tv Best Of Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg March 17, 2017 7:00pm-8:01pm EDT
democratic route between turkey and other lands escalated. president erdogan called the dutch fascists. >> you can stop our foreign ministers playing all you want. -- plane all you want. about diplomacy. we will evaluate all of these accordingly. .hey do not know politics they are so shaky and cowardly. >> erdogan's relations with the eu turning for the worst. for more we spoke to alastair campbell. >> i think it is complicated. there's lots of stuff going on. happened, itt has probably explains trump and brexit, the financial crisis
happened. a lot of people felt those who caused it are just carrying on regardless, and they have paid a price. the may be some truth in that. what politicians like trump have brexit and ae referendum is the ability to exploit anger and turn it into the reason and fact no longer becomes what drives you. it is anger and emotion. >> why do you think the labour party has been unable to tap into that as much? >> that is a good question. they labour party in a sense is not managed to adapt to the changes that have gone on. ishave elected a leader who very much about looking backwards rather than looking forward to a different set of politics. it is very difficult to be in
politics now. i think that if you look at and trump,ike frexit you look at the arguments, it is hard to work out why did that happen? the answer is,t a lot are about emotion and feeling. people having a sense of something that they want and can't quite get. things and trump did said things that and most campaigns, for most countries, he would have been finished. he won because he was tapping in to the emotions and anger of a certain section of the population that he needed to get him over the line. this thing about anger is difficult to deal with. that is what he's doing. that is why the dutch made the decision they made, they are trying to counter this populism with welders.
it complicates stuff. it is a global thing. thelso coincides with decline in deference for political leaders anyway. oft has had the effect people looking for these strongman leaders. erdogan is striving on this. a lot of jealousy. putin has been able to get control of his country. >> we are going to talk about trump in a second. we can't have you on without asking about scotland. i'm talking about the potential for another scottish referendum on independence. be another vote. where'd you see that going? are all sorts of unintended consequences of brexit. i will put my cards on the
table. i'm opposed to brexit and i think it should be stopped. consequences affect the entire makeup of the united kingdom with scotland and ireland. at the economic case, for independence, it probably has gotten even weaker since the last referendum. that might not be the deciding factor. i was born in england but i'm scottish. my family is scottish. passionately in favor of the united kingdom. i'm also passionately in favor -- of being in the night a kingdom. england has voted to come out. that has changed the dynamics. i think she is right. i think there will be a second referendum. in any big boat you
cannot predict what is going to happen. brexit has put the future of the united kingdom at risk. the same and ireland. nobody has explained how can you can have the u.k., northern ireland, then becomes a land border. yet they are saying this can be done without bringing back border controls which would be a disaster. >> countries to hear your thoughts about trump's relationship with the media specifically. you have plenty of experience. how would you characterize his first relationship with u.s. journalists? >> i don't think it is just about the u.s.. i thought it was interesting. there was a crackdown in the media in cambodia. their defense was, trump is attacking the media. the president of america is a global leader. i can't decide whether it is a really thought through strategy,
which is designed to undermine every other source of information and opinion so his tweets and him doing his bits with the media press conference become what people listened to and relate to. ithe has blundered into through the nature of the campaign that he fought. it's an interesting thing. i had some really tough exchanges with parts of our media. he has taken it to a completely different level. if your headline had been the economy is trying -- tanking, it is fake news. you are not reporting something he doesn't want to hear, you are lying. that is a different game. steve annan saying the media has to understand we're going to hit them every day. that is something people are
going to have to get used to. i do think it is dangerous. it is not that far removed from what erdogan has done. what happens to journalists who are far less democratic than here. >> if you were in downing street what would you advise theresa may in terms of the timing of triggering article 50? >> i'm not in downing street. i'm not advising theresa may. taking,se that she is which few people voted for is going to be a catastrophe. any opportunity i have will be to say you've got to think of how you reach a position where you can allow the british public to have another look at this. regardless of when she does it, we are setting a train. two years of the most complicated negotiation any
