tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg February 6, 2017 11:00am-12:01pm EST
mark: we are going to take you from new york to london in the next hour, plus covering stories out of washington and moscow. here are the top stories following on the bloomberg app from around the world. travel ban ruling, president trump and opponents are bracing for the latest court decision which could come today. we look at whether the trump train has run its course in the markets. vonnie: as president trump tries to stale back -- scale back dodd-frank, what impact will that have on european banks? u.s. banks might have a competitive advantage. it is one of the more controversial relationships on the global stage. how will president trump and vladimir putin get along? criticst is kremlin
gary. mark: let's take a look at european equities right now. 30 minutes until the end of the session. it is a race on our go function. equities are declining like they did last week. all of these are falling in the second quarter against the dollar. we are seeing yields rise. the highest level since 2015. hit this critical phase of the french presidential contest. cbs has lots of corporate news to tell you about. shares did rise as much as 4% earlier. the top estimates outlined this broadband investment plan designed to turn the former monopoly into a carrier on premium content under the chief italia.e telecom
broadband services while facing new competition. shares are up by 1.7%. led a surgeorders in the investment goods demand, suggesting a strong run of europe's economy at the end of last year is set to continue. all of this a just for seasonal swings in inflation, and when they fell, a revised 3.6%. it is included in the three-month average. the purple line, which you can see is on an upward trend. let's finish off with gold. it is rallying and it could .pell more bad news for dollar this is gold versus the dollar spot index. it is the line going downwards. the closing price for spot bullion is a key technical level foreshadowing gains in the metal
and declines in the dollar. this is based on historical correlation between the two asset classes. that is according to a fixed income tech analyst on rbc securities. rbc says it could be the canary in the coal mine for the u.s. dollar goals which is within 6% this year after the worst .uarter in 19 minutes into the trading day in the u.s., how is it looking? >> it is negative but not by nearly as much as in europe. we've got a downdraft. the s&p is now 1/5 of 1%. we are seeing the pressure down on the nasdaq as well but not huge pressure. to come back to that volatility theme we came back to in the last hour we have talked about how correlations have been falling but there are different ways to measure volatility. one of them can be found at
5805. oe, we have talked about how the vix is really low. it is looking at the price buying protection for the dramatic move in stocks and that has continued to climb. that is just one underlying view of risk in the market. getting back to today's move, bucking the downtrend today with apple. those shares are a tense of 1% at their highest since july. apple has been trying to get further into india and appears to be trying to negotiate for more phones. they are talking about potentially selling refurbished iphones in india that are refurbished in india. that could be helping and there is this debate about an apple super cycle, a refreshed cycle that could be coming and i want to talk about what is going on in the dollar and oil. the dollar has been
strengthening today, particularly in europe but in other currencies as well. we tried to figure out what exactly spurred this decline. unable to find a specific catalyst but we did see the dollar reached its high around the same time we saw oil. energy stocks are really holding back gains in u.s. equities. mark: let's get back to the markets, continuing to rally last week in the face of uncertainty of some policy objectives. the s&p is up 7% since trump's election victory. let's bring in a markets reporter. we love this chart, with you alluded to, the white line is this local economic policy uncertainty which is clearly rising. the red line is the fear index. the volatility gauge. why is that such a divergence? >> that is a good question.
i struggled to understand myself. it is not hard to conjure up different risks out there from the collapse of trade questionnism, to , to theer the stimulus eurozone, to brexit, the markets have struck that off. i guess it makes sense in one sense which is that real life volatility has been very low. last year, we had two big event risks from the election and rex it. the market rally continues, so risks are pretty high. so trade is shrugging off some of those risks and based on last year's performance, analysts say, who can blame them? mark: if the reflation trade is still on -- if you look at
expectations rising and inflation rising, this is another chart which we titled "analysts behind the inflation ball." this tells us inflation is beating economist expectations. >> over the last couple of quarters we have seen an upturn in price pressures and we have seen u.s. inflation expectations rise not just because of the u.s. election. we are seeing macroeconomic data all around the world from toufacturing, in asia, buoyant consumer sentiment. that is the story dominating markets. global reflation. a surge in inflation. mark for real question markets now is when the court will rise with this big rally we have seen with inflation.
