tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg March 14, 2017 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT
this is the european close on bloomberg markets. ♪ mark: we will take you from san francisco to london and cover stories out of washington, germany and iceland. uk's prime minister is set to begin the formal brexit process, may telling lawmakers the bill would receive -- vonnie: the u.s. fed begins its -- begins its tomb -- two day meeting. we will take you to iceland for the currency weakens for a second day as the country ends a eight-year capital console regime that control regime.
-- control regime. house speaker paul ryan is set benot speak -- not considering any major changes to the house care -- gop health care bill as it stands. showed the jump in the uninsured that was expected. expecting that, that kind of jump in uninsured and house speaker paul ryan not expect -- not considering any major changes. mark: 27 eu members without the key -- without the u.k. set to look at june 20 for a meeting to authorize brexit talks. the u.k. may have to wait until june. so signals the eu, fascinating as we discussed when theresa may is likely to trigger article 15 -- article 50. day.e down for the first
oil companies are falling down by 1.6%. saudi arabia's oil output gaining in february over january levels. falling as down, much as 8/10 of 1%, the biggest drop since february -- in february. prime minister may cannot trigger brexit. she is on target to trigger it by the end of the month. game thate guessing takes place. has a 115 call for the second quarter, as does hsbc and rbc.
investor confidence survey rising less than it -- less than anticipated. political uncertainty weighing on europe's biggest economy, ahead of the dutch election, and the french election, rising risks causing uncertainty among investors. predicted to pick up in the rest of 2017, as slumping factory orders in january highlight the risk to the outlook for the economy. while shares of european companies have been shooting up this year, the euro stocks 50 climbing to a 15 month high on friday, wages on dividends have been lagging behind. futures betting on the euro stocks 50 index payout for trading at the lowest level since january the 20 -- january relative to the benchmark. this is what this chart tells us dividendsncludes --
could be at risk if marine le pen wins france's presidential election. julie: still looking negative in the u.s., but not as negative as earlier. companies like nike and walmart are helping limit the losses in the dow even as the s&p and nasdaq fall further. i want to show you some of the movers we have not hit on. , a of them is money gram money transfer company that is now the subject of a takeover battle. by 24% at the moment after he got a competing bid from a company called euronet worldwide. kansas,it is based in not a european company at all and those shares are up by about 1%. money gram had gotten a bid from alibaba and this offer from euro
that is 15% higher. higher.et is 15% in the deal arena we are looking at citrix systems. these shares spiked on reports that it had hired advisers to look into a possible sale. scherzer coming down today as analysts are saying that the company's week forecast could put a cap on any kind of offer. we will be continuing to watch that situation. oil continues to be a big mover after saudi arabia said it was trimming its oil production cut a plan -- cut up plan. that is not supposed to be see gate but shares are apparently but as well -- seagate, shares are apparently down as well. -- is according to eu
officials, that would erode the time for minister may has to land a deal. be well, she has landed a victory, element approving her brexit bill, her saying that is en route to royal approval. >> we remain on track with a timetable i set out to its months ago. i will return to this house before the end of this month to notify when i have only triggered article 50 and begun the process through which the united kingdom will leave the european union. mark: let's get over to westminster. interesting developments. looking at that june 20 meeting to authorize brexit talks. that is a long gap. that is a couple of months. : it is interesting because we heard that the eu would
likely respond within 48 hours of theresa may triggering article 50. if may washat, but to trigger article 50 by the end of this month, we could see a meeting called by may with other eu countries. that signal of june is interesting, but in terms of when theresa may is likely to trickle article 50 -- trigger article 50 as she stays committed to that timeline of triggering it by the end of this month. she was not any more specific than that, but bloomberg has been told that the end of the month is still on track and one official said that the most likely dates are between march 27 and march 30. there are a number of things happening then, the dutch elections tomorrow, the scottish national party conference on
march 17 and the celebration of the anniversary of the eu founding treaty on march 25, which theresa may does not want to get in the way of. march 26 is a sunday, 31st parliament goes into recess. as you said, three's amazing she is expecting royal assent for her bill in the coming days which would form it into law and this bill is going through unchanged. with noing through amendments because the house of commons rejected the amendment proposed by the house of lords. ink: starting brexit talks june would allow the eu to move on from the potential banana skin that is different -- french residential election. the other constitutional headache that prime minister may faces is potentially another or noth referendum, because today in parliament,
which he spoke in the house of commons, she almost dismissed the idea. -- when she spoke in the house of commons, she almost dismissed the idea. what we heard yesterday was from the first minister, saying she will next week asked permission for the second referendum. theresa may does need to give her permission for this. back in september 2014 with the first referendum, the scots voted 55 to 45 to remain in the u k, but a lot has changed since then, not least of course brexit because scotland voted to remain in the eu and nicola sturgeon has said that has led to a democratic deficit. in terms of a timeline of when we might get this second independence referendum, we have heard that nicolas sturgeon is looking between the fall of 2018 and the spring of 2019.
