tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg January 23, 2017 11:00am-12:01pm EST
mark: we take you from washington to paris, with a couple of stories out of london, hong kong, and moscow in the next hour. here's what we are following on bloomberg and around the world. in u.s. politics, president donald ramotar design executive orders on trade deals -- donald is design executive orders on trade deals, filling a campaign promise to rewrite american trade policy in his first days in office. vonnie: u.k. prime minister theresa may unveiled the 10 pillar industrial strategy for the country as it readies to exit the european union. this ahead of the key supreme court ruling on brexit set for tomorrow. , stocks declining on both sides of the pond today
is the dollar falls against all major peers. investors are looking for clues from president trump on fiscal policy and tax cuts. mark: european equities are trading just under 30 minutes to the end of the monday session. mpme certainty about the tru regime that is causing a flight to quality. america first, that rhetoric is bringing forth images of protectionism, which is concerning. stocks are down, these currencies are rising against the dollar. it's a big drop in the dollar byay, sterling up i .9% -- .9%. commodities and cdf, gold is the ultimate haven, rising today. choosing the right stocks, here's a question for you, might be easier in the earnings season. this is the degree to which the euro stoxx 50 moves in lockste p.
this is the lowest in six years, the degree to which they are moving in lockstep is the lowest. shares arethat likely to take their cues from earnings results. rather than external factors. those predicting equity correlation will remain low. as a fascinating chart, which the bloomberg could show you. generalite news today, is a big gainer on the stoxx 600, shares up by 4.5%. it is italy's against insurer. rising on reports that intesa are interested in it. they are considering doing a isl with elian's a --llianz a possible partner. the transaction could avoid the , according toover
the newspaper, like other insurers, generali is struggling to boost confidence. biggest lighting company says it's profit margin will widen this year. that announce the return of as much as 300 million euros to share rose -- shareholders. sales declined, below analyst estimates. philips lighting announcing a target to return to the revenue growth next year, and it says it shares. 1.0 90 minutes into the trading day, abigail, how's it looking? abigail: looking at the kleins, the s&p 500, -- declines. the dow, s&p 500 and nasdaq slightly lower. now we are looking at noticeable the kleins, -- noticeable declines. on the uncertainty around the
trump administration that you were talking about. the interesting thing about intraday volatility, when it builds in this manner, typically it leads to closing volatility. we will have to see that one comes -- when that comes. the dow is down eight of the last 10 days. it's not down in a huge way, down .6%. as of last friday, the dow was down two weeks in a row, the first time it has done that since the middle of october. a little bit of a bearish hint to the market. this has put down 20,000 out of mind. g #btv 1537.t these the lows of the intraday ranges away from down 20,000. we are about 253 points away 20,000.n 20,000 -- dow there was a big move down in the
morning, it's not really showing here. but dow 20,000 is largely out of mind. this is confirmed when you take a look at a haven. you have the vet for the fear gave shooting up 5.5%. vix or the fear index shooting up 5.5%. on the year, 11 of the 16 trading days, that is another radar screen haven, suggesting some investors are looking for a safe haven. all of this is confirmed by the bloomberg -- the u.s. 10 year , waitingwn about .6% on the bloomberg dollar index down three days in a row. that uncertainty around trump the you have been talking about. vonnie: another .6% lower. abigail doolittle, thank you. courtney has more from the newsroom. courtney: president trump is
profiting tax cuts, regulation cuts, and what he calls a major board tax. he spoke of breakfast meeting with business leaders. trump: we're going to be cutting taxes massively. andboth the middle class for companies. that is massively. we are trying to get it down to anywhere from 15% to 20%. courtney: the president also said his administration thinks it can cut regulations by 75%. florida senator marco rubio says he will vote for president all trump -- president donald trump's-- donald nominee. he joins lindsey graham and john mccain and saying they will support tillerson, in spite of ongoing concerns about his past dealings with the russian government and president vladimir putin.
