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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  January 24, 2017 11:00am-12:01pm EST

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bloomberg. ♪ mark: we are going to take you from detroit to amsterdam covering stories out of u.k., turkey, and washington, d.c. here are the top stories on the bloomberg and from around the world. in global politics, the u.k. highest court ruled that theresa may must pass an act of parliament before she can open divorce talks with the eu. vonnie: more executive actions on keystone xl and decoder access pipelines from donald trump. we will tell you what this means for energy and jobs in america. markets are moving after trumps treasury takes a strong move
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that could have a negative short-term affect on the economy. manager onh an asset whether we should expect larger than usual volatility ahead. european equities are trading just before 30 minutes ahead of the close today. theresa may, the prime minister cannot trigger article 50 without parliament. she does not have to consult --s part of the process. there should be some trouble getting it done in two months. she wants to achieve that by the end of march. stocks are rising today. sterling declining against the dollar. it is just a massive move in the corporate space today. shares are up as much as 11%. biggest gain since may 2010.
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thatlic of reporting italy's second-biggest lender is considering making an all stock offer for generali, the insurance company. this comes after the insurer but as a defensiveis move following speculation they may make a bid. that was according to people familiar with the matter. forysts say and offer generali is unlikely to succeed because of competition concerns and the complexity of such a deal. shares are up 8.5%. ever,wer, biggest decline more than triple its italian unit to 530 million pounds after a probe found faulty accounting and inappropriate behavior than the company first identified. this is an increase from 145
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million pounds introduced in october. also, they cut their outlook as the impact of brexit works its way through government budgets. shares down 20% today, 1/5 of the value. that is nothing considered to the shares. 31% lower. biggest decliner in europe today. the swiss company says earnings will drop 20% this year as their oldest umpire brand struggles to bend off the twinkie in the u.s.. they misjudged the consequences spunkmeier inotis the u.s.. some analysts concerned the brand is becoming a competitor at the same time the company is having to contend with the revived hostess brand.
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they look to generate half of their revenue from north america. shares getting hammered. biggest the klein ever. down 31%. let's get over to the markets desk. how is it looking there? >> we are looking at small gains today. not a lot of action here. another morning where we are seeing stocks basically unchanged. this happened yesterday. it feels as those stocks maybe trying to make their way higher. the nasdaq is up 1.25%. the day is young. these small moves are similar to what we are seeing frequently, at least on a closing basis. we have seen more intraday volatility. , it hasat the bloomberg been 31 days since we have seen a percent move up or down in the s&p 500. 71 days since we have seen a
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move down. that is the longest stretch since 2006. not a lot of closing action the s&p 500. the last few times this has happened, it has ended in volatility, sometimes to the upside or downside. we will probably see this still make break soon on information as investors are looking for more certainty in the macro picture. we are looking at big moves. we will take a look at the imap. this is a great way to look at the sectors. materials are up 2%. we -- benny the call service, we have the movers. nice beat from dupont. verizon missing earnings estimates. we see the stop is down. it is weighing on at&t.
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vonnie: locking has started a call as well. on bloombergn first word news. >> good morning. any minute, donald trump is expected to sign an executive order to advance the construction of two controversial pipelines. the keystone pipeline was rejected under president obama. the work of the dakota access pipeline has been stalled since september. earlier the president said his administration is bringing manufacturing back to the u.s. donald trump met today at the white house with ceos from general mortars, four, and fiat chrysler. >> we will have many other plans. you are not being single down. we will have a lot of plants from a lot of different items built in the u.s. it is happening.
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it is happening big league. >> he also said there would be a short process to get environmental permits. his choice for secretary of state makes his first visit to the state department since his nomination. rex tillerson will attend a number of briefings. the senate foreign relations committee has approved his nomination. the full senate may approve him as early as today. is being warned not to move their embassy from jerusalem. such as that could unleash new violence. i have urged donald trump not to follow through on his campaign -- from telove the aviv. news, powered by more than 26 hundred journalists and analysts. mark: thank you.
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let's get to our top stories today. theresa may needs the permission of parliament to trigger the countdown to brexit. anna edwards joins us from outside the supreme court in london. fromy jefferson joins us -- what is the significance of today's ruling? >> thank you. at 97 pages of judgment from the supreme court, the 11th supreme court justices behind me find against the government. they stuck with the decision of the high court, which means theresa may and her government have to go through parliament to trigger article 50. not everything went against the government.
