tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg June 9, 2017 10:00am-11:01am EDT
vonnie: here are the top stories we are covering -- the united kingdom prime minister theresa may is facing calls to resign after her party lost its parliamentary majority. the country is plunging into uncertainty just 10 days before brexit talks are due to begin. in markets, the british pound is falling by the most in five months but he was major averages are at records as investors are shrugging off a series of major events. in u.s. politics, another hearing as james comey lay down more questions about his conduct. this hour, we will talk about that. what a session it has been. the seastart with
count. with the seat count. the tories did not hav a majority. that's why they need an arrangement with a dup. few of the united kingdom. it looks very blue. the metropolitan areas are predominantly labral. -- labor. much a localized event, this u.k. election result. stocks are rising. the ftse is up today because sterling is low. by 1.7 percent. makes for bonds and commodities. this chart shows you sterling is down 2.7% against the dollar,
the biggest decline a few days after brexit. green line is if we had a small win for the tories and the labor is the line for lows and the one below that is the hung parliament. we are not yet to bear. soft something to do with brexit question mark the 10 year yield is down to 1.02%. we spoke to deutsche bank yesterday in they look at various scenarios. if labor had a minority coalition government at 1.5%, a small tory government .90% and none of those events well it is happened. the u.s. is at record today. we've got all three major averages at intraday records.
the financials are accounting for a lot of the gains today. 60% of the gain in the s&p 500 and that has to do with financials. these other ones rallying. it's a mix of different types of financials, different types of banks, big banks like tank of america and citigroup, morgan stanley representing the investment tank's banks are out of the equation. with what's going on with bond yields which have been to climbing consistently this week going into the fed position next week. according to traders, it's practically a lot we will see an increase in rates. it are a look at the financial etf along with the 10 year yield in white -- in blue. most recently, we have seen both of them go up. is here on the bottom so it's relatively strong. outside of that, there is one other important corporate story
we have to talk about it has to do with the drug industry. the fda in the u.s. has asked erdo to stop sales of ocana which is a powerful opioid painkiller. they wanted to make it less addictive. users were injecting it and set of snorting it. it led to an increase in hiv infections. endo to pullking it. those shares are rallying. mark: let's get to our team covering every angle of the u.k. election. we have our reporter at 10 downing street. nehara: we heard from prime minister theresa may outside
number 10 downing street after she went to the queen to get permission to form a government. without a majority in the house of commons, the only way for the conservatives to form a government is to have a coalition of some kind. may we heard from theresa is she said the conservatives are the only one with the legitimacy to bring certainty to the country. they also said they reached an arrangement with the democratic union party, the party of northern ireland. it's not clear with that arrangement is that the feeling is, it's a bit of a less formal coalition than what was reached between the conservatives and ems back in 2010. theresa may all its debt also talks about security. fairness andout opportunity and she said she would forge ahead with brexit. she said that's what the people voted for and she ended her speech by saying let's get to work. she has her work it out for her
and we expect her to name a cabinet later today while questions arise over how tenable her position is. there have been calls for her to resign. mark: what does this mean for brexit? until brexit talks are set to start at many people are getting confused as to what this means for brexit. hand, you can say this means a softer brexit. the x chancellor here in the u.k. says this throws the idea of a hard brexit into the dustbin. it certainly will not affect anyone short-term or maybe it emboldens a labor and perhaps thedup is the key. they wanted brexit but they crucially want a strong business relationship across the border into ireland.
they say a clean break it is at risk. you could also argue that this could lead to something that looks like quite a hard brexit. says toe minister in eu be careful, a lot of this vote was about austerity and not necessarily about brexit. the liberal democrats had about election and they were the closest thing you could find to a pro remain party. all kinds of interest. they feel the of the debt they have the ability to push theresa may around come a week and prime minister with a weakened majority. feelfort tory mp's strongly on brexit and she could still find yourself vulnerable to pushing and shoving. the clock is ticking. vonnie: a major trading action to mattt, let's get miller. what's the next catalyst? traders seem to be taking
a pause into the weekend. there was an amazing scene at credit suisse this morning. many traders were here for over 24 hours trading since yesterday morning. surprising quiet after the initial shock of the exit poll at 10:00 p.m. not a heck of a lot of volume in the cable trade and that's were all the action was. it was not in euro-sterling which went down with cable but not as much volume there. when we got the actual clarification that there was a hung parliament this morning around 6:45 a.m., you saw a big dip and a lot of volume come in to the cable trade, dropping down to 126.39. then it recover throughout the day and that resilience has surprised a lot of people. the question of whether this will be on the back of a softer brexit, the reason that investors don't want to sell the pound off has come up.
