tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg December 12, 2016 10:00am-11:01am EST
julie: we take you from new york to london to milan in the next hour. plus, cover stories out of saudi arabia and russia. behind's is surging to level since july 2015. saudi arabia signals it will cut out that more than previously thought. mark: donald trump targets lockheed martin, saying that the u.s. government is overpaying for the f-35's and costs are out of control. how much could this impact lockheed martin stocks? julie: and we are live in italy as the prime minister is replaced. first on the agenda is fixing the nation's troubled banks. 30 minutes now into the trading day in the u.s.. abigail doolittle has the latest. is it a record again?
abigail: a record once again. enough to put both at record highs. the week is young. it is worth noting that the dow is on pace for its sixth weekly gain. it'll be interesting to see whether the record highs continue. the nasdaq is trading lower, confirmation between the s&p 500 with the risk on scene that we are seeing in oil. the highest since july 2017. we have a two day chart of oil which shows massive gains. more than 5%. they did pledge to cut production more than previously agreed and non-opec members are saying they also are going to cut production. some are talking about this as doing whatever it takes for oil. but oppenheimer is saying that
$60 a barrel is the new normal for oil. starks are rising today. look at the oil and gas index up by 2.5 percent. the stoxx 600 is down by a quarter of 1%. biggest weeklyhe gain. a great status. companies reached overbought levels last week. energyhest level -- stocks are overbought for the first time since april 2015. that is the best performing industry group today following the big discussion and steel that took place in vienna over the weekend. other stories to tell you about. this company has record intraday highs. this is a french company gaining to a record after agreeing to buy pioneer global.
3.5 billion euros in cash is the price. this will accelerate growth. to pay for the purchase. purchase will give them more than $1.3 trillion under management. making the world's eighth biggest asset management. on friday.bout this shares lower. they went up on friday after 21st century fox table to preliminary offer of 10.75. we closed up on friday and we are down a little bit today. prices aresee, share below the 10 pound 75 preliminary offer price, which that you some indication the deal won't be completed. people say the structure of the
deal is being discussed right now. the german 10 on year yield. it is creeping higher. 40 basis points. it wasn't long ago when we were as low as 18 basis points negative. have we seen the back end of negative german yields? according to economists, we have. there were no calls in the monthly poll below zero in the forecast to rise through 2018. yields have been moving higher ending in 2017 at .60%. today, the increase is predicted to be gradual so say economists with a medium forecast of 1% on of 2018.ar by the end but that is quite a bit pause. we have seen the end of german yields. since january.
julie? julie: back to the big story on oil. saudi arabia has signaled it is ready to cut oil production. .his coming after russia novak said political was critical in getting that deal through. >> an important role has was crg that deal through. been played by the ministers. i think the key role should be given to leadership. there he supported that the deal. as it goes forward and understanding the importance of the deal being done. supporthis political which you talked about, this actually significantly helps to build a trustful relationship with our partners from opec and
non-opec countries, especially with saudi arabia. these non-opec cuts genuine? or are they natural declines? >> i have to say that the situation is different as you go country by country. but i was very pleasantly surprised to see the support with russia to be dissipate. i would have to say that most countries have chosen and they joined not because anyone force them to reduce production. most of these countries, they will be taken active measures. >> what about the remainder? who will make up to get to the 600,000 day target? >> it is important to understand that the thousand barrels a day was not the only possible result for us.
there will be countries that are possibly join the arrangements. and i think they would most likely be able to achieve an overproduction that is higher than the 560 which we spoke about. thing is thaty the agreement is open. there may be others who would join in. what is important is that the doors are open. and that a decision has a decision has been made. and now have a framework to join. >> the saudi oil minister says he is willing to cut even more. maybe below 10 million barrels a day. would russia cut more than 300,000? >> at this point, we have signed the deal for six months. that is the first stage. this extends the duration of the agreement.
but we will be monitoring it closely the effect on the market with countries and we will make a decision where other agreements are necessary for the completion. >> when does russia begin their curving? >> i think that is the first cut. the first stage of the cut. he will be held tuesday in january. theuld like to say companies are quite well aware of what they have to do. by this is a voluntary step which the companies are taking, they understand the benefits of this deal. and they understand that the deal is in place and they have agreed to it. it will take place starting in january. so as we speak now, they are taking measures. mark: that was the russian energy minister speaking
exclusively to bloomberg. let's bring in a correspondent here from bloomberg. the reference in 2012, when he said he would do whatever it takes? isn't porton perspective. -- it is an important perspective. almost 600,000 barrels a day. we are not exciting the saudi's to announce anything new. and then going into be press -- he specifically mentioned the 10 million barrels a day that was previously redlined when they were not willing to drop below their position. the market conditions are prepared to go below.
so yes, it really sounds very much like what mario draghi said in 2012 when he said, whatever it takes. and one of the quotes was exactly that. it is a what ever it takes. mark: it is a phenomenon isn't it? >> yes. we don't know whether the deal will work or not. remember, any trade under the age of 40 years old has not traded like this. because these countries go together. so this is a new situation for many oil traders. julie: i'm curious also about the role of the u.s. in this. because the oil ministers have said they don't think that they will see a meaningful uptick in production in the united states from shale. goldman sachs that they are wrong to discount that. what are you hearing? and what is your analysis?
the world's oil production represented, but we didn't have china or norway or canada. and there was no one talking for the u.s. shale producers. it is an indication to hedge the oil. isis have gone up. it is another opportunity. they will increase production. expecting is are the increase. and that is a big bet. industry, it will work in saudi arabia. -- theyhey miscalculate ignore vast volumes of oil with
shale producers in texas and oklahoma and other parts of the united states, then they will be in trouble. aboutlso want to ask you big energy out of the u.s. oforted likely appointment the secretary of state here, i'm trying to understand how this could change exxon and the energy industry by extension. >> it was a very busy weekend. we have opec and non-opec deals. i would put it this way. if you think of the oil industry , they were coming into double on the back of the climate change agreement in paris for the oil industry was put on the back loop. it was the lowest price and 10 years.
but certainly, it was not a warm welcome. you see global oil industries today. approaching $60 oil. you have donald trump heading into the white house. and you have the potential for the industry with the ceo of exxon mobil becoming a senior officer in the united states. laid this is clearly a massive turnaround. mark: a historic weekend. good to see you. julie: still ahead, we will talk about the fed meeting. but first, mitch mcconnell is holding a news conference because he says an investigation cannot be a partisan issue. you can watch the news conference on the bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: live from london and new york. i am mark barton. julie: i am julie hyman, this is "bloomberg daybreak." discussing rates since the first time with the u.s. election. we will little doubt, be closely watching to see how they view the impact of a donald trump presidency. joining us now is thomas costerg . one of the top-rated forecasters on the u.s. economy. thank you for coming in. obviously, not a lot of suspense here about the fed meeting this week in terms of what they are going to do. but could there be any surprises? not just at the meeting but what they could indicate going forward? are you bracing yourself or
anything unexpected? thomas: the fed is a happy camper right now. now, they will deliver what is expected. however, there are a few risks when you think about the donald trump spending plan and the other is whether it will move more than two rate hikes next year. i think that is what we will get from wednesday. gives typically, the said a data dependent caveat. is it most likely that in terms of the trunk fiscal spending plan, of which we don't have many details, that they will say -- take a wait and see approach? thomas: i think you are probably right. i think they probably want to say away from the limelight. so they will probably take a backseat and wait for more details on the spending plan. i think they are where it's very difficult to have a spending plan and it will take a lot of
time. some are more bullish. and some are more optimistic. i think that is why they will not change their economic forecast too much. so for 2017 and 2018 -- why is that? that the key thing is business cycle is now showing signs of fragility in the housing market. it is leveling up a bit. and you are also seeing car difficult to'd is see where growth will come from next year. it could still happen but it will take time so some of the thecuts could boost into 2018-2019. and deals will continue to
escalate. call on the fed funds rate is fascinating. four in 2018. is that links to the speed change coming to the fed in 2018 when donald trump can start changing some of the governors? thomas: i think people underestimate how the fed may change. will be two vacancies. janet yellen may step down as chair away from the board. fed may turn more hawkish. and that means more rate hikes. and don't forget about the qe program. that will also shrink faster than what many people expect. by the way, what to say and what you get, the fed may be very different in 2018. julie: a good reminder. we also have talked about opec
and non-opec this morning. how is oil feeding into your inflation picture? in what is already a rising inflation environment? thomas: it is currently 1.7%. chosen this low measure. and i think they will continue to look at core inflation. think it could start to slow. i think oil prices are key risk. and that is something to think of. that could be something to watch. be a reactionld function. julie: thank you so much. that was thomas costerg. on wednesday, be sure to watch our special coverage on the fed
julie: lockheed martin shares are falling today after donald trump tweeted that the f-35 program is out of control. onalso mentioned the program fox news sunday. >> i don't need a $4.2 billion airplane to fly around. especially when it is totally out of control because they have lost control of it. things -- if you look at the f-35 program, with the money
and the hundreds of billions of dollars, it is out of control. julie: for more, we are joined by rob levinsohn. first of all, give us some background. what does the f-35 do? what role does it play in the military and is it as out of control cost wise? rob: it is mainly designed as a fighter aircraft and it will replace the marine corps carriers and their some talks of it replacing the a 10 as well. it was originally estimated to cost the entire by for the marine corps up to 2100 aircraft. it was originally estimated at $200 billion but now it is estimated to be sure -- to be shy of $400 billion.
a very expensive program. julie: is there a way to cut costs? it if itd replace wasn't the f-35 rob: i think cutting the program is hard to do. it isn't just the united states. a lot of other countries are purchasing them. ash carter is in israel today where they will take delivery on of the 50 aircraft that they are buying. in recent years, a lot of the costs have gotten under control and stabilized. there are still performance issues with the aircraft with testing issues. intoould extend out aircraft per year but it might actually drive up the unit cost per aircraft and spread out the annual cost. julie: we thought aerospace stocks surge. there seems to be this assumption that donald trump
would be favorable to the dissent industry. fundamentally change it? or is this specific? was the aerospace industry excited because he had promised significant increases in the budget but i am wondering now if he isn't just laying the groundwork to be tougher on them. he has big promises he has to pay for with the upper structure programs and tax cuts and spending on homeland security. he may be trying to give the pentagon a message that he is going to be tough on them. julie: thank you so much. up next, we are talking silver. this is bloomberg. ♪ ways wins.
let's check on our first word news. president-elect donald trump possibly choice for secretary of state may have trouble winning confirmation because of his ties to russia. senators from both parties are balking at the fact that he may nominate rex tillerson, who has ties to vladimir putin. kellyanne conway spoke earlier on nbc. >> we want someone who is already accustomed to the negotiations. because he is an oilman he has been in yemen, china, russia. it's not like vladimir putin and racks are intimate friends. >> florida senator marco rubio tweeted that being a friend of attribute usen hoping for from the secretary of state. president-elect donald trump is once again casting doubts on the -- cia.ing that the agency said that russia tried to interfere in the
election but trump tweeted that it was hard to determine who was doing the hacking. they are dismissing reports that russian hackers attacked males linked to the rnc. a federal judge's record -- rejecting a request to recount paper ballots. was looking to recount votes in michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin. a federal judge halted the michigan recount. the wisconsin recount is expected to conclude today. all three states were won narrowly by trump over clinton. the u.s. supreme court has rejected a bid by hank greenberg to dismiss a fraud lawsuit. they refused to hear claims by the former aig chair and former aig cfo howard smith that federal securities law bars the case from going forward. smith areand disputing charges by the state of new york that they use fake transactions to hide aig problems. global news, 24 hours per day, powered by 2600 journalists and
countries. 120 this is bloomberg. julie? julie: let's go to abigail doolittle. we've got a few significant movers? abigail: indeed, we do. trading lower on the the proposed merger plan falling apart. paul sweeney told our team just moments ago that he thinks there are two factors behind this. first, price and control. he also said, secondly, the new ceo presented at the media conference last week and was very bullish on the company, so perhaps he wants a chance to turn viacom around. it is a big job there, down 60% from the record peak. speaking of turnarounds, chipotle mexican grill, shares are today higher on the news that the coke ceo is leading, putting the founder insult control. this stock is down about 50% from its record peak on the
