tv Best Of Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg January 5, 2017 11:00pm-12:01am EST
>> it is an here in hong kong. a record weekly rally. tona's central bank raised its daily fixing less than projected. a two and half -- 2.5% surge in the last two days. goldman sachs says it may be the time to once again that against the yuan. australia, well, recording its first trade surplus in almost three years. as higher chinese demands helped boost prices. it is the biggest positive trade
balance turnaround since april of 2010. china may step up scrutiny of u.s. companies on the tensions with donald trump. it could be subject to tax or tycoonst probes as the takes a punitive measures against chinese goods. someone is accusing donald trump of an iron curtain of protectionism. let us have a look at what we have going on. we bring the world to you in about 120 countries with 2600 journalists. a quick snapshot of the trading. hong kong is up at the moment. up 0.4%. shanghai in the opposite direction. ♪ welcome to the blue --
best of bloomberg markets: middle east. here are the major headlines. gulf countries brace for impact from the stronger dollar which good of businesses from tourism to real estate. opec's deal. rising crude prices are ready seems to be improving sentiment across the region. rings at that worst for turkey after another terrorist attack and hit the economy hard. $100 million in investments from international investors to upgrade its infrastructure. let us get to our interview. from the officer at standard and poor's. if you look at the u.s. economy, it looks like an economy in fairly good shape. the years, you had employment gains, a good recovery, slow but gradual.
much better for example than what we are seeing in europe. in that sense, it is not a surprise that we are seeing the divergence in the monetary trends in europe and japan. to be this is interesting seen in the context of the change at the helm of the white house. administration is coming in and fiscal expansion is one of the hallmarks of the policy of agenda that seems to be shaping up. of course, if you have a fiscal expansion and fiscal stimulus in an environment where you might think you're getting close to balance and full employment, this is something that puts the central bank on guard. that is not a surprise at all. you are talking about a bifurcated world and where we have spreads between the various sovereign bond yields. ultimately, do they get to a point where a alarm bells will go off?
what is that point and what are the implications of it? >> the less couple of years have been extraordinary also for the government bond market, the biggest asset class in the world. if you look at some of the valuations in the government bond market, you can only conclude that the prices and the yields that you observe are not driven by fundamentals but the policy stance that has been accommodative over the years. accommodation is received and the fed is taking the lead on that and the next g3 central-bank might be the ecb sometime down the road. the german cpi numbers suggest that maybe happening sooner than is currently the consensus. then you will really see some sort of reality regarding the real cost in investors minds are of holding government bonds. yousef: and the strength of the
u.s. dollar. i have pulled up this charge. it shows the fundamentals. u.s. japan real yield gap. you can pull this up on your bloomberg. the technicals suggesting that the dollar will run still has -- bull run still has further to go. you have not seen anything yet as to the dollar strength in 2017. given the state of the greenback, how much can the federal reserve really hike and given the amount of fiscal stimulus that is coming in? >> they are not constrained by the exchange rate. economy is pretty closed and large and it does not trade that much with the rest of the world. the fed is much more independent than most other central banks in setting the rates. maybe not as independent as it was many years ago but it still is. -- exchange rate movement
what it does is that it hurts exactly those sectors and regions that have been attracted to the donald trump program and that are in the rest of belts. rust -- thathe are in the rust belt. this is an ironic side effect of the donald trump victory that we are seeing a strengthening dollar. you saidn the past, the pre-campaign donald trump makes it hard to understand the impact on the emerging markets and then you said the impact may not be as much or as much as people think. as you look at where growth in emerging markets, what does 17 -- what is 2017 going to look like? >> the risk is protectionism. some of the nominations, the appointments that donald trump has been suggesting suggests
this is a real risk. we need to remember that the u.s. has a system of a lot of checks and balances and while the republicans hold the majority in the house and the senate, it is not that the president 10 decree any sort of policy. in a republican dominated congress, there needs to be some negotiation with the white house on where things are going. clearly, what we will see emerging is much of the agenda that was presented during the campaign regarding trade -- it seems to be playing a centerpiece to the donald trump presidency. there he open is and trade oriented. if we were to be moving gradually into a less open, more protectionist environment, these economies could suffer. change: we have a huge in what is going on when it comes to the world. we do not know. this is the issue.
