tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg February 22, 2017 11:00am-11:59am EST
mark: we will take you from new york to london in the next hour with stories out of washington. he the top stories -- has president trump change the game for global trade? how will the new facilitation agreement impact the global movement? we have -- we will have an general ofdirector the world trade organization. vonnie: our safe havens about to return to their day in the sun question mark the euro is trying to rebound and bonds are rising. and we will hear from the ceo of french oil john -- giant total. taking a look at european
equities, we are under 30 until the end of the session with stocks of falling today after rising to highs we have not seen since december, 2015. declineseing all these for the swedish -- this -- the swiss franc and sovereign bonds are falling. the french two-year is down by four basis points. the two year yield in germany is falling to a record low today, climbing for a fourth day is the bond yield which is at a record points. investors are seeking refuge in
the safest area of the bond curve amid growing concern about the outcome of the french presidential election. the yield spread between french securities and similar data treasuries is now the whitest in 17 years -- the widest in 17 years. it's narrowing the gap. beirut has held a news conference. there were fears if he ran again that he might take votes from the centrist. throws a campaign that surprise every single day it seems. the german steelmaker agreed to sell its brazilian steel plant t underum, joining a line one of its worst investments. it will get an enterprise value of 1.5 billion euros. up by 4.8%.re
this is another charge showing that investors are getting increasingly concerned about the prospect of le pen winning elections. are the most pessimistic on the euro-dollar. gail: it seems for stocks in the u.s. and globally, the dow cannot go a day without putting up a record. we have the dow ever so slightly higher, on pace for another record close. it will be the ninth in a row so we have a bullish streak for stocks. the s&p 500 and the nasdaq are slightly down. ity are off of the lows and interesting to see if we see an entire reversal. interestingly, we have some indications that in the real world, uncertainty abounds.
it's not showing in stock market records but o when we look at have theerg, we global uncertainty policy index, a measure of uncertainty in the real world based on headlines. in white, the merrill lynch global index which is more comprehensive. we see the uncertainty index is now at an all-time record high while the market risk indexes near the lows. at some point you have to think that there will be a re-convergence as it suggests the market risks will climb and meet that uncertainty. it's an interesting divergence between what's happening in the real world and what's happening with investors. investors are focusing the possibility the president trump's policies will be stimulative to the economy and ultimately to the corporate profit outlook. mixed trading
action for stocks today. we are looking at a tad more risk off with gold trading slightly lower. x is higher. assets, thefe haven yen and the 10 year yield are retreating in the direction of a rally. the dollar is dropping against the safe haven yen and the tenure yield dropped by one basis point as bonds rally slightly. vonnie: we just cannot get out of that range, thank you. let's check in on first word news. trumpey: the administration's plans for a round of millions of undocumented immigrants will trigger a flood of lawsuits. the aclu is bowing to challenge a proposal. the u.s. will try to swiftly deport more people without court hearings. it will target migrants charged with crimes or thought to be dangerous. senator elizabeth warren wants
financier anthony scaramouche he investigated over possible ties to russia. has -- she has asked the toasury secretary investigate. he had been named as a senior white house adviser but that was withdrawn after he sold his form to a chinese conglomerate. haveia, a malaysian police about twomore detail women suspected of killing the half-brother of the north korean dictator, kim jong-un. i say the women were trained to coat their hands with toxic chemicals and wiped them on the face of kim jong nam. the north korea embassy has ridiculed the accusations. pen has some eggs that were taken into custody.
