tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg January 17, 2017 1:00am-2:31am EST
set outbrexit means is today. they will seek new trading relationships. >> safety first with political concerns from brexit and trump. pauses.e, sterling >> kearny warns again of brexit. they say the u.k. consumers will face fresh headwinds. >> for understandable reasons, investment has been dampened by
uncertainty with access to finance and some uncertainty over what the relationship will be with our trading partners. >> the chinese president steals the spotlight at the devil's forum. debatetsche bank ceo our at 730. this hour, we're going his first interview of the day. a warm welcome to you here on our flagship morning show. to thes get straight
world economic forum. it is great to see you. hope you are draft up and ready for the lineup. what do we have to come? >> this is the coldest one in memory. we will speak to the asset management ceo about what we heard from theresa may and where the single market puts a lot of of the bank and the asset managers. have thelater, we credit suisse ceo and the back of opec cuts. thank you very much. francine will be back shortly. we have plenty to talk about. where we areou with various asset classes and the lingering concerns about what we do or don't know about
trump. >> you have movement in the cold there is a and burnish mint of credentials. 1200 and high point of you are seeing volatility at a two-month low. is the longest winning streak since june of last year. that is no doubt about it the trump and brexit risks are rising. >> we are waiting to hear from theresa may and we will get to the points of what brexit means later today. >> thank you. the u.k. is likely to pull out a new tradingwith
relationship. this is a message that theresa may is expected to deliver for brexit. this will come as a blow for business groups through europe. consumers that have been the backbone of the brexit vote face headwinds, according to the governor who spoke in london. mark carney says that he expects consumption to slow in the week ahead. consumptionlow and ends up going faster than income reasont is a high-level why we see some slowing in
spending this year in the this is the core forecast. >> the japanese prime minister has urged asian nations to join the transpacific partnership. this goes counter to the trump opposition to the plan. >> achieving this as the foundation will help us go agreements.ter >> japan would like to be the standard bearer for the free trade regime. >> deutsche bank may withhold bonuses from bankers, according to the new york post, who cited
people. the paper said that 10% are expected to receive a bonus and the payments may be spread out over the next five years. powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. at can find more stories bloomberg. >> thank you very much. let's get back to where the action happens for the rest of the week with martin gilbert. take it away. >> thank you so much. >> this is the coldest it has ever been. >> you talk about global trade you need a little cold to
tell the truth a bit more. xi.esa may and which will you be listening to? >> both are important to global trade. this is important for us in the financial services and we have indication coming down. totheresa may says she wants forgo the single market. what does this mean for asset managers? for us, it will be ok and it harder for european fund
managers with structures. it will be more difficult for banks. >> will there be new funds? >> our structure is fine and banks will have to give some thoughts on the structure they will have in the single market. >> you are a banking ceo and today and be a speech will you head to europe? out wheree to work you are going and you have to plan for the worst and hope for
>> who do you think wins? think it will go with hsbc and they are ok with that. as long as they operate the branch model system, they will make a decision. you can trade throughout europe from there. about were talking mergers and acquisitions and the .pproach to look at have you been approached? >> not yet. no.
independence and we are probably looking to see if we can do some mergers and acquisitions. >> why? >> for you asian's, at the moment. there is a tough time for six or means thereand this needs to be some mergers in this business. >> would you buy or lease something in europe? thathave always said america is the holy grail for asset managers. ands a place you need to be asset managers are looking to tie up. >> there are questions about the
inauguration. one i will get to and we will see what the inauguration is really like and it is pretty exciting. >> do think there will be a rally on the back of taxctations with this repatriation? >> they are talking about doing the right things and the banks moves tod run with the do what he has been trying to for the last six years. i think that emerging markets are not going to benefit from see and i think we could
imports fromnd emerging markets. >> you say that you are looking for an asset manager. are you concerned about the regulation and paying more for assets? has nothingncy imminent on the acquisition front and i think that we need a out how we arek going to achieve that. you have to be there. >> you think a donald trump presidency can make the united states or america great again? >> at think the rest of the
world will follow and i think that he will get interest rates going back up in the united states and it will be good for the economy and the rest of the follow and there will ,e some protectionist measures but not as bad. >> thank you. are you flying directly to the inauguration? >> yes. >> i will hand it right to you in the studio. here the highlights of the schedule forh a the first chinese leader to address the world economic forum.
