Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  March 8, 2017 2:00pm-3:31pm EST

2:00 pm
♪ scarlet: from bloomberg world headquarters, it will take you from mexico city to toronto, london and beijing. here are the top stories we're tracking from around the world and on bloomberg. we start with markets were treasuries are tumbling, heading for their longest losing streak in five years. the dollar rising. payrolls exceeded expectations. and politics, u.s. commerce secretary tells bloomberg about his plan to reduce the trade deficit, saying the u.s. should --'s we are one week from the fed decision on interest rates. they protect the federal bill old-school when it comes to rate hikes and we examine what he means by that. u.s. markets close in two hours. let's check on however thing is going. we talked about treasuries. equities trying to find direction right now. julie: we got the adp report
2:01 pm
this morning showing job growth last month of 298,000, well above estimates. stocks really not reacting very much. all reaction came in the bond market. we continue to sort of drift. since we 101 sessions have seen a 1% pullback in the s&p 500. really this draft has been continuing. in terms of individual movers, there is something of note. down that muched on a percentage based but is moving downward. that's after bloomberg comeau the story the company has been losing market share. according to a report by a research firm that uses signals from mobile phones in order to measure customer traffic. starbucks shares down to 11% among the u.s. restaurants that attract -- that are tracked in february, down from 12% in january. the company has been having problems with its stores.
2:02 pm
we have been watching caterpillar today and the other materials and industrial companies. caterpillar is lower after the new york times said a report commissioned by the government accuses the company of tax and accounting fraud. giving more details to the raid on the offices last week. we don't have confirmation on this. we don't know in the new york times points out if the federal government agrees with this report, nonetheless,. it's putting pressure on the shares we have ppg, the industrial chemicals group exploring a potential deal with its dutch rival. that's according to people familiar with the matter in a skin from bloomberg's deals team. some chemical makers are catching a bit on that as well. outside of stocks, oil is a big mover today. the biggest one-day decline since last july, down by more than 4%. it has been a strange trade today.
2:03 pm
we have a weekly inventories report which shows once again the ninth straight consecutive gain in oil inventories to its highest level ever on the seasonally adjusted basis. we saw oil bounce around, even take a leg up because there was a drawdown in distillate and gasoline inventories. that oil begin a long time will to where it is right now. $50.87 a barrel. the initial reaction would not ignore the negative one. scarlet: thank you so much. oliver: let's check on first word news. mark crumpton is in his room. mark: thank you. two house committees began the first working sessions the formally right republican legislation to dismantle the affordable care law. the ways and means and energy and commerce committee's are both likely to debate and vote on the measures all day. the proposal they are considering is supported by president trump, but faces strong opposition from
2:04 pm
conservatives and concerns from moderate republicans. fbi director james comey said today cybersecurity can be compared to the fight against terrorism. speaking at a cybersecurity conference, at boston college he said, "the threats are too fast, too big and too widespread for any of us to address them alone." >> these are more than just a tax on our infrastructure. they are attacks on employees and customers. they are attacks on. the tatian they are attacks on our economy and security. they are increasingly attacks on our fundamental rights. director comey said he plans to serve his entire tenure, at the agency telling the crowd you are stuck with me for another six and a half years. this tenure began in 2013 when he was appointed by president obama. police in three european countries have rated dozens of homes and offices linked to
2:05 pm
suspected cyber criminals. more than 1000 investigators searched homes and businesses and germany, lot the a and britain. they were in connection with crime network viz, a darknet buy that allegedly used to and sell stolen goods, drugs and medication. nikki haley says the u.s. has to see "positive action from north korea" before he can begin discussions on ways to reduce tensions on the korean peninsula. calls in response to a from china today for both nations to avoid a head on collision. the chinese want pyongyang to stop its nuclear activities and the u.s. to suspend military drills with south korea. ambassador haley says the exercises are defensive and have been held for 10 years. hascity of san francisco asked the court to block president trump's executive order cutting funding to the so-called sanctuary cities.
