tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg February 28, 2017 1:00am-2:31am EST
>> investors await donald trump's budget when he plans to address a joint session of congress. the president is expected to lay out his 10 for a 10% boost to defense spending. >> the bond market awakens. marge comes back to life as odds 50%,rate hike jumped to a 10 point increase from friday. >> south korea's special prosecutor plans to indict jay y. lee. >> building bridges, not wars. in an interview with francine ltcqua, the decision to ha 10,000 refugees and shares his views on the fragile nature of the world today. >> this is a time when i think
we as private citizens and as business people need to build bridges, not walls. >> a very well welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe," our flagship morning show. i'm anna edwards. manus: and i am manus cranny. charlie: they could seek acquisitions. this is according to the ceo of the company. interestngs before jumped 11%. the company sees profits rising again in 2017. ebit number comes in at $1.354 billion, which is just above the estimate of $1.347 billion. manus, lets get back to the macro stories this morning. we have seen robert kaplan pushing back against the ideas that the market has a veto on a rate increase.
that has captured the market's imagination. manus: 24 hours ago, that is when we saw the bond traders. since friday, the probability of a rate hike in the united states has gone from 40% to 50%. that along with the swaps market 10 year, has also come from the lowest point this year, by 5.5 basis points. the the probability has had 50%. kaplan says he wants to move sooner, rather than later. be aware of what is going on in the market, but i don't want to overreact in terms of what the market's perception is. anna: and then we are going to get to donald trump in what he has to say. we will look at what janet yellen said at the end of this week and what donald trump said today in congress, a 10% boost to defense spending expected, but commented by other cuts. what else will he say on
infrastructure, because that plays into that rate story as well. we will show you where regard in the asian session. the msci was being lifted this morning. it was in positive territory and many asian markets are heading for two months of gains. in the last 30 minutes or so, we have seen negative territory. manus: if you look at the dollar, just a touch soccer. that defense spending number that has been touted around $54 billion, have you pay for that? that is what the market wants to know. for some reason, we have the swiss market. that is the anomaly. the futures are on a blinding winning streak, the longest, 12 sessions, the longest in 30 years. nymex crude, a slightly better bit there. non-ohmic members -- non-opec members are lagging. this is the latest news coming from the secretary-general. this is all done to inventories in the united states of america. we expected that to be 3 million
barrels, and that is against everything, all the work the opec members are doing. wti. $54 on the brent let's get to the bloomberg first word news. >> thank you. president trump, as you mentioned, will propose raising defense spending by 10% in his first budget. thenistration officials say $54 million boost would be offset by cuts to most federal agencies, with the epa hit the hardest. after appearing on "charlie rose," larry summers says he is taking the promise with a pinch of salt. >> i think it is very unlikely. there is a long history of hugedents proposing the cuts in the discretionary budget, and then not being able to achieve them. >> meanwhile, china's top diplomat met the u.s. president
must night. it was the highest level contact between the world's two biggest economies since the election and stories over north korea's nuclear program. billionaire has been confirmed as the was commerce secretary by the senate. a clear the way for one of donald trump's key trade officials to take office. later it will be officially announced later today as the u.s. president prepares for his first address to congress. and you can watch president trump's speech to congress live here on bloomberg television. our special coverage begins at 2:00 a.m. u.k. time. bloomberg users can find all the news on tliv . south korea's special prosecutor plans to indict jay y. lee, along with four other executives. samsung denies making donations to win government support.
you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries around the world. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you very much. let's get into these markets now. juliette saly is standing by. we just saw the msci falter a little bit. where as the americans are still on a roller coaster rally. how is asia holding up ahead of the trump speech this evening? juliette: he pretty much hit it on the head. we do see caution ahead of that speech from president trump, where we were seeing more upside following that record rally on wall street on monday's session. the nikkei is flat only close. it has been tracking quite significantly higher around 30 minutes ago. australia closed lower. the kospi not really blinking an eyelid on the back of that samsung is.