prime minister has had to engage in at a time when the rest of the european union is thinking these guys are messing around so much. it's going to be very tough. she has chosen that path. i don't really know why. regardless of the cost of the economy. >> very quickly, what are the chances the u.k. does a full brexit? >> i think the chances are very high. the prime minister is determined to get this hard brexit. i think it is going to be terrible. >> president trump won praise from saudi arabia. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> you are watching the best of bloomberg markets middle east. president trump one praise from saudi arabia. went as far advisor as saying the talks could mark and historic turning point. executive editor for the middle east and north africa. extremelye is glowing. i think it reflects a sense of relief that you have in saudi onbia and the wider golf having the administration. they understand their concerns a bit more. points thatthe sore the saudi's felt like they had with the obama administration. they reference the muslim brotherhood. still percolating. they also reference the issue of the muslim ban, they say they do
not feel this is a ban on all muslims or attack against islam. more an internal matter of maintaining internal security. good point. up a including iran, as you mentioned, what did they say about the nuclear deal? , they thinkted out the nuclear deal as it is now is willomething they think maintain peace in the region. that it is dangerous. they were happy that president trump agreed with them on iran's region.n move in the this meeting of minds between trump and saudi
arabia on the iran deal which they never thought was a great deal. trump may clear that he didn't agree with it. >> you are staying with us. i want to bring in our guest for this segment. the director and partner at global associates. thank you for joining us. we have been talking about the language the saudi's are using to describe trump, saying he is a true friend and has lent support to his wall idea. what exactly are the saudi's hoping to get out of the u.s.? many people in the region are --py to see obama back obama's back. it's too early to say which direction it is going to take that many signs are more positive than negative. there are issues that need to be sorted out but overall the relations are positive.
more positive than the obama administration. trump'srtant thing is stance on iran. this particular issue as the number one priority as well as dealing with islamist extremists rather than muslims. going to fight against isis. affect theshould not overwhelming majority of muslims in the arab world. things obviously look positive. there has to be a lot of overlap between trump and the u.s. arab allies. that continuous dialogue is important to ensure the relationships not only stay where they are but hopefully improve. statemente in the there was only one line about economic policy. that is very much what the crown
prince is about. the transformation of the kingdom. where'd you see the opportunities now for american companies with saudi investment coming into the u.s. or american companies investing in saudi arabia that may be before wasn't there? >> i think it is a key thing that that has to be increasing the attractiveness to get american and foreign investors. the saudi government is working on that. investments and other fields, the saudi market is a huge market potentially. in terms of industries, other sectors. there would be a lot of opportunities for the americans .o invest the saudi's have a lot of investors.
>> you're watching the best of bloomberg markets middle east. shares surged the highest level since november 2009. >> this bike in the investment bank came after the chairman said he was in merger talks with a bigger entity. more from philippe they. >> this has been the focus of a lot of speculation. year, they by the major stake, they have been
seeing costs, they are going to make it big again as it used to be in the past. now it is just, it has been a wild. they were saying they would buy assets here. iny announced two companies negotiations to buy right now. the chairman of the company gave an interview to a local media vehicle saying they are about to merger the company. it could be an acquisition. it's not clear. people are just coming up with all kinds of names that may come next. >> this is the big thing investors have been looking for. evidence of more m&a deals. do we expect more on the way? >> we definitely should.
said lastar when he month they had a press conference to tell investors in the market more of what they were seeing for the company in 2017. ,e mentioned acquisitions egypt, saudi arabia are on the radar for schwab. it would not be surprising to see this company coming with news within a few weeks and another rally with these stocks. it was 10 times higher than the 30 day average. it shows people are interested. projected growth of 7.5%. hideo opiate is expected to remain -- you the opiate is theiopia is expected to remain africa's
fastest-growing country. >> expert performance is going revenue in a wide terms of foreign-exchange. one of therently largest industrial parks. we believe this is a short-term problem. >> let's talk about the asian infrastructure investment. this is going to be one of the main ways of getting funding in this part of the world in the future. what role can you play? aib, jp has requested membership. be a member and
the second round. it is a country that has invested heavily in infrastructure. we use multiple sources with multilateral international organizations. and also commercial platforms. willat specific projects they help with? >> the main forecast is energy and railways, highways and airports. transportation. it is under construction. -- builte commissioned with $12 million. one of the top three largest
been desperate to curb the countries and during love for gold. imports have heard the ruby -- the ruby. the controversial ban on high denomination now seems to have. explain why the earlier program didn't work? >> the earlier program had problems in terms of the amount of gold that people had to deposit. now they have reduced the amount of gold you can deposit with the banks. another issue was getting the infrastructure in place. that was another challenge the government had to face in their buyingaking purchase.
