tv With All Due Respect Bloomberg January 19, 2017 9:00pm-10:01pm EST
maybe the last couple of days are having an impact. rishaad: now, retailo china prices, there we go. gp, looking atl 6.8% for fourth-quarter gdp, better than expected. retail sales, industrial production, painting a picture of that chinese economy, and tom mackenzie in beijing. number, the full-year gdp number four china is 6.7% for 2016. the fourth quarter number surprising to the upside, up 6.8%. that full-year numbers squarely in the middle of the government's growth target. said, more data points as
well, industrial production came in up 6%, full gear. corridor, 6% versus estimates of 6.1%. retail sales for december up 10.9%, beating estimates of 10 point 7%. ,ull-year 2016 up 10.4% suggesting china's consumers remain relatively bullish. wage hikes are starting to come off and there is a question of whether curbs on property prices will drain money from chinese consumers pockets in the months ahead. fixed asset investment came in up eight point 1%, marginally below the estimate's of 8.3%. fixed asset investment, we will break it down to see much how much a private sector played in the confidence versus state
owned enterprises, which have picked up a fair bit of slack, so if that is starting to rebalance, that will be important as well. 6.7%,pline line number, clearly the quality of growth will be a top question for people digging into these numbers. thee had not been rebalancing many hoped to see, the pace of reforms, rebalancing, smokestack industries picking up a lot of growth as liquidity has been pumped into the system. supplythe m2 money times, and bloomberg intelligent saying that is not sustainable, creating financial risks. we have heard from policy makers that tackling those risks is a priority, more of a priority than hitting the gdp target, but clearly it is about actions as well as words, and when you have the communist party congress
stability in the forefront, how are chinese policymakers going to continue to keep growth around that mark when you have the property sector easing off and you have risks around trump and trade. growth predicting 6.5% this year, but a lot more questions still to do on this gdp number. >> thank you for that. we have the shanghai composite industrialhe community digesting what janet yellen had to say. let's get to singapore. david ingles is there for us. >> the shanghai composite opened much lower. not really seeing a lot of reaction since the numbers came out.
shanghai composite above 3100. hong kong under pressure. let's flip the board. not much reaction. is backwards looking, gdp numbers better than expected. up nikkei 225, this sums what the asian trading week has theme,out, no consistent tight ranges. a lot driven by the forex markets, the dollar fell and recovered. at the moment where the dollar is compared to this time last week, slightly stronger, gold and the yen measures of risk appetite are at the same level. it is really uneventful. squaring their positions ahead of these numbers and the inauguration.
i want to look at currencies very quickly. , pound-sterling, uro, flat for the most part, consolidation. , if there isets one thing consistent, it has been an outflow story this week. that may have a look at that very quickly since we are talking about these markets. most markets in asia have seen not a lot, not the dramatic amount that had been pulled out from these markets in the fall. that said, with the exception of india, just about every single , up until this morning. we have to see what today's data will show from the exchanges. have a look at majors right now. e currency, a loti
of what you are seeing has to do with what janet yellen has been saying. that said, it was not a surprise pretty let me talk about some of the numbers. they do support of course a increases,e of rate talking about changing demographics in the u.s. pushing out participation rates in the labor force. one comment here coming from a trader that bloomberg talked to, why are we seeing slight weakness in the u.s. dollar? essentially, markets are just paring their positions. it was less hawkish than what the markets were essentially expecting. >> right, thank you.
right, thank you. our guest is expecting china growth to slow to 6.5%. he is from j.p. morgan. we got 6.8% december, not unexpected, a slight uptick, but what was your take when you read the retail sales figure? not too much surprise comes 6.8 is what we were expecting. the good news is that growth momentum is still stable, and from the retail sales numbers -- guns, 10% plus, but let's look ahead. sustainable for an economy which has reached a certain point in terms of development. year,you look at this there are many issues that china continues to deal with, overcapacity production, the housing market, but some sectors will see momentum.
