tv Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg January 15, 2017 11:00pm-12:01am EST
♪ ausef: the pound takes beating as theresa may signals a hard line on brexit. korean prosecutors promised to announce their decision on the samsung's vice-chairman jay y. lee. he could be facing arrest. yousef: dismissing the eu and calling it obsolete, donald trump shakes the foundations of transatlantic relations. luxottica agrees to
merge with essilor in a $53 billion deal. it is 8:00 a.m. across the emirates. i am yousef gamal el-din. shery: i am shery ahn in hong kong. welcome to "bloomberg markets: middle east". risk off sentiment, everyone crowding the dollar again with the index up .4% and the japanese yen strengthening for a session.secutive a different story for the british pound after breaching that 1.20 level for the first time since the flash crash. that happened during asian trading, so we have to keep an eye on that british currency. yousef: it is dead center in focus. that is what we can say. the british pound and the beating it got off reports that theresa may is seeking to leave
the single currency union there to regain control of the borders for britain. this is the chart that puts it into perspective. this is a story that goes back to june 2016, every time theresa may spoke, the pound lower. vote, then theresa may takes power, then their reaction to the speech in october, reports they will seek a hard brexit, the latest number there, again to the downside. the kleins of 19% against the u.s. dollar since the decision to leave the eu. downside potential, but let's look at the market action in a ship. sensexi'm looking at the in mumbai, losing for a second consecutive session, though not a lot of movement, down .1%. the hang seng index down 1%
after it rallied for three consecutive weeks, mainland flowing into hong kong shares to hedge that yuan depreciation and capital controls on the mainland. down 1%, the yen gathering momentum as it strengthens. of course, a couple of hours away from the open of trade in the middle east, so what are you watching? 10:00 a.m. local time here, looking at a mixed picture, downside pressure in dubai. point 1%, real estate stocks driving that off comments after the saudi housing minister spoke. there, that stock was
up. egypt, gains of .5%, a new record there. a quick note, some of the key emerging-market currencies, the turkish lira, goldman sachs saying it is underweight turkish domestic debt amid geopolitical uncertainty, and the challenging macro dynamics. let's check the first word headlines. some korean media outlets are reporting prosecutors will seek an arrest , anant for jay y. lee official decision expected today after prosecutors's question him for 22 hours in korea's undue influence scandal. the country's pension chief has become the latest public figure to be indicted by prosecutors. donald trump to recognize the high sensitivity with regard to taiwan, china saying it's one
china policy not negotiable. trump telling the wall street journal that he would only commit to the policy after assessing the progress beijing has made on trade and currency. he is not prepared to declare china a currency manipulator immediately upon being sworn in this friday. john brennan called donald trump's comments about the u.s. intelligence community ," suggesting donald trump does not have a full understanding of russia's capability or tensions. this comes amid tensions with the intelligence community following a series of insults from trump in recent weeks. the at non-'s prime minister holding out hope that trump will reconsider his position on the tpp. the incoming american president said he will with draw the 12-nation trade pact. >> the message that i see is
that i believe the new administration of the united states will reconsider its perspective on the tpp, and it will also try to achieve a new generation agreement that will benefit all parties concerned. i see the newly appointed members of the cabinet, many of them are in favor of the tpp, so i think they might reconsider their decision. we have the world covered with 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you are watching bloomberg news. thank you. the asian regional benchmark retreating after three weeks of gains, energy and real estate leading declines. let's go to juliette saly for a breakdown. juliette: not a lot of
conviction in these markets, not a lot for investors to be excited about. we have concerns about the potential u.s.-china trade relations, the an auger ration of trump this week, then weakness from the pound, so most asian markets underwater today, 1.5%.ng seng off by this is the fifth the session of losses on the shanghai composite. the nikkei also being sold off as they yen strengthens against the dollar for a sixth consecutive session. the nikkei is off by 1.2% in the afternoon trade, and most southeast asia and markets underwater as well. we are seeing upside in the australian market, a big rally coming through in steel, lifting the material players, and also
li ka-shing making got play for duet group, sending its share price up by 5.6%, good movement on new zealand's market as well, some upside in the philippines and jakarta as well, but hiding andnvestors not willing to put their money into equities. down one falling, point 3%, the first time we have seen it at levels like this since the october flash crash. westpac saying today that we could actually see it fall to 1.118 as we hear more from theresa may. on the radio this morning, he was saying they think it could fall beyond 1.18, so this is one currency we are keeping an i on. the pound weakness is seeing emerging-market currencies fall against the greenback, the indonesian rupiah is one in particular today. shery: thank you. continue our discussion
