tv Bloomberg Markets European Open Bloomberg March 24, 2017 2:30am-4:01am EDT
anna: welcome back. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." 6:30 here in london. this is soul and we have the dollar against the korean won almost entirely on the move. we were discussing how unusual that is for the korean currency to be entirely unmoved. you get the sense you are in a limbo day. matt: speaking of limbo, check out the kospi right now, just closing in south korea, down about 0.2%. the kospi has been in limbo as we talked about yesterday, just up, down, every day coming back to where it was the day before. right now trading at 2168.
it was 2157 at the beginning of the week. it has gained 11 points this week. anna: let's get some more details. nejra cehic joins us. nejra: good morning. asian markets seem to have not got the memo of caution we saw in the u.s. session. if we look at the msci asia-pacific index, trading higher, the topix recovering the slide on a weaker yen. 111.46. the house vote on the republican health care bill delayed today but this does have bigger implications not just on policy but on the trump trade as well. we could ask if the market is getting ahead of itself with the optimism today. the nikkei up 0.9%. gains in china 20. -- gains in china too. speaking of the dollar, snapping sixlongest losing streak in
years. if we look at dollar-yen, 111.45, the yen weakening for the first time in nine days. the bloomberg other index is still heading for a weekly decline. we have seen quite a bit of dollar weakness since the beginning of the year. just to dig a little deeper, it has been in a trading range recently for most of this year in fact and it has dropped below that support level. david writing on bloomberg, saying the risk of dollar-yen is on the downside after being in this range. is that the case? we've got more fed speakers today and some data out of the u.s. that could have some impact on this. finally, talking about oil, we are heading into a meeting the between opec and its allies. oil heading for a third weekly drop this month, weighed down by u.s. crude supplies. brent settling below the 200-day moving average. has come back above $40 a
barrel. the fact that it has hit this technical level is that calls for a little bit of a bounceback. anna: thanks very much. opec and non-opec producers are meeting in kuwait this weekend. they will be reviewing the impact of their output cuts and will assess if the curbs need to be extended. matt: yousef gamal el-din joins us from kuwait. what are the expectations going into this meeting? ef: there's a lot at stake as has always been the case. remarkable help oil prices have reversed gains. we are back at the same level we were at at the end of last year. going into this meeting, they will be evaluating the progress or lack thereof that they've made and one of the key factors is going to be compliance. if you look at what the iea is saying, they are saying
compliance has been relatively high. the issue appears to be with non-opec. russia and its allies, looking at 44% there. maybe as high as 64% according to one estimate in february. historic reality is that the fundamentals in the oil market have hardly changed. if anything they've gotten worse from an opec perspective. look at what is happening with libyan output. look at what is happening with u.s. crude inventories. bullet out on your bloomberg. it tells the story in simple terms. one line shows you how much oil there is in u.s. inventory and the other shows how much oil output opec has been up to. the u.s. crude inventories have countered the cuts from opec. the cruise bowls out there are not going to be looking for silverlight in's. neither is opec. anna: what might any kind of extension in the cuts by opec
look like, if that is what they decide they're going to do? yousef: that is the key. this is a meeting that is going to review the progress they've made and set it up for the decision in may, a decision as to whether they're going to extend for another six months. russia is going to be at the crux of those discussions. going into this, people were aying russia doesn't have track record of living up to its promises. trying to get them to compliance levels. if that doesn't really work, if the hard numbers out there continue to speak against these efforts, they have to refine their plan. what would a refinement look like? maybe iran will be asked to participate more. net could set up a very interesting conversation between the key powers. ultimately, they are facing a countdown. goldman sachs makes this very clear.