delivers a major speech and the u.s. reopens after the martin luther king day break. >> bloomberg brings you full coverage of the economic forum keenehour with tom hosting a panel on the future of finance at 7:30. >> tomorrow, we bring you a discussion on the crisis of the middle class. treasuryr u.s. secretary will be here on television and radio. >> up next, we speak to the ubs chairman for his first interview of the day. stay with us here on bloomberg.
seng is up and money is going in and it is 6:17 in london. let's get a bloomberg business flash. >> general motors plans to announce $1 billion in u.s. plans over several years and adding a thousand jobs. they say that there is accelerated pressure from the president elect. rolls-royce holdings has agreed to pay a hundred $7 million. will settlene maker
the charges and that our claims that the representative bribed foreign officials. the sanctions are the biggest effort issued against the u.k.. there has been an agreement to buy clayton williams energy to the acreage position with the shale formation. the assets have been coveted acquisition targets with the proximity to properties and that is your bloomberg news flash. >> thank you. francine. go back to >> thank you. welcomeery pleased to
-- we have heard from theresa may and she said she wants the u.k. to leave the market and renegotiate from scratch. >> wait for the details. i think that it has been clear that it is hard to renegotiate and we have seen this for many and it should be we have thend european market before we were compliant and comparable to european regulation and my view
has always been that you have to start somewhere new and it is pretty clear that this would be the status quo and i think they can negotiate many things, but it is important to renegotiate with the rest of the world and the europeans are in a campaign towards the end of the year with parallels and focuses on foreign relations. >> these elections you are talking about, the timeline of negotiation would be longer. do you try to speak to your employees? different, ifs you operate business. >> what is important for banks
casee option now at a, in we do not have the access to european markets and we don't ,ave this in the same fashion so we need to establish and we have done that and we have u.k..s to the >> there is no sense in talking about this now and the city of theon is a feature of options,nd we will get but let's see the final agreement. access as we have market , i think the pressure is not high and it is to create the
options. >> are there clear winners and losers? >> with all of these things, it is not good to start discussing the interim regime, but there will be new regulations over many years and i imagine a feature of this being an agreement on the relationship and the speed with which we will get there. they will change european and british laws. they area time where looking for light touch regulation with banks and it is a different playing field. >> my expectation is less and i doal regulation not think there will be parts
of. frank drawn back. the crisis showed that they need we would notand want to go back on things that were changed. long-term,um and there is a lot of capital and the further capital is not the it is a bit like monetary policy. the u.s. government is going to put in more fiscal and structural policy and rebalance the regulatory side. >> we will talk about your time are you looking at
cost-sharing? >> at the moment, you cannot grow with the interest rates and you cannot influence the revenues. the banks are consolidating and optimizing with joint ventures in many areas and it provides certain products. with cost synergy, you can look at the market infrastructure and the shared infrastructure with joints and these are ventures by the banks and, if banksf trading is high, working together can get that. consolidation? what is the solution?
>> first and foremost, the government will do a reduction of tax rates and infrastructure. fedwill see more and the always takes other policies into they will need less stimulus with the actions taken by government. draghi wanted to stay away from the election and he said not to ask for additional work and that it is up to government with europe facing deep political problems for all the elections that will happen with a td's of several elections to
get to government. politics is going to dominate for most of the year. predict political outcomes and markets are not , so at predict and these politics was -- will be at the forefront of the economy. thef you go diversion with federal reserve, does it mean dollar strikes? >> i don't think it means the meanand i think it would the economy would crumble and withorld is more coupled rate hikes this year and it will have an impact. >> the dollar will continue to
the and if they develop bond connection and china is deepening the markets. how do you stabilize? fear that the exchange rate may have them lose confidence and they need part of market, so financial the markets have corrected and china is looking for stability in the markets and they have the tools to achieve it. they can use monetary and fiscal policy to get this going.