the supreme court rejected an aspeal from taxes it -- tex to keep its voter id law. the court ordered changes before the november election. the syrian civil war talks got off to a rocky start in pakistan. a rebel leader and syrian diplomat called the other side terrorists. the u.s. is attending as an observer. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe, this is bloomberg. mark: let's get back to the big story out of washington. president trump said to be signing executive orders on trade, withdrawing from the transpacific partnership, and reopening negotiations on nafta. it will also meet with theresa may this week. joining us is michael mckee.
and in london, simon kennedy. michael, any moment now, we are awaiting executive orders. what is likely to be signed? michael: we don't know. he does seem to be running late on these, according to the white house schedule. officiallyto withdraw from the transpacific partnership. he has been threatening to do that throughout the president of campaign. hillary clinton said she would do the same thing. it leaves the united states and the united states in a position of not having a formal relationship with 11 other countries going forward around the pacific rim. the question that follows from that is if china is pushing its own trade deal, do we see to china the future, or does trump propose some older trait -- some other trade deal? he is going to start renegotiation on the north rate -- north america free-trade agreement. the canadians,
prime minister justin trudeau's cabinet is meeting. the white house is sending jared kushner to speak to the about what they would like to see in the new negotiation. mark: simon, as donald trump removes the u.s. from the tpp and tries to reorganize nafta, theresa may heads to washington, trying to get some semblance of an agreement on a deal between the two countries. simon: she has to be careful, she can't negotiate trade deals while a member of the eu. she wants a sign from the trump administration that bilateral negotiation's are the way forward, unlike these -- that the u.k. could be at the front of the line from one from the u.s. after the departure from brexit. vonnie: michael mckee, we are getting word that democrats
enters have introduced a bill to withdraw from tpp. do we know anything about this bill, what it contains, and how it might be some way to get in there first?- in michael: is a matter, republicans -- it doesn't matter, republicans have the vote. congressional leadership is very much anti-trade and want to withdraw before they put out something new. we want to see what they come up with next to replace this. are veryns here interested in bilateral agreements, rather than multilateral agreements. vonnie: what would be the chances of a bilateral agreement with japan and a different one with china? michael: there's been talks for years about a bilateral degree with japan. mexico, ande with that's a problem for donald trump. there is a reason to try and do something. there's some talk that they
would try to use the tpp framework to make a bilateral agreement with the japanese. the japanese about signaled whether they would be open to that are not. china, because it has so many problems legally with intellectual property, with its closed current-account, there's no way they could create a deal like that until china opens up. that's going to be much further down the road. mark: what is the risk of theresa may taking this trip to washington? , hest spoke to vince cable said it is full of mine field and would have been better to take the angela merkel approach. simon: there's two schools of thought, one that you have them close. they have a special relationship, she can get funding from these talks, may be an indication on trade. to be soe don't have close to the eu with all these other opportunities. on the flipside, the risk is the europeans will say you were associating yourself with dollar trump,who -- with donald
who called for the block to break up. there are risks, before you look at the personality difference. mark: are they different in the way they are pitching themselves? , donaldmay, free trader trump, america first. we have to trade thirdly to the u.s.. donald trump wants to export more than imports. simon: he sees the brexit is part of the movement he has spoken of here it -- he has spoken of. he's going to claim legitimacy with may try to get u.s. support. she doesn't want to check that off. vonnie: we get is a premature decision in the u.k. tomorrow, eagerly awaited. her ownnister may has plan, even if the ruling goes
against her. simon: absolutely. a big decision tomorrow and i'm: 30 in london. the -- at 9:30 in london. parliament, not from mr., to invoke article 50. may will tryheresa to get a very short bill through the house of lords, one that is not subject to a great deal of amendments and doesn't slower process towards a brexit negotiation being triggered by the end of march. mark: simon kennedy leads are brexit coverage in london. a busy day for him tomorrow. and michael mckee in new york. i had on bloomberg, the chairman of terra firma capital projects. why he has said brexit will be bad for most people in the u.k. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: live from london, i mark barton, counting down to the european close. i just had the biggest news of the day. forget trump, forget brexit, forget the screen court. wars," film is called the last jedi. it comes after "the force awakens." vonnie: they can be finished. -- they can't be finished. there can't be a last jedi, they are eternal. mark: we know who that is. vonnie: thanks for that important news. time for the business flash the other business stories in the news. mcdonald's had fourth-quarter
earnings that beat estimates. they were helped by technology upgrades and new food. in-store sales were up 2.7% globally, almost twice as much as estimates. , they say fell breakfast is no longer fueling growth. halliburton reported thath-quarter profits beat. oil producers kicked off year-end recovery in north america, where the company generates most of its sales. customers in u.s. and canada increase the number of oil and gas drilling rigs 19% in the last three months of the year. of biggest manufacturer apple devices may build a u.s. billionfor more than $7 , that's a major investment for foxconn technology. it could create tens of thousand jobs -- of jobs. considering a joint movement with a japanese display company.
