tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg January 24, 2017 4:00am-7:01am EST
francine: supreme decisions. brexit gets its day in court with a ruling on triggers. this will delay theresa may's timetable for leaving the e.u. currency concerns. the u.s. treasury secretary nominee, steven mnuchin, says the dollar is very strong. does the buck stop here? and trump don'ts the tpp -- dumps the tpp. and shares in a telecom giant plunge. this is "bloomberg
surveillance." i am francine lacqua in london. we start with data. it is eurozone pmi figures. they are just below expectations. when you look at the euro area in january, services pmi fell to 53 .6. economists were forecasting 53.8. when you look at the manufacturing pmi, it rises to 55.1. pointrecast was that 54 eight. anything above 50 indicates an expansion. services a little bit below manufacturingbut better than expectations. let's get straight to the markets to see whether there is a bit of dollar-euro movement. the is my picture for markets. watch out, as always, for the dollar. it has been erasing some of the earlier losses. emerging stocks are gaining. this is the picture for the european stocks, putting much flat. 1.2502.d currently
a lot of weakness on the turkish lira. the msci world index overall a touch up. we will have plenty more from the markets. first, let's get to the first word news. here is nejra cehic. nejra: donald trump has pulled the u.s. from the transpacific partnership, by executive order. he left the north american free trade agreement with canada and mexico intact for now, but action is in the works. the president also found a "very major border tax for companies that move jobs outside the u.s.," and that he would cut regulations by 75%. treasury secretary nominee steve nation says an excessively strong dollar could have a negative short-term effect on the economy. the comments were oained by bloomberg news from answers he gave two u.s. senators. is awaitingnuchin confirmation by the senate. relations foreign
committee has approved rex tillerson's nomination as secretary of state, clearing the way for the full senate to vote on the cabinet choice. they confirmed mike pompeo of kansas as cia director yesterday. have plunged after the company more than tripled a write-down of its italian unit to 530 million pounds. that is after a profound more faulty accounting and "inappropriate behavior" than the company first identified. the ceo said the firm is deeply disappointed with the improper practices it down. -- if found. samsung profit more than doubled in the last three months of 2016, on robust semiconductor sales and a recovery in its note 7business after the debacle. the company is to buy back 8 billion dollars worth of shares, which will be canceled. by 2600ews powered journalists in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much.
we now go to anna. excited or confused about the decision about the supreme court that is due in 24 -- 25 minutes. the uk's supreme court will rule whether the brexit process can be triggered without parliamentary approval. minister plans to launch article 50 by the end of march. anna edwards is at the supreme court in central london. anna, great work throughout the day. if the government loses, what exactly happens? anna: right, well, i asked that question. over my shoulder, you might be able to see gina miller at the supreme court. she is one of the respondents in this case, bringing the original case. she is an asset manager in the u.k., along with a hairdresser, being the case against the governor that went to the high court in november. it is the high court ruling that the government is appealing today. there is wide expectation.
we spoke to edit agricole on this matter. they say the expectation for the market at the moment is that the government does lose. if the government does lose, where we end up is, the government has to draft some kind of brief legislation that goes to parliament, in some form, perhaps being explained by the justices of the supreme court. members of the parliament, members of the house of lords, get to make amendments to the bill. the significance of this is basically, how much does this slow down, even if it does not entirely disrupt, the grexit process? francine: if we think of it methodically, there are more core options. the first one, the government wins. the second one, the government loses. we need to talk about devolution and whether they will have a reference to the european court of justice. anna: absolutely. there are plenty of other actors, if you like, that could find themselves involved here.
what exactly is the supreme court going to stipulate, exactly how the houses of parliament are going to be involved? and to what extent are they going to stipulate how the administration has to be involved? at the time this was heard at the high court, there was limited involvement from the scottish government, the welsh assembly, and the northern irish assembly. the northern irish assembly has been dissolved, pending elections in march. doing the supreme court process, we have had representations made by those various devolved administrations. they want some kind of say in how this process is conducted. as tothe judges go so far give those devolved administrations some kind of veto? possibly not. that might be extreme. constitutionally, extremely significant for the justices to do. they typically like to keep a politically low-profile. but there could be some mention of what kind of involvement edinburgh, cardiff, and the belfast of ministrations have to have here. edwards at the
supreme court in london for us throughout the day. we will bring you the supreme court decision as it happens, right here on bloomberg. you can also follow the action on the bloomberg. if you are a terminal user, you can follow what the judges say, and a blog and market reaction in real-time. let's get straight to the chief european economist at merrill lynch. how do you view the supreme court decision? it seems to me it could impact on the timeline of when article 50 is triggered, but not much else. also what weis think. it seems that the market likes everything that slows down the process. but actually, i am not sure it itin the best interest that is slow down. we know the direction of travel. what matters at this stage is to get some kind of clarity on the final day. so actually a slower clarification of exit -- brexit is not great news.
on the decision itself, the focus will be on any involvement of the devolved authorities. if it is about parliament in westminster, we already know theresa may has a majority. so it is about any kind of snag with edinburgh, belfast, cardiff , that could create additional tension in the u.k. francine: talk me through this. the slowethe- process, the better. is it because they believe -- is there some kind economic impact that is negative? i do not know if theresa may softens her tone or there is more negotiating tactic. you point out that if you are a ceo, you make the decision, and you have to make it now, no matter how long the process takes. gilles: correct. the market has disbelief that the more complicated it is, the higher the pressure on theresa may to compromise, to come up with a soft version of brexit. we know she has opted for a
fairly hard version of brexit anyway. we also know that even if some labor mps are going to dissent, esther corbyn called on the labor party to support triggering article 50. there will be calls in the process. but from the point of view of the u.k., whatn you want to know is, what is going to be the transition period? how long is it going to take? the fundamental view -- snacks -- -- snacks are not good snags are not good. francine: dollar euro, are we going to see more volatility on this chart? there are head winds for euro. we did not touch parity. we were close to parity around 2007. are we going back there? gilles: actually, i would forecast that we should be fairly stable on sterling-euro. one thing that is going to create [indiscernible] anyway is, the fact that where we want things to be, which is
clarification on the transition period, it has to come in the last part of the negotiation with the e.u. that is something i believe is a bit ignored. you start discussing the bill. you stop discussing tons of very arcane issues. and then you get to the nitty-gritty. finally, you discuss transition period. we may end up in 2017 in none the wiser as to the length of the transition period. in between, things are likely to move depending on what the bank of england finally does, and the options that are open. if anything,ime, the ecb is probably on its way out, in terms of extrapolation. that is going to be a driver. thecine: how much -- transition period, how much does itmpacgdp? if you look at your forecast, it is difficult to have any visibility. what can we say for certain? that there will be job losses,
-- currency and in volatility and inflation have gone up? gilles: in any case, given where we are now, inflation is going to be very strong in 2017. it is probably too late to do anything about it. on the transition period itself, the longer the transition period is, probably the lower the impact on growth. you start preparing. it is a cliff. you need to move people around. and you have not had time to prepare for this. francine: thank you so much for now. gilles moec stays with us. if you are a bloomberg customer, you can also watch the show using tv go. there are three or four seconds delay. you can also follow all of us and all our chart functions. messages directly. .esk message us directly
send producer questions, or fetus some of your best or worst charts. let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. nejra: easyjet quarterly sales beat estimates and revenue per seat fell less than expected, amid resilient demand in the run-up to christmas. pretax profits fell 28% last year, as a weak pound inflated foreign-currency expenses, and terrorist attacks across europe subdued demand. the airline plans to lift capacity as much as 9% this fiscal year. yahoo! said the sale of its main operation to verizon has been delayed until next order to meet closing conditions after disclosure of massive taxed user accounts. fourth-quarter revenues be analyst estimates, and user activity showed minimal decline after last month's announcement of a second major security breach. the longtime formula one boss is stepping aside. the 86-year-old is being
a former 21sto by century fox executive. chairmane will become emeritus. the change comes liberty media completes its takeover of f1, which it bought la year for $4.4 billion. rio tinto agreed to sell its thermal poll assets in australia's valley for up to $2.45 billion to an australian company. to sell subsidiary industries includes an initial $1.95 billion cash and $509 in deferred payments. betweenis a partnership a china commodity trader and loving group. barack obama's senior director for server security will help guide data at a wall street firm. title co.ing with the chief information security officer. he was most recently the
department of homeland security assistant secretary for server security and communication. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine: president donald trump has abruptly ended the decades-old u.s. commitment to free trade by withdrawing from transpacific partnership. the signing of the executive order to dump the 12 country accord comes in the wake of his promise at the weekend to begin talks to renegotiate the 23-year-old nafta trade agreement. let's get more with gilles moec from bank of america merrill lynch. he said he would do it. he did it on the second day in office, third in office. what does this tell us about his commitment to trade? do we believe all the noise and tweets that we hear, that this is going to be a more protectionist, america first policy? gilles: we are not going to get m all-out trade war, slipping tariffs. that is the last resort for the
demonstration. he wants to force a proper negotiation. the noise is quite obvious. is interesting in the tpp is that some of the shortcomings of nafta, some of the issues the u.s. has had with nafta for years, were to be dealt with through the tpp. actually, the country's involved in the after are also involved in the tpp negotiation. you now have to start from scratch with canada and mexico. that, in itself, is a big deal, the idea it is going to be renegotiated. i guess that where the market's focus is on the relationship with china, and on the question of the currency manipulation. if that happens, you get into escalation with china. ,gain, within that flattening terrorists is -- tariffs is the last recourse. francine: it is not necessarily that the u.s. will get a better
trade deal. it takes years, even if you look at the u.s. and the u.k. theresa may, even if they want to do something quick, it will take six years. we do not know the other starting position. you can say, i want america first, but if you are china, you are going to defend your own interests. gilles: in the meantime, what you get is noise and negative generation. i guess the focus for us in the next few weeks and months is to see how much of this messaging of trade is going to be offset by positive news of fiscal stimulus in the u.s. that is the balance which is a bit iffy. trump was always going to be about those two things. yes, negative on global trade. at the same time, positive when u.s. demand, which would have a positive signaling effect on the world. so far, we have heard a lot about negative noises on trade, not much about the fiscal stimulus. i think this is the next step. but the market needs to hear fairly quickly now is, when can we count on that?