-- has some aides that were taken into custody. thanks a lot. at a time in the bennett's of global trade of them called into question, the world trade organization has finalized a globalk deal to increase exports. joining us now from geneva is acevedo.ordha can you tell us about the world trade facilitation agreement? how will it help global trade? >> first of all, i think it's important that it shows we can deliver. the members decided by consensus but nonetheless we came to come up with an agreement like that
which has a huge impact on global economies. to begin with, once fully implemented, the impact of this would be bigger than if we eliminated all tariffs that exist in the world today. more than that, global gdp growth would be increased by half a percentage point. these are great opportunities and more of a positive perspective for the global economy that needs it now. you say it's worth more than if we eliminated all that tariffs in the world. it's quite a distance away from doing that because the opposite seems to be happening. well, today, there is a lot of uncertainty in the air. there is a lot of feelings of being left behind in most economies. consolation to say that
trade is a positive for the economy. what is important is that we get the diagnosis right. out of 10 jobs lost in a economies, around eight are due to new technology, higher productivity, innovation and we all want that. we don't want those things to disappear. we have to be ready for that, ready for these changes which some call the fourth industrial revolution. trade is a minor participant of all that. trade in fact creates opportunities and creates a force for development and growth. mark: given all the pressures, what would you say the prospects are for global trade in 2017? it depends a lot on how the global economy does. slows downal economy even further, it's likely that
trade will also slow down. 1.8%-ject growth between 3.1% this year in trade. par.nk that a still below it's below the average we had before the financial crisis. but it would be an improvement on today's figures. it depends a lot on how we do globally. mark: let's talk about brexit. you are playing an important role in the u.k. exit from the european union. can you and lighten us on what your role is and how those discussions are progressing? there ink the first step w is not ato step.\ it's between the u.k. in the eu, they have to agree on the terms of separation. on the basis of that, then the
eu, which does trade with every other wto member, under the eu terms would then have its own commitment, its own tariffs. that only comes about, that negotiation with wto comes about once the eu and that u.k. split up. it is a bit further down the road. deal doat sort of trade you envision between the u.k. and the eu after this 2-year period of discussions and's? -- ends ? the eu and u.k. would try to get preferential access to the european markets and preserve the margins of preference, the preferential treatment it gets today. how much of that will be preserved, i don't know. that would depend a lot on the
conversations between the two. what is important is that whatever happens there, we have to realize that the u.k. already does trade with the rest of the on wt a terms. that is already than arm and that's what exists today. it deals with china, the u.s., brazil and indonesia, all of that. that will not change. that is very important to bear in mind. what needs to be figure it out mostly is what happens to the trade relations between the u.k. and the eu and between the u.k. and those countries where the eu has preferential arrangements. tradeon the subject of relations, can we talk about trade relations between the u.s. under new president donald trump and the rest of the world? he is withdrawing from the tpp, and wants to renegotiate nafta and likes bilateral rather than
multilateral deals. how is he affecting the goals and trajectory of the world trade organization and the work it does? see hownk we have to all of those initiatives, those notions are translated into trade policy. in trade, the devil is in the details. bilateralout striking deals is not news. every member of the wto tries to do that. in terms they find are beneficial to their country. how that is done is what we need to see. neward the u.s. team, the one, complaining about unfair trade. every single country in the wto complains about unfair trade. what do you do about that is the question. i think the wto has the tools to handle a lot of the things that
have been mentioned that our concerns of so far. i am waiting to see what the new team thinks about all of this. we are still waiting for the confirmation of the u.s.dr which will probably be my main interlocutory on trade issues and when that happens, i think we will have to begin a conversation how the wto can help address problems in a way that is consistent with expectations globally. very quickly, you are running for another four years as director general, what do you hope to achieve in the next four years? i hope to deliver more. i think the wto was in transition. we spent 18 years with no agreements whatsoever. finally in just three years, we had the trade facilitation agreement. we eliminated all export subsidies for agricultural products. we had the expansion of the
information technology agreement which is trade that covers more than $1 trillion. these things are very significant. it shows the organization, if it works properly and if we have the political will to do it, we can do things which are meaningful for the world today. the world needs a bright light at the end of the tunnel. mark: thank you for joining us today. vonnie: great interview, thank you. coming up, election jitters are heading in europe. the chief investment order for credit suisse will join us with analysis. this is bloomberg. ♪
world: from bloomberg headquarters in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. ller european closes just about 13 minutes away. joining us as michael o sullivan, chief investment officer for credit suisse international as we look at the ruminations of france while oisrut -- of france beirut. it's worthy looking back at our french history. >> exactly. what i'm cautioning against is being a little overambitious. you get the same tendencies where people get overconfident and you get highs and then reality strikes. an interesting move today.
one candidate has found he does not really have a chance. he is the centrist candidate. i suspect what he and other people are beginning to look at is that if he makes the second round, he has a decent chance of beating le poen and then he will need to form a government. it could be pitched as a government of national unity from the central left and central right. there is lots of pragmatism at play here. are he haspolls begun to edge back. our investors pricing in political wrist adequately? -- our investors pricing in political risk adequately?