that is your bloomberg business flash for this hour. mark: the u.k. decision to leave the eu will lead to dramatic changes in the way the british economy operates, according to the chairman and chief investment officer of terra firma capital partners, who sat down with an exclusive interview with guy johnson, and was asked about theresa may's intentions in break the negotiations, especially in regards to trade. >> she is trying to effectively have her cake and eat it, and you can't. if you want to compete outside of europe, outside of that tariff barrier, you're going to have to be very competitive. >> singapore is all right. >> singapore doesn't have the same levels of social security and the same support for people. singapore -- the average n has 1.5 years. >> wages do what?
>> and standards go down until we reach a point where we can be competitive. >> how far away is that? >> probably about 30%. that's not going to happen quickly, it will happen gradually. >> we should talk about the fact that though britain didn't leave the eu, it wasn't able to become poorer. it was. >> you have control, but you suddenly entered into a world which will be very different from the world you have lived in. of ourhat was part exclusive interview with the chairman and chief investment officer of terra firma capital partners. up, we hear from pimco's head of public policy, what he's expecting from the tribe administration. -- trump administration. this is bloomberg. ♪
the european close with roughly nine minutes to the end of monday's session in europe. vonnie: still awaiting word of president trump signing executive orders on trade, and getting some headlines from ceos that met with trump on manufacturing today, including ceo.s he said the meeting was positive. earlier today on "daybreak we spoke with libby cantrell and asked how the president will organize his agenda over the next 100 days. going to behe is focused on the areas where he can put points on the board. those are the areas where he had some executive authority, and trade is one of those. with drive from the tpp, he can do that without congressional authority. we can do that -- we expect him to do that today is not this week. immigration, he can wrap up enforcement without congressional approval.
on some of these executive orders that was scale back obama regulations. the other things, obamacare, tax reform, infrastructure, those are all subject to congressional approval. the legislative process is ,ime-consuming, it is iterative and those things are going to take much longer. >> there's been a lot of talk about obama care of the affordable care act. they need congressional legislation to do that. the alternatives are repealed, and think about it down the road, or repeal and replace at the same time. >> i suspect the congressional republican leaders just wanted to advance with a repeal bill that would have been easy. there is president for -- there is precedent for it. when donald trump came out several weeks ago saying he is going to replace simultaneously, i can just imagine what congressional republicans were thinking. that has a chance of hijacking their congressional agenda.
