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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  January 4, 2017 9:00pm-10:01pm EST

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the majority of now banned rupee notes seen as a blow for the anticorruption campaign. bounce on wall street, setting the tone in the asia-pacific. fixingo digest, the yuan showing strength there. reading the highest in four years. here is sophie kamaruddin. sophie: asian markets extending wednesday's gain, this after the fed struck a dovish tone and its latest meeting minutes. take a look at what is going on with equity markets, the kospi heading lower, the hang seng adding 1%, southeast asian markets gathering pace,
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singapore leading the region. for thea up .3 percent day, the highest level in 19 months, but new zealand stocks in the red after searching on wednesday. the shanghai composite, some swings after that pmi data came out, and japanese shares fluctuating as the yen halted a three day drop overnight. 117, theack below dollar plunging against its g 10 peers. also, paring long dollar positions ahead of u.s. jobs data this week. the pboc strengthen the yuan parity, offshore yuan sticking below the level. set for the biggest gain since september, leading the charge in asia. , the philippine
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peso jumping to the strongest level and seven weeks, the ringgit coming off a 1998 low yesterday, and the rupiah joining that advance. the aussie dollar is looking at a third day higher, but could be vulnerable to testing a maiy low. 6,do have data on january but aussie weakness of boone of sorts. aussie services index, 57.7, the highest in a decade. gold set for a third day of gains. halt its advance, slightly lower as we did see an expectation that u.s. supplies are expected to fall and opec cuts underway. rishaad: thank you very much
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indeed. there.kamaruddin let's get back to those caixin numbers coming through. 53.5, this is a composite pmi that includes all sectors of the economy, services and manufacturing. this comes after the record high for the caixin manufacturing pmi on tuesday, so manufacturing services have always been strong. the services number for december comes in at 53.4 at 53.1 in november. rishaad: that's a 17 month high, that one? half, the year and a services industry keeps climbing. pmi hascial services never been an negative
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territory. the composite pmi the high since march 2013, 10th consecutive month of expansion, new orders the highest since march 2013, commodity prices on the uptick. they rose from november, highest since march 2011, so it looks as the easing is working into the economy, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises that the caixin pmi represents. rishaad: the annual liquidity crunch. >> there are a couple of annual liquidity crunches. one at the end of the calendar injecting the pboc cash and loosening things up. the benchmark seven-day repurchase rate falling 37 basis points yesterday, the most in a couple of years, but now because the lunar new year holiday comes
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earlier than normal at the end , traders are bracing for another cash crunch, a liquidity crunch, because companies and particularly households have that demand for cash. there is going to be another that of a cash crunch. now the lunar new year. anyway. >> we will talk counterfeits in the next 20 minutes. rishaad: including the most late and one you have ever seen. let's get the first word news. it has always been about the fed, and remain so. we have these latest edmonton at showing president-elect donald trump's plans, tax cuts, spending, could force rate hikes two, at a faster pace.
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the minutes showing policy makers saw an increase in the upside risks to growth forecasts, and many are concerned that they will have to quicken the pace ahead of inflation. traders are betting on two hikes , the first expected by june. picked a wallas street insider to be his top regulator. nominated him to head the sec. his opponentscked for their ties to goldman sachs and other wall street names. the former bsi banker convicted mdb fund is set 1 to appeal. he is the third former employee to found guilty in singapore and faces charges of money laundering. a former branch manager of a
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private bank has been indicted in the same inquiry. he faces 16 charges, and he intends to the guilty. the continued adoption of bitcoin in china and india has helped bring the digital currency to an all-time high. 1140 dollars and $.64 on wednesday, beating out every other currency, stock index, and commodity contract as an investment last year partly due to its popularity and countries that have capital or currency restrictions. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. rishaad: thank you very much indeed. for depositinge 500 and 1000 rupee bills passed in december, now all bannned notes have been deposited in
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banks. we will look at what this means for prime minister modi and his anticorruption drive. saidrendra modi has banning the high denomination notes of 1000 and 500 rupees was to crack down on black money, unaccounted money, counterfeit currency in circulation as well, but you have seen a lot more money being deposited in banks than the bank initially thought, which means there is less of this dodgy money hanging around in the system. thanks received 14.9 7 trillion rupees of old notes, $220 billion, by december 30. oft is 97%, $23 billion bills. the government said 15.4 trillion rupees taken out of circulation by the ban.