quantum we can expect from the fiscal stimulus -- that is going to be a real focus. francine: what are the markets focusing on? there was a huge -- it was a rotation that, to be fair, started a little bit before the election. but it went up, and now it is coming. what are the concerns about? gilles: there were always two things. there are the tax cut concerns and the infrastructure spending. it has huge distributional consequences on which company would actually benefit from that. , now, in the be nking -- thi infrastrucay tture me much longer than we had in mind. let's focus on tax cuts. but the tax cuts issue is being ,omplicated by the border tax on which we do not actually have any details. veryhe border tax has complicated distributional effects not just on the sector level, the company by company.
everybody is waiting on this and wants to see the package. what is actually going to be on the level, before being able to make decisions? it is not just the action, but how you allocate within the index. francine: what do you worry about the most in terms of delivery of the promises? first of all, does america first mean the rest of the world will suffer? and do you worry about funding? gilles: i think my real concern is that you have this -- this built of expectation in the market that -- animal spirits not just in the u.s., but globally, are going to be related by this new, huge fiscal stimulus. if that does not come, or if it takes time, the disappointment could be quite significant. i do not know if it is going to come or not. what i'm and slowly certain of is that it is going to be the point of focus for the next few weeks. francine: think you so much. stays with us and
netherlands head to the polls this year. eurozone pmi's show a modest pickup in manufacturing, but a slight miss for services. with me is the chief european economist at bank of america merrill lynch. i have a million questions. can the eurozone survive with brexit? also, are you really worried about france electing marine le pen and being out of the eurozone? the impacts of brexit for the eurozone, i think, are quite mild. it may sound strange, but there was no loss in june when brexit happened. we are left with the same issues we had a few years ago, for the ecb created this nice window of peace and quiet. we do not know about the institutional setup for the eurozone, how to progress to a fiscal union. a banking union is not fully complete. we have a few countries with very, very slow potential growth. it is, and the reasons not a systemic risk at this stage -- if the eurozone, in the
-- on its own, due to francine: external problems. what about -- francine: what about france, the problems? is it difficult to look at how the votes will be allocated? right now, everything is quite fluid. gilles: the market, for now, is ,nsisting about the terror risk marine le pen, and so forth. but there is upside as well. inis probably the first time a long couple of time that there is no obvious candidate in the .ainstream everyone is, to a large extent, or business friendly than the illustrations we have had so far. it is true for the french right and for micron. there is also the possibility that we end up for this period with some reforms.
know, if i can allow myself to be french for 10 seconds, there was a very good reading on the pmi index this morning in france. it seems there is finally some positivity, some hope. there is a frexit risk. at the same time, things have never been so clear, anyway. the national front is the party that wants to bring back the retirement age to 60. it does not want to touch the 35 hour quick. all the others in the mainstream, again, are pushing .way it is a very stark choice for the french population. it has never been that clear. but the polls would tell you the
mainstream is ahead. francine: in 10 seconds, do you worry about inflation? germany higher, for example. and what it means for draghi. gilles: what folks are going to you the mainstream is ahead. francine:make for inflation -- t worried about core inflation. the pmi this morning, the pressure was not that high. thank you so much for now. the chief european economist at bank of america merrill lynch stays with us. we will be talking about brexit a little more. the u.k. supreme court brexit ruling in five minutes from now. we will bring you that decision of the ruling as it happens. go can also follow on t live , if you have bloomberg terminal. it is a little bit like a blog. you will be updated on the markets. these are live pictures from inside the courthouse here in london. ♪
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the u.s. from the transpacific partnership by executive order. he left the north american free trade agreement in tact for now, but according to an aide, that is in the works. planning for a very major border tax for companies who move outside of the u.s. anven mnuchin says excessively strong dollar could have a negative short-term effect on the economy. he is awaiting confirmation by the senate, who has yet to schedule a vote. the senate foreign relations committee has approved rex tillerson's nomination as secretary of state, clearing the way for the senate to confirm one of the most critical cabinet choices. #pompeo --on deal, more than triple the writedown
edits italian unit of 130 million pounds after a probe found more full accounting and inappropriate behavior than the company first identified. the ceo says the firm is deeply disappointed with the improper practices it found. samsung's profit more than doubled in the last three months of 2017 on robust semiconductor sales and a recovery in its mobile business. the company is to buy back a billion dollars worth of its own shares which will be canceled. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am nejra cehic. this is bloomberg. francine: let's go live to the supreme court in london where the article 50 ruling is set to be delivered any moment. these are live pictures. you are watching live pictures and that decision is eminent. we understand it will be the president of the supreme court
who will deliver the ruling. it will come two minutes or so into the six minute summary of the decision. there are various ways in which this could go. 11 judges could actually rule in theresa may's favor, agreeing she does not need parliament's backing. things,e two different because a motion could be something that would be quite quick. if you look at debate in the past on motions, comments usually last half a day. if it is a bill, the process is much more complex. there are a series of stages, chamber votes at each stage, and lots of opportunities for dissent. let's get straight to in front of the supreme court where anna edwards is live. she has been talking to people all morning. in terms of what difference this decision could take, is it just a question of timeline of whether it is a more painful process or not? anna: that is really the crucial
factor here. even if the judges to decide this makes to go to parliament and the government loses their appeal, there is still a white expectation that parliament would not want to be -- wide expectation that parliament would not want to be seen as standing in the way of the british people, but her halves change the way brexit happens, soften the way it happens or change the timing. the ambitious target is to trigger article 50 by the end of march, perhaps that would be brought into the question that into question. -- into question. the justice is expected to start speaking any moment. what he specifies about exactly as you say, how they have to go to parliament, is it going to be a motion or a full act of parliament, and which it will have to go through five stages of voting in the commons, five stages in the lords, and plenty
of opportunities to attach amendments. they could take us on all kinds of tangents, require extensive extend things. we are going to be looking for clues as to how hard or soft the brexit will be. labort be in the case of around workers rights, access to the single market? will it be in the case of the smp, independents around for scotland,veto or a would-be smp because they have refused to sign any kind of triggering an article 50. we will understand from justice newberger in five minutes, that is how long he is slated to speak for. and howget some clues parliament will go from here. francine: we are expecting the
president of the supreme court delivering the ruling. that should be around two minute in the six minute summary. there were lots of questions. it is not only about whether she needs to ask parliament for approval, what does it mean also for the european court of justice? community, economic neither european union, e.u. this was achieved by government ministers signing a treaty, and parliament enacting the european community's act of 1972. over the next 40 years, developments in the e.u. resulted from further treaties, many of which were adopted in subsequent acts of parliament, and some of those curved the exercise of the powers -- curbed the exercise of power of u.n. ministers in a you actions. one of those acts was in 2008
and in -- approved the article 50 and e.u. treaties. in broad terms, article 50 provides that a country wishing to leave the e.u. must give a notice in accordance with its own constitutional requirements, and that the e.u. treaties shall cease to apply to the country within two years. 2016, a u.k. wide referendum produced a majority in favor of leaving the e.u., and the government then announced its intention to trickle article 50 -- trigger article 50. the issue in these proceedings have nothing to do with whether the u.k. should exit from the e.u., or the terms or timetable for that exit. the main issue is whether the government can trigger article 50 without the prior authority of an act of parliament.