looked at it in a range of european assets from bank stress rates to credit and government bonds. apart from the currency, we don't think en masse investors are pricing the re-emergence of political risk in europe. you are just seeing buying pressure on the german two-year which is interesting because it's one of the few safe haven assets in europe. it plays an interesting role in that there are so many different other trades. if you fear the fed will raise rates, you will be long on the german two-year. there is bond pressure being loaded into the german bond market. the german economy is recovering quite quickly so that tells me the bond is a safe haven asset, not a cyclical asset. -89 basis points on the
two-year right now. the bandwagon after france moves on, german leak -- germany, italy, this risk is not priced in. will it ever be? our investors content to ride this out? the big difference this time around is maybe there are two differences. the ecb is firmly in the background. it's publicly very aggressive in the business cycle in europe -- pmi is quite solid. risk is moreical difficult. we have all of these events and there are stress points in europe, greece is another stress point as well as italy. if you want to play political risk, there are very is ways like peripheral trades, the banks of course and there is the
old periphery, the old countries on the edge of europe like u.k. -- the the pound could run more pricing of political risk in europe which may make brexit look like an active genius. vonnie: how would the federal reserve change that dynamic? >> the asset allocation level, talking to a lot of people overseas, they regarded europe as at -- not so much normal asset allocation discussion but almost as a special situation play. it's the hedge funds and the more active investors. seeink you will quickly risk off trades in europe and the periphery will suffer at the margins. i personally do not think we will see the breakup -- i have been getting questions on that issue in the last couple of weeks. i think people are at fault if
they take too much of an existential view of the euro collapsing. i think we will have a rise of political risk in the first round of the french election. post netherlands, post france, you have a bit of a gap in germany. what happens there of all is good on a united eu? >> i think it's risk on. relative valuation of europe to the u.s. is comparatively attractive and the recovery in europe is the best we have seen in maybe eight or nine years. tradingthe cyclical europe will be back on and people will look at small mid caps. you have a government that is more likely to instigate new reforms in france. mark: thank you very much. markets mask --
mark: live from london and new york, this is the european close on bloomberg markets. we are four minutes away from the close of the wednesday session as we trade. there is little change for the stocks in europe 600 after three days of gains. i will leave you with the currency board. this is bloomberg. ♪
three-day winning run could come to an and. it could be a winning run. yesterday was the highest level since december of 2015 but we have been stuck in a narrow trading range. let's look at the german utility , another $1 billion write-down on sliding power prices. it says it will forgo his dividend on its common shares. earnings for last year will be dropping significantly. in germany plunged nearly 40% the last five years with angela merkel creating this by boosting the supply of solar and wind output. rwe is a big utility in germany. 6/10 of 1%.wn by
look at the mexican peso, we got the announcement yesterday that it was going to spend 20 alien dollars of international funds to shore up the peso and that would not affect the reserves. it dropped below 20 in a staying there. maybe another half a percent move today. they might have liked more action. todayis a stronger ruble in general but today it is 1% weaker but the trading range for is 10 year yield in the u.s. 2.42. in the g-20, russian stocks are not performing so well. neither is mexico right now. arestock and currencies trading on slightly different news. when it comes to the ruble, it's down 1% and the lira is
stronger. everyone has calmed down about turkey and you can see that in the currency channel. if you look at the yields, the andyear -- the yields germany are lower. let's check in on u.s. banks stocks. abigail: not a lot of action for banks does but sinks the index is the s&p bank up a huge move. this, there isreflation hopes that donald trump's policies will be stimulative to the u.s. economy. there was a huge move higher in yields with the 10 year up about helpsis points which banks and should help the lending activities a banks. we have the fed today releasing minutes and investors will be looking for clues as to whether they will be a rate hike in
march. we had the second rate hike back in december which led to part of this rally. we have a great charge that shows the reality of the probability of a rate hike is not high going into march. this is the world interest rate probability going into the december rate hike. around brexit, the odds were small will stop going into the rate hike, 100% so investors were certain. hike,into the march rate we are looking at less than 40%. it will be interesting to see whether the fed gives clues whether they think the economy is healthy enough to deserve some sort of rate hike. the market itself seems to suggest it will be on hold. and we will get the speech from the president on the 28, thank you. let's check in with four --
first word news. comeney: in the u.s. automakers of asked the new head of the epa to withdraw a decision made in the final days of the obama administration. read house gas emission rules were upheld through 2025 and it has to do with fuel efficiency standards. carmakers say the rules are too tough at a time when there is little demand for the most fuel-efficient cars. is army corps of engineers ordered the closing of the protest camp near the dakota access pipeline in north dakota. state officials have set up a travel assistance center to encourage protesters to cooperate. police say they expect some protesters will not leave without being arrested. the protest camp is been around since august. in the middle east, the u.n. envoy for syria says he is not expecting a breakthrough when talks resume. on the ee of the planned talks between the syrian president and the opposition. he says he sees the meetings as