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they estimated 5 trillion would be left undeclared, possibly money that it illegally escape the tax net, so a bit of a blow to prime minister narendra modi and his crackdown on black money. dataad: we have economic suggesting this is beginning to take its toll on the economy. runs onan economy that cash, and if you don't have cash, you end up with a cash crunch, and that is not good. haidi: that is what we have seen, i cash crunch. consumption has been hit by the lack of ability to get hold of cash. in the latest data, services pmi , contracting for a second month . for december, the index came in november, a in
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number below 50 indicates contraction, so hotels and restaurants the worst performers. the slowdown is broad-based, and the rate of contraction of new orders increased. early in the week, we saw manufacturing data which shows that for the first time in a year, so that drags on the whole composite for india, the lowest since june 2013, indicating it is impacting the economy. we also have bloomberg data from a survey showing that the consensus for 6.9% growth for gdp. one of the world's fastest-growing economies, but revised down from 7.3% in november. concerns and that the de-monetization could deliver a
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sharp slowdown in the economy. tomorrow, the government first estimate for the year, so economists will be keeping her eyes on that. rishaad: thank you very much. let's tell you what we have coming up. donald trump's pick for the sec has sparked criticism. we will hear from the former head of the u.k. financial services authority. ♪
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theaad: a quick check of latest business flash headlines, apple investing $1 billion in softbank's new technology fund, adding its name to a growing list. softbank watching the $100 billion vision fund in london this year.
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the chief executive told donald trump that half the money would invested in the u.s., creating 50,000 jobs. some sun has set up a venture capital fund in the u.s. to make it invest easier in early-stage startups. the fund has made six investment so far, part of samsung next, an organization founded as a global animation center to work with young companies building emerging technologies. samsung says the venture means it can act more quickly. the laborsued by department for refusing to aovide compensation data in compliance evaluation. google was asked 16 months ago about itsinformation equal opportunity program and provide supporting documents. it faces losing official contracts if it fails to comply. right, well, here for his
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roadshow, having a look at the markets in the global state of play, the chief investment officer at the bank of singapore. everybody asking you the same question, what you guys are thinking about what happens in 2017, and that's why you are here as well. looking through your research, i thought what was interesting is that we have got everybody jumping on the bandwagon market-wise at least for now. we have seen this ramp up in equities, the dollar, but you are saying that donald trump's election has increased the risk of a recession. give us your take. >> there is a lot on the table that was not there before. we are moving from a world of comparative certainty. at the time, we thought it was very volatile. i think it will be more volatile next year than last. one of the things that might happen, in order to be
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successful in pushing through stimulus, the u.s. does not need a lot of fiscal stimulus. the economyqe and is running at a good clip and inflation is on the way up, so fiscal stimulus creates inflation and some bottlenecks, and the fed has to, something you have to think about, maybe not a 2017 problem, but very real for 2718 depending on how successful mr. trump is. rishaad: buying on the rumor, not the facts, that's what's going on right now, and these things have a long time line before they show any material benefit. market isgue the priced for perfection. >> that is the case we are making. the bulls have said these are the things that might work out well and they reacted on the basis of that. there are other things that
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might go wrong. the earnings forecast coming out now, we think they are pretty dicey. not just in the u.s., but globally. there is a certain element of hope being priced into what mr. trump has promised ignoring the downside, trade policy being one. rishaad: trade policy is a major concern in this part of the world. it isrd chartered saying a move from globalization to protectionism for 2017, variables in that >>, all these unknowns. is say protectionism, that something we would never have thought in the last decade was something we would be talking about and to analyze. rishaad: especially in an economy as open as the united states . >> precisely. mr. trump's he trade as a
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bilateral thing. if you look at the dependencies supply chain wise, china is short-term for the whole of asia, and that is potentially something that could be quite damaging for this region. thatme point, the hope is the u.s. learns or sees the old model is the one that fosters the most growth globally. protectionism is not a win-win. what takese point is its place? does this allow a picket which we have, which could be towards more geopolitical risks? perhaps creates a vacuum which another country just north of the border here can take advantage of tiered >> exactly right -- take advantage of. >> exactly right. can we the rest of the world trade away from the u.s.?