on these the momentum non-domestic side and it depends and, in the end, most of what we will see is further integration in the free tode sound and asia is going become more dynamic. was huge populist uprisings. downgrade andt this came out yesterday. optimistic about this year. gloomy and mood is a problem in the
he finds a more dynamic market with the there are rates and few things that get the economy from strength to strength. areas of escalation -- it is an anti-globalization and that starts from scratch. >> i don't think it is true. people want cheap consumer products and electronics and to have tv producers
and it is just the opposite of that. we have to accept globalization and it is to everyone's benefit. this is going to impact negatively on the economy. is a chance here and there will be more chances going ahead and we should not push ourselves and we should manage the risk. is the riskou think coming out of the presidency? many of these things
of dp. >> thank you. stability and the chinese say they do not want that. hearing about the subject of globalization and the case for globalization needs to be articulated better in the context of what donald trump means for global trade. coming up, a relatively calm market. >> we will head back in here nsa on the first interview of the day. ahead of the speech in the
person familiar said that she will expect britain to leave a single market and the links with the customs union. >> the next is the u.s., the u.k. and brazil. is size of the penalty according to agency partners. they said the cash performance was better than expected. we have been hearing from the chairman of ubs, who talked about what the president wanted question isnd the fillingthey will go in
the cap left on the world stage. >> general motors plans to in plans andillion that is according to people familiar with the matter. they say that the investment is things approved before trump won the election. agreed to pays $807 million into bribery will look at the -- the penalty of 500 million pounds is the biggest sanction ever issued against a company in
the united kingdom. noble energy has agreed to expand and the deal will create andsecond largest physician this had been a coveted acquisition. there is high oil content. that is the bloomberg business/. >> to be clear, we were talking about rolls-royce earlier and $807 milliono pay into the allegations with the pride of a foreign officials. it is not clear which rolls-royce company they're talking about now. the recentlk about
on is clear and there is the iron ore market. the data withat the iron ore right now is quite high. me and this one to is the incredible burst to the outside with the market well supplied. something is going on and nobody can really explain it. people on the supply side thought. it will come back down. maybe not in this one.
the question now becomes where and, if you take a firminghow holdings are and before i let you go, the looking at median expectations and the second quarter of this year. of course, will have everything you need to know. , -- >> we could be heading for the brexit with gold, the yen, and the bond market. irony lost.
rallied and has there are shifts. i do like what we saw yesterday and we have an small amounts. >> absolutely. this hasoticed is that made clear that immigration is a priority and there will be a hard brexit. andle ask if this is new the economic data is holding. headline andhis people ask what has changed. see and,interesting to
here, thef the talk market has anticipated this. >> there is a lot of time to adjust with immigration as a hard line and it has been clear that this has been sacrificed and the headlines are just a ago of what we saw one week traders may not get any details and there will and it willt plan ultimately be a good thing. courthave the supreme sets to come through and it
ruling that goes against government. andle are upset by trump the rest of the brexit speech today with asian equities off here. >> definitely. we are approaching the trump inauguration and, especially after the press conference last any, trump did not outline concrete plans for stimulus and they bet this would deliver. he could deliver slower than expected. andprice and the positivity
trading andllar yen the ftse 100 with the basis back 20nd they can pull basis points. >> we have comments coming andugh with the chairman viewers talking about the subject of brexit. highlighting what could be a gain from both sides in the stick negotiation. will count as new news for markets around this conversation? if they say they are prepared not the market, is this qualifying as news? >> i think this is mostly priced
in. this will not run for a couple of days. i think that theresa may has made clear that her priority is immigration and she has not given details. there are firm details about what she means and how she plans to negotiate. there are parts of the economy she are most affected and has suggested this is a possibility. on thepe the market is same page is you. and joint, we go francine on the slopes. gilbertspoken to martin
guy: what brexit means. the prime minister beset by brexit priorities today. she is said to be ready to announce the u.k. will leave the single market and seek a new trading relationship with the bloc. anna: safety first. havens are sought as concerns mount. yen climbs for the seventh consecutive day, and the sterling rout causes. pauses. manus: the bank of england governor says u.k. consumers will face fresh headwinds this year. >> we are in a situation right now where for understandable
reasons business investment has been dampened by uncertainty, no t because -- there is access to finance, that there is uncertainty about what the relationship is going to be with our largest trading partner, and that is weighing on business investment. anna: and deutsche bank bonuses on hold. the lender may withhold 90% of cash incentive. francine: and live in doubt us, i am francine lacqua. xi jingping gets the spotlight in his first speech at the forum. the future of finance. the deutsche bank ceo joins our debate about the industry at 7:30 u.k. time. ins, we speak to the mlco his first interview of the day. ♪
manus: welcome to bloomberg daybreak: europe, our flight shape morning show on the slopes of devils. anna: let's welcome francine lacqua, at the world economic forum. francine, we have had a great first hour. what more have you got coming up? francine: we will be talking to the credit suisse ceo, and the brazilian finance minister, the bp ceo. minutes, wea couple will be talking to the ceo of enel. it's only four days until trump gets inaugurated. we'll talk about trade wars. manus: great interviews so far. we have discussed asset management and what brexit might mean. too gloomy so far. we look forward to the next couple of days of great interviews. let's break news for you now.
