Skip to main content

tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  March 23, 2017 3:30pm-5:01pm EDT

3:30 pm
>> it's time now for news. british authorities identified 53-year-old khalid masood as a man who carried out yesterday's deadly attack on westminster bridge and the grounds to parliament. citizens to urge .emain strong and on alert >> we're going to carry on. cooperation with allies across europe and across the wall that we share intelligence. to make sure that all of us are kept as safe as we possibly can. we're reminding ourselves not just london, new york, paris, brussels, other major cities being the targets of evil twisted individuals trying to destroy our way of life and to shared value. minority leader chuck
3:31 pm
schumer said he'll vote against gorsuch. senator schumer's announcement caseyinutes after bob he'll vote against gorsuch's confirmation. schumer and casey were the first to announce what direction they'll take after gorsuch survived two days of before the senate judiciary committee with no stumbles. president trump pick to lead the exchanges and has noion jay clayton he speck plans to dismantle plans the dodd-frank act. including goldman sachs, told members of the histe banking committee work will be a strength should he win confirmation to lead wall regulator.p france defense ministers drawing
3:32 pm
criticism from the socialist party for throwing support presidentialndent candidate. wonalist party candidate the primary in january but has sense slipped in the polls. survey has emmanuel tied le pin. i'm mark crumptop this is bloomberg. >> live from bloomberg headquarters in new york. >> we're 30 minutes from the thee of trading here in u.s. >> u.s. stocks erasing earlier
3:33 pm
treasury and dollars are mixed. >> we is, "what'd you miss?." >> bloomberg has confirmed the on theill not vote healthcare bill today. anticipated news conference has been postponed indefinitely. got mexican tasked managing relationship with the house. in california lawmakers are pushing state pension funds to divest from ecompanies that could be involved in the president's of the u.s. mexico wall. california phil ting of san francisco in the next hour. >> for more on this breaking news, i want to bring in bloomberg sahil kapur on capitol hill. no vote tonight? vote tonight joe. we heard moments ago, i heard from a senior republican sources informed there will be no vote tonight. this is a huge set back for speaker paul ryan and president
3:34 pm
trump. their first big initiative. they've been barreling to this a few monthsst for years. several they simply do not have the votes. >> we do though that the trump presented their final offer to the freedom caucus this morning. was it in that final offer that didn't pass muster? would not sure i characterize it as a final word. the official word from them and including from the freedom caucus negotiations are ongoing. a lengthyaving meeting on capitol hill. was in the offer was to repeal the regulations in the affordable care act that conservatives dislike and want to see gone. lowerelieve it will costs. insurance companies to cover 11 benefits in every sell.nce policy that they conservatives want this gone. they have all sorts of problems thise senate getting
3:35 pm
through. there was an appetite on the right flank to do that. seems like there's no agreement on that. it's not clear that will get votes. >> sahil, given the delay to the vote, what the time line look any vote and more importantly, what will happen in makeays ahead that would passage any more likely than it was today? >> is the million dollar question that republican leaders have been trying to figure out. holding own possibility for a vote tomorrow. the republican leadership like to get this done this week. energy among constituent is antithetical to this bill. way to do will be to get 215 or 216 votes. that number byof or 10.e between 5
3:36 pm
they are getting squeezed, toservatives want to move the right. there are moderates unhappy with cuts to med medicaid.and you noted this is a set back for the white house and for the white house speaker. is anyone talking about the possibility of moving tax reform and discussion of ahead of resolving healthcare bill first? >> i can tell you there are on tax reformk who love to see that happen. that is not an option republican leadership has considered. is a promise they've made for the last seven years. to dispense with it now after failed attempt will be a bit nonstarter.cal i wouldn't expect that to happen soon. they need to try this. and see it fail. they would need try to get seether with the senate to
3:37 pm
if there's compromise. movinghings have way of there'sckly when negotiating and back room deals. this is a real set back for republican leadership. >> very important point. it's delayed it's not dead yet. coming outws started last night that one of the approaches to getting the boardm caucus people on was therapy going to re-- remove some of the minimum requirements plans.urance there was debate about whether this could pass the senate, rules parliamentarian rules. they allowed to do this with votes. that's the story there? that's a confusing idea most knee deep ine in congressional -- >> that is a problem that republican leaders have been considering. this is the reason they didn't remove that essential health benefit piece that they moved committee.
3:38 pm
they are not confident they can get that through what's called the bird rule. provision that run through this reconciliation process that they using to avoid filibuster, directly related to tax and spending. these are regulatory issues. there's a good chance based on the way the bill came out and leadership knows n won't pass muster. repealg they add these of these regulations, there's always the danger that it gets stripped out the senate and right back to snare one. this is just another layer of the challenges that republicans facing. >> great update. bloomberg national political reporter. look where the major average stand. market action on these headlines. >> there is market action on these headlines. the healthcare bill vote has been delayed moments ago these averages have been slightly higher . now lower.