will it be justified by economic fundamentals? that is the question on the lips of market participants. vonnie: what is so fascinating is we haven't seen a rise in the vix in this movement. they charge 58 a yield. the vix is extremely low, where others have in rising steadily. you see it is not as high as it was but there was a big difference there. what is the reason behind this? frome index is derived risks. ,hey are punishing on low-cost at the same time a real question mark about why the fix is low. it impliesis low and volatility is mathematically derived in part by real life volatility. referenceparticipants
that maybe it will be quite costly to prolong some of those hedges. so maybe they can hedge their portfolios across asset classes the fairwe have seen index on wall street. many people might actually say that is an indicator of market signals going forward. from the highs x, it has not been correlated with s&p gain. mark: any asset class right now that isn't touched by what donald trump is doing? >> i really wish i had an answer for that. maybe the municipal bonds in guinea. maybe stocks in rwanda. mark: we are scraping the barrel. >> trump really is the story for global markets. even within the eurozone. you've got question marks about how the regulatory reordering of
the u.s. will kick off and that is going to have big repercussions. mark: which means you will have to come back again and again to tell us about it. thank you. guinea i am looking for bonds as we speak now. let's check in on first word news. courtney donohoe has more. >> the trump administration will try again today to get its controversial immigration been restarted. the justice department will present final arguments for forcing the band. donald trump to reinstate the restrictions. in london, british prime minister theresa may is meeting with israel's prime minister benjamin netanyahu. they are asking to support new sanctions on iran, saying iran wants to destroy israel. they say they are committed to a two state solution for israel and the palestinians.
mario draghi says he wants to move to cut purchases reflecting better outlook for the euro area economy. he told european lawmakers that falling prices are no longer a major problem. >> the evidence suggests that the acute deflation risks have disappeared. and that inflation is set to pick up over the coming years. >> the ecb's view is that current gains in inflation are driven by energy. there is no reason to discuss tightening monetary policy yet. last night's super bowl featured the greatest comeback in the game's history. tv ratings appear to have fallen short. that is according to culinary data of the broadcast. 49% of households tuned in which was less than the ratings for last years. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
mark: live from london, i am mark barton. we are counting you down to the european close. vonnie: from bloomberg world quarters in new york, i am vonnie quinn. lawmakers have begun a line by line debate on the legislation that would allow theresa may to formally start rights it negotiations. opposition mps have proposed 250 amendments to the bill. running us now from bloomberg, from westminster, is bloomberg
nejra cehic. 250 amendments. a 146 page document. would you show me today, it leads to the obvious question. how much is this going to be altered? i am glad you are not asking me about page 73 as you initially threatened, because it is 146 pages, more than 250 amendments by opposition lawmakers. there is certainly a risk that this could delay the timing of the triggering of article 50, currently planned for the end of march. the problem is that a number of theresa may's own lawmakers from the conservative party have said that they could support some of these opposition amendments. theresa may has a working majority of just 16 in the house of commons. we have heard from one lawmaker that there could be as many as 27 who are going to support these opposition amendments.
that could delay the process but not just that. it could change the negotiating stance that theresa may has when she approaches the eu with this brexit bill that they have finally voted into law. in terms of these amendments, not all of them are going to be discussed in the three days that have been set aside for this in the house of commons and the committee hearings but we are hearing that one that is going to be discussed involves the rights that eu citizens have who are currently living in the u.k. the other thing we have heard from officials familiar with the plan is that she is not willing to compromise with the conservative lawmakers wanting to support any of these opposition amendments. -- shereally is saying is being quite intransigent on the position, not willing to compromise and saying that they needed to support the brexit bill.
