tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg January 5, 2017 10:00am-11:01am EST
vonnie: we are going to take you from san francisco to london and cover stories out of washington, moscow, and dubai in the next hour. first, u.s. economic data crossing the bloomberg. julie hyman is here. julie: we have the isn nonmanufacturing composite. the largest portion of the u.s. economy coming in at 57.2. 56.8% was the estimate. coming in ahead of estimates. more positive economic data has come as a late. service industries coming in faster than forecasted. sincethe highest level october 2015. seeing a mixed picture in stocks as we get these numbers. this was the picture and what it looked like going into it. the dow and the s&p, very little changed.
strength and technology overall. for the moment, we are not seeing an improvement in stocks based on these numbers. i'm going to take a look at the bloomberg, as well. a looks like we are not updating the dow. ticking very slightly into the green, actually. it is up by about two points. the s&p is up -- off by about 0.5 points. still a little changed. still of 0.25% on the nasdaq. -- 0.25% on the nasdaq. the focus continues to be on retailer. strengthen some of the retail stocks yesterday and today, we are going decidedly in the opposite direction. consumer discretionary down only 0.25%. there is strength in media stocks. real estate is one of the worst performing groups today because some of the mall wreaths are
trading lower. individually, macy's and kohl's are leading the declines. kohl's is down 17.5%. as theys down 13% announced plans to cut another 6200 jobs, bringing total cuts to around nearly 10,000. they already talked about plans to shut 100 stores. saw a decline on a same-store basis in november and december of a little more than 2%. really seeing a struggle in retail. kohl's will likewise, coming out decrease-store sales in november and december. both companies are cutting full-year profit forecast and we are seeing a downdraft in other retailers. the worst performing stocks all retail. also onm and l brands the list. macy's says a lot of the weakness was from accessories, specifically watches and handbags. you can also look at coach, kate
spade that are seeing weakness, michael cores. there is a ripple effect from the suppliers to the department stores, as well as broad weakness across retail as we continue to see a secular shift within the retail industry away from bricks and mortar, away from department stores to online. commoditiescheck on head of the weekly inventory numbers that we will get at 11:00. crude oil prices are higher. gold also trading higher, continuing a recent winning streak. mark: retail, big decline or yesterday. second-biggest decliner today. we are up, we were down, we were up, we are down. little changed for the second day after the bull markets on tuesday. this is the big gainer. look at this persimmon. the biggest homebuilder in the u.k.
the biggest gain since july. shares up by 7%. and 8% rise in revenue. forward sales rate. executive spoke to us earlier. he said the second half of 2016 was particularly strong. this was a stock that fell by 44% after brexit, how things have changed. homebuilders offer significant value according to deutsche bank. pmi data continues to sell. reflecting the economic strength. these are the big three. services is white. can traction, blue. manufacturing, yellow. strongest in 2.5 years. the indications are that it grew by 0.5% in the quarter. this is a great chart that highlights the data beats we
have seen in the u.k. this is the bloomberg economic surprise index. every figure above zero shows that data is beating estimates. white line is the six -- fixed manufacturing index. is low,uring production but it should follow the pmi figures as they do tend to follow each other closely and it does lag the pmi data. the economy is in good shape post-brexit. will 2017 be a different story? vonnie: a stronger pound, as well, versus u.s. dollar. let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. at least that has more. alisa: an explosion believed to have been caused by a car ball wounded some 10 people. it occurred in front of a courthouse used by judges and prosecutors. two of the suspected attackers were killed in a shootout with police. officials are looking for a third suspect.