we have a move towards fiscal poli from monetary policy. inflation from deflation. and protectionism and geopolitical risks. are good.ese things how do you deal with these as someone who is breaking individual countries and the globe as a whole? >> we have to recognize that this change of government or presidency comes with more uncertainty than any other change in the presidency in our living memory. i would venture to say that. this comes with a lot of risks. it may come with opportunities also. but as a credit analyst, we would focus on the risks. the way we would deal with this is in the case -- on a case-by-case basis. together andt all you see where the vulnerabilities live, you will see that if you are looking at the outlooks of our sovereign ratings which indicate where the
ratings may go in the next year or so, you will see the negative outlook suggesting downgrades outnumbering positive outlooks by a margin of 4:1. we continue to see overall a negative trajectory for sovereign ratings. basically, this gives us an indication of where endless around the world think the price of oil will go. for the first quarter of 2017, 50 two dollars. $58 in the fourth quarter. where do you see oil prices this year? >> pretty similar. -- houseur house fuel view as well. $55, $60. , that is probably real. much beyond that, supply reactions would kick in. also ties in with
how you rate the world, it ties in with the budgets. saudi arabia has announced a series of reforms. the latest batch of changes being announced in the last couple of days. imminent reforms when it comes to the energy drinks and tobacco. are they doing a enough to offset the fact that there -- that they are still quite a distance from the breakeven oil price? >> saudi arabia is making great efforts to deal with this challenge. and i think we need to give them credit for what they have done. on the other hand, the budget is very dependent, not only the budget but the economy is very dependent on oil. and this diverse -- and this diversification drive is a long-term strategy that will not happen overnight. or even a decade. the challenge for the saudi authorities will be while the
view to adjust the budget to -- youthe budget deficit need to do it in such a way that secures the social cohesion of society. i think this is the real challenge. froms been a brutal change the high price of oil and the ample revenue. and the social peace you could buy with that to a much more austere environment. this is a difficult balancing act that the saudi authorities have in front of them. yousef: still to come on the show, we discuss how the strong dollar is affecting equity investments across the world. this is bloomberg. ♪
we speak about the impact it is happening -- it is having on gulf stocks. >> the economies of the gulf will follow the u.s. rates. the currencies are pegged at the end of the day. because you have a pegged currency, you will not see a significant impact. one thing that will be interesting is if you have another rate hike, a lot of people will be looking at the saudi banks. uae banks as well. apart from that, in the wider gcc, do not think there will be a big impact. yousef: a lot of invetors are excited about them opening up more to the world. this is the situation in terms of group rank returns. in 2016.ow it looked energy, petrochemical shares outperformed. someownside, weakness in of the hotel shares, retail and consumer stocks muddling around
in the middle. looking at 2017, what are you telling your clients about positioning? >> i think it will be the opposite. at the end of 2016, you see oil cuts and we were expecting oil to rally. priced intoly petrochemical stocks now. consumer stocks were lagging. year, weginning of the were expecting that to be lower because oil prices were lower. that will be changing. to go up oil prices and consumer purchasing power to go up. consumer stocks will be outperforming which i think most people might not agree with but i think that is the case. you touched on this slightly. what does one hundred basis points mean for that part of the world, the gulf? >> i am not an economist but if
you look at it in simple terms, you have pegged curtsies. fed wouldning, the raise the rates and you would see oil banks and the gcc raising rates as well. you can have tightening in lending but i do not think it will be significant at the end of the day. rishaad: it could be beneficial for the banks. terms of the emirates, what would you avoid? look at the uae market, it is mainly banks and real estate. and you're just talking about the fed, you would be interested and the banks and the real estate would follow the banks. in terms of avoiding, i think the uae will be interesting and we will see some upside in real estate and banks rather than specific sectors that you should avoid. yousef: where is the growth
going to come from? we are looking at the source markets for tourism. you are china, the u.k. and even egypt. they are all suffering from a stronger dollar. they cannot affto come here. you saw what happened on new year's eve, it was not the same crowd. >> when it comes to egypt and affordability. what i have been arguing with clients over in the last three months, the purchasing power is always assisted by a great market. egyptian consumers can spend more. way morehere were egyptians in dubai than i thought. yousef: the stronger dollar will not cloud that market that much. yousef: i know you feel strongly about the egypt story in 2007 about the egypt story in 2017.