if we look at what we have been tracking in the asian session, samsung has been one. it is up by 1%, very much factored in already that it was expected that jay y. lee would be indicted. takata, a little bit weaker. this is as it admitted his guilt in a u.s. court. , this after the dubai-based group bought a 30% stake. i want to show you this g-chart. fabuloushowing what a february it has seen for shares listed in hong kong. we will have a look at that a little bit later. up 5.4%.ows shares word forwill take your it. thank you, juliette saly from hong kong. the starbucks ceo howard schultz says now is the time to build bridges, not walls. when president trump versailles the immigration order, howard schultz says the company plans
to hire 10,000 refugees. anna: francine lacqua spoke with the starbucks ceo in milan, who maintained optimistic point of view, despite concerns. >> people mill that starbucks has created a business plan over the years that was based on the social impact. the first company to give equity in the form of stock options to every employee. in china, we discovered housing allowance to our employees and partners who are traveling long distances. not every decision in my view is economics. i think the price of admission is financial performance, but a do not wake up -- but i do not wake up every day saying, how will we wake more money? i say, how can we really create, in each sense of loyalty with our people and customers based on our values, our value principles? listen, we are living in a world today that is very fragile.
there's a lot of uncertainty. i thinkw we have an obligation and irresponsibility as a company to add value to humanity. way,could say it in my this is a time when i think we as private citizens and as business people need to build bridges, not walls. francine: is that why you announce the hiring of 10,000 refugees? >> that decision was not a political decision. it was a decision based on the values of our company and our guiding principles. i believe very strongly that your station in life, your sexual preference, the color of your skin, the country you were born in should not define the opportunities that we have as people. if starbucks as a company can create an environment where the
entrepreneurial spirit and the opportunities everyone receives is based on merit, then i think we are doing a pretty good job. that is what i want to do as a company. francine: do you see the fabric of america changing? >> i am still very optimistic about america. we clearly are going through a change politically. but i am the quintessential optimist about the promise of america and the american dream, and i want to do everything i can to advance that and be a symbol for american entrepreneurialship. francine: do you think a lot of ceo's will follow suit? >> i think more people are recognizing that we have a collective responsibility as businesspeople, not just to make money, but to add value back to our society. anna: the ceo of starbucks there, talking to francine lacqua. let's talk about what has been happening with the fed. we also heard from dallas fed president robert kaplan.
about we are forecasting 2.25% growth. it is sufficient to continue causing improvement in employment, reduce labor, and help inflation start inching up to 2%. manus: he also said the policymakers should raise interest rates sooner rather than later without paying attention to the market expectations, which he says can change rapidly. that is brought up by the chart we showed you at the top of the show. the probability is that the fed -- the probability of a hike hits 50%, according to the wrk function. anna: tuning is now, the senior adviser at credit suisse. great to see you. robert kaplan says, we don't need to pay too much attention to market expectations.
market expectations adjust to reflect the 50% probability of a rate hike in march. this is quite fast movement in rate expectations in bond markets. >> i think that is normal. don't be surprised by rapid, short-term swings in market expectations with what the fed might or might not do. what we have seen in the last 24 hours final think is surprising at all and they would not be surprised if in the next week or so we see further swings. there is a trend towards a higher probability expected by the market of a fed rate increase in march. i stick to miky view that we will have a minimum of two rate increases this year in my central case would probably be three rate increases. frankly, i think that move by the fed is inevitable because this year i think we will have growth close to 2.5%. if anything, i think mr. kaplan's forecast to 2.25% is a
little too conservative. look at the fed objectives. low on unemployment iand unemployment is well below 5%. i don't see any reversal in the employment data. plus, inflation, headline and core inflation are converging at around 2.5%. manus: those are the coalescing factors and the question we have to ask ourselves is, what is the capacity of the stock and bond in the fx market to absorb three hikes? the market is presuming the growth and inflation trend. >> correct. manus: nearly $3 trillion has been added. do the stock markets easily absorb three rate hikes? >> i think short-term. actually, when observation we have at the moment is that obviously, we have a very low fix. and therefore, insurance to protect your downside risk is actually reasonably cheap at the
moment. now, should you be protecting your downside risk and be concerned about the limited extent of upside? i think the answer is absolutely yes. factors of concern are the fed raising rates. i think you have to watch the fed balance sheets very carefully, indeed. although the balance sheet is very slowly edging down, if they start to reduce their elegy, that would send a negative signal to markets and there forome scope disappointment after what we get from president trump today. anna: how does what he said today play into this because that forecast you have for three hikes for the fed, what is that based on in terms of donald trump and his fiscal spending, and the things he can get through congress? >> looking at this from a positive point of view, i think the spending measures will be less critical. if he does increase infrastructure spending, which
has been reflected in the improvement jump in valuations in the material sector, for example. we all know that making a statement on increasing infrastructure spending, the actual expenditure only happens over the next three to seven years. infrastructure is very much a long-term venture. what is more critical in the short-term is what he does on corporation tax, if there is a plan for what is called a border adjustment tax, which i think will be very difficult to implement. and also for the u.s. dollar, to what extent there will be a tax holiday on corporate liquidity being repatriated to the states. i think the key in all of this is not defense spending. infrastructure spending for the longer term, yes. i think the key factor is what happens to corporation tax. manus: all of that will add into whether we have a resurgent inflation. the bond market is telling us something different, 6325. the market is actually cutting back the positions on the bond
market. i am just curious to know from everything that you have just said, do you see yields stabilizing at around this level, or where are we? is it 1.43% or 3%? >> i think you have to ask the question. despite the strong data coming out of the states in january and february, why have 10 year u.s. treasury yields traded down from where we were in january, close to 2.5% to close to 2.3%. the first factor is what you show in that graph, which is some closing off of offshore positions. i think interestingly, coming back to the point i was making about the vix, is investors i think i've actually been saying, we need some insurance. part of the insurance is purchasing 10 year. u.s. treasury's you also see that insurance through the jump in the gold price, the japanese investors a few weeks ago, the recovery in the yen close to 112.
this also includes the continuing strength of the swiss franc. where do we go from here on bond yields? obviously, the fed raising rates would be negative for bond yields. in addition, you might see large overseas holders of u.s. treasuries, some of the big central banks owners have spoken about treasuries, continue to reduce their positions. the chinese reserves remain under downward pressure. if we do get a correction over the next two to three months in equity markets, and you have to be concerned about risk and equity markets, that prevents a major settlement. bob parker stays with us, senior advisor at what it sees. manus: at 1:30 p.m. we will get u.s. gdp. the health of the united states, three and a half hours later. apple starts its annual meeting. anna: and 2:00 a.m. tomorrow
of the world's biggest mining company at the mining conference in florida. >> we are very nervous about the possibility that, instead of that good leadership, we could about leadership from the united states on trade. free trade is the lifeblood of the economy. and makes products cheaper for consumers and consumers buy more and as a result of that, we see broader economic growth. long-term economic growth now for the world is probably around 3%. if we are continuing on the journey to lift people out of poverty, we have to get to 4% and that will not happen out of the protectionist regime in the united states. some good, but some is pretty bad. manus: wilbur ross was confirmed as the u.s. commerce secretary by the senate. with him officially in the job, he can start working on the deals, including leveling the playing field of china, which he called "the most protectionist major nation."
anna: still with us, bob parker, senior advisor at credit suisse. a number of global trade themes are coming into the mix. yesterday, wilbur ross said, i am not anti-trade, i am pro sensible trade. where does the conversation between china and the united states go for you? bob: the first point is the attack by the americans on the chinese management of the chinese renminbi renminbi. it is interesting that the renminbi has recently been very stable. anna: we can just show this chart, while you are making that point, the stability of the currency. this is the volatility coming down, the largest drop since 2005. bob: the pboc has got a good stranglehold on the chinese renminbi at the moment. i would expect over the coming months, although there is a case for capital outflows for the renminbi to weaken, given the sense of the political
sensitivity of the renminbi, i would a simple the pboc will continue to really strangle it around current levels. they don't want a fall in the renminbi, which would immediately result in an american reaction. that is point number one. point number two is look at what is happening to the structure of the chinese economy, which there is much more of the focus on domestic demand, what i call the new chinese economy, whether it be tech, the consumer sector, or health care. there is much less of a focus on the export sector. the chinese economic model of growth through exports frankly, died about three or four years ago. manus: the one thing we are looking at is this weekend they will get together and set the new growth targets. this is the forecast. they are going to drop. you actually say they have more of a handle on the shadow banking situation. therefore, that growth number, which we think will be 6.5% is a
little bit more assured. abilityre is a high that this year they will achieve 6.3% to 6.5%. if you look at the forecast, you will see more than 6.5%. i think that is optimistic, but the key question we have been debating is, it will there be a hard landing in china? the problems we have gotten the old chinese economy, heavy engineering and state enterprises, is there could be a hard landing because of the credit bubble associated with shadow banking. my answer has consistently been, no, there won't be. any reason to change that and i think the chinese ministry of finance and the pboc are on top of deflating slowly that credit bubble and shadow banking. anna: that is interesting because others still worry about it. what gives you the confidence that they can manage? bob: the first point is that nonperforming loans in the
official banking system, the non-shadow banking system, i think i will under control. i think capitalization in the banking system, likewise, is very satisfactory. i don't see any problems there. in the shadow banking system, yes, default rates associated with lending, to what i call the old chinese economy are a problem, but as we have seen in the past, those loans are restructured. one of the tricks, and frankly dealing with the shadow banking system is if you have got an asset, a six month or one your asset, you discover it is a 30 year asset. the chinese are absolute masters -- and i did not like the phrase, but in kicking tyhhe can down the road. manus: the europeans might have taken the road map from them. bob parker stays with the show. anna: bank earnings just crossed and later in the show, we will speak to the ceo. that is at 7:00 a.m., london time. manus: up next, we will be
is before 9:00 and it is a getomenal tax cut we might some additional detail on. prepping a list of actions to talktry must unlock with athens and they had the drafts of the proposed agreements and they hard to swallow credit demands. this merger is valued at $18 billion. one of the hurdles is how much
