter and how is china responding? sahir: china responded through its ministry of foreign affairs as dismissing this as a trick by taiwan. but it's official communique took a much stronger stance of denouncing it and said that trump is creating problems -- trouble i believe is the word used to -- for the china u.s. relationship and creating trouble for the united states itself. the president-elect to pull back. i think china is taking this seriously and it is
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understandable as to why it is because trump spent much of the campaign very publicly and vocally going after china over its economic practices arguing that it was engaging in predatory behavior that was bad for the united states workers. donaldigns look like trump wants to follow through with that and wants to open with a very tough stance against china in the hope that he can get them to walk down from some economic practices he believes are bad for americans. david: give us the latest on the candidates auditioning for an open to become secretary of state. david petraeus was on sunday shows this week and to make the case for his candidacy for that position saying it is up to others to judge whether the discrepancies in his past preclude him from becoming secretary. where do things stand? treaus seems to me here still in the mix that will be somewhat ironic given the main criticism of hillary clinton was her carelessness with classified information.
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he was actually convicted on his charge by the fbi. others who have been in the mix including rudy giuliani and mitt romney it is not clear whether the stand right now it happened some whispers that they are no longer at the top of the list. seeing jon huntsman the former ambassador to china under the obama administration also in the mix now and huntsman of course prays to donald trump after his tweets on china. that coudl can make a difference. that there we take into the global media compass for exclusive interview with the sale of chemical investors. ♪ ways wins.
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you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. ♪ david: live, from bloomberg has world headquarters in new york, i'm david gura. this is "bloomberg markets." david westin is stained --
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standing by with an exclusive interview with chris branch. david? david: thank you very much. the co-cio of gabelli funds is with us. let's talk about what you launched last thursday, a new kind of etf that is specifically directed at john malone investments. that's right. we've been following them for 30 years. it is called the gabelli media fund. it will invest in the 30 or so companies associated with john malone. passive, is not purely as i and her stand. chris: that is correct. --is a non-spam nontransparent, actively managed etf. we use it for judgment as he would with open-ended mutual funds. it's not difficult
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understand why someone would want to track that investment over the years. what happens if and when he is no longer active as an investor? chris: it is a good question and it is much bigger than john. it is more than just the malone fund. one of the least appreciated aspects is the team he has surrounded himself with. many people who are terrific managers. we are investing alongside them. david: one of the things that people have remarked about with john malone is how studious he is doing deals around taxes. he's very smart. we have a new president who says he's going to cut taxes and simplify things. without change malones value? chris: i don't think so. it's about payless, pay letter -- later. there will always be corporate taxes and it is still going to matter. tax allocation, as we see it. david: [laughter] a skeptic. let's talk bradley about the
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business of media right now. time warner, you guys of talked about it. -- have talked about it. more chances of that going through with a donald trump presidency? chris: i think it's a little bit better than that on the one hand, more favorable with the sec. he has publicly stated he would block the deal. now you have to take him seriously but unnecessarily literally. i think that the department of justice will give it a fair look. i think it's a little better than 70%. david: what does that indicate, if anything, about the difference between content and distribution? chris: the interplay between in the media, for long time -- in 2009 we have seen distributed place for content. this follows a similar template. you make it more valuable by bringing content to it. some people are skeptical of that. i'm not sure that i totally buy
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it, but we are in the new world where remote viability is important and companies need to be able to distinguish themselves from a regulatory standpoint. david: looking back on the nbc deal, did it enhance the value? chris: they would indicate that they had. one of the different things about that deal is that they bought at the bottom of the cycle, it was under managed at the time. but they brought some additional value to it by putting the content through distribution platforms. david: that was also in a tethered cable world. we are now in a wireless world. all intents and purposes that is what drove at&t. what does that say about where we are going with over the top to wireless.
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chris: they launched their over-the-top entry in there will be many others. similarly in those distribution companies they will think about how they play in the new world. that may cause comcast, charter, and others to think about increasing their investment in wireless. david: what does that say about t-mobile or sprint question mark other possible candidates out there. chris: clearly you got them is potentially available assets. i wouldn't rule out verizon. a gigantic deal that would not be beyond the possibility for some of my comcast. infrastructure just when it ends next year, i think you'll see more. david: you have said you are skeptical. chris: the same time that they did their deal, you had time
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warner spinning off from time warner cable -- spinning off. warner spinning off from time warnerit's difficult to do. i've had a personal bias towards distribution and whatever content you decide to watch, you will need broadband, fast broadband to do that. changing the distributor's pricing power. there have been multi-regulatory barriers to really differentiating yourself by content. as they come down, we will see. david: it could also go up in terms of threat to content providers and creators. you could have more of a pressure to make a common carrier regulation. chris: well, we had that through the reclassification. one of the things we are talking about is whether that gets rolled back in the trump administration.
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david: talk to us about sports rights. the nfl was off 11%, that was the last number i saw. , is the bloomways off the rose in sports? when you particularly consider how expensive it has become? chris: that's true. sports is not immune to these changes. people cutting the cord. it has to have an impact on viewership. but when it comes to what people watch, sports and news are still going to be the king and will be forever. david: gabelli funds is still a large investor in viacom. explain why, provided the price was right, the merger would make sense. chris: it would be beneficial to
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their cable networks, getting some more international away from u.s. advertising compared to what they have been doing for the last 10 years. i think they are better together than apart. do you have any sense of timing about how long this will take? >> they're working. clearly there is a controlling shareholder. they will second largest amount of economic voting stock. we may have more of a voice than others. 21st century fox is another major mobile you company. not too long ago they tried to buy and then went off the rails with the other problems they had in england. if that deal made sense then, does it still make sense now, and should it go forward? chris: james murdoch was evasive
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. they have said before that it is not a natural state for them to own 40% of it. they will be a buyer or seller. my guess is that they are more likely a buyer than a seller. the question is, has enough time passed, an of water gone under the bridge, that they would be able to do that. david: talk more broadly about the new administration and what it means for dealmaking in the media space. is it just mean more consolidation and media deals? >> i think so. we will have a more friendly sec . it's unclear what they would think about a wireless carrier going to that. no doubt someone will try. david: mr. trump has been fairly outspoken about the news media. to what extent is that likely to trickle down to the apparatus? >> the doj in particular is a very professional organization. they will be looking at it in a
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fair and balanced way. i'm not sure that there is much of a trickle-down. david: what is your big conviction trade going forward? next three to five years? been amalone has terrific individual to invest with. both the distribution and content globally. underlying charter communications, that's clean, as i mentioned earlier. summing notthat say stars, lions gate, and discovery? >> not necessarily, it is meditate some work in they will get their. david: thank you so very much. back to you, david. david: thank you, david. oft was chris marangi gabelli funds. the french minister is speaking right now in paris and says he is stepping down tomorrow.
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let's bring in john, our international correspondent today. this on the heels of the decision of the president not to seek another term. what do we know about his candidacy? john: for the french left, it is a tall order in disarray, he will be up against three or four other candidates. it is at a time when the national fund has already found a candidate and the center-right has a candidate in place. it's going to be very difficult for a new candidate to breakthrough. david: the decision not to run was statesmanlike, in his words. give us a sense of the timetable. italy, france, all throughout europe, what is the timetable? will be inrimary january. there will be a lot of
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jockeying. basically it will be a straight, they hitting campaign until first round of the presidential election in april. and then of course, the second round this week will be the run-up in the top two candidates. but this is a crowded field. if you look out at who said he would run as an independent, putting in a pretty strong choice, but i think, you know, it's very right now on the right. david: going back to italy, we are waiting for them to meet toh the president of italy accept that resignation. what can we expect after that? that has been sidelined. what do you expect the next steps to be? john: find the caretaker, whoever it might be. the current finance minister is the front runner and has been for quite some time. but there is a range of names
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looking here, we have the transport minister, the culture minister, even the senate speaker, all of these names are now in the mix. it really just depends on how ambitious he wants to be. there's talk of a new electoral possibility is that i could do very well. what we going to see is the political establishment circling the wagons and trying to figure out how to keep those people in power. david: there is so much the needs to be fixed in italy right now. how much policy is going to get done here in the next matter of months when you have a caretaker government? john: it's going to be very difficult. when you look at everything the populists are doing extremely well.
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if you are in power you are constantly looking over your shoulders looking at policy measures a could be viewed as unpopular. they are just railing at you and staying out of touch. ignoring the concerns of military workers. like politicians across the region, they are stuck in his weird dynamic. at the same time, those are the changes that need to be done to sort of fix some of the root problems that the populists are feeding on. david: what is the prism through which we should look at the results of yesterday's referendum? a referendum on populism generally or something more domestic? john: it's a good question and him -- an important point to make. i would be careful about transposing those lessons on to the rest of europe. --'t forget, they merely very clearly made this a referendum about himself.