the other issues concerning obligations of the u.k. government under the devolution legislation before triggering article 50, and in particular, whether in scotland, wales, and northern ireland be consulted. so far as the main issue is concerned, as a general rule the government has a prerogative power to withdraw from international treaties as it sees fit. however, the government cannot exercise that power if it would thereby change u.k. laws, unless it is authorized to do so by parliament. the claimant's argue as a result of leaving the e.u., u.k. law will change and legal rights enjoyed by u.k. residents will be lost. say, thely, they government cannot trigger article 50 unless authorized by
parliament. in reply, the government argues that the 1972 act does not exclude the power for ministers to withdraw from e.u. treaties, the 1972section two of act actually caters for the exercise of such a power. of 8-3, themajority supreme court rules that the government cannot trigger article 50 without an act of parliament authorizing it to do so. briefly, the reasons given in a judgment written by all eight justices in the majority are as follows. section two of the 1972 act provides that whenever e.u. institutions make new laws, those new laws become part of u.k. law. the 1972 act therefore makes e.u. law an independent source
of u.k. law until parliament decides otherwise. therefore, when the u.k. withdraws from the e.u. treaties, a source of u.k. law will be cut off. further, certain rights enjoyed by u.k. citizens will be changed. therefore, the government cannot trigger article 50 without parliament authorizing that course. we reject the government's argument that section two caters for the possibility of the government withdrawing from e.u. treaties. there is a vital difference between changes in u.k. law resulting from changes in the e.u. law, and those are authorized by section two, and changes in u.k. law with tilting -- resulting from withdrawal from the e.u. treaties. with drawl affects a fundamental change by cutting off the source of e.u. law as well as changing legal rights.
the u.k.'s constitutional arrangements require such changes to be clearly authorized by parliament. the 1972 act does not do that. indeed, it has the opposite effect. the referendum is of great political significance, but the act of parliament which established it did not say what should happen as a result. so any change in the law to give effect to the referendum must be made in the only way permitted by the u.k. constitution, namely by an act of parliament. to proceed otherwise would be a breach of settled constitutional principles stretching back many centuries. the dissenting justices consider the government can trigger article 50 without an authorizing act of parliament. their view is that the 1972 act, taken with the 2008 act, renders
the domestic effect of e.u. law conditional on the e.u. treaties applying to the u.k. hasheir view, parliament not imposed any limitation on the government's brother took power to withdraw from the treaties -- relative power to withdraw from the treaties, and if article 50 is triggered it will cease to have effect on u.k. law according to the 1972 and 2008 acts. the court unanimously rules that u.k. ministers are not legally compelled to consult the devolved legislatures before triggering article 50. the devolution statutes were enacted on the assumption that u.k. would be a member of the e.u., but they do not require it. relations with the e.u. are a matter for the u.k. government. plays anconvention important part in the operation thehe u.k. constitution, as
policing of its scope and operation is not a matter for the court. we thank all those who have played a part in helping us determine these important legal questions. andes of the full judgment of a summary version are now available on the supreme court website. the court is now adjourned. francine: it could not be any clearer, the supreme court saying that of course article 50 needs to be triggered through parliament, however if you look at the decision it was 8-3, which means we do have three dissenters. there has been a little bit of movement, nothing huge. i think a lot of it was already priced in out of the stoxx 600 gaining a little bit, up some .4%. loss.d-dollar pairing joining us now, anthony brown and still with us is gilles
moec. reaction, what does it actually mean for the brexit members tor your does not mean they are any wiser. is the: clearly this result everyone was expecting. through the democratic and legal process to go through. what banks want is clarity, and the bank has said publicly before, this will not change either the outcome or the timeline, that the industry will still be preparing for article 50 to be triggered at the end of march, and the e.u. to leave the e.u. in 2019. francine: it is very difficult for parliament to go against the will of the people. it would be much more difficult or theresa may because she will struggle with amendments that will be put down by people who were against brexit in the first place. not get clearly, we do
involved in the democratic and legal process, and we totally support the government in the outcome of the referendum. what business needs is clarity and we would not want huge uncertainty. we have no idea what is going on now so we want clarity, certainty. minutes, this was six the president of the supreme court was very targeted. are we actually any wiser about the difficulty of passing such a bill? gilles: not necessarily, and there was no definition of what exactly he is asking. for me, the trick is the possibility that the devolved institutions would be involved as that could tremendously complicate matters. unanimously this was rejected by the supreme court. francine: how much are you worried -- this basically means theresa may needs to seek the permission of parliament to trigger this two-year countdown. if you do not actually have
anything in place after two years, the u.k. automatically leaves. do some of your members worry about that? anthony: what we want is an orderly transition. we want to avoid the cliff edge effect where we suddenly leave the e.u. and go to wto rules where it suddenly falls away. we have to make sure there is a transition arrangement. ,hen the prime minister spoke we need a phasing in. , but it is going to be a tricky process. getting a new agreement is going to become located. she said she wants to do it in two years. good luck. what we want is as much order and certainty as possible. francine: does a ruling like this impact your forecast for the u.k.? i do not know psychologically if you will consume more, consume less. we had such stark warnings as to
how the u.k. economy would do post brexit, and we have done the concert -- contrary. gilles: we have not been doing very well at trying to inject psychology. on transition, to me it is the key issue. unfortunately because of the timetable and the negotiation, transitions will come late in the process. full clarity will take a bit of time, and that is in the meantime that the negative fax could accumulate. we have -- facts critic emulate. -- accumulate. it is already in the pipeline. francine: gilles moec, thank you for joining us. anthony greene, we will come back to you in the second. let's go to anna edwards. ,nna: outside the supreme court
among all of the assembled international media, we have to conduct -- we are joined by john .ann, labor mp he is on the treasury select committee as well. tell us where you think you will have next. how will the vote in parliament go? >> the vote will be to enact a brexit and the vote will be, i predict next week, i think the government will release the bill in the next 24 hours and there will be a vote as early as monday. anna: there could be a lot of amendments attached to the bill. >> i do not know that there are many. it is a straightforward bill. anna: you do not think the labour party will want to attach amendments? >> i think it will not need amendments. stay in the single market, for example? >> it will be a very simple bill
and i think it will get through parliament by a huge majority. anna: some are suggesting it could take months if there are amendments attached. they might attach amendments about other elections. can try, but we expect this to be the parliament within four weeks. anna: do think the target of getting this done by march is achievable? is achievable under parliamentary rules and we will see all next week the debate. i think we will see the government acting quickly and the most labor constituencies -- anna: what about those that represent constituencies that wanted to remain? >> they will have a dilemma. the overwhelming majority of labor has voted to lead, some by a very large majority, and that is a mandate the labor mps have lost. you just ask them
politely? >> i think this will get through parliament with a huge majority of 300 or 400. anna: because members of parliament did not want to see them standing in their way, the way the people have voted? >> it is by a significant majority to leave so regardless of your views coming you have a mandate. your constituencies boat is that way, the country's vote is that way -- vote is that way, the country's vote is that way. anna: if something were to hold up the process, what do you think it might be? could tryse of lords that they are in danger of messing themselves. i think the negotiations will be much more complex for the government. there is a period of two years of negotiation. i think it will be quick. anna: thank you very much, john
mann, mp, with a view that perhaps not everybody in the house of commons will have. competing slightly with the various sides of this case. francine: we are just also getting some responses from jeremy corbyn, leader of the labour party saying labor will seek to amend article 50. he's his labor will seek to build in full access to the market. we are also hearing a response from the uk's government, saying they will comply with the judgment of the court and will an act the brexit decision that will be a political matter. let's get back to anthony brown. is there any way, or do you assume from what we heard that we are losing access to the single market in terms of passporting right or is there any way to get it back? anthony: it is important to
distinguish between membership and access to the single market. she has ruled out membership and that is something we have not taken a position on because there are a lot more issues. we are a to ensure access to the single market. the banks based in the u.k. conserve customers in europe and we want to preserve that mutual access. an agreement that currently exists under e.u. regulations, there are other ways of doing it that we want to make sure we keep that visual access across the channel. francine: you retained access by paying, right? when the u.k. have to pay? no particularve view, but some ministers have raised the issue of paying for access but that will be a decision for the government. we want to make sure that customers across europe can carry on getting the financial services they need from london,
and london can continue to get the financial services they need from banks across europe. francine: how much are you worried that your banks will be taking decisions to leave london ? some banks are taking precautionary steps to move certain bankers to paris. the ceo of ubs told me they were taking potential measures to move bankers to frankfurt. if this takes too long, will they have already left? anthony: banks have to plan ahead. what we do not know is what legal framework there will be for banks based in the u.k. to carry on with corporate customers across europe. they are planning for that as the eventuality, and they are all doing contingency plans, looking at what they need to do, what changes they need to make. i can say the banks are not keen to move.
they have kids in school here, etc., but some banks will decide they need to move some staff. francine: will they act as a group? i am unclear so let's say there is a harbor exit, and you need to move staff. do the banks say, let's all move to frankfurt because we can build an infrastructure? anthony: there is not any discussion like that. any different financial systems are looking for governance, and it depends on what legal structure the banks have. if you have a massive management business in dublin you might decide to move your business there. it depends on what structure you have at the moment and what other alternatives arrangements you can look at. .ou do not have to move staff banks have said they think they can work within existing structures and not moving staff. francine: is there a common misconception on how banks look
at brexit? i do not know if people are afraid or markets are afraid if we move too quickly, are we all must jumping at shadows? is, you the trouble have two years and that is not long in business planning terms. if you do decide to set up an operation in europe, to get the legal situation set up, the i.t., etc., businesses have to plan ahead. you cannot make a decision on monday, execute on tuesday, and serve customers on wednesday. we want to know what is happening. francine: do you think you will know that by the early summer were we have to wait until the end of the year.