the first devaluation in 2017 that i highlighted here was in march. the second evaluation comes in with the big pop in november. the other line, the white line -- the yellow line is the 12 month non-deliverable forward. you are saying this currency is way too weak. >> however, we have to go back to supply and demand and look at why it is too weak and how long it will remain weak. versusll about outflows inflows. investors are underestimating the outflows that need to go out and the size of the backlog on the stock market. of have four or five years capital controls in that market. you as an investment were not able -- as an investor were not able to get your money in and out freely. how long is it going to remain?
it depends on how quickly they can get the outflows. yousef: that is the key. pound compared to the other currencies. in the last three months, the egyptian pound has lost almost 50% of its value. is it going to happen fast enough in terms of the dollar liquidity returning to the market? it has not really picked up as fast as a lot of observers and experts would've hoped. >> it goes back to reforms. how quickly is a government willing to do its roof -- is reforms. how quickly can the implement that. it is a challenge. the second thing is you have to look at the egyptian economy. it is mainly tourism and the suez canal. there is no black market. you can transfer your money as an ex-pat. when it comes to the suez canal,
it depends on global trade rates. that has been week and towards them needs to come back. that is the key. in tenures time, we talk about each of becoming an industrial -- maybe in 10 years time, we talk about egypt becoming an industrial community. next, pmi data out of top economies. suggesting austerity measures may be waning. we will have that story for you. this is bloomberg. ♪
suggesting that businesses think the impact of fiscal austerity may be wearing off. it was a strong finish for 2016. the uae pmi was at a four month high. the summer was quite challenging for the gulf countries. particularly with the low oil prices, cuts to government spending. we are starting to see some of that fall. setting a strong state toward 2017. yousef: what about the situation in saudi arabia -- very much in focus. budget announcement. many reforms and changes. dataat we saw in the pmi was a decline in non-oil activity. 2016 relative to 2015. slower growth. but there is still expansion.
fiscal consolidation last year which was significant. if we look at total spending, it was 5% lower than in 2015. going forward, what is encouraging with the budget numbers and announced is that they will probably not make further significant cuts. we are expecting a flight increase in spending in 2017, not enough to drive an increase in growth but not anything that should prove a fervor -- a further headwind. rishaad: what about the uae and the pmi numbers there regarding growth? >> growth last year based on the pmi was slower than 2015. but it was not as bad as what a lot of people expected it to be given the sharp decline in oil prices and revenues. part of that is because the uae economy is much more diversified than any other in the gulf. we had an impact on government
spending to some extent but it was not a significant as it has been in other gulf states. in 2017, we think things are looking pretty good. dubai and announced a budget with a small deficit. focusing on increased infrastructure investment. we think those sorts of things will drive the economy and growth in 2017. so we are quite optimistic. we're looking for a slight increase in growth. yousef: market reductions -- marked reductions in output. where is the silver lining? positive thatal showed up in the december pmi for egypt was the export orders which improved significantly from november but it is still marginally negative. we are still seeing on average export orders decline but the pace of decline has been in proved from november. we are seeing the impact of the
devaluation on the export demand. the problem with egypt is that it does not have a big export center and the key tour is -- and the key industry is tourism. we are hoping those things will improve in the third quarter of this year. we are expecting russia to lifted the ban for flights into egypt which should provide a big boost into the towards him sector. we would like to see more evidence of the devaluation having an impact on demand extra. -- on demand extra delay. -- externally. further -- the further devaluation will not help. they are trying to stabilize the foreign exchange rate around 18 or 19 to the dollar. i do think that we would want to see some stability so market participants can plan for the
coming months and years. think we are seeing significant evaluation. the gap between the official exchange rate and the black market rate has declined significantly. it is very tight now. hopefully, once we stabilize around these levels, will establish confidence for importers and also exporters as to how they can plan for 2017. yousef: next on best of bloomberg markets: middle east, the turkish lira crushed under the terrorist attack and a strong dollar. that is ahead. this is bloomberg. >> the more it strengthens, the more the risks pick up on a global level.