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been the ssibility that the government would be told they need to consult the parliament in scotland, the assembly in wales, and northern ireland. they did not do that. that is not what the supreme court said had to be done. bad news if you leave the scottish nationalists party. good news for theresa may. plenty of hurdles ahead. the government still wants to trigger article 50 by the end of march. that could be a tall order when you consider all the stages of the legislative process that need to be gone through in the house of commons and house of lords to get a bill we have not seen yet through parliament. bad news for nicola sturgeon. where does this leave scotland? building theare narrative that there is democratic deficit and the european union and the only way for scotland to get what they want is to have independence.
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i don't think this was unexpected at the scottish national party. at the same time, it was all about whether the convention would be upheld, and they have said strongly today that they expect that convention to be of help lyrically if not legally -- upheld politically if not legally. she said an independence referendum could be highly likely. i think we have taken another step towards that. vonnie: how likely would it be that the nationals would win? >> i think there has to be toething fairly dramatic avoid another independence referendum. i think there also has to be something dramatic for the nationalists to win that referendum. i would not bet against either. they have a good pedigree and campaigning. the pulse of not shifted from last time, which was the 55%
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both in favor of remaining. that would be sometime in the autumn of 2018. there is a lot of politics before then. i want to go back to the supreme court decision. what is the next step now? is this the end of all court proceedings? >> there could be other challenges. this is all about article 50. article 127, you may hear about this. whetherolves around there is a difference between leaving the european union and leaving the european economic area. there is also a case going through the dublin core about whether once triggered article 50 can be revoked and you can be allowed back in to the european union. that might end up being heard about the european court of justice at the time the u.k. has
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voted to leave. many suggest that is because many people want to leave the jurisdiction of the european court of justice. there will be hurdles to go through on this particular ruling and further legal hurdles for the government. mark: great job today. anna edwards in london. romney jefferson in edinburgh. coming up we will talk with didier duret. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: i am mark barton cotton you down to the european close.
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just about 16 minutes away. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn. it is time for latest business flash, a look at the largest stories in business news right now. 2016 was the best year for sales of previously owned homes since 2006. almost 5.5 million existing homes were sold. average price was $232,000, that is up 4% from last year. horizons latest stumble is putting pressure on the phone company to transform into a media and advertising rival. verizon cut prices and offered free iphones but attracted fewer customers than expected. your business flash for this hour. let's get back to the markets. in a ranges trading
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this week. joining us is didier duret, chief investment officer for abn amro private banking which has hundred $13 billion in assets under management. so-called credit traits. it seems like the market is waiting for a pivot in rhetoric to action. why are we not seeing that? didier: we see in the current days the executive orders coming out very swiftly from the white house. the real action will be when the process will start. this is really process that is in the end of the white house and president, then we have a full cycle that goes until october. that is really where the tax initiatives and fiscal stimulus will be visible. that will be highly watched and those are potential market movers for the months to come. for the moment, we are in a
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trading range. if you look at the u.s. dollar and u.s. treasuries on the stock markets, most of what was expected after the election has only happened in the markets. we need something new. say we get some kind of , what aretax policy the traits that become unattractive? didier: i think it still makes sense to be overweight equities and to keep a detailed towards cyclical factors. cyclical factors should represent the core of the portfolio. it is just the reverse of what was played before the election of donald trump. sector, alsoe i.t. at energy and banking, it is priced at economical positions.
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dollarow do we view the -- steven mnuchin moved the dollar overnight, it has since come back from those lows. trump ministrations able to keep the dollar down -- is the trump administration able to keep the dollar down? talk the dollar down even if it wanted to? didier: i think talking the dollar is not that easy because the main driver will be what happens in the treasury market because it will create yield differentials with the other markets. were really the formulation of the budget, so we are back on square one. neutral, orudget will we go deep into deficit?