2:06 pm
the city attorney in san francisco says no federal funds have been withheld yet. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. oliver? oliver: as the debate grows over the republican health care bill blueback finance reporters have been looking at how the gop proposal may give a big boost to the investing community. let's talk about this because obviously they have to fund whatever it is they are going to change in health care. health care had to be funded the first time around. it will come at least to some extent with taxes. >> the obamacare bill and it was passed italy's revenue raisers. one of them was a unique tax, a net investment income tax. it is basically designed to catch as much revenue as it can from investors with this 3.8% tax on anything investors get
2:07 pm
from capital gains to dividends to royalties to rental income it gets it all. but it is only paid by people of the very top of the economic spectrum. over $200,000 in income. scarlet: what happened this time around with the republican approach? they want to get rid of that income tax and go to the previous system of basically not having it there. they are also proposing other tax cuts like they want to get rid of a taxon tanning salons -- tax on tanning salons and medical device taxes. this is something investors, especially if they make -- are in the top 1% will start to feel if this repeal actually happens. oliver: we have gotten the drawbacks. this is the tanning salon tax, net investment income tax. these are things peppered throughout to get the bill done. do we know what else republicans are looking at because obviously
2:08 pm
it will not be free. what are going to be the taxes or the reform taxes that will support it in some way? administration republicans have a lot of trouble looking for revenue. we are not just talking about this tax reform. we are talking about income tax changes in corporate tax reforms also proposed. we don't know the details on those either. at the end of the day they will be either a huge cuts in government spending and huge cuts in access to health care, or they will have to raise these taxes or roll back some of the proposals they have made. scarlet: i want to dig into this net investment tax. was this something the republicans or president trump promised to repeal when he was campaigning? is this something that gathered a lot of momentum? i don't think -- ben: it is something a little annoying to people that are in
2:09 pm
the top 1%. it is hard to avoid in hard to evade. it has been one of these things about obamacare that is always rankled people, especially conservatives. they have this tax that basically is just -- scarlet: it's an extra tax. ben: on top of any other tax you are paying, you have to pay this three-point percent. -- 3.8%. oliver: this looks at how much that tax is based on what you make. even when you start out with the top 1%, do you that line around $200,000 a year. it's still not a huge deal but it starts to add up when you are making $3 million or $4 million. top .01% we are talking about an average hit of about $165,000 a year. this is significant revenue,
2:10 pm
$160 billion over the next 10 years comes from just this one tax alone. then another $600 billion of tax cuts that are also on the table in this obamacare appeal. of things are going to have to be figured out as they wait for the details of the new -- wade through the details of the new plan. oliver: coming up, wilbur ross says nafta talks likely will not begin until later this year. more on his comments. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:11 pm
2:12 pm
♪ this is bloomberg markets. scarlet: after a successful career as an investor, wilbur ross took on his new role as much as commerce secretary. much of the talk about washington is about his number one job, putting together any trade policy. earlier today in an interview, he discusses the
2:13 pm
administration's commitment to renegotiating nafta. >> we regularly have a trade surplus with mexico. now we regularly have a substantial trade deficit with mexico. it is not true that pre-nafta and post nafta there is no change. there is a big change. >> one goal is to reduce if not eliminate the trade deficit with mexico? secretary ross: we think there is no logical reason why one nicery, namely the u.s., to have a trade deficit that roughly equals the combined trade surplus of the rest of the world. it is not our faith in life that fate in to absorb -- life that we have to absorb from everyone else. david: there will have to be some threats, i don't think it's too strong of a word, about tariffs or border tax or something else. could that disrupt trade overall with mexico?
2:14 pm
what is it me for general motors? sec. ross: i am not a very theatening feature -- mexicans know the canadians know everyone knows times are different. we are going to have new trade relations with people. they all know they will have to make concessions. the only question is what is the magnitude and what is the forum of the concessions. i am told the president repeatedly has made my job a lot easier by softening up the adverse parties. what could be better than going into a negotiation where the fellow on the other side knows he has to make concessions? >> what is the time horizon now? when you expect negotiations to begin and how quickly would you like to get them resolved? ross: we are now in the early stages of the tpa process,
2:15 pm
the trade promotion authority. the so-called fast-track. that process by its nature has a couple months starting point before anything serious happens. you are talking probably the latter part of this year before real negotiations get underway. david: you know from your prior role as a successful investor that business really does not like uncertainty. when an investment decisions, they like to know what happens. there is urgency to get this thing resolved and know what we are dealing with. sec. ross: they don't have any more sense of urgency than i do. i'm well aware the president has a well-documented sense of urgency as well. scarlet: that was commerce secretary wilbur ross speaking with david westin earlier today. staying on the nafta negotiation, canada has called for talks to begin on concerns that uncertainty over the outcome will stymie investments. mexico's government has already started a discussion with businesses that depend heavily
2:16 pm
on nafta. let's bring in to reporters writing about the nafta discussions. eric martin in mexico city and josh when growth. eric, let me start with you. there was this perception that the u.s. is calling all the shots but mexico very much wants to renegotiate parts of nafta as well, doesn't it? update foro was things that were not included in the original agreement. digital commerce, telecommunications, the energy industry. one problem we is that nafta renegotiation means something different depending on which country you are in. plaxico is very against the tariffs that donald trump has tweeted about, including on ford and toyota. agreement, yes, but adding tariffs is a no go for mexico. oliver: hammes negotiating cowardice mexico have? we can look at the
2:17 pm
import-export, and they are big trading partners with canada and mexico. can they really hold out and have a hard nose on that? eric: mexico this talk of it having an integral negotiation in which they put on the table all the issues of cooperation with the u.s. that includes border security, immigration in mixing those issues together with nafta and the commercial negotiation. the mexican foreign minister said it would be difficult to have a good relationship on one side and a bad relationship on the other. what we are seeing is mexico potentially using some of those cards and getting cooperation with the u.s. on some of the other matters that are important to the trump administration, to potentially leverage the commercial situation. oliver: looking at the terminal here, there is a great way to look into the export import trading partners. what we are looking at here is the u.s. exports on the right-hand side. guess what is at the top of the list?