one of the big uncertainties is the fact that we have the biggest elections in major countries this year. most major negotiating policy for government may be changed. francine: let's go straight to -- >> good morning. today, eight of the 11 sir brain judges upheld the judgment handed down -- supreme judges upheld the judgment handed down, in a case that went to the very heart of our constitution and how we are governed. only parliament can grant rights to the british people and only parliament and take them away. governmentnister, no can expect to be unanswerable or unchallenged. our limit alone is sovereign. this ruling today means that mps we have elected will rightfully have the opportunity to bring
their invaluable experience and expertise to bear in helping the government select the best course in the forthcoming brexit negotiations. negotiations that will frame our place in the world, and our destiny to come. there is no doubt that brexit is the most divisive issue of a generation. was about the legal process, not politics. today's decision -- francine: more from gina miller as the court ruled that brexit triggered needs parliamentary vote. can surveillance continues. -- surveillance continues. ♪
must seek the permission of parliament to trigger the countdown on brexit. the u.s. dollar is recovering some ground after comments from steven mnuchin. most --ts slump in the the most in two weeks. the relationship will likely cause a tense relationship between president erdogan. i am francine lacqua in london with tom keene in new york. we have already had one hour of surveillance with that supreme court ruling saint theresa may needs to go through parliament to trigger article 50. there are two ways to go about it, a more beefy bill or something that could take half a day and it seems that we are inching toward the first one. it may be a lot more painful for theresa may to bat away some of the amendments the against brexit people want. tom: basic idea is, could we get
a vote on this quickly? we do not know, but it is unlikely this will derail the brexit rss. -- process. it is just a problem of time. let's get to the bloomberg first word news. foror: this is a defeat theresa may as the supreme court judges ruled the government cannot formally begin the brexit process without approval from parliament. lawmakers in the house of commons supported the remain campaign on the referendum of whether to stay in the european union. legislators could slow down any bill by attaching amendments. members ofp told congress he believes he lost the popular vote because many undocumented immigrants cast votes for hillary clinton. then he said he used the word
"illegal" for many voters. a warning from u.s. treasury secretary nominee steven mnuchin . he said an excessively strong dollar could have a negative short-term effect on the economy. he met comments in response to written questions from senators. he is awaiting confirmation by the senate, which is yet to schedule a vote. australia is looking to salvage the pacific trade deal without the u.s.. martin type girl -- martin turnbull discussed it with shinzo abe. donald trump officially withdrew as a signatory to the 12 major -- nation accord yesterday. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. tom: let's go to equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. i'm going to let francine deal
with sterling after this important ruling. one big turn to the market, actually pretty quiet but the 210 flattens out. -- the 2-10 flattens out. you and your grandfather would sit there while men smoke cigars and sit on the floor. francine: with that voice, right? it would not be a normal voice. .om: the dollar flat mexican peso shows continue strength and this is a good rebound off of the inauguration. euro-swissie i am watching carefully. francine: definitely the thing i am watching out for the most is the pound, but the pound actually whipsawed a little bit. it,ently, but we find 1.2490, movement up and then down.
or a two main things, the court says parliament, the vote basically to trigger article 50 needs to go to parliament but there is no need to consult scotland, which is why we saw a little bit of zigzagging on pound. tom: this is a chart that mr. trump would know. i need to put another lever in the bottle. i called him mr. trump and not .eter -- president trump this is the wage growth in america taking out the percent growth for inflation. ifis a what if chart, what you were a citizen of america and you had to live with 3% inflation? before the financial crisis you have positive wage growth after a 3% adjustment. this is when things change and down we go to the asked that -- that got mr.st
trump elected. he is talking about positive wage growth after a 3% adjustment. this is the real fear, the structural change. we really have trouble getting wage growth after inflation back towards the zero line. to me, that is the chart that shows the anger and the angst that got donald trump elected president. francine: i have a single pound chart but instead of looking pound-dollar i want to look at pound-euro, and i brought it back to 1975. the question is whether we will see parity for euro-pound. is to try tooday exactly figure out what happened today, and there is two things we need to look at. the court saying parliament needed to trigger article 50 but do not need to consult scotland.
the markets are kind of going back to what they thought, as expected, but there were about a million questions on this court ruling. anna edwards joins us live outside the u.k. supreme court for more. also with us, carl weinberg. and gilles moec. great work out there today, anna. give us a sense of what the markets were expecting. the fact that theresa may does not need to consult scotland is quite significant. anna: absolutely, francine. given, the judgment ended down by the supreme court. , we 40 minutes or so ago heard from justice nyberg are, the president of the supreme --rt -- justice nyberg are just this new burger -- a time -- 8-3 but this needs to go to
parliament and parliament is to have it say, but it does not need to have the explicit consultation of this devolved administrations in in borough -- edinburgh and other parts of the u.k. the market thought this was going to go, the government lost its appeal and it is going to parliament. francine: what does this actually mean? it is unlikely this will derail brexit that it may take longer for article trigger -- article 50 to be triggered. anna: there are 650 seats in the houses of parliament. the conservatives have 329. can they rely on all of those mps to vote with the government? probably most of them. many of the other parties who were for remain have come around to backing brexit so this is not seen as something that is going
to stop brexit, but it could relay it. a spoke to an mp who said bill could be passed quickly, but that is not everybody's view. jeremy corbyn said they will seek amendments to this bill, and that will take time. there will be decision-making on how many amendments and for how long they will be debated, and that will conclude when we might see articles 50 triggered -- article 50 triggered. tom: help our audience with the power of the prime minister, is her power diminished by this ruling? we had a government spokesman saying the government is disappointed, but they are pleased to live and a country where even the government is subject to the rule of law. that is the view they have taken this morning and they will now concentrate on enacting what has been handed down by the judge today. her power has not been diminished in the sense that at
least she does not have to ask the devolved government to approve what she is trying to do . if we were to head into a situation where edinburgh had a veto over what london can do, that would raise constitutional questions and reduce her power. she has to admit she has lost his appeal. she said she was arguing some sort of prerogative power. anna, thank you so much. anna edwards in front of the supreme court where we had that ruling, the first time we had 11 supreme court judges sitting together and the verdict was six minutes long and announced by the president. let's bring in carl weinberg and gilles moec. brexit viewed is by the markets? it seems the markets still have a glimmer of hope it is not happening. carl: i think americans have
accepted it is going to happen and they are puzzled by it. the financial markets have certainly stabilized. i think for the moment everybody is curious to see how it plays out, and i think americans will be watching the summit this friday between our prime minister -- your prime minister and our new president. deals, wetrade sometimes forget if there was a special relationship, trade deals take four or five years or 10 years. this could take place after peach trump -- president trump has left office. >> i think that part has not yet hit the market. there is a serious possibility we do go through it. important is quite that we do not have to devolve to it -- edinburgh.
i think the economy is also going to come through, which has not happened yet. that euro-sterling chart is likely to go higher. francine: number 10 has put out a statement saying, the ruling the triggeringd of article 50 in march. tom: explained that headline again. francine: the prime minister, theresa may has always said she wanted to trigger it by the end of march, and there is a question of whether you need to go through parliament and whether she will still be able to stick to that timetable. she has said she still wants to trigger article 50 through parliament by the end of march. .arl weinberg with us coming up later today on bloomberg television, we speak with gina miller, brexit lead plaintiff.
francine: this is bloomberg surveillance, i am francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. taylor: shares of bt group are plunging this morning. the company more than tripled a to moren at its unit than $661 million after a probe found more faulty accounting and inappropriate behavior than the company first identified. this will reduce third-quarter revenue and earnings. james hogan will step down as chief executive officer as the
abu dhabi company struggles with mounting losses. the australian will leave in the etind half as eddie had -- had reviews. at the is considering a appeal of the federal government ruling that blocks its acquisition of humana. the judge said it violates antitrust laws. the ruling may bode poorly for the planned merger between anthem and cigna, which is awaiting a ruling. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: thank you so much. the dollar dropping after comments from steven mnuchin that an excessively strong currency could have a negative impact on the economy. asian current -- e.m. asian currencies ticked higher. -- thank you both
for sticking around. what are the markets pricing in or seeing? if america is first, what does that mean for the rest of the world? carl: it is really hard to know what the answers are. we are hoping in a few weeks that we will get a little bit more clarity out of what the trump administration is going to do. we have theresa may coming this friday to the white house, talking about trade and nato. it will be a chance for the administration to work with a friendly other government, and show that it can be friendly. we have meetings coming up with anada, which will also be smooth meeting although the canadians have issues with trade in the u.s., and the mexican meeting will be a little harder. francine: we will talk region by region about these trade deals.