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that will have an impact on the yield and the dollar. should we have a higher deficit, that could trigger positive drive towards the dollar. been many have false dawns. the last year positive was 2013. is it time to focus on the core of european economic strength rather than focusing on the negative side, the upcoming lyrical calendar? year where the fundamentals of earnings growth is going to give a boost to the european equity market? didier: i think this is one of the lessons from last year that it is great to put attention on fundamentals. in europe, the earnings should barely shift from the times that we see globally improvement on
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pmi or consumer confidence is also in a nice shape. these are the elements for earnings in the double-digit area. there is one thing for sure when it comes to the european market, if we stay with the u.s. market, we are at something like 15% discount. we will remain at this level. ofshould not expect too much european stocks. there are good picks. what are we to do with companies that have large international exposure, whether they are based in the u.k. or u.s.? do we become more trepidation is given that there are more regional deals rather than multilateral deals? didier: we should not make the assumption that global companies will be highly violently
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affected from any blows coming from the trump administration. global companies are managing their business line globally as well as the markets. i think technology, the patterns are managed globally. i think there is a huge elements of resilience in the structure of the companies. let's say the element to be careful. at the am looking emerging markets index. they had regained their losses since the trump election. is this the beginning? or have we seen the best of the rebound? didier: we can attribute the rebound to the fact that the u.s. yield has stabilized and the dollar has stabilized. there is still a permanent cloud over emerging markets should interest rates start to rise, they will start to underperform
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again. mark: thank you for joining us. didier duret, chief investment officer at abn amro. breaking news. vonnie: we have some of those executive orders, mark. i'm looking to see what exactly they are. donald trump has been signing them in the oval office. we know that it was looking to nafta and we will bring those as soon as we have them. one of them is on the keystone pipeline. we have that confirmed. he has signed an executive order on the keystone pipeline. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: breaking news, donald trump signing executive orders in the oval office on the keystone pipeline and also on the dakota access pipeline, and
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a third executive order. we are not quite sure what that is yet. donald trump saying, "we are going to make the pipe in the u.s." that is according to the present. a fourth executive order this morning on regulations. we will get more details. we know that we now have a fifth executive order to expedite environmental reviews. we knew that the president had been planning these orders. we now have those. as well as a couple of others. michael mckee is with us. u.s. made pipelines are now ,oing to be built from canada transcanada, through the north dakota access. >> it is hard to know whether these will actually be u.s. made pipes or not because i have not read the executive orders and the authority the president is
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looking for. expediting environmental reviews is key. both of those pipelines have been stopped by executive order. president obama had authority over keystone because it crossed an international boundary. that is not mean they will not continue to be lawsuits against their construction. a lot of those turn on environmental effects. the standing rock indians had argued this would be environmentally damaging to the reservation even if it does not cross the reservation. that will have to be litigated. these increase the chances that both will go forward. vonnie: we have one part of the pipeline already built. >> most of keystone has already been built. this is a segment down from alberta across iowa, nebraska, and into a collection facility in illinois and south to the gulf of mexico where they have a lot of refineries that can handle the heavy crude from the
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canadian tar sands. some of that would be exported, some would be cap in the u.s. -- kept in the u.s. donald trump says he will announce a supreme court nominee next week. what does this mean for jobs? submitanscanada need to another formal application to build a pipeline? >> i do not know on that. i would assume their current application is still live and could be used and probably will be because this is a continuation of a project already underway. the same thing with dakota access. most of that has been built. it is a small section of it that still needs to be worked on. the dakota access, much of it has been built. the job creation that would come from that probably is not going to be significant. there could be according to the
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state department about 4000 construction jobs for one year or two years for the keystone pipeline and several tens of thousands of ancillary jobs that would come out of that. neither pipeline creates significant long-term jobs. keystone, according to transcanada, would create about 35 long-term jobs and the same roughly four to go to access. for dakota access. d stock inmp owne transcanada. both of them have stalled that -- sold that stock. vonnie: why was there such a delay? president obama was avoiding trying to make a decision one way or another on this. we are looking at pictures in the oval office moments ago following the signing of the executive orders. >> things happen. people who work opposed to the