2:18 pm
canada, a huge trading partner. scarlet: $236 billion worth of goods and services crossing the border. --h, what does canada want what is canada's priority when negotiations begin from their point of view? what do they want preserved and changed? josh: there is stuff that always wanted to add to nasa, things like -- nafta, things like labored ability -- most labor mobility. and the tpp deal that was effectively a nafta update. now that donald trump pulled out of the tpp, canada will try to talk that back in. the issue for the canadians has always been they don't think they are the target but they were they will be the collateral damage. and dealing with a lot of other issues between the u.s. and sicko, canada is mounting a widespread lobbying effort to end this rotation of ministers coming to washington
2:19 pm
to say anything you do in mexico really could hurt canada and the u.s. by extension without you really realizing it. that is why the key message is canada is the number one export market with 35 u.s. states, including a lot of the states that helped donald trump gets of the white house. they are hoping he does not paint with two bigger brush. oliver: what was the reaction when justin trudeau into the u.s. and spoke with trump and they talked about nafta? it seems like there was overall cordial but maybe there was a little bit more intensity to come as those negotiations get underway. commentsetary ross' are made two ways. it's a longer time i been some people thought. number two, we are talking years and we will start getting into more complex negotiations than canada thought. that could cut both ways. give a lot more things get put on the table that will raise fears. the number one belief out of washington with justin trudeau was relief.
2:20 pm
they wanted to get out of there without any five alarm scandals blowing up. they managed to do that. i think they are hopeful that donald trump's messagesthnafta t going. scarlet: talk a little bit about the timetable here for negotiation. there is the mexican presidential election we need to keep in mind. midterm elections come up in 2018. these things are easy to set you want to get started on right away, but actually wrapping things up in time is very difficult to put into practice. eric: the mexican side would really like to see things wrapped up potentially this year or relate -- or by the latest 2018. facing presidential politics with the trade negotiation is difficult under any circumstances, particularly in this situation. mexico wants to provide certainty. there is concern about the potential for investments to be delayed and the main -- in the manufacturing industry.
2:21 pm
one place the mexican economy is very strong in recent years. we have seen comments that manufacturers and vehicle producers might invest less in mexico-based of the uncertainty. mexico wants to get a good deal in london does not include tariffs, but also has this timetable running to avoid the presidential politics here in the midterm politics with congress and the u.s.. oliver: that will be a whole assessing how it will impact each politician. josh, i'm looking at the u.s. dollar versus the canadian dollar. how, we have to talk about big a deal the peso has been in terms of the frame. on the canadian side, getting pretty strong relative to history here. how does the canadian government view the currency element within this entire conversation? josh: we have seen both the dollar and equity markets, canada marching in step with the u.s. since donald trump selection.
2:22 pm
investors are betting candidate will be exempt. the whole message of the canadian group is it is difficult for donald trump to break out his scalpel and do whatever surgery he wants to do to nafta without hurting canada. the broader issue for canada is the dollar does move in oil. oil goes down, so does the canadian dollar relative to the u.s. dollar. oil is one of the top exports from canada to the u.s., the number one supplier. not only nafta, but when you talk about paul ryan sported tax proposal, there is a lot of ways canada can get hit and canadian oil producers can get hit when it comes to u.s. exports. all that will be reflected through the dollar. oliver: with the numbers with the u.s. trade deficit. about $49 billion last month. eric and josh with bloomberg news in mexico and canada respectively. scarlet: bob iger speaking of the company's angle meeting
2:23 pm
today. he talked to his future with the trump administration. tomorrow, francine lacqua has an excessive interview with jpmorgan's ceo jamie dimon. that's a 7:45 eastern, 12:45 london time. i will focus on president trump's first 100 days, cries and the global banking. from new york this is bloomberg. ♪
2:24 pm
2:25 pm
♪ oliver: it is time for the bloomberg business flash, some of the biggest news stories today. the industrial chemicals group exploring a potential deal with exxon mobil, who say pvt is working with advisers to study a transaction that could involve acquiring all or part of the dutch rival. they created a global leader in specialty chemicals with the market value of a combined $40 billion. acceleratedchi, and
2:26 pm
sale process of $30 billion in bad loans as soon as the eu approves a new business puzzle. -- a basel. -- business proposal. oneill only give bidders month to analyze debt before requesting offers. that is your bloomberg business flash update. still ahead, commodities growth. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:27 pm
2:28 pm
2:29 pm
♪ oliver: markets are closing in new york. but she were some of the raw materials than now. nymex crude prices dropped on eia showing the years -- there is still so much oil flooding the market.