what does the stronger dollar mean for emerging-market currencies? bhanu: so far the dollar has weakened and the perspective is when the dollar is stronger -- i think e.m.'s problems run much deeper than that. why is the dollar strengthened because mark if it is the industry is at 1.3 and there is genuine inflation, it will be mixed. if the dollar is strengthen a zinc -- strengthening because of protectionism, i think that will be much worse for emerging markets. you have seen some of that reflation rhetoric that dissipated in that the market has taken real rates lower, but no protectionism risk is being priced in. if you look at since trump's election in the u.s., the ball been -- that. has
risk i do not think is in the market. tom: i know you were penciling this out over two yesterday at clay urges. urges caridges. can you quantify a half a point taken out of gdp less or more, particularly due to export dynamics in america? , il: when we think about gdp am guessing you are talking about u.s. gdp. the thing that has our chief economist is that we might get more inflation out of the trump policies. whatever fiscal stimulus we might get or other kinds of cosmic increases, we would be pushing against an economy that the fed has already said is pretty close to its target of full employment and high stability. if the fed was going to hike anyway there is a chance at what hike more, leading to a stronger
dollar. it feeds to perhaps more surprise in the market of what to expect out of the fed. tom: can you and jim o'sullivan extrapolate the policy of donald trump to wage growth? this is wages and benefits in america back to 2001, less 3% inflation along the way. it is not happening for good part of america, dr. weinberg. anyyou extrapolate forward kind of wage growth out of this reflation and any trump economic growth? let a be really careful here, because we do not really know what the policies are going to be, and in particular it is not just what mr. trump thinks but what congress thinks because at the end of the day, and a fiscal stimulus, tax policy change, change in obamacare, infrastructure spending has to be approved by congress.
they are not necessarily on the same page as the president with regards to any of this. i can say that real wages right now are not doing very well, that a tightening labor market should make them do better. we can all agree that stronger wage growth is something we want to see in the united states. the debate is what is the best way to do it, and the president has not been clear on what he wants, and congress has not been clear on what they are thinking about delivering. for sure they are on totally different pages from the padgett -- president as far as tax reform. francine: do you start from the premise that whatever benefits america puts a damper on the rest of the world? bhanu: no, i do not think so. why would that happen? that would happen if the world has battered -- borrowed massively in dollars. of capital rises you
will see the mpv of many of those companies come down, but if the u.s. is doing extremely well you will see companies do well as well. the issue arises when the credit risk crisis, you see the cost of capital going up without earnings growth and i think that is the possibility in the rise of protectionism, which is not priced into the markets. tom: let's come back to this discussion. what we see in the united states and the importance of pre-and court vote in the united kingdom. coming up later on bloomberg daybreak, robert shiller, author of finance and the good society, maybe he can speak on finance in the trump society. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: francine and tom from london and new york. carl here to talk about deflating the economy and what donald trump means for the market. let me bring you to my chart, yellow is when donald trump got elected. blue you have the emerging-market currencies. this shows you that currency counterparts have not bounced back as much as anticipated. is this a trend that will continue? .hanu: i do not think so i think emerging markets will smell the coffee and you will probably see currencies weakening because we are not
coming from a volatility where trade growth has been strong. i think it will impact earnings. one thing you have not spoken about is china. you have seen reasonable growth in china. there has been a big break in correlation between dollar and commodities and i do not think that is likely to be lost. francine: we actually have a whole section dedicated to china. carl weinberg and bhanu baweja stay with us. ministerpeak with the about opec and some of the resilience we have seen, and how to balance the books. this is bloomberg. ♪
kevin's a really will join us -- kevin's a really -- kevin will join us later. taylor: as we have been talking about, the highest court in the u.k. has ruled on brexit. theresa may must get parliament's permission before trickling the countdown to leave the european union russian triggering the countdown -- triggering the countdown to leave the european union. enjoyed byrights u.k. citizens will be changed. therefore, the government cannot trigger article 50 without parliament authorizing that course. the decision threatens the prime minister's march 31 deadline for starting the process. some members of the conservative party are concerned it could hurt the economy by jeopardizing trade to get control of immigration.
officially the ceo -- head of the cia. he was confirmed despite some democratic objection that he has been less than transparent on torture, and russia's meddling in the europe election -- u.s. election. a plan by bill cassidy of louisiana and sue collins will replace -- for minnesota governor mark dayton. he collapsed while delivering his state of the state speech yesterday, striking his head on a lectern. he was helped into a back room and his son tweeted out his dad is doing great you'd this was not the first incident.
last february he was hospitalized after fainting at a hot and crowded event. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. oil has been moving higher as the rock is close to letting its side of -- iraq -- saudi arabia says 80% of the targeted reduction has been in effect. with us this morning is emmanuel kachikwu, joining us for an exclusive conversation. does difficultt is it to predict the oil price? match -- may be matched by shale producers in the united states. emmanuel: we are obviously
hoping we will be able to get the prices over the $60 margin, but your guess is as good as mine. it has been firmed up and executed properly, and there is also near 100% compliance. i think over the next few months it will get us where we want to be, in the mid-60's. francine: what does that mean for the output level of opec? how do you reach these mid-60 levels? emmanuel: i think enforcement, if you look at the level of consumption. consumption is slightly higher. stock is declining even though the shale capital is there. in an era of trumpet medic -- americanism -- trump americanism you will probably see more with shale. we do not anticipate that anything will take it over the
$65 mark, but if we get 60, coming from where we are that is a lot of leverage. francine: minister, i need to ask you about cuts made by nigeria as you are exempt from the opec cut deal but there is a huge discrepancy between how much nigeria says it is pumping and how much opec estimates you are pumping. how much are you pumping, once and for all? point,l: at this probably in the region of 1.5. normally it would be about 2.2, so the exemption anticipates at best case we will be able to get back to where we were before but certainly not higher. i would imagine as we wrap up our ability to deal with the militant issues and increase production, it will form. then we will begin to look at
opec asking us to do cuts. right now, 1.5 is the number. francine: if you do start making increases in production, do you think opec will force you to adhere to cuts or doesn't mean other members of opec will do the cutting? eventually weink will join the culture climate. the willingness of everybody to contribute, the willingness of nigeria over the past two years, militants have had significant cost. barrels on a0,000 daily basis over the last two years. i would imagine that given what 1.5, take away, the 400,000 we probably will struggle to get to 1.8 in the
next couple of months. francine: how concerned are you about the deterioration of security in the niger delta? emmanuel: it is coming from where we came, 1.3 trillion barrels all the way down to 1.59 21.8. i think we have done quite well. there is a huge amount of work to be done. lot more efficient in terms of policing. i am sure you are aware about the vice president, [ indiscernible] engagement, and once the oil-producing states, at the end of it what we need to do is convince the niger delta citizens that we mean well.
he does want to solve the problem. [indiscernible] a diplomat work is three agent -- as a diplomat agent. francine: give us a sense of what regions or countries are buying a lot of your oil. that would give us a picture of where you see strength, and where imports are increasing. emmanuel: asia, india, china are quite bullish. that really i would say is the theical matter we have, shares are picking up. part of our production goes to the oil companies and it goes to america.