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use of carbon fuels did not want more carbon fuels coming to market. that was a big argument on the environmental sidea larg reason the president blocked he's done. the other reason is that it would do environmental damage in the state of nebraska and iowa. the nebraska supreme court that he did that. vonnie: he will listen to donald trump now. khan: we looked -- mr. trump: we will see if that can get built. great construction jobs. ok. .eystone pipeline
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this is with respect to the construction of the dakota access pipeline. dakota access pipeline. again, subject to terms and conditions to be negotiated by us. ok. pres. trump: this is construction of pipelines in this country. we are, and i am very insistent that if we are going to build pipelines in the united states, the pipe should be made in the
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united states, so unless there is difficulty with that -- companies will have to gear up. much pipeline is bought from other countries. from now, we will start making pipelines in the united states. in the united states -- we built the pipelines. we want to build the pipe. it is going to put a lot of workers -- a lot of steelworkers back to work. ok. we will build our own pipeline. we will build our own pipes. that is what it has to do with. like we used to, in the old days. this is about streamlining the incredible -- incredibly cumbersome, long, horrible, permitting process, and reducing regulatory burdens for domestic
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manufacturing. many of the people we have been meeting with over the last -- long period of time, but yesterday and others, the process is so long and cumbersome, they give up before the end. sometimes it takes many years, and we do not want that to happen. : president donald trump has been signing executive orders. he showed them to the camera. one on keystone, one of the dakota access pipeline. he is not talking about regulations. he also said if the u.s. builds pipelines, the pipe should be made in the u.s.. we have michael mckee. the pipeline has already been dealt for the most part, and we know 28,000 jobs will not be created. why is the president saying they will. michael: well, you never know why donald trump says what he says, but when you talk about haspipelines, most of that
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been built. this is a small segment that needs to be completed. after the protests that took place in the standing rock reservation last month in november, the army corps of engineers put a hold on it while they did additional environmental study to see whether or not it would have an impact. trump is, as we understand it, directing the army corps of engineers to issue a permit to continue that project. we do not know how many additional jobs will be created since it is already being worked on. the keystone pipeline as much as three quarters of the pipeline has been finished. there is a new phase four, and constructing that would create 20,000re from 2000 to jobs, depend on who you believe, but the state department estimated about 4000 construction jobs and 43,000 ancillary jobs over the life of the project. you get 35 permanent jobs
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running the pipeline. concerns stop that, as well as, i think part of what played into it was the declining price of oil. it became less important. now in terms of any job creation, and of course donald trump's campaign pledg to open up the u.s. to additional energy exploration, this has now moved forward. what is interesting about this is it is canadian oil that we are talking about -- he is talking about our pipeline, but it is going to be the canadian's oil. this will play into the nafta debate because this is an import from canada into the united states and it suggests maybe mr. trump is not looking to penalize the canadians as much as he is the mexicans in terms of renegotiating nafta. one of the things that could happen if the price of oil goes up is it could create a trade deficit with canada. not clear how he wants to handle that. vonnie: the president has said he will announce next week's
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nominee to replace the late justice antonin scalia on the supreme court. a 49-year-old judge from the 10th circuit court in colorado is the favorite right now. once again, the president saying next week he will announce his nominee to replace the late justice antonin scalia a. this is in the context of the president signing several executive orders, saying keystone and dakota are subject to negotiations, but he has expedited approval for high priority infrastructure, the regulation order, and also mentioning the supreme court nominee will be announced next week, mark. mark: the tuesday session is over -- stocks finishing higher for the first day in four for the worst losing stretch since early november. stoxx 600 up by one quarter of 1%. story here, of course, the supreme court ruling --
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theresa may, u.k. prime minister, can not trigger article 50 without the backing of both houses of parliament. this is the bloomberg british pound index. this is 9:30 a.m. london time -- pound up, pound down, little change for the end of the day. 3% pound index rebalancing in a week after may brexit speech left it. the thinking is this ruling by the highest court want halt the brexit process. it might delay it if opponents of brexit try to put various roadblocks in the way. easyjet is a big story -- the low-cost rrier in theews.
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shares on by 8.2%, the biggest .ecline referendum and higher fuel costs will weigh on earnings more than expected. the currency impact will be 35 million pounds higher than previously expected. the prophets have been hit by following and string of terrorist attacks in europe, and capacity expansion across the this line -- the airline sector. quickly, we have some data out of the eurozone -- inflation is picking up according to ihs. the composite gauge has slipped in december. 55.4% economic momentum in the eurozone remaining robust. coming up, more reaction to the brexit decision.