3:39 pm
the s&p 500 just seconds ago had been session lows. little bit disappointment around the uncertainty this bill, the vote has been delayed. it calls into the trade could under reversal. here the losses are greater. healthcare xl related sectors. right around the time the headlines starting to surface, the xlv took a leg lower. not a huge drop. it does tell us that investors are pretty uncertain here. chart aboutto that the trade. btv, thise a look at is out of the election the thing to take into account on this side it's risk on. out of the election, we have stocks rallying, we have the index railing,r we have oil rallying that growth off shown byd sold the ten year yield in yellow trading higher . right around at
3:40 pm
end of february, started to s&p 500reverse then the s&p then the dollar and now the ten year yield started to drop confirming a bit of of risk off picture. trade that the idea economy by presidentated trump's policies. the healthcare bill is not put any sort of fiscal stimulus on hold. this trade does seem to be unraveling. just to confirm what we're seeing here, still this risk off picture. ontake a look at the havens the day. the ten year yield is unchanged. before band bonds have been trading lower and higher now. not a lot of certainty. higher for yen eighth day in a row. that happenedime since 2011. then the gold down just slightly. overall there is a sense of
3:41 pm
uncertainty. and risk off. allll right we'll keep that in mind. thank you so much. coming up we'll have exclusive videgaray, he's foreign minister in charges of managing mexico's relationship the u.s. from new york, this is bloomberg.
3:42 pm
3:43 pm
>> earlier today from the mexico conference, bloomberg spoke with summers ask if he see the bill.ssage to
3:44 pm
>> the reform package in all forms will mean less coverage, more americans without higherinsurance, premiums for the rest of us. thatll end up paying for medical care when it comes through emergency rooms. less competitiveness for american business because they're going to end up having premiums to cover the costs. bad for the poor. burdening on the middle class and undermining competitiveness. way to go.the wrong >> in other words, it's bad for the american economy? >> this would be a substantial the american economy over time. ways in which would damage lower income people have lessthen
3:45 pm
spending power. because of the way it would burdens to employers who be less able to compete. a policy that have moral problems, it is a policy pragmatic problems for american competitiveness. see any argument in favor of it. arguments against .bamacare >> let's go to the president who plan toing on the house delay the vote on healthcare bill. has inflicted great pain. many of you were forced to buy health insurance on the exchanges. you experienced a rise in premiums and a dramatic loss in options. you just take a look what's happened to the costs. it's incredible. you look what's going on with
3:46 pm
deductibles, they're through the roof. you don't have it. hopefully you'll never have to use it. or won't have that injury sickness. you know the problem. it's put a lot of the trucking businesses out of business. is pretty tough. in addition, many union drivers plans taxedve their to pay beamier obama -- obamacare. for ae been against it long period of time. trucking companies that are considered large employers have to offer government mandated health insurance. you have the mandate that just for them.rk forced to do things that you don't want to do. toay the house is voting disasterd replace the known as obamacare. we'll see what happens. close vote. after we repeal and replace obamacare, it's close not because obamacare because it's good, it's close because it's politics. everybody knows it's no good. only politics. a great bill.
3:47 pm
i think we have a very good chance. politics. we're going to do everything we truckers stayre busy, moving american goods made companies and workers. big difference out there now. don't you think? big difference. we will rewrite our broken tax our terrible trade deals. we'll eliminate job killing regulations where you guys are to regulations and we'll free it up. it's going to be freed. back to business. we'll make sure america's infrastructure is the best in the world. right now it's probably the it's been in 40 years. i have friends in your business. they say trucking from los to new york and back it's very tough on the truck. that way withbe the condition of the roads and highways. i look forward to hearing from you. we'll have long talk. i'm not going to make it too long. votes.to get
3:48 pm
we're going to talk far little while. i'm going to go back to business. i appreciate you all being here. maybe we'll go around the table and yourduce yourself company real fast. be excited byll that. let's go. i'm ceo of dominion operate 8000we andtors, 25,000 trailers $3 billion in sale. employees >> that's fantastic >> that was president trump saying that he needs to get back votes.ng to court this comes that the house will be voting tonight on healthcare bill. sahil kapur points out, that dead.t mean the bill is they don't have the necessary votes. >> still trying to get the votes. trump saypresident
3:49 pm
there about the importance of passing this bill and other bill to ease regulation on truckers. still no vote. >> let's let's go to "what'd you miss?." sparking concern in mexico. that negotiations will be in entangled with the presidential election. from get more analysis erik who join us. >> thank you so much. i'm delighted to bloomberg radio worldwide. foreignegaray is the secretary of mexico. >> thank you >> it's a pleasure to be here. thisere the point man for country's negotiations with the trump administration. it's quite a wait on your shoulders. how does it feel? >> it's important. it's something we're working hard at. it's certainly a new -- something new. i don't think only for mexico.