75 upgraded jets to ge's leasing division. airlines do get deep discounton orders such as that. japan has temporarily recalled its ambassador over a south korean statue commemorating women used as sex slaves by japanese forces. women was to comfort unveiled last week. thailand. scheduledtentatively for this year have been delayed to 2018. plans for democracy remain but the timing needs to be slightly adjusted because of the cremation and funeral of the king and the coronation of his successor which is expected later this year. world coverede
with 2600 journalists. looking at the markets. the yuan is the big story. let us look at the equity trading. david. -- a lot ofig story it is that people are starting to doubt that the dollar, the donald trump rally. bond yields. up 1.5 back up-- to 3.6%. dollar-yen, today charge. we are still at about 116. a lot of pressure on the japanese stock market. that is standing out. the underperformer across the asia-pacific. the renminbi, weakness coming through after a two-day gain game. have a look at the overnight hybrids. spiking above 60%.
the short squeezes getting more painful for sure positions on the renminbi. equity markets. asia is continuing its best start to the years since 2006 and we are counting down to the reopened here in hong kong. yousef: welcome back to best of bloomberg markets: middle east. i am yousef camilla dean. fell followinga the terrorist attack at the nightclub shilling 39 people in the early hours of the new year. we have an update. >> a manhunt is underway in istanbul as police conduct raids across the city. 12 people have been arrested. the other assailant is still on the loose. his identity is still unknown but the government has released new pictures of him. the islamic state has claimed responsibility for this attack
which killed at least dirty nine people on new year's eve at an istanbul nightclub. some of the dead are foreigners. this nightclub is extremely popular with both turks and tour is to alike. the islamic state says this attack is linked to turkeys the lee terry operation in syria but turkey is not only dealing with terrorism against the islamic state but also kurdish militants. since june 2015, where than 1004 people have died in terror related attacks. the turkish lira barely changed against the dollar. yousef: that is a key point regarding the turkish lira. not only does turkey have a deal with the uncertainty around the terrorism unfolding in the country but it also has to deal with the deteriorating macroeconomic picture. the inflation data coming out of turkey is coming later today. will it bring any bright spots
they can cling to? >> according to a survey, economists predict inflation will accelerate to 7.6% on an annual basis in december. that is barely in line with the government and central banks forecast. we are dealing with rising fuel prices and an increase in food related cost as the lira weakens against the dollar. some economists are predicting double-digit inflation numbers in the next few months. depreciated 18% against the dollar in 2016. ae second worst performer in emerging-market currencies after the argentine pizza -- argentine peso. yousef: let us talk about the u.s. dollar. major-- up 8% having implications with the
inauguration of donald trump around the corner and fiscal implications and monetary implications with the federal reserve continuing on its path in terms of hiking rates going forward. let us bring in the managing director of middle east and africa. great to have you back on the show. >> happy to be back. tradingthe u.s. dollar higher on that index. a strong start. how much further does this have to go? some bold calls from citigroup that are saying that we have not seen anything. >> there are many components but there is room for it to strengthen. but the more it strengthens, the more the risks pick up on a global level. very simplistically, it is really bad for u.s. exports that make up so much of the s&p 500. we have already seen the equity markets in the u.s. shift from a exporterfrom a global to a domestic company.
the exporters in the u.s. will struggle with the strong dollar is hurting as here as well. we are really feeling it it is hurting our tourism. it is hurting emerging markets as well. the continued strength of the dollar has risks. the tightening of the fed could strengthen it further. yousef: i have pulled up this chart -- 5498. the latest data points. you can see how they have built the dollar.bets on how much further do you think the u.s. dollar will go? >> the game of predictions is a tough one. yousef: i know you are king of it. >> i try to avoid it. to direction seems to be set continue as a continuing strengthening dollar. plans come into play
quicker than anticipated and it the fed continues to tighten, ais thing genuinely could go full year at 4% or 5%. that is painful and dangerous. rishaad: how far do we go? the market does tend to overshoot in either direction. have we already gotten to that point? else the moment, where will you look for safe haven moves? brexit exitm the not creating a sterling interest. the swiss franc to. we think it is gone too far. or will you go for the euro? moreu really want to own yen? it is also a bit about where else do you go? that is part of the problem. --there is no alternative
at the moment from a safety perspective. and that is driving some of that trait. rishaad: but it has been quite the eurozonee how has been able to hold its head above water. at leaste were predict parity and that did not come to pass. is a directional play. directionally it has ended up towards parity. long-term, i think you could even break parity. it is not unforeseen for th event to take place. we have a couple of political .vents this year for the eu depending on what happens in france, the market seemed to take the italy referendum a little too lightly so i'm confused about that but if we see populist movement in the eu, i think we could break that
parity also. you were always particularly concerned about the execution component of the reforms that we are seeing across this part of the world. oil prices fell. the region woke up and did these reforms. you are not convinced that they will be able to deliver on a lot of these promises. has been needing to move these things slowly and carefully. things have been moving quite fast in saudi arabia and other markets as well. and even with the new plan, how quickly can you affect it? how well will the changes come into play from an execution perspective? locals versus ex-pats and the charges and taxes you will put on people. some of this revolves around execution. balanced enormous budget for the uae last year which tells you there is
positive hope and the ability to execute but on the other hand, oman. they are coming back in this year it saying they will have a lower deficit. but i feel aittle nervous about whether they are making the reforms to actually bring the deficit under control. yousef: what will be the bright spot? which asset class are you keen on? is it equities, bonds, egypt? uae, ityou look at the is by far a wonderful economy in the middle east and it is working well. oil is down but they continue to do things to get themselves up again and keep themselves competitive globally. broader, i think the story is around the debt side of the story. some of the issue is quite good but we do not want to see too much too fast. saudi comes back in q1. we are nervous. what amount do they come back to
the market with. i'm nervous about the other markets that are issuing a market to come back. does kuwait really need the dead issuances? they have such a significant surpluses and to cash reserves but that is about creating a curve for their corporate sector. a few things to look at from the debt sector. issue ishow much of an the peg to the dollar? are those pegs under pressure? how do they defend them? >> that is out there so everyone talks about it but i dismiss it because you have so much of your revenue and so much of your cost your input bill, denominated in dollars. what is the point of the devaluation? we don't, and this is one thing
i would love to see in the next 10 years or so, is i would love to see more manufacturing on the ground. it is good to see to buy is driving some industrial strategy now. but unless you are making things, what is the point of a devaluation? happy your labor force is to be paid in domestic, local currency, but in this case they have to repatriate it and they need the dollars. yousef: why iran is looking for 100 alien dollars in investment to boost the energy industry. this is bloomberg. ♪
companies have been approved to visit the industry. >> the donald trump presidency will be a big issue for a lot of sex there's and a lot of industries and specifically for iran. leading up ton his election, he was critical of the iran deal that the obama administration made with karen -- with iran a year ago. there is a push in the u.s. for additional sanctions on iran for terrorist financing, and about the nuclear program. how that shapes up will be aig issue. the putative secretary of state, tillerson might he is an oilman and he has not been in favor of sanctions as a businessman. we will have to see when he gets into office and he has sanctions as a tool, how he will use that. donald trump has also been
critical of the fact that u.s. companies cannot invest in iran while foreign companies are able to including russian companies. there are a lot of moving parts on his policy about that. the prevailing wisdom from analysts now is that donald trump will not be favorable to that deal and he will not encourage investment. there is a lot you can do without trashing the deal that would also make it harder for companies to invest in iran. that will be a hurdle going forward and we will have to see deals with that policy this year. rishaad: tell us about the companies interested in iran and the challenges for its industry. >> the 29th companies as you mentioned. we see a lot of the same names we have seen signing preliminary contracts with iran. there, some russian
producers. of japaneseot companies and chinese companies as well. asia is a big market for iran and those companies are the ones that have a lot to invest and want to get their hands on additional resources. total and shell has been there in the past developing gas. they and some of the russian companies have signed memorandums of understanding to study field but those are not firm deals yet. getting back to donald trump, these preliminary deals give those companies time to get in, look at iran, kick the tires and wait and see what the incoming administration does in terms of policy and take some time to decide. yousef: the iranians have been trying to get the oil production back to pre-sanctions level. they're currently producing 3.6 million barrels. opec has agreed to take 1.8 million barrels out of the system per day.