2:30 pm
bloomberg analysts say robust production can only postpone a market rebound. price is now settling around $50 $50.31. -- worth 9ined decline is million barrels and it is a third week in a row that both numbers have dropped. gasoline prices right and now setting at a little less than 106 he five dollars. $165.n scarlet: mark crumpton has more from our newsroom. mark: the city of san francisco is seeking a temporary injunction that would block president trump's executive sanctuary cities. san francisco officials say the order threatens to billion
2:31 pm
dollars in funding, although no federal funds have been withheld yet here in the president met today with the widow steve jobs. the president planned to discuss immigration and education with laurene powell jobs. to -- isrtune is eight $18 billion. she created a foundation that educationducation, and environmental reform. iceland will be the first in the world to make employers prove they offer equal pay regardless of gender, ethnicity, sexuality or nationality. the country made the announcement today to mark international women's day. iceland says it will introduce legislation to parliament this month, requiring companies with more than 25 employees to obtain certification to approve they gave equal pay for work of equal value. there are signs that british prime and us or theresa may will issue brexit 20 end of the month. to prime minister first has
2:32 pm
wait for her bill to pass parliament, which probably will happen next week. then the prime minister is unlikely to want to clash with the dutch election on march 15 or the irish national parties conference next week. this is bloomberg. scarlet: on international women's day, we are focusing on the shortage of women on wall street. the numbers haven't improved -- have improved in the last decade, there are still a gap. women represent 15% to 20% of the workforce in finance. less than 10% of fund managers are women. our guest is ceo of wells fargo
2:33 pm
asset management and joins us from scottsdale, arizona. thank you for joining us. christie: thank you, scarlet. oliver: we mention -- on average, in the rest of the world, it is one in five fund managers who are female. why is the u.s. so far behind? christie: i think the problem is twofold. it comes from two sources. part of it is a pool problem. we do not have enough women in the academic arenas that fuel portfolio management. we see women underrepresented in stem. the second issue that we have is really a matching problem. comingare a young woman into finance today, you actually don't see a lot of successful women portfolio managers that you can actually relate to. it's a complicated question. but i think it's those two things, the pool problem in the matching problem which are the
2:34 pm
important sources are barriers to really seeing women's presence increased in portfolio management in general. scarlet: so you're talking pipeline invisibility being the two obstacles. make the transition from sales at goldman sachs at the start of your career after you got your mba to where you are now? was it by design? was it by accident? kristi: it was completely by accident. i would like to say that i had a grand plan for my life career. but i really didn't. i think there were things that were central to what i wanted. one, i absolutely knew i wanted to focus on making a difference for clients. so i intentionally found roles and industries where i could have impact on the clients that i was serving. . that was critically important to me. two,found things thato, -- i played the things that focused on my skill set. i tried to find roles would
2:35 pm
really accentuate those capabilities. scarlet: and it led to where you are now. it comes to being a successful asset manager, you have to have a cool head and calculated -- levelheaded about taking calculated risks and take a long-term view. do you think those are aligned with your skill sets or is there a tendency for the industry to award aggression? kristi: i think on sensation -- i think compensation in our industry is in line with the long-term. a long-term asset management, we ourk critically about formulas.on we need to do what we are asking our clients to do, which is really to have patience, to wait for the long-term and really focus on the long-term success of their investment. scarlet: you mentioned earlier about the pipeline and perhaps how there are not enough women in stem disciplines. for being an asset manager,
2:36 pm
there's a lot of quantitative skills. do women hold back from asset management because of it? kristi: the number of women in finance, we think about what we have seen since 2000, they have been declining. there are fewer women entering finance. it's been a 16% decrease, compared to an 8% decrease for males. i think it is absolutely true that women are self selecting out of the financial services industry. i think it is imperative, if we want to be successful, for us to reach out and try to really re-recruit those women into finance and help them understand the significant potential that a career in asset management can offer them. scarlet: talk about what you consider to be the most effective kind of institutional support for women to advance in the asset management industry. what has worked particularly well? tosti: i think it's hard find the thing is, honestly, that have worked particularly well. i think i can tell you from my
2:37 pm
own experience, one of the most important things that i think leaders can do is really own what i call sort of their personal actions. by that i mean everybody out there, every senior leader brings a set of biases to the workforce and we have to intentionally and lament blockers to those biases -- implement blockers to those biases. and we don't have to wait for someone to tell us to do that. if i'm thinking about a person or a set of people for a position, a person or set of people to give access compensation, what i always want to look for is the no list. who am i not emoting or rewarding with additional compensation? i want to make sure there is no gender bias or other diversity bias in those recommendations. scarlet: that's like a tie to contract. when we talk about -- that like a type two contract.
2:38 pm
when we talk about mentors, how sponsor? companies to kristi: that's an ask we can make in corporate america. but the one trick is making sure we match people appropriately. to have anard adopted person to sponsor that you don't really connect with, that you don't understand, advocate.you can't the biggest advancement is, yes, making the asked for sponsorship, but spend a lot of time really thinking through that matching and making sure you get it just right. scarlet: for someone like you, i'm sure there's a lot of ask for that sponsorship. we appreciate your time. kristi: thank you. isti mitchamt's krst at wells fargo.