i have the auto sales for europe, hitting a nine-year high. a couple interesting facts coming out. 6.5% rise in volatility, 15.1 million cars sold in 2016. vw still holds on to the number one slot, with 24.1% of the market share. that is narrowing ever so slightly from 24.8%. demand surged by 14%. this is the third year of gains for the auto industry. we had a two decade low in 2013, and this comes in with a number two slice. a healthy set of numbers for the auto industry again, closing off what was quite a strong december. anna: sticking with things for sale, but of a different nature, the online shop reporting numbers. we'ree came in at --
getting numbers for the fourth quarter and full-year. we're also being told that the togin is adjusted to 7.5% 7.9%, expanding their fulfillment footprint. this is the online shop that brings rams to the internet -- brings brands to the internet, primarily shoes and apparel. this is around 6.1% international, facing a challenge from amazon. one internet expert business taking on another, but also slower custer recruitm customer. a 25% annual sales target. we're also getting an update from the tobacco space. manus: we are, indeed.
reynolds is the u.s. company that they already have a percentage of. it looks like they are going to buy the balance of their holding anin reynolds. that would give them earnings, which would be lucrative. they reckon they can say $400 million per year in synergies, which is part of the driver. $59 six four cents, mid single-digit earnings by the third year. looks like the consolidation is to be done. anna: and the deal target is set to beat the weight and cost of capital. and they are still committed to dividend policy with a payoff ratio of 65%. details continuing to come through, hitting the bloomberg on bat. let's have a look at where we are expected to open up the markets.
a little bit of a risk off feel, isn't it, when we look at the asian equity session. manus: absolutely. if the search for havens. we set it in the headlines -- the trump rhetoric is rising, theresa may set to set out a 12 point plan. which signs could be lurching toward hard brexit, a single european market, staying in a different fashion. we have equities all away across the european numbers, down .2%. this manifests itself in the risk radar. yen fores into the the seventh day in a row. it's really the fx prison that is capturing the real, daily volatility in terms of markets. dollar-yen is moving higher. anna: and the gold price up by .7%, this appetite for haven assets on the day when theresa may is due to speak, and as we approach inauguration day. now let's get you caught up on
news.loomberg first word the u.k. is likely to pull out of the eu single market and over home links asthe u.k. is likelyt of the eu single market and over home links as it seeks a new trading relationship, according to a person familiar with the matter. that is the message theresa may is expected to deliver today as she sets out her plan for brexit. this will come as a blow to business groups pressing for a close relationship to europe. manus: and what had been the backbone of u.k. economic resilience faces fresh headwinds, according to the bank of england governor. speaking last night in london, mark carney says that while he expects consumption to slow, it won't seize up completely. slow,sumption tends to because normally what's happening is consumption ends up running faster than income, given the overall growth in the economy. and that is one of the reasons -- that's a very high level reason, but that is one of the reasons why we see some slowing
in the paces household spending, slowing in the pace of the economy. that's a, slowing not a softening. has urgedzo abe asian nations to join the transpacific partnership as early as possible. his comments during a visit to vietnam run in opposition to donald trump's vision. >> [speaking japanese] >> keeping tpp as the foundation going forward, i should like to strive toward greater, high quality, ambitious agreements such as our set. japan would like to be the standardbearer for the free-trade regime at all times. manus: deutsche bank may withhold bonuses from as many as 90% of its bankers and traders, according to the "new york post," citing unidentified people based on internal talks.