it's still not clear because theresa may is digging in her heels and may use this to push through an even harder brexit. nonetheless, we see the action 127.50.able at you saw a little recovery or euro-sterling but not much in the action seems to have shifted to different pairs, dollar-yen, that's where you see it coming away from this. it's a really localized story for the market. global politically but very localized as far as the actual risk asset trade. vonnie: thank you and thanks to our whole team. a great start to the show. is the seventh had we heard from in the first nine minutes of the show. you say it could be a terrible scenario in terms of brexit negotiations. why the you say that when some
suggest the outcome of today means we could be heading toward a softer brexit? >> you've got to rewind as to why this election was called. it was called in order to give theresa may a stronger mandate. it gives the u.k. government greater flexibility going into those negotiations. what i meant specifically is she has failed in the primary objective. there is no hiding bath. ultimately, when you are talking about soft brexit or hard brexit, there are people on both sides of this government be they or whomever and there is significant trauma within the group to potentially bring down the government. there is greater instability and that i think is a fact. mark: sterling matters today. this is the lightning rod where it is focused.
this is a wonderful chart showing us what the analysts have shown us. the red light is a strong vote and the green line is a narrow win and a hung parliament. is 123.50.ment could we still visit those levels? >> it's still possible but incorporated and that level of concern is the market. timelition takes a lot of to come together. it experience from 2010 is was not done in one day. one of the big surprises is that they were so close to getting a majority that it's a relatively simple coalition that has been put together and that has --owed her to essentially it's clear that the marriage of the government desk the attitude of the government's business as usual. it will not carry on indefinitely but over the
short-term, it has diminished the appetite for selling because of the speed in which we have this coalition in place. importantly, negotiations on brexit can begin on schedule on june 19. if that had been pushed back, the time for reaching a deal becomes smaller and smaller. that would have clearly worked against them. vonnie: technically, they can but will they? will theresa may survive the next couple of days as her party? what matters more to markets, who is the next p.m. or what type of coalition is created? question of her surviving -- there has been a daily of votes second place nationally. i think there is a clear indication that the appetite amongst voters is very low. ministert a new prime in place, you will hear the same old thing coming back about that
leader not having a mandate. there is a mandate there but it's not clearly what theresa may wants but they are the largest single party and therefore, she can push forward with that. for the time being, she can survive but clearly, she is in a considerably weaker position than she was before. vonnie: obviously, the pound sterling had a major reaction but gilt not so much. it depends on the bank of england continuing its thinking regardless of what happens with the next government. >> the important point on rates is the key toake the success of the labor performance was not about brexit. it was about the reasons why people voted for brexit last year. that was very much down to austerity about the nhs, education, falling incomes and therefore i think there will be a lot on this coalition
government to ease off on the degree of austerity. filter throughto with a realization in the markets, that could certainly have implications at the long end of the yield curve in the u.k. possibility for a soft brexit, impact on sterling -- give me levels? >> very short term because of the instability, we could still see further down slides. we had a positive view before that thed on our view focus of theresa may would be getting a favorable transition deal that could last up to two years. i see no reason to change that view. i still think there is perhaps a stronger potential for a favorable transition before we get to an all-encompassing trade deal. beyond the near-term of uncertainty, we still see potential to move higher. mark: thanks for joining us. what a day it has been.