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the short term answer is no, but does open up the possibility for people, other countries, to take advantage of the u.s. resets the rules. the rules have been largely open trade, globalization, and movements of goods and services and people. if that gets restricted, someone else can fill the void. in the short-term, it will not be smooth sailing. that is the risk of the u.s. is running if they pull in and focused too much on the domestic side of the argument. rishaad: you are probably , this partr clients of the world, but you have been talking about the united states more so than normally because it is a big unknown, is it not? t of theut this par world aside from all of that? at the way we see
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growth and globalization and the effect of it over the last two decades, it has been extremely positive in asia, generally speaking, lifting people out of poverty and increasing incomes, and from a long-term portfolio investor point of view with the horizon you can tolerate some of the u.s. and think about this are very positive, taking that view, trade for the next few years might be a bit of a hamper if mr. trump succeeds, but the geopolitical situation, anding at this demographic the positive backdrop, we are very positive on asia for the patient investor. rishaad: dollar strength, does it continue? again, that is another thing that will be crucial here as well. it has negatives and positives. >> yes, if you look at the interest-rate differential, that tends to drive things and we have seen the u.s. curve steepen
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a lot. rishaad:well. it has negatives and positives. >> that's good news for the indigenous economy. >> especially the banks. thelly, not bad news for dollar. you have seen the dollar do well against the majors. our senses that we are getting closer to the end of that trade because it has been priced in, the majority of what you are going to see. ae market has taken on hawkish forecast in terms of short-term rates, so you have seen which are going to see from the dollar against the majors. the role trade still is dollar strong versus yen, because the trade balance and so forth. that might be something that the u.s. and the undermining of effective a trade war on emerging-market currencies, so the summary is we have seen the end of it against the majors, possible exception sterling, and for the emerging ones, dollar is best. rishaad: more weakness for sterling? >> yes.
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rishaad: right, coming up, alibaba taking action on fake goods, but can it succeed and try thing counterfeiters away? we have a special report on the way. ♪
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become theibaba has first e-commerce company in china to take legal action against sellers of counterfeit goods, suing to bank vendors it claims sold fake watches. that, butg to come to what is the significance of this particular story? >> the first time a major e-commerce company in china has in court suit the makers of counterfeit goods. vendors on the online
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marketplace for alibaba, sold counterfeit swarovski watches, about 125 watches were found. it comes after the u.s. trade representative's office put this list, marketplace on its not a list alibaba wants to be on. people ask me when china will get serious on intellectual property rights. be when china has its rights stolen, and in this case alibaba's reputational damage is at stake, so that is why they are taking this seriously. rishaad: how much has its reputation been affected? are seeking $200 million in damages. wantis what they say they to do. they are trying to expand into overseas markets, obviously the united states, where amazon, ebay and others are competitors.
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reputation is key to get credibility. august, theince year to august, they have taken down 380 million product listings and closed 80,000 stores in those 12 months through august, but the u.s. chamber of commerce says counterfeiting is huge business in china, and that is the problem. local governments often turn a blind eye to it because it implies a lot of people. it brings and 12% of china's exports. knock offs are still big business in china, still. rishaad: what is the most blatant knockoff you have seen? i don't have an image of it. >> i lived in china in the early silk streetstock market. the biggest one was a couple of years ago at the auto show when x7, a the land wind
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direct copy of the range rover evoke. rishaad: more to come. bitcoin. that is next. ♪ wow, x1 has netflix?