the paper said only the top 10% are expected to receive a bonus for 2016, and that those payments may be spread over the next five years. deutsche bank spokespeople declined to comment. anna: global news, 24 hours a day, powered by over 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . manus: let's get straight back to francine lacqua, in davos. thshe is joined on set. francine? francine: thank you so much. three more days after this of live coverage of the world economic forum. two big speeches you are mentioning -- the chinese president later on, the first time he has shown up in davos, and then the theresa may speech in london. we are joined by the ceo of enel. thank you for joining us, good morning. thank you for braving the cold. when you look at the share price
-- it is of the highest it has which has ledar, you into bonds and equities, in the highly integrated utility once. can this continue? will your price go even higher? startedinly, the price peaking when we saw this rotation, but i think we were also lik lucky. consensus of analysts sees the price go up quite a bit. we seem to have a long way to go. i consensus of think it will coe as we deliver the plan. the market will understand the value visa fee other choices. francine: part of your plan is based on the emerging markets, right, increasing. especially in south america. do you see that is unjust because of trade wars between donald trump and mexico, between donald trump and other south american countries?
>> well, mexico is in a peculiar situation because of the nafta agreement that links it with the u.s.. other countries in the americas do not have such an agreement. they do not seem to be at all targeted by this kind of propaganda that mr. trump has started to deliver. actually, we see a bit of positive, if they pick up the economy, the economic side will pick up, the commodities start to go up again. most of them will have a boost in their economic cycle, which for us is good. francine: do you think trade wars are on the way? if you see the backlash we have seen with the election of donald trump, with brexit, do you see it as affecting emerging markets? >> not so far, but they could be affected if this spreads. let's assume that there will be repercussions on the two gip or things like that -- the ttip or things like that.
overall, this market seems to be breathing quite well in the turmoil. i think china has a lot to do with it. if china's economy continues to push and pull, they will keep growing. francine: give me a sense of how you expect a a lot of the energy markets in europe to do in 2017. >> it started very well because i think yous -- but cannot bet do that to go on for the rest of the year. 2017 is really going to be a similar year for the market. it's to finding its market policy -- it's defining its market policy, and we expect action from the commission to come into play. it's on to be a critical year for the design of the future. francine: is this an inflection year? that could go either very well or very badly? >> no, i think it can be a good
year. it has had bad years in the past. i think 2017 looks quite good from our standpoint. francine: can you update us on offers for power stations in russia? >> i think we lack one. it seems we are getting it this week. hesitant, because we wanted to sell only one power station. we got offers for the whole package, so we are not sure what to do. it's a 50-50 decision. we have not yet made up our mind. francine: are you leaning toward one option? is it better to sell everything? >> no, i don't think so at this moment, frankly speaking. i think it would be a mistake to sell out of russia. francine: how will you make your decision? is it on price? >> it's probably price, partly the outlook of the market. it seems quite depressed and
difficult for the last few years. now, maybe, it is one of the positives of the presidency situation. we are inclined to see what happens. we don't know. francine: do you think there will be enoug a offern for whatu are trying to sell? >> we got one, but we got an offer for the whole package. we are not going to sell the whole package. it's a matter of price, as always, but also value. francine: we talked a little bit about the energy industry, but what about consumer prices, and the impact that has on how much i get for gas? >> 2017 is going to be a very heavy election-year for many countries. i think that will really influence the economy of the eurozone, for reasons that have
to do with consumer sentiment and real stuff. i think the announcement of the u.k. will also be important. frankly, i hope it will be picking up inflation and more consumer spending. francine: the u.k. announcement you say is important, because of the turmoil. you want to directly impacted, by that may have an impact on animal spirit? >> yes. i think it will finally get off this era of fuzziness, what is going to happen, are we going to stay, are we going to go out? sentiment to finally decide which direction. francine: thank you so much for joining me. that was the ceo of enel. plenty more great interviews coming up. we will speak to the credit suisse ceo, and we have the speech by the president of china, with the plan on the future of finance.
