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health care act. the chief is washington correspondent in statuary hall. shannon pettypiece. kevin, let me start with you. at the comings and goings on capitol hill. on the whipsye office. who has been going in and out? chief president trump's of staff reince previous heading into the majority whip office right behind where they are going over the vote counts. lawmakers inhat the house of representatives will look to advance this bill. 12 nore anticipating votes. it is well within the margin of what they are going to be able to do. the white house is hoping to have momentum. this bill is not exactly right and could pose a new political
risk for president trump's health care ambitions. >> what does this look like? what has the congressman been up to? kevin: reince previous has been the point person on these negotiations. from the march 22 failure, when they first tried to advance health care legislation. but in addition, vice president mike pence has been with top republicans since this is someone who has that congressional background. president trump himself working the phones. in thewhat our sources white house saying about that outreach? the chief being on capitol hill? obviously, there are a few things following more closely. they are desperate for a win on
this. it could be great embarrassment that haunted them. especially as they try to tackle things like tax reform, which is the other big one. wait until he gets overhauling the tax system. i think it's interesting to watch, kevin noted how reince previous was the one pressuring lawmakers. but really, what seemed to to the balance on this yesterday was to relatively unknown members of the house of representatives who came together themselves on an amendment that would sort of move the needle a tiny bit. and made them comfortable enough to relate to this over the edge. browbeating, the threats, the calls by previous s, it got them within striking distance of where we are today.
that others have started to fall in line. say aboutt does it the state of republican house leadership at this point? kevin: a great question. and a great point by shannon. i just interviewed a republican from south carolina, someone perceived to be more in the middle among his colleagues. when i asked about the future of this legislation, he said it was "murky." and that the bill was muddying the waters. the pre-existing conditions, one into americans has a pre-existing condition. the $8 billion increase over a is point blankd not enough. 2018hen you had to the midterm election cycle and moderate states, this is an where several prominent folks havehese
strong concerns about it. also holding up the process here in the house. lawmakers here were a little bit uneasy, to say the least. that it will be a very different bill. kevin mentioned was different this time. what role did the white house play for legislative resurrection? the process toward this legislation. the thing the white house did was keep the pressure on. which is important because voting for this bill is not necessarily going to do you any favors in the 2018 midterm election. not voting for it has its own perils. there is a lot of difficult things in this they could get pretty ugly out in the market. the white house really had to
put the pressure on. i think it was the constant phone calls, the constant nagging. as kevin and i were talking to members earlier this week, it was starting to grate on members and backfire. i think this was congress going around the white house, doing what own thing similar to was saw with the budget resolution that passed earlier this week. kevin, this bill does not have a score from the congressional budget office. as you talk to lawmakers, what kevin:is that a concern? i spin the morning in the senate trying to get a feel for where exactly this debate is headed. of in addition to the issue pre-existing conditions, in addition to the health care access and concerns about rural communities or flyover country that we hear a lot about in our current political discourse.
we hear concerns about how much this would cost. in thes a concern senate, a legislative body that moves slower. it that this moved too quickly. it will be interesting to see if president trump and the white house can seize back political momentum. financial you the choice act, the large piece of legislation that will scale back dodd-frank just advanced out of committee this morning. that's headed to a floor vote later this month. this is now a congress that is in full operation and full steam ahead. in withe will check kevin throughout the afternoon. thanks to shannon pettypiece. let's get a check on where the markets stand with julie hyman with the latest. very littleve change at the moment in the major averages. we have been fluctuating in a fairly narrow range today. the three averages nearly unchanged.
especially the s&p 500 and the nasdaq. we saw a tumble a little bit ago in the major averages that seemed to coincide with oil. take a look at the bloomberg. i have an intraday chart of oil in bloomberg -- in orange here. you see the downs the s&p took between 12 noon and 12:15 p.m. oil, by the way, down 4% on the day. oil which has continued down doesn't match stocks. like there wasn't necessarily a correlation there because the s&p 500 in white is now bouncing back to that unchanged level. oil prices definitely have a negative affect on energy. stocks,ook outside of the so-called safety trade. the vix is unchanged. it had been rising earlier today. the yen is still seeing some
buyer -- about .2%. and we are seeing an increase in yield for basis points -- four basis points. it's all over the map if investors are looking for cover today. it in back to stocks. if you look at one big oil stock dragging on the s&p 500 a chevron down 2%. facebook also having a negative in the wake of its cautious comments on ad spending. it is off the low. at&t appears to be under pressure as we see those rising yields today. by a calm has been leading media stocks down. has been leading media stocks down. all over the map in terms of the companies that traditionally have been thought
to be the most affected by health care reform. like molinas healthcare which is more exposed to medicare reimbursed patients. there is really not a consistent theme or consistent trade when you're looking at companies that might be exposed. david: julie hyman with that update. we will talk how this affects business in just a little bit. we will also talk to m.i.t. economics professor jonathan gruber that helped write the affordable care act. he says this bill is not only a failure in substance but also in process. this is bloomberg. ♪
david: this is bloomberg markets, the trump economy. let's check in with mark crumpton with first word news. mark: house republicans have been missing for seven years to repeal obamacare and today they will get a chance to vote on their replacement plan. they haveers say enough votes to approve the health care and send it on to the senate. even though there are some doubts about that. a new amendment has won the support of some moderate republicans, adding money to pay for people with pre-existing bloomberg. they with for our continuing coverage of the house vote on the american health care act. says he istanyahu looking forward to discussing with president trump what he calls the best ways to advance peace. the prime minister added that comments made by the palestinian president that palestinians are cultivating a culture of peace
-- were, in his words, unfortunately not true. no official announcement has been made. antigovernment protest continue to intensify with protesters and police clashing today in downtown caracas. police fired tear gas and dimmest raiders tried to march toward the headquarters of the countries national electoral commission. venezuela has been slammed by protests for weeks which is killed at least 30 people this past month. president nicolas maduro called to a popular assembly rewrite the constitution. the prosecutor's office is investigating whether fake news is being used to influence sunday's presidential election. prosecutors started the probe into counts of forgery and spreading false news after the frontrunner filed a lawsuit. suing rival marine le pen.
it could be holding an offshore account in the bahamas. they quickly backed away and those rumors were debunked. powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. david? the houseking at chamber and continuing to watch congress as lawmakers debate the american health care act. we will get a vote a little bit later this afternoon. i want to focus a bit on process and how we got to where we are. 2009, they helped write that legislation and health care expert. they join us now from outside of boston. great to have you with us. 2009 in 2010.to
republicans are quickly to draw comparison about how quickly that came together. >> it could not be more different. the affordable care act, the process started when obama got elected and culminated 17 months later. hundreds of people participating. a process that was run by a bipartisan group of three democratic and three republican senators. and after multiple official nonpartisan scores from the congressional budget office. you have a republican alternative jammed through in three months with no hearings and without even having a score on what it actually does. we literally do not know what effect this law will have on the budget deficit. -- causet will college an increase in uninsured. the deficit know if will go up or down. david: help me understand how
these legislations are. so that the insured can go up by 24 million. -- the uninsured can go up by 24 million. be a little less and it could be more but it will not materially move. it will be a huge increase for the cost of the sick in the old. the piece that we don't know could move quite a lot is the deficit number. the previous iteration lower the deficit by $150 billion over 10 years. which was not much. this likely increases it. ,he last possible argument there is nothing to recommend this law anymore. it makes insurance more expensive and it increases the deficit. david: looking back at the
process in 2009 and 2010, do you have regrets about how this made its way through the president's desk? >> there was too much effort to reach out to republicans after the summer of 2009. 2009, therepring of was a process with this group of six. three republican and three democrat senators were charged with coming up with the actual legislation. they were closely together. there are all these town halls. republican voters got very upset and republicans were cooperating . they said the republicans are not going to cooperate and have a purely partisan process. but he made an enormous effort. holding a seven-hour meeting,
had this through and explain how the law would work. we've seen nothing like this. legislatione this passed, it goes on to the senate chamber. what is the outlook you have when it goes to the senate? will there be radical changes it gets there? -- change if it gets there? post trump world, i can't make any projections with any certainty. the move to the right may made to get the house freedom caucus will not sit well with moderate republicans in the senate. you will likely see this be declared that on arrival. -- dead on arrival. david: what is the answer as you see it to get to market places around the country? how salient is the competition issue? >> in the competition issue is only salient to the extent that you have zero insurers.
as long as you have one in sure, the market will work fine and other insurers will enter. problem because you can't deliver the subsidies with zero insurers. mechanical problem that under the obama administration they work hard to fix. the big issue is that insurers are facing and norma's uncertainty. they don't like uncertainty -- facing enormous uncertainty. they don't like uncertainty. just pull out of these exchanges rather than deal with that uncertainty. the number one thing folks have to realize, if trump had not been elected, these exchanges would have been working fine. the projection was last year was a one-time aberration. hasuncertainty trump injected will go up a lot more and we will have more exiting. the --jonathan gruber is
>> the american people want to see obamacare repealed. prices are going up 30% a year. we have an amendment that allows the door to open a crack with respect to free markets and letting states opt out of some of the regulations. david: congressman david brat. aetna said it would exit obamacare markets in virginia. it became part of paul ryan's call for action.
republicans must act with urgency and pass the american health care act. if obamacare remains the law of the land, things will only get worse. something thatth jonathan gruber just said before the break. he said of donald trump had not been elected president, a lot of the uncertainty we are seeing would not be there in the marketplace. let's do a little truth squatting of that. how true is that? >> it is pretty true. you have seen the president say -- at least news about undermining obamacare. insurers are all about minimizing risk. all of a sudden, they have all this unpredictability. so their instinct is to pull back and say we don't want to deal with all this crazy uncertainty. david: what are the oppression is a company like aetna faces? what do they say led to the decision? >> they say they will have about
$209 in losses this year. at least. .nd they have pulled back it is still pretty bad. are goingrson losses up this year even after raising prices, going out of state, doing what they can. david: does this debate over potential passage of this bill afford insurers anymore certainty? are they getting into this? -- are they getting it through this? in 2018.ects things they are filing 2018 plans now. a are planning for next year without knowing what the rules of the road will be and it is not a situation they like. david: the surest example we will see of this debt spiral. how does this fit into this? >> one of the situations insurers find themselves in is they don't want to be one of the
last people standing in the state or in an area. in iowa or another state that aetna pulled out of, everybody has pulled out of iowa. of situation that as insurers pullout, premiums go up. it is the death spiral. david: this process that played out in 2009 and 2010 versus the way it is playing now. what role has health care companies been playing in the rewriting of or changing of this iteration? have they been actively involved? >> uc health care companies and thistals pretty opposed to legislation. if they are involved, they are not being listened to. the american medical association, the aarp, ultimately against this bill. if they are providing feedback, it's not being heard. david: are other companies watching aetna?
one big company we are really focused on is and some. -- anthem. they sell under blue cross and blue shield brands. the say they will decide in next few weeks. that is one we are watching closely. see you.eat to his act covers health care for us at bloomberg news in new york. up next, an update on the state of play here as lawmakers prepare to vote on health care this afternoon. a look at the house chamber on capitol hill in washington, d.c. we expect it just a little bit later this afternoon and coverage throughout the afternoon here on bloomberg television. this is bloomberg. ♪
republicans expressing concern about the health care bill making its way toward a vote in the house. south carolina lindsey graham has tweeted -- a bill finalized yesterday has not been scored and amendments not allowed and three hours of final debate should be viewed with caution. house leaders believe they have enough votes to pass the bill but it's state in the senate is uncertain. president trump returns to new york city. fewer than one in five residents in new york voted for him. meetinghis agenda are with the australian prime minister, malcolm turnbull and he will visit a museum aboard the uss intrepid. the president is criticizing former president barack obama's national security adviser for declining to testify at a senate hearing on russian interference in the 2016 election. notweeted today that it is
good that susan rice is choosing not to attend. her attorney says she will not appear before a senate subcommittee next week but two other -- before two other obama officials. and iran have signed onto a russian plan to establish safe zones inside syria in order to shore up a shaky cease-fire. talks in kazakhstan include the syrian government and rebel leaders. the rebels have distanced themselves from the plan partly because i ran is involved. another setback for south africa's president. calls intensify for his removal. anwill not hand over intelligence report that he claims was evidence that the former finance minister was plotting to undermine his government. gordon was abruptly fired as part of a government cabinet which sparked street
demonstrations and a downgrade of the nation's credit rating. president zuma said he will not quit before his term ends in 2019. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. david: turning back to health care and the vote to replace the aca, house leaders and members of the trump administration express confidence that the heaven of votes to pass the bill. megan murphy joins us now as well as kevin cerilli. us parliamentary procedure. we are watching speeches waiting for the vote to happen. a vote in the house can last a long time or a short time. what can we expect this afternoon? inbehind me in the majority statuary hall, i can tell you the top political lieutenants from the white house including chief of staff reince previous have joined the republican whip operation and they are going over a final tally of the vote
count. my sources within the republican conference on the house of representatives side are telling me they feel they have enough votes. they say they can afford to lose 22 members of congress. if more than that vote against it, the vote will fail. house speaker paul ryan has been adamant that he will bring no such vote to the floor unless he has the votes. a senior aide says they are focusing 12 -- they expect 12 republicans to defect which allows them to pave the way to get this to the senate. it's do or die in the house but once this thing gets to the senate, i spoke with two senators including tim who told me the path forward is murky at best. from are a lot of concerns moderates in the senate like senator lindsey graham who feel this piece of legislation does not do enough to cover those who are already insured. of contention is
this is not scored by the nonpartisan budget office. david: nancy pelosi's victim house floor at this moment. we did not get a vote last time. what has the white house learned since that first failed attempt to get this up for a vote? i like the discussion is lindsay graham is a minor it. it's better to get the vote when you have the votes. they think they have the votes they need today and they probably do. what will be interesting to watch is how many republicans and districts they let the fact to give them that political cover they need to not have this hanging over them coming up into 2018 and beyond. there will be many republicans who will be extremely affected by this who will need to say that i stepped away and we did not have a cbo score.
the bill has only come out and they are still parsing language. the white house has gotten better. recently as the beginning of last week, the fact that we get to where we are today in taking a vote is something i don't think a lot of people would have expected. they got their ducks in a row on this thing and they know they cannot go back to their districts and come -- and explain that repeal and replace took seven years. they played their cars a little bit lighter this time but when it gets in the senate, it will be a whole different story. just: how much of this is the house wanting to get this off their plate? they want to get the legislation kicked over the senate? .> they need a whip by choosing to take repeal and replace first, they set the stakes high. the president has said he did not realize how complicated this was going to be.
paul ryan's plan always had unpopular elements and it. pre-existing conditions is a huge factor and is causing huge disarray even the amendment to protect as much of a can. the mechanics of how opting out will work is unknown which is why this bill has a tortuous path. it is really difficult to go not justour district in the towns we talk about in ohio and pennsylvania but in california, new york, florida and say to people you're pre-existing conditions, your health care will be stripped away and be more limited. for not a popular sell people dependent on that care. are -- andependence whose parents are dependent on that care. why do republicans oppose this bill? >> its pre-existing conditions. the senateo republican sources i speak with, they make the case that
representative upton's amendment to this house legislation which would increase funds to pre-existing conditions proposal by $8 billion over five years and they say that's not enough. one senator told me that it's a lowball estimate and that would be $22 billion. put this question to senator rounds, a republican on the senate banking committee. listen to what he had to say. >> the fact that they are trying for those the issue who have pre-existing conditions, to bring that into the process a we protect those individuals that literally recognize they have to be long-term and they have to maintain their insurance coverage is long-term. >> republicans are going to be up for reelection in many of these flyover states. this is thatbehind reince previous has been
deployed by president trump in order to be the goto person in addressing this issue and getting this across the finish line. the sources that i speak with in the house of representatives, corning to one senior white house official, told me there is a preference to deal with vice president mike pence and he himself was up here last night whipping votes himself and that is a dynamic i would continue to watch given the vice president's previous career as a lawmaker himself in congress. david: let's talk about leadership. there is nancy pelosi and many know who she is. people know about fred upton's knees but not fred upton himself. what does this say about republican leadership as to where we are today? >> that's a great point. this has been seen as a litmus test for paul ryan and his ability to get this through. we saw the spectacular failure only 48 days ago to get to a point of the vote, people
wondered if paul ryan pulled a fast one on the president in taking on such a difficult issue. thisanalysts are saying was probably not the way to start for his presidency. on the flipside, the democratic don't see that many of the new generation of democrats able to really mobilize the fight. that's something we will have to watch going forward. the democratic party is focused on resistance or donald trump and not as much focused on offense and how they bring their message to the american people about what they will protect. if they can use health care as a springboard to do that and consolidate the body under a stronger message about the economy and jobs and health care in the future, this could be a defining moment for the democratic party. how much of a template is being corrected when you think about the process for tax reform and regulatory reform? what we saw in terms of how
the spending bill played out was smart politics but not choosing to make a big apple over things like planned parenthood or the wall and letting those issues slip away allowing them to get the spending bill through and taking the ball forward to september. by september, they expect to have several other wins under their belt and i may get something done on health care and will move on to taxes and then a bigger fight about spending. not bad politics. sustainableif it's and as we know with the president, is anyone's game when he will wake up and tweet in the morning and what issue he will be drawn toward. cerilli murphy, kevin in statuary hall. >> thank you, representative blackburn, you were just in the office, do you have the votes to pass health care? >> we are ready to go to the floor and pass it. >> you are in there with reince priebus. how has the white house work with you to push this through
question mark >> they have been great. they made some calls and talk to members and worked with us as we tried to get the answers that people need. changes in the bill, making additions and improving it and making certain first of all that we keep our focus on patients and their health care. that's the goal of this. government delivered health care and it does not work. i give my colleagues a lot of credit and the american people for realizing that this does not work. it's too expensive to afford and too expensive to use. we need to do something different. is the issue of pre-existing conditions adequately settled with representative upton's amendment and are you concerned this was not scored by the budget office questio? >> it is adequately settled. all of this on pre-existing conditions started back in 2006 with the republican bill.
we have been bent on how to do this properly and how to do it so that changes last. the way they did it with obamacare with the essential benefits, did not work and we know there has to be a different way is going to be more affordable and lasting. that's what we have done. when itg by the cbo -- comes to health care, we look at what happens with the formal care act scoring and they were off by millions. they thought there would be over 20 million people in the pool by now. and the cost would be down over $2500 per family. inre are 9 million people the pool and costs of escalated 114% or so. the rate escalation on insurance has been difficult and the networks have narrowed considerably. a how far away are we from
vote and are you concerned that will change significantly when it's in the senate? willthink the senate appreciate the product we send to them. i do not think you will see substantial changes in the senate. i think you will see continued engagement by the white house. >> how far away are we from a vote? >> within the hour, probably the next half hour. >> thank you and we appreciate your time. david: thank you. up, what issues will the gop health care bill face and the senate we will break that down next. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> mr. speaker? >> the house will be in order. >> he called on congress to act and today, we take the next step to repeal and replace obamacare. [applause] want to thank vice president mike pence, secretary price, director maldini and their teams, my colleagues, there is a fundamental and urgent choice at the heart of this debate. we can continue with the status quo under obamacare.
and we know what that looks like. premiums,ven higher even fewer choices, even more insurance companies pulling out, even more uncertainty and even more chaos. look at what has happened in iowa this week. as is the case in so many areas in this country, iowa is down to one insurer. choice course is not a but now that one insurer is saying it will have to pull out of 94 of 99 counties in iowa. this is happening right now. iowans of thousands of will go from having one option to know options. that is not a choice. this is a crisis and it is
happening right now. what protection is obamacare if there is no health care plan to purchase in your state? obamacaree direction is rapidly heading. so we can continue with the status quo or we can put this collapsing law behind us. and this failed experiment. let's make it easier for people to afford their health insurance. let's give people more choices and more control over their care. let's make insurance companies come in and compete for your business. let's return power from washington to the states. let's help get people peace of mind. [applause] patient, not the bureaucrats, at the center of the system. this bill does all of those things.
this bill delivers on the promises that we have made to the american people. know, a lot of us have been waiting seven years to cast this vote. many of us are here because we pledged to cast this very vote to repeal and replace obamacare, to rescue people from this collapsing law. are we going to meet this test? are we going to be men and women of our word? are we going to keep the promises we made? or are we going to falter? no. after all of this, after all of this, after seeing what is happening in iowa and around the country, after seeing this law collapsing while we witness it
across the country, knowing all this turmoil that is coming, we will not falter. we will replace and today is the day we are going to do this. today, this house has the opportunity to do more than just to fulfill a promise. we have the opportunity to raise our gaze and set a bold course for our country. we have the opportunity to show that we've got the resolve to tackle the big challenges in this country before they tackle us. ofstop the drifting arrogance and big government policies our lives and begin a new era of reform based on liberty and self-determination. giving people choices and letting them controlled her own destinies. that is the day that is before us right here. let us pass this bill to take the next step to put obamacare to build a better
health care system for american families. let us pass this bill to lead this country -- to leave this country better than we found a because that is why we are here. that is what is at stake today and that is why i am going to be so proud to cast my vote for this legislation and i urge all of my colleagues to do the same. [applause] david: paul ryan addressing the house as he got to the floor of the house. we are waiting on votes in the house. the vote we are waiting most for his on the american health care act to replace the afford will care act. let's go to stephen denis of covers the senate at bloomberg. if this were to pass the house later today, it would be onto the senate. what are you hearing from senators today as you talk to them in the senate about how
they might support or change the bill if it comes over from the house? >> it looks like we are about to see a real triumph for paul ryan and a few minutes. in the senate, it's a completely different story. republican senators want to take their time and make your they you havecbo score and various groups of senators already meeting, trying to craft changes to this bill and is probably going to need some major surgery to get the support particularly from moderates, people who want more medicaid funding especially in expansion states like west virginia, ohio, colorado, alaska. and they also want to have more generous tax credits particularly for older people who potentially have a spike in premiums because they are allowing insurance companies in this bill to have a 5-1 ratio of all the younger people and premiums. that causes a big spike. a lot of older folks happen to be voters.
that is something they are already working on ways to plus up those tax credit and help out those folks. you also have conservatives like ted cruz why talk to yesterday as well as rand paul who are not in love with the house bill as is. they want to take it in a more conservative direction and allow plans to be sold across state lines, have association health plans and other conservative changes. to republicanlose senators and still passes bill. difficult road to own and there's a huge procedural problem potentially. we will not know until the cbo score comes out and we will not know until the senate parliamentarian looks at this house bill and which pieces survive. we don't even know if the pre-existing condition amendment that was key to getting the conservative votes in the house will survive what's known as the byrd rule and some democrats
said they do not expected to survive. what happens to the building? there is print -- there is plenty of wrangling to happen in the senate and the one thing i would point out as far as optimism are getting this done is all 52 republican senators campaigned on this and they want this and now there is political momentum to do that. there has been a lot of speculation that the bill will come over here and die but they will give it their best shot. it is going to be a tough road to how. you have to get people like ted cruz and others to agree on something. david: we are going to go back vote takingh a place but it's not the vote. what is the house boating on now? what does the speech by the house speaker tell us question mark >> we are going through some procedure right now but this should go through the next 30 minutes.
the white house has been carefully not going after republicans. president trump is saving his fire for democrats. this is a tweet from the president for moments ago, he says i'm watching the democrats try to defend keeping your doctor and your plan and primas will go down obamacare lies. clearly, president trump is not necessarily looking to engage at least publicly about what some of the republicans are pressing him on this issue. privately, my sources of the white house are telling me that they are very much engaged and trying to seize political momentum coming out of the house to pressure the senate. they are looking to get back some of the political -- a have lost. president trump is move back his departure time to watch what happens i presume in the house.
introduce us to the principles. who should we be watching here? on the house side, we know who is working on health care issues but who should we do watching in the senate and who was the white house point person going back and forth to the senate? >> obviously, you have to deal with mike pence. he is the guy who is credibility. when heans trust him walks in the room and is usually at the senate lunches every week so he has been talking to the senate republicans and he is reached out to them not just in the hallways but he has brought -- he has gone to their homes and had dinner with people like susan collins and other senators, trying to build a report and a relationship. me that inns told recent weeks, the administration has gotten so much better at reaching out and talking to her about her concerns on this health care bill. cms sat down with her and talked about their concerns and they are pre-positioning and trying to figure out how to get the 50
senators to sign on board. mike pence would cast a tie-breaking vote. david: thanks to you and thanks to kevin cerilli. we are preparing for a vote on the american health care act a little bit later this afternoon. that is expected to take place in the next half hour and we will be watching the goings on on the floor of the house chamber and will bring you covers this afternoon on bloomberg as we get to and see that vote take place. this is bloomberg. ♪ .