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only xfinity gives you more to stream to any screen. download the xfinity tv app today. >> it is 10:29 a.m. in hong kong. i am haidi lun with first word headlines. indonesia says it will allow j.p. morgan to do private business despite cutting official ties to the company. the finance ministry said the bank is still allowed to operate, but it will not have a contract with the authorities. suspended as the primary dealer of government bonds after it downgraded indonesian stocks to underweight. china's choking pollution has forced 52 cities and the north and east to issue health alerts. of smog has forced hundreds flight cancellations, closed schools, factories, and
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construction sites. and has been medium or high level in 186 chinese cities this week according to an update from the ministry of environmental protection. mustwagen has been told it say it misled investors over so-called diesel defeat devices. the company had ask a judge to dismiss a hearing over the emissions cheating scandal. the former vw chairman failed in his attempt to have the judge throw out shareholder claims against him. former barclays director is the first trader to plead guilty x rate breaking. he admitted rigging while working there, facing 10 years in prison and a $1 million fine.
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global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. rishaad: i am rishaad salamat. this is "bloomberg markets: asia". ,eading to that lunch break that time of day when traders in japan have an hour off. here is sophie. sophie: investors taking stock of what we got overnight, fed meeting minutes more dovish after the rate hike in december, feeding into that dollar. mixed picture and asia for now. the nikkei 225 down .25% as we head into that break. the hang seng up 1% as china listed stocks reversed losses we saw on wednesday, retro china nowothers in the green for
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-- petrochina and others in the green for now. southeast asia, vietnam joining the fray, marginally higher. the japanese stock rally fizzling as the yen gather strength. a closer look at japanese carmakers, a sector that has seen a decline on the nikkei 225. one of those dropping in that falling in the auto space, even after december auto sales for japanese carmakers in the u.s. beat estimates. 2%.ta growing this afternoon, we expect japanese vehicle sales for december, and carmakers a big and others.ford toyota saying it will take years
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before we see level five autonomy. i want to take a look at some equity movers we are watching today. falling, china dairy 2.2%, while china modern dairy rose 9.4% on the deal struck between the two. takata set for its biggest four-day gain, 22% earlier today. that is the view right now. lotaad: sophie, thanks a for that. looking at donald trump's plan said to boost the american economy with tax cuts and spending influencing the fed rate decision last month and could mean a faster rate of hikes in the year ahead. kathleen hays has the latest fed minutes. they tell us quite a bit, don't
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they? we have to dive deep. >> you have to dig, take out your magnifying glass and look hard, but there are some things striking in these minutes. the december 14 meeting, the last meeting of the year when they came through with one interest rate increase. most importantly, what we see in these minutes is the fed seriously weighing the possibility that donald trump may succeed, get the tax cuts, the spending boost, that this this is deregulated, speed up the rate of growth, may be speed up inflation, and upside risk. let's read what the fed said. almost all committee members indicated the upside risks to their forecast for growth had increased as result of prospects for more expansionary fiscal policies in coming years, a clear reference to donald trump's vision of what he wants
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to do for the u.s. economy. to talk minutes go on about a possible undershoot of unemployment, labor markets getting tighter, some kind of attention accelerating inflation concern, so let's jump into the bloomberg and see why they may be looking at it this way. unemployment, 4.6% going into the recession when the economy was running strong, 10% of the top, the peak in 2009. far right hand side, that is where we are now, back to 4.6%. in terms of what the fed is looking for, that's just about what they are looking for, so maybe we can see why they are watching this with a little more concern. what does it mean? potentially the fed will have to hike rates faster. this is not what they were signaling. they said many adjustments judge the risk of a sizable undershoot
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had increased somewhat and the committee might need to raise the federal funds rate more quickly than anticipated to limit the degree of undershooting and stem a potential buildup of inflationary pressures. that might sound kind of hawkish. with the dollar pulling back, traders are not looking at it that way. traders are saying the fed is watching this risk, but not doing anything about it, yet. they will wait and see. the federal reserve itself and its minute said that fed is still on a gradual path of rate hikes. into asianas we gone trading, it will be interesting to see if this dovish view of what the fed said in these minutes impacts europe and backed u.s. trading. theaad: this is a challenge fed has not faced in something like eight years or thereabouts, dealing with growth that is too fast rather than anemic, so what are we watching now?
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>> this week, we will watch that jobs report on friday. i would say it is probably looming larger now. payrolls expected to rise from00 in december, up 178,000, so nice and steady. the unemployment rate at 4.6% is forecast at 4.7%, but what if it falls? they will be much more focused on that rate now that the federal reserve is as well. even after these minutes, let's jump into world interest-rate projections. far left hand side of the screen, halfway down, june 14, the first meeting, the first time you see the odds of a rate hike going above 50%, nearly 73%.
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then if you interpret the rest of the numbers, you realize they don't see another rate hike until december, that is only two. they are not even on board for the possibility that they might be raising rates three times this year, so they do not seem quite convinced. the bond market like the fed is waiting to see. so what we will be watching trump, what he proposes, how the republican house and senate get on board, what they agreed to come and how quickly not only do these steps get taken, but how quickly we see them filter through the economy. rishaad: thank you, kathleen. kathleen hays on fed watch for us. let's take a look at bitcoin, trading at an all-time high as the currency turns eight years old. what is going on here? rises when there is concern about traditional
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currencies or assets. china has been tightening capital controls, and venezuela india and have banned circulation of some bank notes, and their is concern about traditional cast remittances, so this has boosted demand for bitcoin. rishaad: when you get a situation like that, people piled into gold, don't they? is bitcoin becoming a haven? >> bitcoin tends to be volatile, but people see the currency as something more immune than gold, and that has made it a popular alternative asset. an idea of hows big of a role china plays in this market. accounts for the majority of trading in bitcoin. chinese exchanges do not charge transaction fees, but with the , assetsreciating
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falling, capital controls tightening, bitcoin is becoming a popular way for chinese people to hedge the yuan and take money out of the country. rishaad: what are we going to see next? >> everyone in the bitcoin industry is bullish. rishaad: they have to be. >> anyone used to watching traditional markets has to be concerned about the gains we have seen recently. was this that coin high was late 2013, when crisis rapidly plunged afterwards news ofof a hack and tighter chinese controls, so anything like that could disturb the rally once again. rishaad: thank you so much for that. right, there we go, i look at u.s. carmakers. they have got themselves a bit of a christmas present, a
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seventh straight annual sales gain, but there may be bumps ahead on the road. su keenan brought us this from new york. su: automakers were in the spotlight in a big way wednesday, likely to translate into the thursday session. tesla met its deadline for battery production, giving a pop to the stock. gm, ford, other automakers writing a big rally, record sales for 2016. general motors led, exceeding expectations, leading to a seventh straight annual gain for the automakers. that is indeed a record. analysts are cautioning that we could see shrinking auto sales in 2017. after the bell, there was some big news on retailers, kohl's in macy's, both plunging extended hours trading as they announced a disappointing
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a cutting as and forecast going forward. macy's was down close to 10%, cut its outlook, and announced it will cut 6200 jobs, closing 100 nonperforming stores. y are further cutting management to reduce costs. as far as kohl's, the stock down 13% in extended trading, similar story of a disappointing holiday with weaker sales than anticipated. kohl's cutting its fiscal 2016 forecast for its initial eps was seen up to four dollars a share, to seeing eps from $3.60 -- $3.65, a big disappointment for investors. do you trust donald
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trump? we will put that question to our guest and hear his take on the president collects promises. -- president-elect's promises. ♪
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trump's picked a wall street insider to be his top regulator, despite railing against the financial industry during the campaign. to nomination of jay clayton head the sec has sparked criticism. the former head of the u.k. financial services authority says the approach to regulation is more important here. >> clearly donald trump have , having campaigned as an anti-wall street, anti-d.c., drain the swamp type of campaigner, he is a complete
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inside her. ishave always known that he an insider and establishment figure. there is nothing necessarily wrong with that. sometimes you do need the fox to en coup, buth the main thing will be what would be the approach to regulation. in after then put financial crisis was higher capital requirements, so that is where it is crucial that there is no undermining of that. those major sets of reforms enacted through dodd-frank, but agreed internationally, i think they have made the global financial system safer than it was, so that is the crucial thing, to make sure there is no backsliding from that. >> do you believe there will be? president trump has campaigned on completely dismantling dodd-frank. do you think things like the
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capital requirements will be rolled back? >> i don't know. how does one know what donald trump is going to do as president given the many things he has said? certainly, there is no good case for a major deregulation. anyidea that america or other economy is held back by too much regulation is a fantasy , a childish approach to the economy which has no justification whatsoever. there are lots of things holding back the global economy, and one thing trump has said he will do, which is some sort of fiscal stimulus, could be favorable, the ticket lady if it is focused towards infrastructure spending rather than tax cuts for the ,ich, so there are some things the balance of economic policy for the last five years, has been wrong, and fortuitously his approach on fiscal stimulus could help deal with that, but the idea that there is a pop to
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gold at the end of the deregulation agenda is just a fantasy. rishaad: the latest business flash headlines. china dairy agreeing to buy china modern. million,valued at $900 7% above china moderns close on wednesday. it will hold about 91% of china modern. china modern of nearly 5%, and a move to the downside of nearly 1.5% there. newng rounded off 2016 with orders, reaching a deal with general electric, the upgraded 737 jets, 75 planes valued at more than eight in dollars at list prices and boosted firm orders by gm's leasing division to 170 aircraft.
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boeing shares on the way up on the news, over 1%. switch onflipped the it it's a plant and nevada. the factory is producing its first power storage products in the upcoming model three car. employed, with another 4000 expected this year, doubling production of lithium-ion batteries when it is fully up to speed. mazda, suzuki, and peugeot will join a consortium to build an industry standard via an open source platform. chata has not teamed up yet with either service.
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china bulls expecting positive surprises to drive growth this year. we will talk about what it means , next. ♪
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rishaad: this is "bloomberg markets: asia." i am rishaad salamat. china's policy makers say they will except slower growth as the economy continues to stabilize.
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some forecasters say growth may be surprisingly good. kevin hamlin joins us now from beijing. are the polls going to be proved right here? >> possibly so. year ago,ember a things looked worse than they do now in china. there was lots of pressure on the yuan depreciation and capital outflows, and there were quite a few people protecting a half -- predicting a hard landing, imminent implosion, and a hard year for china. as it turned out, policymakers stabilize to the ship and growth is heading for 6.7%. right now, economists are optimistic, revising up forecasts for the first quarter and hold year. longmies emerge from a time of factory deflation,
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consumption has held up well in 2016, based mainly on writing wages, which has boosted demand for financial services, health care, education, tourism. front, there is possibly a tailwind from exports if the u.s. economy is buoyed by incoming president trump's plans to boost infrastructure spending and maybe cut taxes. has given the government and of confidence to say it might even be flexible 2020, so6.5% target to so far so good. what parts of, an upsidey could he surprise this year? >> yeah, i think we have to remember the backdrop is that
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there will be a communist party congress, where there will be a major leadership reshuffle. year, the party puts extraordinary emphasis on stability. that means if growth were to show signs of significant slowing, they would put their foot on the stimulus pedal again. the same inore of terms of strength and consumption. wages and wage growth are slowing of little bit, but still strong, and that is boosting demand for services in the new economy. parts of the new economy are still booming. on the external front, the possibility of confrontation with donald trump on trade, and ironically it could well be that if he manages to growth -- boost growth in the u.s. economy that china would benefit from that. kevin, ok, out of the
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people you have been talking to, what is the balance of opinion about the bulls, bears, and the outlook for the economy in the year ahead? a i think it looks like fairly stable year, and because of the communist party congress, the government is not willing to tolerate growth much below 6.5%, maybe a little bit, but it is mindful of the buildup of that and external risks from confrontation with trump. it is also not likely to provide to much stimulus. stability is the keyword here. that is paramount for 2017. rishaad: thank you very much indeed for that, kevin hamlin there. right, what we have on the way out of bloomberg markets: asia, david updates you, as well as shery. shery: the conversation on china
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and the chinese yuan at new lows. to theing strengthened most, but what does that mean is the currency depreciates? we talked to a bearish analyst on the currency. issuance in the market could be rising by 50% this year. we are counting down to the open in india, as we see indians depositing bills outlawed last year for prime minister narendra modi, all of that coming up on "bloomberg markets: asia". join me then. ♪
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announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." charlie: ian bremmer is here, the president of the consulting firm, eurasia group. every year, they publish a list of top global risks. they published a list, 2017, the geopolitical recession. welcome back. i don't know if it's going to be a happy new year or not. what do you think? you talk of a global recession

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