>> you are watching the best of bloomberg markets middle east. borrowers are selling bonds at an unprecedented pace. bond sales were above $100 billion this year ahead of the federal reserve rate hike. we spoke to someone at templeton investments. >> one has to recognize emerging markets in general are beginning to pursue more orthodox policies. we had a rebounding commodities. you see growth numbers improving generally speaking across the board. most of them -- many of them have the appropriate policy
framework to deal with the risks they are facing. i'm not so sure why one has to be persistently negative. there's a lot going for them. their policy framework is arguably as compelling if not more compelling than what we are seeing in europe or the u.s.. >> we have had a bumper year for gulf.sales in th the roadshow just finished last week. we are waiting for pricing. given the argument you just , where do you think pricing could come in? >> we should categorize kuwait and saudi arabia as an emerging market. aa typee highly rated credits which have strong fundamentals from a credit point of view. they have a cumulative reserves
north of their gdp. they are not in the same expectation of emerging markets. they are definitely benefiting from the demand for yield globally. from the demand of emerging market papers. it's a unique space often overlooked. getting that we are this issuance is playing to the further development of the region's financial market. it is good for investors. we've never really focused on building are fixed income markets here. this pace of issuance continues to be at this magnitude, close to 50 billion this year. it is establishing the region as a serious player. it would betion, very strong. they are likely in the facility
of w prices. because thisppens would be the sixth member of the gcc. it would be for the first time where you have all six members of the gcc with bonds outstanding. it's another important milestone and we are looking forward to it. >> i want to ask you and pick up on your point, we have the gcc economy. short-term,dering, i know this just started, is this the right time to talk about oversupply and what that might do to push up yields? >> not for the gcc. most of the bad news was emerging in the beginning of last year. this time last year, with oil 20's, people not
feeling the reform agenda was being announced taken seriously, all of that created a negative environment. when we look at things today oil prices are more stable. despite the volatility it is safe to say the downside risk remains diminished significantly. then you look at the reform agenda, the structural reform they have been able to put through. the outfit remains very constructive. if you look at it on a relative basis it is attractive. commoditiest about and oil and gas on emerging markets indices, or global credit and high-yield investment, the direct or exposure you get to oil and gas is much higher.
most of the gcc oil and gas industries are in government hands. there's little direct exposure when you invest in the bond market. when they invest here they are not getting direct exposure to oil and gas. there is zero correlation. you are betting on the pharmacy framework, which on a relative basis remain some of the strongest in the world. the debt has doubled but it is still at 22% for the region. there is little argument against buying these credits today. >> coming up, oil has been on a wild ride as opec and france cut. we ask where they see prices going. ♪
>> welcome back to the best of bloomberg markets middle east. oil has had a roller coaster ride on data from the u.s.. it raised oil production back above 10 million barrels. cots itg a third of the introduced in january. more from anthony. >> it was differing information coming out. investors were reading different things. was thateadline we saw the saudi's increased production in february. opec is looking to cut production as a whole. those are merely held in the u.s. and europe. the saudi said they went even
a day.0 million barrels that was more than they needed to take. so they could get that production off the market. they were up over 10 million. we see saudi's increasing. the studies were below the level they had set for themselves. it was the saudi's have the lifting that did help opec meet or come close to meeting those targets. seeing producers looking downstream for alternative revenue. how is it playing out now? >> as we have seen with a lot of , as oiled oil companies fell they were able to look to trading or refining to support profit. the gulf oil producers who were
reliant on crude oil sales are looking downstream to refining. to diversify their economies. we've seen 1.4 million barrels of refining capacity added since 2015. there are additional qualities in the next couple of years. that's going to focus on gasoline and diesel. as they export huge amounts of crude, they were still importing transport fuels. as those economies are getting fuels toey want those supply be national economies and the export. they are going to be out there competing with asian refiners looking for new markets. that is going to weigh on margins in the coming years.