2:39 pm
oliver: coming up, bob iger defends his seat on normal chops defense panel. nancy pelosi is holding a news conference in which she is vowing to defend former president obama's affordable care act. you can watch that entire conference on the bloomberg under the function tv . this is bloomberg. ♪
2:40 pm
2:41 pm
♪ scarlet: this is bloomberg markets.
2:42 pm
bloomberg now for the is this flash. oliver: everything is happening right now. deutsche post dropped in earnings today. frank apple on bloomberg tv today and said the german mail carrier is not shopping itself. >> there is no need to do something like the u.k. mail mail deal. in some markets, it is better to acquire something and some it's better to do it organically. it depends on the availability of proper targets to make the decision on markets. with a combination of organic and smaller acquisitions come i think we found the right recipe for success. so is sa and canada have
2:43 pm
agreed to buy general electric's water unit. they cash deal allows a french utility to expand its operation outside of europe. suez will partly fund the acquisition with $790 million. expand.s looking to the startup has asked mckenzie and company to research for longer-term markets. mckenzie's work includes a competitive announced that analysis of craigslist, which dominates rental markets. abigail: today, disney did hold its annual shareholders meeting in denver, colorado. not doinghe stock's much. one colorful headline, the protester asking bob iger to
2:44 pm
step down from a trump advisory council. that.er declined to do for one of the bigger questions for disney overall is what is his succession plan? bob iger's 66 and there are thoughts he will be stepping down soon. this is a long-term chart over his tenure since 2005. great returns, up 300%, more than 300%. today, bob iger made the point, since he has been ceo at disney, the company has added with a 3000 jobs. it's also worth noting, since he has been ceo, profits have more than doubled. very impressive. the question is what is ahead. the details do not come out. but paul sweeney says he does believe it is a strong likelihood that he could sign a two-year contract as opposed to what had been before, a five-year contract. we will be waiting for news on that. one point around disney, it has been flip-flopping recently.
2:45 pm
this is a long-term chart. in white, we have disney shares. in blue, we have revenue growth. revenue growth has plummeted while shares are not at all-time highs, but near all-time highs. in the past, it has been more strongly coordinated. films are expected to be light in 2017. but the reason for that passed from investors is investors think 2018 will be very strong. however, paul sweeney said with a key here is that they do not lose anymore espn subscribers. they lost 10 million over the lesser lawyers. if they lose my than that, that could cause the stock to lose revenue growth. but hopefully, the revenue growth will catch up to the stocks. scarlet: thank you for setting the scene for us. for more on disney, let's go to crayton harrison in los angeles. based in burbank. it is hosting its annual meeting
2:46 pm
in denver so that shareholders can get to the event. i wanted to start with what requesthad mentioned, a that he step down from the strategic and policy form. do we get a sense of how much debate there was? is a something that others called for? crayton: there were people that asked about this. questions, plutko everything from immigration policy-related questions to whether disney would switch out the paper towels in the amusement parks for hand dryers to save the environment. so it ran the gamut. but this did come up. bob iger's response said, look, it's better for us to be in the room with the president so that we can reflect disney's values in the white house and have that level of axis with the president. that was met with a round of applause. denver didter in talk to shareholders after the me who express the same thing. they felt like it was better for disney to be working with the
2:47 pm
president as opposed to sitting on the sidelines. scarlet: that's interesting. travis kalanick of uber tried to a give that response by not get very far with his customers. oliver: i feel like there is a different type of company, a different type of investor base to some extent. obviously, uber going to the airports during the initial version of the travel ban got people of an arms. given a tiger, his position here were there's questions about his , how long he is going to continue, how long will we have to tiptoe around these things or does he still have the full -- does he still have that kind of support from the investor base? crayton: yes. he's had a good run. tenurestions about his did really come up in any direct way in the shareholder meeting.
2:48 pm
there was a q&a session. there were a lot of questions, but this one did not rise to the occasion. and you're right. that's part of the reason, you look over his 10 year and that his tenure -- over his tenure and investors are satisfied. the big ones. how will they retain their cable subscribers or attract new ones? scarlet: that's reflected in the latest results as well, which subscriber show decline at espn. bob iger talked about the results and how it's been a year that has been unlike others. he called it an anomaly, didn't he? creighton: yes. he said it a few times. this year is going to be an anomaly. that's partly because they had such an amazing year at the box office. the fiscal year starts in september -- i'm sorry, in october. so you look at the run they went on with star wars at the end of
2:49 pm
2015 and some of the movies throughout early last year. there was a captain america movie that was a big success. this year their films to last year, it was going to be down and always was. then you have a contract they have with the nba. you are not going to see the kind of growth you have seen from disney. as you noted, investors will be looking ahead to 2018 and that is where you see the valley reflected in the stock. oliver: they will have to rely on some of the legacy agreements because there is a sanguine attitude from some in the company. thank you so much for bringing us that story. coming up, just the luck says the fed has -- jeff goodlatte says the fed has historically raised rates until something
2:50 pm
breaks. we will find out what the level might be. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:51 pm
2:52 pm
scarlet: the fed is expected to rate next week. sequential.ll be that would mean the fed would be returning to its old-school practice. main oneeted that some meeting, one hike in march and a subsequent hike in march when the fed meets again. joe: we talked about that last week, that we would see more -- rapid pace of rate hikes. this is how it used to be a lot
2:53 pm
of the time with tightening cycles. , the to the housing bubble fed was on this course of a hike , hike, meeting after meeting. that practice fell into this review. -- fell into disrepute. like so out there that this could happen again. but it may be the one thing no one is expecting. oliver: to the point of whether or not it is good to have a set we saw inmove that the fed funds futures in the market expectations, the mood is 100% across-the-board. there's got to be some sort of unknown in the input of finding out where rates are going. how healthy is that really? is a lot of the criticism of fed policy leading up to the bubble. it was too certain.
2:54 pm
and when there's that much uncertainty, traders and investors go on autopilot. typically, you think good things don't happen when people are on autopilot. oliver: -- that's how it used to be done. that's old-school. you raised interest rate spiked when he five basis point. in: a far cry from one december 2015, another a december 2016, maybe one in march, maybe three. it is very different. there is one good reason things are different now, is that we are close to the zero lower bound and the fed cannot companies company zero. so it was to maintain maximum cautiousness. but stocks are surging and the economy looking good. maybe it doesn't need to be as cautious. scarlet: jeff goodlatte said the stock market surge will let the
2:55 pm
continue. and peter out after a while. joe: classically, that is what causes recessions and bear markets. it's been so long since we've had a normal fed recession. everyone remembers the two crashes, the post-telecom, the post tech crash and the post housing bubble. but it used to be the fed would have rates slow death rates lower. oliver: we haven't -- would have rates lower. we don't know what the impact is out of that it makes all of these decisions a much harder. even on the bull market look so much different than stocks. scarlet: that's why we are looking for a return to old school fed. later on, we will be speaking with lori hydro. we will get her perspective on the fed. and this new statute that --
2:56 pm
statue that you may have seen in the financial district. oliver: a programming of coming up tomorrow. exclusiveacqua has an interview with jamie dimon at 7:30 a.m. eastern. it's going to be great. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:57 pm
2:58 pm
2:59 pm
scarlet: welcome to bloom markets. oliver: we are going to take you from chicago to washington.
3:00 pm
go in the trading day and the s&p is facing us third straight loss. thedollar is rising after adp employment report shows companies in the u.s. are hiring the most in almost three years. apollo global management is at it again, reportedly looking to raise 20 billion dollars -- $20 million for a new bio find. -- $20 billion for a new buyout fund. we are one hour away from the close of trading. we haven't been unilaterally in the green at all today. we have seen the dow pretty consistently fall. we continue to be sideways. that is where we are for today
3:01 pm
and where we been for the past several days after closing at records last week. if you take a look at the groups on the move today, you will see we've got groups much more deeply in the red than the up groups are in the green. example, down 1.8%. utilities and real estate off by more than 1%. health care, the best group, of only .5%. interest discrepancy between the best and worst performing groups. oil prices are was responsible for the decline in energy stocks. we had the latest inventory report today showing that, once again, inventories rose to a seasonally adjusted record. crude oil has been extending its losses throughout the day, nearing $50 a barrel, down 5%. exxon mobil and chevron are also lower today. the other big factor in the market happens to be what's going on with the treasury market.
3:02 pm
we had a $20 billion auction of 10 year treasuries today. it showed a weaker demand in the prior auction, at least by some measures. we are now seeing the eighth straight session that yields have risen and prices have fallen as the bond rout is back into play, with the expectation the fed is going to raise rates on march 15. there is still some debate on the sustainability of this bond rout -- bond rally in yields because come as we know come a lot of investors have been predicting it for quite some time. finally, with that route we are seeing in the bond market, with the advancing yields, we have volatility.ng we have been seeing it in stocks. we are seeing it now also in fx and as well as treasuries and bonds around the globe. and wife, the jpmorgan global effects volatility index -- global fx volatility index. and the green is the merrill lynch volatility and bonds.
3:03 pm
both of them have seen declines. scarlet: reduce volatility. oliver: and some losses in the bond yields. scarlet: let's get you checked on the headlines. americamen all across are staying home from work today, wearing red and extending -- attending rallies across the country to show their economic strength and impact on society. it's all part of international women's day. the main event, the day without a woman, is being in -- being organized in washington. bys the first major action the organizers of the women's march since the day after donald trump's inauguration. treasury secretary steve mnuchin has a problem. he can't get to the choices for his management team approved by the white house. president trump's age say his
3:04 pm
aides-- president trump's or -- his picks are too old. fillon has gone up your them he's under pressure to quit because of the financial scandal. pen is leading with 26%. macron beingema le pen in the second round. more than 30 people were killed and 50 others wounded when an assault began with a suicide bombing and attackers wore medical uniforms in kabul.
3:05 pm
this is bloomberg. scarlet: competition is heating up among private equity firms. apollo global management seeking $20 billion for its new global buyout fund. that is after tkr close on monday. bloomberg markets asked what kind of return that firm is targeting. absolute basis, everyone acknowledges that returns will be coming down. i don't think anyone is smart enough to know what that will look like in the next 15 years. but on a relative basis, looking at 700 basis point -- 700 basis points in the public market. scarlet: joining us now is jason kelly. billion. the funds tend to exceed that. they are pretty ambitious. what does that tell us about a man -- about demand?
3:06 pm
jason: since 2013, every year, more than half $1 trillion pouring into private equity. this was after the financial crisis where things were a bit subdued. and now it really is getting back to the 2007-2008 levels. one interesting a stat out last week was there were 11 funds in the road last year looking for more than $5 billion. that's the biggest since 2008. the demand is huge among sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, family outfits, all looking for those returns that alisa was talking about. oliver: maybe i'm connecting dots on different size of the board, but i can't help thinking about the money coming on private equity. juxtapose that's all the money that has been going out of actively managed funds, hedge funds etc. does it kind of speak to the degree to which institutions and
3:07 pm
big many clients are looking to get some returns? jason: it is an interesting debate right now between active and passive. private arabic -- private equity has to make the case that we are alpha hunters and we are worth it. ultimately, this is a see game. private equity managers have to prove he is not only can i get you returns above and beyond public markets and just putting it in an index, but i can get you a lot more than you can get anywhere else. and i'm going to make you pay for it. is the standard fee come as you know, and that is a big chunk to pay. and yet, what they are hearing from public pensions -- we are in in a big way. oliver: some of those pensions have been taking money out of hedge funds and see private equity as a lucrative market. scarlet: what is the pitch? how does it differentiate itself
3:08 pm
from kkr? jason: apollo is a firm born almost 12 five years ago, more than five years ago, out of the ashes of drexel burma lambert. they liked these messy deals where you can go in and fix the balance sheet or fix the company. intoey wde into -- wade places where nobody else does. they play the balance sheet in lots of different ways. so there's not just. so there's not just purely equity investors. they feel like, ok, these guys know how to make money, whether it is an up market, a down market. they like the messy stuff. they will get in there and get their hands dirty and that is how they return -- bring the return so far. if this exceeds $22 billion, which is blackstone's biggest gathering 2007, i want
3:09 pm
to talk about the size. any idea where that will be going? they want to have a wider swap of companies. they see the environment be more conducive to this. jason: ultimately, if you have that much money, you have to do some big game hunting. one of the things we haven't seen come back since 2007 are really big deals. to 2007, youback had $30 billion deals that were run-of-the-mill. summer of 2007. jason: that's all we were seeing. hilton hotels, first data, toys "r" us, these were $10 billion, $15 billion, $20 billion deals. guys continue to billion funds, are we going to see leverage
3:10 pm
bias? , thank youon kelly so much for bringing us the story today. watch our new show "bloomberg yield" every day. he will be talking about global issues and events that directly affect the debt markets. catch it every friday right here. scarlet: coming up, women making major strides when it comes to atf. the passiveft investing is creating a new breed of female investors on international women's day. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:11 pm
3:12 pm
oliver: this is bloomberg markets. in walk the talk, we
3:13 pm
talk about social changes that outpace corporate america's ability to adopt -- to adapt. looking at etf funds. while only one in five investment funds around the world a run by women, the rate is unchanged and a decade and and passive- investing is changing it around the edges. we cited that statistic a lot, how one in five investment funds around the world is run by women. >> the rate is 10% out of all the funds managed in the united states that are managed by women as opposed to 40% in singapore and 15% in mexico. the united states has a long way to go. improvegoing to regularly. just because of the number of women in senior positions in the passive industry. scarlet: so it will filter down
3:14 pm
eventually. along we talk about investing, there is passive investing and active investing. passive investing has been doing well, principally on the lower fees and it is easy to get in and out. it has to do more with the way and timing of the etf. it started in the late 1980's and early 90's come at a time when active investing one -- when active investing was booming. in.n jumped a lot of women who came into the industry in the late 1980's and early 1990's stayed and helped other women grow. and as the into -- as the industry grew, so did their careers. now a lot of women hold senior positions in the etf industry. oliver: with the rot -- scarlet:
3:15 pm
wes araiza passive investing, what are you hearing from these women in the etf world, whether their worlds are more prominent as well? elena: they are becoming more prominent. the etf is not a cookie-cutter industry. it requires a different set of skills. you go from passive investment to lower volatility investment to traditional investment. there is no hierarchy or trajectory as to what the etf industry will need. it is an up-and-coming industry. it's been around for 30 years. there is a lot of room for maneuvering and a lot of room for growth. scarlet: and a lot of room for creatively -- creativity. atf --particular makes atf more female inclusive. f more inclusive? elena: there is the notion that women think differently.
3:16 pm
women make investments differently. that is a known fact. en need someone to think outside the box. that's where women come in to play. now there are a lot of women those administrative funds who have become very successful fund managers and they advocate for regal desperate legal rights and not just women's rights -- for legal rights and not just women's rights. it's about people from all over the world. scarlet: of course, they advocate for each other as well. in your story, you write about how these women get together, they gather, fund raise together. talk about the camaraderie among these women in the etf industry. elena: it now has 2700 people from all across the world. they advocate for equal rights, but they also want to support each other.
3:17 pm
they want to have some really good networking done. they want to create opportunities for each other. that is a very big network of support. other industries in finance do not have that. that is where the active investment industry can get some inspiration from the etf industry. scarlet: in terms of just women investors overall, not just industry, ithe etf starts at the university level. elena: if starts at the school level. then god has scholarships for has of the -- vanguard scholarships for some of the talented students. some firms, like state street and charles schwab, they have some kind of programs that support students come inspiring students, helping lend internships and potentially jobs, some kind of support here. and then there are organizations like women etfs and women that
3:18 pm
invest, who have books and one-on-one talks with women, inspiring students are kids who are afraid to ask questions. they can ask those questions to all of those fund managers. i've talked to over 30 people. each of them say we are always welcome to answer any questions from any people. scarlet: all right. everyone is doing their part to ensure there is a deep and study pipeline. thank you so much. it is time for the bloomberg business flash. black rock, the third biggest stakeholder in toshiba, says about $46 million -- 46 million of its to shiva shares are owned by other. -- borrowed shares are used by short-sellers against the cup on a stock. speculation surging
3:19 pm
that it will be promoted in the tokyo bucket -- took a stock exchange or even be delisted. a .5%nk plans to sell stake -- sell 25% stake to arm. the transaction is separate from the 25 billion dollars that softbank plans to contribute to vision fund. an insurer inpen luxembourg to write business in the european economic area and switzerland after brexit. the strategic move comes after u.k. announcement that it will leave the eu zynga market in 2019. aig currently writes business in europe from a single insurer based in the k -- in the u.k.
3:20 pm
it has already started cutting staff. still ahead, options insight. shares near an all-time high, $274. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:21 pm
3:22 pm
oliver: this is bloomberg markets. scarlet: time now for options insight with the julie hyman. julie: joining me today is scott bauer at trading advantage. as the market has been moving sideways, volatility has ticks up a little bit. -- has ticked up a little bit.
3:23 pm
but the volatility is still suppressed. what is the event or the catalyst that is going to make it to back up -- make it tick bak uck up? scott: we seeing tweets coming out of the white house and oil plunging today. i don't know what it is at this point. based on this sideways movement that we have seen since the big rally last week and with the vix up, this is setting the market of for the next move higher in the marketplace. there is so much complacency. there's really no panic to buy protection. that weally signifies are building this base probably for the next move higher. julie: on the flipside, are you seeing any significant call
3:24 pm
buying, for example, on the s&p? are there people not buying protection, but buying things that will continue to run? scott: yeah. i'm really not seeing significant call buying. the we are not seeing the put buying either. the ratios are near the bottom level. there's not a lot of activity, not a lot of all in my now. again, i think the market is surveying, taking in what happened last, maybe on the sidelines ahead of the fed announcement next week and make the next move higher in my opinion. julie: i want to talk about your trade of the day on ulta beauty, the chain of beauty stores across the u.s. stocks have been mixed following its earnings report. the you are betting on the downside of that makes -- that mix. what are the signs you're looking at? scott: i'm looking for history to repeat itself. the last few earnings, the stock has taken big declines. that has been on fairly decent
3:25 pm
news. then we see the stopper cover. last quarter, they announced a 70% cut. that is a number that will be difficult for them to match again. , we are short of that really at risk for a downside move. that being said, if we get the downside move and the market is -$17 movet about a $16 priced in, i would be a buyer at $2.55. that's why am looking to buy a put spread on the downside. really targeting that downside 257.5. about if we get them up to the downside and we get a down below the moving averages is down there, around 255 or so -- i want to remove my position to the upside. but i'm looking for history to repeat itself on the earnings announcement and look for the downside move. julie: we will be watching ulta
3:26 pm
on the earnings. thanks. great to talk to you always. scarlet: still ahead, we are getting political with investing. theirnvestors have put money where their mouth is when it comes to obamacare. what did they do? this is bloomberg. ♪ deepally a
3:27 pm
3:28 pm
3:29 pm
the u.n. human rights chief says he is dismayed by donald trump's attempt to intimidate or undermine journalists and judges. he's also concerned about the impact of mr. trump's travel ban. speaking today at a human rights council session in geneva, he cited a litany of human rights concerns worldwide, including what he called "chilling in
3:30 pm
difference among some leaders in the european union." donald took his closing in on a second term. says tush government sk supports the domestic opposition. his two and a half year term ends may 31. an eu summitt -- is set to elect the new president tomorrow. philip hammond said the uk's economy will grow faster this year than previously

24 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on