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i think he later regretted that. this was not so much a domestic referendum as it was on the confidence of populists trying to make it out to say that's what it was, but we be careful not to assume that we are going to have a whole wave of donald trump's coming into power over the next year. john: thank you. have spotted the orange clock. mario batali joins us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: this is "bloomberg
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markets." i'm david gura. looking at a major marketing indexes right now, the dow is .own on quarter of 1% the s&p 500 is down half of 1%. 1%.nasdaq is up by 8/10 of let's get more now from abigail doolittle. abigail: this after the italian referendum with italy voting no to constitutional reform, carving out another record high with a real strength in europe. closing up nicely, the dax closed 1.5%, with this picture confirmed by safe haven bonds, and interview chart of the ten-day yield. initially it did trade down in verse two yields, but then quickly selling off. bonds sold off as years traded higher, overall the 10 year yield is supporting the idea that investors are relatively
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complacent to the referendum. used tos becoming more it. 5262, thisk at the # is a year-to-date chart of the brexit yield, suggesting was the risk off event of 2016. a safe decline in yield from back in january all the way back down to 3.1% in july, climbing steadily higher into the u.s. election. on that event, which could have been risk off, the yield climbed above the 200 day moving average , which could suggest that more course,is ahead and, of the move today will support that, david. right, thank you, abigail. coming up, hope you are hungry. world-renowned chef mario batali is with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ david: this is "bloomberg markets." mario batali has been a staple of culinary television for two decades now. andng over the kitchen rooftop gardens advice headquarters. he joins us now. a pleasure to have you with us here. but start with the news of the day. we've been focused for a few weeks, a few months, the final state dinner in italy -- in honor of italy, you are asked to go for it. mario: we had a great time. the white house was cool. hopefully it still is. it was an honor to cook for them, they were excited, it was passionate and juicy. we have a mutual friend who is and we walked in the
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room and they were like -- stop, get him. a what goes into planning many like that when you get the call? has a lot ofbama great opinions. she wanted to take some things in the message was to do italian food with all-american ingredients. she brought the tasting group up . it was a great time. she is just so cool, everything about them was so cool. it was the right kind of hospitality. david: tell us about your new show. why was this something you are interested in? mario: i discovered vice and vice land through my children. they get a lot of their entertainment and information from there. what is going on over there, but they have is a place where there is no pretense. it is always about a point of view. that part of news is an intriguing place. it is being sold as impartial, was justi got there it
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fascinating. we went over there and they had this kitchen and garden area that worked. we revisited the kind of show where i talk and teach people about the specifics of something. at the same time, this is new, and interviewing the people. it really is a lot of fun. david: how much has food television changed since you started? perspective and point of view in the cooking focus television? mario: initially it was just showing people a lot of stuff. the space wasn't really sure whether people needed a medical doctor or a chef or a cheery housewife or a fire department guy, they were trying to the route who was going to help lead it. in the beginning it was all chefs. they realized that wasn't necessarily going to help people . and they went for the cheery housewives. then they went for the brutal competition and the insulting, diminishing, character meeting,
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and they are trying to figure out where the spaces. my message hopefully is that information is good, more information is better, historical perspective of geography fitting into it. something about delicious. if you can diminish the fear, that's what food tv should be about. putting it in a cultural perspective is a way to break down the walls that people have built or are trying to build. in fact, the whole idea of the culture coming together and remembering its past celebrating its future through food is where i want to be. to headhat is it like up an empire? you can quibble with the term if you want, but you most likely have to cede a lot of control. i was joking during the break that i saw you there, still involved, by the necessity must be pulled in a lot of different directions. >> everyone is effectively a partner in the operation.
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they came up through the operation. it's not like i went on craigslist and through a dart at a dartboard. it was more like -- i am cultivating the talent that came through my organization and the only reason we open his restaurants is to accommodate my people that would eventually go else.or somebody we open new restaurants, but it is always with the core team that has worked with me. working with howard's family's .atural i don't have to be the smartest, the youngest, or the coolest guy in the room. i just have to be in the room. it makes them happy and makes me feel empowered. david: you have placed your in various places. what is your involvement with it? mario: we are talking about rolling us all into the international thing. fundamentally it's about shopping, eating, tasting, and
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learning. my message is always -- give them the fantastic problem -- products, but we want them to come away with the notion that it is about cooking at home. >> what is interesting to you, outside the states? mario: i love shanghai, australia, places with beautiful people and they are hungry. david: there you go. find them anywhere. "pursuits,"eck out go to the bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: 1 p.m. in new york, 6 p.m. in london, 2:00 a.m. in hong kong. welcome to "bloomberg markets." ♪
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we are covering stories from wahoo, toronto, frankfurt, and berlin at this hour. we're waiting for the resignation of the italian prime minister. from the eurasia group prime minister. janet yellen's future has been in question. with she become allies trump rather than enemies? volkswagen, looking to move fast with a new service. julie hyman is here with the latest. julie? julie: it is interesting that we have seen this resilience in the markets now in the wake of the italian referendum. i will dig into that more at around 1:40. in the meantime, the nasdaq is rallying the most after falling the most last week. the dow has of course been the big winner ever since the election here.
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we have got a sort of similar pattern today. energy and financials. here's the dow in the wake of the election, up by about 5%. we have seen some large-cap companies doing well, small caps also performing well. if you look at the biggest winners by market cap, and losers at the election, it's an interesting and telling list. jpmorgan has gained $41 billion to rise to a new record. berkshire hathaway, ge, exxon mobil on the winner's list as well. losers, tech has done poorly in this time. , $20e, facebook, amazon million in market cap with johnson & johnson, microsoft, and apple on the list as health care has been perceived to be a performing well in the wake of the election. back to today, bond yields have continued to go higher off the basis point.
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chance of being christ into fed funds futures that they will be tough more than one quarter of a point at the fed december meeting next week. an interesting possibility. on the commodities front today, we have gas prices in particular notable, net net -- natural gas up 6% today. natural high with an outlet for frosty weather. some opec number -- members are meeting with non-opec nations to talk about production targets in gold futures today as we see a little bit of a more risk on environment. thank you, julie. first word news, courtney collins. courtney: thank you so much, david. oakland, california, 36 people have died in a fire in a late-night and party.
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firefighters expect to find more bodies in the ruins of the warehouse known as the ghost ship. 100 people may have been inside the building when it interrupted in the blaze. the cause remains unknown. it is the deadliest u.s. fire and a decade. house minority leader, nancy the decision to tap ben carson as the head of housing and urban development disconcerting and the cirque -- disturbingly unqualified. she says there is no evidence that dr. carson brings the necessary credentials to hold the position for such immense responsibilities and impact on families and communities in america. italy has fallen into political limbo. the prime minister is resigning after a vote overwhelmingly projected a constitutional .efund -- referendum it could open the door to the antiestablishment movement that is running neck and neck with the democratic party in the
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polls. today the eu commissioner spoke to bloomberg about the italian vote. >> it is a referendum on italian politics and the constitution. he's going to resign as a strong prime minister with important reforms, politically and socially, i am confident they have the means to address the situation. courtney: downplaying the impact of the vote on the european unity. seth blatter says he has lost his appeal to the arbitration committee. the former fifa president, barred for approving payments in 2011. he says he will accept the decision. first abe will become the sitting japanese prime minister to visit pearl harbor, visiting the hawaiian naval base with president obama at the end of the month. it marks the 75th anniversary of
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the japanese attacks on pearl harbor, which pulled the united states into world war ii. global news, 24 hours per day, 100 20 countries. i'm courtney collins. this is bloomberg. david? after the reform referendum failed, what about the rest of europe? earlier today on "surveillance," ian belsky and brian discussed how it affects the eu, especially on july merkel. merkel.a >> there is no force other than her for a stronger or tighter integration as a whole and obviously the transatlantic relationship, the most important in sort of underpinning u.s. localization has been for cicely repudiated by everything in europe over the last year, as
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well as what the elections were decided three weeks ago. but look, it certainly seems very likely that she gets another term as chancellor in germany. the problem is, her ability to lead. >> brian belsky is an expert on equity markets. he has been right. he has been confirmed. we have new information from trump and others. is that going to widen the gap that you study with political economics? what he has for a bull market, will it be ever farther apart because of the working-class people? no reason to believe that populism is losing momentum in europe right now. it is constrained significantly in germany. already the two establishment parties that have been taken out of the mess. if you asked me what is driving it, it is identity politics, concerns about immigrants and refugees. >> your corporate officers drive
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your world. do they care about dr. bremmer's world? >> sure, they care. one of the interesting things that he talked about was how angela merkel was going to tighten up the european union. that probably needs to happen. what we need is massive structural fundamental reform in europe. if she is able to tighten up the con strengths of what's happening in europe there is a better chance for fundamental reform because all we have seen to date is really monetary policy. we need to see these companies cut costs and structurally reform themselves. >> big oil company, 5.6% dividend. is is the ultimate straw hat pic for you? >> no, because of the end of the day to facilitate that dividend we need to be able to see cash flow and i'm not convinced that a lot of these european companies will move on the cash flow front to pay those kinds of dividends. at the high end of the cash flow is being used to grow and we
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need to be able to grow and expand the cash flow. given constraints with respect to business and increasing regulation over there, it's going to be difficult for a lot of these companies to continue to grow. >> if you look at france and italy, do you think the citizens of these countries are pro-europe? in france and italy you have populations that are moderately so, but those numbers have been going down consistently. you see europe is a construct right now as failing. the reason that we put it together was to have a common currency and common values. to bring these countries together and create a supranational identity and create a level of loyalty for governance that was above the individual countries. that is obviously breaking down. you saw that with the surprise in theer sarkozy
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primaries. you see it with them in capable of driving some level of strong leadership. brexit is still overwhelmingly the big story here. everything else small change. in part because of how big it has been and because of how much distraction it takes from every other political story. the ability to drive proactive political governance in europe that would make the place look like it is run better is so far from the agenda today. >> but can we really say with certainty that with referendum and a huge no vote, that 60% is an antiestablishment vote? he's been in power for two years, but he's hardly establishment. is it not confusing? just mean that the government is focusing on the wrong time for reforms? leader whoit is a
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got over his skis, right? he originally made is not just a referendum on politics and sweeping medical reform. lessons onffering unpacking the reform. 145 euros an hour. people didn't understand it, but they did that this is something he strongly wanted. his popularity has slipped to horrible levels over the course of the last two months. the fact that he said that this is no longer about me -- well, it is sort of about me. ultimately it's his ability to get what he wanted. people have found all over the developed world that they don't vote for policies, they will for leaders and support the policies of the leaders that they like. that is precisely how he went wrong here. he couldn't maintain the support of the italian people and he didn't lose small. he lost 60% to 70% of the vote.