breakout of the e. coli issue and it appears he has a big job ahead of him. 2206,into the bloomberg, we are going to see in blue revenues absolutely just dropping. big decline in revenue growth. it looks like, julie, that the team is going to have to turn this one around by bringing revenue backup and perhaps the stock will follow. we will see if he can. julie coleman avenue a gale, thanks so much. i cachet of documents from deutsche bank include what some investors call a smoking gun, proving that other banks were involved in a price rigging scheme. a ubs trader wrote -- going lower -- the deutsche bank responder responded -- oh dear, my boss just purchased some. work that one.to told you i would bend it lower for you. joining you on more but these transcript could mean, christian
.erthelsen we already knew that this was happening to some degree, but this gives us more granularity, more detail. christian: this is the first time you have seen the evidence in the case in a public showing. thesche bank settled out of case regarding what was relevant, so what you are seeing now are all of these chat room transcripts, emails, audiotapes. banks about 350,000 documents and 7500 recordings where you have traders discussing their positions to each other, agreeing to quote the same spreads on trades to clients, trading against their clients, all of those sort of things. julie: at the time, deutsche bank was the only bank to do a .ettlement to agree to that
who else could now be implicated? >> a number of banks were sued in the initial case. deutsche bank was the only want to settle out of it. as a result of these documents being made public there is evidence that there are new banks in the record that could them being result in added. one of them was ubs, which was dismissed out of the case in october. but the plaintiffs are now heading back. mark: who is the hammer? >> i wish i knew. we might find out eventually. that's the trader who used some of the most colorful language in these chats with the main deutsche bank trader whose chats were produced. >> there is also a glimpse therebetween that deutsche bank trader and one that started at another bank? christian: that's right, it's about a five-year relationship. at least that's what's disclosed .he records
they continued sort of chatting in this manner with the deutsche bank trader as he moved first to hsbc and then standard charter after that. >> other consequences for the individuals involved? do we know, for example, if they still have their jobs? >> we don't have the identities confirmed on a lot of the people yet. it all the tens how their employment agreements are with the banks. they have to get their own counsel. it really all depends on how the case works out. it's a $30ark: billion per year market, the -- tradingting market, christian. why has it long been suspected of being rigged? christian: christian: -- inistian: suspicions started the run-up to the financial
crisis, 2000 eight. silver is often called the poor man's gold, because the price entry point is much lower. you get a lot of retail investors using it as a defensive mechanism the same way bigger investors would use it. startedthe price really coming off because of the financial crisis and people expecting it to go up. that is when you first started getting allegations of them manipulation. given the small size of the market and the volatile price moves, there have been multiple investigations over the years and investors have long suspected that they were turning trade against. count on you to keep us posted on this. christian, thank you so much. christian berthelsen is bloomberg's legal supporter. mark: coming up we will hear from rupert stein of the carlyle group, giving us his perspective on how much economic growth the u.s. could see with trump in the white house. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ julie: you are watching bloomberg. i'm julie hyman. and i'm mark martin. this is your global business report. the follow-up from the brexit af continues. it is taking a toll on luxury home prices in the u.k.. julie: knowing makes its first sale to iran in three decades. now the company has to sell the deal to president-elect trump. >> today in the quick take, insider trading, a look at what the findsjulie: knowing makes it sale to iran it, it's a wide rae of penalties for a corporate crime. julie: china has complained to the world trade organization about u.s. and european union tariffs. the chinese want them to quit using example prices from other
nations. they say that using third country models has artificially raised tariffs on chinese exports. market: the worst december in six years for the london housing market according to the property prices felle asking 4% from last month and house prices in london were down 6%. hike and worries about brexit have hurt luxury home prices. settling $70 billion in airplane sales to iran, the first deal of its kind since 1979, boeing may have to sell the deal to president-elect donald trump. he is opposed to the nuclear agreement with iran that eases act -- economic sanctions and cleared the way for the sale. donald trump is rejecting intelligence assessments that russia try to help him win the election. spoke to fox news.
trump: it's ridiculous. just another excuse. i don't believe it. i don't know why. it's just -- we talked about all sorts of things. it's another excuse. we had of -- we had a massive landslide victory, as you know, in the electoral college. very lowwn to a number. no, i don't believe that at all. a group group -- mark: of republican and democratic senators have called for an investigation. they say the russian meddling in the election is a great threat to national security. glue -- timeor the for the bloomberg quick take. it seems obvious at first glance that insider trading is cheating and should be a crime. fund billionaire famously went to jail for doing it and george soros paid a big fine. however, it isn't an obvious at all. in the u.s., or prosecutors have
vigorously pursued insider-trading cases, there is defining what constitutes insider trading and what doesn't. there are also huge variance in penalties, with a maximum two years of jail time in france, with a maximum of 20 in the u.s. or south korea. the decision restored some, but not all of the levers lost by when anors in 2014, appeals court in new york narrow the definition of insider trading and made it harder to bring cases. it became a crime in the u.s. through judicial interpretation of a 1934 law aimed at cleaning up the 19 29 stockmarket crash. one of the most famous cases made a household name of ivan boesky, who was thought to be part of the inspiration for the character gordon gekko in the ." 7 film "wall street
legislation against the practice until the 1990's. but after 2013 scandals embroiled prominent firms. the argument is that insider trading proponents contend it allows information to be incorporated into stock prices quickly, making the more accurate. the contrary view is that it is nonpublic information allowing a select few to make egg box. to complicate the issue, corporate employees are allowed to trade their own stocks so long as the information they are trading on is generally available. you can learn more about it on the bloomberg. that is your global business report. had to bloomberg.com for more stories. mark: last october the carlyle group cofounder david rubenstein warned that the u.s. was due for a recession.
we tend to have recessions every seven years. at some point in the next year or two or three, you can expect a recession. we are in here now, there's no indication of it, but you do expect some slowdown. today rubenstein backed off the downturn in the economy. was thealan greenspan head of the fed, there was a thought that the business cycle had been repealed. that turned out to not be the case. have world war ii, as i said before, we have have had recessions on average of every seven years. i think what has happened now is we have pushed it down the road a little bit because the stock market is more brilliant -- a -- atant -- a boolean ebouillant >> how
much. of a bloomberg we going to get? how much of a bust is going to follow? >> no one knows for sure. there's no doubt that you are pushing it down the road and the decline could be greater than would otherwise be the kreis -- the case. but i don't think we will see anything like 2006 or 2007. have, ithe one that we is modest, but it won't likely be in 2017. you are likely to see stimulus from the congress and tax cuts that will as a result push down any recession for quite some time. >> how do you process all of this as an investor? where are you in your cycle? >> depends on what part of the world we are looking at, but in the united it's we are determined to make investments because you think it's a good time. prices are not cheap, but financing is available. in europe, prices are very attractive right now. animal about all of the
fears, talking about them, meaning it's time to sell? it quite we are always selling some assets. are high.prices there is selling going on, but in some sectors they are depressed and you can make good investments. right now the sectors doing well are the ones you would want to sell. >> can you give us an understanding of which is which? theyergy, at blackstone, told us nothing. where is the distressed opportunity? >> it may not be in the united states. it may be in other parts of the world. looking at the global investors right now, probably everything is doing reasonably well. i don't see a gigantic area of distress, but some companies might have borrowed too much. about europe,t specifically? we have seen a lot of geopolitical risk in the markets pricing in. as you take a look at it, how do you process things like the turmoil in italy, france, or
germany? >> no doubt that it's more stressed. right now because of what's with thein italy brexit situation and france, the uncertainty there in terms of the next president, there's no doubt that there will be a chance to buy things at a lower price than before. europe is being held by the quantitative easing and they will be doing that for quite some time. no doubt that prices are cheaper in europe and elsewhere. that was david rubenstein. julie? julie: still ahead, big news out of europe over the weekend. a new prime minister in the weekend -- in the making. ." s is "bloomberg ♪
news from italy over the weekend. the country's foreign minister and theiramed reporting the he will be sworn in tonight. he was asked by the a time president to lead italy into the elections of 2018. dan, thank you so much, as always, for joining us to give you your -- give us your perspective. tell us a little bit about how this process networks. >> well, the process is moving quite quickly. as you mentioned, he will shortly be going back to visit the italian president and letting him know that he can put , leadinga government up the list of his ministers and tomorrow they will probably start the debate in parliament
for the vote of confidence. -- gentiloni has served as telecommunications minister. not as lively and charismatic as , but he has been taken because he is going to lead the hurry the to elections, probably. julie: how early will those elections be? his or any chance of them being earlier than 2018? dan: yes, i think there are a couple of stumbling blocks. his main mission is going to be to reform italy's electoral process. in other words, how they elect parliament. not an easy assignment. at the same time, they have some easy appointments coming up. they will be hosting g-8 meetings into the spring.
i would rule out elections during that time. one date that has been mentioned as june, but who knows. perhaps at the end of the day the italian president will that his government may as well survive until 2018. >> one of the more colorful descriptions today was that he was the avatar of renzi. is there an element of truth in that? >> sure. as i said, their allies. he supported the rise to the top of the leadership of the democratic party, serving as, you know, his secretary of state, foreign affairs minister. you know, they obviously huddled a couple of times during the weekend during the process to make sure that this was headed
in the right direction. it sounds a good simple task, you know? mission, as i said, is to get agreement between these diverse political opponents in italy to change the electoral reform. it's not something that you can do in 10 days. situation, these are all in merging right now. mark: let's get on to monte dei paschi. are the options to avoid estate rescue, are the options dwindling right now? dan: they are. they decided late yesterday at a meeting that they are going to press ahead with the capital plan. it's been tweaked a little bit, they are going to reopen for equity swap in the hopes of raising another billion euros. presumably that will make it
easier to find an anchor investor. the qatar sovereign fund has been mentioned. scale same time, they back a little bit the share sale plan in the sense that they an underwriting consortium but they have asked the banks to just place the shares directly into the market. and get this done before the end of the year. not easy. julie: it seems as though analysts are not terribly optimistic about them finding their own solutions. if the process to put him in quickly, does that mean that he can move quickly to formulate a plan on the banks? >> i think that the plan is already there. private plan, like i said, is going forward. the finance minister is expected to be confirmed. the fallback solution is that italy would probably have to
provide a plan just to keep the bank going. decree, there is a draft decree already put together. is there, lurking in the background in case they can pull it off. julie: all right, bloomberg's dan liefgreen, thank you so much. mark: coming up, it's the european close. we are 30 minutes away from the end of the monday session. check out what's happening on the markets today. falling on the stoxx 600 for the first day, rising every single day last week, down to the company surviving. ♪
mark: we are going to take you from new york to london, athens, and here's what we are watching today. european stocks are lower today, oil surging after opec and non-opec countries reached a deal. julie: as donald trump continues to fill out his cabinet, he may turn to rex tillerson for secretary of state. we look into those ties with russia. and christine lagarde goes on trial for negligence in france, alluding to overtime as french finance minister. what could the consequences be for one of the most powerful women in the world? mark: right, let's have a look at where european equity markets are trading right now. macro movers on the left