time is not in their interest. on, theer this drags more you are looking at unintended consequences. if you look at some of the notes from barclays, they are saying, don't worry too much about the drop. we will keep you posted. matt: thanks very much. yousef gamal el-din joining us from kuwait city, talking about oil. anna: we found the chart. this is the chart he was referring to, the moves in u.s. crude supplies and the opec daily production. the way the market is being held in limbo, now coming to the downside as a result of production in the united states versus cuts by opec. let's talk to kit juckes. this is the chart yousef was talking about. what are your expectations around the oil price? this matters on the global inflation story. kit: up a bit over the long-term. what opec are finding out is
squeezethe idea was to out the new producers in u.s. shale so the price could rise, it has not gone well on the back of the prices. i think they are in a difficult position now. choice but to go again in terms of limiting output to try to get the price blue line onhat your chart can't keep on going up. matt: u.s. crude supplies continue to rise. that doesn't help opec's gambit at all. how does this affect the inflation outlook? it is kind of a dud. after we saw inflation over 2% in europe, the headline number, it has come back down and the core isn't really moving. kit: everything in the inflation data comes back to the wage
growth numbers which aren't picking up either. if the only driver of global inflation, even at a point near full employment, where the output gap is very small, if the only inflation i get is a brief jump on the back of what oil prices are doing or some other commodity prices are doing, that is not fundamental, real, underlying inflation. matt: and central bankers will continue to look through that. that was kind of the phrase of the month last month. it looked like they may have capitulated a bit with the ecb hitting less dovish but they are not going to if that continues. kit: so we get back to a debate about, do i take away the extraordinary monetary policy that i've had postcrisis as opposed to, have i got some big new cycle? the fed is effectively saying, we have a long-term target for
where we think rates should get in nominal terms of 3%, which is below where we think nominal gdp growth is going to be. the ecb debate is no different. we don't need these absurd monetary policies anymore, would be the kind of -- matt: that is how schaeuble would put it. anna: we look at the difference between headline and core and decide whether investors are going to look through the headline increases, but will they be there in the future? not available in the database. we will try to put it in. this is the oil base effect already waning. will they be gone by may? kit: certainly by june. if you look at where we are in terms of that spike in june, there's a bit more of a lag through the gasoline and other things. currency effect for those of us in the rest of the world. u.k., with a big
fall is in the third quarter for autumn,d, by the fall, we won't have the same kind of base effect. if we don't get wage growth accelerating by then to 3% in the united states, then i think the inflation scare will start to fade. anna: i notice how you talk american to matt and british to me. very versatile. coming up, european leaders gather this weekend to celebrate the anniversary of the treaty of rome signing. but brexit and upcoming elections in europe may overshadow those festivities. we will look at the problems currently plaguing the block. this is bloomberg. ♪
looking at a live shot of new york city, waking up maybe, at least the traders looking into foreign markets at 2:43 a.m. here in london it is 6:43. let's get out there for the business flash. sophie? sophie: credit suisse is said to be considering selling stock valued at more than 3 billion swiss francs instead of raising capital by listing part of its swiss unit. a representative declined to comment. the bank said this morning that it has increased its bonus pool 6%, awarding ceo tidjane thiam 11 million francs for his first full year on the job. eric mindich, a one-time goldman sachs trader, is throwing in the towel on his $7 billion firm. mindich, whose capital management was among the biggest fund startups, is returning
client money after 13 years. the firm expects to return 40% of all investors' capital by next month. weres of china's huishan suspended after plummeting in hong kong. the crash wiped out about $4.2 billion in market value. short seller carson block said in december that the company is worth close to zero and questioned its profitability. accusations the were groundless. we will bring you an interview with carson block at midday u.k. time. that is your bloomberg business flash. thank you.na: e.u. leaders gather in italy's capital this weekend, celebrating the anniversary of the treaty of rome, the agreement signed which laid the foundation for the european union. the event will be overshadowed by brexit and upcoming elections as well asnd germany
italy's economic problems. we are pleased to be joined exclusively by the prime minister's junior minister for european affairs thomas sandro gozi. he joins us from rome. you've talked about brexit being a beautiful opportunity for the e.u. how would you like the e.u. to learn from brexit? e.u. toi would like the reaffirm its unity, its political well of deeper integration in some fields, such as the defense policy, social union, to develop a new investment policy, and also to improve its functioning within the european parliament. there are 73 seats that the brits are leaving. we should build up a real european politics. the more we are united, the better will be for us, but also
the better will be for a smooth negotiation, talking about the brexit negotiation. matt: what do you expect to achieve in rome? you've got the opportunity to meet with leaders from across europe. are you going to prepare for that brexit negotiation? sandro: no. this weekend we talk about our future together as 27. it is clear that the brexit will be a process. we want to relaunch the european process. as i was saying, developing a defense and security policy, developing a new social policy to counterbalance the approach which has been much a much focus only on consolidation, and also to reestablish links with the youth, fighting youth unemployment, and we want to say
that we must remain united, that the union is indivisible, that we must go ahead altogether whenever is possible, but when is necessary, a group of countries, a dynamic group, must go faster than the others, always leaving the door open for those who would like to join. this would be, in our hope, the first real political reaction of the european union after brexit and after that horrible year which was 2016, a year of divisions, a year of sharp contrast within the union, and we need to turn the page and we hope that tomorrow we will turn this page. anna: you hope that 2017 is better than 2016. what if that is not the case? what would a victory for le pen due to the euro and the e.u.? is it possible for the euro and the e.u. to survive if le pen
wins? sandro: no. i don't think so. wins, it is the end of the european union. it is the end of the eurozone. saying,oes what she's and i don't have many reasons to doubt that she would do what she's saying, so it is clear that the french elections are a key moment for the history of the european union and it is also clear that wouldn't be a future for the e.u. with marine le pen. five-star continues to gain strength in italy? is that also a threat to the european union? sandro: yes it is. it is certainly a threat to the eurozone. a referendum is the best way to pull the rise. how would be the situation if the five-star movement caused a referendum? how we would survive in the
financial markets with months of campaign on whether italy should remain in the eurozone or should leave? it is clear that it is a totally irresponsible movement. they are proving their inability to rule the rome capital city and it would be even worse if they add to get the power. but that will also depend on us. it will depend on how much we will be effective to push through the structural reform launched by the previous frenzy .overnment [indiscernible] with got time. we can make it. but it requires a strong commitment by all of us. matt: it does seem that the eurozone, the european union, is in quite a fragile situation in
2017. isn't it a time not to talk about allowing in other members but to really hunker down and look inward, maybe even whittle down the european union? sandro: no. i think that what we must do, after the rome declaration, is to ensure that we carry out those reforms which are in my view very much necessary, and the eurozone certainly needs to be reshaped. we need to make the euro governors much more effective. we need to strengthen the democratic control over the governance of the eurozone. and last but not least, we must give to the eurozone and investment capacity. from a set offt rules, some of them obsolete, to a new policy which combines the necessary effort for
consolidation together with a much stronger investment policy. we've seen that it is possible. we've seen that the time is right after the german elections. anna: can i ask you mark? you say this weekend is not about brexit conversations. it is about the meaning -- the remaining countries. brexit negotiations are on the horizon. the divorce bill will be the first matter under consideration. how is it calculated? billsjust adding up legal that the e.u. thinks the u.k. should pay or is it negotiable based on what the u.k. wants? sandro: no. u.k. is a member state. u.k. is going to be a member state until 2019. as a member state, u.k. is entitled to exercise its full rights, notably the decision-making process, but at
the same time u.k. is bound by its application. there is also financial obligations. there are figures which have calculated -- i cannot confirm whether it is really between 50 billion and 60 billion euro, but certainly that must be sorted out at the beginning of the negotiation together. is thespective from rome issue of e.u. citizens resident in u.k. based on the reciprocity approach concerning the u.k. residents in the european union. these are the key issues we must tackle at the beginning of the negotiation. anna: so that is what you want to tackle at the beginning. can i ask you about the attitude toward financial services? well one of the objectives be to weaken the city of london? sandro: no. our objective is neither to
banish nor to weaken, but it is clear that we have to start from the choice that the british prime minister has made. in her speech, she was very clear in wanting a hard brexit. hard brexit means being totally out of the single market and being totally out from the financial service passport. about the future relations between the city and the european union, it is all up to negotiation, but it is clear that we start from very far. this is not because of european choice. it is because of u.k. government choice. very legitimate one but something that make the distance even bigger. matt: is it possible to negotiate a new trade agreement with britain at the same time as you negotiate brexit or does brexit have to be negotiated first and then negotiations for trade follow?
sandro: if you want to have an organized negotiation, and this negotiation is going to be very complex, we have to start with brexit negotiation. we must negotiate the exit of the united kingdom. then you can have a second phase where the negotiations overlap. we will be at the end of the exit negotiation and at the same time we can start the new deals on trade and security. but certainly, the negotiations cannot the entire amount at the beginning of the process. anna: thank you very much. sandro gozi, minister for european affairs over in italy. quick word from kit juckes on the pound and where it ends. we are discussing brexit there. u.k. headline inflation back at the boe's goal. you are watching both the brexit conversation and the bank of england.
kit: brexit conversation, bank of england, and the economic data every day with trepidation when i listen to those kinds of comments. there's not much good economic news on the horizon. there's just been six months where the economic data have been a lot stronger than people expected them to be. there's a question of, is that going to continue? they were very good. the british like to shop. matt: send them to germany, please. which is the most important thing for you to watch? the boe or the brexit talks? kit: the brexit talks. the boe is a function of everything else. if the boe raises rates, it would support sterling short-term. the bottom line on this, is the economy trundling thomas slowing slowly, or worse? anna: kit juckes, thank you so
♪ bill delayed. republican leaders plan to vote on their embattled health care plan. investors await comes persuasion power. anna: selling stocks for 3 billion francs rather than taking part in its swiss unit public. celebrate 60ers years of unity while the u.k. prepares divorce players -- papers. oh -- opec members meet in kuwait. we are on the ground.
matt: welcome to bloomberg daybreak: europe our flagship morning show here in london. i am matt miller. anna: i am anna edwards. we have breaking news on the app or arrival to grab. the largest rival to uber in southeast asia. tiny to raise over one and have billion euros. this being led -- backed by softbank. it wasn't clear if the money was coming from softbank or the yet disclosed softbank vision fund. softbank wasn't immediately available to comment. --s according to people with familiar with the matter. center is one and have billion dollars in a new funding round. matt: let's look at where futures are pointing. about an hour from the open of european trading. down.e euro stoxx
ftse futures gaining, and cap futures down. very little movement today. the reason is we were expecting health care trump's overhaul yesterday. we didn't get it. congress pushed it forward to today. -- pushed back to today. traders have been essentially sitting on their hands. a lot of people see this as very important as an indicator to the power of donald trump to push through other legislation. more that is why we are fixated on capitol hill than we would normally be. but once we get through this vote, we end up talking about the same thing once it gets to the senate. this conversation about health care and other legislative items that the market cares more about. we will come to that. there it is, the dollar against the yen.
the moment today in the overnight markets, yen weakening but we have seen a different story in the last eight days. thefirst dropping 90's for yen. a haven flow increasing other recent sessions. the pound at 124.77. u.s. futures in there. pointing upside up 2/10 of 1%. opec descends on kuwait and we are live on the ground. andrage of that meeting nymex up. matt: if you are trading china, you're looking to the shanghai composite closing up 6/10 of 1%. about two thirds of 1%. from 32.37 last friday to -- 3269. again of 32 points for the shanghai composite index. in the u.k., the terror
attack on london has claimed a aurth victim which police say 75-year-old man has died of his injuries. thousands gathered in the square to remember those killed. the world have shown their solidarity with london in the wake of the incident, including berlin's brandenburg gate being lit up with the union flag and the eiffel tower going dark. >> even if we leave the european union, we will work closely with our allies in europe and across the u.s., whether canada, australia, new zealand, pakistan. by working closer together, we can ensure our citizens are kept safe. presidential race took an inflammatory turn last night. lon at made iraqis --
made in a position of spreading damaging revelations. the republican nominee has been charged and being investigated for giving family members jobs paid with public money. china's central bank has stepped up measures to cool the property market by asking banks in beijing to scrutinize hormones to newly divorced couples and funding sources for borrowers. the city's home buyers divorce for less than a year will be considered second-home purchasers when they apply for mortgages. also, buyers using leveraged financial product -- products for down payment. hong kong's elite will choose a onritories next leader sunday. the new chief executive will be selected by a 1200 strong committee of politicians, activists, professionals and business leaders. ordinary people have no say. there are three candidates, but the contest is latched -- largely between the former
deputy head and the more popular former exponential secretary. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . let's check in on the market action in asia. have at least in the region rising for a 10th time in 11 days. japanese and ollie stocks leading gains in the region. kospi closing 2/10 of 1% lower in asia. dragged, 10hares points shy of the record hit on tuesday. -- the hunt same -- marginally lower. movers.ok at we had dairy shares being suspended from trading in hong kong. this after they plummeted to a record spiral.
the chairman rejecting speculation its largest shareholder misused funds to tyson in a plot. reporting that the government held a meeting on thursday with 23 creditor banks to discuss the debt. this is china's biggest dairy firm operator. toshiba adding about 7.6% in tokyo. this after hedge funds see capital -- feeling optimism around its survival. matt: thank you. sophie kamaruddin in hong kong giving us an update. anna: leaders expected to vote on their health keller -- health care bill. pressure to act now. voteeaders approached the
without knowing they have enough support to pass it. many as been viewed by a test of what a trump white house can actually get done in the legislature. doubts regarding that undermine the stock rally this week. joining us on set, charlie, head of rates at aviva investors. great to see on the program. how focused are you when you read headlines that suggest everyone on wall street is glued to what is happening on capitol hill to get clues about how much power trump really has to push through his legislative agenda? is that the right place to be looking right now? charlie: no, not really. if you go back to the original trump election victory the market quickly tried to price the entire trump effect. since then, we have been almost stepping back and back. simply because you are in the world of politics, not of markets anymore.
this is a long-term thing. you are subject to things like votes in houses of parliament. the due process, what you actually finally get delivered is almost never what someone sits there and says you get in the first place. matt: are you concerned a failure to pass a health care bill would mean he is also going to have trouble carrying through tax reform, infrastructure spending, deregulation? markets aret is how taking it, but i'm not sure you can draw a conclusion. everyone loves a tax cut, right? that had been the first bill he had tried to get through, perhaps not having some of the more contentious issues around border tax adjustment, you may well have found a lot more -- the honeymoon period had a lot more success. whereas now he has picked a thorny issue, particularly it takes away medical coverage for
a large chunk of the population. matt: the s&p 500 index is still up 10% since november 8. the equity markets still voting positively. charles: they haven't unwound the trump trade, nor should they. the building called economics and the economy going on. it is doing well. anna: you can debate how much was the trump trade and the economics. trump, howe watching much power he has to together his legislative agenda. the fed is watching to understand what kind of fiscal boost is coming their way at a ine of very low unemployment the united states. a probability of a rate hike in june at around 52% right now. how much does that have to move in the coming weeks question mark how certain are you of what the fed will do in june question mark --june question
june? charles: is priced at a 50-50 shot right now. really what it is saying to you is we are going to wait and see what yellen says, what other fed governors are saying as to whether they mentally have moved to a one per quarter schedule or if they are going to stick to three times this year. we have already had one. to they going june or in september and december? is why the market is pricing with less certainty. definitely the economy is doing well. if there is a risk for markets and potentially turning hawkish, if the fed to perceive ongoing strength in the economy and ongoing inflation risk, they moved to a more once a quarter
♪ welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe go -- europe." gorgeous berlin. the heart of the city, the brandenburg gate and it looks like a wonderful day. right now it is 8:15 on the cotton it 7:15 in london. anna: let's bring you an exclusive story. consideringe is selling 3 billion swiss francs of stock as nest turn it into raising capital through part of its with unit. let's speaking and hendrix foster care great have you on
the program. this could the end of the credit suisse ipo. can you hear us? >> yes, high. this could be the end of the ipo story for quite a three's -- credit suisse? >> we have been understanding that the bank is considering a capital increase and that would come instead of planned ipo of the swiss unit that will be a partial ipo. the bank has announced plans , there seems now to be a slight chance of the bank not pursuing the ipo and raising capital. our understanding is they would do that through an accelerated building process.
investors and analysts have said that in the past, the ipo is a complicated process. mulling option lt on that matter and the capital rate could be one of those. matt: matt miller here in london for the week. i thought it was interesting this morning to see the bonus pool actually being raised at credit suisse and the capital buffer coming down a little bit. what do you make of those developments? >> exactly. the capital ratios are very important and analysts and investors are very closely eyeing this, and credit suisse has been one of the banks with a capitalization in the past few years. this is why they are trying to fill his capital gap and mulling all of these measures. they raised pool,
the bonus pool and for the first time in two years. one reason is they want to retain talent. many people were affected, especially in the event -- investment bank by the overhaul. he is pivoting away from investment banking towards more stable wealth management. we understand this as a measure to retain talent and keep it attractive to credit suisse. -- work at credit suisse. matt: thanks for joining us. our finance reporter in zurich. anna: details of the credit suisse story. let's get back to the head every -- head of rates at of event. over marine macron le pen, but marine le pen is on a visit to russia. she says russia and france need to join together to save the world according to the eye fx news agency and cites dangers of globalism, from islamic
fundamentalism. , it is if le pen wins the end of the year and the end of the eu. he seems pretty adamant. charles: the reality is if you look at the french political is prettye polling pen is no matter who le up against. the other candidate is likely to win. there with their -- then beat so many other hurdles within the french political system, who would win the national assembly, then calling the referendum, and all of these various hurdles. people talk about is almost impossible to image. matt: are there bigger risks to the european union or the eurozone? i have heard talk that some say he expects
fewer countries to be in the eurozone in 15 years. charles: this is all about the concept of the union and the economic convergence. the greek crisis and the whole tension between the court we have seen over the last five or six years -- that highlight the structuresconomic between countries within the eurozone. that hasn't really been fixed. things like structural reforms in france, italy, need to be seen through if you are going to get economic convergence. if you don't, these tensions remain. this political risk in the background is just a warning sign that if you don't get on with that, people aren't going to see the benefits. anna: in short-term, where does the taper talk take us with the
ecb? has beenbecause there some strength in the data, people have jumped on the idea that the ecb is going to throw out the concept of extraordinary measures. they are not yet convinced inflation is sustainably on a high path. they are going to continue doing qe and they will taper eventually, -- >> next month? charles: no. that is the first stage, but the runoff is very long. that runs to the end of this year. they won't hard stop at the end of this year. if you start looking at the runoff period, it is very long. anna: are you surprised at the chatter we have gotten from members of the ecb around the taper question mark given the political calendar? matt: others have said they could raise before they -- , theat is a possibility
floor raised while they are doing qe. that is feasible. for them to be having this debate that at the same time, it is worth keeping in mind that the inflation data is going to roll over. the base effect struck. inflation is great and backing europe -- in five months time, it won't look like it does right now. us,: thank you for joining charlie. let's move on. new cancer drug won approval from regulators. patients with a rare form of skin cancer. the company's plan on selling the drug for $13,000 a month, the price in line with other cancer therapies. joining us on the phone in the ceo.s stephan, rare skin cancer. how significant a product can this be for you? is very important
for our company. is an important indication that patients have for this fatal disease. they have hardly any surgery options. indicationthe first we have got approval for it. we have recently received breakthrough designation from the fda on bladder cancer and developing the product in many other indications too. this price tag is in line with other immunotherapies. it strikes me as -- i am not very familiar -- as expensive. is 13 -- $13,000 a month fair? stefan: it is in line with the value of the product. immune ecology is a major
revolution in health care and treatment. we think this price reflect the value of the product. the immune system to fight cancer seems to be a significant change in the way cancer is the treated in recent years. work inare you at catching up in that field? up with do you catch other companies that have been leading the way in this kind of immunotherapy? we had established a research group that was focusing entirely on oncology. there was a time most people have not even heard of that. this is really a remarkable development. we have quite a few other pipeline assets that we are working on so we are confident
about our prospects. the: how is the sale of business going? just to move on to another part of the business you are working on. stefan: we had announced when we had our press conference that we were in late stage negotiations for the sale of a similar business. it had been a plan before us, the pipelines of products that didn't work out. anna: we had a word on the pricing. donald trump has been tweeting about prices of drugs on a fairly consistent basis. fromyou had any feedback the u.s. administration as to whether this price is acceptable? stefan: we had no specifics the -- feedback on the price, the approval. that happened yesterday. yesterday a very active dialogue with the new administration.
also messages of being sent. i am confident the u.s. will continue to be a place for true innovation, where it will be rewarded by the health care system and the u.s. has a leading position both physical to the research base pharmaceutical industry as well as to the regard -- with regard to medical centers. i continue to be an optimist. anna: thank you very much. thererck ceo joining us on the phone. we are getting breaking news. jean claude giving us his take on a brenton bill. around 50 billion british pounds according to an interview he has done with the bbc. he is saying it needs to be calculated scientifically. he probably means legally in that sense. interesting to get his take
xfinity. the future of awesome. guy: good morning. you are watching bloomberg markets this friday. this is the european open. i'm guy johnson. i'm in london, as is matt miller. take it or leave it, the trump administration files the pressure on conservative republicans to back his health care reform. the vote is expected today. close to call. matt: credit suisse is said to weigh a $3 billion capital
increase rather than listing part of its capital unit. it is a good scoop by bloomberg. i wanted to take that headline. guy: you did a fantastic job. opec and non-opec producers meeting in kuwait as u.s. stockpiles counter the efforts to drain the global surplus. can shale really be tamed here? for: important question inflation. important question for rates. we're less than half and hour away from the european open. take a look at where futures are trading in europe right now. we had a day -- there's the bund yield. you can take a look at the bund yield or futures. really no change. yesterday we were sitting on our hands, waiting for this health care legislation to get voted on because the market judges that as an important indicator of donald trump's strength for future legislation. that boat was pushed back and now we continue to sit on our
hands. ftse, dax, and cac right now. the euro stocks 50 down about 011%. take a look at blends here. i've got them in the terminal yielding 4.31%. than they hadower been at the close of trade yesterday, but you can see that yields are now recovering into the start of the equity trade. guy: let's talk about where the fix was yesterday. volatility is rising. something to pay attention to. where going to show you the gmm. volatility is rising. european equity markets rising as well. this is going well. this is going really well. miller is in control of my terminal. it is going well. let me just say that sophie kamaruddin is standing by.
sophie: in the u.s., the highly anticipated event. house republican leaders theired to vote today on health care bill. that is under pressure from donald trump's administration to act now. gop leaders approach of the vote without knowing they have enough support to pass it. the bill has been viewed by avestors as a test of what trump white house can get done in the legislature. speaker of the house paul ryan spoke about the bill's chances. >> we have been promising the american people that we will repeal and replace this broken law because it is collapsing and failing families and tomorrow we are proceeding. sophie: in the u.k., the terror attack on london has claimed a fourth victim with police saying a 75-year-old man has died of his injuries. last night thousands of people .athered to remain those killed
cities around the world have shown their solidarity with london in the wake of the incident, including berlin's brandenburg gate being lit up and the eiffel tower in paris going dark. >> i'm confident that even if we leave the european union, we will carry on working closely with our allies across the world , in america, canada, australia, new zealand, and other parts of the world. only by cooperation, by working closer together, can we ensure that our citizens are kept safe. france's presidential race took an inflammatory term. francois fillon accused francois hollande of directing a covert operation to metal with a judicial investigation against him and helping to spread damaging accusations. the republican nominee is being investigated for allegedly giving family members fictitious money.id with public
china central bank has stepped up measures to cool the property market by asking banks in beijing to scrutinize home loans to newly divorced couples. the home buyers divorced for less than a year will be considered second-home purchasers when they apply for mortgages. banks are also banned from providing mortgages to buyers -- [indiscernible] global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you very much indeed. opec and non-opec producers are meeting in kuwait. they will be reviewing the impact of their output cuts and will be assessing to see whether the kurds need to extend beyond the summit. yousef gamal el-din joins us now from kuwait city. , importance of and expectations for this meeting. yousef: a lot at stake here.
