tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg December 21, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EST
going to take you from new york to london, tipper lynn all in next hour. here is what we are watching today. hamperingnd italian -- rallying european stocks. eu's top court in favor of borrowing means spanish banks may have to give back billions of euros. julie: we will be speaking to the head of global asset allocation. we will get his thoughts on the european banking sector. germany has launched a manhunt for the perpetrator of a deadly a christmas on market. we will have the latest from berlin. we will look at how european
equities are trading near the close. is your function. mixed picture for european stocks, yesterday highest levels of the year. all those currencies are rising against the dollar. 1%. up by 4/10 of we had yields coming down in germany. commodities and equity futures in your far right columns. i want to look at what is happening to the spread between the french and german 10-year and italian and german and 10 year as well. after the election we saw the spread, the difference in yield between germany and those two countries increase. we have come back but we are still above the year to date average, the white line is the spread with france. it reaches 56 basis points on november 28. is the spread with
italy. it reached 1.87% on november 24, the highest in over 2 years. is the spread with let's get to sweden. we had a big central-bank risingn today, the krona to the strongest level since october. the central bank extended the government on program by 30 billion krona in the first half of next year. the expansion of qe was forecast one of the analysts. two of the six central bank holders called for an abrupt to purchases. the white line is inflation in sweden, 1.4%. -5%.lue line is record low the oil price is the purple line, and let's head to what is
happening in china. the yuan strengthening to a high. it's slumping against the dollar. yuanhite line is the against the basket. is turning increasingly negative, sending vets for further losses soaring, the gap between forward contracts wagering on the offshore yuan iy negative, a year from now versus its current level, it is tending towards a record monthly jump. keep an eye on china as we approach the end of 2016 and begetting of 2017. 90 minutes into the trading day in the u.s., abigail is there. how is 20,000 looking? we are less than 50 points away from the possible dow
20,000. we have very modest declines for the dow, s&p 500, and nasdaq. investors are watching closely to see whether the dow can hit that important psychological milestone. we will be watching all day. as for earnings movers, relative to sneakers, it is a tale of two stories. they slipped slightly lower earlier in the premarket. beat earnings estimates by 16%. it looks like this was driven by rising consumer demand. finish line, the shares are really plunging. the company missed earnings by 32%. sales by 10%, they guided full-year earnings. down by about 60%. the i.t.center, consulting firm, the shares are lower too. you can really see the plunge.
miss.t-quarter revenue miss. it's worth wondering whether or not this points to a weaker i.t. spending environment out there. another earnings loser, we are looking at fedex. we see the plunge here on a miss.-quarter earnings they missed by about 4% to put up $2.80 per share. they are spending more on their ground delivery system, something the cfo alan grass said would be a long-term positive. it is worth noting several banks. finally, grinding it out, natural gas really on a tear, up more than 6% at this point, jumping its most in 2 miss. months ahead of reports tomorrow with investors saying inventories may be drawn down more than expected. this is helping some of the emp companies. absolutely surging, southwest energy. real strength here for the
energy complex. course -- julie: and of course it's cold, which never helps. courtney donohoe has more from our course -- newsroom. courtney: a german official says a tunisian suspect in the early terror attack had been considered a potential terrorist threat. the associated press said newsr. that security changed information about the subject as recently as november. cnn reported that the man was arrested in august with forged documents but was released. ylum request by the suspect is said to have been rejected in july. a spokesman for russian president vladimir putin is suggesting moscow doesn't believe the man who killed russia's ambassador to turkey acted on its own, but he refused to offer theories behind the assassination.
yesterday russia flew a team of 18 investigators and foreign ministry officials to take part in the probe. their plane was returned home body and his family. syrian tv says aleppo evacuations have resumed, allowing rebels to continue. a dispute had delayed the final round of evacuation for 20,000 civilians and fighters. the european union's top court ruled against britain and its first major judgment of the brexit era. forcingu.k. measures telecommunications companies to keep hold of customer data for a year. a transition team spokesperson says president-elect donald trump's tons -- sons are not involved in a fundraising event
except for the day after the father's inauguration. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. back to our big banking story out of europe. shares of lenders tumbling after eu's top court ruled that spanish lenders may have to hand back billions of euros to mortgage customers. shares fell to a record low earlier. now from our bureau eporter, andur r from our metro reporter, we are joined by the bloomberg spain economy reporter. what is this ruling actually about now? ruling, shares tumbling
all morning really take the industry by surprise. the ruling says that spanish banks overcharged their clients when it comes to their mortgage they wouldthat means have to pay this money back to their clients. a ruling that has put clients first, and this is to clarify, to mention it is a retroactive ruling. it can go anywhere back in time and it can go up to billions of euros. the bank of spain estimates it can cost up to 4 billion euros. mark: what does it mean for the spanish banking industry? >> today there has been a big reaction. every single spanish trade low. but they have to pay their money
back pray they will pay their money back. it does have pressure when it comes to profitability going into maybe the fourth order where it's a challenging environment. time, there is pressure on a possible capital requirements. at the same time, they did come out and say they are not going to be affected by this because they never engaged in any of these types of turns or closes. julie: what exactly was the overcharging about? what did it in tale? -- entail? maria: just to recap for our , it's aand get us ready flexible rate. the ruling session says the so-called mortgage floor set i banks and ensured that boards
would have to pay a minimum, and given the current scenario, very low rates is to simply not work for the clients. they argue that they should be paid the money back, and that they should do it in a way that has no time limits. would mean it can go anywhere in time, if you can actually prove your case and bring forward a case and prove the you were overly charged. julie: maria, thank you for explaining this a little bit. let's go now to our reporter in rome about the situation there with the italian banks that we have been following so closely. has been trying to raise capital trade it looks like it's not going to happen. why has it failed? is it just lack of demand? investors are less than impressed. we are minus an anchor investor. the sovereign wealth fund hasn't committed and we also reported
that the second debt for equity spot has raised one billion euros. the aim was 1.5 billion. it's definitely not looking good. julie: i just want to take a look at a chart on the bloomberg that mark brought up earlier, it has to do with debt to gdp. this is something you highlighted in your stories as well. this is debt to gdp in italy. the dotted lines off to the right are the for the government forecast to remain stable. after the bank rescue it is forecast to increase. what kind of capacity does the italian government have to take on a higher level of debt if this rescue goes through? there's always room to increase debt. the previous government had pledged that they would start reducing the total. tos is clearly not going happen next year. we have an economist telling us
atio couldebt to gdp r go up by 1%. we won't get a reduction, and the fact that parliament today granted a government request to debt by asountry's much as 20 billion euros to help rescues, thatbank means the debt would increase next year. oomberg running a good story today that says italian banks, to cleanse their balance sheet, are going to need a lot more. >> we have seen estimates that may be more than twice that sum would be needed, depending on what the other bank -- any credit manages to do. -- do. the whole host of trouble lenders cueing up, and we are expecting a government decree possibly friday, possibly earlier, which could deal with monte dei paschi, but also pave