the beginning of a series of negotiations to dig deep into the issues. in asia, central bank of her tok -- will look for ways improve the currency market. this week's meeting is aimed at coming up with a global conduct as part of an effort to restore trust in the world's largest financial market after a rate fixing scandal that led to $10 billion in fines. 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. mark: it's a big week for u.k. bank earnings. had a surprising climb in adjusted pretax profit. announced a 56% increase in deposits. with a look ahead to the the bloombergrs,
u.k. banking report. said was a nice piece that if you look at lloyds around have predictedht there were special dividend payouts and projection for an increase. it has all come to fruition despite brexit. how is it weathering brexit so well? >> the expectations have been confounded. margin,he net interest the difference between bank lending and the cost of lending is projected to maintain at around 2.7% were next or which is good for the bank to say it can maintain its profitability given where the u.k. economy is going which was uncertain heading into article 50 to get the u.k. out of europe. lloyds is saying they are not
seeing any impact on their lending and that are ours are still taking loans and mortgages. maintain be able to that profitability which is why investors are cheering today. rates,espite record low how are they achieving the low interest rate margin. >> they are cutting back on the deposits. they are paying depositors to keep their money with the bank. they are cutting the amount of interest they charge to depositors. since the financial crisis, they have been able to access bond market funding at a cheaper level. they have cut back $200 billion of assets it did not want and got itself into a healthier position. are helping it on that side of the equation. its net interest income from lending. they expect that to grow in the out years may be in the next three years with things turning upside for them. how is the business at
lloyds impacted? weakening of sterling has a limited impact in some respects, 97% of their assets are in the u.k.. are inre assets that this market and is not too much they can do about it. i have a commercial bank at lloyds were some of their larger clients are buying more rate hedging products. with foreign exchange products in europe with the divergence between the pound and the euro following rex it. they are generally not doing too badly given the concerns we have had in this market. barclays.t's move to they had a rotten time of it. is there any silver lining? >> there could potentially be. we saw some of the u.s. banks
performing strongly in fixed income currencies with trading in the fourth quarter continued from the third quarter which was very good. volatility andte steepening of the yield curve is potentially a good thing for investment banks. whether that translates into europe it's still not entirely clear but barclays is one of the champions of the region. we should see more tomorrow and that's were the investor will be looking. the chief executive at barclays has staked his reputation on keeping that investment bank at barclays. urging them to reconsider the amount of investment he has ported to bed unit. mark: metro bank is announcing a 56% rate of increase in deposits. is it becoming a small player? it's a small but player compared to the other banks we were just talking about. they have a small balance sheet by comparison but they are growing.
the 56% increase shows they are easily gathering momentum in getting new consumers and getting their money into deposits and growing in commercial lending in the u.k. they still have a ways to go. a lot of investors have hedge funds. we have the real estate ilya mares so they will be hoping this can be a real challenger in the u.k. market. for a long time, there have only been for banks controlling about 80% of the u.k. consumer wallet. see you andto thanks for joining us. a big day tomorrow with barclays. vonnie: coming up, the chairman and ceo of tote tell -- total tells us what may lead to a global catastrophe. interview is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: live from london and new york, this is the european close. france is two months away from its presidential elections. we sat down with patrick pouyanne, the chief executive of total. he was asked if he would support far right candidate marine le pe n. winners is one of the in the global economy so i'm not in favor [indiscernible] the trend to have countries to be insiderld
the borders would lead to catastrophes. i cannot be in favor of it. i think it's important in countries like france and germany and the u.k. we have a certain responsibility to the emerging world. thinkerging world do not of globalization. selfish. very tradeis in favor of open and fair trade. naturally, >> so that would rule out mad th le pen? >> anything is possible. >> surely you cannot afford her? we are not in favor of anybody and do not get involved in politics. as a company, i'm in favor of a free world. is a powerfulro
currency but we need to continue in that story. i also have to recognize that but people today will vote there is a question mark for global leaders. i think it's back to what is a commitment. total was born in france. we are a global company and where people around the world but less people in france but i think we have a special responsibility and we need to take, to give an answer to that. as a french company -- theresa may is relevant to what you just said. she said if you are a global citizen, you are a citizen of nowhere.
