tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg December 13, 2016 7:00pm-8:01pm EST
packing, but some worry that rex tillerson is too close to the kremlin. "bloomberg daybreak: asia" coming to you live from the bloomberg u.s. asian headquarters. it is passed 8:00 a.m. >> seems like the markets are pretty confident with what we have heard out of president-elect donald trump. in markets went up anticipation that the fed is going to hike rates. we are delivering in asia. aboutwe will talk more rex tillerson as choice of secretary for state. we have survey numbers as well. large manufacturers saw and expected jump. the rest of the outlook looking pretty faint. we will see how that goes in the asian markets. >> we are looking pretty good. the global equities rally
continues in asian. the rex tillerson pick helping the asian session. 1%.a of 1/10 of this is a nice rally over the last 10 days as hopes of political rejuvenation injecting fresh momentum into the market. up 1/10 of 1%. we had that drastic improvement in business sentiment. new zealand liking -- new zealand is lagging. australia getting the most in asia. strong volume. if we go to the sector breakdown, you can see this rotation we have been talking about. we are seeing that across the australian markets, now across elsewhere, tech, financial, and consumer financial. some of these tech have not seen
the same kind of love from the trump rally. today.aterials lagging futures oil and steel as well. looking at the early sydni session, we are getting discretionary retail stocks. rallying,th care travel stocks as well. jet rallying close to 3%. i went to have a look at the dollar yen. it has not moved very much. the dollar-yen looking flat at 115. that is not providing a lot of momentum. we continue to see these declines when it comes to some of these metals. copper is looking lower. rangussie dollar looking
ed, despite this flood of got this rate. data.od of host: u.s. stocks rallied to new highs as investors look on the fed policy decision since the election. a look at the midday on wall street. >> it seems like the upper momentum has the upper hand in u.s. stock trading. all three major averages at records. the dow getting near 20,000. looking at the upward move of 1000 point in a short span of time. the nasdaq playing catch-up, also hitting a record. some of the best performers in the dow split between tech. shares of apple on the rise after positive comments from citigroup. and consumer names like home depot and exxon mobil rising. it was a fairly broad-based
rally over the course of the session. host: you mentioned the dow getting close to 20,000. one was the last time it rose by 1000 points? >> i am jealous of haidi's touchscreen magic. [laughter] but i have some of my own at the bloomberg terminal, looking at the 1000 point round-trip happening quickly. that was me in 1999. -- may in 1999. it has been 22 calendar days in the u.s.. the rate of return has been smaller. 0.8 versus 0.27%. it has been indeed very rapid. 20,000, it could be a record amount of time it has taken to jump by 1000. an important psychological level the resistors -- level retail investors pay attention to. host: that is been talk that u.s. stocks have been going
through to many changes. was a $12 billion auction of 30 year treasuries during the day. we have seen a big pullback in treasuries, particularly since the election. there was talk about how october and november were negative for treasuries. that is the bloomberg index showing the downturn in the second half of the year. the 30 year auction showed a better result. a couple different metrics on bloomberg. the red line shows a rebound from a nine-month low. the foreign participation in the white bar, which has kicked up as the direct better. -- direct bidder. another way of looking at this is a shortage in the treasury market. a jp morgan survey showed the biggest short in u.s. debt going back to 2014. interesting there is still a perception that treasuries could
have more to go downward. host: this backup in yields could persist. great to have you on "bloomberg daybreak: asia." let's get the first word news. >> india's decision to scrap high-value rupee notes sees inflation rising at its slowest rate in two years. consumer rates rose by less than expected 3.6%. vegetable prices fell. signs of a slowdown could push the r.b.i. intercutting rates. it cut six times since the start of last year, and managed inflation at 4% through 2021. shares getting 45% since the brexit vote in june. there are concerns on the transition, and what the insurgency means for business. chairman douglas flint says he sees more volatility ahead, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. >> more volatility, i think.
which, in many respects, is good for banking businesses. people think carefully about what they need to hedge, and how they position themselves. on the other hand, it is bad for economics to the extent that it slows in the community investment decisions, holding back on strategic options, because they don't know quite what will happen next. host: legal casinos are a step closer in japan after an upper house committee approved the new legislation. the bill is expected to pass final debate in parliament wednesday, opening the door to potentially billions of dollars of investment. more legislation will be required before any so-called integrated resource can be not to open in time for the 2020 olympics. ecb miller's central and eastern european assets for $7.8 billion will catapult japan's largest brewer to number three in
europe. shouldest acquisition close in the first half of next year. 4.5% lowers finished in tokyo. dayal news 24 hours a powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. mobil's rex tillerson is president-elect donald trumps pick for secretary of state, setting up a confirmation battle over his close relationship with russia. rob barnett is a senior entity policy analyst and joins us live from washington. great to have you. let's talk about the controversial ties tillerson has with russia. trump seems to be surrounding himself with pro fossil fuel advisers. what does that say about his
energy policy? rob: he is going to surround himself with those that are pro-oil, natural gas, and coal. and in many ways, reversed legacy that president barack obama has been building on pro-climate policies. word of cautiona. just because you won the election and have a new set of advisors in agency aheads, that doesn't mean you get to rewrite all the underlying laws. there will be numerous institutional and political hurdles to achieve what they are talking about, at least rhetorically. host: when you take a look at the team, it seems like rick perry will be offered secretary position. they tend to lean toward that fossil fuel based sentiment. how much can they actually accomplish? rob: at least they can change
the sentiment and direction of the agencies they will be heading/ . i would expect the fossil fuel businesses in the u.s. would at least feel like they are going to get a better shake from the epa or the department of energy under president-elect donald trump. the big significant changes require congress to step in. if you want to take on climate change regulation for example, scott pruitt said he wants to do at the epa, that requires congress to step in. we would expect we would see this 60 votes in the senate become a big sticking point. you need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. republicans don't have 60 votes in the senate. host: what about the paris climate agreement? is that really dead under donald trump? rob: president-elect trump says
he is still thinking about it, frankly. we will see. thinking about rex tillerson, he is a centrist on climate. he has acknowledged it israel. -- it is real. he has spoken favorably about the carbon tax and the paris climate agreement. even though the epa will be headed by a climate skeptic, scott pruitt, rex tillerson as secretary of state is middle-of-the-road. maybe we will see the u.s. into gauge with -- u.s. engage with the international community. host: thank you so much. much more ahead on donald trump and his hawkish stance on china, causing concern among investors. a professork to from the university of sydney. plus more views on the fed meeting as we count down to the widely expected rate hike. this is bloomberg.
host: this is "bloomberg daybreak: asia." >> a quick check of the latest business headlines. johnson and johnson's proposed takeover is off. the largest european higher tech rejectediotech firm the move. sources tell us johnson & johnson was open to discussing a full takeover or other ties, but actelion leaned toward remaining independent. j&j says the two sides failed to reach an agreement. >> the macquarie group leading a $5.5 billion gaming bid for gaming company. the mcquarrie led consortium is leading three dollars per share,
plus a share in a new wagering company. it has not yet formed a view on how they offer compares with task force. host: morgan stanley president says it is too early to declare a lasting rebound on wall street trading revenue. global investment banks on pace for the first annual on trading revenue increase in 4 eyars, after donald trump's surprise election win sparked a massive shift from fixed income to equities. morgan stanley shares slipped after colorist -- shares flipped after he spoke to bloomberg. >> yes, the low picked up since the election, but the overall seed pool related to fix equities is related on the margin each year. i don't think this is a significant pickup inactivity since last quarter. host: one rate hike on wednesday, two the most next
year. that is what the fed expects to announce after a two-day meeting wraps up. could the expectations of a trump spending boost change that timeline? bloomberg's kathleen hays is more on that. there is certainly uncertainty. >> there are signs that some entities are taking donald trump seriously. it is a done deal. meetingwraps up its hours from now. janet yellen said the case for a rate hike has continued to strengthen. other fed speakers has said it is appropriate. retail sales were stronger than expected. we had some healthy reports. let us watch the rate hike probability at 100% for three weeks now, since november 21. a survey done by our bloomberg eco team in washington backing
economist about the 20 -- asking economists about the 2017 path. they are looking for gradualism, two hikes next year. charlie prosser was on bloomberg television and agrees with all of that. he sees ended of inflation. now we will hear from alan greenspan. >> the labor force is running out of extra workers. the unemployment rate is under 5%. lower,'t go very much 150-200,000another increase in payrolls a month is not going to continue. we are running out of people. host: running out of people, the bond market seeing rising inflation expectations too. kathleen: right, fears about a
real children inflation. what about donald trump's promises to make america great again? could that change the forecast? kathleen: said officials have said look, we don't know what donald trump is going to do. we have to make policy based on what we see in front of us. markets are looking ahead. 10 year note yield in the u.s. went from 1.83% before the election to 2.47% now. they have definitely reacted. betld trump supplement that of 100% rate hike? small businesses are betting on trump. the small business optimism index hit its highest in two years. the biggest one-month again since 2009. 3 23.ll go to bloomberg, #5 hiring starting to move up a bit .
that last reading the very far right of your screen, turquoise line, a 19 point jump in expectations for the economy to improve. pretty clear they are looking at donald trump's election and are betting on it. host: if small businesses are right and trump can cut taxes and spending, will that change the fed's mind about gradualism? kathleen: that as remains to be seen. janet yellen will be asked about that at the press conference. two stories on bloomberg today. one from her 50 reporters in washington. he says we might find all the trauma in his meeting not so much about what janet yellen says, but about how donald trump reacts to it on twitter. will he signal some pressure on general -- on janet yellen? but he did to boeing and other companies. trump, you can open
any of these tweets from donald trump. see where it says subscribe to tweets? you can have an automatic feed of trump tweets into your bloomberg messages. host: we might need that for at least next year. [laughter] more from former fed chair alan greenspan later on bloomberg. watch out for more interviews with the former ecb president and bank of england governor mark carney. bloomberg will have special coverage on wednesday on the fed decision beginning at 1:00 p.m. in new york and 2:00 a.m. in hong kong. if you are staying up for that. host: and you might. [laughter] pretty exciting markets. coming up, investing markets, or emergent ones? this is bloomberg. ♪
betty: this is "bloomberg daybreak: asia." >> confidence among hong kong manufacturers has improved the first since june last year. our next guest says his expectations remain weak, opened towards more fiscal stimulus. he joins us live from singapore. really great to have you. we were speaking on the survey earlier this morning from tankan. he had a red flag when it came to the yen. he said the u.s. registration and donald trump will realize this might not be a good idea for the economy. what was your take on the overall? feel about the business sentiment that we see in japan? it seems to remain the same, despite the manufacturer balance. >> i did listen to your
conversation. you are right, the tankkan was flat. most of the rally was predicated on the yen weakness. maybe 27% on share buybacks. the share buybacks will continue next year, but the yen weakness is the major call. , do see the dollar as stronger and the bank of japan will be happy about that. if the bank of japan keeps the 10 year bond yield around zero, and yet bond yields elsewhere are creeping up, then the change has to be reflected in the currency instead. i think japan will continue to be a good market on that basis. betty: we have not exactly seen asia track the gains we have seen on wall street. we see these record highs every day. the white line is the s&p performance relative to develop
equities. the blue line is the japan performance. we still see the nikkei doing a catch up. do you think this can continue? where do you see the flows going? heading to the u.s., out of stocks, or somewhere else? mark: the japanese market is quite unique in asia in that it is the only one when the currency goes down, the stock market goes up. simplistically, people don't want to buy asian markets because they are worried about currency losses. for some reason in japan, i guess it is a big enough domestic liquidity market that it marches by a different drum. i think the issue with asian markets will be the dollar. if the dollar continues to get stronger, that will dissuade a lot of people from buying markets in asia they would otherwise like to buy.
i think what janet yellen says will be important. is she going to be hawkish? if she is, ironically it could be bullish for the u.s. stock market. it is an investment for the freight train of the economy. it means a weaker dollar in asian markets. betty: you mentioned there would be winners and losers with president elect trump. on nt you to get specific that. not just in asia. will most emerging markets not outperform if there is a strong dollar. the exception is russia. russia has had sanctions since 2008, which ironically have made it a much more self-sufficient economy. it will have positive growth next year for the first time in 3 years. i believe the sanctions will be lifted.
betty: it is 8:30 in singapore. we are half an hour from the open of trading in lion's bidd ing. betty: it does look a little bit dark. i am in new york. you are watching "bloomberg daybreak: asia." japan'sdence among large manufacturers improve for the first time since june last year. as the weaker yen improves, sentiment in the boj's survey rose from 10 to 6. .n outlook up from 8 to 6
increase investment investment from the current fiscal year was below estimates. donald trump has laid the groundwork for congressional confirmation battles over his pick for secretary of state. exxon mobil ceo rex tillerson will be nominated by the president-elect. he says tillerson's experience running a global enterprise and relationships with world leaders are second to none. some question tillerson's close ties with russian president vladimir putin. oil has been trading among 17 month highs, shifting focus from production cuts to the chances of rebalancing global supply in 2017. the deal between opec and independent producers prompted the international agency to protect higher u.s. shale outputs. general saysy's all sides are determined to make it work. >> in our first collaboration with non-opec, we are going to
have a joint agreement that is jointly binding. both opec and non-opec will serve in the monetary -- busy monitoring committees to ensure the compliance to this agreement. >> syrian forces have retaken the city of aleppo, driving out rebel fighters in the government's biggest victory in years of the civil war. the human secretary-general receiving alarming reports -- u.n. secretary-general receiving alarming reports of atrocities against young children and women. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> let's check out market trading in the asia-pacific ahead of the fed decision. we are seeing weakness on
japanese shares, down 1/10 of 1%. survey,kkan manufacturer sentiment balanced, but the rest treading water. sydney seeing shares up three quarters of 1%. watch out for the 56 11. that is the august high on the benchmark. the august dollar still floating around the $.75 handle. we saw better than expected jobless rates numbers, falling to 3.6%. slightly better than the previous month of 3.7%. let's go back to that tankan survey. feeling more confident when it comes to business conditions, with plans to boost investment full and short of expectations. shery ahn has more on the tankkan. give us the headlines. shery: this is not surprising
giving the plunge in the yen in the last couple months. yen troubling the most since the dollar in -- dropping the most against the dollar since 1995. japanese exports, their sentiment has been proved to be 10 of the previous 6 quarters. when it comes to milan manufacturers, -- non manufacturers, there was no improvement. falling from 19 in the june quarter, also missing estimates. the outflow from large manufacturers improved to 8 from the previous quarter's. it justmanufacturers, stayed flat. they missed animist estimates. this is a little bit disappointing. we have seen companies on average plan to boost capx by
5.5%, ending in march. that is much less than economists had expected, expecting a boost of 3.6%. also a slowdown from the previous quarter. >> we still can't quite get that. shinzo abe has been pushing for that. why have we not seen that? >> you can call this the missing link in the monetary transmission process in japan. you are seeing more easing, a weakening yen. this is boosting corporate profits. also profit margins for non-manufacturers at record highs. but why is this not being transmitted when it comes to giving them confidence, to increase investment? hsbc says that is because headline sales are not growing enough. the extra demand that you get can be accommodated with existing capacity. our bloomberg intelligence teams are telling us that our concerns
about demography and volatile commodity prices. much with the analysis on the impact of the tankan survey. in the meantime, vladimir putin visiting japan. both sides have said they want closer economic relations. talks may be overshadowed by a territorial dispute dating back to world war ii. our next guest one of the leading business figures involved in the two-way tie. joining us is the executive director of the russian-japanese business council. what needs to be accomplisheded on this trip? good morning. we expect lots of good improvement this week. this is the culmination of a business season for russian and japanese companies.