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sir william cash, a lawmaker with the u.s. -- u.k. house of commons joins us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: live from london and new yorkam mark rtonith vonnie quinn. this is the european close of bloomberg markets. the uk's highest court ruling prime minister theresa may must pass an act of parliament before she can open divorce talks with the eu. the ruling will not stop article 50 from being triggered. it may still jeopardize her intention to do so by march 31. joining us, sir william cash. thank you very much for joining us. to what extent will today's
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ruling delay the triggering of article 50? sir cache: i don't think very much. is that mostly the members of parliament and the house of commons, with the exception of some liberal democrats, the only nine of them -- and some labor people -- apart from that, there should be a healthy majority for the limitation bill. -- implementation bill. mark: they have 50 amendments. labor has three. that is a lot of amendments for the house speaker to make a decision on. will there be amendments allowed and table -- could they be voted on and supported by some retaliatory mp's? sir cash: the short answer is amendments,down the
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but will they get selected. select ability depends on the content of the bill. the bill will be short. it will be simple. as i said this afternoon, it is really going to be outside of the sort of things that the labour party and those that are by the lead vote want to achieve. they cannot achieve it because i do not think the amendments they are proposing, generally speaking, will be easy to select. therefore, there will not be a vote on those. they will not even get debated. you do not see, so think this increases the chances of a softer brexit now? sir cash: no, and in fact, in the house of lords, although there will be a lot of going -- noise up there, they are unelected, and they don't have any real leverage on this in
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terms of the electorate as a whole. the referendum was a referendum for the whole of the united kingdom parliament. in thevoted through house of commons, 6-1. in the house of lords, it was voted through, and quite frankly, the idea they would now try to obstruct it, i think, is for the birds. vonnie: how -- mark: how much of a relief is it made that thester regional assemblies will not get a vote, will not get a say before she triggers article 50 -- is that a big blow for the likes of scotland? sir cash: well, i don't think it was ever a runner, actually. the fact is it is a great relief it is out of the way, and normally the any reference to the european court of justice. as far as the assemblies are iscerned, the referendum act an act of the united kingdom
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parliament. the actual content of the anopean communities act is act of the united kingdom parliament. so, there was never any real case for the assemblies to say they had a right to determine the outcome. think this makes the likelihood of another scottish referendum increas ir cash: well, if you look at the scottish credentials, they get a massive amount of money which is a form of grant which we pay to stop them, effectively. the fact is they are decreasing substantially in value. they scottish economy, from what we read, is anything like as effective as
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they would want to have a lost a referendum by 10% the last time around. the swords of armageddon and project fear, which were outrageous or presentations and misleading information has not happened. the ftse, as you just reported is up. the consumer price index is up. on implement is down. why would people want to jeopardize all of that to go into a dysfunctional european union which does not function properly -- is undemocratic, and has decisions taken time closed doors, and nobody knows who decides what, and the whole thing is a shambles -- it is not operate park -- properly. who would want to join now? mark: and you have been a vocal opponent for years to you see the eu is dominated by germany, and new president donald trump last week said the eu said-- said the eu is a vehicle for germany. are you pleased the new president is in agreement with you? sir cash: well, i have been
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arguing this since 1990 -- i wrote a book called the gates of federal europe, if anyone wants to look it up, and in june i published a book called "from brussels with love." we not want to be on bad terms with germany, but we will not be run by germany, and the voting system because of the immense actuallymany has is creating a very german-oriented domination. to the has a surplus other 27 member states on goods, services, imports, and exports of $82 billion a year. actually runsgdom a deficit of $62 billion. it does not make much to work out the fact that is a good deal for them but not for us to what goes with the power is the influence they have in the ining behind closed doors
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the council of ministers which nobody gets to see or hear. mark: thanks for joining us. thanks for taking time out to speak to us. sir cash: not at all. great pleasure. mark: the chairman of the european scrutiny committee. vonnie: great interview. we move to turkey now -- the central bank raised its lending rate by 75 basis points to 9.25%. at record lowsg against the dollar. the central bank has ruled out a series of unorthodox measures in recent weeks in closing -- including smoothing volatility. we are joined by our rates reporter, constantine. it was a 75 basis points increase. the market would have need something like 300 basis points to address the weakening of the lira, constantine.