mark: live from new york and london, i am mark barton. vonnie: and i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg markets. we are digging into oil and gold today which made big moves this week. joining us from the cm he is tim evans, chief market strategist at long relief trading. let's start with old. one of the other big moves overnight is that golden .terling terms was up 2%
i guess that was partially on the week starting. sterling tookund the brunt of the news last night. gold expressed in dollars has been down and that is explained by the big deferential in the movement of the dollar-pound last night. vonnie: where do you anticipate gold going from here? will sterling continue to have an impact? >> i think so. i'm a bit surprised by the lack of movement in gold and the fact that we are down over $10 going into the second half of the morning. the market did not blink a whole lot with respect to that in his development. ultimately as the situation evolves and whether prime minister make and formulate a coalition in the near-term and gain traction moving into the brexit negotiations, if she can
do that, gold should remain at these levels are not take out the $1300 level we have already tested. if she has difficulty here, ultimately, gold will benefit from that and we will head back to $1300 pretty quickly. the rally has been holding no matter what we throw at this market in terms of political risk in the u.s. or europe. the market is ignoring it except for some of the commodities. risk thethe biggest market is pricing in his domestic risk in the united states with respect to the trump administration's problems with russia. testimony while damaging in itself for different reasons, i think it took away some of they impeachment talk that was stirring and the speculation about what former director comey was going to talk about.
i don't think there was anything damaging enough to give the market the feeling that impeachment will be an impending threat. i think that safety came out of the market because of that. vonnie: what happens next week for oil? 45 dollarsng at which is down two dollars so do we reverse? >> the news flow is on the side of the bears. continue to be a supply story. we had news from china just yesterday about their production falling by 6.8%. in may, the imported the largest amount of crude oil, the second largest on a monthly basis in history so there is plenty of demand to work with. that supply side story will need to improve to have the market hold at $45 and move back toward $50. vonnie: that was futures in focus. mark: still ahead, the future of one of the most buzzed about
vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. friday and here is julie hyman. julie: here with a look at how are active managers are fighting back against passive investment is the senior etf analyst at bloomberg intelligence. there are various conferences this week that we had it bloomberg. what did you hear? what to people say about how they can stop the outflows we have been seeing? >> it's on the active side. one thing is get cheaper, lower your fees is one way which is vanguards advise. their active funds are taking in money. we look at all the active mutual
funds and about 40 basis points, does notmore expensive help outflows. anything less and 40 basis points at least is treading water. thell 40 basis points demarcation line between cheap and expensive. only 13% of active funds are below that line now. a lot of selfre cannibalization to go there but investors want cheap and there is no getting around it. that's one way you could do it. julie: another ways maybe to repackage the strategy into an index. how does that work? if you cannot beat them join them, take your active strategy in a market fund and let's make an index out of that strategy. then we will have an etf track it. a number of indices have skyrocketed lately because of this. big jump is because
companies like goldman sachs, fidelity, john hancock are taking their active strategies indexes.rting them to they are cheaper and they are more tax efficient so you can repackage yourself. julie: what about asset allocation active question mark >> that's using passive vehicles actively. they are passive but that is active. go overweight china, underweight health care, this is putting the assets into etf models taste on allocation and many people do it. it's happening a lot in institutional well. julie: you think high active share home run king active -- what does that even mean? >> if you destroy the market like we had oppenheimer on the panel, one of their funds is beating the world index by 15 percentage points. you are probably going to get assets.
they charge 1.2%. julie: outperformance trumps everything. >> we have seen some that outperform a little. i think the home run king, people start to use that and will sprinkle a little that on the edge of their portfolio is more passive. high active shares are the way. julie: active versus pat still ahead, u.s. energy secretary rick perry sits down for an exclusive interview with bloomberg. he says natural gas is at the heart of the u.s. ranking with china. more next, this is bloomberg. ♪
look at first word news. emma: theresa may is clinging to power after her disastrous gamble to call election. her conservative party has lost its majority in parliament. now she will need the help of the northern ireland democratic unionist party. the u.k. and eu are preparing for exit negotiations. >> securing a new partnership with the eu which guarantees our long-term prosperity. that's what people voted for last june. that's what we will deliver. now let's get to work. had hoped to start brexit talks on june 13. the talks on climate change from president trump are lowering expectations for it the g7 meeting next month. they say they will not get what they hoped for. all 20 leaders
are behind it. lawyers for president trump had to file a complaint by the justice department about former director james comey which had to do with him leaking information about the president after he was fire. lawyers will also file a complaint with the senate judiciary committee. the woman accused of leaking a top-secret u.s. report about russian hacking has been denied bail. a federal magistrate in georgia said reality winner had taken other classified information that could still be passed to america's enemies. she worked for a government contractor and pleaded not guilty to espionage charges. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you and we are staying with u.s. politics.
fired fbi director james comey testimony about his medication with president trump dominated the conversation on capitol hill. how does it impact the trump agenda? along with the president of the freedom coalition. >> we are here with mark meadows. we are at the heritage foundation. we are looking at trying to come to an agreement on four principles the next four weeks. one of those is to reduce corporate and small business income tax rates down to 20% and make sure we do that. we want a repatriation of the next 20 months, 8% to bring the foreign earnings back. we want to look at the expensing side of things, to make sure that it's either immediate or at least an accelerated appreciation where we can make sure we get the economy going again and the last one is looking at doubling the standard
adduction for individuals. that combinedf together with not only produce a but it could be a consensus builder here in the house and the senate. >> there has been a lot of frustration on wall street and main street. people are wondering when we will actually get a plan. are you suggesting that people should not leave for the august recess until there is a cohesive plan among republicans? >> exactly come i think we need to be about the people's work. they believe we need to make some decisions. i think we can make those by the end of july but if not, we need to stay into august to get it done. we need to make sure we get the economy rolling again. it sounds like the border adjustment tax will not be in the freedom caucus plan. and we can debate the merits of the border adjustment tax but what we cannot debate is there is not consensus. that is finite. let's move on and figure out how
we make tax reform work without it. it will not be in the freedom caucus plan but it is a source of a trillion dollars worth of revenue. >> how do you make up for that money? >> what you do is the full and immediate, you look at maybe doing accelerated depreciation but not full and the media because that would lower the cost by about half. we are also looking at welfare reform. able-bodied adults need to work in order to get those things without dependent children. that is over a $400 billion revenue. those two things combined with getting rid of border adjustments should balance it we don't wanted to run it -- we don't want to run into the revenue neutral issues in year nine. >> i interviewed mitch mcconnell and he said it has to be revenue
neutral. >> the tactic we are using has to be budget neutral but when you talk about revenue neutral, you're just taking one tax burden and moving it to something else. we need to stimulate the economy. that's not something we have been critically emphasizing but i think we need to do that. , weou allow them to expire hope to get the economy growing at 3% gdp. >> when you talk about welfare and food stands, you'll get criticism from democrats but you getl potentially opposition from some in the republican party. they are up for reelection so what is your message to them? >> it's simple. it's that if we look at a record requirement, that's something that 80% of americans should do
come a work requirement. not those with children or those truly hurting, able-bodied adults who could work who should work in order to get those benefits. we are setting a low threshold of 20 hours per week. that is not a high standard that most americans, even democrats in my district, can support that. quickly aboutalk the developments on health care in the senate. you guys were in intense negotiations in the house. were you disappointed what's been happening in the senate? >> i applaud them. i had a number of discussions with senators. agree with all the principles but that's why we have 535 members in congress. as we look at that, what we will see out of that is some real meaningful amendments, some of which i will applaud and some which i may not. ultimately, i think we get a deal and we send it to the president's desk. >> your thoughts on the testimony yesterday from james
comey. >> it was a day that vindicated the president. when you have director comey three-time saying he was not under investigation and there is not only no evidence of collusion but most just jim. the testimony would say there is no collusion when it came down to some testimony with tom cotton and some of the others. ultimately, what people care about is the tax reform. and transportation. will the policy stuff be impacted by the james comey testimony? >> it has been impacted but we have to look at the agenda on main street and allow the special counsel to do his job and we redirect that emphasis, they want to see is getting things done and watching tim, and sadly, there are not a whole lot of wins we can put on the board. >> there has been talk this morning about white house administration officials and the
trump attorney filing a complaint with the department of justice as a result of former fbi director testifying yesterday that he was involved with a leak to reporters regarding these memos. is that the right approach question mark >> i'm not an attorney but i can say that confidential memos the confidential and when you take it upon yourself to leak it to the press to get a desired director- we know comey objected to a whole lot of things going on with loretto lynch and the clinton foundation. why didn't he leak something at that point question mark i think we need to make sure that leaks don't happen whether it's the fbi or the epa or anywhere else. we also need to make sure we are protected on the cyber front. >> exactly. no one has been more supportive that. we have to make sure that russia does not have the ability to hack into our systems so we need to get more robust funding and make sure we take that serious. >> so much to talk about this
week, we appreciate your time. back to you. vonnie: fantastic, that was the chairman of the house of freedom caucus, congressman mark meadows. mark: prime minister theresa may is reorganizing her government after the u.k. election and world leaders are evaluating their relationship with the u.k. rick perry a firm the u.s. and the u.k. in an exclusive interview. he also talked about his takeaway on the corporation between the -- the cooperation between the u.s. and china from his trip to beijing. >> it's not just an energy story. it's an economic developer and story. energy is right at the heart of it. into china is next ordinary opportunity for both sides. -- the shale revolution has change the entire landscape of energy. a very, very
important role. >> did you get any closer to china signing a long-term contract for l&g? >> we were able to share with that ourpremier ability to deliver l&g was very substantial. our desire to be a participant in this market is very strong. the will is there and i think both governments will come together working with the private sector and find some great opportunities for american energy coming into china. paris climate change, you are right to want to stay in because it has reduced americans role and we are seeing china and europe step into that void. >> i think it's rather interesting that those of you who said you must stay in don't
have some reality to your view which is i could argue it and i have said that you could stay in but at the end of the day, the administration made the decision and i agree with it. when you looked at the cost versus the benefits you get from being in the paris agreement, it was not worth it. the big ceos are wrong on this issue? wronghink they are because they are coming at a from the political side of it rather than the reality side of it. i look at it from the reality side. we will continue to be leaders in clean energy. that will happen. u.s. energy secretary rick perry in an exclusive interview. could saudi arabia
vonnie: live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. in london, i am mark barton and this is bloomberg markets. time for the bloomberg business flash. it's a milestone for the fda. in a fight against pain drug abuse, regulators have asked endo to stop sales of its opioid painkiller. it's the first time the fda has taken a step like this. drug users have started injecting the medication leading to an outbreak of hepatitis c and hiv.
single-parent alphabet is selling part of its company to japan. sellingon what the prices for boston dynamics. softbank is buying japanese robotics company sha. beenlobal forecast has boosted for airline production. get pushedles will to 35,000 over the next few years. timell be driven by first buyers and the opening of new airports. that's your latest bloomberg business flash. trump: president donald has offered rex tillerson the position of mediating the qatar crisis. -- persian gulf monetary
monarchy is little but it has for itself as an outside power broker in a volatile region. thanks to vast reserves of natural gas, it enjoys the highest per capita income. soon after president donald trump visited saudi arabia last month, the saudi's and the uae and the egypt cut ties with qatar accusing qatar of supporting iranian backed terrorist groups. qatar calls the accusations baseless but this comes on top of other woes. fusion investments made qatar the world's largest exporter of natural cook gas but -- natural gas but a huge glut has cut the price. it has caused the government to restrain spending. sovereign wealth fund has not lost its appetite for high-profile yields. it's the biggest shareholder in
germany's volkswagen and remains one of the largest investors in barclays. qatar commercial from that shadow of saudi arabia in 1995. they put the nation on an ambitious course. it launched al jazeera and hosted u.s. troops and supported troops in the arab uprising. freedom of expression is severely limited. told of being the region mediator is threatened by the loss of dimock debt -- of diplomatic ties with saudi allies.nd its some analysts questioned their value of spending. plans to cut back government jobs and it could invite more questions. about qatar onre the bloomberg. let's get the latest