mark: let's talk process. what happens after the days of debate? tothe debate is scheduled start this afternoon in the house of commons and what happens is that a vote is scheduled on wednesday. if the amendments are made to and they arell voted into the house of commons and pushed up to the house of lords, if the amendments have been made it could embolden the house of lords to do the same and introduce their own amendments. it could cause for the delays and again, in some ways, we can theresa may's negotiating stance when she approaches the eu the other thing we have heard is that her conservative lawmakers are saying -- some of them are saying -- these rebel lawmakers, look, if you don't manage to make an exit we won't get to
come back to parliament. that causes more complications. mark: an interesting 48 hours ahead of us. nejra cehic in westminster. funny? vonnie: let's get more insight on the future of the european union. earlier today, we talked to the former prime minister of finland. they asked him about the rise of nationalism in europe. >> one of the key reasons why the european union was founded, the idea was to have an institutional structure whereby you wouldn't allow nationalism to take precedence. we are living in a global world and it would be quite useful if the eu did better on trade and world politics. they have to do it together but a lot of european leaders -- myself included -- we play to a domestic audience so we are saying everything that is bad comes from brussels and everything that is good is thanks to us at home. >> does donald trump actually destabilize? >> yes and no. he destabilizes world politics because the u.s. became the
champion of world politics, the only global leader post-world war ii. now he is giving that key away because you can't be at the leader of the free world or the leader of globalization if you can say no to both and the question is who is going to take the space? i think the europeans should try to do that. destabilizes in a sense that a lot of europeans are looking around. we don't want other trumps popping up like mushrooms in we don't want other trumps popping up like mushrooms in europe. let's do something about it. that will bring european leaders a little more together. dragh constraint that mr. i has is inflation and deflation in europe but helsinki says it all when you talk about it. moderation inable interest rates in finland, right down to the zero bound. howard and is it to have a trump reflation in finland. , the the end of the day
ecb and mario draghi are going to decide but if you look at finland as a specific case we have memories from a severe recession in the early 1990's when our unemployment rates went up to 18% and our interest rates went up to 20%. nobody wants that and we are actually quite happy with low interest rates in finland. a little bit of inflation would obviously do good. the way inlook at which the finished economy and the european economy is going, they are going in the right direction. >> this goes, again, to something relatively obscure finnishs the contender. it is a complexity of contention. >> the complexity is what it is in the prime minister spoke about the u.s. giving up the power, the total domination on
thanlobal scene but more 70 years after the end of the second world war and after the 1990's, wehe early still see europe not coming together. sense, i don't see the criticisms of the united states being so valid. the problem that you have in europe is the lack of willingness to take additional responsibilities. vonnie: global strategies there, and the former prime minister of finland before him. mark: still ahead, we discussed the impact of a rollback of dodd-frank on european banks. this is bloomberg. ♪
as quickly in the u.k. as we might otherwise have done. there will be opportunities where we work on a deal for 20 million customers. >> has brexit not been as bad as you thought or london is very exciting? or what? >> one of the benefits of what has happened is that sterling is weaker. calls on aing lower sterling basis. that helps with deals to go in and add an extra in places like naples, coke -- copenhagen and others. but we still see more growth going into mainland europe and the ratherovercoming damaged u.k. as we pivot away. >> is there uncertainty about what is going to happen with the hard brexit? >> michael was talking about a cliff edge. he was talking about the transition. when you look at sterling it is a huge risk. when you look at sterling, how much more weakness do you see in that?
does that invert? are the pickups coming into the u.k.? >> we've got very strong numbers everywhere. it is the kind of always getting better program that we have. we had a record 95% low in the factories. it is across all of europe. people continue to travel in the u.k. but people are traveling in the lower third. over the next 24 months, we may see a slowdown in the u.k. economy. impact not only on the u.k. but elsewhere. that is why we have to be cautious. there is a huge amount of opportunities. we only hit 15% market share in europe. there are a massive amount of things that we continue to do. hopefully we are not going away. >> are you thinking about scrapping the u.k. domestic region? >> we are reviewing it. a lot of it depends on the open skies. >> this is something that we can
do. it is relatively simple. if you look at our domestic u.k., we have three domestic routes on our network. it is a small part of our business. however, if we get close to the brexit and it seems this business is be want to stay in the, then we can, of course, open up a narrow certificate in the u.k. and operate under that. this is the contingency planning we are doing. >> neil solem there with bloomberg. let's check where markets are heading as we moved to the close. this is bloomberg. ♪
rising by 6/10 of 1%. would love to tell you about ryan era among them, reporting and 8% drop in third-quarter profits, cautious about meeting its full-year target. causingtering economy affairs to tumble. this is a company that brought about the effects of brexit after the referendum vote back shaving 75 million euros from its profit target following the slump in sterling against the euro that impacts the value of the sterling receipts when translated into a single currency. it did reiterate today that it expects to grow more slowly in the u.k. than it once planned. shares have arisen since the initial decline and two days after, shares were above 30% but they are down today. all eyes are on the french bond market today, the highest double 2015.september of
just earlier we saw some of it, the republican presidential speech andgave a made a number of valves, promising to reveal his financial and tax details, saying he did nothing wrong in employing members of his family. the scandal still centers on him. .e still see a move on the deal improving, the chairman said that there have been hundreds of polls and she is not ahead in any of them. the spread is the highest since 2013. putting it in context, this is the height of the european sovereign debt crisis. the yields are nowhere near the lowest levels. finishing with a wonderful chart, bears are targeting u.s. listed etf's following viewer area equities with 95,000 put
options that changed hands on friday. $33 with march, making put spreads on the securities, mostly composed of french stocks, the investor is no doubt preparing for a rise in volatility after next months expiration and a potential drop by may the first, france and april, the second round is may. fascinating chart. look at that. look at the etf. how is it looking there, vonnie? vonnie: pretty stunning. looks like the lady gaga spike last night that everyone is talking about. the bloomberg dollar index althoughning today, the rule is stronger today. buying for treasuries, the yield going lower with a little bit of uncertainty and trepidation out there, with china trading and
fixing with monetary tightening yuaniday and the offshore at 6.80, which is stronger. let's get straight to abigail deeded -- abigail doolittle. abigail: we are seeing a bit of a haven bid with gold being up nicely today. upwards third day in a row, which stands out -- what stands out here is gold rising higher. you don't typically see that. and a bloomberg technical strategist has made the point that gold has now retraced 60% of the trump selloff. look at the haven assets on the year we are seeing a stealth haven bid with stocks at all-time highs. gold is up 7%, second-year up in a row since that happened in 2012. dollar-yen is trading down, is ong us that the yen
pace for its best year since 2011. finally we do have the 10 year .ield trading down slightly this all fits one of the top stories in the bloomberg. top stories suggesting that all is not well. thelue we have the vix or fear gauge. and why we have the gold exchange traded commodity fund that allows investors to take a certificate and the -- demand delivery of one gram of gold. outstanding are thelutely soaring, even as fix was dropping to lows. a big divergence that speaks to the possibility that investors think that stocks may be due a pullback with investors going into gold and that way. vonnie: it's amazing, aren't they? demand for the underlying commodity. abigail: absolutely. vonnie: thank you.
we have more from the newsroom. >> president trump is arriving in tampa. he will see the briefing at the air force base and will make remarks to senior commanders and coalition representatives. in other words -- news, french from presidential candidates -- thefrench repressed -- french presidential candidate he has nothing to hide. he said that his wife worked as his parliamentary assistant for 15 years and that the practice is legal and he acknowledged it is no longer seen as acceptable and he apologized to the voters. a french newspaper reported that she was paid 900,000 dollars over 15 years. european union plans to renew the allies of vladimir putin, accused of destabilizing ukraine. imposed on 100 russians and ukrainians, the white house has said that no decisions have been
made yet regarding sanctions against russia. president trump says it could take until next year to come up with a placement for the affordable care act. he spoke about obamacare in an interview with fox news. republican lawmakers are trying to figure out how to repeal and replace the law after seven bers of calling for a to abolished. global news, powered by 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries. , thanks a lot. dodd-frank, facing roadblocks, but joining us now for a deeper "complicit author of ," mark gilbert, and a senior writer with us from new york. is it bad news? mark: they were using -- losing market share to matter how you look at it.