u.s., so whenhe we say the u.s. is not buying, they are not buying nigeria's share of jv oil but they are taking in the joint venture mobil and exxon chevron's. across europe, you see hell shale activity -- how shale activity, it goes into their refinery. barrels, one million goes to the national. francine: minister, where do you see the breakeven point for a lot of these shale producers in the united states? or 55, you are expecting the price of oil to reach mid-60 that it could drop back very quickly. emmanuel: that is always the risk. as technology improves, shale
continues to it decline. -- two decline. do --pec members need to this cost reducer and we still are. most of it is below $20 a barrel. nigeria is struggling to get its number within this bracket so as long as we continue to do that, there is margin to survive the difficulty. what will be impactful if the investment. at what point do investors feel that their returns in oil are not good enough to be able to continue the investments? it depends on the cost of production for east country, but as you see the price of oil slide back there is a lot of risk. today, investments are probably about 40% or 50% of what it used to be. you need to price in. francine: minister, thank you so
much, emmanuel kachikwu, the night -- nigerian manager of petroleum. and carl weinberg with us bhanu as well. and how it links into global gdp growth. here is a chart of brent crude, long-term downturn, 100 down to 30. then we get to the 55 level. what is the correlation of what we just heard from the minister in the global economic growth? sorry, all of opec is a slave to global economic growth, aren't they? bhanu: i think they are, that is a great point. oil prices have practically doubled from their lows and the markets have done extremely well. what are the markets pricing in? u.s. high yields, corporate
markets are pricing in oil at $70 to $75. the minister said the reason oil prices are going to go up is because you have supply constraints and countries that are sticking to those constraints. when oil places go up because of supply you do not actually see gdp benefiting. oil prices go up because of strong demand, and there is strong demand from india and china but this is a supply driven increased and that does not feed into global gdp. if prices go up because of supply reasons, that will be medium-term disinflationary. prices willink oil spiral higher. i think 65 is about right and from there it will likely come lower. i think that is going to cap the increase in oil prices. tom: you slice and dice all the
g-7 nations. we see elevated innovate -- elevated inflation in germany. how much of the inflation pop in germany, how much of the inflation pop presumed we will see in the united states is just a one-year look back on oil? carl: you are exactly right. what people are fretting about is just headline inflation reflecting the drop in the basis for the year over year calculation from a year ago. it says that about two thirds of the jump we saw in the german headline ceo came from things ago.happened a year in terms of the oil market, i'm going to disagree a little bit. we are looking at inventory and we see the countries have 66 days of inventories on hand, with normal being around 54. 12 days of supply is 480 million
barrels of oil floating around and i do not see how this rise in oil prices to maintain traction, even if opec were able to reduce its net output by a million barrels a day and they probably have not done that. we would still be 480 days away from normal inventories, and it would be more expensive to hold those inventories. i do not see a lot of traction for the higher oil price scenario to go further. francine: we will get back to both of our guests, carl weinberg and the ban. -- bhanu baweja. users canterminal follow to live. it is a great function. this is bloomberg. ♪
tom: i have lost count, 98 days in, 97 days in. an extraordinary moment of consecutive and sequential history out of the white house, all sorts of coverage. i urge you to go to all media outlets to get analysis of the many steps that the rom is taking. -- president trump is taking. we will go to kevin's a really illi coming up. with us are carl weinberg and bhanu baweja. bring up this chart, if you would, this is bhanu's sort of
world. there was a good time, green to 95.0 years, 75 and then down we go to a new level. you know about a global productivity slowdown. can any given president with a bust of winston churchill start productivity? carl: i do not think anybody really has the answer, and the president has come to us a series of measures he think will do -- thanks will do it, but i am skeptical. i do not have a good theory of productivity and i do not know any economist that does. in the single business cycle there is not a clear correlation. i would support any effort to increase investment spending, and there could be tax policies that can do that but it remains
to be seen what this president puts on the table, and then we can get judgment as to whether congress will pass it. tom: help me with dm, your wheelhouse -- e.m., your wheelhouse, mexico peso printing 22, they are buttressed up against resistance moving to an ever weaker currency. what is the outcome if president currencies those em ever weaker against the stroller donkey -- stronger dollar? likely. think that is so far it has not been a big deal. we really must say this, global trade has been in a recession for at least five years, even before you have seen protectionism go up. if you do see protectionism rising, i think the likes of mexico, while they will take a hit they are much better priced than the others. i think that is where the risk
is being underpriced in dollar-asia. it will be taking place at a time when global trade is slowing. in our analysis we found the elasticity of trade to gdp is one of the most highly corresponded trends with productivity. if we see higher productivity and weaker trade, there is no trade -- expect tom: this is an incredibly important concept, the elasticity or responsiveness of trade into economic growth, i am uncertain who in the white house understands what was just said. francine: they understand trade wars, and if we go to china, what is the probability of a trade war? it is a bit of easier jargon to grapple the elasticity. i would like to think
that it is 30%, but he has said very clearly again and again that i mean what i say. he is coming in and talking about the border adjustment tax, currency manipulation. i do not think the currency manipulation label is likely to go through, but tariffs are likely. the entire point of the adjustment is to bring taxes back, which means lower foreign investment. the balance of payments for mexico, china, korea, that can take a hit. the probability i think is not low, 30% to 50%, and china is not going to risk it for nothing. this creates an opportunity for china in terms of becoming a bigger player in terms of trade and that is a longer-term issue. tom: important decisions not only in the united kingdom,
francine: time for our morning must-read. and our chart of the hour, turkish lira. the focus is on turkey ahead of the central bank decision. it is too late for a delicate approach. yesterday's decree that the government was going to fix the exchange rate for private sector dollar debt is another signal that the country is on the verge of a serious currency crisis. with us are carl weinberg and bhanu baweja. thereos they were saying are back doors to bolster the lira, but at the end of the day will it have to be a simple raising of the interest rate to get the lira back in check? bhanu: you do not bolster currencies through backdoors. it has to be a hike that they
seem to have conviction and they communicated very carefully, and they have to be prepared for more. the recent history in the last couple of weeks and the actions they have taken in terms of the epics walks and the emerging liquidity window suggests a are not willing to take it another 150 basis points higher and be ready for more. i think this currency will stay under pressure. francine: at some point do they have to hike aggressively? bhanu: very much so. i think the real rates need to be higher by another 150 basis point and they do not seem to be doing that in the near term. tom: what is the character of turkish economy and turkish economic growth that is going to save them of these market dynamics, what is it they are going to do? consume, export, invest? carl: i am no expert on the
turkish economy. currency crises usually leads to a major restructuring of the export sector. we have seen that over and over again so that is what we have to have, a crash, a burn, and a rebuilt. you would know if the policies are in place for that. bhanu: i think you need to get gdp growth lower to save the turkish lira, to have an economy that is slowing i think you need to see the currency come up. tom: thank you so much, i do not mean to cut you off. an important turkish decision, the supreme court ruling in london, and of course trump's america. ♪
monday, what will the president do this tuesday? maybe alternative facts. kevin cirilli- will report from washington. parliament may have a say in brexit? gome minister may must before she -- must go to -- and sallie krawcheck considers the power of women. you should own her new book. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live from our world headquarters in new york. newsine, extraordinary flow. right now, how does prime minister may, as she gets ready to visit with mr. trump on friday? byncine: she gets ready looking at the parliamentary decision. what is most interesting now is justthe turkish division crossed our terminal. the turkish central bank is
living the benchmark repo rate at 3%. i know we have a regression chart, there is a falling zero -- there is a falling lira, and we hear the deputy prime is to again and again say they want to support the u.s. through back channels. at the moment it is a political hot potato. president erdogan wants to have a referendum to give himself more power. he does not want higher interest rates. tom: you have the turkish lira at 3.82. that gets it right back to january weakness. francine: we did not know it to expect from the turkish central bank. now it seems to be business as usual. they did not change anything with the repo rate. tom: bring up this chart. i want to get to this before we go to "first word news" with taylor. this is the pro-chart i use. i usually do not finish -- i
usually do not show this on tv. would be aer 3.92 breakout to new weakness in turkish lira. we are not there yet. that is enough on the turkish lira. let's get to taylor riggs with our "first rude news." -- first word news." theor: judges ruled that british government cannot formally begin the brexit process without a vote from parliament. that is likely to delay may's timetable. legislators can slow down any bill by tacking -- by attacking a minutes. don't trump told members -- president trump told members that he believes that he won the popular vote.
it is and am still sent you to claim that he made as president-elect that grew widespread criticism. a warning from u.s. treasury secretary nominee steven mnuchin. he said an excessively strong dollar could have a negative effect on the economy. he made the comments in response to britain's questions from senators. -- former goldman sachs -- the australian prime minister discussed a deal on monday night with shinzo i am and held talks with leaders of new zealand and singapore. donald trump formally withdrew as a single tory debt as a signatory with the 12 nation accord yesterday. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. francine? tom? tom: francine will talk lira with stability during let's go
to data right now. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. we have so much news flow. dollar churning with the curve flattening, a little bit of risk-on field. a little bit of risk-on feel. the mexican peso a little bit weaker, maybe on the back of the turkish lira. francine? francine: this is similar to what i have in terms of the chart. i am looking for the pound. i saw a little bit of a zigzag. a one-day intraday move for pound, but overall the markets are trying to get in their stride. emerging markets at 0.2%. -- gaining at 0.2%. supreme to the court. anna edwards, we heard from the supreme court judges that the prime minister will have to go
to parliament. it is significant that she does not have to consult with scotland about what the next that is for brexit. : exactly, francine. that is a significant point that was made by the judge when he handed the down -- handed down london time.t 9:30 consideredis will be -- this will be considerably longer than the piece of legislation put before parliament. looking tor will be put forth a brief, simply worded document to give fellow do not want they too many amendments. they want to get this through parliament as quickly as possible. they might not have a quick run at that. we understand that many of the parties in parliament are going
to try to bring forward significant amendments to at least take the hard edges off brexit, to delay brexit a little bit. in an hour and a half we will year from the brexit secretary. he will be speaking in parliament. francine: what do we know about the timeline? article 50 will be triggered by the end of march. are we still in line for that? anna: that is what the government says they will do. in an hour and a half we will hear more from the brexit secretary. let me highlight for you the number of amendments we have flag already. the s&p, the third largest party in parliament. they said they are going to bring 50 amendments to whatever the bill is that is put before parliament. it then falls to the speaker of the house, john burke go. decides hown who many of these amendments are allowed in and how many of them get airtime.
that is crucial. tom: anna edwards, thank you for your coverage this morning, from london. joining us now, the hong kong and shanghai banking corporation, kevin logan. in the cold,hool in the freezing of rochester, new york, and then he went south where it is warmer, ithaca and cornell. kevin, you have such an interesting call with steve major's call on low rates. 'sllar mayor -- daragh maher call. do you need to dampen expectations? kevin: we already made a change in now or once the election took place. it was clear that some type of fiscal stimulus was coming, given what mr. trump had campaigned on -- tax cuts, changes in corporate taxes, potentially higher defense and infrastructure spending. all of that to faster growth. tom: can it be sustained?