the way for rescuing or doing something for other smaller lenders. mark: we have heard all sorts of ways and phrases, precautionary recapitalization. what's the format of the bailout for paschi ultimately going to look like and who is it going to affect? >> the finance minister was asked just that during question time in parliament this afternoon and he said he couldn't respond because there was a market operation underway for paschi. what we are hearing from officials is that they would involve some form of precautionary recapitalization. the key is to find out whether the government can cushion the burden on bondholders who have to pay a cost on the eu rules, and that's the key political new primebecause the minister has the
levels of 2016 yesterday. let's head over to the head of global asset allocation. he joins us from paris. thank you for joining us today. trumpfh further has this lation trade got to go? i would say at least until january 20. the end of the year is the moment am playing, all the ones just a few in -- days of by year end. i would expect some kind of pause on the equities and the yield going up on bonds. mark: do you think it has
overextended this rally in equities? have the economic policy which would confirm to exit some measures, which would lose the economic activity in real terms, but also in nominal erms. that means nominal gdp growth might have to go faster than expected. you the correspondents, if you catch the corporate tax rate from 25% to 30%, this would boost corporate earnings by 8%. 15%,u see it from 35% to this would be immediate earnings growth of 15%. that would have a huge impact on corporate earnings. julie: indeed. your area being asset
allocation, are you more significantly overweight, particularly u.s. equities, versus your typical position? in this we have earlier, raised the equity waiting to other weight. we aresense that definitely continuing to move away from bonds. the environment for nominal gdp growth accelerates. there is the cause of 2017. i believe that the assets linked to the growth developments may --n the equity market julie: when you are looking
around the globe as well and trying to weigh among equities, what is most attractive? how does the u.s. look to you versus europe? >> we like the u.s. equity markets. .t's not cheap grea we believe we can go to 2400 or 2500. they're going to have significant tax changes in the u.s. u.s. equities we like, for now. not cheap, but we have momentum. we also like the japan equity markets, backed by the new monetary policy. when you have unlimited commitments by the bank of japan to intervene and to continue to push it down, and we know that
-- japan equity index obviously from a u.s. standpoint, from the u.s. dollar, you would need to hedge u.s. dollar, you would need to hedge the guarantee. you mentioned the emerging markets. sentimentally, i think they have some position on them. if you go from now to the end of 2017, we are looking at the next year. when youevery time have treasury yields going up in the states which is what you have to date, they are normalizing from higher levels to normalize levels. we also have some temporary downturn on emerging assets on the currencies. temporarily, from an asset allocation standpoint, have reduced the exposure to wait for the bond yields to come back to normms, but they are rising, it's not good for e.m.
we have somewhat downgraded the exposure to emerging assets across the asset classes. we have to leave it there. thank you for your time. the head of global asset allocation joining us from paris. the european close is just moments away now. we have to leave it there. thank you for yourthis is bloom. ♪
julie: live from london and new york, i'm julie hyman. mark: i am mark barton. julie: i thin waiting for you to say wednesday the whole show. it's time for the bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the business stories in the news right now. governor says he does not think the bank is nearing the bond buying feeling. he spoke with bloomberg in stockholm earlier today. >> given that we are buying bonds, it's obvious there will be a shortage of bonds compared
to a couple years ago. on the other hand, in terms of liquidity, we have a team that can be a serious problem. ingves cities quite happy with the krona's -- said he's quite happy with the krona's level. mark: we are four minutes away from the close. the stoxx 600 is lower. tax marginally higher. it's all about the banks today, spanish and italian banks. close is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
yesterday. it is the bank index, which earlier was much lower than it is right now at the close. it's down by8/10 of 1%. it fell the most since august 2. the big story is the spanish give backhave to billions of euros to mortgage customers after a ruling by the borrowers who, paid too much interest on home loans predating may 2013, on so-called mortgage floors are entitled to a refund. the bank phil as much as 7.5%, banco popular fell as well. this doesn't affect all banks as well, that has to be taken into account. the analysts say this does affect capital levels, it will affect profitability in the fourth quarter.
that's a big banking story in spain. no surprises, the ongoing big banking story in italy. shares of monte dei paschi fell as much as 19%. todayhad a lot of halt in 's session. 12% lower, record low today. biggest decline since july. concerns are that it will fail in its effort to raise 5 billion euros of capital from individuals, from money managers, and it said its liquidity makes it negative in 4 months. the italian government wants support to boost the country's 20 billion euros, potentially preparing resources to help bail out whatever you want to term it, the likes of monte dei paschi and other troubled lenders trading will be a big story the next couple of days. i want to get to volatility. this chart essentially shows the b stocks index. each bar is december of each
year going back to 2000. gauge of the european the volatility, the fear index fell, fell to the lowest since -- lowest level since july 2014. calmest end to a year ever. the index never fared this well in december. it's incredible, isn't it? investors are shrugging off trump's election, the italian referendum results, and the political events of this week which we saw in ankara and zurich and berlin. something i will talk more about in the battle of the charts. julie: that's what you call a tease, mark. very interesting, especially the fact that volatility tends to pull back in december. such a large drop given other decembers is interesting. volatility is also depressed. movingseeing stocks not
much today, so not making much progress towards 20,000. the nasdaq down 1/4 of 1%. if you look at the pull within the market today, the groups on see ane on the imap, you equal amount of red and green as you would expect on your screen. energy shares trading higher along with utilities and materials. health care and tech are the biggest drags. i want to check on oil, a week -- an hour after we got those weekly inventories which showed an unexpected build in inventories in the u.s., inventories remain lower. there is a bit of volatility following that report because there was a drawdown in distillates inventory as well as gasoline. let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. courtney donohoe as more from our newsroom. says the man should
be considered armed and dangerous. the notice obtained by the thatiated press indicates he has used six different aliases and three different nationalities. , andsts multiple aliases the egyptian and lebanese citizenship. german authorities say they rejected the man's asylum request in july. we that he has will hear more from germy in just a few minutes. authorities in mexico have not yet said what may have caused an explosion at a fireworks market that killed at least 29 people and injured another 72. wasmarket in mexico's state bustling the choppers when the powerful chain reaction explosion ripped through the stalls. some of the injured have been burned over 90% of their bodies straight in other news, china's iscalled airpocalypse forcing tens of thousands of people to flee the country.
those who are staying are forced to wear masks or stay indoors because of the suffocating smog. smog has closed airports, schools, and roads. the u.s. military will return about 10,000 acres of land it has held since world war ii back to the japanese. the territory officially referred to as the northern training area, the largest tract of land returned from the u.s. producessince 1972, american controlled areas on the island by 70%. japan's prime minister shinzo abe attended the ceremony. german authorities have arrested on4-year-old moroccan man suspicion of being a member of islamic state. federal prosecutors say the man was part of a network around a man suspected of planning the attacks in paris. global news 24 hours a day,
powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. ofk: let's get the latest elements on the deadly truck attack in the christmas market and berlin. matt, where are we on this manhunt for the perpetrator of this attack? now it looks as if we have another suspect the german police are after. remember yesterday, are the german police, i should say, had one suspect in custody but had doubts that he was really the man behind the attack. later in the evening, they ended up saying they didn't have enough proof to tie that pakistani refugee to the attack, and so they let him go. however, it seems as if they have found the actual identity card of another refugee under truck that drove through the
christmas market. they are now after this man between the ages of 21 and 23 from tunisia, and they have in thed raids germany.ern part of you have to assume looking around here in berlin as well. they are doing everything they can, and following about 500 pieces of evidence including fingerprints, dna, photographs, and video. mark: the focal point will no doubt continue to be on the chart. what has been the reaction both within political circles and the media to the incident, and her response? matt: opposition from the far right popular party, afd, as well as some of the opposition from within her own party, police the csu, -- at least the
csu, has seized on this to point out that they are not in agreement with her refugee politics, the open-door policy that she followed in 2015, in which her party, the cd, has tried to do a 180 on. they kind of lay the blame at her feet. as far as what we are seeing in reaction to the people here in germany, there are 2500 or thereabouts christmas markets throughout the country, and many of them will have far fewer visitors tonight and last night because of the threat of this perpetrator still being out there, armed and dangerous, possibly able to carry out another attack. julie: i'm going to pick it up here and switch gears admittedly, there is a bit of a turn here. the big corporate story out of germany that you have been following has to do with volkswagen. that is as the carmaker comes to what looks like a final settlement related to the
cheating scandal. talk us through that, if you would. final settlement in the u.s. related to the civil side of the admissions cheating scandal, they had already dealt with the tw0-liter diesel engines that broke the andfornia air restrictions, they really cheated on. now they had to deal with the three liter diesel engines that have the device that folks waken claims wasn't really a cheap device but just one that wasn't officially authorized by u.s. regulators. they will pay $1 billion to deal with three liter engines. they paid $16 billion to deal with a two-liter engine. it was a far bigger case of cheating. that just deals with the civil side of things. they still have to look forward to the criminal thing. around theelse world, they have to deal with investor losses. those will take much longer to get through the courts.
julie: mark? are we beginning when it comes to volkswagen, beginning to see vw get a grip of this emissions scandal? are we at the stage where we can say vw can move on? course, last month it saw positive market share for the first time in europe since the crisis. are we at that stage yet, or not? matt: i think you can see by the matt: i think you can see by the shares, it goes back to last september, that they definitely bottomed out after the huge drop when the crisis was still acute, they were at 170 before, came d own into the 90's, and now we are back up at 138, this looks like it could be a dollar chart. so it looks like we have definitely bought as far as
shares have concern -- our concern. shares have turned around as well. they have hit the bottom there and they have started to add market share. the question is how much trouble they get in on the criminal side, if any individual executives are brought into this, did they know what was happening, how could they not know what was happening, and then the investor lawsuits, how long those last and how expensive they are. mark: thanks a lot. julie, breaking news. julie: the latest development is actually in and johnson & johnson entering exclusive negotiations on a strategic deal here. that is after previously johnson & johnson had said it was not going to pursue actelion. bloomberg news reported that exec --e had been in exclusive talks to acquire shares of the drugmaker. about 6.5% on the
day. sanofee shares in u.s. trading taking a leg up as we get this headline. actelion, johnson & johnson entering exclusive negotiations on a strategic deal. we will bring you other headlines as we do get them on those developing negotiations. colin seesmichael oil averaging $57 on the inventory. more from this interview on "daybreak america's." this is bloomberg. colin♪
opec and non-opec members continue to be priced in. these cuts aren't exactly as they appear. >> i think there's going to be around $1 million per day out of the $1.8 million committed in terms of real enforcement. remember a significant amount of this $1.8 million, that source of the doubts about compliance, is what they are calling manage. we have countries like mexico that are contributing something that is already taking place, nothing already part of our understanding going forward. considerably less than what appears to be on paper. michael cohen was asked what adjustments there will be to oil supply in 2017. >> we think prices are likely to average $57 per year for brent,
on average higher in the first half then the second half and i think what we are going to see is in the first half of the year, you will see refinery runs increase. the demand will increase. plythe same time, crude sup is going to remain pretty level. you will have this big pop up in demand and basically level supply that will result in a decline in inventories, and arguably there will be places around the world, whether in where thosehe u.s., inventory draws are going to be quite severe and are going to lead to regional pockets of tightness. >> the flaw at the moment is this opec deal. ift is the guise for 2017 you don't have access to the bloomberg and you can't monitor these ships coming in and out of ports, you can't monitor what is going through the pipeline in russia. -- youou are a user of
are tricking a bottle of water out of a plastic cup, you won't see much of a change for your bottle of water. asas a retail user of gasoline,f you fill up tank at the pump, you will see a retail price bump, not only because of what is going on for gasoline, but we are going to be facing a colder winter the normal compared to last year. heating oil, fuel oil, all of that will show up. the increase we are talking about, the tightness we are talking about, is also going to show up in disposable income, where that disposable income ends up because prices are going to be higher. saudi arabia considering increasing retail gasoline and diesel prices in 2017 for the second year in a row. me it's part of the broader story and why the saudis came back to the table. for two years, they have
believed that u.s. supply was going to adjust much more quickly. and now finally after two years, they said it did not just as quickly as we thought. we have a problem in yemen, we have problems all over the middle east. we have a vision 2030 we want to implement. they already took measures last year to increase retail -- decrease fuel subsidies. this is another step along the path of reducing the burden of the government to actually pay for the social contract that they have with the people. >> is $57 enough to accomplish what the saudi's want to accomplish? is it enough to trigger a lot more shale production from this country? importantre the two questions. for saudi arabia, they believe 50 and something more certain or mid-50's and something more certain -- it is something they are more comfortable with than prices fluctuating between the mid-30's and high already's.
-- 40's. from their perspective, it does help. they do have a lot of different measures at their disposal. some of their more at risk opec members do not have that. on the other side, it's a big risk they faced because as prices do move into the high 50's are low 60's as we project in q2, that could lead to a much more robust u.s. shale response than what opec's bargaining for. that is the risk, that by doing this, they are eventually cutting off their market share retention or their ability to retain market share down the long term. worries about populism, the biggest concern for those investors. what is the biggest concern for next year? >> there's a couple things. china is front and center. i think the other risk is the issues concerning demand
generally, so as macroeconomic concerns related to china have a domino effect and the rest of the world have an effect on trade, the protectionist policies of a trump administration could conceivably lead to less demand for fuel, less demand for trade, and have long-term implications for global macroeconomic growth. is one the demand side of the biggest concerns that we have. the other concern for the oil market is the fact that you have some disrupted supply right now in the neutral zone. that is 1/2 million barrels of oil that is off-line and could come back. we have libyan production, it is on the verge of coming back. we don't think it is necessarily sustainable, but that is a real risk, that we get this influx of 1/2 of 1 million a day in supply, and it negates this opec cut rhetoric we are seeing from those countries. mark: barclays head of
commodities research there. the actelion merry-go-round continues. julie: it does, quite a surprise here. johnson & johnson saying it is in exclusive negotiations with the swiss drugmaker regarding a potential transaction. of a is here a little bit disclaimer in the j&j statement saying there can be no assurance any transaction will result from these discussions. j&j does not intend to make any additional comments regarding these discussions unless and until it is appropriate to do so or a formal agreement has been reached. we are seeing share reaction among the various players. johnson & johnson shares took a leg lower on the back of these headlines. actelion has an apr the traits here in the u.s., and those shares took a elg up. -- leg up. thethird player is sanofee, french martex -- pharmaceutical giant, which had been in late
julie: it's time for our global battle of the charts. mark barton versus emma chandra. emma? my chart today is all about dealmaking and how it is a for 2016,eller year which nobody was necessarily expecting, especially given last year's great year. if you look here, the deal count line is the yellow line. it, the dealook at
count is the third highest in this decade, and the volume is only surpassed by last year. no one was expecting this. expectations have been quite low. how political upsets like brexit have driven markets. now if you look at this, dealmakers telling us that next year can be even better, that we will see even more in the energy space. the talk about this year is it wasn't a very good deal for m&a. the numbers don't necessarily bear that out. the volatility when it comes to equities, the jpmorgan global asset --by 22% since trump's victory. the move, the measure of volatility, it is up by 10% since trump. the blue line, the v stocks, the european fear index, 42% lower since trump.
this is important. scratch beneath the surface. a four-year high relative to one month. are protecting against political volatility possibly next year. g #btv. julie: i really like this m&a chart. the story it tells is a surprising one and timely as well, given those j&j-actelion heads. i give it to the britain next to me. -- brit next to me. thank you for watching the european close. stay tuned for more "bloomberg markets." ♪
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, we are covering stories from aleppo to madrid this hour. we speak with the barclays capital in u.s. equity strategies about his 2017 outlook. blackstone closes its advisories fund after he lost 24% in 2016. state ofook at the private equity and hedge funds. we hear from el universities stephen roach on the state of the american consumer and how the chinese view the trumpet ministration. just returned from a trip to china. abigail doolittle joins us to look at the markets. looking at are modest declines for the dow, s&p 500, and nasdaq trade close to record, but no record so far today. the big story over the last few days has been whether or not the dow can hit that psychologically. this is an intraday chart. the dow came very cle