diplomatic a developments in saudi arabia. let's go to doha. been written about this feud but to what extent could hurt the world's biggest oil exporter, saudi arabia? a i will get to the impact in second. there are some key developments in the last few hours. there is a joint publication from the saudi led alliance of a list that includes organizations that they say are links to terrorism and are backed by qatar. on the other hand, you've got a response from the top diplomat in qatar reacting to those accusations. that they can sustain the economic pressure of sanctions and can live like this forever. 50% of saudi food they have replaced. this is what's happening regionally. also the uae minister of state
alliestar running to its iran and turkey, that's not diplomacy. that's escalation. if you want to do real diplomacy, you should engage with your peers in this side of the world. rex tillerson we understand has been offered as a possible mediator but we don't have any tangible progress. vonnie: i was going to ask what rex tillerson can do and what the u.s. wants out of this. the u.s. does not want to alienate saudi arabia and some of the other countries on this. you are right. ultimately, they have to walk a difficult diplomatic path. they have a central command in qatar. arabia whereaudi they just refurbished this alliance and created a new counterterrorism act if you want
to call it that. saudi arabiak to because they have been tying -- trying to terrapin rulebook, attract foreign investment and diversify away from oil and now you've got a new conflict possibly right around the corner. it's a split within a split in a region that's already suffering -- from enough political turmoil. there is the risk of spill over in terms of investor sentiment, people used of put money to work in terms of risk perception. overnight, all of this changes. if you look at credit default swaps, they are not higher than peru or slovenia. mark: it has been suggested that qatar can fight back by maybe pulling out of the gcc. what other options does it have to fight back against saudi arabia and its gulf neighbors? it's got quite a few items in
its arsenal. they say they can sustain the economic pressure. you spoke about what the sovereign wealth has in terms of assets around the world. it's also got the energy pipeline which is gas the goes from qatar to the united arab emirates. they say that's a critical piece of infrastructure and once that gas stops flowing, that could be a new level of escalation. it's also got some of the key allies like turkey. i understand we are going to station troops in doah and on saturday, they will be a meeting between the foreign ministers of russia and qatar. we will see how russian approaches this with qatar and saudi arabia. vonnie: what does it mean for the qatar funding? you mentioned the sovereign bonds. there is a drop in sovereign
bonds when the s&p downgraded qatar. when will qatar be up against it in terms of funding? it will be an uphill struggle. the country has been facing liquidity pressures compared to its peers. . it's still investment grade but it's relative we have seen quite a few asset classes. qatar equities is down about 7% this week. it's the worst performing equity market in as part of the world. interbank rates of been creeping up at levels we have not seen in seven years. this goes to a very sensitive point you just a lucid, further measures in terms of curbing and specifically targeting financial flows between the two countries which could raise the level of risk punch further than it currently is and reflect it in the credit ratings as they are at the moment. mark: great job, thank you.
mark: live from london in new york and london, i am mark barton. let's get to what's happening coming up on the european close. we are less than 35 minutes until the end of the friday session. it has been all about u.k. , the majority that never was for the conservative party. the stoxx 600 is shrugging it off and the ftse is up. let's get to the currencies. stirling is up by 2.5%. a couple of days before june 27
last year, the pound is down against the dollar and the euro is up. giltsis moving into u.k. to date with the 10 year down slightly. what a day it has been. hours: even the last 12 and the press conferences keep coming. there is another one in great britain right now. later today, an exclusive conversation with laxton ceo steve schwarzman. -- with blackstone ceo steve schwarzman. we will hear his perspective on u.s. growth, investing, infrastructure, president trump's relationship of china and more. this is bloomberg. ♪
this is the european close on bloomberg markets. ♪ mark: here are the top stories we are covering from the bloomberg and around the world. in the u.k., theresa may struggling to keep control. what does this mean for brexit talks, which are in days away? germy corbyn says he is ready to serve the country. we will hear from the labor mps who supports the leader. and in the u.s. come the day after fired fbi director james comey accused president trump of lying, the president is turning his attention back to his attention that agenda with an instructor speech this hour. we'll have a look at