kevin: it has not even started yet. early days, we really have to see how congress behaves. they are the ones who make the laws. from a have heard that number of guests. let's bring the chart up of wage and benefit rope in the united states. -- of wage and benefit growth in the united states. this is adjusted for 3% inflation. so if we are all living 3% inflation, we have negative wage growth, three vectors of where we can go. do you have any confidence that president trump can boost wages and benefits for the average american -- not fancy guys like you and me? kevin: with the unemployment rate as low as it is, averaging 4.9% over the last quarter, the labor market is getting tighter. we have seen a pickup in nominal wage growth. any acceleration in overall demand is likely to pick up the wages asr labor and
well. this is likely to have an even if hillary clinton had been elected. but with mr. trump in the white house, it is likely to have an and with more intensity. francine: what ie ks level for dollar? kevin: the dollar -- when we talk about the dollar, we have to talk about different currencies, not just the dollar's average exchange rate. we were talking pound-sterling moore to go. that hinges on brexit. there is not quite as strong a dollar as earlier administrations were perceiving, particularly back in the clinton era. at the time there was worry about capital flows to the united states, keeping interest anes down, making the u.s. attractive place for capital flows to invest. the world is changing a lot. the returne lowered, on capital could be higher. francine: how much is already
priced in? kevin: quite a lot. now we are seeing a push back. the recent comments by mr. mnuchin, perhaps the dollar could be too stronger in some circumstances. that is a shift, a real new tone from the american administration. quickly, when you talk about an intensity and the quickness of gdp under president trump, can it be sustained, or is it a one-off of 12 or 18 or even 36 months he act oh kevin: that is something that we should be -- 12 or 18 or even 36 months? kevin: that is something we should be concerned about. by 2011, the economy slowed down again. there is a risk by 2019, after a burst of activity, and particularly if the fed is tightening policy, there is the
he gives us an update. let me go first to business flash with taylor riggs. shares of bt group are plunging. the british telecommunications company more than aaa write down at its -- more than tripled a write-down. the write-down will reduce third-quarter revenue and earnings. there is a change at the top of -- airlines. the hogan will step down as etihad.e from the company says the global search for a new ceo and cfo is underway. considering the appeal of a .ederal judge's ruling the judge said the transaction violates antitrust laws by
reducing competition among insurers. the ruling may bode poorly for the merger between anthem and cigna, which was challenged by the justice department and is awaiting a ruling. that is your "bloomberg business flash." 198, on we go with the trump administration. kevin cirilli is keeping score, our chief washington correspondent. kevin, absolutely remarkable, the minutia of this, that, and the other thing. what is the body language of the white house? the little bit you have observed in the hallways, the corridors? kevin: they are getting down to business and looking to reshape economic policy. on his first full business day in the white house, taking a remarkable position and withdrawing from the trans-pacific partnership, sending shockwaves through many conference whoan
worked with president obama on tpp. his treasury secretary nominee, steven mnuchin, sent a response senatetors in the responding to his nomination process and said that he would be taking a look at currency manipulation, and that an excessively strong dollar actually could have negative implications in the short term. tom: i want to dovetail bloomberg's world into a world where we are all reading worldwide. that would be not so much dodd-frank, but the economists from -- the economist from texas a&m, mr. henn serling -- mr. hensarling. will he get along with mr. trump? kevin: they are. as a strongsarling relationship with mike pence and a long history with him on
economics back when mike pence was serving in congress. sources on capitol hill tell me yesterday that chairman jeb hensarling huddled with his committee along with his counterpart in the senate, senator mike crapo, the senate and committee chairman and the chief topic of conversation was how to dismantle key portions of dodd-frank. legislation,g's the financial choice act, is going to be the benchmark once laughed that months ago when it was first revealed. it now appears to be the blueprint for financial deregulatory policy. francine: we are getting tweets from president trump, talking about automakers. he says he will meet with top automobile executives are that meeting will be at 9:00 a.m. new york time, and he wants new auto plants to be built in the u.s. for cars sold here.
what will his relationship be like? how will it shift and change through the months between president trump and the co's? kevin: yesterday he met with other business leaders, including elon musk, including his manufacturing council, and today he's meeting with auto industry ceo's. so clearly the messaging out of the west wing is that they want to project that they are going to be meeting with u.s. business leaders in order to, again, craft that economic policy. i remember on the campaign trail he said that he would take no issue with meeting with ceo's, directly opening that line of communication to what he says protect u.s. jobs. when you again take the broader, bigger picture, when you think back on friday to his inaugural address, he spoke in that nationalistic, protectionist
rhetoric, i think you are already getting to see that based on his first 48 hours in the presidency. tom: kevin cirilli, thank you so much. greatly appreciate it. that was outstanding, from kevin cirilli. kevin logan is with us from hsbc . the kind 101 -- i'm sorry, -- econ 101 -- i'm sorry, the trump the art ofuns into strategy. how does bmw respond in spartanburg when they hear mr. trump say everything in the u.s. has to come back home? kevin: it is remarkable because the conventional economics is being turned on its head. mr. trump is coming in with something totally unconventional. the previous state of affairs thought that free markets were optimal, the capital should move to the locations that provided the best returns. mr. trump said, no, that has not benefited people. tom: is this mercantilism?
kevin: we are moving in that direction for certain. returns are not going to be based on what the market dictates but rather on what mr. trump sees as political dictates, that serve the people who elected him, bringing jobs back. francine: how many jobs are we talking about being brought back ? 2000 or 3000? what does that mean if there is a stronger dollar? you lose out by selling exports even if you bring jobs back to america. kevin: you are right, the level of employment in the automobile industry has come down over the decades, partly because of automation, but partly because of jobs created outside the country. we are probably only talking about a few thousand jobs, but that might make a big difference in certain communities. there will be multiplier effects and demonstration effects. it is happening, we are getting more jobs. trump, thatfor mr.
will be optimal showing things are changing. whether or not they change on a macroeconomic level, that is something else. tom: kevin cirilli and kevin logan with us during this hour. coming up on "daybreak," an important conversation with congresswoman waters from california. maxine waters, on the new president. this is bloomberg. ♪
surveillance." let's get straight to turkey. turkey's central bank is raising its lending rate. they did not change interest rates. fromuest joins us istanbul. the problem is that the turkish central bank came saying -- the central bank keeps saying -- when will they hike interest rates? >> the central bank said that inflation expectation and other factors impacting inflation will be closely monitored, and it needed -- and if needed, further tightening will be done. as you just said, they have raised the overnight rate and the liquidity rates. for the liquidity rate, it went up from 10% to 11%, and almost 40% of the bank's funding comes from there.
that was all expected. but it made interest rates unchanged. thank you so much. simin demokan. interest to be higher. coming up, we speak with a u.k. member of parliament. just a reminder, you can also go,ow all of us on to live -- on tv go. any viewer with a bloomberg that,al -- you look at you can see our producers. this is bloomberg. ♪
we will go back to london in a secondary right now, turkish lira stability. the central bank steps in to protect e turkish lira stability. here is taylor riggs. taylor: the highest court in the u.k. has ruled on brexit. the ruling came at the supreme court. >> when the u.k. withdraws from the e.u. treaties, a source of u.k. law will be cut off. further, certain rights in joined -- certain rights enjoyed by u.k. citizens will be changed. therefore, the government cannot trigger article 50 without parliament authorizing it. -- somethe decision members from the conservative party are concerned that theresa may could hurt the economy by jeopardizing trade to win control of immigration. mike pompeo is the new director
of the cia. the kansas congressman was sworn in less led by vice president mike pence. the senate confirmed president trump's nominee to run the cia, despite objections that he has been less than transparent about his positions on torture, surveillance, and russia's meddling in the u.s. election. two republican senators they to --ropose legislation the play by bill cassidy of louisiana and susan collins of maine was a retreat from repealing obama's law. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. tom? francine? francine: let's bring it back to brexit. anna edwards joins us outside the u.k. supreme court.
anna: let's get straight to our guest. exit in the e.u. select committee. given what we have heard today from the supreme court and the fact that this needs to go before parliament, is the government timetable for this triggering article 50 by the end of march? does that look ambitious? >> we will year from david davis, the secretary of state in the house, in about an hour. we will look to what he says about when the government intends to bring the legislation in. i suspect the government will want to meet that timetable. it depends on the nature of the bill and how many amendments there are two it. voteovernment is going to to trigger article 50, because if you respect the outcome of the referendum, including for those to remain -- including for those who campaigned to remain, you have to start the process. that is why i am sure it is going to happen.
anna: we have already heard from various parties about the amendments. your own labor toward -- your own labor party talked about an amended. the s&p says it will bring in -- the s mp says it will bring in 50. there could be a lot to debate before article 50 is triggered. >> that may will be the case. what needs to happen now alongside the legislation is we need a white paper from the government. that parliament can debate alongside the bill as it comes forward. the view in parliament will be pretty clear. we need to ensure that in this negotiation come at the end, there needs to be barrier free access to our largest single market. we need clarity about the rights of british citizens. in we will cooperate protection against terrorism,
that weure we ensure continue to cooperate on research, aviation safety, a whole lot of questions. and at the end of the negotiations, that is the moment when parliament should have a vote because parliament might say that looks ok but we are not so sure about that. you take it away and get some improvement? at the end, parliament decides what it things about the deal in the same way that the other 27 member states will. you see the labour party backing the liberal democrat amendment that calls for a second referendum, taking it to the people once again? >> that will be for individual mp's to decide. -- it will beer for them to decide. that will be a matter for the shadow cabinet. my own view is, no, because we
just had a referendum. anna: do you think all the labour party mp's will go along you make surethat that there is single market access? hilary: i think on this issue -- let's be honest about this -- the nation showed itself to be divided, 52% to 48%. people have strong opinions, long-held views. i think we should respect one another in holding the views that we have and reconciling those with the decision the british people have made. but my own view is i shall vote to trigger article 50. it to remain,vote i respect the outcome of the referendum. but i have little doubt, from talking to many people and listening to what mp's have said, i have little doubt that article will vote to trigger article 50. scottisht about the
administration's question, that there is some disappointment about this? do you think the case for independence is strengthened by what we heard today? the smp has been a long-standing campaigner for scotland. what we should focus on is getting a best deal for britain, for scotland, for whales, for england, in the negotiations we are going to engage in -- for wales, for england, in the negotiations we are going to engage in today. it is for the u.k. parliament, in which there is scottish representation, welsh representation. has is right and proper pay in the other referendum come in 2014, the people of scotland vote at remain part of the united kingdom.
