tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg January 18, 2017 11:00am-12:01pm EST
bank stocks rebounding a little today after president-elect trump rattled the market by calling the dollar to strong trade yesterday banks had their worst day is june. let's head to the economic forum in davos. thank you vonnie, jamie dimon thank you for joining bloomberg. let's start with brexit. before the vote you went to britain and you talked about moving 4000 jobs. since then you have taken a wait-and-see attitude to what happens. jamie: this week -- >> theresa may has said it will not be in a single market, the customs union. are you close to making a decision on what you would do?
jamie: trying to have a transition period. wes whole transition period, have the ability, time to move people, build systems, acquire real estate varied it's not up to us. the british people will decide and negotiate with the eu. we simply have to accommodate the laws of the land, prison and the eu, and that will determine how many jobs and how many people and how many things have to move right before thousand was an estimate in time. -- move. 4000 was an estimate in time. >> when she started she made it clear that she is higher enticing immigration over the single market and doesn't want to give a special deal for financial services. you are a global bank. you hire a lot of nontraditional tumor there. generally britain is heading in the wrong direction for jpmorgan
and other banks. jamie: london is a fabulous financial center. we have huge skills to recruit the people of europe. --n they change the rules yes, it will reduce jobs there. the brits will decide how they want to compete around the world. it's not up to me, it's a to the prime minister. thet the moment it seems big american banks might pull jobs back to new york. jamie: it looks like there will be more jobs than we hoped before. >> coming back to new york as opposed to -- jamie: we don't know yet. it depends what the law is. the eu could put in very stringent rules which require jobs to move into the eu. they could be flexible and allow equivalency between the u.s. and europe. it's 27 nations. this is negotiation that will
take quite a while. >> another election coming up this year, france. have you factored in the possibility of a le pen presiden cy? things about the brexit's i worried about wasn't just the effect on britain. the long-term health of europe. wishful thinking, which i was a , that brexit would cause the european union to look at what went wrong and fix it. what went wrong is going wrong everybody. >> europe is not fixing their problems in response to brexit. jamie: the same political things about immigration, who controls the laws of the country, how much in flexibility and capital labor you'll have. the euro zone may not survive. that is very complex. >> what a pessimistic view of
europe. jamie: yes, it's a long-term pessimistic view of europe. i think things will have to change, to be more competitive globally. they are doing ok right now. i say this out of respect for the european people. but they will have to change. may be forced by politics, by leadership. he will have to see. >> are there any leaders inside europe carry that mandate of change in a positive direction? angela merkel is one of the most competent political leaders on the planet today. she is up for election in the eurozone. >> the europe you described which is is performed, your faith in her may not be entirely justified. jamie: we will see. >> can we turn to the country on the other side of the atlantic, donald trump has arrived -- must
talk about him changing some financial regulations, improving things from the point of view of global banks. is there a particular thing you want him to change on the financial side? jamie: one is legislation. regulators can change a lot of things easily, compliance or cost. certain rules about lending, how you lose your capital. if you go to all the bankers i know and set reduce this, reduce that, would you be more aggressive in lending? yes, i would. i think that would help the economy. people asked me about dodd-frank. no one in their rational mind can say everything was done and how it was done was done right. nor the synchronized, coordinated, code -- consistent, coherent. open it up, look at what worked,
look what didn't, re-calibrate it. >> what would be top of your list in terms of change? america's -- we do a lot of what is called gold plating capital. liquidity ratios. in the u.s. there is 2.5 trillion sitting at the central park -- bank called excess reserves. in the old days, excess reserves meant you are free to lend it. we are not free to lend that. $400 billion is j.p. morgan's. regulatory requirements are deeply affecting monetary policy. i'm not saying get rid of liquidity requirements. calibrate them
and see how they may reduce lending and make a bit of a change. >> a problem with liquidity rather than capital. calibrate them and see how they may reduce >> capital too. they have this thing called operational capital which we did not have in 2007. jpmorgan did not need money, wasn't bailed out. we now have almost three times as much capital. i'm not denying there aren't operational risk. we also earn a lot of money. hasy company in the world operational risk. i idl -- idle capital is sitting there and it's going to be sitting there forever. billion.m has 400 it simply doesn't need it right that is direct money. >> which you can't land. jamie: can't use that all. having pretty good earnings. your share prices are high. some people would say the good
times are back on wall street despite this regulation. you have just had predicted earnings. goldman has had good earnings. some people with the good times are back on wall street despite the regulation. >> a long time on wall street, a lot of banks are not learning adequate capital. we are doing fine, but the fact is, if you look at the banking industry, i think there is a way to let them do their job. >> you are sitting here surrounded by other -- global finance. it is divided very much by region. in a different world, you would be thinking about buying a european bank is not a source of interest rate -- english radio? >> if. we are on the ground in -- the most part in
investment thinking, we can go organically. we don't need to acquire. are you saying, is it hurting my strategy? not really. europe, you dot more consolidated banks and more european banks. it has kind of gone backwards. where there regulators and european politicians decide want to go back to common market, which i think they should, by the way. that it is going the complete other direction. be deutsche bank, which was a direct rival to you. it to you feel that that has gone back a bit? >> i have respect for my competitors. they are having a tough time. this goes back to capital diversification. one of our strengths is we are hugely diversified. ranking, andglobal
that is a source of strength. we never lost money in the quarter. that is part of the reason. diversification doesn't count capital, by the way. i don't want to talk about deutsche bank in particular -- if they were able to expand into other businesses, they would have a more balanced a business model. i do think that caused a bit of a problem. to some of the banks here, american banks, they seem to have a mixed view on a donald trump. loosenone hand, he could regulation, on the other hand, people worried he may take take a nationalistic view and champion american banks against other things. is that something you are worried about? >> no. the positive attributes that people feel about the trump administration is tax reform, which we definitely need. a growth policy in the united states -- growth in the united
states is good for everybody. it helps drive its overgrowth. aople are worried about little bit, and i think it may be blown out of proportion. i think they are listening to tweets and one-liners, statements like that, which you know, the president-elect has said, i negotiated that way. he will tell you he does that. you have a very serious people who do these jobs now. i know steve mnuchin, gary cohen, these are successful, smart, mobile -- >> you tend to take a much more aggressive attitude towards china. there is an economic adviser. you can look at china and they there are some flaws and we should do some things. i'm saying the statements and real policy has yet to be done. the real policy would be rational and thoughtful. you could look at any trade and say it was not completely fair to america.
the person who has come here to defend free to trade was actually xi jinping. youou worry about that? do worry about the chinese-american side of it? that donald trump forces thinking to do something -- >> i am not worried about it. i think people are -- the president-elect also knows -- he negotiates with people, but when you build the building you need engineers, contractors, design work, that is what the trade policy is. it would be much more detail. i am hopeful that is what will happen. i don't know for a fact. >> trade is deftly the area that worries you most? >> think they are focusing more on the one-liners and the fact that there are a lot of people
who -- they have been around the world. they understand for and seize and global markets. it just give it a little time to work up a team and give a more discreet and detailed policy. >> jamie: america has peaceful neighbors in canada and mexico. >> at the moment. jamie: the wisest, deepest capital market, the test universities, innovations in the law, it's really good. you look at china, they are surrounded by north korea, vietnam, philippines, afghanistan, india. pakistan, india, russia. have 500 million people living in poverty. they don't have innovation. our would love to have
capital markets, our universities, how rule of law. they say this. about their corruption and inefficiency of their enterprises, the need for market reform. they have a ways to go. specifically about -- we want to see china do well. the chinese authorities have been quite intelligent navigating that country from where they started. >> put on the financial systems -- about i would be worried it. it is a legitimate thing you worried about. the loans you can roll over. loans to nowhere. i think they have the handle a rather large problem. if you speculate -- >> you have the reserves to deal with that. jamie: we won't have to use the reserves. a still have $3 trillion of reserves. they can just recapitalize the banks. .hey can't do it forever
at one point that could cause that recession which they really don't want to have. handle a rather you talk about the 3 trillion reserves. the united states is zero. that's a lot of money, $3 trillion. they had been using that. they've been manipulated up. think to be peaceful, friendly to the neighbors, not to have a shocking financial event -- >> what do you cs the future of chinese banking? -- see as the future of chinese banking? jamie: in 20, 30 years the likely outcome, it will house 35% of the fortune 3000. homehave the largest market in the world, a huge advantage for american banks. you go back 50, 100 years ago, their largest banks already earn
more money than we do. you go back 30 years, they were in one country, now they are in 60 or 70 countries. they have a good, strategic reason to do it. it's kind of no different than what citi and j.p. morgan did years ago. they bank them wherever they go. they will be competitors. to me that's a given. in the great global investment banking business, it will be tough, but they can buy someone. they have huge financial wherewithal. >> buying anything is difficult. jamie: they're already doing some of these things.