the health care overhaul is incredibly difficult. obama, when he entered office, had an approval rating of 78%, large majorities in the senate and the house, and obamacare to 14 months to pass. even then, it passed on a partyline vote. these are difficult and i hate to be pouring water over the animal spirit, but legislating is difficult. friday or saturday, he had an executive order executive order declaring his administration would of repeal obamacare. no one knew what that would mean. what does that actually do for insurers and hospitals? >> it basically gives discretion to the secretary of health and human services, haven't even evaluateirmed yet, to where they can roll back some of the things that were done by executive order. the thing about obamacare is the ball that was passed by congress, but it also gave president obama a discretion to
fill in the details. has result, president trump the ability to roll some of those things back. to your point, the individual mandate is really the big question. does he touched that? if he does, that could have pretty significant consequences for the insurance market. mark: adjustment the weekend looking at crowd scientists and news conference at the white house. big consensus positions, i am planning this big inflation trade, i hear nothing about fiscal stimulus. all i hear is obamacare, inauguration crowd sizes, and things like that. monday morning, where's the fiscal stimulus plan? >> there was no mention of tax reform over the last 60 hours. he did emphasize infrastructure. i was surprised by how much he talked about infrastructure in his inaugural speech. that is somewhat a side effect of stephen bannon's influence. he has been very supportive of
the structure. but this is where the rubber meets the proverbial road. governing is harder than campaigning, these things, especially when they are subject to congressional approval, take a lot longer. they are doing obamacare, that who take an entire year. that would push back tax reform and infrastructure. they haven't even seen legislation about how those things would work, the timing could be pushed back further. cantrell, equities are heading towards the close on this monday afternoon here in london. of thenutes to the end session, stocks are lower for the third consecutive day. the close is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
worst run since november 2 and that was after the gauge. sterling made a big move today. that is the third day of gains. if the highest in almost a month after the first weekly gain in three. last week, it rose. tuesday was the biggest one-day moves since 1993 after the brings it speech. speech.t the supreme court's ruling of she can trigger article 50 before the consent of parliament. that happens tomorrow. the economy grew .5%. on friday, she meets resident donald trump. will she be able to strike some sort of agreement on trade? you're not allowed to do anything official until the u.k. leaves the eu. provesman 10 year yield
the flight to quality havens is very much the theme on concern about donald trump's rhetoric. the america first rhetoric give some indication that it will be protectionist, people are worried about that. on friday, we reach the highest in a years. look move since july last year. how things change. it's finishing up with the ultimate safe haven. yeartwo trading days this has gold actually fallen. it's on track for its fifth weekly gain, the best run it since july 8 holding in gold etf's are expanding .9 metric tons on friday. that's the best run of gains since november 5, just before the trumpg day on
win. holdings contracted after trumps win. let's not forget that gold in the last quarter fell 12%, the worst performance in over three years. bonnie: the dollar index is down half one percent. this is long time since we've seen that did you mentioned another safe haven asset. it's up half a percent. this is down for other reasons. we see rig counts go up. we know russia is still talking about cutting. those things are waiting on the price of oil today. the 10 year yield, we saw a rally overnight. that is continuing today. it's back in action with the yield. this as the market seems to be waiting for the rhetoric to turn to something more plausible,
something they can dig their hands into. a pivot to actual policy if you gmm where did look at you have seen a lot of weakness in the lira and the korean currency. i pulled up the wrong one. you can see the s&p 500 is down .4%. it is dragged down by qualcomm. they are facing a lawsuit i apple. we are seeing more people downgraded qualcomm. the other stocks are down about .3%. we have yields. this is down about .6%. courtney donohoe has more. courtney: president trump is taking aim to trade deal he said would hurt american workers. he will plan executive order pulling the u.s. out of the transpacific partnership trade deal. officialccording to an
firmly with the plan. the president will sign an order to renegotiate the north american free trade agreement with mexico and canada. president trump sold -- told business leaders he plans a massive tax cut. he said his administration thinks it can/regulations by 75% and he will impose a major border tax. he meets later today with labor leaders and workers. george h.w. bush is leaving the intensive care unit at a cost -- hospital in houston. he is been suffering from act aerial the money. his wife has been discharged from the hospital. she was being treated for bronchitis. outlined heras strategy for industrials today. she will deal with the u.k. business sector while preparing the economy to leave the european union. the government will back areas where it inks the u.k. can excel, including artificial intelligence and networking.
global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. i'm courtney donohoe. mark: thanks very much. it's get to markets. have a big showdown looming in the markets. hedge funds are upping their bats like never before. at the same time, institutional buys did the opposite. what can we make of this disparity? let's ring in a bloomberg reporter who covers the treasuries and global bonds. thanks for joining us. fast money versus real money. who is going to win? brian: the two of them have an increasing their stakes in very different directions. i talked to jpmorgan. their perspective is real money is going to end up winning out there and there is a lot more at stake and money on that side of the equation between funds and insurance companies.