global equities, ema equity offerings, coming way beyond. anything that loosens the shackles and gives them more capital to employ is going to be bad news for european banks. if you look at the share performance of the last five years, dead in the water. bankselative basis, u.s. are on the same index. , it's going to be tricky, isn't it? there will be a number of roadblocks before dodd-frank can be repealed or scare -- scaled-back. happened last week was an executive order to review and study what can be changed. that doesn't mean that anything is going to change. the goal is of course to change things, but a lot of the parts of dodd-frank, they have to go through congress to be rewritten, repealed, or changed,
and that's not easy, because republicans don't have super majority, so they can't past everything. certain things can be changed in , but regulators do a lot of the other roles and they still have obama appointees. it is going to take a while their the regulators have trump appointed people too. digging into the arguments a little bit, stock can be replaced pretty quickly. the other argument that you make is the opposition by democrats, that they will be gelman eyes. particularly with goldman sachs in charge. they can't do everything, they aren't in the majority. why should it take so long if the administration really intends on doing this quickly? what happens in congress is some things can change. it's not completely blocked, but a lot of things they will be able to. regulators, it's not this
year that probably things can happen. maybe next year. a lot of the agencies, they are independent agencies in their heads cannot be replaced. the cftc chair has already resigned and said that they are going to ask for a replacement from trump, but those places still have terms that they haven't expired. vonnie: the president is in tampa now and will be heading to make dill air force base in order to speak to troops and commanders there. mark, back to you in london. is there anything european banks can do to lobby the u.s.? they have some points with having jobs here, right? yalman: european -- mark: european banks have been lobbying against those positions
and it looks like that might be , given that the trump administration seems to feel that u.s. relators shouldn't be court mating across international lines that way, that could be one place where the europeans could change it. but if you see credit this week with 13 million euros starting today, that's one of the key things that europe can do. get its own act together, sort out the balance sheet, look at those nonperforming loans that are a drag on the industry, basically become more like their u.s. counterparts in terms of accepting regulation as a new thing. they need stronger balances. >> you are worried about the european banking industry. there are signs that some are retrenching. that's not a good thing, is it? yalman: you can quickly -- mark: you can quickly become irrelevant.
pakistan, europe, deutsche bank will be universal. rbs has disappeared from the scene. credit suisse is pulling back. activities,rtain you got to be in the game and offering that capital, otherwise you don't get the rest of that business and you aren't there when they need you. i think that could become an issue for european banks, where they could become irrelevant. own problems,eir their own issues, misfortune since the financial crisis. the some of the finger of blame have to be pointed at the banks themselves? >> any european regulator will tell you they have fought and kicked against these since the crisis began. u.s. banks were much willing to accept their medicine, if you like. they also got their capital in much more quickly. and this nonperforming low -- loan issue is going to be a big drag if they cannot find a way to address that issue going forward. mario draghi this afternoon was
talking about european loans and it's a big hindrance to being able to service their customers. and you want banks to be able to service the functioning economy. mark: mark, thanks for joining us. mark gilbert and yalman onaran. bonnie? vonnie: -- vonnie? trump getting close with vladimir putin, not sitting well with people in his own party. gary kasparov is our guest, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
barton. vonnie: and i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close. let's turn now to u.s. russia relations. president donald trump reiterated his appreciation for the russian federation and hit -- and resident vladimir putin. trump: i say that it's better to get along with russia than not and if they help us in the fight against isis, which is a major fight, and islamic terrorism all over the world, that's a good thing. will i get along with him? i have no idea. >> he's a killer. trump: there are a lot of killers. do you think art country is so innocent? -- our country is so innocent? welcoming gary kasparov, chess champion and chairman of the human rights foundation. also the author of "winter is , why vladimir putin and the enemies of the free world must be stopped." what is the endgame here for
letting your google when it comes to donald trump? does he actually admire donald trump? we don't know. trump is an agent of chaos, which is what led them your proven needs. trump attacks the same targets. strongr putin sees leaders like angela merkel as obstacles for his way to promote his agenda, to spread chaos and create, you know, uncertainty were dictators can thrive. trump keeps attacking the same things. it is quite amazing the trump has criticized almost everyone and everything. democrats, republicans, meryl streep, you name it. he never criticizes p. now just denying the fact that he is a killer. nancy pelosiie: suggesting that he has something