anna: thank you very much. francine lacqua, talking about brexit, hsbc chairman, still talking about brexit in doubles. -- in davos. now, more brexit to come. manus: can't get enough. hard brexit, hard times? that is possibly what's ahead in theresa may's speech on britain's future relationship with the eu. in got boss.k this is bloomberg. ♪
there. 7:19 if you are in london. let's get the bluebird business flash with juliette saly. has raised the cash portion of its rate for full control of reynolds american. it is offering to pay about $49.4 billion in a deal that would create the world's largest the public retreated tobacco company, as unifier brands like lucky strike in camel. it is a leader in the growing u.s. market for e-cigarettes. general motors plans to announce today that it will invest $1 billion in u.s. plants over several years, according to a person familiar with the matter. they see the investment, which is being accelerated amid pressure from the president-elect, is related to building products that were in the works and approved before trump won the election in november. holdings have agreed to pay about $807 million to
resolve long-running investigations into bribery allegations. the jet engine maker will settle with the u.k.'s fraud office in the u.s. justice department over claims its representatives private foreign officials to win business. the british penalty of 500 million pounds plus interest is the biggest ever sanction issued against the company by the u.k. noble energy has agreed to buy clayton williams for $2.7 billion in stock and cash to expand in america's shale. the deal will create the second largest acreage position in the southern delaware basin. the assets have been a coveted acquisition target because of the overlap and proximity to its own properties and their high oil content. that is your bloomberg business flash. manus: thank you very much. let's get back out to francine lacqua, standing by with roland rudd. francine: thank you.
we're indeed with roland rudd, chairman of open britain. thank you so much for making the time to see us. we are expecting theresa may to deliver a speech on where she sees the brexit negotiations going, so let's start on the premise that she is ready, and this is what we are expecting her to say, that we believe the single market. what does it mean? >> it would be a massive disappointment to leave the single market. thi s was in the manifesto. leaving the european union happened because of a referendum, and the single market was always expected -- that was the jewel in the crown, we would always stay. if we are going to leave it, then it is beholden to the government to find an alternative agreement that is as good as that, and we will want to hold the government to account. the chancellor said very clearly, nobody voted to make a score. -- make us poorer.
francine: what kind of agreement could replace it in enough time for it not to mean that ceos move people outside the u.k.? >> i honestly don't know. that's very much for holding on the government to come up with that. but i would say this -- in terms of when we are trying to deal with certainty, one of the most important things of a transitory arrangement -- we heard from our former representatives of the eu that this could take up to a decade to actually organize. in the meantime, we have got to be able to stay in the market. we have to trade as we do. by far, the biggest amount of trade of anyone else. america is 17%, nothing like as important as the ed. that transitory arrangement has to be in place. francine: let's say she doesn't talk about this transition area agreement today, and she says the negotiation process -- do
you think ceos will start from this afternoon, making contingency plans? they probably don't even have two years. >> it will depend very much in terms of what the follow-up is, into terms of what we learn from the details behind the 12 points. what they will be arguing very strongly is a reminder that we are already in the best trading arrangement with the eu, and that if you are going to upset that because of various ideological concerns about ecj or free movement, then you have to come up with something that will be as good as, and that is the bit nobody knows, because nobody has been able to come up with any arrangement that matches membership in the single market. francine: if the supreme court comes out in the next couple days or weeks, saying that parliament needs to trigger article 50, would that be a scar for businesses? >> not really. it's simply an understanding
that the democratic process demands there should be a vote at the beginning, and of vote at the end. it remains to be seen whether some mps who are very concerned about trading arrangements actually want to amend article -- theyrms of understand they have to vote with it, but talk about clauses with the arrangement we have, and having full participation in the market could be one. but the vote is just the democratic process. francine: if there is no transition area agreement, what are we expecting? >> it's difficult to put a number on it, but it would be devastating. we would literally come off a cliff edge. this is not about making forecasts that sound frightening. this is all information based on the bank of england and very, very clear economic forecasts. francine: could he not become a tax haven, like monaco or san marino? idea could, but -- the
that being the singapore of the eu is as good as the arrangement we have now, where our trade for the eu forces everything else, that we can freely trade -- it's not just tariff barriers, it's nontariff barriers, in terms of rules and regulations. for our service economy, which is 80% of our economy, which is so important. as offshore singapore may be, it will have to come up with some extraordinary crediting arrangement with the eu to ensure we don't lose those aspects of the single market that have been so important to our prosperity. francine: thank you so much for joining us. roland rudd, the chairman of open britain. i'll handed back to you, and later on we have a great banking panel. will hear the chinese president .thank you very much anna:. that'll do it for daybreak
guy: tuesday morning, welcome to bloomberg markets. this is the european open. the cash session coming up shortly. i'm guy johnson alongside matt miller in berlin, francine lacqua over in davos. one big story we are watching this morning. th u.k.e's theresa may is said to announce plans to quit the european union and strike a completely new trading relationship with a bloc, but how long will that take? on the same subject, consumer crunch. mark