3:50 pm
i think for the rest of the well.as we're making good progress. we've had some very strong with the new administration. it's very fluid. everydays literally and every week. the next few years relationship dipped. a lot of things -- it's a complex relationship. good faith.ng in >> sitting right here mr. secretary, do you believe as andsaid before that mexico united states could have a new free trade deal by the end of 2017? >> i don't know about a precise date. it's a clear win-win for both and canada aso well. this is a trilateral deal. negotiations start
3:51 pm
during the summer. given this priority for three country,he it should happen rather soon. committing to a date. we should commit strongly to a good outcome. >> the commerce secretary mr. wilbur ross, said that he timing is probably more likely to be that the towards end starts of 2017. 12 months.ssibly for 1 is that reasonable timetable? not what we heard from secretary ross or from the white house. have you heard? on whenl depends government sends notice to congress. will start talks between canada, mexico and the u.s. over theappens soon
3:52 pm
next days or week, we expect to starting trade talks at some point during the summer. >> this country has a coming upal election next year, june 2018. negotiations drag on to that month or perhaps even later, does it not become a matter of fact if you will? presidential election here becomes a referendum on mexico's relationship with the and free trade as a concept? >> i think the u.s. relationship of the important part environment in mexico. as we approach an election cycle. that's something that goes beyond trade. mexico feelsat about the u.s. and that's i important.so we work closely in good faith towards getting a good deal fording and good
3:53 pm
both sides. >> let's talk about that. you framed it -- you hope to come out of this with is a win-win. need to haveu chiefed coming out of this fortiation to call a win mexico? what counts as a win? objectives.recise in the negotiation, if want to be such, you got -- successful, understand what you want. the president laid out objectives. one is protection of mexicans in the u.s. security and migration. others is about trade. weapon want the free trade to remain free trade. can it be improved. it can be improved. a 20-year-old agreement. many things can be done better. thoselearned a lot over 20 years. it's got to remain a free trade where investments are protected. that investors in mexico and
3:54 pm
u.s. and canada are protected. we includeant that things that didn't exist when created like electronic commerce. economyrs from mexican liketer a recent reforms energy, telecommunication. >> provisions does mexico nafta as itve under exists today that you would be say give up? what do you prepare to put on the table? >> it's no the about giving up anything. it's about improving. instance, --for that's the challenge. approache way we'll it. this is not a game. value fort creating three parties and long standing relationship. we can do that. >> what about anything you're prepared to put on the table? nation.o is a sovereign
3:55 pm
nobody will make decisions about mexico other than mexicans. i give an example. very specific. some information about the u.s. sending into mexico migrants that were not from mexico. it's not for the u.s. to decide who comes into mexico. only mexicans decide those are red lines. it's important those are clear. like a verys reasonable position. many people wonder perhaps with good reason, just how much mexico has? you're negotiating, you mention negotiating with canada. you're negotiating principalically with the united states. that's where the majorities of the trade. we're talking about the world largest economy. we're talking about the last super power. what leverage do you have? >> it's not about leverage. it's about what's important.
3:56 pm
jobs in the u.s. -- those jobs very states, go to mexico. in such awhen you're tight relationship, both party other.verage with each the question is, can you pull your leverage without hurting yourself? probably not. we're not approaching this in sense. it should be a constructive process. sensitivities that you mentioned about corn production and politically to a republican administration, those seem to be the statements or reflected in the statements that the trump administration and the himself have made.
3:57 pm
there.s take a moment what we heard the past few weeks about trade from the trump administration. from secretary ross from peter opportunity. opportunity to make north america a very competitive region, a manufacturing power house. things have to change in nafta. that? believe >> i believe that. that's what i hear. calledpresident has nafta a terrible deal. would you call a terrible deal? >> no. it's been a good deal for the three countries. improved. be we can make it better for america, better for mexico. about what might happen if no deal is reached. the formerrs,
3:58 pm
treasury secretary, told me here earlier today described the future for america without nafta in dire terms. a beachhead for the chinese. it could be a strategic and gift to china. create condition for president.to become would you describe the future similar dire in terms? >> i think that we have to for all scenarios. if what is on the table is something that is not good for mexico, mexico will step away nafta. a certainly -- there will be future without that.
3:59 pm
that?uld we want to do if we can have a trade deal that can be much improved of the three countries. of course, you have to plan for scenarios. it's so strong of a case before getting better nafta and banking the three sides creating jobs and well paid jobs. that's the case. clear, if common sense doesn't prevail, it isn't a win-win, in other words, the win -- doesn't accrue enough for mexico, are you prepared to step back? >> absolutely. >> quite a future to stare down? tremendousa opportunity. north america can be the most world.tive region in the we can be an unparalleled manufacturing power house. we want tot's what build. mexico and jobs in
4:00 pm
the u.s. that wean opportunity have.what is the market telling? telling us that these countries are talking to each other. they are working. they are working hard to get a good understanding and a good deal. i think that is what the market reflects. the market prices in many things. the environment is more constructed than what it was. as wekets are closing speak, so if i may ask you to sit tight for just one moment, i'm going to ask scarlet fu to bring everybody up to speed and we will return to our conversation with mexican foreign secretary luis videgaray . scarlet: we want to give everyone a heads up that stocks have closed for the day and they are little changed. the s&p 500 losing .1%. they had given up some of their gains in the last hour of
4:01 pm
trading as a got headlines that the house will not vote on the health care bill tonight. joe: no vote tonight but we still have comments from mark meadows, head of the freedom caucus indicating an inclination to continue working on the deal. nobody is saying this is dead. dealer of having at tomorrow, a vote scheduled perhaps for tomorrow. nothing is dead yet. we should mention health-care stocks were among the losers in the s&p 500. if you look at the industry groups, they were the biggest losers. are percentage basis, they only off 5.33 percent. they have been swinging around today based on news related to the health care bill. we also want to welcome our viewers on twitter joining us at this hour as they always do every day through digital media. let's toss things back to erik isatzker in a couple who
4:02 pm
talking with the mexican foreign minister. we continue the conversation with mr. luis videgaray. wilbur ross, the commerce secretary suggested continuing on the subject of the peso. was some kind of stabilization mechanism that should be built in to the new version of nafta if that is what it is called. for free treatment -- free trade agreement. is there a need for such a thing? sec. videgaray: we are open to that. , wehere is a free market don't induce any bias into the peso. absolutely, we are very open to that. erik: and the governor of your central bank, i was told earlier today that he believes the peso remains undervalued. you sure that point of view? sec. videgaray: i share his opinion on every matter.
