tv Bloomberg Markets Trump First 100 Days Bloomberg March 6, 2017 1:00pm-2:01pm EST
100 days in office. here are the top stories. trump revisec his travel been. -- ban. the latest on that and how it can affect court cases on the previous order. broader immigration reform with j.p. morgan's chief u.s. economist michael rowley. feroli. we will hear from the chairman of how services committee barney frank. his thoughts on the travel ban and trade policy. president trump has signed a new travel ban.
it removes iraq from an original list of seven countries whose citizens cannot travel to the u.s. in the next 90 days. it also alters the treatment of syrian refugees who had originally been banned indefinitely. those with existing visas and green cards will be allowed in the u.s. it will take place on march 16. kevin is at the white house. give us a sense of what is different. several delays leading up to this. on the list not be of the six predominantly muslim middle eastern countries who are going to be having a temporary travel immigration ban to the u.s. that was taken off the list after receiving praise from senior administration officials and cabinet secretary officials saying they have complied in the sense that with this new administration will be a delay of some sort.
this will not go into effect several weeks from now -- until several weeks from now. they have time to put forth the message that they are trying to correct some of the mistakes they made from the first round of executive action that were shut down by the ninth district court. david: you have been following this since its inception. what is different from a legal perspective? however the white house address some of those? paul: they have tried to narrow morean so it would seem reasonable so it would pass scrutiny under analysis such as due process, but the question i think in the courts will still be, what is the significance of president trump's earlier statements when he was a candidate in which he is presently set he sought to impose a ban on muslims? what is the significance of the interview that his friend and colleague rudy giulni gave where he said trump's purpose
was to find a way to accomplish a muslim ban without saying so? if the courts give credence to tose and significant tce those statements, this could be just as horrible as the previous one. david: was that from what is going on? paul: as a practical matter, the courts will set aside the first ban and look at challenges to the second ban, but they will automatically look at this revised ban. someone will have to come into court saying i am affected, hurt by this, and i want to see it struck down for x, y, and z reasons. david: remind us how we got here today and how this is different than the previous ones. the last few had a real flourish. the president coming out speaking, then signing the order. kevin: john kelly telling reporters at a press conference that there should be "no
surprises." that clearly a message coming from this white house that they are looking to correct the mistakes of the roll out from the first round of executive orders. also notable that president trump himself was not present at this rollout, this by having signed the order earlier today -- despite having signed the order earlier today. this administration worked with the republican side earlier, speaking with congressional leadership, trying to educate them on just the specifics. wever, all of that said, i spoke with one senior democratic congressional aide that said this is more than a "muslim ban 2.0." david: we see a photograph that was released by the white house of the president signing the order. uproar and lot of anger at the way this was done previously. over the weekend, the president
met with his homeless if you're a secretary and with his attorney general in mar-a-lago, florida. describe how that different. , they over the weekend were trying to have the meeting at mar-a-lago, but also, the outreach to congress. i cannot stress that enough how unusual it is that the first-round of executive orders would come being drafted by the chief trump strategist steve bannon as well as stephen miller without the communication or closed communication with congressional leadership. that poses a political risk, not only on the immigration front, but also in terms of the political capital that the administration is using as it looks to crack its legislative agenda in the earlier months to get through other policy areas. if you take a step back, this is an incredibly divisive issue, not only from an immigration doespoint but also with doe wht
in terms of costing the aggressors from passing other reforms, financial as well as arts of health care. david: let's talk about the legal justification. the president asked the case for being able to do this. what is the administration saying about his view when it comes to immigration? paul: there is not much dispute anywhere that the president has a tremendous amount of authority to shape the country's immigration policies. the question is whether that authority is endless or whether it is contained by the u.s. constitution. what we saw last time around, the course emphatically said it is contained by the u.s. constitution. we did not get a final ruling on the merits. we got signals from the courts that the white house had overstepped. the question is whether you will see the same signals this time. david: are the indications still that this will end up at the supreme court? what is the timetable for it reaching the high court?
paul: it is very hard to say, but if a new case unfolded the way the case in washington unfolded last time with a temporary restraining order and the administration challenging that temporary restraining order, it is conceivable at that point you can see the supreme court ruling on the temporary restraining order or the efforts by the administration to lift it quickly. in terms of a ruling on the merits, that would take months and may not even happen in the current term. david: my last question about the rollout of this new executive order that takes place on the 16th of march, not immediately like the last one. was the immunization saying about preparation for the implementation -- what is the administration saying about the preparation for the implementation? paul: preparations will be put together with the senate judiciary committee where the deputy attorney general is going face his confirmation hearing. he will be the person in charge or one of the people in charge
of recommending the order. a lot more fireworks on capitol hill expected tomorrow. david: thank you so much. thanks for joining me. let's get a check of where the market stand this afternoon. abigail is here with the latest. abigail: we are looking at a bit of a pullback. we have the dow and s&p 500 and the nasdaq trading low. investors are trying to turn these declines around. not so successfully so far. this follows volatility last week where we had the best rally of the year followed by the worst pullback in more than a month. today, the bulls and the bears are digging out. the bears are winning. not confirming this decline in stock. we have the 10 year yield up represented in red. bonds are trading lower.
we have the yen trading lower against the dollar. it had been down against the dollar moments ago. right now, being the dollar. we have gold trading lower. silver around red and green, too. the declines in stocks are not confirmed suggestions there is a kind of fear out there. we look at a great chart. barometer.oom-bust it is the raw material indexed by the jobless claims. basically, as the numerator increases, the denominator decreases. we are looking at a blue. we are in a full boom cycle. booms are followed by busts. right now, this suggests there is economic help out there. speaking of one miniboom coming
to a bit of an end, snap is trading down about 8% on the day. it was of course the biggest tech ipo of the year. lots of glamour and hype around it. five of the seven analysts recommend selling shares. $17 suggests the shares could drop by more than 30%. tend tous ipo's 10 perform less well. david: thank you. coming up at 1:30 p.m. east frankime barney discusses immigration, trade, and tactile or with me. i believe the impact on the economy with michael firoli from j.p. morgan. this is bloomberg. ♪
david: this is "bloomberg trump's first 100 days." mark crumpton is standing by in our newsroom. mark: thank you. president trump today signed a revised order on travel. it will restrict travel from six phenomenally with some countries with one notable exception. secretary of state rex tillerson joined by secretary kelly and attorney general sessions discussed the revisions this morning. >> these early efforts were concentrated on iraq.
iraq is an important ally in the fight to defeat isis. with their brave soldiers fighting in" nation with america's men and women in uniform. mark: secretary tillerson says refugees whenw they determine they do not pose a risk to the security or welfare of the u.s. the u.s. supreme court has canceled a scheduled showdown over the rights of transgender students in public schools. justices sent the case back down to a lower court. a federal appeals court in virginia was that it was probably violating law. the ruling was based on an obama administration policy that the trump administration revoked last month. meanwhile, a new poll shows the independent presidential candidate emmanuel with win in the final round of
french voting. he is selling himself as th candidate most likely to bring change. bloomberg spoke with his economic advisor. acron's political identity is really performance reform and change. you have much more political strength and much more political capital that you can invest in significant reforms. if you do not change a country in a day, you do not change it in five years, but you can do a lot in five years. ron has proposed overhauling the pension system and labor regulations. china's former congressman says he worries a trade war with the u.s. is coming. he told reporters in beijing that a fight over trade would hurt both countries and would leave a trail of destruction across asia. president trump has accused china of stealing american jobs and intellectual property.
global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. david: thanks so much. in his speech last week, president trump raised the specter of broader immigration coming out of washington. let's explore the economic impact with michael. he has been looking at the issue. let's start with the difficulty of doing this first of all. there has not been a lot of clarity coming out of the white house or washington for that matter. how do you begin to figure it out? michael: we do not really know what policies will occur. let's first start with economic growth. generally, economists think about trying growth as the sum of growth and labor supply and productivity. in terms of labor supply, that is a demographic. the census bureau thinks over the next 10 years, the average annual growth in the work population will be 0.4%.
just to take one extreme example, if we just cut immigration down to zero, that should reduce trend growth by 2/10 of a percentage point. that is one way to think about it. there has been some talk of forcible deportations of the entire undocumented workforce, which is about 8 million people we think. doing that, we probably reduce the level of gdp by at least 1.5%, presuming that happens in a slow and orderly manner, which is a tough assumption. how we parameterize thinking about given a lot of uncertainty here how to think about what this would affect at least grow. , theing about unemployment labor market, labor market tightness, this would affect some industries more than others .
the fruit and vegetable industry in california has a lot of migrant work. you can see pockets of labor market tightening up. we think these things will affect both aggregate supply and aggregate demand. david: let me ask you about weight growth. i will read your note to you. it is unlikely to have an unlikely impact on the unemployment rate and unlikely to have an impact on weight growth. we have listened to the president speak in that speech last week and elsewhere. he is making economic growth or forgration reform -- immigration reform. michael: the first thing we heard him talk about is moving to a more merit-based or skills-based system of immigration, which is similar to what they have in canada. that is interesting. there are several mainstream economists who actually think this would be a beneficial step towards reducing inequality in income in part because
immigration right now is more heavily skewed to low skilled workers. low skilled natives will have to compete against the influx versus higher skilled natives not dealing with that same sort of force. this has probably been a factor contributing someone to increasing equality in the u.s. how much is up to debate but it is an interesting twist to it has otherwise been rhetoric simply limiting immigration. davhow much does geography affect this? we see a list of seven countries reduced to six. we can start there. michael: right. six or seven is a very small part of the story. we'll see that having any doerial or measurable -- we not see that having any material or measurable impact. it is more security than economics. david: you talk about the theory. how does that factor in?
michael: right. when i said that if you remove all the unauthorized workers in this country, you might lower gdp by 1.5%. that is taking an assumption that you can quickly replace these workers with other native workers. that may not be the case. in that transitional period, even though some of these undocumented immigrants are poorly paid, low-paid, they are doing tasks that more highly skilled workers are relying on them to do that task. you take it out of the equation and it may get drummed up. there are complications here. david: absolutely. fascinating study. stay with us. he will stick around. we will talk a little bit about what we heard from janet yellen last week. formerup at 1:30, chairman of the house financial
david: this is "bloomberg markets: trump's first 100 days ." im david gura. optimism sparked by president trump in his speech. janet yellen said the central bank was likely to act at the next policymaking meeting barring any surprise. three rate hikes this year up from two. ellis behind what is moving that call. what changed your mind? what changed our mind is a basically told us they would hike in march. it seems pretty obvious what to
do when they basically write the fed call down for you. a lot of people i talked to are still somewhat in shock about how rapid and blunt a change in message of occurred last week. again, the deli balance. well motivated it? -- again, thehat agai deadly balance. what motivated it? hard to say. it seems like the move that we have seen in risk assets is contributing factor. the relative stability of the dollar in the face of that has probably also given them some confidence. but why that message last week versus two weeks ago? we got minutes that were generally regarded as a little bit dovish. seems like a pretty sudden change. asset markets that
contributed to that. perhaps the committee reached the tipping point where a number of people that they were getting to the point that there were going that the chair realized sh it to execute the consensus on the community that they need to get word out to move sooner. david: you were in the room where it happened. let me ask you about the view of the market versus the rest of the committee. does he take a more active interest in how the markets are doing versus the rest? michael: i think the arguments -- peaps. we have not heard quite the same from other committee members. maybe he is being more frank. i think the argument we have been hearing a lot more lately is that they have been asking themselves in public whether they have been getting behind the curve. but thep saying no, fact that they are asking it shows there is doubt in their mind whether they are. probably varies from person to person.
another is focused onhe dollar and four and developments not being a headwind right now. to some degree, i suspect all participants are factoring in what we are seeing in surveys and in equity markets. david: great to have you here. thank you so much. the chief u.s. economist at j.p. morgan joining us to talk about the fed and immigration policy. will join me.rank he will weigh in on the travel ban and trade policy. please do not miss that exclusive interview, coming up on bloomberg. ♪
left there with the headline on the bloomberg first word news this afternoon. mark has those from the newsroom. mark: europe will create the continent's second-largest automaker. the maker of the show and citroen, making foxhole brands. bloomberg spoke with volkswagen ceo mattea's mueller about what ins means for competition the european on a market. >> in the past, we have had competition from opel and we have been dealing with it. we always respected them as competitors and we will respect their new combination. .his will not stop us we are very confident. the: matt miller is at geneva motor show where vw unveiled the war door luxury sedan.
reducing america's huge trade deficits will deliver stronger economic growth and improve national security. that assessment from what has traded riser peter navarro speaking at an economics conference. china use the proceeds of export sales to buy u.s. companies and technology. reportedly have launched a new wave of attacks, this time targeting libera groups in the u.s.. according to people familiar with the matter, they are scouring the organization's emails for embarrassing details and demanded hush money. the center for american progress, a washington think tank. the organizations reportedly paid ransoms. leaders of the french public and party a meeting to consider the they of presidential candidate who may face charges of embezzlement in a corruption scandal.
many top supporters have withdrawn support and urged him to quit. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2600 and analyst in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. david: turning to trade, i spoke exclusively with barney frank. the future of trade policy. >> it's not just policy. it they are both affected by the sense among americans that their interest have been subordinated to foreigners.
that argument it is done by very limited area. >> did you see this wave of populism coming, declaring the tpp dead? >> i voted against nafta and i voted against the wto. remember,g as i can economic policy in america, they are simply ignoring the negative effects that all this has. productces gross to mr. -- gross domestic product.
there is a tendency to think that inflation is awful, all these people are selling these things cheaply. to some negative effect extent, but it has a positive effect. i think the macro effects are good. the problem is very negative distribution effects. there is economy. i agree. it is a procyclical policy in that regard. so i not worried about the overall deficit in terms of slowing down growth. obviously, the rest of the world , there is a drag on our growth. there is an upside to imports. nobody is forcing america to import.
stuff to give us goods. the benefits are unfairly done. david: is it more difficult to deal with inequality when there is a multilateral deal? it will push for more one-to-one deals. is that better for the case -- >> they are unrelated. the deals, the multilateral deals make sense. public policies recognize that trade are exacerbating the quality.
bilateral or multilateral. it is very unfairly distributed. i want a policy of two sorts. secondly, we should be foreasing public policy quality of life for people. if you lose her job because of trade, we will lose health car i think that's a strong argument for exteing health care. it can give this poor president a headache and nobody told him that health care was going to be complicated. he's going to have to get over that.
there are things we should do the deal with that. i'm not just talking about job training. they probably will become a -- thereprogrammer or are things we can do to hire people to put them to work. recognizing that increased trade obama and clinton would say, we agree. there are those effects and we are for policies that will minimize that or compensate people for them. the problem was, first, we will get the trade bill. then we will do these offsets.
politically, taking get broad and mycan support , make them a ckage. make it clear you will not push forward with increased trade until we have an agreement -- not an agreement, but a binding decision to put policies in place. david: barney frank, the former chairman of the house financial services committee. we will have more on financial reform and tax reform throughout the day. coming up, canada's abbasid to the united yates was the trumpet minister -- trumps administrator -- canada's ambassador to the united's dates once the trump administration . ♪
david: this is bloomberg markets, trumps first hundred days with a focus on politics and policy under the new administration. abigail doolittle. abigail: we're looking at declines in the u.s. today. the dow, the nasdaq and the s&p trading lower. investors are trying to figure out what is going on out there from the fundamental perspective. last week, we had volatility. we had the biggest rally of the year last week followed by the biggest pullback in more than a month on thursday. a little more of a tug-of-war between the bears and the bulls. the bears are winning. we take a look at the s&p 500 imap, a quick way to get a snapshot of what happening. we are looking at mainly red. we have two sectors trading
slightly higher. actione bit of bullish or a little bit of that tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears. down .7%. we have lots of the big banks dragon including bank of america , citigroup, and wells fargo. all trading lower on the day. the 10 year yield in a moment, it doesn't appear to be in the 10 year yield trading lower, it appears to be trading higher. we do have a number of wall street's out there weighing in on whether the big rally out of the election -- this is the financial sector out of the election, whether or not it can continue. it could create a big correction.
we have it trading up about two basis points again. this would help the banks and we are seeing a bit of an oddball trade here. we have yields rising as investors continue to believe the fed is likely to raise rates on march 15. rates. will raise when we got back into the bloomberg. this is a great chart. the fed is targeting 4.8%. they have achieved success. this is the preferred look at inflatio remarkable that we have this movement in the data measures. considering where we were in 2009.