on the pound as the u.k. government draws of planes to reassure investors falling reports that theresa may will outline plans for a hard brexit in london on tuesday. , theng us now for more global chief economist for standard. thank you for talking to us. you believe the reality of a hard brexit has been fully priced in to what the pound is doing, or could we see further downside pressure? >> i think we can see further downside pressure. for us at standard chartered, a hard brexit is a starting position. it looks like the most likely outcome. could get more complicated than just a hard brexit, because we can have britain exiting the european union without access to the common market, and without access to any transition deal
being reached in the meantime, so uncertainty will be elevated. the biggestill export market for great britain, and some more downside risk for the pound sterling will persist in the next few months. >> geopolitical economics is how you termed it. we are looking forward to the speech theresa may will give on tuesday. we understand she is drying up plans to reinsurer investors. what do expect from that speech in terms of final detail? itthe details are short, and is not certain what britain is after. that is part of the problem of the referendum. people voted for brexit, but there was no question or choice --what type of exit people type of brexit people preferred. sure theresa may can do a lot to reassure markets when it comes to the currency, because it is a negotiation. there will be to bank parties,
and the european union party can be complex and reaching consensus, so it is not entirely up to her or britain. what europe thinks is equally important, and she has no control over that. what does a hard brexit due to your forecasts? we need to bear in mind about britain is something that we have seen already, the pound sterling takes most of the hit. that allows the currency to act as a shock absorber, and because it acts that way, the economy is more limited in terms of impact. there will be downside risks to growth, but if sterling was not taking such a big hit, the hit on the economy would have been much harder. as far as europe is concerned, it is a concern that britain is leaving, but there are more
serious issues in europe that are not related to great britain. i think we need to keep a close eye on italy. in 2018,al election and the fact that almost all of the opposition parties favor at , if notiting the euro the european union altogether, so italy will be a much more serious challenge for europe and great britain is. shery: in focus for investors, speech, butresa may also the supreme court, which is now set to rule this month or parliament carries the power to invoke or exit. does the pound risk a violent rally if the court decides to decide with parliament instead? >> i doubt it. if it does, it will be short-lived, because even if it is the parliament that votes to start brexit, it is very
difficult to imagine a situation where the parliament would vote against brexit. there was a referendum, people voted. binding, but it would be difficult for members of parliament, the existing parliament, to go against the popular vote, so one way or another, whether the government or the parliament, i think the brexit process will be starting in 2017. shery: stick around. we want to broaden the discussion to include the u.s., the protectionism, and so much more. be joining us later in the show. up next, as the middle east's best-performing stock market rises for an eighth straight day, we look behind the optimism. yousef: a conversation with standard chartered resumes, welcome to the jungle is how he called his report last time around, increasing uncertainty
yousef: back to two "bloomberg markets: middle east" live on bloomberg tv and radio. . am yousef gamal el-din shery: india's government may step into help bank struggling to deal with bad loans. the press trust of india reported the finance ministry will finalize a capital infusion plan for state run lenders this week. the report says government could offer more than $3.5 billion in assistance, which would be announced in the budget february 1. ft says luxottica and
essilor have agreed to a $53 billion merger. luxottica is the world's biggest eyeglasses maker. bans,r makes ray oakley's, and chanel frames. luxottica was up 4% at one point, and essilor up .3%. shery: li ka-shing seeking to expand energy assets by buying duet group for five point $5 billion. shares surged 6% in sydney. it is subject to regulatory approval, but is expected to go ahead. it is the latest of tempe li ka-shing to bolster his business. investors are shifting
their view on the trump trade. they have gone from one more than $1 billion in november 2 nothing. we put the chart up for you. the initial excitement and enthusiasm off the back of the trump election, two key industries, biotech and aerospace and defense, to virtually nothing now. again, the growing anxiety of what donald trump is saying. one person who has always been guest,al has been our you've never bought into a lot of the optimism. now that you have had 3-4 additional weeks to listen to donald trump, what is your analysis? >> it remains the same. we were one of the few banks that argued for a long time that
the west needed a strong fiscal stimulus to kickstart economic activity. that leaving it up to central banks was not going to be enough, but this time, i have a lot of questions about the effectiveness of the fiscal stimulus in the united states. the first question is related to what kind of fiscal stimulus are we going to see. through tax cuts to the wealthiest part of the population, the impact on growth will be limited. if it is mostly through infrastructure expenditure, then it can really work, and if this is what we end up seeing, then we have to be more positive, but it is not clear that infrastructure will be the priority in this fiscal stimulus plan. yousef: one of the key concerns you pointed out was that the tightening conditions are going to take hold faster.