real estate market, given the tightening and a number of cities. auto sales surprisingly with a 15% growth in 2016. with some policy adjustments, we butexpecting a slowdown, the positive surprise came from financial services, a major factor for growth because of the adjustments in the stock market. >> it becomes important in the sense that people realize they can't make that much money on housing, so it is a whack a mole theory. you think that will be a read through when it comes to better performance by bond markets and equity markets? market, bighe stock adjustment in the second half of 2016. gdpad a negative effect on
growth, and that negative effect will disappear. >> you're predicting 6.5% growth , so where do you expect drag? >> housing and auto sales. >> what will be the dragon 2017? the real estate investment slowdown, auto sales slowdown. >> these are the reasons why? >> ok. let's talk about how the pboc looks at this. y take a more hawkish stance? there pboc operations, are some changes. they talk about prudence and neutral policy, but the neutral is more in the sense of the traditional policies like the policy rate, credit growth has been stable, but if you look at the macro financials, money markets, the interest rate has moving up, bond yields moving up
, and tightening measures in the last 3-4 months. these are on the condition that the growth outlook is stable in the near term. will today's data, they continue to tighten on this macro financials side. >> you typed, but there's no way they will relent when it comes to fiscal stimulus and investment and investment in infrastructure. >> fiscal policy was expansive last year. the fiscal deficit number increased significantly in 2016. that is one reason why infrastructure investment is so .trong this will continue in 2017, although we believe to a lesser extent. on the policy side, credit growth will be stable. >> right, but there are a couple of things. we have u.s.-china relations, how do they of all? -- they
evolve? we don't know yet. this capital outflow story, how do they stem this? >> this is probably the biggest near-term challenge for policy makers. we do observe capital control measures these days here at they have been used also on corporate. the policy impact is quite mixed. site, -- t below $3es will be trillion in the next few months, that puts aion is lot of pressure on the domestic policy operation, and also on other policy. where will the chinese currency be in six months? >> 7.2.
depreciation against the u.s. dollar. to thet, let's get latest first word news headlines and head over to sydney and join haidi lun. donald trump has promised to unify a america when he moves into the white house. at an inauguration concert in washington, the president-elect's said the u.s. voted for real change and vowed to carry out his campaign pledges. he told supporters that he would secure america's borders and build up the military and also, to be a president for all of the people. >> it is a movement that started, and a movement like we have never seen anywhere in the world, they say. there has never been a movement like this. and it is something very, very special. and we are going to unify our alltry, and our phrase, you
know it, half of you are wearing the hat, make america great again. the european central bank unchanged, preferring a wait and inflation.ach on the ecb says it will run asset purchases to the end of 2710, while trimming the monthly pace. the decision allows us stating from electionss in japan, france, and the netherlands. >> the risk remains tilted to relate tode and will dominate global factors. >> the u.k. prime minister has offered her strongest support yet for the city of london as brexit moves closer. theresa may says banks are a huge value to the british economy, some saying they may move staff abroad.