than $1 million. they said that this was not doing favors in that this was to support other results in the samsung was looking for the government support for strategic moves they need to merger thating a was important to the top of the company. >> thank you for joining us. berlin. go to >> hello. good morning. the who's who of private
andou mentioned the eu there is brexit. preparing? >> what are the real implications? they are really different and it depends on the nature of your business. if you are a it private equity ofager, you get a little bit background noise and, you get most of the capital being is potentiallyt very negative for the business and it will be everything in between. off and we have
is year p.m. private equity that comes from outside europe or other parts of the world. in p eating those flows and making it more will be helpful for the industry and i think we for what the implications could be and there advantage,petitive if you think through it. it puts you in a stronger position. >> how much do your members worry about or keep an eye on what happens in the united states? we will hear from president will this evening and we see this come into play when it
comes in with carried interest and how does that play through? we will follow this and a large chunk of the capital comes from investment. right now, we have the treasury bem which is thought to taking months with historical precedent and we have the executive order and that is largely process driven. i think that everybody is watching and waiting.
they will invest around the world. lotinally, we will hear a about the flow into the industry and if it is sustainable. are we going to see hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into the industry? fundraising is relatively stable and has been for the last two or three years. it is pretty much matched every year and it is a good match between the money that is coming it is for the fundraising and the investing.
the equity backed companies here in europe really appreciate the and the the investments increased recognition that can be made. >> great. you have a busy couple of days ahead of you. thank you for joining us. i will throw it back to you. >> thank you for joining us. the carlylek to group ceo. >> business priorities as the urges asf commerce they plan to trigger article 50. >> the company reported a drop
to cover 100 airbags. provider intel search. the deal relies on setting aside money for purchases at a price that is higher than last week. they immediately returned request for comment. the equity research operation anddismissed employees revenuel resources face pressures to make investors pay separate from the trading commission's. that is your business flash.
>> thank you very much. beuring the rights should high in priority. the chamber of commerce is pushing to make sure there is no sudden disruption when the negotiation ends. dcc fore joined by the programming this morning. processook at this nowlding, what concerns you when the divorce proceedings happen. base, i thinkthe that article 50 will be march.ed in
if you listen to the european union, they want to negotiate bill and theexits british stance is that they want to negotiate simultaneously on an exit and free trade deals. stance and,ifferent out, this is sorted is going to drag on. we could end up with gridlock. whether it is 60 billion is anybody's guest -- guess. >> john is talking on behalf of
of the remain campaign and says that negotiation has voters direction and theresa may will not fundamentally be able to deliver on the promises. it is reasonable. >> absolutely. it is very difficult and he would be the first to admit that it is. gore are terms of where we and you have to accept negotiations about what the youtiations will be and whatto ask the question of there is an
andemely high probability we could be having this conversation in four or five years. >> if there was a role for the wider public at the end of this process. the politicalugh rhetoric and look at the basic economics and you have to policy withe sterling undervalued and we get , which is easy. surprising that exports look good.
>> that is coming through and you are painting a supporter the below zero for 10 months in a row. not feelbecause we did anything last year and there is more of a potential risk under pressure. iswhat is behind the graph and the inflation is rising you should not be surprised by with little of word pressure and there is a somequential squeeze with consumer slow down.
infrastructure spending that remains high and sterling is undervalued. coming out of europe and remaining very strong. >> how alarmed or not alarmed are you? the european stock volatility future and the equivalent with the referendum. coming in advance of the key moments. discussed, you have to the riskive about
like shend it looks will get the first round. i am concerned about the expectations for this second round and i think we will have therealian election and will be a reasonable chance that mr. scholz will replace mrs. merkel and we have the freedom party probably ending up as the largest party in government. >> thank you for being with us this morning. >> do not miss our conversation. you will get more on the latest report from the brexit talks.