is that still the case? absolutely. fiscal stimulus works when interest rates are close to zero, but interest rates should not be rising. if interest rates are rising and the fed is keen to increase interest rates, then the monetary policy tightening will offset any benefit from fiscal policies, so even if the fiscal plan is well designed and well interest tightening rates and the stronger dollar tighteningsequent will offset any benefit from fiscal policy. we are seeing the tightening of monetary policy now, rates moving higher, the dollar stronger, and we have not seen anything from fiscal policy, and fiscal policy notoriously works with very big -- news out ofing
japan, the finance ministers says they will sell ¥1.4 trillion in additional japan poster shares, $12.3 billion. 4.7%,post extending falls the most since november. the ministry of finance will sell up to 1.4 train yen in additional japan poster shares. , let'se with my guest discuss a little bit about japan, because were talking about fiscal stimulus coming from the u.s., fiscal stimulus across the world, and this donald trump trade starting to fade a little bit, but still the biggest winner so far has in japan, and japan's boj as we see this extended decline in the japanese yen, do expect this positive momentum for the whole economy there to continue? helpseaker yen definitely
, and as i was mentioning, the big impact of the trump trade right now is on the currency, and it will be better news for other countries, mostly other countries than the united states. beneficiary biggest from a fiscal stimulus in the u.s. is not going to be japan or the united states. the biggest beneficiary will be europe, because europe runs a massive trade surplus with the united states. usually be the currency of least resistance when it comes to weakening against the dollar, and a weaker too will provide some help the eurozone. you mentioned that we are seeing fiscal stimulus across the world. i think we are not. this is the biggest problem for the united states. policy stimulus, if it is coordinated amongst the biggest economies in the world,
then it can be very helpful. if it is not coordinated and mostly the united states that goes ahead with the fiscal stimulus, then you will see reaction on interest rates, reaction on the currency, and ofs will offset the impact the fiscal stimulus, so that challenge the u.s. is facing is the lack of coordination across the world. shery: that is very interesting. the gains could be there. thank you for joining us. the global chief economist at standard chartered. coming up, south korean prosecutors will soon decide whether or not to seek an arrest warrant for samsung vice-chairman jay y. lee. we will be live with the latest. this is bloomberg. ♪
i am yousef gamal el-din. shery: i am shery and in hong kong. some south korean media outlets are reporting prosecutors will seek an arrest warrant for samsung vice-chairman jay y. lee . for more, here is sophie kamaruddin. what are they saying? whate: they are looking at could be the allegations in the arrest warrant. there is a likely decision by 1:30 p.m. hong kong time. prosecutors may seek an arrest warrant for bribery, her jury, and embezzlement. mention of have made these charges in previous statements. we were expecting that decision over the weekend, but on sunday, a spokesperson said it would be delayed.
the economic impact of such a high profile arrest is being taken into account. prosecutors have been interviewing all materials gathered over the course of the investigation, and they are studying legal principles for the case. said that biggest concern is not whether they will but theee, ramifications for the president park geun-hye scandal. shery: the prosecutors are seeking to arrest that arrest warrant. sophie: this is the latest update. this morning, we did get an update regarding an indictment. shery: so we will get the latest on that. news out of south korea, the prosecutors are potentialmsung's
i am rishaad salamat, theresa may will outline plans for a hard brexit on tuesday. it is believe she will say they are willing to quit the single market to take back control of immigration and borders. the pound has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar. plunging aftera the company agreed to pay $1 billion to settle a case in the u.s.