they're really finding some value. mark: are fast money investors comparing investors when they all crowded together? brian: that's with the research has indicated. eventuallye limit, it might be too late and the deal start to go down. they have to cover their positions and unwind, which leads to a cascading effect that leaves deals lower when the bets seem to indicate they expected to go higher. vonnie: could they both be right? fast money as fast for a reason, and wants to get in and get out. money istutional longer-term and looking for much larger and more stable returns, longer-term. brian: this is a really interesting topic, the first day of the trump administration when you are taking clues about order taxes and tax rates and regulation. it's this question about policy
and how much of it there will be. will there be enough to really lift off growth above 3% and lead to long-term deals, moving higher from here. has a lot of that already been priced into the market? about year has backed up 100 basis points from its low last year. the question is going to be where do we go from here? we have been in a tight range. no one has linked yet. we will see what happens. vonnie: the chart really is fascinating. it's a massive disparity between the two. what part of the curve we talking about? brian: the real focus is the five-year. it tends to be the one that is very sensitive to fed expectations for the long-term. her janet yellen say potentially we will raise rates a few times and year through 2019. that would affect the five-year quite a bit, even more than the two-year. it's these five-year parts of
thaturve whether it's real these players are focusing on. mark: there is no guarantee when it comes back to growth. the growth measures that donald trump will implement will leave it to fast growth, fast growth past -- fast. that underscores the uncertainty around the economy going forward. you have these hopes that fiscal policy will stimulate the growth while you have these topics of people have been harping on for last year when they hit record lows about them a graphics, about high debt levels across the world, and how there are real long-term elements that are going to suppress bond yields for decades to come. mark: what a great story. i think it's still up there. it is right up there at the top.
turned down. mark: they are trying to discern the impact of donald trump's policies. the index fell the lowest in a month. is pledging to make america independent from opec. joining us is the managing editor of energy and commodities. richard jones is a rate strategist. let's start with you. metals arising. donaldre hopes that trump will rebuild america's infrastructure. that is still playing out. tina: we've seen the industrial metals rally today. way kind of wonders which trump is going to take the world economy. it's been an interesting play. in terms of how gold has been performing it, you would expect rising interest rate market you would not see much clamoring for
gold. we see a lot of uncertainty. one of the most interesting notes that has come out in the is goldman sachs describing investors as uncertain and confused. i think you see that in the commodity markets as well. mark: we are seeing it in the dollar. investors are choosing to look the glass half-full rather than half-empty. this is when it comes to the dollar. richard: what we have seen in the aftermath is a rally in the dollar. now we are starting to see a little bit of sideways trading at a little bit of that positioning being unwound. it does speak to what we were talking in the previous set, the long-term versus the short-term time horizons for investors. we have seen and unwind of that dollar on short treasury trades. vonnie: can i come back to you,
tenet? aluminumlking about prices, they are rising even though china is putting out plenty. what is the thinking behind the price of aluminum prices? tina: there could he and inflow of infrastructure spending. there is concern about section is him. we saw a recently court case go into the wto asking for more protection to get dumping by china. that follows a lot of the court cases that have not on. you see a much more protectionist standpoint. underst recent thing came the obama administration but nobody expects that to be curtailed by the new administration. vonnie: i want to play a sound bite that we got from iraq's oil minister take a listen. it will be in 100% compliance
with the opec agreement. month, beforethis the end of this month really, we are going to complete our share of 210,000 barrels a day. that is a reduction in us as a whole. vonnie: can i get your thoughts? obviously, that is the reason. here we see that iraq is not compliant yet. it will be. tina: they came out of the meeting all smiles. everyone was talking about how great it was. is they willt now reach full compliance by next month. russia has already reached full compliance. more interestingly, the russian energy minister is talking about the trust between non-outback and opec nations. positivity inat terms of the compliance of the
cuts, oil prices are still falling because they fear what's coming on in the americas. there is a rig count increase, the largest in three years. how much longer will it be before the market is oversupplied again. mark: donald trump does a weaker dollar. hewhat extent is he -- can accomplish it? if he goes into his protectionist stance, will the dollar behave? is that too simple? richard: i think it's very difficult if the president wants dollar givinge -- the background for him to achieve it. we've always had a strong dollar policy as the stated goal of the administrations of the past. if that change in rhetoric occurs, you have that countervailing against growth in the economy. it comes down to what the