on them. could this be the reason? garry: possible, you know? the fact is that trump is known for being inconsistent on almost every issue. now so consistent in praising vladimir putin? his press conference where he has had about six minutes talking about the so-called dossier? i could suspect that maybe he has something. but at the end of the day what's important is that vladimir putin sees the trump administration as an ally in his plans to destroy that hasnd order guaranteed people security for 70 years. how farhow -- vonnie: does trump take this? so far he hasn't really said anything negative to a certain extent, but he also hasn't made any positive comments. garry: kind of positive
comments. it psychological. putin is a dictator who did does whatever pleases him in russia and, you we have reason to suspect that trump also once this ability to rule the country. if this gets taken further, trump keep saying that russia is going to have -- garry: they said they were not view the relations with iran. the country. that is why i ask how long -- how far they will take this. >> trump keeps talking about a false narrative, fighting isis. compared to the global picture, it's a minor problem in the fact that russia insists that iran will be part of fighting isis, should worryn, it
the u.s. administration. both you and mitt romney have said -- four years ago -- correcting your opinion that -- ia >> it was proven in all four years. >> why is russia so dangerous to the united states? with other potential enemies to the united states, russia has nukes. vonnie: so does north korea. garry: we know that there is a difference. with russia you have to find, you know, the accommodation of the to sort of limit negative. he made confrontation with the free world a core element of his domestic propaganda. for years anti-american propaganda has dominated russian mass media control from the current -- from the kremlin. looking for other ways to
continue this confrontation, he's looking at european elections. france, italy, germany, where he expects to have results that will bring peace and potential allies to power. to leave itave there, but do come back, please, garry kasparov. i human rights activist and author of the book "winter is coming." that is on your shelves. , battle of the charts. this is bloomberg. -- up next, battle of the charts. this is bloomberg. ♪
abigail doolittle. abigail: one of the big questions right now is what is happening with stocks trading at all-time highs. can they stay at these all-time highs? me, it maybehind suggest that stocks are due for a pullback. suggesting that the yield index based on that is a measure of valuation and basically takes the s&p 500 earnings numbers, divided by the index when it is hired for valuations that are relatively healthy, right now we do see that it is starting to drop lower. it is worth noting that that -- that back in 1987 this earnings yield index dropped into those lows into one of the recessions of 1995 and of course, the big financial market crisis in 2008. we are seeing this drop right now, the question is does it suggest a pullback is ahead? it just may, something to keep a eye on for sure.
all right, take that, mark. calm and carry on, vonnie, or not. love this chart. continuing with the theme from bigier with said in the themes taking place in the market. the white line, love it, love it . --rill lynch, boa and gsc at gfci, market risk index, this is global asset classes. any minus number shows less volatility than is normal. the october low, by the way, was the lowest in two years. despite the geopolitical uncertainty when it comes to trump, the european elections, iran, volatility is not -- down and at the same time you got global economic policy uncertainty index at an -- an all-time high. investors are climbing this wall
of worry with no volatility among normal asset classes. paul dobson said political risks abound and what we are seeing is a bit of risk in the gold market . rising, the swiss franc is rising a little bit, but politics right now is making a background noise, it's a worry for another day in the equity currency bond and commodities market. when you look at economic uncertainty, that worry is very, very prevalent. what's it going to take? i love that chart, it's useful and i think we will perhaps wemany times can revisit it in another battle of the charts if i may be so bold, because i'm giving today to abigail. you can't beat that, can you?
actually can't take credit for that. someone else's creativity. vonnie: well, have a gelt, you are the winner today. mark: check out what happens to european equities. stocks finishing lower, that geopolitical worry that we are talking about hitting the stock market today. the 600 down by two thirds of 1% . have a look at the currency market as well. first day of the week, the pound is down against the dollar. this is bloomberg.
david: in new york we are taking over more in the boston and then san francisco in the next hour. here other top stories we are following. the s&p 500 trading for the first time in four days, the dow is little changed. assetshas rise for haven the treasury rising along with gold. brand trump's immigration -- been likely to reach the supreme court eventually. they may decide as early as today whether the ban can be reinstated, weighing in on the authority of the executive branch. he may have signed an executive order to scale back dodd-frank, but officials fear what may be a long and complicated process. we will explain. julie hyman is standing by. bit of a decline, but