how will this work out? >> these were the two big victories for iran in the last year, the increase in oil production. with the end of project -- with the end of sanctions, they've ramped up production. and in that opec deal that they reached, that the group reached, it ran was not asked to cut. they are able to increase production ever so slightly, 90,000 barrels per day, getting close to their pre-sanctions level. these deals that ran it will tender, these are longer deals for the future of the country. we're looking at projects that would bring oil back onto the market towards the end of the decade. say thatother analysts we have not had investment in the last two or three years in the oil industry and that has taken out a lot of potential supply that we will need towards the end of the decade as demand increases. you ran is looking to get back
into the market to hit the spot when demand increases. the investment we are talking about now will not hit that opec cut this year in the immediate term. sales arehe worldwide weakted to drop because of growth prices. i can understand why we demand with perhaps -- why week demand affectweawk demand would sukuk. we do agree that sukuk market
is -- compared to the global market as a whole. year, early part of last everyone was saying that 2016 would be a tough year for sukuk. and the market popped the trench. and it rebound. continueect that to q2. 2017 and all the way to the reliance on leisure is expected to continue. malaysia has announced a few houses have come up with the prediction of 100 billion ringgit. expect it to be issued in the local currency market.
yousef: welcome back to best of bloomberg markets: middle east. a paris-based alternative investment firm was said to be in talks this week to take a slice of a $2 billion private equity portfolio. they may be considering purchasing as much as a 50% stake. tracy alloway has the story from abu dhabi. billionns for its 2 dollar private equity portfolio. this seems to be the latest
extension of that. the idea is to put it into a new vehicle and then partner with some other investment firms and the french lender that you mentioned is one of those potential names. ala get frombad that? it is trying to expand abu dhabi's reach internationally. a vote of the global financial markets, the new offshore financial center. to partner with more international investors, then this brought it -- broadens out would be into the international financial community at a time when it is trying to build up its reputation as such. rishaad: what is the latest on the merger with ipic? that is the big news in abu dhabi. the merger between ipic and m
ubadala. there was some talk that it could be completed by the end of 2016. we are talking an eventual entity that will have a $125 billion in assets, one of the biggest mergers of all time. that deadline was a bit unrealistic. we are still in the bit of implementation. the next news is likely to be the new name of the combined entity. they are putting the two names into a single company. on that front, i am cheering for mupic to be the new name. we will have to wait and see. yousef: that is it for best of bloomberg markets: middle east. we will be covering earning season across the region and we will flesh out the conversation with the managing director at the national bank of abu dhabi
>> it is 1:00 p.m. in hong kong. i am rishaad. the offshore yuan pairing its record weekly rally. the exchange rate dropped 0.5% in hong kong this morning after a 2.5% surge. clients itvising could be the time to bet against the yuan. china might step up scrutiny of u.s. companies with tensions against donald trump. if the tycoon takes punitive measures ast