gettinghink people are angry with all -- with multinationals? globalization, i am french in france and i am german and -- i have have to the a nationality. i'm a public/private company for sure but i have a nationality when a go to africa or the middle east. i should recognize that. i have a certain responsibility for france. total is a global company but it's because i have been able to old -- to build on the french base. that was a discussion of the state of oil and whether opec will extend its production cuts passed may.
past may. >> it's not only us but it's also russia. agreementa necessary in november. russia for the first time in history accepted to make some cuts. the argument to change its policy. it's not only opec but it's also non-opec. if they want to have an impact , it will be to have extended beyond may. it seems to be good news for the industry. >> what about shale? the u.s. in the -- the u.s.
industry is very dynamic. you see money coming back into the industry. >> you think it's quite extensive? invest towant to acquire a position, if i want to acquire a position, i need to get to $80 per barrel. the step to invest is -- is expensive. we are the winners for the time but $40,000 per acre is expensive. >> you increase your dividends and beat analyst estimates and you have described how it looks like opec will continue beyond may. do you think bad times for the oil industry are over? >> i'm not fully convinced. we are in a volatile market. trend and iive
think the market is willing to go up but you have negative impacts potentially. oil will increase and libya will come back into the market. will they become pliant? -- will they become compliant? commodity where my job is to make sure we are profitable no matter what the price is. the answers being disciplined. mark: that was part of our exclusive interview. botc next, battle of the church -- of the charts. we will judge, this is bloomberg. ♪
battle of the charts. you can access these charts on the bloomberg. mark barton and i will judge today. sophia is kicking things off. >> it's a special week in the u.k. because it's such a busy week for u.k. bank earnings. in focus tomorrow we have barclays. it's the only significant backed in the u.k.'s earnings tomorrow are 7:00 a.m. the u.s. investment banks had a terrific quarter when it came's to trading. here is why it matters for barclays. it had 26% revenue from the u.s. in 2015. trading is expected to rise 40%. this is barclays fairing
relative to other u.k. banks. the blue line is showing 10 year treasury volatility. up andlatility picks when markets are turbulent and when donald trump was elected and everyone was freaking out, barclays was doing better than the rest of europe. it's because it has a significant portion of its revenue from fixed income wants itnd the ceo that way. mark: everyone's freaking out, are you, oliver? vonnie: that was a throw down. oliver: this is an awesome chart looking at the extremely exciting dow going up together. how much has the dow been rallying? if i win, the credit goes to others.
this is an interesting way to look at where things would be of every stock in the dow are trading at a 52 week high. that has not happened. the past two years, it never got close and not only are we now at the index high but we are at the point where some would argue it's kind of perfection. this is the narrowest gap ever for where we are actually trading. that's pretty incredible. vonnie: i have to say i love this. you would get a sympathy vote but then you mentioned it's not even your chart. the quality vote goes to the chart and the person who gave the data. 61-75 is my vote. i'm going for oliver. bit geographical in my bias but i'm going with sofia. barclays has a big day tomorrow.
>> it is noon in new york, 5:00 p.m. in london, at 1:00 in london -- in hong kong. this is "bloomberg markets." ♪ vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, we will take you from washington dc to san francisco in the next hour. here are the top stories around the world that we are following. in markets, stocks are taking a .reather ahead of fed minutes
u.s. major averages high. treasuries gaining. another question on investors mines. what will the fed do with a $2.5 trillion federal -- treasuries. there is little to fear and we explain why. i was speaking to pain capital founding partner and. his views on trip -- president trump's tax reform plan and much more. we are halfway into the trading day