tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg April 10, 2017 10:00am-11:01am EDT
vonnie: we take you from new york to london in the next hour as we discussed stories out of moscow and milan and washington. in politics, members of congress are back home for a recess. where does this leave trump's agenda? laffer hear from arthur who still sees an economic boom under the trump administration. mark: saly is coming under fire. the board will cut his pay, this is over news that he violated whistleblower protection rules. vonnie: and in geopolitics, geopolitics, rex tillerson stripper broad got more complicated.
in thehis week, russia wake of u.s. airstrikes in syria. are 30 minutes into the monday trading session. abigail doolittle is here to tell us what is going on. amazon is not hitting a record high but it is close to the record high after being up rated. there was a big upside. they say this is something they expect the dominance to continue. tesla is trading higher. a new record high.
they have actually surpassed ford and gm and only we take a look in the bloomberg, in blue, we have forward. white, tesla. aboveeek, they popped up forward and now they have taken on gm. that is one reason they are higher today. what makes this remarkable is the fact that tesla's estimated revenue for this year is 11.3 billion dollars versus gm at 160 $3 billion. some are scratching their heads at that. but we do have them as the biggest automaker right now. and the only take a look across assets. not really a risk on or risk off day. trading is down slightly after haven bonds are rallying. the yen is lower against the dollar. gold is down but the fix is higher. on-riskt really a risk
off day despite the fact that we have major averages on pace for the best day since april. mark: stoxx 600 down and we have been stuck in a trading range today. we rose last week by marginally gaining for the best run since geopolitics ist overshadowing equities which will come through in the next couple of hours. berkeley shares were down and are now higher. the chief executive will be reprimanded at barclays. it will be investigated how we try to unmask a whistleblower last year. the total return under its saly 2015 wastook office in -3.2 percent versus a 2.5% gain for the peers. this is just a simple return. barclays is the purple line. the stoxx 600 bank index is down
return withimple saly outperforming the stoxx 600 bank index. is this a chart that tells us why bhp billiton has been targeted for an overhaul by sometimes activists? is it urging the world's biggest mining company to unify corporate structures and spin off more assets and include capital returns? that has referred to talks held with management today saying they could move the value by 50% of beginning of last year. the anglo is up by 450%. measly -- i say that teasingly -- one edge of percent. nothing compared to the game witnessed by anglo-american. agreeing toy with sell itself to bain capital for 5.3 billion euros, giving the
private equity firms more control over one of the last independent generic drug is mrs. after the takeover content. the deal will give them access marketsn and russian over-the-counter and copycat medicines and marks another step in the consolidation of the generic industry. by 10.6% today. vonnie: thank you. let's stay on the markets. investors will talk about geopolitical risks. places questions at the university of michigan later today and in the meantime, her colleague gave this assessment earlier on bloomberg. the policy rate doesn't have to be raised all that much from where it is today. in order to keep inflation and unemployment where they are today. therefore, there is an that
much normalization that needs to go on with respect to the policy rates. fed's position on this. vonnie: joining us now from nashville, tennessee is arthur laffer. thank you for joining. trump tooked, before office, that you were optimistic for the economic plan. we are 80 days into the administration, are you seeing that come to life at all? yes, i am pleased with the administration so far. these are people who haven't worked together and they are not all politicians and they will mistakes -- they will make mistakes all over the place. but as time goes on, expect to see the quality of the personal rising and their cohesiveness work together as a team. it is just the way it was with reagan when we came in. it was a hodgepodge of people not working well to people --
working well together but i started lose out we will see list -- we will see this administration improve. vonnie: what you see the administration getting past congress? >> tax reform. we have the highest corporate and wee in the oh a cd are the only country that has a we have badnd depreciation rules. if he can get that rate from 35-15 and make it territorial and have 100% expensing, this could be one of the most exclusive times in u.s. history. : there was an "if" in their. when is it going to happen? arthur: if i knew that, it would be -- i would be rich. i would expect that some of the
big tax cuts won't happen until next year or the year after but if you remember with reagan, the big tax bill was 1986 when we dropped the highest rate to 20% and we cut the corporate rate down to 34%. that is when we really unleashed the growth in the economy. and it may take some time with this administration but i am expecting it sooner rather than later. mark: why should i be patient as an investor? arthur: because you have no choice. to be honest with you. of years will pass for all us. if you're impatient and you take your gains right now, someone else will get the profit that you won't have. the a long-term investor in this case. if you look at the time from 1982-the end of the clinton administration, stocks were up 750% in real terms.
percent in nominal terms. you are in for a time of expansion like that, if not better. so just hold on. bull markets make everyone look smart. vonnie: there definitely similarities to the reagan era that there are lots of differences when it comes to the federal reserve, quantitative easing and the global environment and how global we are now. ask you about the fed normalization. how will that put a spanner in the works? to is the economy able handle the stimulus just described? policies overd the last eight years have been bad. they have held interest rates way too low which has restricted the amount of capital to the housing market. investors do not want to invest when they have no return. and the fed doesn't understand the investment market.
the sooner they let interest rates rise, the better off the economy will be. perad new housing sales 1000 population at the eighth lowest years during the fed quantitative easing time because of quantitative easing not in spite of it. so the sooner they get out of the financial markets, the better off we will be. vonnie: is there a risk of a government shutdown in a few weeks? arthur: probably but i don't think it is big. if it shuts down for two days, there will be so much commotion that they will reopen in two days. this movie always has the same ending. they shut it down for a little bit and they get huge backlash that they open it up again. i hope they don't go through that time but they might. congress, they are into themselves. i hope they don't do it but you never know. , thank youhur laffer
for joining us. as he mentioned, janet yellen is usually speak at the university at 9:00 p.m. london time and stay tuned for coverage and analysis of her q and a session. let's get the bloomberg first word news. you. thank in europe, rex tillerson's mission to europe became more, gator. the u.s. secretary of state will deliver a tough message on wednesday following the u.s. cruise missile attack on syria. rex tillerson is likely to get a tong lashing from the russian foreign minister and there is no plan for vladimir putin to meet with tillerson. the french election has become a four-way race. up francois fillon for third place. macron and marine le pen -- they are tied for first place with 24% each. first round of voting is april
23. in egypt, the president has to emergencystate of after church bombings killed at least 43 people. he also created a new agency to fight terrorism. the islamic state claimed responsibility for the explosions this weekend. they targeted egyptian christians on palm sunday. more than half of registered voters in the usa trump should be forced to release his tax returns according to a national poll. only 45% say his term -- say his returns are relevant to his ability to do his job. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am emma chandra. this is bloomberg. mark: thank you. coming up, oil is edging higher. oil on what is shaping the market in today's futures in focus. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: live from new york, i am a vonnie quinn. mark barton. this is bloomberg markets. time for a look at the biggest business stories in the news. buy straighted to path communications. it will hold licenses to coveted airways. the stock is valued at $1.6 billion. straight path says the airwaves are a cheaper alternative to the fiber lines. they typically carry mobile traffic to and from the wired network. a big merger in the u.s. trucking industry. shift transportation and -- has .greed on the deal
the companies say the combined business will have $5 billion in annual revenue. the directors at wells fargo say senior managers shrugged off a bogus customer account scandal and then downplayed it. that members released report yesterday. to takempted the board back millions of dollars from john stumpf. that is the latest bloomberg business flash. vonnie: while much of the spotlight remains on the fed's massive balance sheet, there is one foreign threat. we will tell you what that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: this is "bloomberg markets." to the bonding out markets. it seems like everyone is assessed with what will happen when the fed will start to unwind the massive balance sheet but there is a development that could draw demand away from u.s. treasuries at the wrong time. joining us now to discuss that is brian chappatta. the treasury market is owned by foreign investors. this is what we should be focused on? brian: that's right. it is almost half. this is a pretty big chunk of the market that foreigners hold. and the issue is that the negative yielding bonds that we were obsessed with in july last year, suddenly that amount is shrinking. and i know it is like a 0% healed which seems arbitrary but for a lot of investors, that is the breaking point. if they invest below breaking
points they will not buy. vonnie: so investors could start buying their own bonds it is at least they get a positive return. but they would get a lot more of a return if they buy treasuries? why wouldn't they pick that option? brian: maybe being closer to home feels better for these investors. and it is possible that they loaded up last year when treasuries yielded 1.5%-2% and german bunds were well below zero. it is possible that they have already filled their bucket with frenchies and now we see bonds, that might be the more attractive option. mark: the dollar is a tricky one. does that make this debt less palatable and enticing? that depends on where you expect the dollar to go from here. after the trump election, there
was a lot of expectations that the trawler -- that the dollar would continue to strengthen. in that case, hedging -- it is a risky proposition. they base it on whether you think the reflation trade is sustainable and what the u.s. fiscal policy means for the dollar, going forward. the treasury market today telling us? with yields above 2.3%? still near there bottom of their range. and the market today is speaking a lot more about the outlook for monetary policy going out forward. dudley came out late friday to give clarification and it shook the bond market in a sense because they were expecting the fed balance sheet normalization to main a substantial paths in rate hikes going forward and now, he is saying ok, maybe we won't raise rates at the meeting is going forward, we will just
pick it up when we left it off. vonnie: wouldn't conventional it wouldggests that decrease supply and prices could go up and there might be more demand? brian: the reason why we are talking about the foreign holders today is because the balance sheet normalization without so create more supply in the market for private investors thethat, compounded with fact that you cannot meet the supply with demand from overseas , could create higher yields, going forward. vonnie: this is a twisted question. yearwith the yield on a 10 have to be to attract investors or can we not speculate? brian: there has been a wall of cash at the 2.6% level. that is what bill gross would say. that is the top of the range we have seen so far. is a key tactical level on the high-end as we saw last year.
2.3% on the low end. after the jobs report and the missile strike, we did break the level but we quickly retreated because there were some sellers. mark: brian chappatta, great job. watch bloomberg real year old, ever new show that highlights global issues and events that directly affect markets. catch it this thursday, noon, new york time. tune in now for the futures in focus. crude oil is rising for the fifth straight day, the longest winning streak of the year. chrisg us to discuss is .ershom we have libya coming back into the headline. is this similar to the trade happening in other asset classes right now? chris: it is.
the attack in egypt, everyone is focused on the iran-russia story and syria and therefore, that plays into some of the volatility. but there is a lot of news going on and supply and tension in africa that traders are concerned about. vonnie: what about the geopolitical risk? we talked last week talking about syria and north korea and china. does that play into oil trading these days? or are you focused on the opec-non-opec? have: as you know, you been covering this forever, it seems like the geopolitical issues is more of a headspace than anything to trade with the futures. volatility spikes and it comes right back into the mean. i do believe this geopolitical risk is going to put some concern into the traders.
be a lot of buying with it. everybody is concerned with opec. reports are coming out later this week which could point to a delay in the cancellation of production cuts later in may. vonnie: we are already above $51 therrel, what do you see as potential top out? chris: you know, the top range obviously is at the 55 dollar handle on the may contract. we did see it move above $52 quickly but in trading action before i came on, we saw a fullback from $53. to $55.way up any kind of see geopolitical issues, my focus is on it still gaming. i think it will fall back below $50. but if we have more news out of africa, i think we go above $55. vonnie: what happens with the money coming out of gold -- if
we see money coming out of gold or other asset classes, does that move into oil, potentially? chris: i do believe it will come into oil. u.s.,ws out of the anoline supplies are down at eight week low. people don't see oil correlating with moving higher. funding issues on gasoline -- i believe they jump into oil. vonnie: chris gersch with today's futures in focus. mark: getting to purslane involved in case. more, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
how much you qualify for, the ways to receive your money and more. plus, when you call now, you'll get this magnifier with led light absolutely free! when you call the experts at one reverse mortgage today you'll learn the benefits of a government-insured reverse mortgage. it will eliminate your monthly mortgage payments and give you tax-free cash from the equity in your home... and here's the best part... you still own yohome. call now! take control of your retirement today! vonnie: live from new york and london, i am vonnie quinn. mark: this is "bloomberg markets."
emma chandra has more. emma: let's get you caught up with the first word news. neil gorsuch has taken the first of two oats as he prepares to take his place at the 113th justice of the supreme court. he was sworn in this morning after a contentious political fight in the senate. the first ceremony takes place privately at the court. there will be a public white house ceremony a short amount of time from now. in sweden, people are questioning the country's open immigration policy in the wake of the truck rampage that killed four people. forsuspect had a request residency that was turned down. a second person has now been arrested in connection with the attack. in london, thousands lined the streets to kate -- streets to say goodbye to the officer killed in the westminster attack.
theing in the u.k., during 2008 financial crisis, the bank of england repeatedly pressured commercial banks to lower their settings for the libor rate according to the bbc which cites a secret recording of a senior manager at a large british bank. the boe says libor wasn't regulated at the time. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i am emma chandra. this is bloomberg. marx: jes staley is under investigation. they say you try to identify whistleblower who alerted the bank to a personal matter involving a whistleblower issue last year. he did apologize in a staff memo to say he should have let compliance handle the matter.
joining us now with the latest is stephen morris. is his job safe or not? job is it safe in the long term but at the moment he does have the backing of the board and they haven't fired him. he may lose $1.3 billion -- he may lose $1.3 million of his bonus but what is unclear is what determination the regulators will reach. is a man who is try to restore barclays reputational and change the culture and bring on the highest ethical standards. is this a double standard? certainly is incredibly damaging when a ceo, even before he took over in 2015, he was telling staff his main aim was to restore the reputation of the bank and overhaul the culture and make banking a place that people would be proud to work in. and for him to have been found
discovered breaching whistleblowing laws and tipping off the banks about past misconduct from people he had employed certainly doesn't look good at the moment. vonnie: i'm sure you have had a chance to look at the memo to staff which was confirmed by a spokesperson. in it, he says he should have let compliance handle the matter and he got to personally involved. why is he still in the building? is he canhe board of survive this. they are concerned about the regulators. the third ceois barclays is had since 2012 and radley, people seem to be ok with his performance otherwise. so it is clear that the board made a calculation that an apology and a massive dock to the bonus of more than one million pounds will satisfy the bloodlust. was he looking for the whistleblower in the first place?
assuming he had found him or her, what would he have done? stephen: he said in a private memo to staff that we have managed to obtain that he was concerned for one of his colleagues, guys he had brought into the bank himself. and as far as he was concerned, the allegations were too far in the past you have any bearing of a guy's performance in his job. presumably he would have asked them nicely to stop coming but who knows the questions it will have to face over the coming weeks and months. any potential was a blower step back? not just within barclays, but within banks? does this damage the whistleblowing process? reason: part of this is for concern because if you are a whistleblowing, you think that if people to highest level are not taking bees will seriously than you would think twice but on the other hand, he has
actually been caught and someone did report him. for going against the whistleblowing process. so in a way, the procedure has worked and it does show that even people at the top level are held accountable if they try to shut down discontent. other allegations of misbehavior emerge -- i think you could not survive that. you have to think that will a third ceo in four years would send shares into freefall so investors are taking the same calculation the board has an think that he will manage to survive this but you have to remember in past incidences, barclays did get fined for libor and shares did actually rise that day as well. so take it all with a pinch of salt. marco thank you.
it is one of the last independent generic drug businesses in europe. the price for present a 49% pricem to the company's in december when talks of a takeover emerged. isisraeli drugmaker considering whether to sell the women's health division according to people familiar with the matter. it could fetch up to $2 billion. they have been trying to reduce their number after the takeover of allergan last year. dozens of contractors were hired to root out fraud. that is according to people familiar with the matter who say the job cuts at the securities and exchange commission raise concerns that the pace of enforcement actions will slow down. the agency is bracing for possible budget reductions but they say that didn't lead to job cuts. that is the latest bloomberg business flash.
quick: time for a takeover we provide context and background on issues of interest. a land where the arab spring's collided with a dictatorship determined to stay in power. now, it has become the middle east's biggest humanitarian disaster in decades. they battle the forces of president bashar al-assad and at times, they fight each other. violence has killed an estimated 370,000 people and it has created millions of refugees. initiallytrump expressed the continuation of president assad's rule but after the chemical attack, that changed. the attack killed more than 70 people. the u.s. responded with missile strikes on an airbase. rex tillerson said steps are underway with a coalition to
theve president assad after islamic state was if he did in syria. russia's support of the regime has enabled it to gain momentum against the rebels including some backed by the u.s. and its allies. syria's rulers belong to a leader of shiite islam. syria also has sizable christian and kurdish communities. crush peaceful protests in 2011, unleashing aircraft, artillery and tanks against armed rebels. here is the argument. will lead to the downfall is unclear. it will be challenging for trump to build a case for a greater u.s. role. and there is the question of what would happen if president assad falls? russia says that their goal is to keep russia -- to keep
serious secular and intact. the defeat can leave a vacuum that radical islamic groups would fill. you can read more about syria on the bloomberg. studies are global business report. mark: rex tillerson just italyng to a meeting in at this hour. this comes as rex tillerson is finding his voice in foreign policy after trump launched and attack lasted an week and he is likely to face a tong lashing from the russian when he meets them. tillerson outlined his agenda on the sunday morning talk shows. >> that will be part of the discussions when i visit moscow, to call upon the foreign minister and the russian government to fulfill the obligation it made to the international community when it agreed to be the guarantor of
the elimination of chemical weapons. and why russia has not been able to achieve that is unclear to me. i don't draw conclusions of complicity at all but clearly, they are incompetent. and perhaps they have simply been outmaneuvered by the syrians. is henryning us now meyer and alan crawford. and with vonnie quinn is kevin cirilli. a delicate balancing act for rex tillerson. rounding the allies over the syria attack. but there is still a fisher emerging among g7 nations about nato spending. how does he walk that delicate balancing act? it is huge issue that will be hard to hide under the table. germanyinly know that
as the biggest economy in europe and the host, italy, are skeptical about the u.s. demands about how they go about meeting the 2% of gdp defense spending and they are pushing back here. to get the domestic context in germany, we just had martin scholz, the challenger against angela merkel in the september election, and he was very clear that he wants nothing to do with reducing spending levels to these levels. pardon the fact that they make a point about how it would look if germany and italy suddenly spend massive amounts on defense. so yes, it is. vonnie: let me bring in kevin cirilli in new york city this week or today, at least. what is rex tillerson want to now out of the g7? he just arrived.
he is supposed to be meeting his russian counterpart on wednesday. what message will he want from the g7? kevin: russian clarity. i think that is what the administration wants this week. will bearly if he joined by boris johnson from the united kingdom as they have these meetings. let's be frank. there were a lot of questions before this two-day summit with the chinese president last week. exactly thisere administration stands with russia. questions not only from democrats but also republicans in his own party. so the fact that the past 72 hours, with what we have seen with how the administration has come out against russia and the different global chess game that is being played for our own eyes -- it has sent a signal that this administration is not afraid to take on vladimir putin in russia. mark: the big event -- today is almost the entree and the big
event is the meeting on wednesday between rex tillerson and lavrov. we don't even know if vladimir putin will snub tillerson. how are things being viewed in moscow? are we witnessing a complete breakdown of the relationship between the u.s. and russia here? the relationship is in deep trouble, obviously. russia is clinging to a trump won'tpe that go beyond the action he took last week in syria. peoplet there won't be challenging russia support for assad. that there are disagreements between the u.s. and russia on a host of issues. syria is the prominent one. a dispute over what is happening andkraine and libya afghanistan, that is another point of contention. so this will be a tense meeting.
vonnie: how wedded to assad is putin and the regime? henry: i think a deal could be done down the road. but the assumption is that at this point he will double down and they will reinforce support for assad. if the u.s. and russia reach some kind of arrangement, we could see russia's position change. italythis meeting in after rexe 10 days tillerson failed to make first impressions with his counterpart's. an acrimonious gathering of nato's top diplomats in brussels. who is to say that today will be any different? certainly are
speaking from the same page when it comes to syria. u.s. received broad support from its european allies for the military strikes. merkelsame time, angela and the french president in a joint statement, they made clear that they want to see some kind diplomatic resolution to the conflict in syria. certainly, when it comes to the prospect of sanctions, i find it hard to see how the europeans union on that. with regards to ukraine. so yes, i don't see how they can step much further forward on that front. mark: coming back to rex tillerson himself, he has endured weeks of criticism
saying he has been sidelined within the trump administration. we do say he traveled to moscow after the airstrikes in syria in boulder and? kevin: i think we have to take a look at congress. when you look at the congressional response in particular from republicans who have questioned him for some tillerson, butt also secretary -- but also trump -- if you take a look at statements from john mccain and lindsey graham -- these are two senators who are not the biggest fans of this rhetoric coming out of russia but they did put out statements that they viewed this as a measured attack and a measured response against syria thewhat that signals for administration's relationship with russia. forgetting about republicans for a second, look at democrats and chuck schumer and nancy pelosi, they will also producing statements following what
and alsowith syria saying they thought this was a measured response. mark: kevin cirilli, thank you. thank you also to alan crawford and henry meyer. vonnie: still ahead, uncertainty with the outlook of the french election. less than two weeks before voting begins, have the election become a four-way race now? that conversation is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
gaining ground. the runoff is may 7 and caroline now. joins us it is a four-way race, isn't it? caroline: it is. it looks very different than what we had at the end of hollandehen francois -- when francois fillon fell back. in produce a patient different rallies over the weekend, and we can see that this is becoming a four-way race. we have to be careful because the margin of ever is around 2%. ofch is the lowest score macron, 23%. you can see that there is still room for a game changer at the last minute.
mark: what is behind the resurgence? is this sustainable? you know what he did on sunday? he did a massive open-air rally and you had up to 70,000 supporters, according to the organizers. it is the second time he has done that with meetings outside in the streets, gathering people who just want to hear more. haven't necessarily voted for the far left in the past but he is managing to attract those voters who may feel disappointed with france -- with francois fillon. attended overle the weekend. vonnie: the second tv debate change the momentum for some of the candidates.
especially marine le pen who went on the defensive little bit. goldman sachs has recommended selling french bonds into the say they thinkey with macron, they are the big cases with the winners. is that fair to say that is the consensus? caroline: yes, it is fair to say -- got the momentum since the last tv debate. lastthe one when we had month. that is where he really started to get closer to the front runners. not underestimate the gas half the day -- you should not underestimate the capacity of france off the lawn because he is stronger than macron. about 80% are sure of their choice which is only 70%. could change their
minds, even inside the polling booth. vonnie:. was caroline conan, thank you. we are following stocks until the end of the monday session. check it out and look at what is happening to the ftse, the dax and the cac 40 today. i can tell you right now that the ftse is little changed. pretty similar to what is happening to the stoxx 600 after four days of gains. have a decline with the stoxx 600. the two weekly winning performers -- this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: this is the "european close" on "bloomberg markets." marco we take you from new york to london in the next hour. beijing, melbourne -- here are the top stories we are following on the bloomberg around the world. global stocks are mixed today. rising geopolitical tensions with shorts in trade. dollars are rising. oil is on track for the biggest gain in a year as libya suffers another outage. thate: jim bullard says america remains in slow growth mode. we have more from the bloomberg interview with you. is the hp bulletin latest company to be targeted by activist investors.