to restore economic relations and find common ground to get a very different and sometimes .nusual areas not just traditional like energy and interest of her, but health care. agriculture, food processing. and many others. betty: there certainly needs to the sort ties, to see of investments, not just between russia and japan, but japanese countries in russia. what sort of deals do you think might be negotiated? alexey: i think it will be unfair to count the number of deals or contracts signed. it is may be more fair to compare apples to apples. energy is still the major driver of bilateral trade.
also many companies in japan are trying also to use the , because a very low reasonably low level of energy prices. we do believe there will be some type of anchor deal linked to agriculture, infrastructure, technological improvements. those are some of the areas. theses not because of bilateral relations in december, it is a type of good timing for moving forward and to provide from -- provide growth from both sides. but also do something together and try to create
competitiveness, tried to enter new markets together. certainlyht, 1 +1 is more than going alone singularly. being an even bigger force. i want to talk to you about president-elect donald trump. he seems to have warmer relations with moscow, appointing rex tillerson himself, who also has pretty close ties to russia. do you expect that will make , particularly in the energy become even easier given this warmer climate from the u.s.? i have met mr. tillerson once in an economic forum. he sounded very reasonable. we do believe it is not too much
to make this situation worse with bilateral and political relations. russia and the u.s. are able to .ind sustainable dialogue we believe the new toinistration will try improve the situation, and create a better framework for toinesses to do what we used and great new value -- and to create new value for our customers. betty: does that include sanctions? what do you want to come out of this potential u.s.-russia relationship? from my perspective, there will be no way to do something bilaterally until it is good for both countries, for
both parties. if you as a company are instead on moving forward -- are interested in moving forward, and they create something sad affair tos a limit them from doing this. to do something that is not needed. on thoseapan, agreements which could be beneficial for all sides, they have a good chance to reach success. we believe sanctions are not a very wise way to create extra obstacles for business in both countries. betty: really quickly, getting back to why you are in tokyo, we talk about the seven decades of
territorial dispute between russia and japan. do you expect to see any progress on that front? even a deal? alexey: we try to focus on what we are responsible for. so i do not believe there is any chance for improvement until we aeat a proper -- we create proper environment. we will intensify significant dialogue on the business side, humanitarian side, whatever. territorial disputes are a long one. speaking, we do not yet see any big reasons for russia to change its positions. goode do want to have strategic relations with our
neighbor. japan is very important for us, even stated that president putin himself during the union speech. he mentioned japan as a big diplomatic area of priority for next year. at least that the business environment will pave a political road in the future. there will be less competitions for business on both sides. -- complications for business on both sides. >> we appreciate your time. still ahead, tillerson taiwan,, and trade. the outlook for relations between the policyof donald trump's' ministration and asia. this is bloomberg.
>> this is "bloomberg daybreak: asia." a quick check of the latest business headlines. chinese oil production has rebounded from the lowest levels in seven years after prices rallied. a global move to curb output. production in november advanced 3.4%, with the highest since july. however that was still not enough to overcome the industry's long-term slump. china's output 9% lower than the same ones last year. china's state-owned oil company may consider an ipo of its regional business, raising as much as $10 billion. banks asked to submit proposals for potential hong kong listing next year. the world's biggest refiner reached a 30% stake in its retail division, more than $15 billion. it has yet to comment on any future listings. >> blackstone' global head of
real estates does not see an end chinese buying. he tells bloomberg u.s. economic growth is expected to be higher under a trump presidency, and could justify higher property values. hotels most attractive to japanese buyers. >> there is a lot of liquidity out there. we sell things through the public market. there are a bunch of assets to canadian pension funds. we just sold a large hotel to the korean investor. we are seeing lots of demand for high-quality assets.on the other hand , what he saw from china was an announcement of a focus. i don't think we will see a complete cessation out of chinese investment. >> trump said his support for a one china policy might get him better trade deals, which china responded with a warning.