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constantine: some houses were throwing around money -- numbers as high as 300, 400 basis points needed. the original reaction was the lira sold off rapidly, fell more than 1% against the dollar. perhaps a knee-jerk reaction to the fact they left their benchmark rate unchanged. the lira started recovering those losses during the day and recouped all of them. i think people started digesting the fact that the central bank actually met the market expectations on its key rate -- the overnight lending rate, and the late liquidity rate, and also it was bolstered by a positive em environment for today. vonnie: right. the lira has depreciated by a quarter, almost 45% in the last two years from january, 2016, right through today.
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-- 25% the last two years from january 2016 today. at what point do investors begin to bulk and is turkey become unattractive to sei? is a goode: it question. it is impossible to say. turkey has a large current account deficit and a big external financing need. buyer.nomy is a natural foreign-exchange has to causally sell lira to service the debt, service the current account deficit. orthodox monetary policy suggests you need to offer -- economies like turkey need to offer high enough rates to bring inflows in to support the currency. so, the fear is -- some investors fear the central bank is not willing -- not not willing, but is dragging its feet at times because it is dealing with a slowdown in the economy. summerthe crew in this
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that was a shock to the economy, the economic contraction. the central bank is stuck between choosing more monetary theulus and this desire for higher rates. can we expect further unorthodox measures -- there have been a few to help prop up the currency? constantine: it is a good question. important.ll be people will be watching the liquidity nomination. it can choose not to. it is at its discretion. it has been doing so for almost a week now. this is part of its unorthodox
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toolkit, tightening liquidity. the question is will it continue to do this in the coming days. mark: constantine, thank you for joining us. constantine courcoulas. staying on currencies, the dollar is moving after the treasury secretary steven mnuchin said an excessively strong greenback may hurt the economy. is he right? this is bloomberg. ♪
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battleime for our global of the charts -- we look at some of the most telling charts of the day and what they mean for the day. kicking things off, taylor riggs. take it away. taylor: we are talking about the dollar after steven mnuchin's comments yesterday. today, we are hitting a leg lower. we are now down to a seven-week low. what i want to talk about is
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what does this mean -- we spoke , sayingalyst from ubs how there are two types of dollar rally spewed a dollar rally comes from higher inflation. a bad dollar rally comes from protectionism. what are we seeing here, the big circle in gold, that was the election. inflationaryp's policies, but a little bit of the protectionism and sentiment we have been talking about. the other two circles -- the global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. -- said rate hike, the market price those indirectly. where are we going -- carl heinberg from high-frequency economics, he said it is supported by inflation. inflation is higher, the fed will hike. we also spoke with alessio from oppenheimer funds. he said even though we have seen cycleso 50% move, dollar
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go and you can see a leg from her. mark: and where can we find the chart? #b tv 5674. chart it was built after reading the great note on how this is beginning to turn up again in the last day or 2 -- the crowded train where we saw long dollar, short in, and a moving to treasuries. it started reversing a few days ago. as you can see, it became less obvious that the two were related, and yesterday again you saw a pickup in both. you can see the chart at 5676 -- jims a crowded trade says vogel, and there is a lack of commitment in the last day or two. -- i i cannot separate you
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declare it is a tie. everyone hates ties, but i am the judge, i decided to know it can doubt my verdict. well done. coming up later on bloomberg, a special conversation with jimmy principalor managing at sander audio. much more today at 2:00 p.m. new rk time. the trade today after three days of gains. stocks finished higher despite the supreme court ruling. fraction.s down a i will leave you with a currency board as well -- theresa may cannot trigger article 50 without the consent of parliament. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: it is noon in new york, 5:00 p.m. in london, and 1:00 a.m. in hong kong. i am vonnie quinn.
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david: and i am david gura. welcome to bloomberg markets. from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, we're going to take you from washington, to london and beijing. here are the top stories we're following. president donald trump signs two more executive orders meant to move along the approval process of both the keystone and dakota access pipeline. we will get a live report from washington. in global politics, the uk's highest court ruled theresa may must get parliamentary approval before she can open divorce talks with the european union. johnson & johnson posts fourth-quarter earnings that beat estimates, helped by its growing pharmaceutical division. abigail doolittle joins us with a look at the market. abigail: we're looking at modest gains for the major averages -- the dow, s&p, and nasdaq all opened essentially flat, little changed. now stocks are being pushed to the upside.


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