may has confirmed a full departure from the single market , bucking an industry that pays $18 billion in annual taxes. ini value financial services the city of london and want to ensure that we can keep a natural services in the city and i believe global britain will do just that. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 26 journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ahead, findingl out why ibm slumped in new york despite a beat on forecasts. we will break down the fourth quarter results later. plus, a busy time for janet yellen, two speeches and two days. we have been listening to what she has to say about the economy and the future pace of interest rate hikes. ♪
john: the peace we just showed ended with a question, which goes to a deeper issue. trump railed against china through the campaign. of his your assessment sincerity of his antipathy towards china? >> nobody really knows. it is a great talking point on the campaign trail. the chinese stealing all our that but if and the fact they are propping up the currency, it's hard to know where he is going with this. the state of relations between the u.s. and china right now? where itthe parts seems like the relationship is something positive that can be built on? and china are highly integrated economies. consumers rely on china for 90% of our smartphones, our
where there are tensions over currency and other trade practices, u.s. companies putting apple and others in there, they have highly integrated supply chains in china. john: michael, let me ask you this, to go back to my question line before, if trump labels china and currency manipulator, what happens? >> not much. the law calls for china, well, they give them a year to come into negotiations with the u.s., and what they are supposed to negotiate is left open, some sort of exchange rate. don't, after another year goes by, they can deny them financing from private overseas corporations for projects there. the problem is we have already cut off their access to that because of tiananmen square. they can do.ing
also, manipulation under the u.s. law, china does not meet the test. they cannot label them a currency manipulator based on the criteria that congress has set out. china stops loaning money to the nine states, investing in the united states, we would be in big trouble. is there any threat, if donald trump did something along these lines on trade, currency, that really made china angry and they said they would retaliate. start withdrawing money from united states in a way that would devastate our economy? >> absolutely. the u.s. is reliant on china, our biggest creditor, well japan has taken over as our biggest creditor recently, but the stakes could not be, you can't overestimate the stakes of a trade war with china. the effect be?d would there be downside for them
and therefore they might be reluctant to do it? >> absolutely. china relies on us for, we buy so many of their products, and u.s. companies invest so much and their economy. that is why both parties i think once they get down to the negotiating table will be have thisto really negotiation breakdown and see a full-scale trade war. has talks tough on china, but we don't know how much he means. how much sentiment is there and congress to be tough on china, where there would be an anit-china coalition. >> remember back in the 1990's when we had people bashing toy yoda on capitol hill. -- toyota on capitol hill. you have a lot of free-trade republicans who would not like this because the chinese are likely to retaliate somehow,
some sanctions that would hurt companies, the electronics boeing, they sell 5% of their jets to the chinese, ,griculture, hello, iowa sanctions on u.s. agricultural like imports, so there is a lot the chinese can do. they will probably not do a sale of u.s. treasury bonds, but we do need them to keep buying if trump is going to run up the deficit again. john: up next, the changing of onmate in the white house climate change could we will talk about donald trump and global warming after these words from our sponsors. ♪
as with so many other things, donald trump has not been clear about his view of global warming. he said he believes there was "some connectivity between human activity and climate change." and yet that's not what he said last month with fox news. >> where are you on the environment? >> i am still open-minded. i am somebody that gets it, and nobody really knows. it's not something that is so hard and fast. i do say this, i don't want that agreement to put us at a competitive disadvantage with other countries, and as you know there are different time limits on that agreement. if china or other countries signing agreements, giving them an advantage over us. mark: joining us now to talk
about climate change skepticism is joe ryan. welcome. i want to ask you about the obama administration. climate change was a huge priority of barack obama from 2007-2008, where is his legacy, record. what did he get done and what was not done in terms of his aspirations? >> wind and solar power grew astronomically under obama. for the last three years, wind thesolar have been biggest power additions to the grid. at the end of 2015, he scored a big victory when congress passed extensions of two key federal subsidies for wind and solar that may and able those technologies to continue to grow, even over the next couple of years as trump takes office. mark: what ever else he does on
coal or drilling, on those things, renewables, is there an indication of whether he is for or against it? >> he has made it clear that he wants to increase use of fossil feels and that he is skeptical about the economics of wind and solar power. hard to say what he would do once he takes office. the truth of the matter is that not a lot of this is powered by washington. the growth of renewables is ,argely powered by state law and there are dozens of states that have really ambitious clean energy targets, and even since obama was elected, ohio, michigan, and illinois have all expanded their clean energy targets. ,ohn: these are all things regulatory stuff, and the paris
accord. head of thein, new epa, strong signal that he is hostile to that environmental agenda of president obama? wanted to tear down everything president obama achieved, how could he do it and how successful could he be about wiping everything out? >> in short, he can work around the margins, that he can't tear the whole thing down. he can and probably will dismantle the clean power plant, obama's signature environmental and that requires electricity generators to use cleaner fuels, but the truth is even as the law is hung up in court, utility companies are already cutting carbon emissions. part of that is that state regulations, but the other pieces economics. gas sog has made natural
much cheaper than coal, and natural gas is cleaner than burning coal, so we have utility companies closing coal plants and replacing them with natural gas plants, and to a lesser extent with wind farms and solar farms, which are becoming competitive with coal. drivingally economics those, so while he can roll back environmental regulations that will make it easier on coal companies, and he can make it easier for utilities to continue to use coal plants, these generationsan their a decade in advance, and they party planned to. natural gas plants, wind farms, and salt forms, and they will not turn on a dime. mark: we are 15 years into a renaissance and the believe for nuclear, and yet we are still not building nuclear facilities.
any indication whether trump will push for the building of nuclear plans? >> he has spoken favorably about it. the economics aren't there for nuclear either. regulatoryng the holders has been an obstacle. technology has made so economical. mark: right. fracking america. trump andonald vladimir putin after a short break. ♪
election, discredit hillary clinton, and undermine confidence in the american democratic system." there have been bipartisan calls for hearings on russian hacking on capitol hill. meanwhile, president-elect trump takes a friendly posture towards russia and its leadership. asked for a reflection on his interview with president putin. >> putin started a fight with hillary. thing is whatnt was given to the public. clinton.ase, mrs. >> hillary immediately reacted to what putin said about her in
the interview. i think the interesting question is who did putin deep down want to win. i think he wanted trump to win from the perspective of just showing he had influence, able to do things, and that was his guy. on the international stage, part of him would have been happier with hillary clinton. putin generally wants to be the guy who will be the surprise, and as we expect to see, trump is someone who can be the surprise. you don't want to be outflanked as the most exciting man at the party. putin has always been less predictable than other people, but if the most proper man and the world is one of the least predictable, that makes it hard in some ways. weak hillary presidency, but now if you look at all the publicity and all the things that he has gained from what has happened, putin now
a big figure in american politics, and that matters a lot to him. it is outstanding if you look back at it. putin was a joke figure, now he is suddenly in the front rant. nation seemsrful to want a relationship with him. he is back in the ranks again, and that does make a difference. putinwas dismissive of and saying russia is a second rate power, and that is true. thatputin has shown is it's possible to do a lot in that second rate leak. trump has build him up and talked about him being a great leader. away from homen because suddenly putin is seen as a man to be reckoned with in
the middle east. quite likes. but also at home, the idea of putin as a czar, that is the way russians for good and bad reasons are drawn towards strong leaders. that makes them think that putin is smarter than trump. he will out with him at every stage of the game. >> as far as the hacking, i think it was russia, but we also get hacked by other countries and people. >> i think we will never know what damage putin did to the u.s. presidency. donald trump won by a regional margin and a lot of states. the issue of hacking will stay for some time because cyber security, these zones of problems between russia and will depend on whether russia continues to do
this stuff now that donald trump's president, because it is clear they have been doing stuff. china, thereue is seems to be this deal done. donald trump is being nice to russia and horrible to china, chances are surely that the chinese will be more aggressive in that field than before, and that could have consequences. another set of issues is the fact that donald trump is now in charge of american security, and if you get told by your people, look, this is what is happening, and in most of the instances it is relatively easy to indicate where some of these things have started. if they are consistently starting in russia, then he will have to deal with that. there is some credibility that this is one countries do. obviously america does it as well. --re is some unjust of
justifiable indictments from the chinese, they get fed up with the americans lecturing them when they know that one of the main users of this, although not in the same way china and russia, is america. it makes sense. it is an arms race. america is the most powerful country in the world. if you were president, you would want to have the best cyber security. that is a mix of offense and defense, and if you claim you are doing defense the whole time, the ability to go see what is happening inside the kremlin, beijing, that is worth a great deal. it is difficult to worry about what the real contacts are between trump and russia. inexpert, but donald trump's business interests and russia are minimal. to some extent, he exaggerated things like his context with putin when he was merely running a beauty pageant in russia.
he is not as far as anyone can see from the outside sort of deeply involved in russia from a business point of view, so that is a charge people have probably level too much. >> i don't know if i will get along with vladimir putin. there is a, but chance i won't. and if i want, do you believe hillary would be tougher on putin than me? >> at this precise moment, donald trump is a useful friend for vladimir putin to have. here is some cover. he has spent a long time telling people that he is not against the west et al., but he is not trying to establish the old soviet union or do anything like this, well, now he has a president of america that is at least prepared to go along with some of that. if you look at trump and putin, there has to be some sense where
of an't be as happy marriage as the honeymoon. you would expect this year national interests to emerge. at the moment, america's interests as redefined by donald inmp would seem to be contradiction. there are also problems on top of it. suited toent, it is point out that putin has been running rings around obama. now he will be president. looks as if russia is running that, that will begin to challenge the trump authority. if it looks as if russia is doing cyber warfare, that again is challenging donald trump's authority. if he pushes on trump say the baltics, at the moment, some people are around trump talk about the baltics like the suburbs of st. petersburg.
these are members of nato. you look at margaret thatcher, she was suddenly hit by the falklands, these strange islands many miles away, and it was only when she understood how crucial , but it was crucial to her political reputation. people don't like an american president who appears weak. if trump ins up in a position where it looks like putin is outsmarting him, that will not be in donald trump's interest. syria is where donald trump's vacuum to operate in a of american power, this is exhibit a of what he has managed to do. whether one agrees with it or not. president putin has cap bashar bashard in power -- kept al-assad in power for much longer than anybody expected.
it looks like he will stay in power. in effect trump is the american president and has said repeatedly that he does not want to get involved in these things, but whether he likes it or not, america is the fact oh involved in this. america is the world's policeman , so you either have to turn a blind eye to what's happening in syria -- they are horrible. the question is now how do you play trump. strangeget a very answer, but the basic question is how do you do it. is just astin surprised by his success in doing this, that he has managed to have some effect, we don't know what it was, somebody the american president talks about in the terms he talks about. he has become something that people talk about in the american political environment in a way they have not before, so putin is in a position which
i don't thing expected to be in, much in the same way you might argue donald trump is in a position he did not expect to be income so for putin, where do you take it from here? if you keep on doing the things you were doing around the world, you will have problems with america. if you stop doing things, you may have problems at home him and that is the balance for him. he has put himself back at the center of american politics, and no russian leader has done that for some time. john: trump in the middle east is next. we will be right back. ♪
and the ongoing conflict in israel. joining us now are two people who know the middle east well. welcome to you both. i want to start talking about israel, where there has been a lot of activity during the transition. you were very concerned about donald trump's instincts. based on what he has done since he has one, how are you feeling about his policies towards a country you care a lot about? far, so good in terms of a real-time issue, managing the u.s. response, trying to shape to the resolution that the u.s. abstained on at the united nations security council. part of why some of the whytries pulled back, another country, the u.k.
actually made a blistering criticism of what secretary kerry said about the middle east , this was all in response to trump and trying to maneuver around trump. i think people are focused. i think he's putting a good team around them. it will start getting complex, critically with this move of the embassy to jerusalem. so far, i have then cautiously optimistic. mark: at some point or at more office, every in president has said they will be the ones to get the deal. what is on the plus side? if donald trump says i will be the one who makes the deal, and he said that during the campaign, what are the conditions for the deal? >> he said it could be one of his greatest achievements if he's able to broker that.
the plus side, you have those in israel saying he is somebody they can work with, a partner, so there is that. but at the same time, in terms of who he has appointed, will he be able to believe in that policy or how will they respond. it could be just having somebody knew that both parties will be willing to sit down and talk to, so that could mean having a fresh face. obama did not get very far in that. syria, the hottest of hotspots and a bloodbath. donald trump said we should not be involved in the civil war. he seems to have moved in recent weeks. what do we expect to see given that ongoing crisis? from donaldncy trump the early days of the administration? from donaldeard trump and rex tillerson strong words that fighting isis is
there foremost priority in the middle east, so that tell you straight up what their policy in the middle east will be. isis,ked about bombing and because he has been advocating for warmer relations with russia, we see that could be the game changer in terms of who he will be aligning with and whether that console certain issues in syria. said he would support save stones in syria, which president obama has not supported, so that could create a change there as well. russia said the u.s. could get involved in the cease-fire agreement once trump is in power. ,e have also heard from turkey advocating for trump to get involved in terms of fighting isis, so i think we could see new alliances we have not seen before. i am struck by the reaction i have heard not just from
jerusalem, but capitals around the region. looking forward to this transition. particularly gulf countries, persian gulf countries, and cairo, egypt and the persian gulf countries and israel are looking for to the transition. why? obama has had this isis-first strategy that translated into a effectively turning a blind eye to what iran has been doing in the region, and thatproxy wars makes gulf countries nervous. they want to engage trump, but if they see the trump administration policy will be a obamauation of the policy, which is isis first and turn a blind eye to iran, iran is sort of our formal ally in beating isis, that will cool the enthusiasm you are currently hearing. john: there is literally no one who is more adamantly never
trump, and yet here you sit sounding, expressing equanimity about donald trump. sticking with this region, but what is going on here with you and, trump might be kind of good in this area? >> first of all, i say i am cautious and optimistic. i underline cautious. imo's impressed by some of his personnel picks. if you told me a year ago that jim mattis would be our defense secretary, betsy devos would be our next secretary of education, it is an impressive team he is putting together. and i'm familiar with some of the names for the sub-cabinet posts. be, trump'se will instincts on these issues in the middle east are good, at least what i've been hearing over the transition, they are where i am, and i like the people he is appointing.
to big challenge is how manage the permanent bureaucracy, so it is one thing to have a president whose instincts are in the right place , another thing to have a cabinet secretaries whose instincts are in the right place, but employees have a history of not always implementing with speed and efficiency the presidents priorities, and i have a feeling that if there is ever a priority for the permanent bureaucracy that will be slow to implement it will be this president. their armso get around how they will manage to bureaucracy, but the things they are saying, i am encouraged by. i am currently encouraged about russia, but not the middle east. mark: when you think trump's options are in reshaping the relationship with turkey? >> we have the movement that president are to one has been against. lynn is notgeneral fin is not
people are concerned there will be some cataclysmic event will be on watch to see what happens. i think you see in national security advisor flynn, someone who adds instability, but then others more stability. as vice president coming in well. it will be a wild part of this first 100 days. unless there is a provocation, i don't think it will be focused on domestic policy, but it will be wild. john: i think that is right. the world will be watching. always when you get a new president coming in, the world is watching and taking a measure. people have been taking a measure of donald trump throughout the campaign. i would say there are some exceptions, but i think there is a greater degree of global concern about trump than there has been an a long time, so it will matter a lot how he conducts himself.
put aside the question of a provocation. it will matter a lot. it is the kind of thing where it would do him so much good to be just a little bit more conventional in this area, pottery breaker on the domestic front is one thing, doing it on the international stage is another thing. world markets matter. will people like sean spicer, the press secretary, q medications director, will they have a role in this stuff? attempt tobe an shape trumps policy? i think he wants the ability to go out and say, look what ideas. in foreign policy, they are easier to get. a president can act more unilaterally, so watch for that to happen. john: the stakes are high.
♪ announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." charlie: paul ryan is here, of the reelected speaker house earlier this month, winning the support of all but one house republican. representing wisconsin's first district. the new york times described him as the steward of conservative policymaking. gop lawmakers have an ambitious agenda as they work toward a unified republican government. their focus is on reversing obama administration policies, starting with dismantling and replacing obamacare. other items including replacing regulations, and immigration