>> this is a time where we, as citizens and business people need to build bridges and not walls. >> welcome. flagship morning show. a warm welcome to you. >> we will have some great conversations over the next half it will tell us where this opens up. by 2/10 of 1% at all the markets are waiting from what we hear from donald trump. the markets are under assuming
we have had some market news. we saw the consumer confidence that before into brexit really kicked in on the consumer. is nice and that the market is looking for 3.6 one billion and they made a very good start to 2017. get out there and buy a home. >> just a moment ago, we got the breaking news. we will be joint shortly.
is ahead of the estimates and they have the revenue that looks to be probably in line with this update here. ceoill be speaking to our shortly and we need to talk nightwhat was said last and this idea that there was a market adjustment and they came around the idea on the rate hike in march. strong pointat the was not being tethered to the bond market with the fed and and itas hardly a drop
is a little more strength with the yen this morning as we go towards the speech. >> this ways a little bit on the equities. later.trump will speak and itseeing increases is interesting with the gains 4%e in and they are only with a percent or 9% and they are not quite the same. again. price is back up >> let's get our first alert news. president will raise spending by 10% in his first
budget and they say the deal will be offset by costs with the epa being hit the hardest. says he takes this promise with a pinch of salt. >> there is a history of in thed cuts discretionary budget and not being able to achieve it. meanwhile, it is the highest level contacts since the economies since the election with concerns over tensions with trades. concerned as he
toslated to be sworn in prepare to address congress. president trump on television here. bloomberg users can follow all of the news. prosecutor will be indicted on formal charges. the strategy offers includes long-term planning and coordination and dealt with the government. musk's plans to send 2017 -- to the moon in
2018. they will undergo a health and fitness tests and train later this year. isbal news 24 hours a day powered by journalists and analysts and you can find more stories. you see the equity markets and the nikkei is only slightly higher. be is pretty well supported and it is interesting to note that it did not blink and we have been tracking this session and plans are coming through with takata down japan after the
question on whether it will be stable at best. we are joined now from the anna. thank you for joining us now. most isries me the where the weakness is and what is under pressure. i think 2016 has shown a very significant trend with the race history results in our and slightly lower revenues and slightly higher costs. in the environment that we in, having better growth than the other regions, i think
what you have to do is combine the risk with the net interest of what we are running with and, if the risk profile is so strong , the risk cuts have come down margins were where the toe cuts have dropped down 15. riskng a relatively low means the income drops a bit. previously, we heard from you give any guidance
today? opposed to the general dividendand there is a that was double what we paid was year and i think it appropriate, given the capital andation is very strong with is an equity of 12% one of the few banks earning more than the cost of capital and i think that it is entirely appropriate that we pay that dividend. >> we have seen you talk about the risk of that portfolio.
have experience , but thereg bad debt and other in italy places. what advice would you give to those who are selling bad loans? >> it is not up to me to give .dvice to other banks >> what do they need to do to actually deliver to shareholders. -- to shareholders? canou have to give what you and the situation can stabilize with efficiency gains and it can
we are gaining hundreds of thousands with that and i do not have a desire to buy brick and mortar anymore. newsu have read the releases. >> tonight is the state of the union and many are expecting a rollback or a repeal of regulation. to meetxpect your up a sporting chance? >> i wish that they would in my hope is rather limited. i do not think there -- i'm not
you look at the economy and the level of the economy and we see the outgrowth on the investment or the industrial side. see an alternative to silver as prices go higher? do you see the alternative? industrial side and this is a new publication. and wes not avoidable look for the fiscal plan. peers say?r industry how worried are you about the border taxes and what are the
risks to your business from the industry should? exploring mineral thential and, regarding mexico relationship, it is quite more than 20is crossings on the north side of this crossing. be quite that it will difficult to disintegrate this. >> are you prepared for the markets, ifhe new it gets hard? these operations are
the global economy. inwhat price do you factor to your model and what kind of prices do you assume you will achieve in the markets? focusing on what we can control. there is cost control and cost reduction and we have gone through cycles. >> do you think that prices will be higher? bullish.autiously >> thank you for joining us this morning. >> that is it for daybreak. the market open is next. i will get my words right. there will be a conversation and they will get into the
♪ >> versus european open. it may very so shortly i am guy johnson. matt miller is in berlin. average winning theak is 12 sessions spread octave of march jumped to over 50%. will the president look up to expectations? he will outline his budget plan to congress and he will go big on defense spending.