on the part of the fed. david: stuck on that 96% probability. calling for swiss action to update nafta because delays could discourage investment across the continent. at the annual policy conference, peter navarro addressed the future of nafta head on. >> important trait negotiations will soon be moving forward with nafta partners like mexico and japan. as well as other allies like japan and great britain. david: joining us now with more from bloomberg tv canada, what is the ambassador from canada saying right now? what is the rationale wanting to move forward more quickly? isa think the rationale
really this idea that clarity is super important when it comes to helping companies helping manufacturers here in canada. but also on the american side of this relationship. the idea that canada would be calling for a quicker set of talks here is interesting. counterintuitive considering donald trump is really the one that initiated the idea that nafta needs to be opened up. they call this the worst trade deal in history. what hasn't been said is that people are sitting on their wallets. is this lackoint of clarity has disrupted investments. not just in canada, but throughout the continent of north america. this is something that is reflected a lot among the people that we have on our show. canada is something a lot of ceos talk about. told berg recently that you can't just open up the
u.s.-canada piece of this agreement. you can't just leave that as it is and try to fix the mexico part of this agreement. on the laborepends pool in mexico. if you disrupt that, he will have to look to places like china to supply his company with the parts they need. david: how has the rhetoric changed in the last four to five weeks. not just the president and the prime minister of canada, but advisers meeting with canadian counterparts. has the tone shifted at all? >> of course. when we first started talking about the idea of a renegotiation, a lot of canadian companies were very concerned. trudeau, the prime minister, was in washington last month, we heard donald trump use for what heak thinks should happen to the u.s.-canada side of this agreement. it caused a lot of people to take a collective sigh and feel betterbouthere things are
headed. it is interesng to ar the ambassador's comments about what lies ahead here for the prospect of a bilateral relationship, a trade agreement between the u.s. and canada. he called that idea complete nonsense in his interview with bloomberg most recently. i think it's important, this idea that canada is not going to throw mexico under the proverbial bus when it comes to these talks. we are here in toronto a couple weeks ago. for a panel discussion, the trade minister, the main point person, it does hold some of the cards for how this plays out or mexico. she said that canada values its relationship with mexico. having said that, canada comes at this with a lot less baggage. mexico certainly doesn't have
the kind of leverage canada does going into these talks. me ask you about the administration, the trade minister, the foreign minister. it is a giant relationship in terms of size. >> it is important to remember that the relationship, the trade relationship between canada and the u.s. is a fairly balanced one. it is a very important one for both sides. i think that is something that is the theme that canadian officials will be pounding on. we've already been talking a lot about this with their counterparts. more and more of trump's cabinet starts to get filled out. thehese come into play,
u.s. ambassador to canada. as those positions start to get filled and confirmed. david: tomorrow on bloomberg markets, bank of montreal ceo will join us to discuss the banks growth and sustained strength of canadian financial services at 11 15 he astern time -- at 11:15 a.m. eastern time. this is bloomberg. ♪
rachel brand served as associate attorney general. kevin is really outside the white house. sean spicer, the white house press secretary. saying the white house is looking ahead here to this new ban. >> they said that iraq's government took steps to increase cooperation. one of the original seven nations, predominantly muslim nations. the executive actions came out earlier today. white house press secretary sean spicer that if the nation is to negotiate.
it is a rollout that did not include president trump speaking directly to the american people on this new round. cabinet secretaries earlier today saying this administration had no choice but to revise. as this investigation into russia's involvement in the election continues, if he is confirmed, we will hear a lot more. tell us about the importance of this confirmation heg tomorrow? not a namein familiar to many but certainly to be one in the next couple of months. recusingney general himself from any future or existing investigation into the trump administration ties to russian officials during the administration or during the campaign. means by default, his deputy attorney general, the person
president trump has nominated will face tough questions tomorrow during his senate confirmation hearing. not only about how he will implement immigration executive orders, but how he will go about any type of investigation into russia. over the weekend, russia dominating the headlines. it will resurface tomorrow at the senate hearing. mnuchinou have steve and many others paying close attention to that. the first jobs report under this new administration. they will be looking for not only just a strong sign of u.s. growth, but also to be pushing for signs of economic confidence. they have pointed to a healthy stock market as a sign that they are creating economic certainty and economic confidence. all of this leading to the april 28 showdown. congress needs to pass some type of russia government spending
bill to avert a government shutdown. they need all the economic confidence they can get as these headlines with russia and immigration executive orders continue to roll out. david: rex tillerson planning his first trip to asia and japan, coming up as well. joining us from outside the white house. coming up on bloomberg markets, what did you miss? my excuse of interview with barney frank. a formerly of massachusetts and the former chairman of the house financialservices. and tax reform throughout the day here on bloomberg television. you can catch all their interviews on bloomberg with the function tv and find breaking news, charts, and related functionality. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ >> where live at bloomberg world headquarters in new york over the next hour. covering stories out of washington, norway, moscow, baghdad. here are the stories from around the world. u.s. stocks are trading with treasuries is the gold and dollar advance. the central bank is planning to raise rates when it needs next week. can friday's jobs report change the consensus? in politics, an exclusive interview with barney frank, the architect of the financial law argues if it is in danger under president trump. plus, russian hackers are reportedly targeting u.s. liberal groups, demanding ransom. we will have more. close in just a