Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Markets The Trump Economy  Bloomberg  May 24, 2017 1:00pm-2:01pm EDT

1:00 pm
await of the analysis of the american health care act that could force republicans to vote again on the bill which passed by a slim margin earlier this month. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell set the status quo with obamacare is unacceptable. president trump arrives in brussels. he is there for a nato summit. terrorism and russia expected to be high on the agenda. mark is largely in a holding pattern this afternoon as investors await the minutes from the fomc's latest meeting and we expect a at 2:00 wall street time. ♪ david: let's start with health care as we await scoring from
1:01 pm
the congressional budget office later today. apple reporter joins us -- our reporter, joins us. what are you looking for in the numbers? proposed and lawmakers will play close attention and what will you be looking for? major things we will be looking for is the budget target they are trying to meet, $2 billion in savings for this health care bill to comply with the rules in the senate. if they do not meet that target, it is possible this bill would have to go back to the house and be reworked and tweeted a devoted again and we saw much trouble they had getting get through the first time -- and voted on again. now with the cbo score, that could get blown up and they would not necessarily have to start from scratch a make changes and try to wrangle the votes.
1:02 pm
the most important number we are looking at. we will look at at how many people of the is health care bill will cover. how many people could lose their insurance is a number big number. david: let's return to you. you will look at the practical implications. what will we see from that today? are looking that is the broader coverage, how many people will lose insurance. the last time the cbo looked at it, 24 million people losing issuers in a decade. most experts do not believe it will move a lot. what are the premiums going to do, what are the deductibles going to do, what kind of a will you be up to buy under this plan? david: let me tease it out a little bit. what our experts saying and the way coverage can change? zachary tracer: one big question is what happens to premier? -- premiums?
1:03 pm
say the premiums would go up 10%-20% of the next few years. the question will be have any of them done in thing to bring down premiums? deductibles are set to go up. premiumse saying my are going up, deductibles are going up. is this ensures i want? david: how lawmakers are responding. there was the incredible piece by our colleague pointed out to a lot of lawmakers this could happen, they make how to vote on the bill once again. what are they saying about the political position as they are in and how the white house is watching? republicansnnipa: have been criticizing the cbl saying they have a poor track record in trying to determine how a perspective p's of legislation will impact people 5, 10 years down the road. some are unhappy about the prospect of a method to vote
1:04 pm
again on something that was so difficult and it never seemed so much political backlash over. lawmakers and the white house are not too happy about the state they find themselves in and some are waiting to see what the number says and as i will take it from there and how to manage it. many are hopeful it will meet the target they are looking for so they do not have to vote for it again and a very crucial time in washington where you have a lot of lawmakers trying to see what is going to happen a. david: that's not the first time this piece of legislation has been scored what has changed between then and now? what was added on to the bill? big changes.were 2 one was additional money, a few extra billion dollars for sick people. and the macarthur it amendment. waivers to take some the rules out of the insurance markets and an effort
1:05 pm
to bring down premiums. it is unclear what it would do and how cbo will evaluate. it will be a big challenge. -- data: how our health companies looking at what is going on? aetna has pulled out. zachary tracer: health insurers are focused on if 24 million people are losing their insurers in a decade, let's paying customers for me. if medicaid is getting cut, less reimbursement for the health insurers. they will be looking at what does it mean for my business? house iso in the white responsible for keeping tabs on all of this? we hear for mick mulvaney talking about the budget. when it comes to health care, who is speaking on the issue now? toluse olorunnipa: we did here for mick mulvaney and we have known the health and human services director tom price is one of the main points of
1:06 pm
contact on it. as the president is overseas, his twitter account yesterday, he pointed out obamacare has studiesd and one of the that is being promoted by republicans in washington today comes from health and human services department. last three years and the individual workers, premiums have gone up 105% and were hearing that from several republicans of a shift in the tone is saying obamacare a struggle and price of gone up and what are the reasons that need to do this repeal and replace effort. david: last question about how the dovetails with the budget we got from the white house. is this piece of legislation getting through congress? is the white house wrangling with how likely it is going to be? toluse olorunnipa: it does not like they are reckoning with us and will make drastic changes. the budget includes a lot of information in the house bill. the senate said they will take