4:03 pm
i think certainly. erik: by the same amount? by 10%. sec. videgaray: i will follow his lead on the amount. erik: given that he is the governor of the central bank. mr. secretary, you have been to the white house how many times since inauguration day? sec. videgaray: a few times. erik: you met with president trump personally? sec. videgaray: i met with the white house senior staff. posture havend of they communicated to you on behalf of the president? sec. videgaray: first of all, that mexico is very important. that they want to accomplish something important. that strengthens the partnership. sometimes, that is not the headline in the news. but that is clear what is being conveyed. that is a republic. it is a very strong willingness to work together and work through our differences.
4:04 pm
erik: you believe that? .ec. videgaray: yeah i think they understand mexico's import and for the u.s.. in the best interest of the u.s. to have a good, robust, and stable relationship with mexico. me help everyone. mexicans, american citizens of the world, understand how you reconcile what you heard and what you believe to be true from the trump administration with the things that mr. trump has said both on the campaign trail and since taking office. we -- sec. videgaray: what we have heard is a desire to change things on nafta. which we share. he clearly has a critical vision of nafta. we may not share that, but we think it is something that can be improved. we will work as long as it is a win-win. erik: you don't think it is mexico second or mexico third? every country:
4:05 pm
should put themselves first. that is the mandate from the people of the country. but for any country, that means having good, robust relationships with crucial allies and neighbors. erik: you have a good working relationship with eric kushner. -- jared kushner. sec. videgaray: i think he's a very smart person. somebody that i know. you put thate relationship to use to mexico positive antigenic go -- to mexico's advantage. is a positive: it relationship defined by institution and governance. this is not about a particular individual. somebody in the white house or a foreign minister in mexico. this was about institutions and about creating a good understanding on the overall
4:06 pm
topic. erik: but shouldn't the strength of that relationship he to your advantage? always having: somebody that you trust and you know. they can help with that communication. it will be institutions that will define before -- the future of this relationship. erik: tell me about the effort you are making with 11 other latin american nations with the united states and canada to put pressure on venezuelan president maduro. and his administration. sec. videgaray: we are concerned about the state of democracy in venezuela. we're working with many countries in latin america to to respectr message
4:07 pm
the sovereignty of venezuela. it will decide how to do things. the factncerned and that elections have been canceled, the powers of congress are now in doubt. and even political prisoners, that is something that should be addressed by venezuelans. it is something for them to address. but it is important that the international community raises a very clear voice. the objective? maduro is forced from office? sec. videgaray: the objective is very clear. democratic institutions to work the way they are supposed to in the constitution. it is not for anybody else. not for people in other capitals. disenfranchised, many of
4:08 pm
those. that is a basic claim and that is what we're working towards. erik: you are planning on issuing joint statement and a resolution by the american states. do you not need to act in terms as opposed to speak in terms like a strong man like president maduro understands? sec. videgaray: sending a strong message is a course of action, particularly a powerful one. -- a very powerful one, particularly when you look at the countries. a very powerful message and it is the right message at the right time. erik: what is the next step? sec. videgaray: that is for the organization to decide. have they clear and we position that it is absolutely insane with other countries. easy to takeo
4:09 pm
mexico's relationship with the united states. and for that matter, an adversarial terms, because of a we have seen transpire the last several months. where do you see the most common ground? where is the room for progress? creating value. understanding this is a relationship that can be a tremendous win-win for both of us. and seizing those opportunities. we have common causes around the world. we are working very closely. we continue to do that. the greatest opportunity is among results. erik: i want to thank you for spending this time with bloomberg television. we really appreciate it. we are delighted to be here in knoxville kulwicki mexican foreign secretary, mr. luis via go awry -- videgaray. greatreat -- scarlet: conversation with the minister
4:10 pm
-- secretary of foreign affairs. house republicans will not be voting on a health care bill. it has been postponed. they have come out with a statement saying that we are confident the bill will pass in the morning, ins that. the white house spokeswoman said the bill will pass in the morning and very confident that will happen as well. day, they have been trying to figure out what is going to happen. it was anticipated a vote tonight. that will not happen. lastines crossing in the few minutes from the freedom caucus chair, representative mark meadows. he says i am still a no but trying to get to yes. of hard right republicans in the house of representatives really wanted to do as much dismantling as they possibly can. the white house made a good-faith effort. paul ryan is a difficult task. a are working hard. but still no. joe: headlines -- scarlet:
4:11 pm
headlines indicate as well as numbers, they are trying to get another 30 votes or 40 votes. that is what they will work on tonight in order for this vote to take place tomorrow morning. ae: we are now black with bloomberg reporter in d.c. covering the news. what is the latest? are we going to get a vote tomorrow? >> it is unclear there will be a vote tomorrow. we know the republican leadership lands to have a vote today which they have been planning for at least a week or two are canceled. there will be no vote today. negotiations are continuing between the white house and the freedom caucus. republican leadership essentially decided the president would be more likely to bring some of these hesitant -- right wingg republicans on board. they want to be on the page of republican leadership in congress. going to bey, it's
4:12 pm
him. so far, there is no deal. obstacles in the senate. they have a long road to go. to mention thet latest headlines from representative meadows that they want to get another 30 to 40 votes to turn to yes. if that is the case, how does that line up with the numbers they are of -- they have a earlier. >> what they are trying to do is trying to get the white house and republican leadership to agree to repeal some of the regulations and the affordable care act. that is going to be difficult because once you do that, you lose moderates on the other side. swing districts and moderate districts. this is not a symbolic vote for them. the high wire act they are running right now is that if you move to the right and repeal these regulations, how many moderates do you lose?
4:13 pm
if they don't start to bleed moderates and hold the center some people in the house freedom caucus and conservatives on the fence or oppose right now, that is a way to get it to the house but the high wire act is very difficult to do. things are a bit tenuous. republicans have consistently campaigned for the last seven years on repeal and replace and theoretically, they want to get to yes. joe: you talked about the challenge of appeasing the freedom caucus while not losing the moderates. how many moderates are there, really? ,ow many are thought to be theoretically, would go the other way if they started chipping away too much of these rejections? -- protections? >> there is a caucus with 40 to 50 members and not everyone's name is known. but those of the members that have somewhat a competitive battle in elections. at least that their distractions
4:14 pm
-- their districts where they elections.slamdunk most republicans only have to worry about a primary challenger. , they have change their stripes a bit. to where president trump is, they are not rabble-rousers. they don't like to draw attention to themselves. if you get to a place where you can't defend a vote, that is something difficult. health care is the perfect example of that. as the drama plays out, we want to bring in dani burger. --y, when we talk about dani, when we talk about the
4:15 pm
impact on the markets, stocks gave up some of their early gains. there is evidence wall street is looking at the headlines. i even had more than one person say to me that people love to blame the computers. rhythmsall out the digesting the headlines in making quick trades. there is that aspect. important to note that there has been some moves. it's difficult to make a case that this vote will be a catalyst. what traders and investors are fixated on are the progrowth policies like tax reform. unlike deregulation, that is what is important to the market here. it is a test to see that getting done. joe: i want to go to the bloomberg and look at the intraday action. 1:30an see it was around p.m. when the news first started coming out that it wasn't
4:16 pm
looking like there would be an easy deal today. this is pretty mild. we have to be honest. this is basically no selloff. and it's like 15 points. it's not that big. this seems to be this phenomenon reset these moments are you make that speech for congress that would be make or break. they just don't really seem to -- none of it seems to be getting exciting. the question is, is it optimism or complacency? dani: i do want to point out that there has been some turning underneath the market. pretty highns are right now. growth,we get earnings what do you do the academia keep trading sideways even though the news is positive?
4:17 pm
we have had defensive pick up in march. one really interesting thing to look at is how high tax and low tax companies have done and a low tax companies have been outperforming the high tax companies, the idea that of tax regulation gets put into place, the high tax companies will benefit. perhaps these recent market games have nothing to do it. itself, itt selling is all economic news we are trading on. talking about the market reaction of low tax and high tax companies. regardless, what does the calendar look like right now? >> for taxes, it is a little bit different. including house speaker ryan, they want to get this done by august. this is part of a 200 day agenda that the house has.
4:18 pm
they want to get to the senate and start working on tax reform. chairman brady says he wanted to get a bill out of this committee this spring. they have a and very different story. it will likely take the on august and not go as quickly as some people want it to. chairman of the finance committee, and majority leader mitch mcconnell has suggested it may not get done by august. they can handle one big issue at once. health care is that issue right now. any progress on taxes is a difficult proposition. scarlet: dani burger covers health care companies and markets overall. the white house says it is confident that the health bill will pass tomorrow morning. this is after the delay the vote for today. house speaker paul ryan delayed his news conference. the vote will not take place.
4:19 pm
they're looking for the bill the past tomorrow morning. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
4:20 pm
4:21 pm
scarlet: remember the dollar that was supposed to rise in 2017? the greenback has been under pressure. why is that? what is ahead for currency and gold? ask oh, your take on this is that the fed, when it comes to the markets, is really using the markets as a yardstick. they are not getting the same signals. >> great to be with you. i am in san francisco, by the way. behaving because
4:22 pm
the dollar has gone up four years in a row. it was always relative to what is being priced in. they might you closer. rates, janeto real yellen is behind and to contrast that with europe, there is talk and increase. i'm not suggesting everything is things come u.s., back to the middle. as that happens, i think the dollar will weaken going forward. the'm looking at a chart of .reakevens most p/e in january or in case of the two-year margin, it turned down the fall and oil prices.
4:23 pm
there was so much talk about reflation. >> that is usually what happens. you have a new administration come in, and higher real rates. andee the discussions today it's not so easy to pass reform. i do think that we may well get a fiscal stimulus of sorts. onyou get a fiscal stimulus the back of low unemployment, you get more inflation. quite likely, rates are not going to change that much. we're gradually going to price high-end inflation. and if you listen to janet yellen, she is so concerned if sheoing back to zero were to introduce a recession. she is waiting for the market to present the rate hike on the silver platter.
4:24 pm
staying behind the curve. scarlet: let's talk about stocks. no matter what happens, they either float or move higher. people say there can't be a bear market unless there is a recession. what happens and what could happen as a result? have tost -- >> i just turn on your program and someone makes the argument that you can't have a bear market without recession. it was significantly overstretched heading into the election. a market crash, you can have a severe downturn. remember this bull market lasted many years now. yes, i would agree historically, we have the bear market
4:25 pm
associated with the recession. you can have a problem. crash way, the 1987 happened because of liquidity failures. those days, the portfolio was fashionable. that's when you have the crash. they talked about flash pressures these days. there's so much one-sided this in the market. it doesn't take much to turn things around and it's quite encouraging to have the market reacts to some news. there will be an excuse to potentially have a selloff. as we have taken things to extreme. based on the so-called trump much tot won't take unwind that and potentially violently so. joe: i want your opinion on bonds because there are two interesting things. at the idea that perhaps with reflation, the great bond and bull market might finally come to an end. whether they are up or down, they provide an extraordinary
4:26 pm
hedge to equities. even at times when the stock part of the portfolio might not be doing well, the bond part is doing well. they really didn't see that much volatility. will bonds continue to play that kind of role for people on that those thatou go >> have been taking the least have been making the most money. take anything i tell you with a grain of salt because i'd been doing too much thinking, i suppose. when you think about where investors are in practice, they are tired of not having any yield. they do a lot of specialized products and direct lending. when you listen to the sales pitch, they are compelling. this and that. don't kid yourself. a lot of these things are high-yield products. you have a higher correlation to equities. i would very much doubt that
4:27 pm
most people have a traditional equity bond. the have not taken enough chips off the table on the equity side. if and when we do have a shock or selloff, i think most of the portfolios we have looked at are not properly diversified and prepared for profit centers. you doing anything, selling, buying, or holding as we try to get some visibility of the health care bill? >> we love that volatility is finally picking up. we tend to be happy folks. gold holding that we are happy with. it will be easier to diversify out there. and we have been paring back our neutral exposure to some things. a lot of things -- joe: got to run but we appreciate you coming on. president and cio of merck
4:28 pm
investments joining us from san francisco. ♪
4:29 pm
4:30 pm
mark: it is time for first word news. house republicans will not vote today on their embattled health care bill. the house of them planning to hold a vote today but a senior gop aide says that will be delayed. the move came hours after mark meadows, the chairman of the house freedom caucus said his group had not reached agreement following a white house meeting with president trump. wednesday's attacks on parliament and the westminster bridge will not deter the u.k. from participating in the global fight against terrorism. they spoke to bloomberg news today. we will carry on.
4:31 pm
intelligence to make sure that all of us are kept a safe as you possibly can. not just london, new york, orlando, paris. other major cities across the western world have been the targets of evil and twisted individuals trying to destroy our way of life and to attack our shared values. mark: the mayor says security will be a priority near brecht at negotiations. claims that the predecessor wiretapped his new york skyscraper. in an interview with time magazine, the president said wiretapping was". what i'm talking about is surveillance. mr. trump defended other statements that have been debunked including his claims that millions voted illegally in november's elections. the presidents concluded the interview with quoting, i guess
4:32 pm
i can be doing so badly because i'm president and you are not. former deputy minister. thousands accompanied the coffin as it made their way through the streets of london area. attendance over u.s. president bill clinton and try minister blair and former irish prime minister. they oversaw the u.s. need in belfast negotiations the clinched northern ireland island in 1998 peace accord. they decide tuesday at the age of 66. by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120. this is bloomberg. u.s. stocks closing little change. at the end of the day, it was pretty much after house republican voting on their health care bill. the trump administration to vote tomorrow morning.
4:33 pm
we have plenty of after-hours news to tell you about. the memory chip maker coming out with second-quarter numbers. it is not what is driving the stock and after-hours trading. higher than 9% because the outlook for this quarter is encouraging. is $5.6is up as much billion whereas before, analysts were looking somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 billion. gamestop, the retailer coming down hard in terms of the after-hours trade. as more than 8% after the earnings-per-share forecast trailed analysts estimates. comparable sales for the full year. also out with earnings after the dell, kb home's came in with revenues of $818.6 million. that is 10 million ahead of estimates.
4:34 pm
also one sent ahead of estimates. stock up 1.7% there. , net orders. the homebuilders have done well and spite of the rising environment. generally speaking, things seem to be looking good for the homebuilders. which is a good segue to the next segment. what did you miss? the recent rise in borrowing cost from the real estate market has been modded. the new home increase in february to a seven-month high. wants going on, let's bring in chief economist. jed joins us now from san francisco. thank you very much for joining us. you're doing interesting work looking at the geography of the housing market and where we're really seeing solid gains and where we are seeing housing tail off. what is the key story here. we see fromest news the bureau today is that
4:35 pm
population gains have been biggest in some of those outlying suburbs. big cities like atlanta, austin, and san antonio. when you add wage growth on top of that. it is stronger demand for housing. the nonmetro line, the red line where we see in the negative. it there population diminishing. scarlet: the suburban portions a come from a 60% of u.s. jobs. talk little bit about how the remaining 40% of jobs is distributed throughout the country.
4:36 pm
>> we see growth more than the rural areas. the rural areas are the places lagging most. the exception is rural areas where education levels are higher. these are expensive resort towns or small college towns. we're seeing growth there. but the rest of rural america has struggled. the other thing we have seen is that there are certain jobs that tend to be more concentrated in cities and tend to be concentrated in small towns and rural areas. agriculture is more likely to be in rural areas and small places. these are from the sectors they expect will shrink most over the next 10 years. ,urther good news for cities worse news for smaller places in the rural areas over the next decade. joe: basically every story comes back to politics somehow.
4:37 pm
you put it all together between education and rural series. a red/blue america story. ask the places we have seen swunger job growth have more toward clinton in 2016 dent toward obama in 2012. there is a strong relationship between how people vote and where jobs are at risk. jobs are more likely to be at in automation with places that are traditionally republican. the bluest places in the country include a lot of the big cities. a mix high-end professional services and personal services. there are harder to automate and less at risk.
4:38 pm
>> you have written about the decline in mobility. there are explanations of why that is. what makes the most sense to you. where people moving less frequent other states? >> we know a goes beyond demographics because the decline in mobility will true to a lot of different demographic groups. places a ways in which less different from each other than they are used to be in the past. was in the economy manufacturing. more of it was dependent on natural resources. on agriculture. they had to happen in a certain place. more and more of our economy now is in surfaces -- services and areas like nursing and education that can be found pretty much anywhere people live. for some people, the benefits to
4:39 pm
moving may not be as great as they used to. another challenge, of course, some of the most productive places in the u.s. where people might want to move to, costs are very high. places like the bay area, new york. in order to cool off. we have been talking about the big secular shift going on in housing. what is your read on the cyclical momentum in the housing market. there are concerns earlier in the year about rising rates. from your perspective, doesn't look like most of the tailwind we have seen remain in place? tight andry remains demand remains strong. we see job growth and wage growth. importantly, more of the millennial generation is aging into the years were home buying because more likely than it used to. the most common age among lineal's is 26. as they age, their homeownership rate will -- rate will go up.
4:40 pm
we really appreciate you coming on, jed cocoa, chief economist for indeed. leaderhouse majority eric cantor weighed in earlier on bloomberg tv saying that he sees too much government involvement in health care. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:41 pm
4:42 pm
joe: the house is not going to be voting on a health care bill tonight. it they are trying to wrangle the votes in the last hour. lots of extraordinary headlines. him talk in d.c.. about mayberlier they're being a vote tomorrow but even that is not guaranteed. the house freedom caucus chair
4:43 pm
saying they are trying to get to yes although he personally is a no. the situation, very fluid with the health care vote. they were trying to get a health care vote tonight and that is not happening. bloomberg's david gura spoke to former house majority leader eric cantor. he was asked if this version of the bill is in keeping with the promises the gop made. day, thisend of the is repealing obama care. it is shifting the direction. to prioritize bringing down the cost. more people can have access to it. you do that through free market mechanisms and consumer participated -- participation and getting the government out care systemhealth is.
4:44 pm
>> they have their say. why go about it this way? >> when you're in a situation thisthis and producing complex piece of legislation, having to take everybody's views and the consideration, there is a tendency for people to say, i want perfect. and this is how we should be doing it. a lot of people would say, fine. but in reality, you deal with what is before you. before you is this monstrosity of obama care that has created a huge presence of government in the health care situation. peel that back and take the first step is what this bill is about. andhave heard paul ryan others say and marsha blackburn indicate this is the first of a step of the next phase. secretary health and human services tom price will be there to implement the regulatory piece. there will be some follow-up
4:45 pm
legislative pieces. it doesn't happen all overnight. i sympathize with those that say it should but the reality is, you have a lot of evil whose health care is impacted by obamacare and trying to address a bridge to this. why push this through as quickly as republicans have? paul ryan says we're not, we have run cycle after cycle. you hear about the changes being proposed. was this legislation ready for prime time? >> absolutely. and as you rightly suggest, i criticized the leader for running across repeal bills 50 times when i was there. but what was missing that is what is in place now. there is a president in the white house that is going to sign this bill. a repeal bill. it is that sort of sense that wasn't there before. all the issues were certainly discussed. so what is going on now is not
4:46 pm
unlike so many other times in the legislative process really got to listen to folks, throwing: them, and take their input to come up with a final result. >> former house majority leader eric cantor earlier today. california lawmakers pushing to divest from companies that could be involved in the construction of the mexico border wall. we will be hearing from filtering of san francis o, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:47 pm
4:48 pm
scarlet: it is time now for the bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest stories in the news right now. credit suisse said to be considering a stock sale to raise more than $3 million -- $3
4:49 pm
billion according to people familiar with the matter. the fundraising round could happen sometime in the first half of the year. no final decision yet, but credit suisse has declined to comment. topping the list of italian banks borrowing. national lenders funding local anti-e.u. nominations across the block. they borroweds $251 billion since the operations program was launched in more than double what estimated. former disney ceo michael eisner in talks to require portsmouth football club, a soccer team in england's fourth division. they have a 70 day window to negotiate without outside interference. from wealthyforay foreign investors. it is the richest domestic competition. and that is your business flash update. let's turn now to the french presidential election. it: we haven't talked about
4:50 pm
a little bit lately. the have been interesting turns of events. i'm looking at eu go, your one-stop shop on the terminal for everything related to all it takes in the eu. it the top right always has these great charts showing the state of the election. this is the betting odds for the presidency. emanuel has been doing very well in the pulling and seems to have a good debate a couple nights ago. there is another chart we have here. this is digital tracking. how are the various candidates doing on social media? well on social media and le pen continues to be the number one on social media. most of them are trending up and this is another very important poll. this is the first round pulling and we see the blue line. surpassing the white line, even goinglong time, they were
4:51 pm
in the first round or losing the second. joe: you know about -- scarlet: you know about the danger of trusting those polls. joe: they could be complete nonsense. scarlet: we want to highlight something that affected whole foods. the footprint of the biggest natural grocers and what is obvious immediately is the loss of orange dots which indicates rocher, clearly a huge presence throughout the rust belt. trader joe's in yellow. locations spangled in the middle of the country. whole foods is purple. you see where trader joe's is, but it's kind of lost in their among trader joe's and kroger. reasons he of the says those days of double-digit growth is probably over. joe: everyone is doing the organic stuff these days. at less of a reason to go to
4:52 pm
whole foods. helping president trump build the border wall with mexico. it would require two of the biggest pension systems in the country to divest holdings in companies that when contracts involving the wall. one of the california state a similar members introduced a bill and joins us now. good to speak with you. give us a sense, first of all, of the genesis of the resist the wall act. did you come up with this idea or is this something proposed by constituents? >> yes, we had the idea. country, wehe wanted to make sure we would not that wouldymbol deter immigration or people wanting to come and be part of the california dream. the six the best economy in the world, we have job growth, and want to keep that moving. a big piece of our successes immigrants.
4:53 pm
joe: are you hoping it will discourage companies from bidding on wall projects in the first place? wax that is one piece of it but we want to make sure that california did not want to participate in the wall. over 70% of our residents do not approve of the wall. we don't want a wall built on our border and we don't want a single cent of california dollars going to it. scarlet: a spokeswoman told us that the fund can't comment on the bill because they haven't seen the bill yet. have you spoken with anyone since? be in communication with them. it is a process of amending the language. as soon as we have the method, we will be sharing it with them. we led the way. they said at that point to did not really matter but we saw that those were the ones that really helped lead the movement.
4:54 pm
we have seen similar divestment announcements related to companies in israel as part of their border technology. with that also an inspiration for this particular bill? the hugepiration was feeling of california being a state of immigrants. having an amazing culture of people all around the world. we didn't want to have a symbol that would deter immigration. we think they made a huge contribution in the state. california has had a checkered past about immigration. they were part of the chinese exclusion act, they participated in the japanese-american internment. we don't want to live to regret this moment in history. scarlet: one thing pointed out often is that california tested e on the leading edge of social and cultural changes that later sweep sweet the nation at large. illegal immigration. racial protests. climate change. funding for higher education.
4:55 pm
these are things california grappled with. having served in public office, what can you tell us about california's approach to addressing and resolving some of these challenges? what has california learned? california leads the way and that means that we face problems first. we see that the wall is coming to us probably sooner than other states. the feeling of our residents is very strong. they are very opposed to the wall and they don't want to have any part of it california has been a symbol not just to the rest of the country but to the entire world. it has been a symbol of prosperity and we want to continue to be that simple. scarlet: california status and remember phil ting. thank you very much. joe: what you need to know to gear up for tomorrow's trading day. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:56 pm
4:57 pm
scarlet: u.s. stocks give up some of their modest gains and little change after the house delayed voting on the health care bill sets take lace tomorrow according to the white house. joe: they were planning on doing it today. it didn't happen. maybe tomorrow. scarlet: in terms of what coming up, economic data tomorrow morning including durable goods at 8:30 a.m. in manufacturing and 9:45 a.m.
4:58 pm
joe: we could get a vote from the house on the american health care act tomorrow. no sure thing but we heard for the head of the house freedom caucus which is the largest contingents opposed to the current bill that they are still working on it. are presented of mark meadows saying he's trying to get to yes. the situation is fluid. you havecarlet: president robert kaplan speaking in chicago and st. louis fed president james bullard speaking at the economic club in memphis in the evening. that does it for "what you miss?" have a great evening. joe: this is bloomberg. ♪
4:59 pm
i'm alisa parenti and you're watching bloomberg technology. here is first word news. the white house is confident that the health care bill will pass tomorrow morning. at is after house republicans
5:00 pm
postponed a vote today, as they continue to turn holdouts around. if it passes tomorrow, it faces a tough fight in the senate. the vote would have been held on the seventh anniversary of former president obama's landmark legislative achievement. president obama said, america is stronger because of the affordable care act. he noted, 20 million americans gained coverage. chuck schumer says, he will vote against neil gorsuch's nomination to the u.s. supreme court, urging democrats to join him. this came after bob casey announced he will also vote against gorsuch. london mayor sadiq khan says attacks on the city will not deter u.k.'s participation on the global war on terror. he spoke at the bridge reopened and parliament resumed. after the attack, the attacker has been identified as collated massoud,

19 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on