tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg May 15, 2017 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
mark: here are some of the top stories we are covering on bloomberg and from around the world. politics -- emmanuel macron laying out his agenda for france. in germany, angela merkel's reelection chances. me, weon and merkel could look at -- we will look at what this duo could mean for the future of europe. in the u.k., prime minister may's government is stepping up its fight over the right to european citizens living in the u.k. bitterould lead to some pills for investors to swallow. measuring president trump's impact on the u.s. dollar, we ,ill speak with komal sri-kumar
who is calling for a rebound in the greenback over the medium-term. we will have a look at european equities but, -- european equities, about 30 minutes away. germany,ecord high in record high for the ftse 100 in london. the european gauge, the stoxx 600 is little change. -- is little changed. the second column, bonds, commodities, cds's, crude rallying 2.5%. opec, non-, will they extend their production cuts in saudi arabia? russia says the answer to that is yes. atlanta is bidding to buy spanish -- a spanish competitor. 63.4 billion euro offer that would create the biggest operator of toll roads. the italian infrastructure company offering 16.5 euros per share for 100%.
that is .3% higher than the closing price in madrid on friday. the big move came a month ago, when this deal was leaked or news surrounding the deal came out. atlanta seeking to boost site andby acquiring italy to reduce dependence on its home market. shares are little changed today. i thought we would look at , at levels wets have not seen before the -- since before the credit bubble first. that could signal improving conditions that were vulnerable in the 2013 taper tantrum, but it also shows valuations have reached expensive territory, according to pine bridge investment. just finishing off with ubs, we are getting to breaking news from ubs, one of its big shareholders is selling part of
its stake. that is singapore's gic. it is to sell up to 2.4% of ubs. there you go. this is the ubs shares. european shares down by 1.1%. i just checked our hds function, a wonderful function telling us who are the big shareholders. gic was the biggest holder of at 5.7% today. it is selling up 2.4% in ubs, down by 1.1%. how is itlender, looking over their? julie: we continue the rally in the u.s. the nasdaq and the s&p are on track for a record close. energy is leading the pack. however, it is not just energy, it is a broad-based rally we are seeing in today's session. some headlines crossed a few minutes ago. one stock is now plunging. it is a company called exact
sciences. over $3 million market cap, this company makes a test to screen first -- to screen for colon cancer. citroen research, which is a notable shortselling firm, is recommending investors sell the stock, saying it could be worth zero dollars, in part because this test it has been selling is not as effective as a colonoscopy, and the prescription increase rate has been going down. a recommendation increased rate is going down. out for any kind of reaction to this. turning away from that, let's take a look at stocks affected by this ransom ware attack. we have the hack etf we talked about earlier, up 3%. also, microsoft on this -- microsoft has a patch to address
the ransom ware attack. apparently it made it aware -- it made it aware of this in march. the shares are down a little bit today, and finally cisco, as well as being upgraded to overweight today. there is a says paradigm shift to security defined networks, and that will benefit cisco not based on just this attack, but in general. we are watching oil prices, but not just oil. we have oil moving up because of the talk by russia and saudi arabia to extend production cuts. we have gold also training higher, and we have four straight losing sections for the -- straight losing sessions for the dollar. down .33%. u.s. supreme court has dealt a surprise blow to the voter identification movement. justices refused to reinstate north carolina ballot
restrictions. state republican leaders supported the restrictions, which required voters to show a voter id, and reduce the number of early voting days. governments and companies around the world have started to gain the upper hand in this unprecedented cyber attack. authorities say more than 200,000 computers in 150 countries were infected with that so-called ransom ware. the u.k.'s national health service says most securities are back to normal. french carmaker renault says 90% of its families have -- of its factories have resumed operation . north korea warns that it could over its latest missiles long distances. it could hit u.s. forces on the island of guam. the u.s. ambassador to the united nations, nikki haley, says the latest test shows that
kim jong-un is in a state of paranoia. vonnie: matt miller joins us now from our bureau in berlin. this is not only important for angela merkel but for mr. scholz. what this he now do? matt: her challenger has a lot of problems now. this is the that most populous state in germany, also an industrial heartland. wins that.lz party this is only the second time to have lost that state in 50 years, and they had their lowest showing since world war ii. so the spd, the center-left
party in germany, is really showing some weakness. three losses in a row in state elections, and many onlookers say that this could put the pdu, angela merkel's party, ahead for the national elections, although they have four months to go until those elections. this effectively give angela merkel carte blanche when it comes to negotiating brexit, in the next six to 12 months? matt: it gives her a stronger voice. just a few months ago, talk was of martin schulz's soaring popularity, a real challenge to angela merkel in her fourth run for chancellor, but that has all died away now. emmanuel mack ron, the new president of france, just installed officially yesterday to meet, came today with angela merkel.
there is a lot of talk over whether this is the dream team for europe, whether they can do things together with angela merkel's experience and emmanuel that talkxcitement, has left martin schulz out. even though macron and schulz are really allied with their view on the future of europe. get more insight on the geopolitical risks facing europe after the elections of germany and france, with the upcoming brexit negotiations. joining us now, roger bootle, a specialist advisor to the house of commons treasury committee. roger, thank you for joining us. ,ince the election of macron does that harold great things for france? roger: i doubt it. france, and the euro project are going through a honeymoon period.
this is more comfortable than if marine le pen had won. but the barriers he has got to overcome are absolutely enormous. i would not be fooled by all of this handshaking and gladhanding and smiling. to pull something off, he could do something quite remarkable. it is not so much getting the majority of the french assembly. is not only the assembly, it is on the streets. macron andabout merkel? what does their relationship mean for the future of the e.u. project? how are they going to mold or mesh together, roger? early to tell.o this is a much better relationship that would have existed between marine le pen and angela merkel, but from a policy point of view, i think probably macron would have preferred it if he had been
negotiating with mr. schulz. it is looking less and less likely. i think we are going to find angela merkel a pretty tough nut to crack. the fact of the matter is, germany does not want to give any ground on its traditional stance. what macron has come they're saying is that he is not just isng to reform france, he going to put the whole euro project back together. the problem is, it is not in his gift. he needs angela merkel to do that. vonnie: what if he sets a good example? is it possible for him to change the labor laws in france that might set that example for the rest of europe? roger: there are some things he might be able to do. past the french people -- i don't mean the french assembly, it is going to be externally difficult. it will take some time for the fruits of this to come through. even if he manages a radical
reform program, what it takes to get the eurozone right is a pretty tall order. we are talking about essentially cooling fiscal management between countries, and ultimately not just between france and germany but across the whole eurozone. that is a very difficult thing to do. are readyle in europe for that. i do not think the people of germany are. mark: e.u. governments have tightened the brexit position. they are toughening their language. on latest dropped stance traditional arrangements, citizen rights, clarifying the european cause. when the negotiations properly get underway, -- roger: i do not think things will stop properly -- will start properly after june 8.
we have to wait for the german elections because angela merkel will not be in a position to play ball seriously until she knows she has her election in the bag. it is quite possible we are going to end up with a nasty battle. mark: talk to me about the bank of england, roger. in the wake of last thursday super thursday, the attention 's wagemark carney projections, some might say optimism over the progression of wages into the distance. today we have heard from -- they say britain is facing a rocky labor market. that will limit improvement in wage growth. are you more on the side of the bank of england, or are you more cautious in this pathway of wages over the two to three-year period? roger: frankly, we just do not know. that there is a good chance we will see some sort of
pick up in wage growth. i expect the economy overall is doing pretty well. we may well see an increase in productivity growth. to get real and comes up. it is not nominal earnings that matter. u.k.'s performance has been appalling. that is one reason we may be getting better. we will find both employees and employers over the next couple of years being cautious, because like everybody else, they will worry about brexit. they will not want to take that many risks. it might be in the future that we get the pace of wage increases picking up. book, don your latest you foresee a stronger or weaker
europe without britain? depends on what you are referring to. some ways, it will be stronger. has been anthe u.k. awkward so once a. there are people who think it will be easier to push forward with integration without the u.k. having said that, it is not the u.k. that has been stopping integration. we did not join the euro, but that did not stop the others pushing forward. europe is going to be weaker. weaker diplomatically, in a military sense, it will be small, economically. will join the net contribution -- will lose the net contribution to the budget. how much do you think you will andy up paying -- end up
paying? is there a figure? the 100ll i know is billion -- even the 50 billion or 60 billion, there is a whistle for that. we don't know if there will be continuing annual contribution. of aneeds to be traded off 60, a divorced amount. next up, we are going to discuss the impact of president trump's policies on europe. ♪
to the policies of donald trump. the with us, roger bootle. he did not lose his job in the last 20 minutes. apologies for that. trump. discuss. rather than throwing a question at you, i am going to say trump, discuss. proved to berk has worse than his bite. it shows the strength of the american system, how difficult it is for a president to get things through. it is his style that worries me. it is these outbursts and seemingly erratic behavior, the tweets in the middle of the night. that stuff is concerning. good in the sense compared to the alarm he created
when he was elected. we are still waiting. do you have high hopes we will see tax reform? roger: i think we will get tax reform. i doubt whether the scale of fiscal expansion, whether that will get through. i am not sure it will be a great thing for it to get through. important point, an economic one. the u.s. is doing well, along with most of the economy globally. fundamental economics are very important. gets a fiscal expansion through, that will increase the upward pressure on u.s. rates. the big story in america and the economy -- the american is pretty strong.
interest rates are going up fast. the issue is -- how are the financial markets going to react? vonnie: we are at 240 on the 10 year. if we get some measure of fiscal spending, what is your take on the whole thing? it is interlocked. if you do not get fiscal spending, inflation will be more of a problem. that is right. inflation holds the key. in the past, central banks have reacted too late to rising inflationary pressures. the fed has to be cautious of that. they do not want to react too soon and send the economy southward. the background, it must realize there is a very long period of low interest rates has so the , potentiallyicult
dangerous and damaging financial distortions. inflationit to see pressures convincingly rising. if and when that happens, it will move faster than the markets expect. we cannot afford to be caught napping. vonnie: are their troubles on the horizon? some are saying the vix at this troublesa harbinger of . it would be surprising if there were not significant financial difficulties arising when interest rates carry on going up, after this long period of low rates. if you ask with the central banks thought they were doing, they were trying to boost demand through the monetary channel, making people, encouraging people, rotting people to do
actions they would not have done. when that happens, it includes dodgy things. it materializes afterwards. mark: worst case and aria when those things start to come. scenario when those things start to come. roger: you have securities not worth as much as people thought they were. last time, it was property in the states, called subprime. who knows what the problems are this time. mark: thank you. roger bootle. vonnie: a very enjoyable conversation. speaking of trump, he will speak soon at the national peace officers memorial service at the u.s. capitol. catches or marks on bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪
had to the close, roughly five minutes away. stocks are unchanged in europe. record high in london and frankfurt. little change for the stoxx 600. a quick peak of the currency board. data, i will leave you with the bond board. stocks are rising. four minutes away from the close, this is bloomberg. ♪
optimism opec next week will extend, maybe deepen that production cut. that's the message we got from russia and saudi arabia over the weekend. earlier, we rose to the highs in 21 months. how long is this rally going to last? this is the euro stoxx 50. this is the average year end forecast from analysts. where we are now is above the average year end forecast. some say the market could quickly reflect the potential for earnings. and actually, we're about 3% above the average year end forecast. so the suggestion from the strategists we survey at bloomberg is the euro stoxx 50 as seen its high for the year. it's up by double digits. this is gold and emerging markets. this chart shows us how they're increasingly moving together. gold is a traditional safe haven emerging market bonds are priced in dollars.
that might have something to do with it. it's more to do with half assets than the fact that they're emerging market assets. they're moving closely together. and the correlation is very high. high sense 2012, vonnie. and really quickly, this is the breaking news story that we want to focus on. a downward move in u.b.s. singapore funds setting a 2.4% stake in u.b.s. it's an offering that will raise 1.54 billion swiss francs. g.i.c. will hold less than 3% in shares of u.b.s. i looked at our function that tells you who are the big shareholders. yes, you guessed it. we had g.i.c., the biggest shareholder. when it bought in 2008, it ught bonds that converted in stocks in 2010.
and it became its biggest investor of the securities. shares down by 1.5%. vonnie: it's been a great indicator with the dollar index. a little -- no word today but generally, we are a little bit stronger than we were last week, closing in on 99 once again. singles for the dollar-yen, that's 114. there was a breaching point last week. we're back below that. 49.19, a gain of 2.8% for croyle and that's happening -- crude oil and that's helping the ruble strengthen. it hasn't been a great day to some other currencies though. let's move to g.m.m.
you can see that many of the indies are in the green. h -- indices are in the green. tear not bad time, a lot of weakness the last couple of months. so perhaps today is a little bounce there as well. let's get to abigail with a deeper look at the u.s. dollar. >> and that's the story of the year. it's been a rough year for the dollar. down more than 3% since 2009. let's take a look at what this does look like in a chart. this is the year-to-date decline. we say that the 50-day moving ample is above the 200-day moving average setting up what's known as the death cross. it's pretty braeschish and all-in dvop drop of about 10% within this range. the longer term view may support
that. this is the dollar index. out of the financial crisis. first of all, we do see a nice uptrend as the economy improved. and there's lots of optimism. e see that the dollar index is in the longer term resistance. it could at least move to the middle of that range toward 94 or 84. it does look pretty bearish. bitcoin moving up. big swings here for bitcoin. and of course, we do have those ransom ware attacks where bitcoin is the currency of choice using those attacks, mark, but look at bitcoin. spiking well higher on that dollar index weakness.
mark: let's bring in a global strategies gist -- strategist. love throw have you here in london. lest look at a chart which you nodded when i brought it up. i knew i've down the right think this is the italy-german spread which isn't as high prefrench election. we're at 1.85. 2.13 was the highest since 2014. we were looking at the spread before the french election. is this the charge that -- chart that wore looking out forward next? >> i think it is. investors are going to be focused on it now and 2018. there are two points that are significant. until the first round of the french elections when it was you pen on the right,
the french went as high as 75 points. and the italian moved in sympathy. the change that has happened according to the chart is italy is no longer correlated with france. france is in good shape. and now the italian bond spread is where the focus is on. as you go on, the investors do not have a risk in germany, netherlands, and italy is going to be the sole focus for bond ware and that's going to be the big impact. mark: what's it like on the zounled what your clients telling you? >> italy is clearly concerned about some of the moves what, it would be do to the italian chism they do not know who will form the next government. the populist five-star movement is lead negative polls compared to renzi's democratic action
party. but that being said, there is still time to change. and i would like to see, mark, election khalidded -- completed, angela merkel there provide a way of keeping taly in the europe fold. if germany continues to act as it has done over the last couple of years. mark: what do you think of europe has a place to invest? i just showed you that euro stoxx 50 chart which tells strategists maybe think we've seen the top for european stoxx right now. we've seen them outperforming the u.s. peers. has it gone as far as it can? the french political risk is behind us. how much further upside might
european stocks have on european assets? >> and it has probably topped out for a while. if you look at the next year, i would expect you will find little change until this italian elections are over. longer terms, you're looking to see whether they are going to make structural changes in the case of france. does the new prime minister who was named earlier today by president macron, is he able to actually make the structure of reforms to bring down the youth and unemployment rate to 24%? in italy the youth unemployment rate is 34%. and if they don't succeed in doing that, that is going to have an impact on the nfments market. on the italian side, the other big issue are the non-performing loans. we the italian financing minister saying it is exaggerated but the numbers i hear suggests it has risen 6% in
2008 to 18% of all bank loans in 2016, maybe non-performing. and that is a huge number. what it says is that italian banks have to recapitalize the valuation of the loans have to be at more realistic levels because i'm not going to buy italian bank equity if you quote your debt holding at 100% on the euro. so thoth those changes would have to come forward. the question is will they actually -- i'm very optimistic on the italian side that even if you have a leader from a five-star movement in rome next february or march, they don't have much of an option but to go through with the reforms. you have to reach it. hi, vonnie. vonnie: hi. how are you? you mentioned the unemployment rates in france and germany. let's move to the states now. here, it's 4.4% which should have us jumping up and down but what exactly does it mean and
why are we not seeing wage growth here improve? >> vonnie, that's a great question. you quoted the 4.4% figure. that is what the u-3 unemployment rate. i don't like that measure at all. i think it's inaccurate. it includes people who may have only one hour of work, one hour of work a week as being employed. it also includes people who have been -- who have left their workforce because they couldn't find a job. they are treated as having left the workforce rather than considered unemployed. i like the broader u-6 measure which corrects -- and that stands at 8.5%, vonnie, which is higher than it was in november, 2007, just before the great recession began. vonnie: does that mean the feds shouldn't move in june or if it does move in june, that should be it for the year? >> i think they may move june
because only because they've been talking about moving in june. this is similar to the hike in december of 201. they kept saying they will raise it three times in 2017, ended up doing it once. they may have to do it in june because they said so. not because the conditions rider it. i think that is very little here to say that the economy's picking up strength. you talked earlier in the program, vonnie, about the two to-10 year spread on the u.s. treasury going to 104 earlier today. it was as high as 130 with all the enthusiasm about the trump election in december. and we have come back where we were. we had the dollar surge in november and december with optimism. that has essentially been canceled since. so we have a situation of essential neutrality the market is waiting to see what comes next. mark: great to see you. >> thank you. good to be with you.
mark: thank you. vonnie? vonnie: mark, let's check in on the news. courtney has more. courtney: in seattle, the trump administration attorneys will salvage the president's ban on travel from six mostly muslim nations. a three-judge appeals court panel will consider the case. the lower court judge said the travel ban appear be zrimtory. -- discriminatory. saudi arabia and russia say they want to extend oil extension cuts through the first quarter of next year. saying it is necessary to reduce inventory to five-year average and shore up prices. to the saudi arabia prime minister spoke earlier today in beijing. >> most of us expressed our satisfaction where that has been largely achieved. it has been a marked of reduction in inventories but we are not where we want to be in terms of reaching the five year
average. courtney: opec and the united nations agree to meet next week in vienna. oil prices are higher. in china, the president has pledged $78 billion in financing for what he calls the project of the century. the money would be used to connect china through infrastructure and investment. among those attending the conference in beijing were president putin and the turkey president. a day after he was inaugurated,, french president emmanuel macron has named his prime minister. he is a member of the republican party. macron was the minister in the last socialist government but by picking phillip, macron is looking to widen his appeal before next month's parliamentary elections. this is bloomberg. mark?
vonnie: live from london and new york, i'm vonnie quinn. mark: and i'm mark bartlett. this is "bloomberg markets" ploom. i want to focus on the world's biggest travel leashture and touring company dealing with uncertainties in the last year. earlier, i spoke with the executive and asked him how brexit is impacting tourism. >> sometimes it's amazingly fast
. and if something is off media, you see that there's a conflict. particularly, turkey is coming off a little bit. we have more russian customers coming big because russia topes urkey again. mark: i think a third of your sales comes from here and the u.k. you did say there's a little bit of weakness in the u.k. why is that and will it persist? >> when you look at half of the numbers, you cannot see the weakness yet because our customer numbers in the u.k. has been up 8% in h-1. but it's true. when you look at forward, you will see the weak pound and the weak pound has a little bit of influence and so far, the prices go up. so for summer trading, we see a
smart up turn in customers but prices have come up a little bit. and therefore, i think, you know, it is -- it can be that the u.k. business might slow down a little bit over time. mark: and of course, the weak pound is due to the brexit votes which took place last june. obviously the negotiations have now begun. we've got an election taking place here in under four weeks. does that create any uncertainty when it comes to customers' ravel plans? >> we don't see that yet but it might be. i just recalled before the brexit, the euro-to-pound ratio that, it is fter .85. so the increase in prices of
just about 15%. some of it will be competed and some will not. so i think it is clear that we should be assuming a little bit resistance of paying higher prices. therefore, we do the following. we actually reduce a little bit to fix capacity so the committed capacity and we also will be looking for new destinations that is more valued destinations . bull gare ya, for example, is very interesting and a very stronghold destination for the u.k. people. mark: germany is your big market by customers but when you look at the potts relative of the customer base, they don't quite mash up. when you dig dean, you see there's a reluctance among germans to book online, only 17% book online. why such reticence? how do you get germans to start
booking their holidays online? >> this is something which is a regular behavior. you look at other consumer industries, it's very similar. so you the nordic countries, the highest online penetration, the u.k. is somewhere in the middle. for us, it's 90% online. and it's 60% in the u.k. and you always have some lower levels in germany. and i think you cannot change that too much because we as a consumer company need to be very -- anyway, we are increasing year over year and you can see that also germany is increasing. it's just lagging a little bit behind. the other trend is actually that in germany, we control a relative small part of our travel agencies. many travel agencies are
independent. and that is very different from the u.k. and a part of the law of profitability is inefficiency in the system. that is something we want to change. but that is also something we cannot change very short term because there are these many independent travel agencies and they will not disappear. so it's one of the plans. and that's the reason why i said the turnaround in germany will ake about three to five years. mark: coming up, battle of the charts. pitting china retail sales against bloomberg's terminal function. this is bloomberg. ♪
running the functions featured at the bottom of your screen. here in new york, it's taylor rigs. >> i am taking a look at economic data that we saw released from china overnight. so coming in this morning, you saw industrial output, fixeds a sexets retail sales coming a little bit softer than expected. so we spoke with the economist at b.i. he said particularly that same industrial production which was down not disastrous, except for the fact that it was coupled with some weak equity markets in china which makes him more concerned. so you had weak equity markets and then a flatter yield curve on the short end. all of this turmoil leads him to think that the first quarter of 2017 might have peaked. and the data could get softer as the year continues. so maybe a good sign for some of this data coming out as the year continues. vonnie: taylor riggs, thank you. and that can be seen at 4956.
all right, mark. beat that. mark: there's not going to be any gimmicks. we're done with that. we're getting serious. we're talking functions. forget a chart, vonnie. this is the function of the day. cpfc. it's all about oil today to comment over the weekend from saudi and russia. they're in favor of extending this production cut through the first quarter this year. what this does this it measures analyst sentiments. it tells us how optimistic and bullish forecasters are. we talk them to. they tell us the sentiment. 71% of the analysts we surveyed are bullish on the price of oil right now. that's up 14% from a year ago. 29% who's, we were on bearish? 9.5% of analysts, a drop of 17 points from just a week ago and knew dr. we've got 19 up by two.
and for those who are looking at this wonderful color here, reds, of course is bearish. knew trails blue. bullish is green. forget gimmicks, vonnie. simple functions. we love them. vonnie: i do love it, mark. i adore it. but it's not a reflection on you. it's a fantastic function and a fantastic chart. but i re-examined taylor chart while you were preparing that chart and i'm going to give to it taylor riggs this week. taylor riggs wins battle of the charts. that's mainly because china is such an important story, mark, as you know. mark: president trump is going to speaking in the national peace officers memorial services at the capitol. ♪
♪ vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, here are the top stories on the bloomberg and around the world that we're following. in market, the oil rally is lifting stocks and energy shares leading the gains on s&p 500. jumping more than 3% after saudi arabia and russia said they favor a longer output deal. the news giving a boost to the currency with major oil exporters. in company use. shares of a.i.g. are rising after the new crowe said he's not there to break the insurer meanwhile, carl icahn who was pushed for a split is reacting to the new crowe via twitter this morning. we'll have the latest. and governments and companies around the world are beginning to gain the upper hand against the unrivaled global cyberattack. more than 200,000