and they should. you'd be thinking, i want to expand, i want to grow, i want to serve my clients, and one day i want to be knocking at jpmorgan's door. version onguing which to end. jamie dimon, thank you very much. vonnie: thanks to john mikel suite here. dimon.course, ceo jamie mark: coming up, the opec secretary-general joins us. will opec members stick to their agreement and cut productions? this is bloomberg. ♪
now, oil prices are lower today. both tumblingde today earlier on air, international energy agency chief addicted u.s. shale production will rebound strongly in light of opec -- predicted u.s. shale production will rebound strongly. to say i'm joined by the opec secretary-general, mohammed barkindo, and davos. you just got back from caracas. thank you for joining us. >> thank you for having me once again. onthe opec deal seems to be a positive start with saudi arabia and russia both cutting. this morning,t the report shows the market needs about 31.3 million barrels a day. you are targeting 31.8. does the deal go far enough? all factors taken into
account, so far, so good. and the projections upon which the decision was taken, both in november and december, have been by the outlooks of the various organizations, opec, going forward. of course we are seeing demand rising steadily. are being made by the 24 participating countries in this new broad platform of producing countries making tremendous offers to meet their commitments. i think it's pretty much at the moment, to talk about whether the numbers are sufficient or not. we are 2 weeks into this agreement, if you like. >> and you are meeting again this weekend? >> yes, sunday, the 22nd of
january, to look at the framework for the compliance, the compliance mechanism upon which the committee will use to enforce compliance by all participating countries. >> how will you be assessing that compliance? >> the framework is work in progress. consultation is ongoing. i have recently met with the chairman of the joint ministry, monitoring committee. we've gone through a number of drafts, and we have shared with some of the ministers who met in of a dobby recently. i am just coming from caracas, where i met the newly appointed minister nelson martinez who will also be a member of this committee. when we convene at the inaugural weting on sunday in vienna,
will be able to adopt a mechanism -- >> i want to ask you about shale. the saudi oil minister, bp's ceo, both said shale oil is back at $50 a barrel. how is opec going to deal with that? >> for us, as we have said, times without number, shale oil has an important role to prepare in the global energy mix. we are continuing to see rise in demand, medium to long-term forecast shows robust growth for oil. the conventional's will be called upon by consumers to meet this rising demand. >> i want to talk to you about saudi arabia. they are saying they don't see a need at this moment to extend the opec deal beyond 6 months.
do you agree? >> we have to wait until opec convenes on the 25th of may, and possibly meet with the 11 participating countries that form this grand platform, to review thepossibly meet with the joint declaration which would be and based onhen, the consideration of the market a decision will be taken on this decision. >> i know opec does not target oil price. but, are we at the level the ministers want to see? >> we are focusing on the level of stocks and we are cautiously optimistic with the numbers we are seeing including the numbers for the united states, released today by the iaea.
the principal objective of the joint declaration is to accelerate this stop drawdown, and this stop drawdown would eventually bring this market into balance, and the rebalancing of this market will ensure the emergence of the equilibrium price. we are far away from the equilibrium price. >> and the equilibrium price, for you, and equilibrium price would be higher or lower? you at then tell moment, the rebalancing process is ongoing. stocks are gradually being drawn and the market rebalancing is also on pause. and, the equilibrium price will after we have achieved the objective of bringing down
this top overhead to the five-year industry. >> that would mean higher oil prices. >> we have not -- >> i understand. thank you so much. that was the secretary-general of opec joining us in davos for an exclusive interview. mark: great chat. davos.rie horton in are up. they were down for a third day, worst run since november. sterling is down today after the biggest gain since 1993 yesterday. close is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
earlier for the third day. looks like we might see a small gain, up by 1/10 of 1%. pearson, biggest education company in the world trade shares down by 31%. $1.8 billion. wide profit market value, lowest since 2009. shares halted in volatility, profit forecast it predicted years of gloom in the u.s. education market, forcing it to slash its dividend and put its stake in penguin random house -- penguin. random house up for sale too. a complete surprise. his wages,ment, is excluding bonuses in the last three months. the highest level since 2005. 2.7%. the economy overall losing fewer jobs than expected, wage growth picking up as well suggesting the market post, post-brexit
remains resilient. yes, fl by now thousand. -- fell by 9000. sincerowth highest level 2015, the job market looks in good shape. biggest gain for sterling against the dollar since 1993. gain against the dollar after the brexit speech by prime minister theresa may. interesting comments by various houses, bank of america, merrill lynch says the worst for sterling likely over for now. it's a bushy says brexit concerns may have eaten the near term. hsbc forecast further depreciation given political uncertainty and a wider external imbalance. sterling dollar every day going back to 1992. we saw u.s. dollar
strength once again today after a couple days of weakness there. that is a little bit thanks to sterling's weakness, we are seeing it up by 4/10 of 1%. strength for the japanese yen -- i'm sorry, weakness after it hit 112 and change yesterday. look at that, gold is down. still pretty strong. let's switch up and go to cmm, company market movers, before we had to first word. index makingis the the biggest sort of dent in equity trading today. it's up another 3/10 of 1%. dave rosenberg says it is overbought. more signs of u.s. dollar strength there, the 10 year yield in the u.s. trading at 2.371%. courtney donohoe has more from our newsroom. courtney: the british supreme court will hold down its ruling in the brexit case next tuesday,
the issue whether parliament should have a final say before the u.k. formally begins the process. is expected to start in the next couple of months. a suicide bomber in a bomb filled vehicle attacked a camp in northern mali. more than 100 soldiers were wounded. while there was no immediate claim of responsibility, suspicion quickly fell on islamic extremist herbs operating in the area and they oppose a 2015 peace agreement. decideorea will now whether the samsung groups heir apparent should be arrested in an influence scandal. is being investigated for bribery, embezzlement, and perjury as part of the scandal that led to the impeachment of south korea's president. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. davos,et's go back to
and turned to the hotel industry. faces a number of challenges from geopolitical threats to new forms of competition. erik schatzker is at the world economic forum in davos. the ceo ofere with hilton worldwide, the man who that wastel company going through awfully tough times and turned it into the most successful lbo of all time. it's great to see you here. >> thanks for having me. pessimism is pervasive here in davos. how do you feel heading into the rest of 2017? >> i hope i don't sound like a pollyanna, but i'm optimistic. i think it's well founded. our business is doing great, we are coming off one of the most successful years in the history of the company. we just finished sending two companies out of hilton. the company we took public at the end of 2013 is now three public companies and hilton, the
core hilton park and hilton grand vacations, both of these companies are off to a roaring start. we launched a new brand last year, the most successful brand launched in our history, the most successful brand launch in the history of the business. we signed 400 deals in the first year. and, we did more on the development side than we've ever done. we signed more rooms, over 100,000 rooms that went into archived line last year. we started 75,000 rooms and opened more than one hotel a day. we opened 50,000 rooms. so, i'm optimistic in the sense that -- we had one good year means we will always have a good year, but we have a fair amount growth sideon the
coming into this year. while there is pessimism in davos, i remain on the optimistic side. erik: what about the macro backdrop? the unitedlk about states. a lot of people are talking about it with everything that's going on growth side coming into this year. while there is pessimism in davos, politically. goingtimistic that what's that business sentiment -- i think the market dynamic reflects this, the market being up 6% or 8% since the election -- i think there is more optimism than we've that busine- i think the market dynamic reflects this, the seen in the business community. if i look at our business last year, we have a pretty good year on same-store growth. what was really holding it up was leisure business. leisure business is only 25% of our business. 75% of our business is business traveler of some sort, and that was weakening throughout the year because there was nervousness around the election, regulatory environment. erik: have you seen it turn already? >> we have seen it turn. and that would be early days. break out the party. we have certainly seen some good telltale signs that the
corporate business is starting to turn around. when you have optimism -- the psychology and corporate america being a little bit more optimistic, why, because i think there's a believe that the regulatory environment is going to be more business friendly. i think there's a believe that there's going to be tax reform. i think there is a believe that it's even possible that we will get infrastructure spending which we desperately need, and would be a boost to the economy. with those things as a backdrop of sentiment and a more positive to,hology, i think it has unless something changes, ultimately lead to executives investing more. and they have plenty of capacity. means more more, it jobs, it means more demand for hotel rooms, which means it's good for us, on top of new unit growth which is very strong. at a company like
yours paying a tax rate in the 40's. makes you think you have to be excited about that. our cash tax rates in the low to mid-20's. we pay a lot of taxes, no question. federal tax rate for companies dropped 25%, what would the impact on earnings power going to be? >> it's great for us. you are talking hundreds of millions of dollars potentially it available capital to reinvest. if you ripple throughout the economy, you are talking billions -- hundreds of billions of dollars. the other thing is getting money home. you've talked to a lot of other folks today. repatriation of all the money that is stuck overseas, could be a huge boon to capital spending and investment in the united states. not all of it will go back into the system. but a percentage of it is.
erik: hilton has been less willing than marriott to pay to grow. is that going to change given where you are and where you're valuation is, given the unit growth you are generating and the cash that comes with it? >> no. marriott one way or another, you can ask them. our point of view is that organic growth is a better way to grow. in our business, but we have a tremendous amount of scale. --n you have the pipeline when we talk about growing, it's about taking our existing brand and pulling them in the right places, the right partners. as we add nwe brands, we are getting ready to launch a new brand in the very short term, we really like to curate them around exactly what our customers want. we do a huge amount of research around what customers want. rather than, in my opinion,
buying other brands that have already predefined themselves, we would rather define it around the customer. it's obviously working, in the sense that not only did we deliver -- we are delivering great returns to shareholders. when we grow organically, it's essentially 100% margin, infinite growth business, and we are leading the industry in growth without buying. we grew six by 6% in unit growth last year, essentially without buying a thing. a brand, buying a hotel, we grew 6.6%. it's a really compelling model. why would i change it? erik: where is there room for a new concept? where is there an unexploited niche? >> you will have to wait on that. there are a number which i've talked about publicly.
there are probably other soft brands that we could do, curio being a four-star soft brand. there are other things we can do with the high end of lifestyle space. on the edge of your seat as far as what we are going to do next. we have five rants -- brands we are incubating at the moment, all of which is being driven by what our customers tell us that they want from us. so, we'll -- erik: will we see them all this year? >> no. try and make it look easy. we do what we have done. havee last few years we organically lost 40 brands, all of which have been successful. time,t to do it one at a give them their proper birthright, and make sure they are working. the magic as i was describing over organic growth, we're depending on the use of
third-party capital. the reason people are investing in our brand is because we have the highest average market share of anybody in the state. that's because we pay great attention to what the product is, the service, however commercial ends are delivering profitablity. they make money. they get the returns they want. if we rush it and we don't get capital, the source of would eventually dry up. then organic growth would be harder. we are going to do it the right way, one at a time, and get them right. erik: so nice of you to spend time with me. vonnie, that is the ceo of hilton worldwide. go slow. do it right. don't screw it up. vonnie: great advice. that is our erik schatzker in davos. onebeacon insurance group, a
democrats can get together. he was ultimately majority leader. he's seen his way through a fair number of transitions. thank you, welcome to bloomberg. washington has changed quite a bit since you have come to washington for the first time. is it possible at this point for republicans and democrats to come together for the good of the country? >> i think it's possible. he will take leadership great leadership in washington begins at the white house. the president-elect come friday has to reach out to congress and communicate with them. i would urge him to meet with the bipartisan leadership at least twice a month. every morning congress is in session, the republican or bipartisan leadership met with reagan. the president will have to provide leadership. people need to develop chemistry with the leaders. hand,yan is a really good
he's very knowledgeable on policy. mitch mcconnell is the expert on the rules of the senate. he needs to give some direction but he also needs to listen to leadership,f the the talents that those do have. >> you emphasize bipartisanship. people who are not in washington say, the republicans control both houses. they leadership, the talents that those do contr. you don't need so much bipartisanship anymore. are they wrong? >> they are wrong. you need bipartisanship could you need to reach out to the other side. -bipartisanship. you need to reach out to the other side. they delayed some of the hearings on the cabinet. senator schumer appreciated that. one of the problems with obamacare was it did not get a single republican vote. if my friend had been secretary of hhs, that bill would have been different and probably would've had more republican votes. when you have one party control, there is a danger of overplaying your hand and just saying, we are going to do it our way regardless.
i have found that anytime i could reach out to the other side, whether i was in the house to try to bring in a bipartisan group, to try to bria bipartisan group, it was better for the legislative process and better for the country. >>. about specific programs, infrastructure spending. this is something the president-elect has emphasized, and something that people on your side of the aisle -- republicans expressed reservations about. what is the likelihood of a real infrastructure spending bill? >> there are concerns about how big it is and how much it might andto our already huge debt deficit. you need to use common sense. you need to come up with ways to help pay for it. we are long overdue on infrastructure across the board. i'm talking roads, bridges, airports, you name it. that was never a partisan issue. do you want safe roads and bridges? yes. do you want safe aviation control in space of our
together, maybe just move out some of the edges of a building might be done in the house of representatives. it should and could become a bipartisan bill, depending on how they dial up the numbers. i think there's a very strong chance we will get that done this year and it will be good for the economy and jobs. does it have to be neutral as a practical matter? >> i've always preferred that, but no. if you do it in the right way, and it creates the job and growth creation you are trying to get, that's what we did in the reagan years. that's what we did with bill clinton, and we did with george bush. you need to make sure you pay attention to the overall cost. it's more important that you lower the corporate rate. the money we have parked overseas because of our tax policies -- i think they can get that done. >> a final issue that has very much been talked about the trouble administration as it
comes in is trade. to what extent does congress need to go along with the president-elect's plans? >> i've dealt with 7 presidents, actually 8 if you count obama. whether its governors or first-term senator's, when they come to washington, they may think they know everything about what is supposed to happen. they are going to learn, and president trop will learn -- trump will learn as he goes along how far he can go and if he is smart, he will listen to the wisdom of the leaders of congress who have been there on both sides of the aisle. i was a free trader. i voted for every free trade agreement when i was in the senate. we eventually work that one out too. for him to say we need to take a look at these trade agreements ago. did nafta 26 years i helped work on it when bill clinton was president. can we look at it and make sure
it's fair to america and fair to canada and mexico too? i'm very much an advocate of trying to see if we can fix the trade agreement with asian countries, 12 of them, plus the united states. can we find a way to make them more acceptable? we do need more transparency, and we also need to fix some of the issues. no trade bill is perfect. but we need trade. donepresident trump has business all over the world he knows we need to be able to sell our products. agriculture, oil and gas, you name it. i spoke to a lot of european union people last week who said, we are real interested in lng from america. products,ort that which will help them to be less dependent on russia. there's a lot of moving parts here. it won't be easy, there will be mistakes made. i sense that maybe we've reached a crisis point, and maybe, just
to changeare going the dynamics in washington, break the gridlock, and do good things for the country. thank you so much for being here. lott.of wisdom from trent vonnie: thank you, david. all week, taking a look at the key issues facing the incoming trump administration. "with all due respect lott. " special coverage continues at 9:00 p.m. eastern -- eastern. this is bloomberg. ♪
go. worst run since november. ahead of the big ecb, gains in london. ftse rises. let's get to sterling, look at sterling. biggest gain since 1993 after theresa may's brexit speech. finishing up with those bond inlds, how did the 10-year london fair up in germany, a been spain, -- up in spain, up in italy. "bloomberg markets" continues. this is bloomberg. ♪
we are covering stories from washington to davos this hour. here's what we're watching. market stocks are mixed. treasuries are falling, the dollar gaining a reversal of yesterday's trade. goldman sachs and citigroup estimates thanks to a bond trading revival. shares of both are lower today. the world economic forum in davos, including interviews with ken schwarzman and jamie dimon, that's coming up in the next two hours. first, a look at the markets. julie? julie: stocks little changed today. we are not seeing anything big to move the needle in terms of equity trading going one way or another. very littlenasdaq changed. there are some interesting movements within subgroups of the major averages.