1:07 pm
their time and start from scratch for there will be the major changes the white house did not acknowledge in their budget. behind closed doors, they know it is a long journey ahead and there will be several changes before it gets to the president's desk at some point, potentially this year. if not, it could bleed over into next year. david: that is toluse olorunnipa who covers the white house and zachary tracer covers health care. a check with the markets. fitch,abercrombie & excuse me. according to "the wall street journal" are potentially getting a bid which could be teaming up with american eagle outfitters, according to people familiar cited by the wall street journal. the shares of abercrombie spiked and took another leg up. american eagle similarly is
1:08 pm
spiking by 3%. "the journal" says express is in the bidding as well as more with other private equity firms. and the bidding for that company seems like it is pretty wide open and we will track it and see if that get confirmation and if there any further developments. the shares are clearly reacting. american eagle getting another leg up. averages and the movement we are seeing, no big spike on that front. the s&p 500 is having the tightest trading range not only of the year but going back to 1996 and only swung three points in today's session. doubt and nasdaq not seeing much of movement even if movement is slightly positive which would mean a fifth straight day of game g -- gains. to the downside, general electric, the ceo at a conference said the company let
1:09 pm
the stretch to me is gall of earning two dollars a share, a companym -- said the will have to stretch to earn two dollars a share, a long-term goal. we are watching social media companies. mosttock attributing the to the s&p 500 is facebook, up 0.8% per not quite at its record. and a snap, investors shrugging at carson block, it could be a short position, concerns about corporate governance and affix any questions about the business model and strategy. the trays are higher. -- trades are higher. analysts calling for shake shack after piper jeffrey initiated shares with an overweight rating saying she has a deep understanding of the company's culture and the
1:10 pm
positive. mattel is up. ower, afters l deutsche bank cut it from buy. upid: abercrombie is trading 9.3%. the u.k. investigating a network of alleged manchester attackers. we will have that and president trump's summit as well. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:11 pm
1:12 pm
david: this is bloomberg markets: the trump economy. let's check on first word news and mark crumpton has a much more.
1:13 pm
mark: police have arrested a fifth a suspect in connection with this week's deadly terror attack in manchester. the suspect was reportedly arrested near the city and the ap said authorities are examining something the suspect was carrying. a day after britain race is terror level, the army is providing additional security at parliament and down it. and security will be stepped up at the soft targets like airports. prime minister theresa may ordered the military to guard landmarks and sporting events. house republicans are bracing for a new financial estimate under obamacare bill. if the budget office said the bill passes require bill targets, republicans could be forced into an a balancing do over on the measure is passed last month. are likely to meet rules that would allow a simple majority.
1:14 pm
asn is ready to continue part of the opec agreement at the same production agreed upon before according to the oil minister. he spoke to reporters outside his hotel in vienna ahead of the meeting. >> it is very important for all opec to supply, to fully comply, very important. and we have very good compliance. with anyo comply period of time we need to. iran ise minister said content with a six or nine of the opec pack. first lady melania trump visited the vatican's children's hospital and made of the stop after she and the president met with pope francis. she sat down with 15 children.
1:15 pm
the first lady toward the cardiac intense -- toured the cardiac intensive unit before ending the trip by praying and the chapel. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries, i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. david: thank you. aitish security forces raided building as they investigate of what they say a network of people behind a bombing behind grande concert. fraher. is john what does it say about how they are investigating? the investigation is taking on an international element. of policebeen lots
1:16 pm
activity in manchester and also in tripoli, libya, where the family of the bomber came from. we have a series of arrests. the father of the suspected bomber was arrested just minutes after bloomberg interviewed him, along with his brother of the bomber who admits to being in the u.k. attribute time when the attack was planned. and wasck in tripoli also arrested. we are seeing clear signs of the investigation going international as far as authorities are digging deeper into likely a network of people supporting this terrorist attack. david: crumpton mentioned the risk level has been raised. what does it mean in practical terms? veryfraher: it is dramatic. we are seeing soldiers patrol that most people have never really sing. visitors to brussels and paris, it would be a common sight.
1:17 pm
-- that most people have never really sing. -- that most people have never really seen, how heightened it is area clearly, when we saw the news last night that the terror level, a clear signal that british authorities saw it as more than, the prime minister said preeminent threat. there are -- tensions are running high. the government is concerned. david: the growing international aspect, it brings up the issue of surveillance intelligence sharing. how does that stand to change as the brexit process unfolds and a complete brexit? way thel remain by the u.k. gets and gives intelligence information to analyze? john fraher: this gives an added part if britain does
1:18 pm
not negotiate a new intelligence relationship with a u.k., it could fall out of the time work that has been set up on the last 2 decades. todaysting that happened where the british home secretary, amber rudd three criticizing -- criticizing u.s. intelligence sources, i guess you would call them, what we saw was reports in the u.s. about the nature of the terrorist attack and a number of people killed. what seemed to happen is you can intelligence services and linkedtion it it will be to the u.s. media. clear anger on the side of amber and she talked about it. this is on the back of the whole trump giving russian prime minister too much information supplied from israel. david: what is to come the nato
1:19 pm
summit? u.s. advocating for the anti-islamic coalition. what else is on the agenda? john fraher: the manchester bombing will hang over the meeting. russia will be the elephant and of the room. russia is not on the agenda. that is going to be quite interesting to watch to see if it does us on the sideline. the tone of how president trump approaches it estimated big deal out of calling nato out on the campaign trail and question marks about circulators. does not to have the measure of president trump and the nato summit and the summit later in the week will give macron and angela merkel to look him in the eyes and see if that figure out what his priorities are. markss a lot of question
1:20 pm
about what kind of policy he wants for the united states. david: thank you. john fraher joining us from london. we will talk to jpmorgan chase michael feroli. ♪
1:21 pm
1:22 pm
dan: this is bloomberg markets: the trump economy. all ryan said he hopes of the tax plan will clear congress and go to president trump's desk by the end of the year. our guest says it faces political headwinds. michael feroli joins us now. what has been accomplished at this point? a one-page outline of principles and this wine-brady plan with been looking that and some
1:23 pm
hearings. what have we heard from the house ways and means committee? michael feroli: we have not got a lot. a lot of plan and i think speak ryan's is the most well articulated. a is fully laid out unlike veteran plan which is one page. the problem with the ryan plan is even though it is well articulated, it is revenue neutral. relies heavily on the border adjustment tax and the denial of deductibility. items are facing pretty stiff headwinds especially in the city, dutch senate, it does not seem there any republican senators behind it. it seems this is pretty close to being dead in the water. , illumination a deductibility and border adjustment and if also part. keys.dependent on those 2
1:24 pm
david: and the white house statement, it was not addressed. is there still a possibility the white house could embrace it? michael feroli: if anything, they are moving further from embracing the -- it feels like there is no common ground, if you eliminated the bat and the white house seems to be backing away. david: the specter of a plan the, dave camp floated a plan and that was always true that over. chewed over. michael feroli: people are looking get it but we do not think it will go far especially if we prioritize corporate taxes which is what the republican leadership wants to do. there are aspects of the camp plan that goes in the opposite
1:25 pm
direction of the ryan plan. we think if it goes to the joint committee, intimate fare worse than the ryan -- it may fare worse than the ryan plan. even though it is a fully fleshed out plan, it will probably be less popular than the orion plant which is not that popular to begin with. unpopular does the 2% growth become? you are not seeing 3% growth? about halfoli: no, of that. i do not think the ryan plan has 3%, the president's budget has. it has received blowback. i think in terms of corporate or otherm, ryan, camp proposals are not all that contingent on 3% but the president's plan is.
1:26 pm
david: when you get the minutes from the fed, what are you looking at, what page are you going to flip to? michael feroli: the most interest for balance sheet and we heard some of it from the meetings -- minutes in march and we expect more progress. the information on the economy and how they are using the economy is a little less interesting because right now what is most interesting is what is going on in inflation. the most recent inflation news after the last meeting, the news on the economy may be -- great tochael feroli see you. i will talk to congressman hakeem jeffries. he will join me next. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:27 pm
1:28 pm
1:29 pm
♪ this is bloomberg markets, the trump economy and let's start with headlines on first word news. mark: thank you, british home
1:30 pm
secretary andrew rudd has criticized u.s. officials for leaking details about the manchester terror attack. happens it better not again. she was unhappy that some details including the attackers name were reported by u.s. media before british authorities were ready to release the information. meantime, a fifth suspect has been arrested. written's political leaders will resume campaigning on friday in an effort to return to normal business following the manchester bombing. prime minister theresa may's fullrvatives will resume national campaigning friday. the opposition labor party says pursue a similar timetable. the election is june 8. president trump met with prime minister today. he will meet with officials from nato and the european union
1:31 pm
which are both headquartered in brussels. several thousand anti-trump demonstrators gathered in the city to protest the president's environmental and immigration policies. white house budget chief nick mull they that the president's social programs are designed to increase economic growth 3% and put taxpayers first. the plan combines $4.1 trillion 2018 fiscalming year with a promise to bring the budget back into balance in 10 years. it relies on aggressive spending cuts and a surgeon economic growth. global news, 24 hours a day powered by over 220 journalists . 120 countries i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. david: thanks very my. the on the budget proposal, release marks the start of what could be a month-long appropriations process.
1:32 pm
omb director mick mulvaney testified about the plan before the house budget committee. em jeffries is on that committee and joins us right out of that hearing. what did you hear from the budget director today? today.e to you about it what did you hear from the director? >> the director made clear, as far as i'm concerned, that the trump budget does not put workers first. it puts the wealthy and well off first. it balances itself on the back of working families, middle-class folks, senior citizens, the poor, the sick, the afflicted as well as rural america to ultimately provide the wealthiest among sus -- among as with the heaviest tax cut. it's based on the premise that a significant tax cut will generate huge economic growth but there is no evidence that i can find or that reasonable economists have been able to find to support this trickle-down economic theory.
1:33 pm
david: where do we go from here? that'se seen the budget been proposed. what do you in your fellow democratic lawmakers do now? week have a recess next where we will come indicate directly with the american people about the consequences of his budget. it would cut head start, cut meals on wheels, cut a wide variety of programs such as medicaid, assistance to nursing throughoutpeople all america, not just urban america cup communities like i represent in brooklyn, but in suburban and rural america rely upon would be devastated by this budget. we will talk to record to the mark in people over the next week and reconvene washington, to gos a budget committee over the exact details of the budget and vote on it. to kille will be able that budget in committee. republicans will try to advance it to the floor of the house of representatives. that: are you optimistic
1:34 pm
the budget process will play out historically it has. it has not played out that way recently. >> the republicans have run on the concept of a return to so-called regular order where we would have a hearing, a markup of the budget, go to the floor come voted on the house and over to the senate and then sent to the president. it's not clear to me that many of my colleague some republican side of the aisle want to vote on a budget that would be so devastating to their constituents. it's good to raid the headlines. i think this is a budget that is fiscally responsible and would reduce or illuminate the deficit over the next 10 years. but the more that americans learn about the details, the fine print in what is being proposed, the more they are likely to reject this trump budget. david: do you agree with the director of the omb when he says when you look at the programs the government funds, not enough emphasis is put on getting people out of those programs.
1:35 pm
is there a push for those programs do exist and not much appetite for reform? >> we want to be able to supply americans with a hand up not a handout. some of these programs that -- the opinion that these programs are a charity, is just a smokescreen by many of my colleagues on the other side of the aisle and the omb director to justify the devastating cuts eating made. yes, we want to criticism and where we can create more jobs and economic growth for hard-working americans out there. that occurred over the last eight years of the obama administration, 12 million private sector jobs were created without any cooperation on the other side. democrats are willing to work together on this issue but we have to have republicans who are willing to help us find coming ground. david: the white house says
1:36 pm
democrats are complacent and are willing to live with 1.29% growth. they don't think the u.s. can grow 3%. howdy respond to that criticism? is there a complacency when it comes to economic growth? >> america's a great country and we have experience considerable economic growth under a democratic presidency. barack obama inherited a trey burke of an economy that was handed -- a train wreck of an economy that was handed to him by george w. bush. $4 trillion lost, 12 million plus jobs gained under barack obama. we saw 4.0 rates of economic growth under the clinton administration, 20 million plus jobs created. have seen not just rhetoric coming from the democratic side of the aisle but actual results. we believe in american exceptionalism come a we believe
1:37 pm
we can find common ground to further stimulate the economy, but we have to find a partner on the other side of the aisle. david: i looked at how people voted in your district. there were not a lot of democratic voters that voted for president trump. they were disenfranchised and i felt they weren't getting what they needed from the government. how does the democratic party reach out to the voters who may have been traditionally democratic voters and thought they would try something different and get them back to the democratic party? >> we have policies designed to help out hard-working americans throughout the country in the rust belt states and rural america. we have to do a better job of communicating those policies to the american voter and also indicate to them that we do feel their pain, we do understand that there is a reasonable amount of economic anxiety that exists because of the wage stagnation, underemployment, the high cost of a college education, the loss of pension and these are issues that we as
1:38 pm
democrats are prepared to work is tout the startingoint indicate to the voter in a clear, authentic fashion that we understand what they are going through and will work hard to address it. david: congressman from the eighth district in new york, hakeem jeffries. we continue our deep dive into the four point $1 trillion -- into the $4.1 trillion budget proposal. we will get more perspective next. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:39 pm
1:40 pm
1:41 pm
david: this is bloomberg markets, the trump economy. stocks are quiet but let's check on bonds this afternoon. julie: it seems appropriate ahead of the release of the fed minutes and about 90 minutes from now. we are not seeing much movement in the treasury market today but something of note that happen. there was an auction of five-year notes about 40 minutes billion in the bid to cover was a high as we have seen this year. the yield on the auction was the lowest since november, in other words there were stronger demand and this particular auction and i have been more of a move -- and there has been more of a moving treasuries with the yield moving down in the wake of that auction. also, as we await the fed minutes and the next fed meeting, it's worth looking at break evens. this is the market proxy for inflation expectations. the line is the election and then we had a big reflation trade after the election.
1:42 pm
we have been seeing those break evens come back down with inflation expectations coming down. this is also reflected in the u.s. dollar. the dollar index recently has really been in a downtrend. here it is going back to may 9. since then, it is only had two trading days where it was higher so it has lost a combined 2% since that time. at andng else to look think about as we await the fed minutes is the balance sheet of the fed. and other central banks because not only is there the lingering question of when we will see the fed continue to raise rates but it's also how and when and to what degree is it going to perhaps work down its balance sheet. this is a look at the balance sheet of the federal reserve in white and the bank of japan is in purple and you have the ecb in aqua. one reason you see the others
1:43 pm
attach up is because of the weakness of the u.s. dollar. for commong to look potential on the balance sheet. david: thank you very much. let's get back to the top stories which is the 2000 page budget proposal of president trump. it makes cuts to medicaid and student loans. cguineas.ng in maya m you have been calling for the government to look at a balanced budget so this has to be in part a dream decision. but dream is a strong word it is really encouraging to have an administration talking about the importance of tackling our debt and getting to a specific goal. they put balancing the budget as their goal for 10 years. i would caveat that with two things -- i don't think we need to try to balance the budget in 10 years. that may be an aggressive goal
1:44 pm
because our fiscal situation is so bad, rather than having an aggressive goal, i would like to have a realistic one, something were the policies put forth will happen and we will make progress. we have had plenty of budget they claim to do one thing and then we pass policies that move in the opposite direction. the second point is that there is too many fuzzy number throughout this budget where would not actually get to balance. there are a lot of missing pieces. the big shocker is that tax reform which is the centerpiece of the agenda is not included in this budget. they assume that revenues would be slightly higher under this budget. after tax reform where as the policies they are talking about are oriented toward a tax cut. and the growth assumptions they have in this budget are incredibly aggressive. i know that 3% growth does not sound like an aggressive number. you have to dig deeper. you have to understand that our labor market growth is very
1:45 pm
constrained because of the aging of the population. when you break down the numbers and look at them closely, the 3% is wishful thinking. the ministration is saying it's optimistic or you need to be optimistic and it's patriotic but it's not. it is math and we need to be credible and realistic and shoot for policies that will grow the economy as much as possible but we have to have realistic expectations about what it means to have an aging population. david: on the growth issue, i was struck the way mick mulvaney anomics whichtrump is aspiring to get to 3%. what do you make of the degree to which getting to 3% growth underpins these economic projections? isi think the growth agenda the most important economic agenda we could be pursuing. i really embrace and applaud that goal. talking about different
1:46 pm
parties and how they prioritize. i think the emphasis on growth is critical. it needs to be balanced with their values and other programs that are not always growth. it's not the only criteria but it matters so much more than ever because of the challenges we face with the aging population. there is a difference between aspiration and realism. you need to lay out specific policies that will grow the economy and the trump administration i think has the right ones were talks about tax reform in a regulatory reform, shifting some of our spending. they talk about more investments in infrastructure and we have to shift are spending away from consumption into investment policies. immigration would also grow the economy but a big one is also bringing our debt down. you want to put together a full program plan but each of those will grow the economy by decimal points, not necessarily getting an entire percentage point of growth above where we are today. again, realistic, don't
1:47 pm
overpromise and under deliver. that's not the way to push of budget is not the way to run an economy. we want to craft a program plan that is realistic so do not end up with trillions of dollars more in debt which could happen otherwise. it strikes me that this is perhaps more of a mick mulvaney budget that a white house or republican budget. we have not seen that in a while. when president obama released a budget, most democrats would rally behind that but we are not seeing that in this way. >> i should not speak for the omb director but i will say that this is entirely like a mick mulvaney budget and i really admire him because he has been very straightforward and honest about the need to really tackle our largest entitlements, social security and medicare. one of the lasting things in this budget is they don't do anything about those two things. they're not willing to raise revenues overall and as a result, so much of the savings in his budget comes from a small
1:48 pm
sliver, investments, progress for children, low income programs. that may be something they omb director supports and i think there are savings to be found they are but i do want to speak thatim but my guess is there are many in the administration that believes we need to do fundamental entitlement reform and we do. that is the truth. it's a contentious issue. the longer we delay addressing those programs, it puts more strains on other parts of the budget. also, the more he jeopardizes people who depend on those programs. we are not doing them any favors by protecting the program which means delaying and strengthening finances wit which are on an unsustainable path. when we get the cbo score of the health-care bill, what we be looking for question mark >> we have been trying to figure out what to expect from the savings of that bill.
1:49 pm
we really cannot tell because there are so money variables about how the congressional budget office will estimate what the states will do under some of the changes in the new bill. let me take a step back and say that i was surprised and disappointed there was even a vote on the bill before the score had come out. sense.s no a huge piece of this is understanding the effect and the bottom line. ,f you take two steps back couple of years ago, republicans are talking about repeal of obamacare leading to savings of $2 trillion. budget, they're asking to save $2 billion. that's a big difference in savings. is, if they don't get the $2 billion in savings, they will have to restructure this bill. in order to move forward on reconciliation which is the tool that allows them to pass this more easily in the senate, they need to at least get 2 billion dollars of savings so it's an important score and terms of the
1:50 pm
next steps politically. i think the discussion has been lacking in the real improvements we want to make and health care and what are the ways we want to control health care costs which are still growing faster than the economy and putting a lot of pressure on families and the budget. david: great to speak with you as always. coming up on bloomberg markets, i will speak with mary jo white, the former chair of the securities and exchange commission. we will get her take on the donald trump plan for financial regulation at 3:00 p.m. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:51 pm
1:52 pm
david: this is bloomberg markets the trump economy. are minuteses -- we away from the minutes of the fmo see meeting. hike.ect a june rate we will bring in the chief u.s. economist from bloomberg
1:53 pm
intelligence. let's start with the tip on how to digest minutes from the fed. when you get them, what will you be looking for? >> i don't want to give away trade secrets but we are talking about 15 or 20 pages of minutes. normally, you jumped midway through to see what the actual meeting participants, the voting members are saying. however, this time i think it will be instructive to go right for anyone and look staff briefings on potential balance sheet unwinding scenarios. normally, a lot of people leap through the first few pages rapidly and i think there is the risk of missing something. david: let me pull up a chart. that is a look at the fed balance sheet. we have been seeing this debate haveoxy as the fed members been speaking about the balance
1:54 pm
sheet. are we seeing any consensus on what the fed will do? consensus ise starting to come together in terms of both timing and the approach to the unwind. there is an agreement there will be no outright sales. i think there are some consensusbuilding but you cannot just pull the plug and let her rip because that would be very volatile as you have a very uneven unwind of the balance sheet under that scenario. they need to control it and we will see possibly in today's minutes, there was not a lot of heavy lifting do -- to do at the may meeting. they presumably had more time to look into these matters. how difficult is it going to be for the fed to raise rates and take action on the balance sheet? >> it is a significant challenge to be sure. a point where they have come together on agreement for
1:55 pm
the most part, i think they want the balance sheet unwind to operate quietly, passively, and predictably in the background while they can use interest rate toiy as their way throttle up or back on economic growth. he should be able to do this if they do this carefully. this is a fed that was burned by the taper 10 from so they are being very cautious in communicating this well in advance and very clearly to market her disappearance. page one,starting on i want to know what the fed is thinking about the economy. let's talk about inflation specifically. we see two measures of inflation, core cpi and core cpd. >> when we see the minutes, they will not have seen the last data point on this chart at the time of the may meeting. this is a little bit more forward-looking. they could be somewhat dismissive of the soft readings
1:56 pm
on inflation. luckily, the rhetoric got more traction after seeing the second data point where we have been seeing that inflation is not moving markets higher. communications contracts are a major driver here. 4.5%nemployment rate is and we have an economy that supposedly excel are ready but we are not picking up a pickup in inflation pressures just yet. david: thank you so much. will speak with mary jo white, the former chair of the securities and exchange commission and talk about president trump's plan for regulatory reform at 3:00 p.m. eastern. you can catch all our interviews on the bloomberg. check that out. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:57 pm
1:58 pm
1:59 pm
scarlet: we begin with breaking news. a feel moments, the federal
2:00 pm
reserve will release the minutes from its may meeting, where they left rates unchanged and signaled they were not armed by the weakness and first-quarter gdp. the chances of a june rate increase are fairly high. odds indicated of a rate increase. >> thanks. we learned two things from the fomc minutes. one, at the may 2 odds indicatee increase. >> and may 3 meeting, this committee was on course, not committed, but on course for a june rate hike. two, there was wide agreement that they should not cease from one month to the next the reassessment of assets on the balance sheet when they begin to reduce that balance sheet. back to the timing of the next rate hike, here is the key quote from the minutes -- most participants judge that if economic information came in about in line with expectations,

42 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on