details of the program will be and what it means for the economy. in the initial time after the election, there was optimism about that. i think the details will be the most important thing for the u.s. economy and the dollar. mark: where are my notes. i think was over a month at the dollar went back to the brexit speech. how are investors positioned ahead of the supreme court ruling tomorrow, if it goes against may, how does the pound react? richard: it's a little less crowded than it was. overwhelmingly, you still have investors. vonnie: we have an executive action signed. this was signed by donald trump to withdraw from tpp. anotherthat is down
worker. bring back michael who is our international policy correspondent. mean?oes this we are no longer heart of the process area that had not been ratified. michael: it wasn't going to be. it's low hanging fruit. we have not heard of he is nafta, which would be somewhat meaningful. withdrawing from tpp to lower nontariff barriers, that wasn't going to get approved in the u.s.. matter alloesn't that much. is donald trump going to do something else? will he ring those countries a fairer or freer or both trading arrangement with the states the federal hiring president signs that. government is always the enemy to the incoming president. we will see how long that last. donald trump has positions he needs to fill. this is one that goes back and forth between the democrats and republicans. you're not led to use federal servicesor abortion overseas. it's called the mexico city doctrine. when the democrats are in power, it gets approved. nothing is really unexpected so far today. mark: is china rubbing its hands in glee? this seed control in trade and asia to china? michael: it gives them a big leg up. there are other trade groups they are trying to get a treaty together. china has taken the lead on one of those. china doesn't have a convertible currency, which makes it more difficult to sign a free trade agreement. it doesn't mean it gives them an automatic win. it does give them a leg up in negotiating. that is something u.s. officials had been concurred -- concerned about. they had been able to use the tpp against china. you are not in the club. if you will agree to some of our demands, they will let you in. i don't want to overstate it. it does look like markets are lower. they are not treating this is market friendly at the moment. michael: it's not market friendly until we see what replaces it. towill make it harder for us export goods overseas. we have companies on both sides of that equation. they want to see what happens going forward. none of these executive orders are unexpected and none of them have a far-reaching affect on the short run. the lack of tpp might weigh on
the u.s. economy. vonnie: we have a bill from the democrats. it's something trump and the democrats can ally on slightly. what is the next part of the process? michael: we are going to want to hear what they want to do about trade next. the problem we have had is he is in opposition to individual trade agreements. he has talked about individual tariffs on companies that move out of the country. there is no overarching theory of trade other than he once their agreements. what does that mean? who will he invite into the club? that's what people will want to see. mark: what do you think theresa may is thinking? you know that trump likes bilateral deals. agreement?oose i know it can't be official. michael: it probably ups the odds. the two of them will come out the asus andree on principles. it will allow us to achieve something in short order. one of the more interesting aspects that has been talked about is the possibility of changing these requirements so it's easier for people to move to the u.k. and vice versa. mark, you can come over here and sit with vonnie quinn. we can bring more people into work or send our people to work in the u.k. and both sides win on the job front. moree: you will hear throughout the day. our thanks to michael mckee. take a look at where the european markets and did. it was all about concerns about
donald trump's america first rhetoric, which caused a flight to havens like gold and government bonds in europe. gold is up today and stocks are down for the third consecutive week after last week. i will leave you what's happening in currencies. it's a date that the dollar will want to forget. all the major currencies are rising against the dollar today. the euro is lower against the pound. the pound is up .9%. the fifth bloomberg targets continue. this is bloomberg. ♪
from bloomberg's world headquarters in your, here are the top stories. president donald trump ends a decades old tilt toward free trade by signing an executive order to withdraw from the transpacific partnership. cromwell at sullivan & joins us on what a trump administration meets for mergers and acquisitions in our weekly deals report. there is a big showdown looming in the treasury market. first, president donald trump inside an executive action to withdraw from the transpacific bishop. -- partnership. vonnie: they were running behind schedule. president trump sign that executive action. he said he will renegotiate the free trade agreement as well. as part of the campaign