Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  June 14, 2017 2:30am-4:01am EDT

2:30 am
it all adds up to our most reliable network ever. one that keeps you connected to what matters most. guy: good morning and welcome. you're watching bloomberg markets. this is the european open. your first cash trade of the session coming up shortly. i am guy johnson. matt miller is in berlin. what are we watching? the fed is widely expect it to raise rates but will janet yellen provide any clues on the trimming of the $4.5 billion fed balance sheet? avoiding a hard landing. british business groups him for
2:31 am
a soft brexit. we will speak to kenny jacobs from ryanair. and a more sustainable path that there is an urgency to accelerate reforms grade will be joined by david litan joining us live from beijing. less than half an hour away from the european open. take a look at how the index futures are trading. we have gains on the continent, not in london but little movement therefore ftse futures. you can take a look at bunds. investors are buying bunds, pushing the yield down. bund yields remain incredibly low. the imf to bring you headlines. you can see them rolling across the bottom of your screen. the imf is raising its outlook forecast's gdp growth to 6.7% from 6.6%. david lipton who will be with us live says that china reforms in
2:32 am
progress need to accelerate but so far, it looks like it is enough to lift's the imf growth 6.7%, then china to second increase the imf has put out for its china forecast this year. very interesting stuff on the china front. you will get that live at 8:30 a.m. london time directly from david lipton. guy: i wonder what the imf makes of the credit impulses fading in china? great -- greek stocks continue to be well bid. a fascinating read, that was the story yesterday of 1.6%. the aussie market well bid overnight. --t is happening is what is interesting is what is happening overnight. the bloomberg dollar index down by .1 of 1%. the pound has got traction which seeing ftsee
2:33 am
futures indicating a lower start later on.ndon market let's find out what is happening in west london. let's get a bloomberg first word news update. here's juliette saly. juliette: thank you. in london, 30 people have been hospitalized after a huge blaze engulfed the tower block in the west of the city. the fire started at 1:00 a.m. u.k. time and emergency crews were at the scene six hours later. it is not clear if residents were trapped but people at the scene spoke of not being will to reach friends and family who had been inside. still in the u.k., prime minister theresa may is under pressure to abandon her plan for hard brexit. that comes as she tries to stitch together a deal with the democratic unionist party that will keep her tories and power. emmanuel acheron echoed the german finance minister who said it would not be too late for the
2:34 am
u.k. to change its mind and stay in the eu. the u.s. attorney general has denied any suggestion that he colluded with russia to interfere with last year's presidential election. jeff sessions was speaking during his appearance in front of the senate can't -- intelligence community -- committee. >> to suggest i which is abated in any collusion, that i was aware of any collusion with the russian government to hurt this country which i have served with honor for 35 years or to undermine the integrity of our democratic process is an appalling and detestable light. related, there is the assertion not answer senator franken's question honestly at my confirmation hearing. colleagues, that is false. jeffrey good lock has said the washington establishment is trying to undermine donald trump by
2:35 am
distraction. he called the u.s. political conflict a sideshow or entertainment that was being used to obstruct the president's agenda. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you. decision day, decision-making -- for the fed. yellen has an opportunity to clarify the outlook. the inflation story definitely interesting. the balance sheet absolutely interesting. let's bring in mark cudmore. are we going to get any close as fed's path is for
2:36 am
reducing its balance sheet? mark: i hope we would get some kind of direction. the market is looking, this is one of the more important things that we need to get further is theyhe expectation will start reducing at the start of next year but we expect to go more down. it seems like the plan will be very gradual balance sheet reduction. i wonder -- where does that take us, does the balance sheet take us to where we were precrisis? mark: i do not think it is near there. will reduce very slowly but the balance sheet will stay elevated for many years to come. it is a situation that will evolve slowly. indication ofsome
2:37 am
what their plans are because that says how they see the path of inflation going, i do not think we should get to settle on what they say. as they start reducing the balance sheet that will realize it is harder than they thought and it will go slowly. going to make it difficult to reduce the balance sheet? mark: there's so much it liquidity in the system, not because of central-bank balance sheets, they must next their balance sheets around the world. the only way the balance sheet is if ranks like the doj -- boj and [indiscernible] you have to assume that the world is roughly correlated to some extent. it is unlikely the u.s. will get runaway inflation wild the ecb and boj need to bump in liquidity drastically. if the u.s. is getting
2:38 am
inflation, there are some inflationary pressures which mean they are more likely to taper there programs which make it hard for the fed to reduce the balance sheet. fed at what point does the a attention to will happen later on the summer which is a big debate over the debt ceiling, there is a debate coming up on the budget, on health care. the debt ceiling is front and center in all this. that has not featured in the commentary surrounding the decision-making process but at some point if the debt ceiling becomes an issue, it will have to. need to start keeping and i on it. it has not been part of the conversation but that is because they haven't -- have a bigger problem. they are not generating enough inflation or inflationary pressures. while the debt ceiling is a concern it is a secondary issue. since the primary issue is something they have not solved yet they do not need to get too distracted on that secondary
2:39 am
issue. had uphat chart that you on the balance sheet, it is striking in that the ecb has boosted its balance sheet so , it is this last year pretty amazing to see that climb. you can see highlighted in green. as we talk about normalization of the ecb policy much they are adding to the balance sheet. what i want to get to with you is the bitcoin story. you talk about it on the mliv blog today. amazing climb for bitcoin, touching up against $3000 for a moment. you say now it is time for a top. mark: it might be time for a short-term top. this is an asset that has no fundamental anchor in terms of how you can value it. it is how much people want to buy it for. we saw it rise over 200% in the last 11 weeks to hit 3000 on
2:40 am
monday and it fell off more than 15% after one of the exchanges went down. that kind of volatility after a may cause -- rise hesitation. that is increasing the option value holding cash of having a money on deposit. those two factors probably means bitcoin could pull back. that might mean a 30% drop or a 10% drop. yearll get up to 5000 this again probably. it is not possible to define an exact value. you cannot say this is the all-time top. matt: you're talking about gold or bitcoin? mark: bitcoin. about the was a joke anchor and the fact that the fed will raise interest rates and goal does not pay any interest, either. you can follow his insights and .am on mliv
2:41 am
the want to point out tv . it is another function that you can use to watch us but not only to watch us, you hit -- see the video stream and the conversation with mark. you can see the functions we are talking about as well as the charts that we use. you can pull up those charts and use them throughout the day and you can talk to us by clicking on the link below and send a question in for our guests or for guy or myself. the eu says it hasn't opened a policy to the u.k. to change itscome mind on brexit. emmanuel macron express the same sentiment. we will continue to discuss this next. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:42 am
2:43 am
2:44 am
guy: let's get an update on the london fire with juliette saly. u.k., 30 people have been hospitalized after a huge blaze engulfed a tower -- west london. the fire started at 1:00 a.m. u.k. time and emergency services were at the scene six hours later. it is not clear if residents were trapped what people at the scene spoke of not being up to reach friends and family who had been inside. ber reeling from its ceo taking
2:45 am
a leave of absence has been hit with the resignation of the co-founder from its board. the exit comes after he made a sexist comment during a meeting intended to address their rampant gender bias. the company will be run by a management committee as it tries to navigate away from scandals. reporting quarterly earnings that rose at the fastest pace in two years. the threened in months or april. that is as online sales bolstered growth at the spanish clothing retailer. business -- disney is ending a 27 year run as a independent company. it struggled to match the popularity of its u.s. counterpart and had to be bailed out by its parent at least three times. disney holds more than 97% of
2:46 am
the capital of euro disney after it [inaudible] last year. that is your bloomberg business flash. matt: thanks for a much. with the help of an incredible team i spoke exclusively with the german finance minister yesterday. one of the things we discussed was brexit. he said the u.k. would be welcome back to the european union if the british decide they no longer want to leave. he also mentioned last week's election results. colleague told me that they are thinking about what does it mean that a lot of voted for labor, not for the conservative party. the idea that, the reason they , [inaudible] it is what they are thinking.
2:47 am
there are some parallels. if you look at the french election. generation [inaudible] -- very much favor in favor. there is an opportunity to bring europe forward. the first day that brexit is a decision we have to accept by the british voters but we will minimize the potential damage and maximize the benefit. think these young voters, do you think that britain has the ability to turn -- isround, is that is there a possibility that brexit does not happen? >> it wouldn't -- would not be helpful if we started speculation.
2:48 am
if they wanted to change they would find open doors it i think it is not very likely. more what if they wanted time to negotiate. they said the eu is ready but the u.k. needs to sort some things out before they come to the table. it has been three months since article 50 and they have not started. can they have more time? the negotiations will now start and they have agreed before that in the first round the terms ofotiate brexit and as soon as it is done we can [inaudible] and what will be the further relations between the u.k. after brexit and the single market and the european union and so on.
2:49 am
and therefore let's start the negotiation. we will always come to reasonable decisions create it is too early. guy: and emmanuel macron echoing those comments following a meeting with theresa may. he said the doors always open until brexit talks are concluded. where are the french in terms of their view on the way that brexit will progress from here and how does that fit in with the british? is worthing that noting is after the comments, they said once talks have started it is hard to go back. this idea that could be a reversal, it is very much in its
2:50 am
infancy. the french now are sitting there with emmanuel macron enjoying a huge majority which will be confirmed in the next few days and then theresa may who was supposed to be on her victory the big having gained majority she was expecting now leading a government that is hanging by a thread. that is the thing that we need to stress here with any talk of brexit negotiations. at the moment, we still do not have an alliance with the dup. this will be concluded in the next 24 hours and her future is for a much in the balance. we do not know who will be leading the negotiations in a few months time. matt: where do we go from here and i am thinking of the timeline for negotiations. i asked yesterday if that britons could have more time, surely they are going to need it, no? >> i would be amazed if they
2:51 am
were not needed. theresa may said talks will start next week as planned. she is putting up a good show. the fact is it is pretty likely that we may get another election in the next few months. we have a very weak government that even once it gets the alliance with the dup would be foldable to any opposition from its own party and this is the that istive party absolutely fractured especially over brexit. you have all these pro-remain mps who have that feel they have this new strength and voice. we are in for an interesting run here to say the least. reporting live from paris on the meeting that took place between the french president and the current british prime minister. we are minutes away from the market open.
2:52 am
we'll take a look at today's movers including the world's largest clothing retailer. income missed expectations. we will deal with the numbers one we come back. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:53 am
2:54 am
guy: you're looking at live pictures of the tower in west london. 30 people have been taken to hospital. this high-rise caught fire overnight.
2:55 am
the we are now learning and london fire commissioner has been talking to reporters to provide an update. there have been "a number of site.ties" at the tower it is difficult to be any more specific. we understand a number of fatalities have resulted from this fire. details remain limited at this stage. are oneures obviously of a massive tower block that is up in flames overnight. it is smoldering now but the pictures from overnight absolutely catastrophic. we will provide you with more details as we come through the morning, as we get more details emerging from the emergency services. if you know the geography of london, north kensington along exit enters, the
2:56 am
london in terms of the main road. we have learned from the london fire brigade that a number of fatalities have resulted. an incredibly sad morning for london. this is bloomberg. ♪
2:57 am
2:58 am
2:59 am
guy: minutes until the cash open in europe. fairly mixed, not a clear sense of direction. u.s. markets on the front foot. yesterday we saw a new height may be made. the pound is a bit stronger this morning which means the ftse a little lower. the cac and the dax both tracking a little higher as well. in market open that lacks a sense of direction. but considering what we have seen of late, maybe not such a bad thing. plenty of political volatility to talk about what the markets remain as calm as ever. matt? matt: later on, we get the fed
3:00 am
decision and that is something the market proudly won't react to because they have already priced in an increase. i have a chart, this is headline pce. they had turned down recently and that is why people expect more of a dovish hike from the fed. the market opening story right now, let's shake you what is happening. london on the 75 level, not much movement. london opening a little firmer, maybe .5% out of the dax and the cac. probably more in line where the fair value was. 7496 was where we were trading. only one stock going ex dividend. european markets giving a slight different direction. ftse 100 down less than .1%. manus cranny? manus: volatility is at a four-year low in the
3:01 am
bond market. government formation for theresa may and the democratic unionists, what price is that going to be in terms of money and in terms of politics? trump the dove? the dovish complexion a mario draghi last week. that is the debate. coming in, a on central-bank policy, financials dropping .2%. macron holding out the all of france. they may have beaten england in football, but they are friendly in terms of coming back. this is sterling. this is the 50% retracement line with the tough part to the pound last year. when we tried to get above the 134 level. now it looks as if the benchmark level is 38.2% on the downside.
3:02 am
38.2% feek at this fibonacci level. the wagers are as long as they can be. he said he was updating his 12 month view on the euro to around 117. you may see near-term tips because of the time and risk. that could take us back a little bit and also because a clearer may openifferentials up with the federal reserve and european central bank in the medium-term. let's get rid of my conversation. nobody wants to know what is in my ib check. there, china. stocks market down by .7%. raising their growth view on china for the second time in as
3:03 am
many months from 6.5 at the start of the year, 6.6, now 6.7%. but you need reform. if the progress is going to continue. but near-term risks have receded. where have we heard that kind of rhetoric before? mario draghi. the china stock market down .7%. the market for you on an has the market expects. theyberg intelligence say can't go lockstep in terms of moving the rate higher because of risk growth from the second half. guy: enjoy yourself, manus cranny. let's look at where the market is in terms of the movers. , making up the story on the upside. i want to talk about the downside. been chen and bnp have selling stock at around the 45
3:04 am
level. gkn, who to compel -- outokumpo making up the downside. we will talk to ryanair later. let's talk about the fed and what is going on in the treasury market. here really important regarding volatility and the treasury market. it continues to tumble as traders and investors are well prepared for the federal reserve to hike. it is very much priced in today. if the central bank provides details on any plans to turn the bauman sheet, this could help wake the treasury market up. chart, one ofis the first ones our producer, hillary clark, put together. volatility is at a level in blue that we haven't seen since before ben bernanke's famous
3:05 am
jackson hole paper speech in 2013. -- it hasn't been this low since the taper tantrum. guy: it is interesting to see what is going on. i wonder if we get a shakeup soon considering what the fed may do. will that process change the game when it comes to treasury market? will politics, that ceiling -- the debt ceiling? what you make of the incredibly complacent treasury market and be, what will shake it up? the fed, the balance sheet or something else? has set a clear path. it has tried to regain what gave away and do the same with respect to the balance sheet. 450 billionig possibly. they tried to give the indication they will roll a significant quantity of that.
3:06 am
i think how much they can do will be contingent on what trump and congress can actually achieve in terms of providing an additional fiscal stimulus. i have been done here with you for a year and a half. we need to move on from monetary stimulus to fiscal stimulus. it was all he was about. so far, he is not delivered. the problem is, if they fail to deliver this year, the risk is the republicans lose it term elections next year and they initiated they had and the goodwill the markets gave them starts to fade. for us, the fed move is contingent on what fiscal stimulus comes through. a we suddenly find significant stimulus provided by congress through tax cuts or other measures, we could see the actual balance sheet shrink faster than the market anticipates. our central view is it is difficult to get things through
3:07 am
congress and there is a large amount of negotiation. the delta is never that big. consequently, we expect rate --es today and expect whether it is december or sooner, depends on the state. the delta for the federal reserve comes down to which inflation. most of the barometers and measures we look at our green and would indicate rate rises. but wages are stubbornly lacking in inflation. of days ago,e president trump mentioned no president has ever achieved so much in his first 150 days. i'm not sure exactly what he was talking about, but certainly none of the stimulus measures you have talked about -- how -- argue thatare the trump administration can get tax reform passed, real infrastructure spending past, can get really regulation going
3:08 am
enough to goose the economy? piers: well, that is the critical question. will come down to paul ryan in the house and whether he can muster the coalition to pass that through. there are two parts to your question. the tax reform piece, which generally speaking, there is an acceptance they need to reform the u.s. code. the u.s. needs to be more competitive. up to two -- up to $4 trillion sitting offshore that can be monetized back to the u.s.. that would be part of my fiscal stimulus package would offset fed, reducing their balance sheet. the critical one is the infrastructure piece. it is rather generalist that the for as underinvested significant corporate time. most state governments who would have to match fed funds simply aren't able to do that. in many instances, because of
3:09 am
tension deficits. if the fed raised rates, pension for me, butdown and one interesting thing they should explore is whether you schememe form of turnout that helps states apply for fed funding and say, if we build a new airport, the revenues that come from that will pay down our debt obligation over a period of time. guy: the thing about the fed is, raising rates is a free option now. my argumentt a in for this. these are financial conditions in the united states. the blue line is the fed rate hikes. they hike, conditions get easier. this is a free pass. piers: today, that is right. it is a question of where we go from here. the reason we have not got a trajectory of steeper rate rises , the transmission mechanism you would expect -- i often talk
3:10 am
about the velocity of money in the economy. that is part of the problem. basically what is part of that is the way we capture data in national statistics is not capturing the nature of change in the way we work. the full-time employment as measured by historical statistics is diminishing. you are seeing a rise in flexible working people choosing to work in different ways. see it in our own business. have got to understand the millennial generation thinks about employment and how they differently. time as a consequence, stats understate that. where you see availability in jobs, the job survey goes from strength to strength saying there a millions of jobs available. at the same time, the unemployment rate is dropping because people are taking part-time, but we are not capturing that in the economy. a lot of people are
3:11 am
self-employed or choosing to employ himself in different ways. you can see it on this chart here. something the fed needs to think about. piers hillier will stay with us. let me give you an update on what is happening in west london. we have life pictures -- live pictures of the tower. this is just in the west way. the london fire commissioner has said in the last few minutes there has been a "number of fatalities." we will keep you informed throughout the morning with more details. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:12 am
3:13 am
3:14 am
♪ welcome back to "bloomberg markets: the european open." line to take a look at the markets, open for 14 minutes. green arrows across the board but not a big move in london. the dax up one third of a percent. the cac and paris up two thirds of a percent. the broader stoxx 600 index up .4%. let's look in your mid-cap movers. for that, nejra cehic. nejra: u.k. homebuilder beltway hitting its highest in almost a month. robust marketut conditions, the housing market remains positive, they see full-year housing completions
3:15 am
growth at 10%. that reacting positively. on the downside, euronext. this is about b.n.p. paribas selling a 3% stake, worth about -- the two frank banks are selling these shares to institutional investors in an accelerated book telling, they find a new shareholder agreement . a group of about eight shareholders retaining a 24% stake in this new pack. euronext down 2.3%. finally, gkn, this company produces automotive components and aerospace vehicles. this is about an analyst regrading. we have seen a downgrading of gkn from a cell to a halt. a is lower by 1.5%. is between aney rock and a hard place.
3:16 am
the bank of england's governor is not seeing inflation accelerating faster than anticipated with the latest figure 2.9% yesterday. a four year high. new minority government and plenty of uncertainty around brexit. more data today. unlikely to be keeping pace with the headline inflation rate, is still with us. which will it be next from the bank of england, a hike or a cut? piers: very good question. tomorrow, no change. ultimately, direction of travel is probably the height. partly because the weakness in -- the hike. partly because of the weakness in sterling. the same way we talked about the u.s., it is not the similar here.
3:17 am
arguing for a stimulus because of uncertainties around brexit. a long time i have been banging on about the fact it is not monetary stimulus we need, it is fiscal stimulus. the government have got to say look, -- >> that is the mood music. people are talking about -- >> they didn't deliberate. they didn't have a chance in the budget to do something. election,ve had an the balance of power shifted within the government. is the ability that he has now to maybe purring back some of the cuts or deliver less austerity or less -- add more stimulus. that is a possibility. say that happens? two thingsus, the that would help the economy. long-term capital allocation. for a long time, pension funds, etc., used to allocate huge
3:18 am
exposure to equity, provided natural investment into the economy. in 1997, we cut the dividend tax credit. that is 20% of your long-term return went to the stroke. this is important because back then, earnings came from overseas, your concern is that taxesment is subsidizing it didn't receive. we should reinstate tax credit similarly to australia. it is available for qualifying investor. allocationincrease to equity, long-term capital flows into u.k. domestic businesses that employ in the u.k. economy. that means you could get interesting scenarios like toyota or nissan enlisting u.k. business and paying out to long-term investors. that is long-term capital allocation which commits to jobs. the other thing they should do
3:19 am
is create a centralized infrastructure fund. there are acres of pension schemes desperate to buy. we all know they are overvalued structurally because they've got the mind -- demand out there. they all by non--- elongated lingers. use that money and when we build we think youcture, need the option to convert those into an infrastructure fund. consolidate, local authority pension schemes, we've got bigger natural buyers, infrastructures and asset class is something that would reform part of a long term diversified portfolio. the problem today is infrastructure is hard and expensive to access. we do it through utilities and things. those would be my two things if i were in charge today. matt: piers, whether the pound? where do we see sterling going?
3:20 am
you see net position in yellow. and the candlestick trade on the pound in blue and white. a big drop after the election. softeret ready for a brexit, the market starts to price that in. does the pound have to rise against the dollar? this is a trade-off between the direction of travel we talked about with the federal reserve in terms of what their strategy is. does that trend continue? this longe reason why is in europe, is the belief the european economy is improving and the ecb starts to slow. that same argument will come into the u.k., if we went to a softer brexit, we put fiscal stimulus pieces with i talked about, sterling would rise because the bank of england inclination is right. we don't have to provide it in
3:21 am
monetary terms. is that monetary stimulus principally goes into financial systems. it doesn't need to going to be u.k. economy. are in our banks improving trend. the spread they make and the noty they earn as banks is there and that is because central banks are sitting on compression. i was here saying it is a big mistake putting in that by corey graham -- by program of corporate bonds. they need to step back from the trough and stimulus -- figure -- fiscal stimulus needs to pick up. matt: piers hillier, you stay with us. we have a lot more to go through. right now, i want to get to the withberg is this flash sebastian salek. sebastian: in the u.k., london's fire commissioner has said there
3:22 am
have been fatalities after a blaze engulfed the grenfell tower in london. around 1:00 a.m. u.k. time, the fire at grenfell tower in kensington, about 200 firefighters attended the scene as fire shot from windows. smoke could be seen for miles. ceo takingg from its a leave of absence is hit with the resignation with the removal of bondman from its board. -- bonderman from the board. it will be ran by a management committee as it navigates a wave of scandal. quarterly earnings rose at a fast pace in almost two years. operating profit gained 18% in the three months through april. that is online sales bolstered growth of zahra. ends a 27 year run
3:23 am
as an independent company for the paris in part. it struggled to match the popularity of its u.s. counterpart and had to be bailed out at least three times. disney holds 97% of euro disney after an offer for the european units last year. that is your bloomberg business flash, guy? matt: thanks very much. german finance minister wolfgang schaeuble told us in an exclusive interview that an economic disaster with threaten the euro era -- area if financial risks were shared without joint policymaking tools in place. angela merkel's government has been wary of measures like , since sovereign debt greece and 2710 -- greece in 2010. wolfgang: i can only see risk.
3:24 am
, -- an economic lesson you must never forget. matt: piers hillier cio at royal london asset management is with us. it is understandable that germans don't want to share risk without taking part in decision-making. i don't think anybody would want to do that. is that where we are headed with the eurozone? do we have to create these tools , it is just wolfgang schaeuble can't say it otherwise people think the germans want to take over? piers: you hit the nail on the head. they want to get individual nations to sort out their domestic problems. die and i were just talking about the issue in spain. popular problem has been resolved and bit i bit, the spanish banking market is tidying itself up.
3:25 am
the next piece we move onto after the election in italy is how we address these long-term problem solving banks and the italian space? bit by bit, we are checking down political risk in europe. indoes seem the ecb conjunction with the rest of europe, are trying to find a way to manage the problem overtime. in some ways, that is the best result for the germans because it doesn't look overtly political, but what they have achieved is better discipline in economy and the function of domestic markets without having provided a dictate from frankfurt. guy: the markets get to ahead of this story. this is the bund spread. it has tightened up a lot. five stars not doing as well as we thought and the election will probably be next year. political risk in italy, is it something we should worry about
3:26 am
or it is fading into the rearview? italians have had as many governments since the second point is to my this, it does seem to be a better understanding in rome of address this problem. there the last man standing in not tackling the financial problem. i suspect that is the next step and having draghi at the ecb, he would say we have to resolve this. the spanish have done it, the french have done it. even the germans with landis mitigated a lot of those issues. italians haven't grabbed it. has, but there is lots of popular kicking around that needs -- a lot of structural balance sheet issues. guy: piers hillier, cio federal london management. towill speak exclusively david lipton. he will join us from beijing.
3:27 am
that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:28 am
3:29 am
3:30 am
♪ matt: time to unwind. the fed is expected to raise rates, but will janet yellen provide any clues on trimming the $4.5 trillion balance sheet? plus, avoiding a hard landing as british business groups in for a soft brexit, we speak to ryanair's kenny jacobs. the imf says china is on a more sustainable path, but there is an urgency to accelerate reforms. we are joined by david lit in, live from beijing. plus, a number of fatalities have been reported following a fire in a more than 20 story high-rise in west london. we will keep you updated
3:31 am
throughout the morning. markets:o "bloomberg the european open." i am matt miller in berlin, with guy johnson in london. guy: let's talk about the markets this morning. this is the picture right now. not a clear sense of direction. the continental market better big. up the london market is underperforming a little. the pound has a better bid over the last half hour. it doesn't unwind by any stretch. the drop we saw a post election results coming through, but it is a slightly better bid. we need to talk about one of the main stories we are watching, what is happening with the imf update on china. details providing forward forecast and where its ease policy going. its go to beijing with tom mackenzie.
3:32 am
tom: yes, let me bring you david lipton, the deputy managing director of the imf. you are in china and have raised tor forecast for growth 6.7%. what was behind that decision? david: we have been seeing the performance of the chinese economy and it was fairly strong growth in the first quarter. we see strong growth in the rest of the world which is helping. we see the chinese government providing some support, both through fiscal policy and the wake -- way credit policy was being managed. this is the right forecast. we expect the economy to slow a little in the year, but we think 6.7% forecast is the right one. tom: he talked about the urgency for reform and there is consensus among some that we have slower growth in the second half and that is providing something of a window. if that is the case, how big is that window?
3:33 am
what is the timeframe policymakers here have? david: first, reforms are underway. see thoseike to reforms intensified, accelerated and sustained. that means the rebalancing of the economy to new technology sectors, to support the household sector, household services, services households will want. tame thebegin to problems of credit growth that ine created vulnerabilities the corporate sector, especially the state-owned enterprise sector. where borrowing has been substantial. we think all of that should proceed in a steady way in order to reduce those on her abilities , in order to find new drivers for the economy over time. tom: you touched on the deck question, which comes to many minds when they look at the chinese economy. last year, you should -- said
3:34 am
there should be a plan for tackling corporate debt, otherwise there would be problems. are you seeing that plan put into action? what more needs to be done? david: right now, we see two issues. the financial sector has been growing in a number of institutions, lots of nonbank institutions, growing in complexity with new products and lots of interconnection. on that problem, authorities have really begun to intensify their scrutiny, tightening financial supervision of financial institutions. we think that is welcome and we will continue risk in the financial risk -- sector. also, the lending from the financial sector to corporations. it is important there be de leveraging. but itgrowth has slowed is still growing and the ratio of credits in the size of the economy is rising. that needs to be brought under control as well.
3:35 am
the destination of credit has to change so you don't have a situation where the company is getting the credit and not using the money for productive purposes. in the end, they are destined to have problems servicing their debts. tom: you talked about the trade barriers put in place in china. particularly on the services sector and there could be more action there. in your two weeks of discussions with policymakers here, what have you heard with them -- from them on the market, sectors they might be focusing on to allow more foreign investment? david: they are looking at ways in which they can interact with the united states. they are having a dialogue with the united states, the so-called to day review, to find ways have better interactions with the u.s. economy and better relations with the u.s. government. they are looking at the domestic process of rebalancing from old,
3:36 am
more outmoded growth drivers to new and more promising growth drivers and that will include opening up the service sector and trying to promote a sector that can be supported by household income growth over a sustained period. david: let me ask you about the currency, because they have tonged to the formulation include this countercyclical factor and many see this as the stronger arm of the state, more control of the currency. that is a step back from the internationalization of the renminbi. is that a concern you share? discussion ona this and we understand their motivation to always be careful to have some measure of control to avoid undesirable overshooting of the exchange rate. time,eference is over
3:37 am
they moved to greater exchange rate flexibility with the aim of ultimately having a floating exchange rate system. we believe they want to go in havedirection, and they designed this mechanism in a way that preserves their ability to continue to introduce greater flexibility over time. tom: let me switch focus to greece. euro group meeting happening tomorrow. how close are we to a compromise on greece? -- we we come into these would be risk -- observers, as we always are. we come into this discussion with the same assessment we have had for a long time. , greece's program, has to stand on the two legs of suitable policies that would sustain the greek economy, but also suitable finances. in this case, a suitable debt operation that will make greece's future sustainable.
3:38 am
that ak on the first, lot of progress has been made. in our discussions, other european institutions discussions with greece, with the steps greece has taken, including passing legislation, what is left to be discussed is the debt subject and we hope progress can be made on that in the euro group. principle fromn the imf is on the cards? david: we are open to all kinds of approaches, but yes, we have offered that one way through this would be to use a technique that was reasonably commonly used in the days where indebtedness the banks, the so-called approval and principle rule which was used in latin american debt crisis, i would allow us to approve the program in principle and begin in earnest once the question of debt had been settled. weid: how concerned should be about the u.k. economy given the uncertainty there around the
3:39 am
election and brexit? it is for the u.k. and europe to make clear the path forward on brexit. there will have to be discussions on that in the wake of the election and whatever changes there are within government. we certainly understand that this will be a period of uncertainty until the politics are clarified and the way forward is clear. but we think that the u.k. economy can continue to do well, and we certainly hope that the brexit discussion can proceed in a systematic way. tom: david lipton, thank you very much. at themanaging director imf, talking to us in beijing. having raised the forecast of china's gdp to 6.7%. thank you, tom mackenzie
3:40 am
talking to david lipton in beijing. today is donald trump's 71st birthday and we thought we would highlight a function for you. tweets allows you to see anything donald trump tweets. this is his twitter page, i guess if you tell twitter your birthday and pull up that person's page, you get some balloons flying up. case, trump tweets on your bloomberg will allow you to trumptweets guy: happy birthday, mr. president. customer, a bloomberg you can use this function. tv allows you to see video stream, there is mr. lipton talking to tom mackenzie. you can also use the sidebar which allows you to access the functionality we talk about, and pull up the fantastic charts we
3:41 am
have made. ,ou can use this little button asked the guest a question. matt and iays ib directly, but you can also ib our guests. talking about which, we will speak king to ryanair's kenny jacobs. what does ryanair think about what is happening in the u.k.? what does ryanair think about some of the i.t. issues being faced by competitors? we will talk all those issues with kenny up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:42 am
3:43 am
3:44 am
♪ welcome back to "bloomberg markets: the european markets are i am matt miller in berlin. we are seeing indexes rise. stocks are in green. let's go to nejra cehic. one stock that is up, hit a record high, is hexagon. it was rising the most since 2009, currently since 2011. this is after there were some reports that it was in talks for and hexagon has responded saying it regularly looks at ways to increase shareholder value. this after a report is -- it has held talks to sell itself. those talks in an early stage and may not be to a deal.
3:45 am
the response fairly vanilla, but still seeing gains in shares today. inditex on the downside. inditex had its fastest earnings growth in almost two years, but not operating profit number fell a little short of analyst estimates so we are seeing a bit of a negative reaction in stock price. we were down -- we are down .2%. analysts tend to have high expectations, so we're seeing that reaction. finally, easyjet upgraded to neutral from underperform. that seems to be why it is gaining, up about 1.9%. matt: all right, thank you. now to the first word news with sebastian salek. sebastian: in the u k, london's fire commissioner has said there is a number of fatalities after a blaze engulfed a tower block in west london. the ambulance service said more than 50 people have been taken to hospital.
3:46 am
fire started around 1:00 a.m. you came time. grenfell tower was attended by 200 firefighters. in the u.s., the federal open market committee is expected to announce an interest rate increase today at the conclusion of its meeting. it will also acknowledge recent inflation decline while sticking to previous guidance for another hike before the end of this year and the first step to unwinding the $4.5 trillion balance sheet. we will bring you coverage of that decision from 6:00 p.m. u.k. time. uber -- bloomberg customers can also follow on tliv . in the u.k., theresa may is under pressure to abandon her planned for a hard brexit. that comes as she stitches together a deal with northern ireland's democratic unionist power -- party. germanschoed the wolfgang schaeuble saying it wouldn't be too late for the u.k. to stay in the eu.
3:47 am
the u.s. attorney general has denied any suggestion he colluded with russia to interfere with last year's presidential election. jeff specialist -- jeff sessions was speaking in of the senate intelligence committee. to suggest i participated in any collusion, but i was aware of any collusion with the russian government hurt this country, which i have served or toonor for 35 years, undermine the integrity of our democratic process, is an appalling and detestable lie. related, there is the assertion that i did not answer senator franken's question honestly at my confirmation hearing. colleagues, that is false. sebastian: jeffrey gundlach has said the establishment in washington is trying to run out the time on donald trump's administration.
3:48 am
he spoke during televised senate testimonies by attorney general jeff sessions. he called the political conflicts a sideshow or entertainment. being used to obstruct the president's agenda. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. guy: think you very much. theresa may is under pressure to abandon her plan for a hard brexit. has broke cover to suggest he stay in the eu as she tries to broker a deal with the democratic unionists. lots of questions, let's start with the straightforward one. irish business. what is the view in ireland, the business community, inside ryanair about how the situation changed, if at all, last week?
3:49 am
>> it has changed and quite quickly. we have gone from a hard brexit, focusing on immigration in the narrative being a softer brexit that focuses on the economy. that is a good thing. people in ireland, in business would support. people in the u.k. nearly a year after the referendum, cap clearly prefer a soft brexit than a harder brexit. that is the result of this outcome and probably if you rebranded referendum today, you may get a remain vote. people are thinking twice, they are thinking, i want to protect the economy, jobs. is this is saying to politicians, you ignored us, you should listen to business and put the economy and jobs at the center of a softer brexit rather than a hard brexit, which was about immigration. ?uy: is there a few on the dup is it seen as an issue down the
3:50 am
road or do you think ireland is comfortable with the arrangement? kenny: if you have an unstable government and this is a week coalition, that is not a good thing. , strong certainty government. from an irish view, you look at the dup wanting a soft border, that is good. they also want a softer brexit. ireland, i think time has moved on and we want certainty, stable government and a version of softer brexit. airlinerexit from an point of view doesn't karen t the continuation of open skies. by theies is governed european court of justice and that is the biggest issue we are calling on the new government to say, give us a solution to open skies. we want to do business and do the way we operate today.
3:51 am
absolutely start the talks next monday and put connectivity between the u.k. and europe at the top of that agenda so we get an cash a solution to open skies. ideally this part of christmas or in the new year. it seems to be, we will downgraded the u.k. in terms of investment operation -- opportunity in terms of where we put our money and aircraft, and people. is it quick to reverse? say the u.k. adopted and easier stance when it comes to brexit. how quickly would you turn back to reinvesting in the u.k. were that to happen? kenny: last year we grew at over 15% in the u k, this year 6% because of the uncertainty. we could reverse that. our assets, error aircraft are putting movable. if we see the continuation of open skies, you can expect we would in a position to want to
3:52 am
continue to grow, which is what we want to do in the u.k.. you see us and other airlines respond in that way. kenny, i wonder if there is any talk among corporate leaders that there may not be a brexit. is there any possibility for no brexit or reversal? think there is some possibility. it is clear europe is extending to say, branch of sorts if you change her mind's we will go back to where we were. i think it is unlikely. what is most likely is that version of soft brexit, which puts the economy and jobs at its center and not immigration. i think it is to what type of soft brexit we are looking at? matt: are you actively lobbying for that? maybe together with other business leaders, telling people in government we want to have a softer brexit? kenny: we have been very vocal about this and it is not just
3:53 am
about a soft brexit. we want open skies. -- softhave a brexit brexit the not open skies. we will continue to push the government to hurry up, you even have the french saying to the british government, can we please get going? it is rare when you're being up by the french. we will push for the continuation of open skies and that new bilateral agreement is found as part of the softer brexit. we will push london, brussels, to get a solution that works for the industry. guy: let's talk about ryanair. this is a an hour -- this is a long-term view of your stock. this is where can he joins, that white arrow. post your arrival, being nice to customer certainly works, expectations are pretty high. too high? -- thewhat you have
3:54 am
wider narrative is the same. low cost airlines are winning. everything about ryanair, from res, thate lowest fa is what is winning. whatever happens with exit, that will continue. we have changed more than any airline in the world in the past number of years, in terms of how we improved product for customers and embraced digital. investors see the focused on cost, ryanair knows what it does and does it well. moving people from place to place with reliability. you can see carriers struggle and even this winter, error italian is in its usually mess. opportunities in europe. we will continue growing and returning to shareholders. matt: how much do you gain when
3:55 am
a competitor like british airlines makes such a huge disastrous error with its i.t.? it was happening, yes we had a surge in late bookings in customers wanting to get away with another airline. over the longer term, british airways is a great brand and like the incident at united, they will recover from this. across our i.t. spread three centers in europe. i am comfortable the same thing won't happen to us. while it is damaging to their brand, they will get back to you -- business as usual. at the same time, if we get customers switching to ryanair, that is a great thing for our business. quickly, a new longer version of the 100, do you think you will like it? kenny: i saw that from reuters
3:56 am
and that is pure speculation in advance of the paris air show. we're always talking about boeing, we like the max 200 a lot. that is why we have 216 of them in order till 2020. take all of the options we have on the next 200 but keep an open mind in terms of what is the next version we would be interesting in? the important thing is we see great demand in europe. we will look at alternative aircraft from all manufacturers. what is the most interesting one for ryanair to continue growing? guy: we look forward to the airshow. along some interesting lines, interesting to see easyjet taking their version of the neo-today. kenny jacobs, chief officer ryanair. he will join us on bloomberg radio and carry on the conversation. i want to leave you with a live shot of west london.
3:57 am
huge fire at grenfell tower in london. a number of fatalities overnight . we understand at least 50 have been taken to hospital as a result of what we have seen. this is bloomberg. ♪
3:58 am
3:59 am
4:00 am
francine: strong pressure for a soft brexit. theresa may faces calls to switch of her stance on leaving the eu. the european leaders they does not too late for the u.k. to change his mind. we look ahead to this evening's rate decision. growth raises its estimate for china for the second time this year, but says deep reforms are still needed. a london fire chief confirms a number of fatalities. we have the latest.


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on