the payment removing to a hurdle to the sale of the company after the biggest product recall in automotive history. it admitted hiding risk for 15 years and agreed to plead guilty to one criminal charge in the settlement. the creation of a palestinian state remains the only acceptable solution to the conflict, the conclusion of an international conference. the 1967 borders would be the basis of any agreement. to paris forum has tried restart the stalled peace process. spacex returning to the skies saturday with the launch of a queue munication satellite, the first flight since a rocket destroyed its payload.
spacex is hoping to launch 20-24 rockets this year from eight missions in 2016. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. yousef: welcome back. you are watching bloomberg. i am yousef gamal el-din. shery: i am shery and in-home kong to breaking news out of south korea, prosecutors there are seeking an arrest warrant for the vice-chairman of samsung, jay y. lee, allegations including bribery. samsung stock down 2%. investigated on allegations that the company made payments to gain the backing of korea's national pension fund for a controversial merger in 2015 with a two samsung companies. allegations,ose
prosecutors and dieting chief of , nowational pension fund hearing that the fact the leader of samsung group, jay y. lee, is going to be arrested as prosecutors are seeking a warrant to arrest him. this is all coming at a time when we are seeing the huge generational leadership change at samsung group with power going to a new leader. the now de facto leader being arrested over allegations, including bribery. yousef: right, let's switch gears, across the border, beijing morning trump to not question its claims to taiwan, saying the one china policy is not negotiable. comes a day after the president suggested a major reset of u.s.-china relations.
tom mackenzie has the details. another round of spying, this will not end anytime soon, is it? it doesn't feel that way. this coming friday from a wall street journal interview with trump, saying he will not commit to the one china policy, a bedrock of u.s.-china relations since the 1970's, saying he wanted to see how china would act on trade, which he says has been unfair to the u.s., and on the currency before he makes any decision on that. this comes after comments questioning the one china policy and that controversial phone call from the president of taiwan in december, raising many eyebrows here and broke diplomatic protocol. we heard a strongly worded response from the chinese foreign ministry on saturday saying quite simply that the one ,hina policy was nonnegotiable and urging trump to recognize
the sensitivity of the taiwan question. we heard stronger words from the state media, china daily saying that if he was to act on these comments once he is in office, china may be forced to take the gloves off. shery: that of course just one of the issues between the two sides. what are the other areas of contention between trump in china? is: it seems that trump trying to tie his trade angst and the suggestion that the u.s. has been unfairly done in terms of the trade relationship to wider geopolitical questions. week said he last wanted to stop the chinese from accessing the south china sea islands, something that prompted a response from state media with the global time saying those comments were foolish and could lead to war if they were acted on. trumpis also north korea,
and his advisers have said china has not done enough to rein in pyongyang on its new group program, then there is the currency issue. step back in the wall street journal interview, saying he wasn't going to label currency manipulator on the first day of his job, but would speak to his chinese counterparts before he did that. shery: thank you so much for that. vietnam's prime minister is holding out hope that donald trump will reconsider his opposition to the transpacific partnership trade deal. speaking exclusively to haslinda is hopefulid he the new u.s. administration will see the benefits of the treaty. i have had a meeting with
u.s. business leaders and also met with secretary kerry of the united states, and the message that i see is that i believe the new administration of the united states will reconsider its perspective on the tpp, and it will also try to achieve a new generation agreement that will benefit all parties concerned. and even without tpp and place, cooperation among countries will still continue to grow. it does not mean that with the tpp being derailed that other countries will withdraw themselves and reduce cooperation. japan, australia, new zealand, and the remaining members of the tpp will work together to find a solution and come up with a way to benefit everyone, even if the tpp is not ratified by the united states. president elected donald trump has made it clear he wants to kill the tpp.
happen, even though you are optimistic it could come up and another form, should that happen do you see nations in ,sia gravitating towards rcep letting it have a greater momentum to fruition? >> the member countries are engaging in negotiations, and be sure that rcep will promoted, but the newly appointed members of the, many of them, are in favor of the tpp, so i think they might reconsider their decision. is thatike to stress even without the tpp, vietnam will continue to move forward, because in addition to the tpp, 12 free-trade agreements, three under negotiation, including the rcep, so i think this will help our economies to continue be propelled forward. is in this year
did by china. there is a sense that china's influence and power will increase. is there reason to be concerned about that? >> while we participated also in other chinese led programs like the aiib or the maritime silk road, the rcep is also a china-led initiative, but as long as it benefits all members, countries, then it is fine to participate in such agreements. haslinda: prime minister, how would you describe the relationship between via tom and china? has that -- between vietnam and china? has that changed? >> china and vietnam our partner countries, neighbor countries, total turnover of over 100 billion dollars. china needs fear non-, and vietnam needs china, a two-way street and economic development. yousef: that is the vietnamese
prime minister talking to haslinda amin. bloombergatest editorial, saying nothing donald trump has done should come as a surprise, including his appointments and more. still to come, reports of what to expect from theresa may's brexit briefing as it shocks the currency markets. we will take a closer look at what is expected. stay tuned. this is bloomberg. ♪
to upgrade its power grid after making a similar deal with saudi arabia last week. takeich gulf countries advantage of falling solar costs to diversify away from dependence on crude oil. that in on stronger demand, the government expecting overseas investors to buy as much as $11 billion in local treasury bills. return tolanning to the international bond market to raise $2.5 billion of dollar-denominated bonds. state media says marketing will begin on tuesday. yousef: profit last year climbed 2.4 net income rising billion dollars, pretty much in line with analysts estimate's. customer funding also gained. let's get back to our top
story, british prime minister theresa may will signal plans to quit the eu single market, sending the pound below 1.20. steve davis says parity could be in the cards. ftse has set the concentration and export orientated companies, a weaker pound is good news, and that's hittingftse has been successive highs over the last couple of months, and that will probably continue as a consequence. of 1.110 is not unlikely, and we could be looking at parity by year in if the worst fears are realized. yousef: baron assets management is not convinced that will fall that far, saying geopolitical imagination will keep the currency away from parity. will try to find
some other trading partners, and the u.k. is trying to get closer to the u.s., because in the new world order, the u.s. will find new friends and new enemies, so the u.k. is trying to come closer to the u.s. as a trading partner, and the u.s. is quite on, so i think that parity the pound, i think that is too pessimistic. shery: at the asian financial them, klaus regling said u.k. is set to be the big economic loser from brexit, but the eu will also pay a price. in the longlly, run, it might be really a problem for the u.k. because it will reduce foreign direct investment. we see that already happening, investors going to the continent somead of the u.k., or shifts and financial services. politically, it is very bad for
the eu, so that's why i regret like most people in the european union, regret the result of the referendum. i think the main concerns will be for the u.k. yousef: let's kick off the currency conversation with the commonwealth bank of australia. thank you for coming on the program. let's kick off with the british pound. i put up this chart, the technical layout for the cable trade. bloomberg strategists had initially predicted that at 1.22, if the support comes through, it could be set for liftoff. with the latest developments, it roque through that support, around the 1.20 range. where do you see this trait going? >> our best to and ariel is for the pound against the u.s. dollar to edge lower towards
110, but clearly the risk at this stage is tilted more to the downside. that willctor continue to undermine the british pound over the next 12 uncertainties related to brexit negotiations, and even the possibility that the u.k. may consider leaving the european union without even reaching some form of trade agreements with the eu. secondly, another factor undermining the pound is the fact that real interest rates in the u.k. can turn more negative because of the prospects for faster u.k. inflation. uncertainties generated by briggs and negotiations will make it very hard for the u.k. to finance or recycle it's very large current account deficit, roughly 6% of gdp, meaning they may have to go investors.tract
not trade is the stronger u.s. dollar, giving emerging markets a headache. how much strength is there left in the u.s. dollar? notgroup saying you have seen anything yet when it comes to the u.s. dollar rally. the indicators would suggest there is more upside in the currency. a stronger u.s. dollar will not help a trump administration. if anything, it might interfere politically to keep it at bay and boost exports. what is the topside limit to u.s. dollar strength? the u.s.entally, dollar is not overvalued at these levels. the dollar can edge higher and still be a fundamentally attractive and not be overvalued from a fundamental standpoint. short-term, we expect the dollar to trade on the defensive. don't havewe
significant details regarding trump administration policies, the dollar trading in line and in line with interest rate expectations. the dollar is for noble to the downside surprise on economic activity in the u.s., but long-term, we are bullish on the u.s. dollar and expect the fiscal policy to be very stimulative. at the same time, monetary policy will turn more restrictive, and that is usually the combination for a strong currency. shery: you touched on my point there, that the u.s. dollar could actually be in for a have as ittracks -- for a dip tracks policies in the u.s. ande see a delay in reform fiscal stimulus and see the u.s. dollar dipping, should investors by that dip? bei would definitely recommending buying the u.s. dollar on dips.
over the next 6-12 months, our view is for the u.s. dollar to make new cyclical highs, primarily because we expect that trump administration to implement their pro-growth inflationary fiscal policy that will force the fed to gnome allies interest rates faster ,han it is currently rejecting interest rate futures in the u.s., and it will underpin a higher u.s. dollar. far, emerging markets absorbing this higher u.s. dollar and higher in just rates in the u.s. pretty well. they are being pretty resilient. are there any emerging-market currencies we should keep an eye on in the next few months? mexican hashe fallen way too far, especially against the u.s. dollar, so i'm expecting a pullback on the mexican peso, the move higher versus the u.s. dollar, especially now that the crude
oil price is expected to stay firm, and the fact that speculators have accumulated record short positions in the mexican peso. we are looking for a pullback in the peso, so we like the peso versus other emerging-market currencies. us.y: thank you for joining the senior currency strategist at cba. yousef: breaking news, earnings nbd at 7.2 4s billion dirhams. 6.78, so ae was for beat on the 2016 net for emirates nbd. a different picture to the 2016 total income. a miss on the total income there at 318.8 deposits
billion, so deposit growth at the end of 2016. also, the license to open the first branch in india and open more and saudi arabia, three specifically. this is a stock that had 12 buys , to holds, zero sells. from analysts have been to the upside for the last four reeks. this is a stock with quite a rally, although a dip in the second half. you are looking at gains of 2.5%, so an interesting set of numbers that will be an ongoing dream -- theme and regional coverage. let's get you a preview of what else is to come in the program. we will talk about kuwait's main index, bucking the trend, and we will tell you why. maybe it is worth putting your money to work there? we will tell you the full story. this is bloomberg.
yousef: stocks in the united arab emirates fell as investors expect boosting provisions for bad loans. earnings coming through. trend,also bucking the stocks rising for an eighth day. let's get more. why the positive sentiment? relative earnings and vibration showing kuwait neither overvalued or undervalued. what is the story there? have seen investors bullish in that market right now, and we don't have one positiveigger for this momentum, but what we hear from investors is there are elements quite curious. investors rotating from real estate to the stock markets at this moment, something we have
not seen in the past few years. lot of chapter and investors in kuwait that there could be some sort of support from a fund tied to the government that would be providing liquidity and also supporting prices in that market. still unclear. we cannot determine that this is the fact that is behind the movement in kuwait right now, but quite an interesting moment for kuwaiti stocks. shery: what about expectations for earnings? what are investors focusing on their? >> yes, a good question. most of the biggest banks in the region are posting earnings this week. for aday was the day national bank that has a big impact in the market there.
, so people are focusing on provisions, and the numbers regarding nonperforming loans. they have a big impact on earnings. last year, was a tough year in the middle east for most of the banks. they want to see trends, how will they stay at the current level or diminish levels for provisions. fory: thank you so much that. we are counting down to the market open in the emirates and just over an hour. what are you watching ahead of that open? yousef: we will see earnings reaction to the fourth quarter that fell 25% and missed , citing an increase in feedstock costs. nbd after those earnings. also saudi cement on the back of
>> it is what a card p.m. in hong kong. i'm shery ahn with an update of the top stories. south korean prosecutors are seeking to arrest samsung vice-chairman on charges including bribery. they started their briefing on some songs lee. lee is accused of participating in payments the company made to a close friend of the president in exchange for support. they say a hearing is scheduled for wednesday. allegations