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david: that was ian bremmer, president of the eurasia group, and brian belski. italy,inister in offering his resignation. coming up, volkswagen focusing on ride sharing. why are they going head with apple and uber? next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: just want to clarify what is happening in italy there on the heels of the referendum. the prime minister has met with his cabinet and is headed to a dealing with the italian president. he is expected to tender his resignation, formally. some of the biggest
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business stories in the news right now. having won the contract partner with the trying field in the gulf of mexico, bhp secure the contract with a cash bid for the deal. the first ever for them for the state-run oil producer, trying on 25 miles in the territorial waters border that was discovered in 2012. new technology from amazon could make cashiers and checkout lines so 2016. testing out there just walk out technology next year. customers scan phones at the entrance, pick up whatever they want, and leave. the items are added to a virtual shopping cart in real-time, charting the prime account when they leave the store. credit suisse will pay more than $16 million to settle claims that the u.s. unit violated money-laundering safeguards. regulators also say the bank failed to properly implement an
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automated surveillance system to monitor money moves. they have agreed to resolve the case without admitting or denying the allegations. that is your business flash update. volkswagen has announced plans to expand its mobility services division that could see it going head-to-head with uber and apple, they hope that the car stem thel help to recovery in the-year-old emissions scandal. tom is labeling this as their 13th brand. why do that? what does that mean? >> what this does is it puts them on the same level as the volkswagen carmaking brands. what is interesting about this is that it is strictly services at this point that they have outline for new business. ride handling and car sharing.
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there is no actual car attached to this new division. it may actually use electric cars produced by some of the other brands in the portfolio. how big of an investment is this? how much money are they putting in? tom: they are saying that it is a substantial, 3 million euro investment. of course, that is much less uber's $69mover's -- billion investment. it's still early days. they have said they want to do more next year, but if this point again it is still focusing pretty much on services. and at this point also they earnings.ecified in about three months ago volkswagen's ceo said that they
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were looking at large profits eventually from this business. however, of course they have to deal with the cost of their euro deals scandal. that will presumably take precedent over making money off of this. david: what do we know about how they view their competition here? big companies already weighing in. what makes them think that getting into it at this point, later than some of the rivals, is going to go on? >> what has happened is that miller has been in talks with google, apple, about various aspects of cooperation. but it didn't go anywhere.
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one year ago miller said that those companies were viable. it looks like they are going back to that. the german companies have not really been looking at cooperation with the silicon valley biggies with electric servicesthese mobility . including automated driving. they will cooperate, with each audi, for example, daimler, bmw, now jointly owned here. how much of this, as a last question to you, is part of a grand strategy by volkswagen versus trying to shift course from the emissions scandal? trying to attract -- detract attention from the scandal? is this something they haven't wanted to do for some time, to get into this field of automotive engineering? folks diesel scandal volkswagen to accelerate their strategy change, which was
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already being considered last year before the omissions cheating scandal broke. is 2025.urrent target that seems to be the target date automotive new technology adaptations. they have said that they want to add 30 electric cars into operation by 2025. at the moment they have got a couple that are electric adaptations of current models, but nothing specifically say thatwhere you can this is holy and electric car to begin with. unlike, say, bmw, which has a brand that has been on sale for a few years. daimler and mercedes developed concept, which will be in the sub brand again for electric and automated driving in the future david:.
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tom, -- feature. david: tom, great to speak with you. you can check out more at an earlier time tonight, 5 p.m. eastern. gone are the days of the boring wall street analyst note. how are the top banks defining their new style? this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ david: this is "bloomberg markets." merrill lynch trying to redefine its daily market summaries by adding color to the research. we are talking snappier titles, boulder predictions, and a sharper sense of humor. let's ask the reporter who wrote the story about this. bank of america merrill lynch, where did this come from?
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a need to be more competitive or fatigue? >> i think both. these days, clients don't want to read 20 or 30 pages unless it is something they are very focused on. they want short, snappy pieces that tell them what they need to know and is entertaining, if possible. david: there is a routine to some of this day today. the head of research is setting the tone. be bold if you have a call. don't stand back from it. aggressively pitch it, have some fun with it. write the difference between being bold, producing some thing eye-catching, and if they were not to get it right, to make fun of people. lananh: i think that is a risk for analysts. they obviously have profound research.
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once they get there, the message it, is to push it, promote not hold it back. david: take us behind the scenes and how you decided to do the piece. what made you notice that there was a change underway? lananh: it was interesting, i asked david what he was try to do these days and he said he was trying to push the analysts to be bolder, to make that see her calls and not hold back when they had something contrarian. looking at these as a group, what makes them stand out? mentioned david's notes, which are often great fun to read. give us another one. kit has a huge twitter following, is popular, his research reports are popular on the street, so today he is talking about the greek myth of
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icarus, bob dylan, he's got a wide range of references. i don't know if you are into rap , the notorious b.i.g., parallels. david: it begs the question, talking about his twitter following, how much latitude there is foreign investor or analyst to give notes that include rap lyrics or to send out your own notes about it eating at it by staff? lananh: it depends on the following of the analyst and how much of a track record he's got. as you build a track record, you have more freedom to be free, loose, and entertaining in your reports. for bank of america it sounds like they are pushing people to be free to do that. are they still prizing argumentation? are some things falling to the wayside and becoming too flashy, too colorful? lananh: no analyst is going to
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put the reputation on the line for a cheap and easy call. if the call goes wrong, they look terrible. it is more about having a good call and trying to embellish it with interesting comments, a little bit. spice from pop culture, music to getting to interested. then they get into the details. appreciate it. -- appreciate it. appreciate- david: it. thank you. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: you are watching bloomberg. courtney collins. courtney: the story today cleared the way for democrat roy cooper to be declared the winner. nearlyncession comes from election day. the narrow increase. house majority leader kevin mccarthy is imposing tariffs on companies for operations overseas. president-elect donald trump, 35% tax on companies. it would likely need congressional approval. in italy, rival political parties are jockeying for power. the prime mister announced his resignation after voters overwhelmingly rejected a constitutional referendum he push for. many italians saw this as a chance to get rid of ramsey,
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especially after he said he quit if the referendum lost. a former italian finance punisher tells bloomberg not to read too much into the results. to theas not comparable brexit referendum or even to the signaling much more from the political change. >> polls show the anti-establishment movement is neck and neck with the democratic party. five star has called or membership in the european union. here in london, the u.k. government lawyers had a difficult or stay in the supreme court case. whether theresa may could execute the plan of leaving the european union as soon as march third 11 justices repeatedly challenged arguments that he does not need to hold a parliamentary vote before triggering a treaty.
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mightss of a premise or force him to -- moisten -- might force her to release more information about her plan. global news powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts and more than 121 countries. i'm courtney collins, this is bloomberg. as corny mentioned, a times rejected the referendum championed by a wide margin yesterday. he is not worried,'s "of we to francine lacqua earlier today. we areaw today, clearly, , unique central eastern and western european network. we know the new strategy is view, wethe long-term
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plan for the long-term. >> if you were to raise capital, you have said this is one of the options, if there is market terminal, limited amount after shareholders? as i said, we will announce our strategy. quakes you are not worried about market volatility with banks going forward? >> we are not worried about market volatility. strong bank,any, so let's go ahead and wait until december 15, when we announce our new strategy. youcine: how much are looking at the exercise to get an indication of what the market is like?