>> joining us to discuss how these pensions might play out. it is great to have you. we have to mention the call to taiwan, then electing terry branstad as u.s. ambassador to beijing. that his take on the one china policy. uncertainty really lingers. is this a blender, or -- a blunder, or signaling a seismic shift in foreign policy? >> no, i don't think it is a blender. we are seeing donald trump shaping up to have a much more hawkish approach to donald tusk to china in particular. we will see a much more aggressive policy. we are still crystal ball-ing this at this stage. that taiwan phone call was made deliberately. he has made some consideration
to deviating from the one china policy. over the weekend he said that in a sense he would not be bound are the one china policy unless otherdsuld be yiel in there is, that it sent shivers through beijing and the region. >> there are a lot of comments, trump is a pragmatist, she is a dealmaker, and he has to go long when it comes to asia. how is he going to dictate these relations moving forward if he is invigorating the big player, china? >> firstly we need to know what his motivating behavior is. number one, as he said, he wants to treat taiwan as a piece of leverage. essentially to put pressure on beijing to change its policies
and other areas. he doesn't think as a dealmaker, he should be making deals about the one china policy and maintaining those deals. intenseeijing gives an compromise on issues that are important to jump. there are other ways we can read this. a second read of trump is that he genuinely wants to defend taiwan and upgrade strategic relations, both for security reasons, but also because taiwan is a fellow democracy. his team might view it is important to defend a democratic taiwan. a third read might simply be that he is talking tough on taiwan as a show of strength. an opening head to distinguish himself from the obama regime, to show that he will be bold and toucgh and will not take
established principles for granted. obama has been more hesitant to do so. >> he is talking tough, and so far acting tough, but for instance, appointing the governor of iowa, terry branstad, to be his ambassador, who: xi jinping a friend. acte it is talk tough, then a bit differently behind-the-scenes to get things done. >> and that could be exactly right. you point on an important fact. there is an element of good cop bad cop between trump and branstad. branstad has established himself as a close friend of the chinese people. the chinese people have the same view. xi jinping has known him since the mid-1980's.
they have an unprecedented personal relationship for an oncoming chinese ambassador. this is important for investor to have relationships. but these sorts of long-standing personal relationships with the chinese demonstration will smooth over some of the rough edges of trump's take on china. i don't think it would be accurate to look too much into the appointment of branstad and read that trump will be soft on certain issues. d tostad has pushed iowa har sell soybeans on the japanese market. he has also been a governor that has pushed the u.s. trade agenda in the same way that trump wants to push his own. fellow at theht, u.s. studies center on u.s. china relations. much more ahead. monsanto saving 99% of
there are still some hurdles to go through. >> definitely some hurdles in terms of regulatory approval. let me walk through the details. $66 billion is what we are looking at. $56 billion in terms of equity, and $10 million of monsanto debt. 99% of votes cast in favor, a near unanimous decision. that is a pretty whopping number. that represents 75% of all outstanding shares. if this deal goes through, monsanto shareholders will get $128 per share. let's look at how much until -- how monsanto's shareprice changed. this is a flat close, down 0.1%. i want you to look at the bloomberg terminal. this is btv5319.
this red is the difference between the shareprice and the offer of $128 per share. on the right side of your screen, that spread is about $23 or so. that is better than what you see in november, where the spread is about $30. based on the share reaction, investors are implying this deal won't happen, because it is not headed higher towards $120. >> now the deal heads to regulators. thatere are two or three are highlighting. one is potentially getting closer to a monopoly in terms of ag space. the national farmers union in the u.s. says that emerging means that 3 firms with control 80% of the u.s. corn seed sales, and 70% of the global pesticide market.
madee megadeals are being to benefit the shareholders of at the expense of family farmers, ranchers, and rural economies." they have asked the department of justice to reject the deal. there are environmental concerns. of course when you think about monsanto, they are one of the biggest suppliers of genetically modified foods. in the eu, they are very against that. a letter of negatives. if you will see this goes through, it will be completed at the end of 2017. >> that is it from us. 20 more to come on "bloomberg markets: asia." >> we will have more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> it's 8:00 p.m. in new york city. >> from bloomberg's asia headquarters in hong kong, this is "bloomberg market: asia." >> asia pacific markets build on wall street's record sharing reaching a one-month high ahead of the fed decision. >> that optimism comes from speculation the expected rate hike means the u.s. economy continues to strengt