british into european union politician nigel farage will attend donald trump's inauguration. he says he was invited by mississippi governor phil bryant . he led the anti-eu u.k. independence party until november and was a key player in britain's vote to leave the bloc. top u.s. intelligence officials say russia poses a major and growing threat to u.s. government, military, and commercial operations. national intelligence director james copper and other officials are testifying at a senate armed services committee focused on russia's meddling in the u.s. presidential election. they say russia is among at least 30 nations developing capabilities to launch cyber attacks. tomorrow, president-elect donald trump will be briefed by the cia and fbi into the probe on russia's hacking. he has already criticized their findings and we will bring you
headlines over the next few hours. senate democrats want an investigation into the finances of president-elect donald health andd for human services, tom price. he traded more than $3000 of shares in$300,000 of wellh companies influencing laws that may have affected the price of his stocks. global news 24 hours per day. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thanks. to the markets now. global equities have been on the rise since the victory of donald trump. our next guest is boosting his cash holdings. joining us from our san francisco bureau is david from artisan partners. .e oversees every $3 billion
thanks for joining. you are boosting cash positions when people seem to be running gangbusters into this u.s. equity market. why? what is causing you to step back? david: thank you for having me today. i think it is important to mention that we are value investors. we look to purchase companies at a big discount to their intrinsic value. naturallyspeaking, as equity markets are on the increase, we typically become more sellers of securities and buyers of securities, given our price sensitivity. inhave had a nice increase the equity markets pretty consistently over the last eight years. some of that driven by earnings growth and economic growth in the u.s., but a lot of that driven by lower interest rates, ultralow interest rates, andriy leveraging of the global economy. if that turns around in the
other direction, that could make it a tough time for equities generally speaking, which is value investors, we would welcome very much because it creates opportunities for us to invest more capital. vonnie: david, many would say that sectors are still undervalued, even after this runoff. i'm thinking financials, even. where are you seeing value left? david: we think that in individual situations, there are securities that offer us good value. our portfolio reflects those. as you mentioned, the banking industry, especially in europe, still suffers from a lot of negative sentiment surrounding several issues. the political bashing of banks continues. there continues to be uncertainty regarding the regulatory process. that are a number of banks we do own in europe that we think are significantly
undervalued. mark: and david, let's get to them. ubs is among them. is there a temptation to love this bank in with some of the more fragile lenders in europe? david: there is a temptation to do that. speaking, with the advent of eds, where all banks get lumped into the same trading patterns, a good, healthy organization like ubs, it is the largest wealth manager in the trillion has $1.1 worth of client assets that they manage and a very low capital intensive operation, that is worth a very high multiple of earnings. while it gets lumped in with other banks that are much more capital intensive, much more regulatory driven in terms of the amount of capital that they must retain, and, as a result, it trades at a multiple priced to books, it does not really reflect the underlying quality of its business. mark: i've got a chart here
theh shows samsung share of south korean stock market. it is up to 20%. in 2016, thea year stock rose by 43%. has it managed to salvage its reputation after the note 7 debacle? i know that you have said it probably could have averted that problem and that a number of issues you would like to see the company address. do you see evidence it is doing that? , even thoughably had share prices have tremendous performance last year, the stock remains very cheap. this is a $225 billion market cap company. it is the largest tech company in the world by revenue. it carries 25% of its market cap in cash and securities and backing those outcome of the
stock still trades at about six times earnings two years out. the stock is incredibly undervalued. it does have issues in terms of managing its capital effectively and effecting a smooth transition from one generation to another. that is very korean-specific. we think we can help them out with that transition in the way that we vote for some of the structural changes that the company needs. once they effect those, i think that the company will be in a position to better allocate capital and to return more cash to shareholders, which would just be cream on top of the cheap valuation that the shares trade at. vonnie: do you hedge for currency fluctuations at all? the yuan has been depreciating. david: the yuan we think is trading within a range of fair value. we think we are not hedging our exposure to the korean won. what about emerging
markets generally? we saw huge moves in china overnight like we did last january. what do you see for china? i know it is not a big part of your geographic allocation at the moment. david: it is not a big part. for the main part of what we do, that comes down to an inability to find securities that are significantly undervalued and meet some of the other strict criteria that we use to look at securities. china has its own series of , notwithstanding the headline growth numbers, which are suspect at best. china has been growing on the back of a very large and rapid credit expansion that is getting less and less efficient and driving underlying economic growth. many of the companies, the larger listed companies, are state-owned enterprises. where the state would have some different objectives were we would. there are some companies, such as baidu, that we are very
bullish on. they could perform very well over the next few years. mark: can you tell us about what happened post-brexit? did you buy u.k. plc? are you still buying u.k. plc? david: yes, we are buying some u.k. plc. it is a mainly centered on the banks. we own two banks. lloyds, which is probably the strongest retail bank operator isthe u.k., and rbs, which in a different part of its restructuring cycle. both banks are trading at or very significant discount, in the case of rbs, to book value. both have incredible core franchises that once you remove fines and restructuring charges and look at the earnings power of these operations should be able to generate 13%-50% r.o.e.'s, which would warrant a
price-to-book of 1.3-1.5 times. there is a considerable opportunity to make money in these banks over the next couple years. mark: david, thanks for giving us all your thoughts. david samra, portfolio manager at artisan partners. vonnie: let's take a look at a live shot of the u.s. senate armed services committee. ony are holding a hearing allegations of russia hacking. we will be digging into that story next. deputy from director james clapper. many more. this is bloomberg. that incident was 2014, 2015. ♪
mark: live from london and new york, i'm mark barton. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn this is "bloomberg markets." communityntelligence is defending its conclusions that russia was the twine -- behind hacking of the u.s. presidential election. the ap has reported that president-elect donald trump has briefing on the hacking allegations. summarize what we know from the conclusion so far. >> we are hearing from the director of national intelligence, james clapper, and the head of the national security agency, admiral mike rogers. they are being questioned by senator john mccain, who is from the same party as president elect donald trump, but is asking them about russia's interference in the elections and what kind of threat russia will continue to pose in
cyberspace. we are hearing from the intelligence officials that they are standing by their october 7 conclusion that russia did interfere with the u.s. election and they are saying that this is going to continue to be a threat in the future. vonnie: in recent years, they are saying the kremlin is assumed a more aggressive cyber posture. they are definitely hawkish on russia and what this meant in the election, even. >> exactly. but as senator mccain just said a few minutes ago in the hearing, this is not about questioning the outcome of the election, which is something that president-elect donald trump has said, that there is not enough evidence. the intelligence community has come up repeatedly and said that russia did interfere. he is saying he is not disputing the election, but he is saying we need to get to the bottom of this. the director of national intelligence, as you just mentioned, has said that he will be releasing a review of the
investigation into the interference through the president. next week, he said there will be a public version, unclassified, that will be released, so that everyone can get more information about what happened. mark: i want to listen to a soundbite yesterday from the former cia director jim walls late. he talked about the appropriateness of trump's tweets about the intelligence community. >> this is a minor little blip. the intelligence business is full of controversy and arguments about assumptions and why did you do this, why did you issue that then, what do you mean by weapons of mass destruction, on and on. hiccup.a hick up -- throughnald trump recent tweets about the controversy. basically this is what he said. he said, "the dishonest media
likes saying i'm in agreement with julian assange -- wrong, i simply state what he states. it is up to the people to decide." is there a risk that donald agenciesl alienate the he is going to count on for vital briefings when he is president? >> there are a few things going on. on the one hand, there is the risk that you are setting up donald trump will being relying on these agencies for intelligence when he gets into office january 20. at the same time, you have former officials saying that intelligence officials are apolitical, they will do their job, and eventually donald trump will come around and understand why they are valued. at the same time, we have these repeated comments he has been making publicly. in the hearing today, senator john mccain just asked some of
the top u.s. intelligence officials, should we attach any credibility to julian assange? , the director of national intelligence who oversees the 17 intelligence agencies in the u.s. said, not in my view. publicly, you are not hearing intelligence officials saying, donald trump, we don't agree with you, but at the same time, they are standing by their own conclusions. internally, the question yet to see is could there be some friction or tension down the road when these two entities have to work together, when the executive branch and the intelligence agencies have to work about big -- together about big decisions? mark: thank you for joining us from our washington bureau. we will continue to monitor that senate hearing over the next couple of hours. still ahead, we are going to look at some of the big market movers today, including sears, closing more stores and selling craftsman to stanley black & decker.
mark: i'm mark barton. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. let's head straight to julie hyman, she is looking at sears, one of the big movers today. julie: sears raising yet more cash. it is selling its craftsman tool brand to stanley black & decker for about $900 million. ceo ed lanford recently agreed rt loan the company -- lampe recently agreed to loan the company some money. stanley black & decker is also rising surprisingly. .ears bought black & decker estimates over the past couple
years up with the value somewhat higher. sears will be able to get some royalties potentially under this deal. also looking at another deal, this one among a couple of researchers. , this is for $2.6 billion in cash and shares. gartner is i.t. focused. ceb specializes in research. we will now have a bigger services offer. $3.3 billion including debt is the price on this. ceb rises 22%. mark: thanks a lot. still ahead, we will hear from the aol ceo tim armstrong. we will let him -- ask them about the acquisition of yahoo! by verizon. ♪
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>> syria statement yesterday 10 people have been killed in a car bombing in a government how is the town. dozens more were wounded. no group immediately claimed responsibility for the bombing. islamic state and other militants are not part of a broad truce the government and opposition agreed on last week. president-elect trump 's picked to be secretary of revealed his cour assets in more than one designations. if the senate confirms tillerson, he will recuse himself for four years . from exxon. keepays the u.s. should sanctions to maintain pressures on countries to take destabilizing action.
he says global economic integration leads to better outcomes in isolation and protectionism -- than isolated and protectionism. 's topntagon ste weapons buyer -- president obama backed the program and president-elect donald trump has also signaled his support. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. mark: coming up, the likelihood of a hard brexit is increasing. we will hear from lawrence cramer on why he thinks the eu and u.k. are too far apart to make progress in brexit negotiations. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: you are watching bloomberg. i'm vonnie quinn. mark: this is your global business report. raise $100 million for global technology fund. it may have found a major investor. vonnie: vanguard group says $305 billion were tracked last year. the ceo tells bloomberg how they did it. mark: a look at how private equity firms turn the u.s. housing crash into an investment opportunity. bank isdeutsche exploring ways it can avoid $7.2 billion settlement. the german letter supposed to give release to borrowers.
the firms would buy bad mortgages from options. mark: vanguard group, the world's largest mutual fund manager says it had anyone total that some firms need decades to reach. the chief executive spoke with bloomberg about whether u.s. stock valuations have run too far too fast. >> i think the market has gotten a little bit ahead of itself. if you look at where valuations are in the developed world in particular, u.s. and the rest of the developed world, they are at a pretty high level. over the nexties decade of returns being somewhat lower than the long-term historical average is pretty high. by no means certain, but pretty high. mark: macy's cut its forecast and send with illuminate 6200 job -- said it would eliminate
6200 jobs. in novemberll 2% and december from eight years ago. made $15 billion in global technology fund. they want to raise $100 billion. saudi arabia may come up with half of that. apple has said it will invest $1 billion. vonnie: time now for our bloomberg quick check, where you can find context and background on issues of interest. after the housing bubble past, millions of americans lost their homes, and property values plunged. many saw this as a tragedy. some investors saw it as an opportunity. a private firm quickly bought tens of thousands of homes at discount, most of them out of foreclosure. here is the situation. in the first quarter of 2016, the nation's homeowner
ship rate was -- the number of renter occupied units had increased by 5 million since 2011. many landlords of single-family homes only own a few units, but the big investors, purchasers, and lenders have had a big impact on the market. rock, and, black another offer financing looking to expand their home owning. blackrock and blackstone built its rental home business with an advantage few buyers could match. black box invitation homes subsidy quickly became the single-family landlord. raised $20 billion to buy as many as 200,000 homes to rent. the firms clearly played a role
in property values. damageddases, fixing vacant houses with tennis. outsiders stopped up the best bargains. the firms have hired thousands of workers to maintain the properties. it is a big logistical challenge than the owner of an apartment complex. housing advocates have called for federal intervention. they complain low-income homebuyers are being shut out of the market, will be that the need for big profit will push up rent and are skeptical about the real estate money machine will end well. you can read more about housing and all of our quick takes on the bloomberg. head bloomberg.com for more stories. mark: a hot topic from wall street to washington. a u.s. senate hearing is underway on capitol hill to
determine whether the russians hacked the presidential election. yahoo! announced it suffered its second major data breach. looking to question whether verizon will follow through with its acquisition of the company. for more, we are joined by cory johnson. cory: that's right. interesting times we have with yahoo! and verizon very top of my right now. we are joined by tim armstrong at ces. year? you go to ces every i think the first time we met was at ces six years ago. >> i miss you here this year. i will make sure i give you a full report of what i saw at begin can debate it in san francisco sometime soon. we come to ces for two reasons. we are the digital partner for ces.
we have the best of ces awards and cover the show, the most complete digital coverage of the show. the second reason is we are here to meet with customers and partners. we have 40 meetings over the next 48 hours with everybody from sports leagues to some of the largest advertisers in the world. in really is a place for us to come and learn about what will happen this year, learn about the tech trends, and price to push what we have the company we have a new ad system and a set of products, which allow companies to build brands online and on mobile. that is our big news this week. we announced this morning it will be talking to partners this week. cory: with the yahoo! hack investigations, what is the status of that? there have been two vague hacks we -- big hacks we have learned about in the last year. tim: the yahoo! deal for us is
strategic. it will close the process split into two areas. one is integration and strategy planning with marissa and the executive team at yahoo!, with have gone well. we have close relationships with them. the second is the information about averages and what the effect of that is. verizon handling the breach research with yahoo!. yahoo! is going through their investigation. we don't have comments on that because they have not finished the investigation yet. we are on track and hopeful the deal will close overall, but we will know more in the first half of this year. the yahoo! team is doing a thorough investigation. i am sure they will have more on it in the time period in front of us. cory: is it possible these series of hacks and the public's knowledge of them has any effect
on the brand and damages the brand of yahoo! it anyway? tim: i think that is one of the things yahoo! is looking at and will continue looking at, the total effect of the breach and what the output of them are. we have a viewpoint on that as well. from the standpoint of where we sit right now heading into 2017, our strategy is clear heading to 2020. yahoo! is one beast of that strategy overall. get information about the breed, we will update people on that, and yahoo! will as well. and thet our goals are tasks they are getting done with yahoo!, it remains on track. the breach is a piece of information research and investigation that is ongoing. cory: i think the size of the business of yahoo! is not properly understood generally because it is a very big business. so many users.
when you look at that asset, what do you see that holds such value because the noise and the concern of the breach has dominated the discussion. what you see as the underlying asset in his value? -- its value? tim: we live in a world with hundreds of billions of dollars and consumers coming online that are digital first. yahoo! has one of the largest footprints in the world on the consumer side and has a very sizable advertising business and e-commerce business in asia. when we standpoint, think of a combined asset over one billion consumers and billions of dollars in ad revenue and having a footprint in mobile added with verizon, which is strategic. targeting and getting the mobile consumers is huge. the breach information and investigation, but from a business strategy point, especially when you look to the next five or 10 years, the
assets coming together represent a very unique opportunity, very unique scale. we have gone from company consolidations to industry consolidations. verizon has been very forward thinking, very clear, and very clear on the execution of where they think the world is going in media, wireless, and mobile. we are excited about it, yahoo!, the team overall. there is one issue that needs to be resolved. through that from my site on the integration side, the strategy remains in tact. is interesting the strategy of this consolidation is different from at&t to verizon. when i look at the verizon site, i see you guys putting together a big pile of assets. techcrunch, yahoo! sports, pulse, aol, all of these smaller pieces of content but a kaleidoscope of them. at&t seems to be going great with time warner, hbo.
contrastif you could those two strategies for me. tim: sure. i know the time when this strategy well. i was with time warner. don't know their strategy and a second with business model is, but i own a verizon business model and the verizon plan and the aol plan, which is the vet on where the future is going, which is very strong connectivity with 5g a connecting everything and everybody with fiber and speed and wireless connectivity. the second piece is really digital consumption of content. to have to look far and wide see how is of the linear tv landscape has changed to a digital focused consumer. if you contrast the strategies, that digital focus, mobile focus, content strategy verizon has put into place i think is a
strategy.g after spending 20 years in silicon valley and new york and across the globe, we want to put we bet with verizon because think digital and mobile and the connectivity 5g will offer will be a tremendous asset overall. you have two big companies, two strategies, and a lot of room for tailwind in the future of growth so it will be interesting to see where we end up five or 10 years from now. feel very confident in what verizon strategy is an verizon has done a good job at executing long-term strategy, so i do not have any doubt we will be in the running a big players in the future. cory: thank you very much. we appreciate your time. tim armstrong from verizon. vonnie: thank you for that. we have more interviews from ces throughout the day, including a conversation with mary dollar at
live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york and london, i'm vonnie quinn. mark: i mark barton. this is "bloomberg market" on bloomberg television. the likelihood of the hard brexit is increasing according to moritz kramer. earlier, he spoke to "bloomberg east."middle he warned that to cheap arteries at the negotiating table are far apart on procedure and policy. >> the likelihood of a hard brexit has been increasing over the last couple of months. hard brexit meaning the u.k.
would leave the eu without any substitute agreement in place. the reason for that is really twofold. the first one is simple. it is a lack of time. this is an awfully short amount of time to negotiate a complex web of relationships. the second is the two starting positions of the negotiations to be so far apart and struggling to see any overlap where compromises can be struck. u.k. seems to be saying that we want to control immigration, we want to not be under the jurisdiction of the european side. seems to be side suggest suggesting the eu is not a buffet where you can pick and choose what you want. you have to take it all or nothing. if you are to control your borders on immigration, that means customs union and the single market are going to be available to you. how you can square that circle is uncertain to me. it seems to be going rather
slowly in terms of the u.k. defining its strategies. >> the thing is this is political positioning, isn't it really? people are not going to show their hands before negotiations begin. at the end of the day, we have to wait until article 50 is presented. moritz: may be. i think they are selling their hand. they want full immigration control. i think it is not a secret that this is going to be very very difficult to reconcile with ax ccess a free trade to the eu, but what many people overlook is not so much that trade and goods and cars and stuff. what matters to the u.k. even more is the services because the u.k. is a major service exporter. if you get free trade on britain's services, this would benefit countries like
germany, italy, france. the u.k. is much more dependent on selling services, financial services, business services. that is their strength, the comparative advantage of the u.k.. there is no preset arrangement to adopt. i think the time is really very short. we have not really seen any road formulation of the the u.k. wants to travel. mark: s&p ratings chief moritz raymer on "bloomberg markets the middle east" a little earlier. i want to bring in bloomberg brexit editor simon kennedy. happy new year. swift in replacing ivan rogers. does that show she is control of the situation? simon: i think so. there were suggestions she had to do it quickly but it shows a
weakness that you us to close-out talks with a vacuum at the heart of brexit planning. by appointing tim barrow, see avoid haste as well as speed. on the flipside, she is a career politician, diplomat. than is a bit more calm there has been for the last 40 hours. mark: to have more of an opportunity later this month to outline her vision probably for the first time when she gives a major speech. simon: that is another thing the resignation of ivan rogers 1000 word plus letter. still a lot of holes in the brexit planning. brexit means brexit and other soundbites have held together for a little while, but she needs to start firming up what she means by brexit.
there is talk now there will be a speech soon where she will start to lay out what she means by brexit. vonnie: from one of the direct does itrom the letter, matter who she appoints if she does not have a plan for how to conduct these negotiations, how to get out of the european union, invoke article 50, and so on? what does that plan get finalized? simon: how much she uses him is in question. he would not be used in or his advice was not being heated. -- heeded. the job of ambassadors is to give advice and give the unvarnished truth and allow the minister to make the decision. ivan rogers was is a mistake about brexit. interestingly, tim barrow talking about how he will do his best to give britain the best
deal he can. sounded a bit more optimistic about the ability. when that plan from brexit comes about, who knows? the negotiating strategy is not something she plans to rush out. dryplans to keep her powder going into those talks but we will see some signs from her in the next weeks or so and when article 50 is invoked of the parameters of what she is fine to achieve. she does not want to reveal her hand to close to the negotiations. mark: thanks for joining us today. >> larry was pre-brexit. has: larry's christmas gift betrayed his voting sensibilities. vonnie: thanks.
for more, you can always look up our principle is in, which is -- bulletin, which is posted every day. plans to overhaul intelligence agencies are "false." the wall street journal is reporting that david is the top editor for the treasury department in international affairs role. european close is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: we are going to take you from washington to dubai. we will cover stories out of new york, london, and asia today in the next hour. we have our eye on oil. weekly inventory data just crossing the bloomberg. julie, you have the details. julie: a very large drop in oil inventories. 7.0 5 million barrels. the drop that was estimated was only 1.7 million barrels. the recent build in oklahoma, so sometimes when we have seen that disparity, it does not have the predicted effect on oil prices. inventory gasoline rising more than estimated. 8.3 million barrels. distillates up. that disconnect might not be