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>> as i said, i feel the unique credit with a strong they, a lot of potential. a chance to take the medium to long-term, this is what we are doing. to announce a strong strategy. francine: can you talk to me a little bit about the business model? .ou are selling off pioneer how will you make up for the sales? >> we are pleased that we announced this morning where negotiations and we are pleased with the partner. strategyward, our relies on the business model, which is unique.
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a network in central eastern europe. 13, a weekend francine: you have to do deep cost cuts? >> our strategy will show that one side will work on connectivity. on the other side, we will of course transform our network to serve our clients. francine: that is great. i get told a lot i am too impatient. one of your board members was suggesting italy to fund a state bank. is this how they are? >> italy is a good country. what is happened in italy in the
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past, a strong primary surplus. pension reforms, so we need to be positive and look at the country in a positive way. plan for the medium term and not get impacted by short-term events. >> do you rule out a merger with a competitor? >> we are very focused. francine: thank you for the time you give us. a final question on what surprised you the most since you took the job? >> i knew quite well and since i came back to the bank, i can only say on one side, our clients. on the other side are teams. we have a very bright future.
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david: you're looking right now at the presidential palace in .ome he tendered his resignation formally. he was the prime minister and he promised to do that in the speech yesterday. they failed and allied margin and countrywide referendum. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: this is bloomberg markets to let's head to julie hyman for her chart of the day. julie: putting the italian referendum into perspective is
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what his chart does. even as it looks like ramsey is formally offering his resignation. a reaction across asset classes to the italian referendum compared to what we saw last week heading up to the referendum and june 24 when there was u.k. vote to exit the eu the euro is obviously seeing a bigger reaction back june 24 than it saw today or even last week heading up to the italian referendum. we now have a time government on . last week, a reasonable sizable move. the bondsh, a drop in to or today, a climbing yields. perhaps the most notable differential we are seeing is the reaction in the italian stock index. the ftse mib index. june for a fourth, a big drop. . last week, a gain heading into the referendum in today's little changed. this is one measure to give us
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perspective. here is another measure we can look at. for thevolatility here world index. the broadest world measure of the stock here. here again is the brexit vote. we saw a climate volatility in the days after and it came down and the u.s. election, it saw a smaller climb in volatility. today, a very small pickup in that measure of volatility. what is interesting is another goingwe track is money into italian stocks as measured by the etf here. we are seeing decent money going into the etf at least for the month of november. there were outflows for quite a long streak going into 2016. then we saw inflows into the italian etf. showsr measure that perhaps there was not much concern about the referendum
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and now, going into it the outcome doing pretty much as expected, we are not see market reaction as expected. time now for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news now. shares fell along with other italian banks along with the prime minister's decision to resign. they will decide the next few days whether to go ahead with planned capital increase. , looking tore time raise capital and cleanup balance sheets and strengthen profitability. is buying aroup state. the opportunities group is a unit run by david that invest in every thing from oil tankers to brazilian shopping malls. blackstone group's requiring a minority interest. financial terms were not
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discussed. australia has won the contract to partner in the gulf of mexico. bhp secured the contract with a $624 million cash bid for the deal. the mesko state-run oil producer, 21 miles from the border, discovered back in 2012. credit suisse will pay more than $16 million to settle claims that its u.s. unit violated money-laundering guards. the firm aired by relying on brokers reports of suspicious trade and they say they failed to properly implement a surveillance system. credit suisse agreed to resolve the case without admitting or denying the allegations. bloomberg businessweek put out its annual ranking, the best full-time international nba program. list despite the
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uncertainty and fallout. london business school, oxford, and cambridge all came out on top. that is your update. compared tod 37% the same last year. -- processed, sent wealthy homebuyers to the seattle market we are joined now with more on the story. remind us of the back story. >> it was a little bit of a shock one announced. it was announced very quickly and implemented very quickly. it had brokers on the back foot and a lot of sales just put off to see if this would be a major fallout or not. the first couple weeks after, we saw sales fallout. we thought maybe it was a
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short-term. 37% jump down in sales versus last december. this is aimed at cooling the market. it was largely a political discussion. locals frustrated they were not becauseenter the market they were priced so prohibitively. we did see a big jump down. in that sense emily could say it worked. david: let me ask you the role that geographic proximity played. seattle has a very difficult as well. geography is similar. what was the role here? an interesting thing that is litan to in the article today on this. the seattle market has seen a job move at 15% over the last five years. likeng tech at companies
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amazon. or sevenbetween six calls tonight, mainland, china. they generally have about $2 million to spend either in seattle or vancouver. 60% to 70% are looking in either market. both of them would be closer on the west coast to the chinese market. there is probably interplay there. 60% of the seattle and suburbs are going to the buyers. is some interplay and a little bit of if we had roadblocks in vancouver, some of that could be moving to seattle. we see the money going to seattle from vancouver.
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there are cities vying for that as well. toronto among them. >> acidly. the price aseen well. 17%. themselves are up currency,he canadian on sale in terms of the real estate situation. perhaps some money is moving there. executive,chief chinese thinkers looking to have accounts for real estate purchases in vancouver, discussing the attacks come in and in favor of opening the account for real estate in toronto. david: thank you very much, joining us from toronto.
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chairman president and ceo of cbs, joined by david west. i will throw it over to you. >> thank you. chairman,ned by the president, and ceo of cbs. all access. tell is all about that. access are over the top services people can get directly for $5.99 fee. for a couple of years, working is trying toe nfl decide what the digital strategy is. we needed it on all access to make it complete. and they have some of our digital rights as well. roger was very active. we dealt personally a lot of times. to they also have the right put our nfl games on other
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digital circles. >> we can get nfl now. why cable involved? >> a good question. i mean they can watch every episode of the big tank. or ncis or their favorite television show. small bundle or a large bundle. you can get it anyway you want it. ball for $35, we are there. or, you can get cbs alone. david: how they could this get? >> we estimate expected to or millions scriber's by 2012. not a huge business but for
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millennial, the cord cutters, we want to pick and choose what they want. they say i want to get netflix and hulu, all access, that is it. or apple and all access or whatever. people will be programming themselves. there will be homes to pay their monthly bill and have everything. then there will be peach -- people who are more particular and only want to pay for the channels they watch. the world is changing rapidly. who would have seen the advent of hulu and that licks, of all , amazon, thatces we did not hear of five years .go david: distribution over the top. do you need to have ownership
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and some of these distribution platforms? >> i do not think so. .e are relatively small our job is to do great content for cbs, cw, late-night, sports, etc. we do not necessarily need to be in the distribution. at&t went ahead and bought time warner. people knock at your door saying we need you so badly that we want to buy you. >> i am sure some distributors would like to do that right away. that is more difficult to i can imagine plenty of people out there especially when you see
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at&t paying a lot of money or time water, that a company like ours look -- would be very valuable. >> have you had any discussions yet? not say yet. you have discussions with everyone and they all say basically about you. >> you haven't a distributor particularly in wireless, they could favor time warner content over cbs content. >> we were looking at it. it was just enough a few to go. we are taking a look at it to see if it is advantageous or not . we have not weighed in on what we think about it. david: but you are open to the possibility of regulators having rules and regulations. can't dustin and be a news. >> generally speaking, i am not a fan of regulators. we hope there is a loosening of regulations. david: moving on, let's talk
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about directv now. they just launched it. there was a lot of talk. you decided to sit it out. why? said we will join and if you long as the condition we get met appropriately. we have different needs than some of our competitors and own a lot of cable networks. there are financial issues and other issues such as digital. i expect us to make a deal with them and to be a part of it. we demand to be paid fairly. >> it is traditional that they might want ownership of some of your programs. is that an issue on the table? >> not really. it rarely comes up.
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david: interesting. you have a need for more scale and on 10. you love content. do you want more of it? >> you are right that i love content. i love entertainment and news and boards. i love them all and i am a fan of them and i like getting my hands on all of them. we are a pretty complete company. if there are opportunities to get a hold of someone that out with great content that could fit well with us, we would be in looking at it very david: is that why the deal might make sense? i know it is under review here but if the price were right? >> i will not get into particulars. there are bankers and lawyers and even though it has been around a long time, i will have to avoid that one there. david: fair enough. way to include a
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the broadcast stations. valuation affect the of your stations for that matter? >> the great thing is resetting the table. orentered the disputes paying aons, we were lot of money to cable networks and coming in after the party started. now that there is a brand-new party, the broadcast network should be paid more than the cable stations should be. we intend to be on every over-the-top service. we do not think any could exist successfully without pbs, big bang, or stephen colbert or 60 minutes. we are a necessary part of any package.
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david: they are building a new business. exclusive content. if there distributor does not have it, how often does that,? >> stacking rights, the ability to get all of the shows of a certain reason, we only have on all access. if someone made a high offer, it would be available. exclusivity is very tough for us. hundreds of cable and satellite operators. to gives hard for us exclusivity to anyone. david: you have a lot when it comes to policy and politics. industry, asn the you look back at the election, are the things we should be
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re-examining, did we really serve the american people well? >> it is a tough question you are asking. i am proud of what cbs did. i think there was a lot of confusion in the marketplace about fake and real news and biased news and unbiased ms. -- news. everyone is saying how were the polls so wrong and how are the able so sick i, why didn't we see this coming differently than they were very but as they said -- as i said him i'm happy with how we handled our health. weo not think it was much could have done differently. it will be an interesting couple of years in terms of the presidency and the media. we will have to be on our toes.
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david: we have a president-elect to take to twitter at the drop of the hat. we haven't over-the-top president-elect. go straight to the voters all the time. as ao you deal with that news organization whether president will be going directly to voters all the time to >> it is pretty unique. a 20 -- a president who tweets three or four times a day. it is something news organizations have to deal with. a lot of changes will happen to this president will deal with differently than any president in history. david: he has me that explicit. accounts giving the love for how to handle it. moreinal lesson, a lot content is being produced than ever before. what does that do to prices? let's it is an extraordinary number, something like 500 grexit comedies and dramas versus 205 years ago. inors are getting paid more
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certain instances. five years ago, a good writers on a new show no hope lately have three and a couple of rookies and go on their. episodes want to do 10 on netflix as opposed to 22 on cbs. it is all changing. if we do what we're supposed to do, we will still end up winning at the end. david: thank you so much, chairman, president, and ceo of cbs. collect the media conference here in new york city. good afternoon. i am scarlet fu. in just twolose hours. let's check in with julie hyman. julie: it is losing steam here as we head into the afternoon. .9%.asdaq is up
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financials and energy shares leaving gains today. the services report came out this morning measuring the biggest portion of the u.s. economy expanded at the fastest pace since last october. italian referendum is now behind us and the no vote was broadly expected. again we are seeing the three major averages rally. we're also seeing other measures of stocks also rallying. .3%.asdaq 100 is also up smaller caps we see gains as well. we see the s&p small-cap -- a broader index, measure of them. thislittle changed at point. watching, wee are
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have consumer discretionary on luxury in particular. handbag makers, cruise lines -- excuse me. jamie is theres saying the u.s. travel agency was picking demand up in november past the election and past concerns about the zika virus. handbags talk about companies. .hose shares are up 3% today the talks are no longer active and are not expected to resume. michael and caves radar on the rise. we are watching health insurers as we saw arguments
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against the deal between the two companies. departmente justice sued aetna is trying to hold the acquisition of cigna. there are questions about whether the deal can in fact get done. oliver: i am big on the .mall-cap s&p 500 >> i am another person i do not know if there is anyone besides us. election, thethe diversions between the two is massive. shorting right now, people are shorting. a lot of interesting stuff is going on. thank you for the update. let's go next to m a in the newsroom. ; in france, full run for
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president in next year's election. the 54-year-old says he will quit his job on tuesday to focus on his presidential bid. last week, president francois hollande says he will not stand for reelection. stein filed a lawsuit in philadelphia federal order earlier today. asking a judge to order a recount in pennsylvania. started as a recount of the state appeals court looking at arguments tomorrow on a trump team requested to bring it to a halt. outside the trump tower in new york city. >> the commission established that the odds of your vote game miscounted or discounted through either human or machine error is increased massively by about 900% if you are voting in a community of color.
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abstract simply an concern. it is a real concern. >> the wisconsin recount began last week. this year, 11 whites and one black are in that day of discussion. they appear to be deadlocked before they could reach a unanimous verdict. airlines of malaysia flight 370 victims offering cash rewards to anyone who finds the missing jetliner. the plane crashed in march of 2014. a malaysian official investigated, already being found. analyzed.eing the first sitting japanese prime minister to visit pearl harbor only he will visit the hawaiian
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naval base at the end of the month. wednesday marks the 75th anniversary, which pulled the u.s. into world war ii. no one is 24 hours a day out of her more than 26 hundred morealists and analysts in than hundred 20 countries. this is bloomberg, scarlet. scarlet: let's turn to italy where the nation's president just said he met with the prime minister. this is breaking news. thatdent asked to resignation on hold. investors are shrugging off the pending departure. loss, theyat the prove relatively short-lived here there is a euro-dollar rebounding is much as 1.5% versus the dollar. it is now higher by 1.1%. earlier, the former chief about thespoke
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market's interpretation of the italian referendum. >> it seems to me the signal for the results. you was a 6040 outcome. issues.e deep optimistic i am not on the market this morning. >> nowhere near the stress 2012. circumstances where we see a repeat of the sovereign debt prices that we saw in 2012. >> the form it takes, unhappiness. well forewhere as slightly different reasons depending on the country. which means there is a good these you will get discuss. decideernments well may
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to do policies that do not make much sense. in some stage, there is a crisis. the issue is how is it resolved, is it through the restructuring or an exit from the euro? i do not think it should be walled off. seeense is we are likely to this in the coming weeks. itself in an extensional situation? it euy real threat of holding together? >> you have to distinguish from the european union, a fundamentally sound construction. it has to work out how it operates. the euro is a technical construction where the constraint is the common
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currency. this is what made the appeal at least applied to a much smaller group of companies in the future. having we have to separate the two. >> how? it is an important question. .uropean union remains intact how do those things happen? >> i see no logical problem with it. clearly, the exit from the euro even done underground altogether, it will be very >> and messy a process. keep the freedom to move from country to country. the formulation, this you could keep. euro is an of the incredibly complex task.
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>> let's talk about the potential journey. haseurozone debt market been heavily insulated by the european central bank. b the trigger point to leave the year is the next death european exit? seest wonder, how do you inozone exit taking place what is the trigger point for >>t if not the bond market? i think the institutions can be adapted to circumstances. the most likely scenario is in some country, they start me back in the fiscal situation is not of the control. the government does not seem to be ready to do what it takes. the country has to go into a program to be imf program is put in place. maybe it does and maybe it does not work. at some point, a discussion to
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place in greece, coming back ableplay, are we going to -- to be able to get it going? scenario,is is a which country will be affected by? some of the countries , another valueng currency, enormous efforts. the potential is there. this is a scenario. >> fell as the former imf chief economist speaking earlier. we learned once again the italian referendum passes which that he delay his resignation has been accepted. coming up, look on relationship does donald trump have with janet yellen? he had tough comments about her
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along the campaign trail. this is bloomberg. ♪
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justice bloomberg markets. all of her: timeout for a look at the business stories in the news right now. last week's is a store deal to curb production got a little harder after three members influenced output in november. that is according to a bloomberg news survey analyst. russian was boosted by a combined 140,000 barrels per day last month.
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united airlines approved a new contract after rejecting a proposal. the first time since the 2010 proposal with -- -- ler annual race it morgan stanley is changing its conversation plam. person witha knowledge of the move. to determine the percentage of gross revenue will increase about 10%. that is your bloomberg is this flash update. has beendonald trump critical of the federal reserve chair janet yellen but they could be allies in the request to celebrate growth. the economic editor writes about this and joins us now. it all hinges on how trump reshapes the federal reserve. there are a couple of vacancies
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he needs to fill. >> there are two vacancies already that republicans in congress refused to fill. those two plus janet yellen could be leaving early 2018 and jenna fischer in mid-18 -- donald trump will have the opportunity to replace four of the several map -- of the seven members of the federal reserve. it is huge. oliver: trouble on the campaign trail was pretty critical of janet yellen, particularly about that very low. how do you feel about the bubble now that he is in office? andtock prices have gone up spend so it sounds like a big bubble. when you are out of office and when you're coming into office, when in office, you're happy if the fed its rates low. and bechange his tune
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more receptive to low interest rates. scarlet: he is a real estate developer and they like real -- low rates. >> he has a bunch of conservative at pfizer's who believe in the need to stamp out inflation and prevent that from forming. a guide in that direction? will he put in someone like john taylor to be his next chair of the fed? if so, the fed will probably .ecome more hawkish oliver: interest rates will go up if he does everything he plans to do. maneuver by putting people at the fed and make sure
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the growth actions and growth plans are not working against higher rates? point.made an important it is not as though the federal reserve completely controls interest rates. it can pretty much control the federal funds rate. yield curve can affect quantitative easing and so on. on market vigilantes have a big say in this. if they get a with of coming higher inflation say because of excessive stimulus and really simultaneously, and we see unemployment already down, you can see the yield curve decant -- steepening quite a bit and it is not something the that would have an easy time combating. you can check out peter's latest story in bloomberg businessweek and here more every saturday and sunday on bloomberg television.
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oliver: still ahead, the prime is to has decided to delay his resignation. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: italy's's president just said he met with prime minister matteo renzi, where the latter tended his resignation. he asked if he could put on hold pending budget approval by parliament. this is the latest development. thato renzi agreed to do pending budget approval by parliament. as well asay, ian brian examined how the latest with italy affects the eu, especially on or merkel's influence. >> there is no more force other
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than a stronger or tighter immigration for eu as a whole. transatlantic relationship, the most important in underpinning the u.s. led globalization is decisively repudiated by everything in europe over the last year as well as the elections we had three weeks ago. angela merkel, it looks certainly likely that angela merkel will get another term as chancellor in germany. the problem is her ability to leave -- tom: an expert on equity markets, he has been right. will that widen the gap you study and political economics? will it be ever farther apart by the working-class people? reason to believe that populism is losing momentum in europe right now. it is constrained significantly
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in germany. establishment parties had already been taken out of the map. if you asked me what is driving it, it is identity politics and concern about immigrants and refugees. it is not going away. tom: the corporate officer who drives your world, do they care? >> sure they do. one of the most important things is how angela merkel will tighten up the european union and that probably needs to happen. what we need to see is massive structural fundamental reform in europe. there's a better chance to see reform because all we see today is monetary policy. we -- we need to see cut costs. the big oil company, 5.6% dividend. pick for the ultimate you?
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>> no. he and of the day, we need to see cash flow. at the end-end, but of the day, cash flow is being used to grow and we need to grow the cash flow. the increased regulation, it will be difficult for these to continue to grow. scarlet: if you look at france and italy, do you think the citizens of both countries are poor -- pro-euro? havethink in both, you populations that are moderately pro-euro and the eu but the numbers are going down consistently. little to be behind. you see europe as a construct right now is failing. you put it together
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was not just to have a common currency but to have common values. to bring the country together tr was not just, create a national identity and bring together loyalty for governance that was above individual countries. that is obviously breaking down and you saw that with a surprise when in the republican primaries. you see it with ramsey in capable of driving some level of strong leadership. brexit is overwhelmingly the big story here. in part of valve they get is but also how much distraction it will take from every other political story for years now. proactivey to drive , thatgovernance in europe is so far from the agenda today. certaintysay with that 60% is the
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anti-establishment vote? he has -- he is hardly establishment. is it not fusing change? is anti-a leader that got over his skis. not aginally made this referendum on politics and sweeping political reform. they were offering lessons on unpacking congressional reform for 135 euros for an hour. people did know this was something ramsey strongly wanted and his popularity slipped to horrible levels over the course of the past few months. the fact that he says, it is no longer about me but it sort of is about me back-and-forth, disability to get what he wanted, people have found they do not vote for policies. they vote for leaders and vote
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.or what they like that is precisely how he went wrong here. -- 60% with just a 70% vote. that is a ramsey problem. oliver: still ahead, the commodity close. oil and natural gas. while today trying to build on the opec rally. this is bloomberg. ♪ . . generosity is its own form of power.
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you can handle being a mom for half an hour. i'm in all the way. is that understood? i don't know what she's up to, but it's not good. can't the world be my noodles and butter? get your mind out of the gutter. mornings are for coffee and contemplation. that was a really profound observation. you got a mean case of the detox blues.
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don't start a war you know you're going to lose. finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. on xfinity x1. we're opening more xfinity stores closer to you. visit us today and learn how to get the most out of all your services, like xfinity x1. we'll put the power in your hands, so you can see how x1 is changing the way you experience tv with features like voice remote, making it easier and more fun than ever. there's more in store than you imagine. visit an xfinity store today and see for yourself. xfinity, the future of awesome. oliver: from bloomberg world headquarters in midtown manhattan, this is bloomberg markets. i'm all over run it can. let's look at some of the big movers -- soft commodities, big gains for corn.
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corn futures rising the most in seven weeks. oil continues its post opec rally with natural gas futures soaring after few cap -- after forecasters call for snowfall from new york to boston. wti crude finishes the day up quite a bit -- it was quite a bit, now it is about flat. opec will meet with nonmembers to discuss further production cuts. the united states oil fund had its largest weekly outflow since 2010. i want to come inside the bloomberg and look at where open targetwhere opec output has been. the yellow line is the new production target, about 32.5. , thee quite a bit higher big slope up from 14 is what got this conversation on the forefront. we have quite a ways to get back
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down to where we are, which is of everybody agrees. scarlet: compliance is critical. pay 24.6ton will billion dollars for its first partner in a joint venture in the gulf of mexico. the monopoly ended when the government approved to open the energy industry to foreign competitors. for more, we want to turn to the economics director at the auction today. give us some context here. why is this critical for mexico? mexico has reduction of 2 million barrels a day and we have not increased that amount since probably two or three years. when a country needs that income for the 15% of the income for the government, it is critical
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for mexico to get investments either directly with pemex or actions like the ones we see orh companies from china from exxon. i want to bring up a soundbite we have from the ceo of pemex last week. >> we expect investment as soon as 2017. we have worked quite a bit on the field and that is why it is a production project and not an exploration project. the work can be continued relatively quickly. so he is saying they do want to move forward on some of these big plans. how does this development position them to accomplish those goals? jonathan: the first goal is done. the first goal was to put these onee on blocks with
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company, bhp billiton, a company from australia. that is the first goal they have put in two weeks ago when it was important for this company to get that. the second step is to participate in the bid that is happening right now. one one ofpemex those 10 bids that happened in .oordination so what has happened today is this company is getting what it was planning to do, which is to get companies committed to making investments in mexico. the first agreement it signed was this morning, pemex got about 2 billion of investments for the next five years which
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may happen on the border with the u.s. that's what it wanted to do and it happened to be with bhp billiton. it probably wasn't the best company because it probably was expecting a company from the u.s. which has more experience in the gulf of mexico region. .ut bhp has this experience it has one of these contracts, but on the side of the u.s. this is celebrating at point. scarlet: maybe it wasn't the first choice, but the next get something out of it. cnooc, which actually beat out pemex. one to blocks now. it is happening while we talk. the second block was one by
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cnooc, close to the border of the u.s. fourth block of the day, with this, the minister of energy in mexico is getting the goal for the day which was 30% of success. blocks ando of the what we have seen here is china will be even closer, working to the border of the u.s. today. oliver: thank you very much. scarlet: let's get to bloomberg first word news with emma chandra in the newsroom. california, 36 people died in a fire at a late-night dance party. firefighters expect to find more
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bodies in the warehouse known as the ghost ship. 100 people may have been inside the building when the blazer update. it is the deadliest fire in the u.s. in more than a decade. in north carolina, governor pat mccoury has lost his bid for reelection. he conceded today, clearing away -- clearing the way ford democrat roy cooper. the concession comes nearly four weeks after election day and after appeals dried up and post election recounts. the italian president has asked the premier to put his resignation on hold pending budget approval by parliament. he's quitting after voters overwhelmingly rejected a referendum to push through constitutional reform. polls show the euro five-star movement would gain power. in london, small groups of protesters held demonstrations
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outside the supreme court. inside, judges were hearing arguments over whether the government has the right to leave the european union without parliamentary approval. prime minister theresa may plans to trigger article 50 by the end of march. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm emma chandra. this is bloomberg. scarlet: we have been at the ubs media conference all day discussing the outlook for the industry along with mergers and acquisitions. you thei was on with day after the deal, i put the odds at 70%. you would probably have a more favorable fcc but trump has stated he would probably block the deal. i think the department of justice will give it a fair look. i think it's a little better than 70%. >> what does that deal indicate
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about the relationship of content on one hand and distribution on the other? >> the interplay has been in media for a long time. you saw comcast make a destroyed or for content and this is a similar template. you make your pipes more valuable by bringing content to it. i'm not sure i totally buy it, but we are in a new world with mobile and companies may be able to distinguish themselves from a regulatory point by having exclusive content. >> we saw this with nbc and comcast. looking back on that deal, did they enhance the value of the assets? >> this would indicate that they did. one of the things about that deal is they bought at the cycle, it was under managed at the time and they improved mbc. -- they improved nbc.
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tethered, cable world. we are now in a wireless world. that is what really drove at&t. what does that say about where we are going? >> at&t a week ago launched direct tv now, which is there over the top entry. content companies will have to adapt. those that don't have wireless assets will think about how they play in the new world. would cause them to think about increasing their .nvestment in wireless >> what does that say about t-mobile and sprint? sprinthave t-mobile and as assets. i would not rule out verizon. and it would not be out of the realm of possibility for
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comcast. yet dish, but with no infrastructure just yet. when the spectrum auction ends, i think you will see a lot of it. >> talk about the new trump administration and what it means for dealmaking in the media space. is there going to be more consolidation and media deals? >> i think we will have a more in they fcc then we have last eight years, probably into the bush administration. no doubt somebody is going to try. that was the cio of dam cap. next hour, david will speak with the new york times ceo, mark thompson. you don't want to miss that. oliver: coming up, we will look at lululemon which reports earnings. september shares cratered after the forecast fell. about 9% year to date.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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oliver: this is bloomberg markets. i'm oliver renick. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. now it's time for the boom -- the bloomberg business flash. liberty mutual is lying iron chair. the move will allow the insurance company to expand in the specialty commercial market in bermuda. liberty mutual will pay $3 billion. ford plans to issue $2 billion in debt as the carmaker boosts spending on self driving cars and electric vehicles. according to a regulatory filing, they are taking on an
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unspecified amount of debt in 10 and 30 year notes. in a bid to fight fraud, 70's is buying an art forensics firm after a number of art forgeries, including a painting that sold for $10 million in 2011. in march, the auction house declared the painting was a fake and issued a refund. that is your business flash update. oliver: president-elect donald trump met in new york today with al gore to discuss an issue he has long scoffed at, global warming. here's how gore categorized the meeting. of the time was with president-elect donald trump. i found it an extremely interesting conversation. and to be continued. i'm just going to leave it at that. thank you. oliver: for the latest on cabinet picks, we are joined by ben brody, are bloomberg politics reporter from d.c. highly unlikely it seems trump
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would report al gore to anything. does this mean everyone going to trump towers not necessarily a candidate? : i do think he's trying to take the temperature of a variety of leaders in different fields. i'm not sure why he would bring in some elect former vice president that when he spoke, he did suggest he might be open to staying in a climate accords, and that would be something gore would be pushing. it was not in that part of the tape, but gore said he met with yvonne cut trump who is an advisor to the transition but supposedly, they say, won't be going into the white house and presumably could not go into the white house in a formal capacity, so it is unclear how she might be pushing for some of those climate things. a lot of uncertainties when it comes to how they trump
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children will function in any executive capacity. looking ahead to secretary of state, it seemed as though donald trump had narrowed the field to general the traitorous and mitt romney. it looks like he is expanding the pool again. we are hearing about former utah governor, jon huntsman, who is a rival of mitt romney, so it is unclear if he is actually under consideration. or if it is just a continuing not that romney crusade. it is not clear but it is clear that trump's inner circle just have not found exactly what they are looking for and there is clear tension over romney and david petraeus. because of his conviction, a lot of people are uncomfortable that he mishandled classified information. scarlet: david petraeus was on all of the sunday morning talk shows trying to showcase how he
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could bounce back from questions about his emailed situation. which trump harped on at length with clinton. but it points to all the people coming and going. one person that hasn't been up somewhere is mr. carson, a former presidential candidate that then went to support. what do we know about how he is going to function heading up hud ? is there any experience indicating he's capable of doing so or a good pick, rather? doesn't seem to really have the relevant experience. there are cabinet positions that are handed out to loyal than we have talked about this before. loyalty seems to be one of these key criteria the trump team is latching onto. trump really went after each other when they were
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both in the race. they said some nasty things about each other that once carson dropped out, he was an important liaison to different parts of the country. what trump and the transition , his openness of heart and willingness to help people, he did come from pretty meager circumstances to the top of his profession, but it is not clear that he knows anything or has worked in housing policy really. want to go back to a longer trump and the trump children. it comes back to that idea of donald trump saying he would end conflicts of interest. is there a sense or greater understanding of how he might do that? someone say the political landscape has changed so much that americans don't care about these conflicts of interest. he campaigned on this idea that he was successful in business.
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clear thatot american voters care about this, clear to me more people voted for hillary clinton then donald trump at the end of the day. i also think of a kratz will make an issue of it. if they retake the house, think they will pull hearings that i think they will take him to court over freedom of information and i think they will be waging a media campaign and really call them out to clarify some of these things. i don't think it's clear despite with the president-elect said out how he would manage these conflicts and it is not clear he has a plan that would really take care of it. oliver: great stuff. thank you so much. , we are coming up trading lululemon. the athletic wear company is reporting on wednesday. how to play those shares before the results. this is bloomberg. ♪
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oliver: this scarlet: is bloomberg markets. i'm oliver run it. i'm scarlet fu. time for options insight with julie hyman. julie: joining me today is jim from mtm holdings and going into a low volatility time. in the wake of the italian referendum, volatility has remained suppressed and a very benign market reaction. has that -- does that happen with the fed next week since the outcome is widely expected? jim: we think it does. we thought interest-rate volatility had to increase to embed the risk of the fed event on the 14th and the likely rate hike. volatility is elevated and we think it is largely priced in.
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other events have been mowed down by financial markets. the presidential election, the italian referendum, the austrian we have low view is and stable equity volatility into a seasonally strong time over several weeks to the beginning of next year. we would expect the outcome of that fomc meeting is steamrolling that as well. is there a way to make money if that's the case? jim: we think there is. for threshold measures, if you ,onsider the equity hedge index there are returns out there that almost need to be captured, but we are talking about owning options. oversold, itoks
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performs well. in parallele calls with that long stock and have hat convex itty -- that convexity. julie: lululemon is the trade you are looking at today. delayed earnings schedule, so it is coming out two days from now. research recently talking about an uptake -- an uptick in discounting which is unusual. what are you looking for out of this? view,ust to frame our very positive long-term. we have an ad -- we have a group that does huge surveys and the have wears at a new peak. a $90 price target.
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it looks like spending in the third quarter was ok. that is probably priced in. the fourth quarter probably started slow so we see near-term risk and we want to talk about hedging this earnings event with longer-term, they remain owned. what we are showing people as you go out to the december 30 at duration and sell a 63 strike call. turn around and buy 55-50 foot spread. if it is a positive outcome, you are selling long stock, up about 10%. you are participating in that 10% of upside and in return, you are hedge dan -- hedged down 4% down to about 12%. in the next several weeks, with
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the event after the close on wednesday, participate to the return for less than 1% of the underlying coming of a nice, hedging place. julie: we will see what the numbers and bring on wednesday. sending a back to be -- to two big lululemon fans. oliver: i'm a fan of owning convexity. the president-elect has called the company a failing business, but can the gray lady cash in on this election? this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: it is 3 p.m. in new york and 12:00 p.m. p.m. in san francisco. i'm scarlet fu. oliver: i'm all of a run it. welcome to bloomberg markets. renick.liver
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welcome to bloomberg markets. bloomberg world headquarters in new york. there covering stories in a philadelphia, rome, vienna and india. the dow jones is at a record high right now. how long before we see 20,000? one of the super bowl's out there will talk to us. donald trumpct calls the "new york times" a failing business. ceo mark thompson joins us to set the record straight. and our the markets to longer swayed by political volatility? we will look at why investors are taking it all in stride. close one hour from the of trading. with the check on the markets with julie. julie: it is particularly green it is particularly green for the nasdaq because the nasdaq did poor last week. it's bouncing back the most this week.
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the dow and s&p are hanging onto gains as well. the outcome in italy was perhaps priced in. these service report came out better than estimated. if you look at the individual stocks, amazon is the best contributor on the s&p 500 today. the company is experimenting with an actual bricks and mortar grocery store. checkedd not actually out. there would be sensors for what you put in your cart and there would be no lines or checkouts and it would just be charged to your amazon account. looks like investors are intrigued by that idea. bank of america and jpmorgan are gaining along with bond yields. if you look at how this translates into groups, financials are one of the best performing groups and consumer
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discretionary doing quite well. health care is the biggest laggard, down about .3%. ,ne of the interesting chart his so-called chart of the day chris kimbley of charting solutions in this looks 500.e ratio of the s&p he says it is not something a lot of folks track that is one way of looking at stocks to bonds and he is looking at a level similar to where it was nine years ago for the peak in stocks. we are near that level and a potential warning sign in his view for stocks. thented to check outside world of stocks on the euro, which is up 1%. interesting action on that
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referendum. my favorite market quote of the a story that cited one investor saying when he saw the u.k. vote to exit the eu, it was a three-day slump and a rebound. , it was a three minute slump and then a rebound. the time horizon and reaction to these risk events has dramatically shortened. the charmhird time is with these put goal risks. let's get a check on bloomberg first word news. -- emma: the 54-year-old says he would quit his job tuesday to focus on his presidential bid.
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francois whole, suffering from historically low ratings said he would not run for reelection. former green party presidential candidate jill stein filed a lawsuit in a philadelphia court today asking a judge to order a recount in pennsylvania. michigan had started its presidential recount but the appeals court will hear arguments tomorrow on a trump team request to ring it to a halt. >> the u.s. civil rights commission established that the odds of your vote being miscounted or discounted through either human error or machine error is increased massively by in aif you are voting community of color. this is not an ad concern. this is a real concern. emma: sepp blatter says he lost
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his bid for reinstatement. that she was barred in a 2011 and said he would accept the decision. and shinzo abe will become the first sitting japanese prime minister to visit roll harbor. he will visit the hawaiian naval base with president obama at the end of the month. wednesday marks the 75th anniversary of japan's attack on pearl harbor which pulled the u.s. into world war ii. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm emma chandra. this is bloomberg. scarlet: let's get back to the financial markets and where we are headed next. jeremy siegel says it is possible the dow jones industrial average could top 20,000 this year. currently, it is at a record high.
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great to see you again. you had predicted a trump victory would cause uncertainty in the short run, but it turns to sixwas compressed hours. can you make the case the long-term goal run has been pulled forward and cannot be sustained past the new year? we are not done with this goal run from the trump victory. his appearance embracing the agenda, the republican agenda, yes, he's put pressure on some firms. he has made some threats in an but basically has not put forward and is very anti-trade, his choice for for the secretary and
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treasury are certainly globalist and very much people in the mainstream. i think this has comforted the markets and a look toward the republican agenda and see lower taxes. corporate taxes could boost s&p earnings by 10%. that is a 10% move. have less regulation, which i think has been a deterrent toward economic growth and that is positive. if we get some economic growth from infrastructure, that would be icing on the cake. i don't think the movement in the stock is over yet. we have a banner on right now that says siegel says the dow at 20,000. a year from -- a year ago, that would have been a big call. i look at the bloomberg projections of $130 a share next
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year, if that kind of growth -- kind -- kind of growth happens, are you in danger of becoming a bear? jeremy: i don't think we need 130. that's higher than we need. interest rates are going up at they are still extra ordinary low from a historical standard. i think we will see the 10 year around 3%, but remember back in the 60's, it was 4.5% or 5%. 130 p/e ratio, that's about where you would put that. that's very reasonable in a world where we are not going to be above 3% on treasury and rising interest rates threaten capital losses on all fixed income portfolios. my feeling is we are not anywhere near bubble territory, certainly the way we were in 1999 and 2000. close to p/e ratios.
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i heard a news story looking a very06, but there's important difference and that was financial institutions had all of these terrible mortgage onurities that they held margin, so to speak. today, we have $2 trillion of excess reserves in the banking system. that is an iron plate that is almost impossible to break. have the fragility of the financial system. we have much lower rates than we had in 2006 and that is what drives the bull market forward. scarlet: you have laid out the narrative for why stocks can continue rallying. what market narrative doesn't make sense given the data we've seen on the u.s. economy?
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jeremy: in the sense of what might scare me going forward? hope forare there any general optimism that doesn't make sense or square for you? jeremy: i think it is the tax cut, which i think is 10%. less regulation. if we get economic growth, that is one point over. have the citibank economic surprise indicator, which is how has the data been going over the last week? it's at the highest level since july which means we are getting surprises on the upside. this quarters gdp does not look like it is going to be great. consumer sentiment is breaking in new highs. rally is partially
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justified and could move further. scarlet: he's not suspicious a very much right now. oliver: you mentioned that gdp, but there's a lot of expectations on what trump can do to gdp. can we chug along at 2% and have stocks go higher next year? just three,e get to get to 3.5 or four, that is a gain. combine that with the tax cut, there will be a corporate tax cut and it boosts earnings 10% or more. let's hope for less regulation and as long -- what scares me is is it going to fear off into a protectionist mode? that's not good and i'm the first to admit that. i don't see that happening but the taxes, less regulation and 2.5% to 3% isof
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enough to push this forward. scarlet: thank you so much for joining us. oliver: coming up, we will take you back to the ubs media conference where our guest is mark thompson, the chief executive officer of the "new york times co. -- "new york times." ♪
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oliver: the "new york times" covers the headlines but it has been in the headlines during this election season, drawing angry threats of lawsuits from donald trump, who visited the paper last month for meetings with officials, including ceo mark thompson whose standing by at the ubs lowball conference
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with bloomberg's david weston. david: we are joined by mark thompson from the new york times. let's talk about this election in this specific sense. a lot of people benefited in the aftermath -- the equity markets way up and the dollar is stronger. how did the "new york times" do? are 20% up since election day. the biggest thing by far as we have seen a really astonishing surge in subscriptions, instantly digital subscriptions, but on the print front as well. people's willingness to pay for the kind of journalism we do which we think of as being accurate, thoughtful and livered without fear or favor. that would appear there is a public appetite for that. david: can you quantify that a bit? mark: we have seen weeks where we've seen 10 times as many net
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subscribers as previous years. we guided the market to 100,000 net use subscribers. it would have been more than twice as many as last year. we are nowhere near the end of the quarter, so a big surge. david: this comes in the midst of an overall trend where you have been adding digital subscribers. mark: and the rate is accelerating. often with a subscription model, there's a short growth spurt followed by a plateau. we've seen a rather attractive curve that has been accelerating for two years now. knowing what we know and opportunityut our around the world as we can grow substantially further. i don't think it's unreasonable
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to imagine 10 million digital subscribers. david: are you apply an average metric per subscriber? and as well? mark: no, it's not. we look at the data closely. ,ur desire to grow a big base ultimately what i'm interested in is the total revenue. , we may well start applying pricing and so forth. tothat moment, we want encourage people to know and love the "new york times." we want to focus on getting as many people into the tent as we can. david: the digital stories a good story. at the print side, advertising has been declining. do you see that rate of decline maintaining what is, getting worse or getting better? been chief executive
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for four years and i've learned trying to predict what the needle is going to show, it's going to be worse than the needles on election night. it's all over the place in terms .f what is going on our international newspaper, q3 last year, -30%. q3 this year, -5%. so it's hard to predict. the thing to say about print is onceprint advertising was 80% of the revenue. in our most recent quarter this year, it was 22%. although having -18% or -19% is , it's about minus 22%. it is slowly uncaring from print advertising. aring.e
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soon, i think digital advertising will overtake print advertising. critical to our print business. our print does this would be contribution margin positive and generate cash for the company simply on its subscription business even if there was no advertising at all. stable printy subscription business and a rapidly growing digital business. there'sould you say substantial pressure on newspapers overall? as you take that pressure and put it together, is that a business model that sustains or grows or declines? mark: i believe we can grow it. i accept we have a billion dollar mature print business and a half billion dollar and rapidly growing digital business. digitalarly, if the
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subscription business increases, over time, the growth overwhelms the losses on the print side and you end up with a company that is growing strongly. david: as you look at that, does it mean the new york times can remain on its own, independent? it got rid of operations and trimmed down. do you need to have a strategic partner? mark: no. , nowe in the news business and above all when people worry so much about the credibility and reliability of news. we are an to say independent news writer, not part of some conglomerate. if you have a problem with our journalism, you can write to the people who represent the owners of the company.
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the accountability is super clear and we can be judged transparently on our merits. i think that's a great civic value. but we can see with the subduction surge, i think it's a good commercial value. if you want some news feed with news from goodness knows where, they like the idea of really clear provenance. this was written by this person, edited by this person, and i know where it is coming from. david: there are digital purveyors of information growing dramatically. amazon and facebook really dominate in the digital space. you had a deal with facebook in the past. does that continue? we are doing deals around facebook live and facebook is a valuable distribution partner. the difference between the "new , i'mtimes" and facebook is
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in next editor and ceo, but we are editors and we take responsibility for editing. facebook and other platforms do themselves as having extensive responsibility in the matter. the difference between a news provider like the "new york times" and all of the companies you mentioned is we stand for something and we will stand and be judged by our editorial abilities and the decisions we make. that is something which none of the digital platforms want to do. david: no one is going to confuse the "new york times" for facebook. but they have such in or miss reach. is it a material part of your digital revenues from facebook? mark: facebook is a valuable way of sending journalism and
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attracting new users. i think it is a healthy partnership and the other great thing is facebook is one of the companies that has helped with innovation. timessupport for the doing facebook live has helped us. we have another deal with samsung and we are doing a 360 with the our film every day of the year -- with vr film supported with samsung technology. you can really feel the ,nnovation and we would now we've done more with virtual reality than any other publisher, including our new digital players like buzzfeed. comesf that innovation from these deep relationships with these platforms. david: you have been a journalist your entire career and have run the bbc. i thing it's fair to say most american people feel they were
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particularly well served by the news media overall. can take things we away from that and reflect upon and things we can do to change and do a better job in covering elections? answer to can journalism get better is always yes. we are seeing a phenomenon across the western world in very different setups, in the u.k. where the bbc is much more traditional and arguably more conventional and highbrow news media than broadcast and radio. very similar anxieties about the way the brexit debate happened. as you know, i've written a book
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about it. -- when they use that forms like twitter, they cut corners to exaggerate and hope they can get away with it because they are not going to be fact checked and scrutinized. much more than fake news, the social media platforms in particular, the whole digital world shortening time for journalists gives the wrong incentives to politicians. it feels new and troubling. there are plenty of us on both sides of the atlantic to think about in terms of not just making journalism sustainable economically but more valuable. thank you to david westin with "new york times" ceo
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mark thompson. scarlet: let's get a track on how the markets are faring with 30 minutes to go before the close. the s&p up by 12 points in the dow adding 42 points. nasdaq the big winner, but this was on the heels of the nasdaq underperforming. small caps again just killing it with a rustle up. the dollar down as well on commodity weakness with crude down 1%. we are following the financial markets and watching for a new record on the dow. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ for u.s. vice president al gore at trump tower in new york city today. he met with president-elect donald trump in a lengthy and very active session. >> the bulk of the time was with
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donald trump. i found it extremely interesting. to be continued. i would just leave it at that. thank you. with earlier sat down ibaka trump reportedly to discuss climate change. in 2007, he shared a nobel peace prize for his work on the subject. newark city mayor bill de blasio 's tongue the u.s. government to reimburse the city for the cost of protecting donald trump. he wants up to $35 million to help pay for security in and around trump tower. police have a full-time presence outside the building where the lives and has met with federal cabinet choices since his election. imposingarthy says tariffs on companies that move overseas could result in a trade war. donald trump says he will impose a 35% tax on


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