we should respect that outcome, too. anna: thank you very much for joining us. francine? tom? francine: thank you so much, and edwards, with that important interview with hilary benn. we are getting breaking news out of alibaba, the chinese consumer giant. there has been a lot of pushback against whether alibaba can keep the momentum. they beat come in terms of analyst estimates for -- the beach, in terms of analyst at -- they beat, in terms of analyst estimates, for the quarter. strong, butains also a very strong singles' day. if you break it down, e-commerce is exceptional. fiscal 2017on on revenue is down 53%. we are trying to keep and have a little bit of news on physical stores, whether alibaba is generating more revenue from
merchants by selling services to boost their profits. they are buying a couple of department stores. there is a little bit of a reversal from what we are seeing in america. this is a company that started online that is trying to get physical stores. tom: let's continue on brexit after anna edwards' wonderful interview there with mr. benn. we do this through dollar dynamics, maybe through the sterling. this is an extraordinary chart. this is a david bloom/dara marr -- daragh maher chart. a weaker sterling, brexit, down we go. and then we have migrated in an ugly pattern down. hsbc was way out front to get to sterling right there.
how does that the stabilize dynamics not only between the united kingdom and the u.s., but looking at eurosterling between the united kingdom and the rest of europe? kevin: we take the view that sterling is a barometer of a hard versus soft brexit. we think they're ultimately will be a hard brexit, not a clean break but a heartbreak between trade, between the u.k. and europe, and a heartbreak -- and a hard break on immigration. the pound sterling has to adjust to that, to adjust to prices and flows of capital. right now, every time there is new news coming out of britain, you see the sterling moving up and down. are we moving faster toward the hard brexit, or are we moving away from a? it is going to stretch out the time for brexit, but at the same time it does not remove the process of a hard brexit.
at some point they have to make or break. it,ay be stretched out of but i do not think the trend toward the 1.10 on sterling will change. 101, do i assume that the long-term devaluation -- in this case sterling, or even a short three-year devaluation of sterling -- leads to a wealth reduction for the nation, or can supposedly exports make up for that? i do not buy it. kevin: people are going to have fewer goods to absorb. that is often a phrase you will hear he and trade theory. how much is available for the population to consume? if britain go down is going to move closer to a trade surplus. there has to be less consumption within that there has to be less for consumption within britain. -- there has to be less for consumption with britain. is talking krawcheck
francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. i am francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. here is taylor riggs. more timehoo! needs to meet closing conditions while recovering from the disclosure of massive hacks to its user accounts. last month the company revealed as many as a billion accounts had been compromised. verizon is exploring a price cut or possible exit from the $12.8 billion deal. credit suisse says warren buffett's rescue -- record may
be risky business. the deal may be so big that berkshire hathaway risks its first underwriting losses 2002. emirates is about to wrap up its dispute with u.s. air carriers. the airline will begin its daily flight that links dubai and new york via athens. that adds fuel over the battle over whether persian gulf airlines are unfairly flooding the skies with flights to the u.s. that is your "bloomberg business flash." tom: we will do a couple of things before we get to sallie krawcheck. they are all linked in with her. trump puts protectionism at the heart of the u.s. economic policy. it is a photo opportunity.
hence a michael dell over on the right side at davos. he has a private company. i do not know what he is doing. but these two guys, we know off the bloomberg. the president is screaming about buy american. mr. gorski of the johnson & johnson company is sitting quietly. he gets 52% of his revenue abroad. average it out. it is a photo op for the 60% of thesed people get their money's from abroad. ?ow about a photo this is from sallie krawcheck. a la vecan we show this on tv? sallie: dollar ties. tom: sallie krawcheck is with us. delivering first order securities analysis for sanford bernstein, where she broke
original ground. book is "own it." it is not a touchy-feely book. this is the real thing, and it is hard-hitting. you go right after diversity councils, saying no. sallie: i think we have seen this in 2016. diversity has stalled. gender progress -- we have seen it in politics, but in business as well, for all the discussion and the debate about the power of diversity, it has stalled. on wall street, it has gone backwards. is your prescription to get away from the happy talk of the recent decade? sallie: for ceo's, start to just doing it -- start to just do it. the return onet equity is where the greater innovation. but the number one reason millennials leave their jobs
today is to make more money. than half says come on, if you do this day to day, it is not that hard. what is holding up the rest of corporate america? sallie: because they think it is that hard. it is so much easier to bring in diverse individuals and treat them like middle-aged white guys. be confident, make your case, thee your hand for responsibility as opposed to pulling out of everybody the different things they bring to work that drive the power of diversity. francine: do we just need more transparency? more transparency in the workforce means that you know how much everyone is paid at how many people are employed. and it is through transparency that everyone can fight for diversity. it is difficult for me to see where i should be fighting, for example. sallie: that is a great point. on today's trajectory, we are
either 100 years, 150 years, 180 years away from gender pay parity. we are way away, when all of a sudden there are these resources. comparablyses higher, when we can go in and see how much we should be paying. ago, itould go in years would be "please give me a raise." today it is, "this is now much -- this is how much i should be making." francine: how can we be more inclusive? sallie: i think boards have not taken the bull by the horns. everybody says this is important, but when your ceo shows up and says i know, i would love to put susie in that jim reminds me so much of me -- the board finds it
difficult to question those individual decisions, despite what research indicates. tom: let's look at the video. we did a research project. of this the video weekend. this is extraordinary. i want to tie this in the you have 4 million women marching. it is a huge deal, but how many of those women took trigonometry yak of you go right to it on page 132 of your book. that women idea cannot do math is just baloney. sallie krawcheck invented this on wall street with your work on sanford bernstein. are more women saying, screw the stereotype, i am doing trig? sallie: we are now starting to talk about the gender money gaps. with women, there are several gender money gaps that cost us millions over the course of our lives.
there is a whole guidebook on this. i am focused on is the gender investing gap, which costs women hunched of thousands or millions, and we still buy the ozzie and harriet math is for guys, guys are better investors than women. neither of those things are true. tom: i try to think of the percentage of our audience who do not know who ozzie and harriet are. sallie: that is way back. "gilligan's island." "the partridge family," may be. we need to actively move away. this is a place of stereotypes. this is the one that drives me nuts -- women need more .inancial education to invest you are right. except the guys need more, too, but they invest anyway. here is the final point. industry simple -- a bull.
not a lot of women are looking at that and saying it is for me. francine: we will be back with kevin logan and sallie. we are getting more johnson & johnson figures over the last couple of minutes. i am looking to see if there are any headline figures. earnings-per-share are below estimates. we will look at what the top analysts make of this. that is coming up next. also coming up on "bloomberg daybreak: americas," a conversation with dominic caruso, the johnson & johnson chief financial officer. this is bloomberg. ♪
tom: foreign-exchange not part of the story today, but there it is. turkish lira was at 3.82, i believe, a weakening off the news of what the central bank did. but it has come back to 3.78. let me go to the single best chart, in outer -- in honor of sallie krawcheck, who is with us. men is white women, white 25 to 54. x axes.e two
the slope of that line is down, down, down. the headline is women are doing a little bit better in the recovery. why? kevin: a lot of it has to do with manufacturing. that is why there was more of a drop in male employment. it happens that in the good sector of the economy -- in the goods sector of the economy, more men are working men women. lagging, section is partly because of a recession in trade. that is what is showing up in this chart. francine: will donald trump create good quality jobs for women? know that wenot know a lot of what donald trump is going to do, but i would tell you that i think this can continue. if you look at the changes in technology and what it is
driving in business, part of the point that we make and own is that -- is the qualities that women bring to work. relationship management, risk awareness, holistic decision-making, long-term perspective. we bring a lot of great things that are hard to outsource. the improvements will continue in spades. it is not just a little bit, tom. the research is clear. tom: sallie krawcheck, congratulations on your new book. we will continue on bloomberg radio. stay with bloomberg all day. ♪
"bloomberg daybreak." in the markets, some trade rally started as far as equities are concerned. if you switch up the board and get to the fx market, it looks a little something like this. sessioner dollar brexit's nextix: step. prime minister theresa may must seek the permission of parliament. dollar dilemma. steven mnuchin says excessively strong dollar may hurt the u.s. economy. trump had to meet with ceos of detroit's big three automakers as he looks to persuade manufacturers to keep production in the u.s. jon: