tv Bloomberg Markets The Trump Economy Bloomberg May 30, 2017 1:00pm-2:01pm EDT
president trump returns from a tense g7 meeting. asting germany on twitter, threatening relationships with a key nato ally. the president's 2018 budget, former senator judd gregg said that it's not a good idea to spend as if you won the lottery in the hopes that you actually do. he will join us live later in the hour. plus a rare interview with phil falcone. and he is back, putting his money to work. find out where. ♪ david: analysis now of the relationship between the u.s. and europe, i'm joined by our chief washington correspondent, .evin cirilli let me start with you, if i
could. the president got back on saturday. what is the white house saying about the success of the trip? kevin: they are calling it successful, but the criticism is coming from inside the beltway, particularly that the president didn't give a press conference. this was a very scripted president donald trump. the most scripted of anything i've ever covered in this campaign. but the firestorm of accusations over russia only continues. i can tell you that michael:, the personal attorney -- michael , the personal attorney for donald trump, part of a prominent law from here in washington, d.c., has declined to provide information to the u.s. senate intelligence committee and as a result of thateen they havele to issue subpoenas. the continuation of the investigations is clearly hanging over this administration in a week when congress is in recess amid reports that there
could be a shakeup. chief of staff, reince priebus, issuing a statement earlier today on the news that the president's deputy communications director has since resigned. what is your sense of the transatlantic relationship after the nato summit and g7 relationship? how tried has it then -- has it been? >> i think angela merkel, she didn't even try to hide her irritation and annoyance at a lot of what she saw at the summit last week. it's not just things like free trade that annoy her. she's very heavily invested, personally, in the success of the paris climate accord. it doesn't sound like she got anything from donald trump that reassured her there. she made comments on sunday that
europe needs to go it alone in the world of donald trump and brexit. david: john, let me ask you about climate. from thet hearing yet trump white house about pulling out of that accord. what could it mean for germany and other allies? would beple disappointed, but the most important thing, if that were to happen, is the country needs to lo at china. be another example, if it happened, of how the world in the trump era is playing into china's hands. remember the start of the year, the chinese president said that china would be in the vanguard of globalization. if china became the global country at the head of the climate accords, it would add to that increasing sense of soft power and what they are setting up in terms of the agenda.
when it comes to renewables, this plan -- plays into their hands. kevin, what is the white house considering at this point? kevin: we have a 2:00 briefing with sean spicer. and of course, they are eagerly awaiting the results of these investigations, to try to put this behind them. they are already setting up a separate war room, so to speak, strategy and the west wing to deal with the russia probe allegations. i spoke with a source yesterday who works frequently with the white house and -- white house on a host of international issues and the feel is that this was a successful first trip. my source pointed to a statement from bob corker, who had a glowing review of this trip. but privately my source also indicated that morale, particularly among original staffers in the white house is low. because now, of course, jared kushner, the president's son-in-law, pressure on him has
only escalated. -- members oft the president's family met with rnc leadership last week, according to "the washington post." havid: they are focused are m in gettingllies to spend. we have 2% on defense. do you get the sense that he walked away with any stronger commitments? that it had any stronger effect? getting more money from allies as a result of the speech that he gave there? no. john: i think what he did get was this political commitment to this idea of taking on a greater role in counterterrorism. certainly the tragic events of last week in manchester have focused some thinking there, but in terms of like what he wants to get out of europe, in terms of examples of more, there's very little evidence of that today. david: let me ask you lastly
about the polls in the u.k., we have seen some narrowing. what are some of the potential causes of that? 1 theresa may has not had a fantastic election campaign. this is the first time the british people have managed to get a close-up view of her. she's a prime minister who has sort of famously kept the press at a distance. there were miscalculations in terms of the party manifesto and an embarrassing u-turn and a sense that she is not quite strong and stable. that's her own electorate -- election slogan. that her leadership is not as strong and stable as she herself is trying to project now. there's no real sense yet from the labour party or the hard left policies that jeremy corbyn will win this election. the key thing that markets are looking at be lleof her morityg she will be, really, going into the all importantexit br
negotiations with the european union that will start shortly. david: kevin cirilli, john .raher, thank you both let's get a check on where the markets stand this afternoon. julie hyman is here with the latest. julie: i want to start off with headlines from the federal reserve. comments being made in perp their remarks ahead of a speech saying that soft inflation could cause reassessment of moving forward under monetary policy, if it doesn't he linger. remember we got that expenditure deflator today. the preferred measure of the fed of inflation. it came in still below, persistently below that 2% target they haven't talking about. she said that if the soft inflation data persists it could be concerning and lead her to reassess the path of policy. we are seeing a pickup of that in the wake of those comments
with treasury yields falling to the lows of those sessions, down three basis points at this stage. we have a tight trading range persisting in today's session. all three averages, very little changed. the s&p in the nasdaq closed at recordfriday highs. amazon continuing to push $1000 a share. one of the reasons is that the nasdaq has been outperforming. earlier today and went above 1000 and got as high as $1000.80, that was the high of the session and it has been bouncing around. our tech valuations too high? take a look at the bloomberg. this looks at enterprise value in particular of the world technology index in white. during the tech bubble there was a much wider gap. now you're actually seeing that
betty: thank you, david. i'm here with phil falcone. good to see you today. the reason you are sitting here roster me is that you just wrapped up a roundtable with the vietnamese prime minister. you are looking at vietnam as an opportunity. the single biggest, i believe, foreign investor in this resort. is that right? phil: that's correct. betty: what was the roundtable like today? phil: as part of our investment, we have enuilding up th real estate project for 10ly sem legacyenture, but from a perspective -- betty: harbinger? phil: correct. they are interested in seeing more of opening up the markets a bit more and they wanted an introduction to some prominent investors over here, including some different corporations.
so, we hosted this roundtable event this morning with the prime minister. betty: right, because he's headed to rep washington after this to meet with the president. what were the questions? phil: there were a number of questions around the telecommunications perspective, are they opening up the marketplace, are they planning on privatizing some of the state owned enterprises that exist today? and i think the answer is yes, correct? yes, they came across as very willing and able to accommodate the investor base. whenever there's an opportunity to make money, will be interested. what gets them over the hurdle from saying that this looks like an interesting opportunity to doing what you have done, putting money to work there.
i think it's important that people see, our project, we have been there since 2006, they are accommodative and cooperative with foreign investment. phil: what does -- betty: what does that mean, exactly? phil: it means working with the government. right now we are focused on getting a locals pilot. i think that that is key. that is important for the project to move forward in a successful manner and i think that people are really focused on that and i think that if we do get that people will see that, wow, there really is a level playing field and the markets are opening up. is your your -- betty: investment only in this five-star resort, or are there others? phil: only in the resort. betty: have you made money on it? that would be an intense men -- enticement. [laughter] phil: not yet, but it's a marathon, not a sprint. betty: why vietnam?
it really is a frontier market there. phil: from an investment perspective i try to be creative and generate alpha. that's how i've always thought about my investing abilities. where i'm looking at, it happened to be an opportunity that i thought was very unique, from a pilot project. getting a gaming license in vietnam, the population there is coming on 100 million people that -- right now. there's a definite interest in gaming. we kind of looked at it years ago as one of these frontier markets to really build, hopefully, another macau. phil: -- betty: it seems that way. i know you have partnered wi multiple companies through this resort. when you put your money in here, for what is the endgame for you?
what would you like to see as the benchmark for success? they are really allowing us to go out and continue building up the operation. right now we have one tower of 500 rooms, living on another tower, a world-class golf course. we really trying to make it a family oriented, integrated resort, potentially building out along the entire beachfront. which they have allocated to our property. i wouldn't say that there is an endgame. i would say that the step of local gaming could be a big step to bringing in partners, foreign partners, in continuing to build out the entire property. -- betty: everyone is looking for the next macau. vietnam, singapore, japan, wherever else. are you looking at other areas? >> no, we are very vietnam such
rick -- vietnam centric. i think we have a tremendous opportunity and it has taken a lot longer than i expected but we are very excited about the prospects there. betty: this is one of your legacy investments from harbinger. how do use your game? what is your life like right now? phil: the bulk of my time is on the public company. the permanent capital platform. i did this once be with a company called harbinger group, which was then renamed and that was a nice success. i look at this vehicle as an opportunity to continue on with what we did at hr g and really build out the platform and take of operating the company and we have done a nice job with
that over the last couple of years. betty: you have assets in so many different industries. is there any kind of rhyme or reason here in the portfolio phil: wehat you have? will be opportunistic. we will go where there are growth prospects, tacking on acquisitions, really building these various platforms. we do have a diverse portfolio right now and will continue to get more diverse, but it also gives the holding company a very good balance, where you don't have to just focus on building your steel company. you can focus in the telecommunications area. we've got an exciting platform in the life sciences that i think is really interesting, what we are doing there. : life insurance is also a
big part of your portfolio? phil: we bought 100% of a long-term care business in runoff. we bought the entire platform with some people coming on from a regulatory perspective to really tilde on that. we think that there's an opportunity there. we did that in acquiring fidelity and guaranteeing when i was at the harbinger group, it was an opportunity that we think is presenting itself in a pretty unique way in the marketplace, especially in the insurance area, where typically you are paying 1.5 times times -- 1.5 times book, we got this at a substantial discount. betty: and your stock is trading at a big discount? ig, unfortunaty. time will tell, but as we prove out this model and the success of the underlying subsidiaries,
it will catch up. it's just a matter of time. betty: was the biggest difference between managing permanent capital versus harbinger, the hedge fund? phil: dealing with redemptions in the investor community is always a bit different. i've always been of the mindset that when looking at the different investments i've had over the years, the most success i have had is buying things that have taken a long time that you can incubate, help to nurture and grow, twist and turn. that is tough to do in the hedge fund model. you can do it in the private equity model, but it's still a little bit different. gives us thee flexibility that we need and really gives us the opportunity to hopefully never have to sell any of these companies that we control. it i: you want to fashion
can miniature berkshire hathaway? that's the ultimate model. if we can get a certain percentage of that success that they have had, that's clearly what we would have liked to do or would like to do. betty: would you go back to managing, substantially, fund capital? say never say nev, but it'highly unlikely. is not really what i want to do in theong term. i have had somod success in the previous entity that we built and now i feel like this is -- we have got the model kind of tweaked the right way to allow us to be flexible yet give mecontrol, do what i think and my team do best. -- betty: does it make
you think you should have done it earlier? yes, considering the redemptions, you can't second-guess it, the hedge fund structure for me was working out very well. it was a good platform, i think, for this kind of second stage. betty: you think that the hedge fund industry is in a permanent decline? phil: i don't. i think it's tougher for the smaller guys, the business has become much more institutionalized. i think the fee structure may have to change a bit. but there's always going to be the need for high-quality investors, no weston about it. betty: what do you mean by that? you pay to or 24 a fund that matches what's happening in the s&p? betty: should any fund be charging two and 20?
there has to be some flexibility going forward in that fee structure. for it's very tough investors to look at it and say -- i'm going to paywo and 20, and yet you are barely beating e s&p. is that rth two and 20? think so, but you have to think that there are people there,re, funds out quality, talented people who deserve the two and the 20. speaking of the hedge fund world, we just got the news this morning about steve, and and in anticipation of the van being lifted, he's raising outside money, about $10 billion or so. 10 billion in this day and age, you just mentioned there is so much cash out there. is that too much? look, i don't know, you know steve's abilities and
capabilities, there's no question that he can manage that money, it is a substantial amount, but i think that his structure probably works for that type of capital, but i don't know, exactly all the details behind it. i asked this before, but would you in that position want to be managing that much money? phil: no, i'm very happy doing what i'm doing and ultimately i look at it as our market cap will get at or close to that. that's my ultimate goal. peoplei'm sure a lot of watching this want to know, personally, what have you learned? how do you feel? you are near five years. five years from the fcc than. an.b it's about to be lifted. what have you learned? il: it was a very difficult time, i wouldn't wish that on my
worst enemy, but putting it past forward is the best thing you can do. i wish i had done that sooner rather than trying to fight. it was more challenging and it was tough, no question about it. betty: would you have done anything differently? phil: i would have looked to move on sooner rather than later. -- betty: your good friend, lee cooperman, he settled with the fcc. when you saw that did you say -- lee, you did the right thing there? phil: there's no question. lee is a super guy, one of the most honorable people i've met on the street. i was happy to see him put this behind him. he and i talked a little while ago. it's very challenging but it's nice to see that he is kind of
crossing the t's and dotting the eyes and moving on. betty: moving on like you, phil. great to see you. phil: thank you very much. and anphil falcone exclusive interview. david, back to you. david: fantastic interview. coming up, political turmoil following donald trump. his communications director is out after three months on the job. more reports on the jared kushner involvement in russia. this is bloomberg. ♪
emma: the trump administration has not -- not a vanity laptop than two airlines coming from europe. both sides have agreed to intensify talks to find a better solution. politico reports that the decision was made this afternoon on a conference call including european home the affairs commissioner. ,ergey lavrov says that addressing reporters in moscow, the recent agreements of de-escalation in syria would be continuing. the russian diplomat denied any russian involvement with hacking in which the syrian elections were held in the west. italy is moving towards early elections. isir biggest party considering adopting a new system similar to germany, with a 5% vote threshold for smaller parties.
eliminating the need to wait for scheduled elections in 2018. the prime minister is seeking a come back from the referendum defeat that led to his release in december. of second ousting attempt south africa's president in six months. the executive committee rejected the proposal this weekend, the 54% want him to step down. opposition to zuma has grown anotherg his firing of minister. news, 24 hours per day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. david? dad: here's what's happening the rest of the day. in washington, 2:00 p.m., a press briefing with sean spicer. we will monitor that. plus tomorrow, the anon's prime minister visits donald trump at the white house. they are likely to announce trade and a transpacific
ownership that was jettisoned in february. we spoke exclusively to the ,ietnam prime minister in hanoi head of that meeting with president trump. unum fromorts of the the united states will increase significantly this year, as we sign a billion dollars worth of deals from american firms and import high-value products to create american jobs. leaving his role as the white house communications director, mike duff key. for that we want to bring in tim o'brien, executive editor of bloomberg gadfly. tell us about the role that mike was playing in the white house as communications director. what was he doing?
sahil: he was in charge of the messaging operation. he oversaw that, top to bottom. this has obviously been a housec time trump white in terms of messaging. president trump with a very adversarial, openly hostile at times relationship with the press and mike was overseeing thathole tng. it includes having to say things that get contradicted by the a few days after you wind up putting out a statement. most demoralizing thing that can happen to you. we don't know the specific reason that he left. ignore.ext is hard to
david: you have a commander-in-chief acting as his own communications director. how difficult is that? >> having been in the midst of this, he takes his own counsel at the end of the day on almost anything. communications, policy, legal affairs, he tends to default to people in his comfort zone. family members or people who have been with him for a long time and the net effect is that he makes strategically unwise decisions. it's debatable if his current attorney is the best one for him right now. it's debatable whether he's got the right communications staff, but at the end of the day there was talk over the weekend that he would start vetting his own tweets. and then he started going after the media and the russian probe again on twitter, which is probably ill-advised and mus
haveren the communications staff bonkers. david: we have new reports now of the role that jared kushner might have played in all of that. what is the latest there? how concerned is this white house about those reports? sahil: as far as we know, the white house is standing by jared president's son-in-law, an influential player in terms of how decisions are made. when it comes to organizing things like the president's foreign trip. this is expected to be a major storyline going forward. democrats, they are likely, i'm told by senior aides, to call for investigations into the latest revelations that have come out in the press. one senior aide told me later today that because he is such a great target, expect this to get going and going and that it means the ring is closing on the
president himself. we had reports today that the president's own personal lawyer was asked to provide evidence. we don't know where this is going, but it is crowding out everything else the white house wanted to do. it has installed the legislative agenda and it was we haven't heard the last of it. it's a remarkable development. the scalp of kushner would be a devastating thing for the white house. it involves the family, the white house, and the scene -- close advisor. heid: why is the role that is playing so important? in the midst of this, if there is scrutiny and speculation, wouldn't the whe house want to cut ties? tim; he knows a lot, he has a pivotal role, he knows foreign policy and is ago two on domestic affairs. -- a go to on domestic affairs.
and it becomes financial. there's an issue as to whether or not his contact with the russians in december involved trading bank financing of some sort for a troubled project in new york for an easing of sanctions on russia and its banks. that's a clear quid pro quo. if that's part of the investigation, it adds a hold them -- whole dimension. david: someone very much in the trump in a circle -- inner circle, jared kushner. you have mike dubke, who came into that place but was not in the inner circle. what lessons can we learn? tim: if you are not family, you can get punted at any moment. even if you are a long-standing member of the inner circle, it's possible to get hunted. there's really no safety net in trumplandia. his loyalty is only to himself and his family members and it phrase -- frays after that.
off the lows of the session, still down two basis points. remember, the federal reserve governor is speaking in new york and taking questions from the audience now. emphasizing once again, reiterating what the fed said or , they want the balance sheet wind down to be gradual. she also said earlier that if inflation remains persistently low that that would potentially be a reason for the fed to rethink its interest rate strategy. not seeing a huge reaction, but .here was, in, a reaction looking at the yield curve as well we are seeing a flattening of it. here is the two to tenure spread. spread.o 10 year , potentially, when you see the outlook going higher, but the flattening is having an effect on those who benefit from higher interest rates and those who do not get on the one hand
we have regional banks trading as that yield curve flattens. the index is down more than 1%. keycorp is one of the examples there. investment banks are underperforming and goldman sachs is the worst performing stock in the dow. unlike the other major averages, goldman and morgan stanley, ever or, lower today. on the flipside you have got utilities shares, which tend to benefit when you see rates go lower. up 4/10 of 1%, being held by jpmorgan, which is raising its recommendation on the utilities here, saying that basically it is reducing its cyclical exposure. utilities tend to be more defensive, traditionally. much, thank you very julie. president donald trump is calling for the senate to change
its legislative rules. earlier he tweeted that the u.s. senate should switch to 51 votes immediately and get health care and tax cuts approved, dems would do it no doubt." want to bring in judd gregg, cochair of the campaign to fix former republican senator. let me start with this question on legislative empathy. when you read what the president broke, listen to your colleagues on capitol hill, talking about changing the rules, can you understand where things are co from? is this enough of the case to get the rules changed? absolutely not. they already have the procedural capability of moving forward under reconciliation with 51 votes, both on health care and tax reform. in fact, it's much easier to do under tax or form than health care. all they have to do is reach an agreement amongst themselves and it could be a massively slimmed-down version, if they wish. it could be a major, robust tax
reform patch gige -- package. i'm not sure the president understands what he's talking about, to be very honest with you. the rules are there. they are available, the reconciliation to do health care , the entire tax bill. a couple of days after the election you wrote about reconciliation and in the context of tax reform you wrote -- it must be viewed as fair. "fairness in our system is defined as bipartisanship. arbitrary use will lead to extreme opposition by the minority and popular some or for their frustration." now, very prescient, here so how do we get to more bipartisanship? why is it the case that there seems to be none on capitol hill? judd: i think that history proves that phrase to be correct. the obama care act was passed
under reconciliation, no republicans voted for it. day one it was distrusted and not seen as fair or vile by a large percentage of the american population. tax reform should be done in a bipartisan way. the last time major tax reform was done, the match -- last major bill written was by myself and ron wyden. schumerately, senator has said that they are simply not going to cooperate, they are not going to participate in governing. the democratic leadership of the house and senate has walked away from the table. even though you have a number of people in the senate willing to go across the aisle on issues like tax reform, it doesn't appear that the leadership will allow them to. if the republicans want to do tax reform, regrettably, sincerely regrettably, it will have to be done under reconciliation and on a partisan
vote, with virtually no democrats supporting it. necessitate a it scaling back of ambition? you won't be able to go for the comprehensive bill? perhaps don't pursue personal corporate tax reform at the same time? i reading that wrong? judd: yeah, i'm afraid you are. right now democratic leadership in the senate and the house basically is an -- in an obstructionist position. they aren't willing to help the president on anything. even in infrastructure bill will be hard to pass. but a major or significant tax reform bill, they don't want to have any part of this. they want to be able to attack it as a tax cut for the rich. they made that conscious, political decision. it's regrettable. there is the identity of interest on tax reform. wyden drafted a tax
reform bill. a lot of democrats want to get rid of these deductions and exemptions because they consider it a special interest benefit and they will take a rate reduction in place of that and republicans want to get the rates down so that people invest or return rather for tax -- rather than tax avoid. it's an identity of politics, not political purpose. david: respectfully, aren't the democrats taking a page out of the playbook that the republicans used for the last eight years? had anublicans obstructionist agenda for the eight years that president obama was in the white house. can definitely argue that. there is no question that republicans took this position , startingident obama with obamacare, which was passed on a partisan vote. i think that would have been muted, considerably, if president obama and the democrats had participated, as they had been until the final passage, there was a bipartisan effort moving forward into the
middle of december when the rug was pulled forward from underneath them, had obamacare way,passed in a partisan -- bipartisan way, things would be a lot better for everybody. there in there 80's. what would you say to kevin brady now? to the ranking member of that committee, o'neill, about how to pursue this? back in 1987? someplaceuld say go quiet, take the whole committee there. he put us in a room, a small room, by the way, over in greenbrier. we worked it out between us, between the two parties. we understood we had some differences and we spent a fair amount of time negotiating on this in camera. with the politics of the coverage of the social media not existing than, it was easier to
do. i still think it's the best approach. you have got sincere people on both sides of the aisle who would participate. especially in the senate. i would take a hard run at that before i went on a purely partisan approach. david: republicans on the hill, democrats on the hill, don't like the budget. doesn't seem to have much support. what was your read from the white house last? was a hugeught it mistake. it was impractical. it was based on assumptions that had no viability and they claimed to reach balance when everyone knew that it didn't come close to being balanced. it didn't take on the two major issues that drive the deficit today on the spending side, medicare and social 30. as a result, it had no credibility.
from the time it was written, probably even before the ink was dry, it had no viability of a octor -- as a document of any seriousness on the hill. governor of new hampshire, judd gregg, joining us from the granite state. coming up, headed to the house floor for a vote, but we take a look at the financial chip -- choice act, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
rob: dodd-frank is a broad law, so the bill that would replace it is also broad. it would repeal the volcker rule, increasing congressional oversight at the fed, giving banks chance to hold more capital than giving them an offramp from additional regulations. it's really a lot there, we're just scratching the surface. david: my sense is that they ve been working on it for a while. what are his colleagues in the house thking about it? how likely is it to pass? to pass thekely house now. there was a provision in it that would repeal the so-called third amendment, the fees on debit card transactions. that divided the banking and retail lobbies and republicans were hearing from both sides of that. the new version of the bill heading to the floor next week does not repeal the cap, it used that law in place, so that's a
win for the retail groups. david: that's the south side, what about the north side? how will it fair with the senate? rob: democrats are loaded to change anything dodd-frank related. to change anything dodd-frank related. the bill is not going to go anywhere in the senate. you talked about reconciliation of it. aere's a chance that in second round they may be nibbling around the edges as it requires only 51 votes, but that be very limited. seen a newhave appointment of a new chairman, we've seen them talk about changing the rules of the oversight council. what does the white house think of this legislation in particular and of its approach? rob: we haven't heard directly from the right -- the white
house and endorsement. what you got instead was president trump directing the treasury department to review financial regulations under this set of core principles that they laid out, including mail outs and making regulations effectively tailored, using cost and if it analysis when making rules. we will see reports from treasury from that. we have heard that they will be looking at legislative fixes around community banking. while you haven't heard a full endorsement from the white house , a lot of those core principles to overlap with principles they have. what do they say about the likelihood of elements of this getting through the house and senate? pessimism, a lot of pessimism. targeted fixes, maybe, things the democrats could get behind,
but the choice act as a template for becoming a law is low. coming up on "overt markets," shares of ryan air trading at an all-time high. -- bloomberg markets," shares of ryan air trading at an all-time high. a quick reminder, you can catch all of our interviews on the bloomberg by looking at the function tv . this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: we are live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york over the next hour. we begin with politics -- president donald trp's fit week back in washington overshadowed by the west wing shakeup. trump is expected to make a decision on the paris climate accord. markets with a come back to the hedge fund theme -- bill cohan is setting an ambitious goal. u.s. markets close in two hours time. we ended friday little changed, but we did close at record highs. julie: