tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg May 12, 2017 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
european close on "bloomberg markets." ♪ mark: in markets, european stocks struggling for direction today, nordstrom becomes the latest retailer to miss earnings estimates. the bloomberg commodity indexes rising for a third day, .ecovering from a 16 month low in m&a news, sprint has started preliminary conversations to merge with t-mobile. we talk about the potential tieups and the $2.2 trillion in deals proposed so far this year. and barclays chief executive falls victim to an email hoax just days after surviving a bruising shareholder bump. aboutmine what that says security at big lenders. we will have a look at where
european equities are trading, 30 minutes until the end of the friday session. little changed on the day for the stoxx 600, which means it's touch and go whether we will rise over the week. we are on track to gain for the third week, which is the best run since january 13, all these currencies are rising against the dollar today. yields declining across europe today. it busy day for earnings. let's get on with it, the biggest steelmaker in germany falling as much as 5.5% earlier. the most since july. it now expects free cash flow in the year through september to be negative, and earlier projection was for slightly positive figure in the current fiscal year. shares falling despite the announcement for the fiscal profit forecast after including its operating performance and agreeing to sell its brazilian steel plant. on the matter of steel, shares
--the world's steer made her steelmaker down 7.5% after it posted first-quarter profit that double beating estimates amid a rally in steel demand. we see steel prices recover across the globe, the rally has been spurred by a curb in record exports from china, which had previously dented prices. growthany, economic accelerated to the strongest pace in the year. last quarter, mild weather boosting consumption, excellent benefiting from recovery, about .6% in line with estimates, .4% was the four quarter figure, 1.7% was the year on your figure. the strong performance of the region's biggest economy is adding to signs of a farming recovery across the eurozone as a whole, leading to much debate over whether the ecb will tweak its forward guidance in june.
the debates will continue. 90 minutes into the trading day in the u.s., julie, what it looking like? julie: the debate for jim is whether the fed is going to raise rates and economic data today is calling that somewhat into question. retail sales and consumer prices coming in lower than estimated. let's talk about the ripple effect in stocks. down,ree major averages the biggest drag is coming from financials as a result of that economic data, we are seeing yields pullback in the treasury market. we take a look at the 10-year note and we are seeing yields fall very we've got some buying going on that taking down the 10 year by five basis points. and then the banks as a ripple effect, financials are seeing declines today, so that's the biggest drag. we also got a tale of two cities when it comes to analyst calls. on the plus side, we have apple, apple shares getting upgraded and the share price target getting updated and at goldman
sachs and bank of america the shares are once again trading at a record. the analyst at goldman says that outside for the stock would be driven by apple's first $1000 iphone and on the flipside, we have general electric and deutsche bank rep -- recommending selling the shares. only the second sell recommendations on analyst -- among analysts. there are concerns about cash flow. we are looking at some accounting issues and reports from a couple of companies, dick's sporting goods saying it is restating its fourth quarter ,nd fiscal 2017 adjusted because it overstated them due to what it calls a conversational error. it's out with whole earnings on tuesday, but shares are down 5.5%. celestial says it is now nearing completion and analysts at jefferies said this announcement provides greater certainty on the potential timing of the completion of this and it lowers the probability or risk of a potential the listing
-- delisting for that company. a tale of two cities when it comes to accounting. mark: let's turn back to europe, finance ministers and central bank governors from g7 nations gathering in italy. it's their first meeting since the g-20 in germany, there was much disagreement over trade. joining us is matt miller. charming fede been chair janet yellen. i just saw janet yellen lockout, they are getting her car ready for now. we have a number of other important people walking out as well, the french finance ministers, and we have seen steve mnuchin's car. very interesting to me as a car guy, he has a toyota land cruiser and a chevy tahoe here. he rides in the toyota, not in the chevy, which i thought was very touching. there comes the treasury -- i thought that was very interesting.
there comes a treasury secretary now. very interesting today. he has been meeting with the german finance minister, he has been meeting the chancellor of the us check or -- the chancellor of the exchequer. we have a bloomberg reporter down there to talk to him as well, and we have double-teamed the g7 meeting here in bari, italy. here,s a lot going on talking trade, which initially was supposed to be off the agenda, they weren't supposed to focus on that. but also talking a lot about greece and intra-european issues as well as global growth, very important all these finance ministers here. mark: only matt miller could get cars and toyota into a g7 conversation. as you say, many have addressed trade. part of it is so tricky because greases and they are. in the subject of greece, what
has been said? an interesting solution floated by some of the ministers , the possibility of a debt swap. the imf has to be on board for a debt deal to be done with greece , and the european commissioner with whom i spoke last night says he is optimistic they will have a deal by may 22, the eurogroup meeting in brussels. the imf is very much a stickler for things like repayment schedules and budget forecasts. when some people are thinking about doing is swapping out eu debt from the esm for imf debt. it's lower interest rate and also making the imf feel a little lighter as far as their debt load is concerned. maybe with that, they can get on board. >> we need the imf on board, we want the imf on board and the imf is involved.
it includes all institutions, meaning as well ourselves -- the commission, the ecb, the central and of course, the imf. the imf is a partner that is trusted. todayhe also tells us that the ministers here have been encouraged by treasury 's optimism onhin global trade. the u.s. just got its trade deal with china, which secretary mnuchin told us this morning they're very excited about. vonnie: what is the thinking on the strength of europe right now following the election of macron? the french finance minister may not be the french finance minister within a couple of weeks. is the sense that europe is strengthening or weakening? something thatis
everyone here is very optimistic about, because whether or not the ministers still has this role a couple of weeks, macron is very pro-european. this is another thing i spoke to moscovici about. we have other elections coming up, notably, the german election. i asked him what the election of macron means the possibility of martin schulz or angela merkel sitting in the chancellery this september. lucky andmans are this is not a source of concern, because whoever is the next german chancellor will be a strong leader, dedicated for europe. he is a frenchman also, so he is very happy for this election. he was concerned initially about the popularity of le pen, because of his pro-european stance and he expects either choice for germany will be a good one. vonnie: how has the reception
been for the u.s. finance minister, as far as you can tell? matt: yesterday he had a one-on-one meeting with the italian finance minister, janet yellen was in there with them as well. today, he didn't show up to the meeting until about two hours after most of the other ministers did. so everyone else was here from 8:00, 8:30, and secretary mnuchin didn't get here until 10:30. no word on whether he was jet lag or he had other meetings or you didn't want to go to that particular panel discussion. or haveis a technical you seen before a federal reserve chair at these meetings? they are typically at the fiscal policy level, right? matt: we do. on the fiscal track you do see the central bank heads here as well. so mario draghi is here as well as all of the other central bankers. they come with their treasury secretaries or ministers. thank you, matt miller
in bari, italy. let's check in on first word news. lawyers say trump's he doesn't get any income from russia, plus they say you doesn't go any money to russian lenders. the lawyers say that comes from a review of the president's tax returns for the last 10 years, they did not release copies of those returns. attorney general jeff sessions is instituting a new policy that is certain to send more people to prison for longer terms. sessions has told federal prosecutors to pursue the most serious charges possible against most suspect, a reversal of obama era policy that aim to to ease overcrowding and federal prisons. preparing to cement ties with president trump by making unprecedented investment in the u.s. according to people familiar with the matter, the saudis will announce plans to invest as much as $40 billion in u.s. of, and that may happen next week to coincide with president trump's visit to the country. the pentagon is reassuring turkey of american support after
agreeing to arm kurdish fighters that the turks consider terrorists. defense secretary james mattis met with turkey's prime minister, the first face-to-face contact since the u.s. said it would supply weapons to kurds fighting islamic state in syria. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe, this is bloomberg. mark: coming up, global m&a deals are picking up. we take a closer look at the french advertising firm, and reports that sprint started talks with t-mobile. this is bloomberg. ♪
i'm vonnie quinn. mark: live from london, i'm mark barton, counting down to the european close. let's turn to m&a, the latest on big potential deals in the works today, a busy day. vivendi's offer for a french advertising firm, sprint said to have started talks with t-mobile. david, us is ruth everything you needed to know in a function about m&a. let's get specific. and we will talk more generalities. it was always on the cards, vivendi? it was just a matter of time. ruth: they had indicated that this combination would make sense. some analysts are calling it a left-handed, right hand kind of deal. in the french market a few weeks ago, there was a similar thing. you are kind of sitting back and
wondering if this is the market where the friendly deal where you have billionaires consolidating their holdings and some other different companies, because even today's deal will raise takes in both of them. those are the ones that might be the new trend where things can get done. mark: is there a conflict of interest here? ruth: yes. and that is something that analysts have spoken about. havas is buying advertising from companies owned by vivendi. i guess regulators will have to wait and see. vonnie: how other companies finding financing for all these deals? a lot of 11 --ruth: the deals we are seeing right now are ones for you have both cash and stocks. just do these big cash
deals, so they are trying to see how much of that they can get done through stocks. we are seeing this in europe as well as the u.s., that shareholders are really open to m&a. you saw the stock of vivendi today was up 5%, earlier in the week when you head coach by kate had coachedn you buying kate spade, investors are they were getting into deal. there's a good appetite for m&a, but we have to see how the regulatory hurdles are passed. if you look at the m&a function and you see there are $700 billion in pending deals and only $200 billion of deals that have actually gotten done, you can imagine how much needs to go through regulatory ok's for those deals to get completed. vonnie: tell us about the sprint offer. why now? ruth: for one year, the telecom players were not allowed to talk to each other. and that ended april 27.
so now, you are seeing these -- softbank owns that stake in sprint, he cannot and said he would like the talks to begin. you have the deutsche telekom ceo, say that. and once this happened, sprint t-mobile is one combination. you can imagine it will have a domino effect on other players. this is an interesting time for them to be doing it, because you have the trump administration already looking at time warner and at&t, that's getting cleared. you will be a good test what they think about consolidation in the telecoms days. mark: two major assets is what the head called t-mobile. willy wonka part with it -- we know he wants to part with it? 12:18, we are 10 minutes ahead of the end of the session. confirming with
vonnie: a gorgeous day in midtown manhattan. i bet it is in london. live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. mark: we may agree to disagree. i mark barton with the european close just minutes away. vonnie: elian's is confirming its commitment to pimco, saying it has no plans to put its u.s. money-management business for sale. bloomberg talked to their ceo, dieter wemmer, about performance. >> we are $200 million ahead of our outlook for the year. insurance is always a volatile business. it's too early to address the
outlook. is really that pimco great term for recovery. we had already a great last quarter in q4 and now q1 continues and i think q2 will also continue with the success story of pimco. >> how sustainable do you see that success at pimco? clients flocking two-year pimco income funds. how sustainable are the inflows? what do you see in the crystal ball? mr. wemmer: the crystal ball is that pimco is really doing nicely and is recovering. i think we should also understand that we are in a very volatile world and i think we enjoy the quarters as they come and we hope we can surprise more often in the coming quarters. >> we will take the surprises as they come.
tell us about your appetite for m&a. you spoke to my colleague earlier on this year and said is not on the immediate list, but the opportunities would be evaluated. given the strength of the performance right now, do you have more appetite to do m&a? and if so, with that come in the united states? -- would that come in the united states? mr. wemmer: with $2.9 billion in spoiled areofits party to reach for the first times. we have a lot of organic potential in the company to produce profit. if there comes an opportunity, we take it. but then it's really opportunistically -- we are executing strikes on our $3 billion share buyback, we have various capital positions, so we can really move in all
sit andns and we can wait and look for good opportunities. >> you announced the big share buyback and i know you have talked in the past about having the infrastructure in place to do more if you decide to. is there any interest in doing further share buybacks in the future? we don't expect the many quarter -- every quarter, but any insight? mr. wemmer: let us first execute the $3 billion, at the end of march, we had executed roughly or close to $1 billion. since the shareholder meeting, we continue to execute because we have to stop from a legal point of view before the shareholder meeting. first finish the $3 billion and we talk about next steps. >> are we through the worst of the impact? give us an update on how that is impacting your company?
you seem a little disappointed in the impact it had. mr. wemmer: it is not a top line ,mpact, it's a reserve strength which last year cost us roughly a percentage point in our combined ratio. it's truly a one-off, i think the u.k. market has certainly a good recovery in rates. rate of translate the -75 basis points in the macro outlook for the u.k. economy, i think it's a very grim outlook for the u.k. economy, and that's why i was really surprised that somebody would have a long-term so negative view on its own country. ceo dieterianz wemmer earlier on bloomberg. mark: we are five minutes away from the end of the friday session, and stocks are higher over the day, over the week
getting a little bit of a push at the end of the friday session. a critique of the currency board today, the big data points in germany was gdp. look at that, the euro is up against the dollar and the pound today. how long is it going to take before we cross $1.10? ,ields down in the u.k. germany, spain, and italy. the week was dominated by the end of the french election campaign and mario draghi's comments yesterday, all of which we will discuss with richard jones, who is eagerly sitting in the wings. this is bloomberg. ♪
telecom stocks, the big merger that took place in merger -- germany today. pimco sawood out and the biggest third-party inflows --pimco'sst quarter income fund is boosting revenue allianz.s -- little changed for them today. thee is one piece of m&a plans to take over. it is a 3.9 billion euro deal. warm a pretentious -- it faces the potential for conflict of interest.
vivendi up by 4% today. equities haven't raised in china since april about half $1 trillion because of this crackdown on leverage, falling for a fifth week outside of china. the rsi is below 30 for the index and the rsi -- the main gauge is down by 7%. global stocks are 2.8% high. look at the disparity between the shanghai confidence. it is the lowest going back to 2014. how is it looking there? vonnie: fascinating. we are off the extremes of the week. i do not want to say high or low. we start with the vix and we are well above 10 again. it doesn't sound like a lot, but when you consider we had been below 10% over the weekend, that is quite the move.
10-year yield was above 241 yesterday and now at 2.33. the korean yen had a big move 1127.o 1200 down to let's move to gmm, global macro movers and i am looking at the g 20 movers right now. you can see the dollar index may be consolidating a little bit. yields, -- thet front end is flattening just a little bit again having widened about 105 basis points or so. we will get to abigail doolittle because she has more details on everything. abigail: let's take a look at retail. we are seeing more carnage. today is jcpenney and nordstrom.
yesterday we had cold and macy's -- macy's and kohl's down in a big way. jcpenney missed by 285 basis points -- 280 basis points to down -- to come down 3.85%. nordstrom missed by 80 basis points and analyst are saying the stock is best in class, but bloomberg intelligence analysts make the point that they could close stores -- jcpenney could close stores. they are trying to control traffic to the stores, but new -- more consumers are shopping online. we have a number of high-profile reports next week faring a little bit better. look at home depot trading higher by half a percent. ticking a look at walmart, target and t.j. maxx, these stocks are trading lower, but our team was told that on walmart they think it will be an ok quarter driven by food and traffic could be helped by gas.
we also have target trading lower and she thinks they could be under pressure by traffic and she would be surprised if they make numbers. t.j. maxx down today, but they think that is a bright spot in the retail space and expects them to do well. that is one of segment benefiting from their lower-priced items and she thinks the home category is very strong. mark: thank you very much. in the u.k., the brexit assumptions did not quite convinced market skeptics. likelihoodstion the of such an outlook, sending the pound down against the dollar. it is headed for the work -- headed for the first weekly drop in more than a month. this is the bar chart which shows the weekly decline. what is governor mark carney --
is the bank of england right to base its forecast on a smooth brexit? ifthey are right to say that brexit happens smoothly, rates will have to go up quicker than the market is currently anticipating. as you said at the opening of the segment, investors do not believe that. i do not think anybody believes given what we have seen so far that the brexit process will be smooth and the deal will be as all-encompassing as the prime minister would like. therefore, we have a bumpy road ahead and that is not something they are sharing with the market. nok: no bumping us in -- of thess in my battle charts yesterday. this was the victor yesterday that shows the lack of volatility, the calm ahead of the election. when you look at the other key political events in recent years, brexit, 2015, scottish
referendum, there is no sign of worry, which is refreshing given what we experienced pre-french election. richard: i think what this means for the pound is in the short-term, by dan amick -- the dynamic is that the pound has seen shorter upside. it would not surprise me if you saw it above one dollar 30 -- $1.30. for the time being, low volatility and the pound probably does all right. no big surprises to expect from the election. sonnie: we had a lot of fed speak today. listen to what charles edmonds -- charles edmonds had to say yesterday. -- today. >> if anything, except for the
first quarter data was weaker than i would've hoped for, we are kind of looking for the second quarter to make up for that so it averages closer to my two and a quarter rate increase. vonnie: what is the verdict? targets seemed a little bit -- markets seemed a little bit confused yesterday and that there may be needs to be more than the three per year outlined by the fed. it somehow doesn't feel like the economy can take it. richard: i think as charles evans says, it is important what the data does in the second quarter after a soft first-quarter. i think the problem we have had all along is the soft data is saying things are going along nicely, yet the hard data is not bearing that out. the retail sales data we saw a couple hours ago is pointing to that saying it is going to need to be drunk or than that if rognosis will' p
come true. i think the fed is on course to do another two rate hikes this year. if it is going to be more than that i think they will need to see the data pick up more than it has up to now. vonnie: exactly and what channel would that come through? are we going to see -- need to see wage growth or will the market price it in and the rate will follow? richard: i think you hit it on the head. this exists for the federal reserve and the be ooe -- and the boe. i think you are right to highlight wage growth and i think the other thing they are watching that is important for the u.k. and the u.s. is retail sales because the consumer is important to both economies and the data we have seen so far this year has not been all that encouraging. mark: x comment on the french
election. two basis has risen points this year -- this week. what would bring the spread narrow? what is going to narrow this spread further. ? 'schard: i think if mr. macron party does well, we would see that spread narrow. mark: good answer. i will not get yelled at by my producer. courtney: there has been a breakthrough in trade talks between the u.s. and china. an agreement will allow more exports of u.s. national gas and beef exporters will have greater markets to chinese markets. >> we have a lot more issues to deal with with the people's republic of china and i believe that the fact that we've got these long-standing aggravations
-- of the way so quickly well for the relationship pattern going forward. the first tois negotiate a trade deal for president trump who promised to get tougher on china. his lawyers say he does not know any money to russian lenders. that comes from a review of the presidents tax returns -- president's tax returns, but did not release copies of the return. according to people familiar with the metal, treasury --retary steve mnuchin has barring banks from betting on markets with their own capital. critics say it has made banks too conservative and dried-up liquidity in certain markets. the european union will hold a phone call with john kelly about expanding the laptop ban on planes headed for america. the restriction is already in
place on travel from some middle .astern airports there are concerns laptops could be used to hide bombs. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. donohoe.tney this is bloomberg. up, a--vonnie: coming rough week for barclays's jes staley's. after mishandling a whistleblowing case, he was also tricked into responding to an email hoax. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
you've got mail. that doesn't mean you should trust it or open it or reply to it in a certain way. that may be what barclays ceo jeff staley may take away from it. bloomberg editor at large erik schatzker spoke with staley this weekend in an exclusive interview. we will get his take on it because he is back in the studio with us now. obviously this wasn't out by the time you interviewed yesterday. andt took place hours after i will point out somewhat ironically -- not even somewhat, ironically jeff staley and i after we concluded our -- concluded our interview had been on theing points of view have of email and here we this unfortunate incident where he was duped into responding to an email that was purportedly sent by barclays chairman.
bynie: how do you get duped an email like that? do you really respond to that thinking it is the chairman of the board? erik: i might not, you might not, he did. why? , cannot speak for jeff staley but it came at the end of an unusually drama filled, busy day. he was really -- really elected -- reelected to the board, he responded to the whistleblower case, he had to do an interview with me, and at some -- some point in the evening we are told at about 9:00 p.m. this email came in and he responded to it. it is quite possible and reasonable to suggest that his guard was down and he wasn't thinking. a dangerous thing for a ceo to
do. mark: you are essentially taking the blame for this, well done. vonnie: erik schatzker let this happen. mark: the focus will turn to you now, the blame. barclays is obviously at the epicenter of cybersecurity. that is worrying, one would think. erik: say that again, i missed the last debate. mark: barclays is at the center of cybersecurity. erik: it is a cybersecurity issue although it is not a failure of our clays -- our cyber-- barclays' protections. a failure of judgment is what is -- what occurred and what led to the whistleblower case. that is something shareholders need to evaluate, but i want to help people understand the way shareholders need to evaluate
this because british regulators that have the senior manager's regime that they use to measure the accountability of a ceo do the same thing and here is jeff staley talking about the senior managers regime. there is accountability and how he believes they are looking at him. >> i believe executives should be held accountable. i think the senior manager's regime is a very important piece of regulation in the united kingdom. since i have got here, one of my very transparent with regulators and in many ways, we are partners in trying to avoid the next financial crisis. there is a very constructive dialogue between barclays and the bank of england and the fca that is important to us. i respect the regulatory framework here and let's just see how this all plays out. erik: so what is the point of sharing that excerpt in the
interview, it is because regulators are evaluating his fitness for the job and judgment is part of the fitness for the job. let's be clear in how we compare the situation at barclays to the situation at other banks. mark, yesterday we compared the of johnn with that stumpf and wells fargo. let's consider some of the other ceos that have been ousted over the past several years. bob diamond and a pinnie jenkins. .- anthony jenkins why were they ousted or fired? they were ousted or fired from failures of management or failures of supervision, not for responding to a phony email, not for trying to defend someone which is what led to the whistleblower case. there is a different to be drawn. i am not trying to defend jeff staley, i'm am trying to point out the way you look at this situation needs to be different
from the way you look at those other situations. employee terms, do you want to work for amanda looks for whistleblowers -- a man that looks for whistleblowers trying to figure out who is the person alling tales and demanding -- man who writes to his chairman saying how do i thank you, you are a unique man and you have a sense of what is right, you mix humor with grit -- i mean, come on, do you really want to be working for this man? : i am not working for him and i have no reason to work for him. there are some employees that will look at the way he responded to john mcfarland and say that is the kind of relationship i want my ceo to have with my chairman and there are probably others, undoubtedly others who want. to your -- who walked. to your point, employees need to
evaluate for themselves whether that is the kind of ceo they want to work for and if they don't, that will become apparent. what is it that jeff staley needs to do at the bank? he needs to restructure the bank which he is almost finished doing and needs to find ways to generate a return on equity and a return on growth. that is what is important to a the employees and maybe the shareholders. vonnie: and maybe take 10 or 15 minutes to do a compliance online course as well. thanks to bloomberg's erik schatzker. mark: battle of the charts, it is friday, the perfect day to take a look at the purchasing power of the big mac versus nerd -- nonretail -- i will say that again -- it is fry-day. this is bloomberg.
vonnie: it is time for our global battle of the charts where we take a look at the most telling shards of the day and what they may mean for investors. charts of the day and what they may mean for investors. u.s. makes athe trade deal for china which gives to. beef producers access chinese markets and that got me thinking about two things, burgers and purchasing power. says relative goods should cost the same. is that true? we decided to use burgers as our basket of goods so we used the big mac index and you can see the cost of a big mac in the u.s. is just about five dollars $2.83.china it is
so what exchange rate would you mean for it to cost the same? you crunch the numbers and the dollar- yuan exchange rate would be much lower than the current rate of $6.89. the disclaimer there, the big mac index shows the yuan is undervalued. that is my chart. mark: what a great chart. sorry, go on. vonnie: i think we going to go to christine. mark: we are. what have you got? is graduating17 soon and here is advice from a much derided millennial such as myself, think twice before you sell your handcrafted jewelry on the etsy shop. i am looking at u.s. retail sales and the non-store
component, including sales from online retailers that remain strong. almost a straight diagonal yellow line, that is the positive. -- in thise is that segment are not consistent. it is not necessarily a ontainable source of living this front. maybe keep this as a second option rather than your first choice. a check out this chart. millennial,ing a should i mark you down? how does one judge this fairly? vonnie: you are just barely out of the millennial demographic, so i feel like you are close to millennial's. mark: verily is a polite way to put it. i am going to go for the big mac today. vonnie: i was just reading about etsy and as much as i love the
idea of the big mac, i am going to go with christine today. which puts it to the gallery three if you are going for christine and i am going for emma is the winner. vonnie: our producer is in the control room. she also said she is hungry as well, so that didn't hurt. you can get big macs if you go to china for your money. mark: we will have a look at how european equities finished the friday session. this is bloomberg. ♪ --athan: from new york city,
i am jonathan ferro with 30 minutes, this is bloomberg real yield. ♪ coming up, valuations remain elevated, volatility sinks. the epicenter of the reflation trade comes unstuck and china's deleveraging campaign rocks commodities. where are the investors who turned bullish? we start with a big issue. is low volatility a sign of investor complacency? >>