if everything goes to plan and article 50 is triggered at the end of march and we get these two years of talks, theresa may is going to find herself in the final months of negotiating brexit with also having to deal with an independence referendum for scotland. if you wanted in a sense of the uncertainty this is causing, look at sterling. an eight week low in this session, and we have been hearing calls. and analyst at deutsche bank said sterling could fall much further from where it is. cehic atra westminster. let's get more from scotland's first minister, joining us earlier. they discussed the potential for a scottish referendum and the future for the country in the european union. >> what you will find is over the next few months, a very distinct perspective will open
up for scotland. you will be able to see how scotland can secure this position within the european economic area and then we will have a friendly reception across europe. scotland has many friends in europe. the u.k. has none left and this is a big transformation. in 2014, i could not even get the proposal. a total difference, in attitude toward scotland because people across europe know that scotland is basically here european and are exasperated with the government in london which is pursuing such a reckless brexit. >> what the tell you about whether scotland would join the euro? >> it was private discussions. union is in the european but not in the euro.
are, you have to be an exchange-rate mechanism for two years before you can even apply to join the euro and begin the exchange-rate mechanism is a voluntary act which is why sweden is not to the euro and that would apply to scotland and nine other countries. >> you would not expect to have to join the single currency. >> correct. >> would it be full membership or transitional? >> let's see how this emerges. the logic of having the referendum on the timescale -- geon outlined is to matter theing next few months and i am saddened that the negotiations about scotland will be a good deal easier than the negotiations in london and .rexit
the former first minister of scotland with bloomberg, earlier. vonnie: let's check in on the "first word news." >> white house budget chief mick mulvaney says the congressional budget office's appraisal of the republican health care plan is wrong. will then he said he does not trust the cbo's prediction that 14 million americans will lose their health care insurance in the next year under the republican legislation. paul van also said the cbo was wrong in its predictions of coverage under obamacare. a republican aide said that even with the cbo analysis, house speaker paul ryan's office is not considering any major changes to the repeal and replace bill. he asked that the house leadership was expecting the cbo score to show that less people would be covered. french presidential candidate francois fillon has been charged
with misusing funds according to a prosecutor. investigators were looking into whether he gave his family fake jobs as parliamentary aides. is standing down, the elementary committee says that she did not read the standards required for the role. lawmakers were concerned that notadmitted she did disclose that her brother works at barclays which the central bank regulates. she was hired as the chief operating officer in 2013. in the northeastern u.s., the dividing line between snow and a wintry mix has moved inland. that means there may be less now than expected, but there may be more of a chance of icing. a blizzard warning has been canceled for new york, but is still in effect for areas to the north and west. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts. this is bloomberg.
vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am vonnie quinn. mark: and i mark barton in london. roughly 13 minutes away from the end of the tuesday session in europe. iceland has been bouncing around a bit, the country ending its eight-year capital control regime. countries,izens, pension funds now have full access to the global capital market, ending a long struggle
to resurrect the economy after its worst recession in more than three decades. joining us now is benedict your hansen -- is benedict your johansen --nedict johannsesson. volatility rising against the dollar and the euro. i am not comfortable, but we have in the past eight years. after the crash in 2008, we were devalued by 15%, but it has been crawling back -- 50%, that it has been crawling back and is back to approximately its former strength. mark: you would have thought that the moves on capital pressure, butease
the currency is appreciating today. what is going on? >> it is hard to say. iceland is a very small country, so small movements may have some influence. today, small fluctuations are something that we are very used to. is it: is -- mark: possible that the currency could keep increasing because of record tourist arrival, which of course your nation is experiencing right now, boosting the economy. >> that is true. been --what has been been the main reason for the economy gaining strength is the tourism boom. krona rise inhe strength in the past eight
months. i think lifting capital controls to stop this trend. like you said yesterday, the by three orvalued 4 -- 3% or 4%. mark: are you worried that the economy could overheat? >> we are trying to take steps against that, by increasing the government surplus from 1% to 1.5% of gdp. has keptal bank interest rates quite high. they are now at about 5% which is much higher than most european countries. mark: does that mean there is a need for the central bank --
does that mean there is a need or a possibility the central bank could cut rates from the current 5%, maybe to 4.75%? is that a way to deter hot money? >> i would hope so. i would hope they would reduce interest rates, somewhat. i have no influence over it, but there have been a number of factors in the right direction. no disputes in the labor market, at the moment. placee a government in and we don't have the capital controls anymore. they might reduce the rate. mark: what about the future of monetary policy? a full float or a controlled float? >> we have a full float,
although we do have some precautionary measures, still intact. -- andn some remnants some remnants still in place. when will they be able to walk away? who have beenose here for eight years or so? mark: the 90 billion krona from those investors. >> they will be able to take the offer by the central bank of ,utting 137.50 for the euro which is 20% higher than the normal exchange rate on friday. mark: has that figure come down because that is what's remaining. >> i don't know what has happened since saturday.
about half had accepted the offer on saturday. as we started with the crisis, let's and with it. could 2008 happen again -- and with it -- end with it. could 2008 happen again? >> you should never say never, we are in much better shape. we have currency reserves that we could never dream of, before. the banks are much smaller than they were in 2008. we are not dreaming of being a international banking superpower as we were, then, so i think that type of experience, hopefully we will not experience in the next few years at least. mark: benedict johansen -- benedict johannes and --
the noticeable one, they worst performer, down by 1.8% as crude declines on that report from saudi arabia. food and beverage best-performing industry groups, what a heavy week in central banks we have. sterling one month implied volatility, a lovely chart going back to 2014, taking in the two big referendums. there is the big brexit referendum just before the saw oneum last year, we week implied volatility rise to an eight year high on june 14. in the run-up to the scottish referendum in 2014, implied volatility rose to a then four-year high. the referendum to showing you what referendums can do to pound volatility. we are getting used to political risk in this country. initical risk on the radar
the eurozone and it will be front and center with the dutch election. we have not seen the political risk premium in the spread like we have seen in the german and french spread. we have come down from the two-year high we saw in the middle of february, but we have been nowhere near the height and level we have seen with the difference between the french and the germans 10 year. it brings it on to tomorrow's, to the dutch election. no party is set to win more than a fifth of the seats in the lower house. a multiparty coalition is needed. every major party has said they will not work with the freedom party leader. and french company weighing an offer for rwe's german renewable energy utility.
this is according to people engie up byhares in 4.3%. rwe put the company off last year. 51%?t reduce its stake to vonnie: we are looking at some movers here, but they are not movers until tomorrow. a big move for the dollar index and the yen and the 10 year yield. markets are repricing rate hikes, right up to 100%. let's see what happens all of those asset classes. , globalke a look at gmm macro movers and see the g10 area, not having much luck. canada suffering a little bit.
the british pound and the yen. yields, you can see that the united states is the most interesting. 3.17 on that third year. there is a line of resistance. let's take a look at oil in more depth. abigail doolittle has that. another down day because oil is down seven days in a row, the longest losing streak since january 2016. a sharp like lower, this morning. -- the saudi selling opec they have reversed some of their output cut, so investors are seeing this bearish league -- bearishly. lots of pressures on oil. energy is the worst sector for the nasdaq. well.p 500 and the dow as
big e&p names down. oil services stock is down. lots of red. , we could be ahead for oil talked about the 200 day moving average. this is oil in relation to the moving average over the last year. last couple of times that oil has dipped down, it found support for we are looking at a pretty bearish flight. welooks pretty solid and have this congestion that appears to be breaking to the downside, suggesting we could see oil trade closer to $42 a barrel. that does sound bearish and it would be a decline for oil. let's put it in more of a macro perspective. barrel,holds that $40 a
this is a long-term chart of oil in white with the energy etf in orange, going back to 1999. the blue bars represent major opec cuts and after those major production cuts we have seen big gains. we do see more of a pullback in oil and the xle, it would be fitting to some of the wavering in the of trends, but nonetheless uptrends. long-term,pear to be medium-term bullish. minister theresa may's green light to trigger article 50 sending sterling falling, one of the -- it has fallen 19% versus the dollar since the referendum. interestingly, the move came in the european trading, not in asian trading.