if you look at what is happening with oil prices, reversing their games, we are back at the level from late last year. meeting, they're going to be looking to review the progress or arguably the lack thereof. saudi arabia has been shouldering most of the cuts. then you need to look at compliance levels from the other members. 91% according to the iea when it comes to opec. arguably a decent report card. and thee becomes russia non-opec group. that is only 41%. possibly as high as 67%. backdropat against the where you have more oil coming into the market. look at what is happening with u.s. crude inventories. this tells the story. one is u.s. crude inventory. still at the highest seasonal
level in over three decades. countering the oil, the other line that opec is trying to get out of the market. there's a lot at stake. oil bulls are not looking for any silver linings. they are looking for hard, tangible, meaningful data that actually says this plan is working. matt: what might an extension look like here, yousef? that decision is going to come in may. the work here is going to lay the groundwork for that. one issue is going to be the russian pledge to live up to its commitment. saudi arabia publicly prodded russia for not doing that. before the deal was made, there were skeptics that said russia doesn't have a track record of living up to its expectations. if they determine that they need to be more aggressive in an extension of the deal for the next six months, they could ask iran to come to the table and contribute more and perhaps some
other opec members as well. ultimately this comes down to confidence. confidence only can be achieved with a unified front from opec. goldman sachs says, time is not on your side. the longer this drags on, the more you have unintended consequences in the u.s. guy: thank you very much indeed. yousef gamal el-din joining us from kuwait. joining us on set, amrita sen. good morning. is this meeting important? amrita: it is important like all the others have been. they need to check compliance. honestly, compliance so far has been very good. matt: what do you expect to hear after this meeting? mostly concerns about u.s. stockpiles? amrita: i think they are concerned about it. if we look at the chart, stockpiles have gone like this and production has gone like that. what we are talking about is the
timelines. opec pushed an additional 1.5 million barrels of exports in production really late into last year. this is nothing to do with the cuts not working. you are going to start seeing the effects from pretty much next week on words. oil on water is down massively. guy: saudi arabia has become more adept at managing market expectations. let's think of saudi arabia as a central bank. how would draghi handle this? how would janet yellen handle this? amrita: i don't think they are quite there yet. especially after the last two weeks and all the contradictory stuff. i think the reality is it is about managing expectations. they kind of came out and pointed fingers at each other. that didn't go down very well. we all know stockpiles are very high. because of the late push last
year, the starting point of inventories is higher. that is why we have to get that rollover, which i do think is going to happen. morea is complying in love now. i think that is the critical thing. if they can assure the market, yes compliance is higher, but we are monitoring this. as long as stockpiles don't return to the five-year average, that is the message. matt: to other countries have lower breakeven point? amrita: not really. iraq and saudi and kuwait are similar. if you had on social cost, it gets very different. i don't think saudi arabia is necessarily any higher. it is probably the lowest. matt: is russia happy with $48 a barrel? amrita: not really. breakevens aside, they also need higher oil prices for the wider economy. been in a range on
price for quite a while. are we comfortable with that range? theta: i think we are in range, but my worry is much more than the fundamentals. refineries are going to come out of maintenance. markets make it very difficult for traders to make money. the curve has also been flattening. the physical guys can't make money to go storage is not profitable anymore. they want people who are bearish going into the year but prices held on. money.ne has really made my worry is that even when fundamentals do get better, do you have enough capital around to come back? there's a difference between the supply and demand. matt: stay with us. we're going to continue this conversation with amrita sen. later, we're going to talk about france's presidential race.
to be considering selling stock valued at more than 3 billion swiss francs instead of raising capital investing part of its swiss unit. a representative declined to comment. the bank said this morning that it has increased its bonus pool, awarding ceo tidjane thiam 11.9 million francs for his first full year on the drug. uber's biggest rival in southeast asia is said to be planning to raise more than 1.5 billion dollars in a new funding round. according to people familiar with the matter, softbank is pledging about $1 billion in the rideshare company. grab declined to comment. softbank wasn't able to comment either. eric mindich, a one-time goldman sachs trader who jumped into the hedge fund industry, is throwing in the towel on his firm. easton parkse capital management was among the biggest startups, is returning client money.
the firm expects to return 40% of all investors' capital by the end of next month. shares of china's huishan dairy holdings were suspended after plummeting in hong kong. the sudden crash wiped out about $4.2 billion in market value. short seller carson block's muddy waters capital said in december that the company is worth close to zero and questioned its profitability. huishan said the allegations were groundless. we will bring you an interview with carson block at midday u.k. time and 8:00 a.m. new york time. matt, guy? guy: thank you. let's talk about the data. the big numbers today are french pmi data and data out of germany on the same front a little bit later on. we've just had gdp data dropping. these are the final numbers for france. with that a final year on year gdp reading coming through at 1.1%.
the original number, 1.2%. matt: we're going to get cpi numbers next week. interesting to continue our focus on commodities and oil. those carry through into inflation. if we don't see prices rise, we have a softening gdp and inflation situation. that will be interesting. ith amrita sen, oil analyst. where do you see the price going? wti,ooking at 47.89 for 50.69 for brent crude. where does it end the year? amrita: we should be firmly into the 60's. a lot depends on the outages. i wouldn't rule out a seven handle, but i think 60's is where we should stabilize. guy: let's talk about strategy and shale. let's talk about the brent curve. ago, we were talking
about this earlier, a lot of hedging by the shale guys. they are protected. they've been able to do that despite the fact -- we've got a flat brent curve. if it is flat, it is hard to hedge. opec strategy should be what? amrita: opec strategy should be very simple. get that curve backward. guy: let's get the shot again. the orange line is the curve currently. you are saying they need to get this end of the curve down here. amrita: particularly that middle bit. they hedge one year, two years max. 2020 bitto get that which is very flat at the moment down. then the front has to go up. as soon as it happens, the opec guys earn more money and a producer just cannot hedge a curve.
effectively you are hedging a lower price in the future, which is very difficult to sell to management. matt: can opec try and control the curve going forward or do they have much more power on the immediate price? as long as they are focused on getting this inventory overhang out, if you don't have the overhang, the curve will be backward. backwards.reeds once you are backwards, you keep releasing stocks unless something happens that supply suddenly surges. shale is going to grow, but the rest of the world isn't growing respective of opec. guy: say they bring that middle bit down. what is the impact on spot? feed it back into the markets. amrita: i think it can go two ways. either you can keep the front right where it is and the back collapses, but that is unlikely. as soon as you get backwards, we
on of the pension funds start getting what is called a positive yield. they're going to start investing in oil, whether because of inflation, oil as a hedge, and that is when you can start seeing the front come up. if the curve goes backwards, that is a sign that the inventories are coming out. you attract more investors. you should get a decent uplift. potentially five dollars, $10 on the front. on the supply side. how does the demand side look? amrita: really good. i'm quite tired of just talking about supply. demand so far tracking about 1.8 million barrels are day year on year. despite it having been a ridiculously warm winter in the u.s. again, asia is doing well, china in particular. the only soft spots, the middle east and saudi arabia, a lot of austerity measures.
russia is doing better. europe as well. phenomenal numbers. may that continue. guy: fantastic conversation. amrita sen, chief oil analyst at energy aspects. we are minutes away from the cash open. up next, going to look at some of the movers. credit suisse is said to be playing a stock sale rather than ipo of its swiss business. the open is eight minutes away. this is bloomberg. ♪
is 7:54 in london. 8:54 in berlin. let's talk about some of the stocks. credit suisse firmly in focus. a, on the bonus story, and also as the result of this story that we had related to the fact that tidjane thiam may decide to go for a cash raise hot on the heels of john cryan afte rather than may be looking to ipo. the price over the last couple years and where the analysts are, that is the 12-month price target. you can see the number of sale ratings in those red lines. analysts split on where the stock goes next. matt: let's take a look also at erck becausen m
pfizer and merck together have a cancer drug and immunotherapy drug. this is a rare form of skin cancer and it will cost $13,000 a month. we spoke with the ceo of merck. he said that is in line with other drugs of a similar price. the interesting question is how the trump administration will react to that. donald trump has tweeted a lot about the high price of drugs. the market looks to be taking it positively. guy: this is immunotherapy. merck in some ways has been late. it is partnering up with pfizer. the question is, and they've got this javelin program underway to see whether or not the science could the used to treat other forms of cancer as well. if this works, maybe some of those other therapies work as well. matt: trade gate is calling the shares up 3% at the open.
guy: it's friday. the market is about to open. this is bloomberg. we think it is likely to be a fairly flat story. we will see what happens on capitol hill later on, trying to get a sense of where this vote goes. apparently too close to call. at the moment, no real clear sense of directions. pointing to a mixed story. the cac down, london just a bit positive. interesting to look at the euro right now. we have european leaders meeting in rome to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the signing of the rome treaty.
here you see your trading at 1.07. it has been around 1.08. it is only down 2% versus the dollar from november 8 when donald trump was elected. it has recovered quite a bit. guy: let's talk about this market open. i've taken it back a little bit, this chart. this shows you the move lower, the rise subsequent to that. up here you've got the cac 40 and the german market. the swiss market there as well. how are we opening this morning? we are expecting really no clear sense of direction. the cac 40 barely budging. market makers don't want to give this market and a sense of direction at all. the cac 40 still trading north of 5000 but you are not seeing an awful lot of action. where you are seeing some action is in the economic data. we are some french pmi data