now, we were just talking about oil. i know you keep an eye on it. let me ask you the tough question. was about keeping a floor under the oil price and we have wti, does that mean opec has failed? >> we don't think opec has failed. i don't think it was a surprise to anyone. our view is oil will remain lower for longer. this scope performs remain in play. it's not really about oil anymore. it's about the government's ability to diversify away from oil. unless you get an agreement where they are part of it i don't think supply is going to go anywhere soon. longer term that will depend on global demand growth and whether
the cut's you have seen will impact oil production going forward. in the meantime we don't think oil is going anywhere. buterhaps it was a failure if they do see the prospect of that rising, and we are not going to extend the agreement for another six months, what message would that send to the market in terms of the future of the oil price that you need? production. if we see a lower-priced does that take more shale off of the market? >> i don't think there will be an end to this deal. they will leave it up to supply and demand. it will be oil prices go back down again. falls back inon the u.s.. reduce even the
lower level of oil prices. you might have the longer-term plan come into play where production slows down and that balances itself out. i don't think that is an oil swing producer in the market at the moment. can control the oil price basically. that probably makes break even oil prices more important when it comes to investing in the region. who has the lowest break even? >> it is good you mention that. one of our topics is kuwait. lowest budget breakeven. spending levels remain well below its gcc. it is one of the key markets to keep an eye on. this is a market where fiscally
they are very comfortable. you might think they have some capital spending at some growth to that economy. you are talking about the markets here. the dollar likely going to be what you expect on an first-rate rises. that would effectively make oil more expensive for people that are not getting dollars. that may put some additional pressures on the markets here. how do you see the markets reacting to a rise in the dollar price? perhaps they are at the interest rate that is not right for the economies. >> it is one of our key assumptions for this year. thehink an economy like aviation hub could be the most impacted because it benefits from a law from emerging
markets. there might be an impact. we think the market will suffer intoless foreign inflows dubai specifically. i think gcc governments will react by raising rates as well. again, low e.m. correlations are very off. we like markets like kuwait or egypt where the dollar dynamic is important. >> one of the most exciting stories in both oil markets and the equity market here is saudi ronco. you said it might be worth no it might be worth no more than 1.5 trillion which would be below the basic 2
trillion estimate. walk us through the idea. conference and-1 did a survey of the questions people are interested in. there has been a lot of chatter about how much is it worth. obviously this is not my area of expertise but i think it will depend on the tax level saudi arabia will have. form.so what shape or answer thatrly to but all of these changes will be important determining the valuation. >> we have been hearing for years about the countries here trying to develop bond markets and get more foreign capital to help finance. you mention some of those were getting squeezed. that n is a way
to do that. with the interest rate format changing, how do you see markets reacting to that? do you see them bringing in more? which markets are you looking at? assumption, we think they are here to stay in the medium-term. attractive for a lot of people to invest in these markets. especially the gcc are much higher than the developed markets. 7%, i think it is an attractive region to invest in. , cairo's modelxt of egypt with a ski slope and high-end luxury brands. will be shoppers come? this is bloomberg.
>> you are watching the best of bloomberg markets middle east. egypt inflation has accelerated 30%. among the highest emerging markets. we asked how rising prices are affecting his business. now forve been in egypt almost 20 years. it's not the first time that we go through a situation like this. egypt has a lot to offer. times, ing through think we are at the end. we start to see the end of the tunnel. 2016 and 2017n egypt has had a good progress on some important structural reforms.
inflation is absolutely true. 2017 thising year, in will offset itself. i think that the important structural reforms that have been taken place, although it took some time, we would have liked things to come faster, it steps in the right direction. you are talking about cutting consolidation,al floating the currency. these are tough steps. markets, financial looking at the floating issuance the egyptian government did in january, it was a sign of confidence. the egyptian economy is starting to show some positive signs. like ours in egypt
are extremely important. we are one of the largest investors in the sector. this has an impact on the economy. >> you are on the ground in egypt. give us some color on what you are seeing with consumer demand. our domestic consumers recovering? >> the reality is there is still growth and consumer demand. there's a change in the pattern of consumption impacted by the last two years. this also has been impacted by the change in the offering in the market. primarily driven by the lack of foreign currency. demand isan consumer still good.
we are seeing more and more tourism coming in. positive. are >> when you look at the region and potential areas for growth, what catches your eye? we look very closely on opportunities. we still believe there is a lot of growth. we are growing in the region, getting deeper in our local markets. so, there is still growth in our current markets. >> best of bloomberg markets middle east. a busier week ahead. ofwill speak with the head mmc.
>> coming up on "bloomberg best ," the stories that shaped the weekend business around the world. , decisions.ecisions the world was on watch for surprises as central banks made interest rate decisions. >> we learn to janet yellen is the perpetual dove. ondutch voters put populism cause while the u.s. comes down hard on hackers. and bruising battles rage on capitol hill. >> this to me is a very shortsighted budget. >> our president said this from