it was almost delayed. >> we have to think of the moves we have seen in the past 24 hours as a continuation of a move we have seen since the beginning of february. the dollar isnst trading at 126 and we have come not been a-- it is big move since the flash crash or the massive moves we saw after the referendum. it has been day after day, a half percent here or there. a dovish bank of england in ,ebruary, a more hawkish fed but also a slight turn in the sterling data and the u.k. data and it is -- it has become softer and this move has been a culmination of those factors. mark: throw into the mix inclement weather in the the fedt u.s. and just
sitting on our hands. >> we are waiting for the fed, so the move we have seen today and earlier has been very much a function of those things. vonnie: what about the asset classes that are not directly affected but are secondarily ?ffected what should we be looking for in terms of those? >> what we need to do is look at what the fed is going to say about the path of interest rates. tomorrow's route is pretty much nailed on and what are they going to do in the coming six months? the market is moving toward the fed dot plot they put forth in december, so we have about 2.5 hikes priced. does the fed change those dots or ratchet them higher or keep them the same, and what is the market reaction? when it comes to the trickle-down, it will be interesting to watch what
equities do. equities have a little bit, but let's see what the follow-through is, tomorrow. vonnie: so much going on in the new administration. >> that is the other big thing, the fed is only one side of that story and we have to see what is going to come out of washington, what's going to come from the administration. details,arting to get that there is a feeling that investors want to see more so they can make longer-term stiff -- longer-term decisions based upon that. room.the elephant in the you have to say the meeting has been overshadowed by events in the last few hours. >> it is not great timing for the bank of england. they have had some of their actions said -- since the referendum questioned. this is not something to throw into the mix for a central bank that has had some questioning of what it has been doing.
she will be voting at the meeting and given that she has resigned her position, that seems strange to a lot of people. mark: mark carney has been under the cut from all sides and especially from that committee. as you have said, it will be -- in recent times, carney did suggest the data might turn. you said it might just be turning a little bit for the worse. >> he did give us that warning, earlier in the year and that is starting to come to bear. they might've gotten the timing wrong, but the prognosis may end up being correct. we got that move in the lower index and in subsequent days, but trading and arrange sense, --
it depends on what the fed's prognosis is, going forward, the move tomorrow has been well anticipated by the markets and we have seen that move already and it now comes down to what to the dots do and what is the fed prognosis. vonnie: at we found out that theresa may can trigger article but weever she wants, did not see a drop, mostly it was priced in. think the triggering of article 50 is something the market has known about for some time. she has always said it will be sometime in march and that timetable is still very much in place and it is when we get a big surprise that the market will move and i think the potential for that could be in the fed prognosis, going forward. mark: thank you, richard jones, market strategist with bloomberg markets live.
starting tomorrow, the coverage of the fed decision, right here on bloomberg. vonnie: we will be leaving everyone into it -- leading everyone into it. let's check in on the "first word news." >> senator rand paul is urging house leaders to abandon what he calls obamacare lite. he said it is a bad law and they cannot pass. here's lawmakers to vote on free market solutions. his comments follow that report by the congressional budget office that estimated 14 million americans could lose health coverage by next year under the republican repeal and replace plan. the u.n. high commissioner for human rights describes syria as quote, a torture chamber and says the conflict there is the worst man-made disaster the earth has seen since world war ii. it was said the country has been a place of quote, savage were an
injustice -- savage horror and injustice. saudi arabia has reversed about a third of the oil production cuts it made in january. the saudi's told opec they cut more than 10 million barrels a day last month. they are still cutting output by more than is required by the cartels agreement. 24 oil producers agreed to cut production to try to clear the crude surplus. the northeastern united states is being hammered by a storm that could leave over a foot and a half of snow in some places. a blizzard warning has been canceled for new york city, but it still in effect for areas to the north and west. airlines have canceled more than 5000 flights. aboveground subway service was shut down, so was bus service in new jersey and parts of connecticut. day.l news 24 hours a this is bloomberg.
in cash this year, alone. they have deep pockets. they are looking at lining up $90 million to spend on a film called bright, the biggest ever real push into films because the first film has lowered in a big talent, will smith. this will be there big furay into films. this is one of 30 that they've got on the slate. they also have one with told us will -- tilde swinson and brad pitt. clearly, this is a key push. vonnie: how does this beat out amazon and other houses that may not be traditional studios that are breaking into this world? >> can they beat them out or take a leaf out of their book? amazon has done it so well, already winning is actor for their film they pushed over,
manchester by the sea. they played a different game, allowing the films that amazon has backed to go into the theaters in the cinemas before they start streaming them on amazon prime. the problem with netflix, the reason for makers in hollywood have not adopted netflix is because they refuse to do that. they say we want our films streaming immediately, we will not let you have a run of it in terms of theaters, first. this is the circle they have to square. the way they are doing it is by throwing money at it and the worrying in big talent and offering millions of subscribers. the numbers is what is attractive. they have also been making some big tires. comediesehind the ted who also helped push the breakup film will be coming on board.
he will be in charge of getting the talent and getting hollywood wanting to start to bring their films the netflix. mark: it is going to make 30 original films a year, that is bigger than most major hollywood studios. it is making a big shift, from admittedly a very successful tv campaign, house of cards to name just one. but you have step, the sense that if anyone could do it, that looks good. >> certainly with the cash to splash. this is where they have already tried to show their worth. they have bought many a film, crouching tiger hidden dragon, a sequel, audiences love it. they have not won awards and they have not got the oscars lining up to give them the votes, but so far, the audiences have come to them. that is much as they well -- not as much as they watch television. we are all addicted to house of
cards or chef table, but they want to start to draw attention to the films that they have on cap, the money they are will -- on tap, the money they are willing to spend. i'm sure the subscribers will come beating down there door. vonnie: thank you for that. mark: time for the bloomberg business flash, a look at the biggest business stories. metlife is teaming up with crystalline company for disability coverage aimed at higher paid workers at financial firms. metlife plans to provide as much a $600,000 in annual benefits with no individual medical underwriting. such asany says firms hedge funds and mutual funds have been targeted for coverage to higher earning employees. bank of america is likely to
choose dublin from its european union base if the u.k. loses access to the single market according to one of the bank's top executives in germany. boa has not made a final decision. some of london jobs will be moved to frankfurt, the dread, luxembourg and amsterdam -- madrid, luxembourg and amsterdam. coming up, the road ahead for ducati. this is bloomberg. ♪
want to appeal to long-term drivers as well as younger customers. it is part of our bloomberg pursuits perspective. >> on one side, it is developing motorcycles that are more suitable for people that are getting with higher age. the motorcycles are safer, more comfortable and even easier to ride and even easier to control. wet is something on which are working strongly. on the other hand, developing products that will be appealing for the millennials and for the younger generation. >> will we ever get to a world in which autonomous motorcycles are a possibility? >> i think yes. the technology is developing quickly. there is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when. i am not sure ducati will come
into this environment because to connie is about entertaining people. it's not about moving people from point a to point b. people,ant to entertain you have to let people have fun on the motorcycle. you can't have fun if you are not driving the motorcycle. >> can you have fun on a electric motorcycle? >> definitely yes. the electric platform can be a platform on which you can have fun, even at the current stage of technology. i'm not sure if we are ready to get into the market with a competitive product, especially in terms of weight and range. >> you are ready to get into the v4 market. you have been producing for years and years. when can consumers by a ducati v4?4 -- buy a ducati >> it was something we decided when we got into the figure of
how incredible is a platform -- in ald develop we want toati style, bring our platform to the customer. we are developing that. it is too early to say when it will be hitting the market. >> how about this season? moto gp. lorenzo win? >> it is very difficult and competitive. many riders having a strong pace. -- our main target is to be faster. mark: out thanks to matt miller and ducati's chief executive. for more stories and interviews
like that, check out pursuits, your destination for the finest ends in life -- finest things in life. take a look at what happened at the end of today's european equity session. stocks down the first day and five, ahead of the big big week for global central banks. sterling falling as much as 9/10 of 1%. the biggest drop since february. prime minister theresa may can down trigger brexit. when will she trigger brexit? the first centerpiece of the political calendar and the eurozone, the dutch elections. bloomberg continues. ♪
hikearket prices in a rate as the fed starts its meeting in washington but the question is will the central bank accelerates timetable for raising rates later this year? tosident trump's plan replace a obamacare would result in 24 million people losing their insurance but it would slash the deficit by $337 billion, so how likely is the bill to pass and what would it mean for the economy? we will ask robert reischauer. and president trump is asked affected to take a trip to detroit. the congressional budget office released its core of the