tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg June 28, 2017 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
this is the european close on bloomberg markets. ♪ top stories from the bloomberg, a wild ride or the , spikes backgames after the ecb suggests mario misread the words by mario not be sounding a more hawkish tone. prime minister theresa may in the u.k. facing her first major vote under her government formed with the help of the dep. the french president pushes for major changes to reform the france labor market. in banking, u.s. banks in focus as a result of round two of the stress test, how much will banks be hiking dividends? deutsche bank facing a major
loss on son -- on some sour derivatives. trading, 30ities minutes away from the finish of the wednesday session, what a session, down slightly for the fifth day in seven. much lower earlier. this is sterling, biggest again upoh -- gain since april 18, 1%, highest since june. mark carney saying the bank of england monetary policy committee may need to begin raising interest rates soon. these are sovereign bonds, commodities. a lot to talk about, returning to the u.k., house price data from nationwide, crisis rebounded in june, halting the worst streak for markets and eight years with values of 1.1% from the previous month, the most since april of 2015, annual
rates of change to 3.1% with the average gone last month 211,000 pounds and change, the increase following three months of falling prices, the longest stretch since 2009 when the economy was in a deep recession. love that chart. french consumer confidence surging to its highest level in a decade. first month in office, sentiment rising for 108, the best reading since june 2007 when nicolas sarkozy was just beginning his five-year term as president. consumers reporting improvements and personal finances and ability to save, and ready to make significant purchases. the comment -- nestle, its first ,oncession to activate investor a $21 billion share buyback plan
to boost the share price, shares up 1% two days after he announced he stake in nestle, they announced the repurchase plan. to investor is asking them increase leverage two times to produce enormous capacity or share buybacks, this will boost its leverage to 1.5 times. what is a looking like? julie: a check on oil, even though both the person you spoke to, one of our chief energy correspondent, he says there was not much for bulls or bears in the report but the market does not see it as they bid up oil, barrel even$44.79 a know a drawdown in gasoline and distal inventories but gasoline demand fell last week in oil imports in the u.s. rose about 8
million barrels per day, not giving much sign that the opec production cuts have been making progress. energy trading continues to move higher. as for stocks, they move higher. shares bounced off a low of the day. the nasdaq leading and before it afterghting, went as low a slight drop but bouncing 9/10 of 1% and the dow and s&p higher with financials leading the gains in the s&p 500 as yields move higher. the nasdaq, here is the nasdaq with its intraday trading, the purple day is the 50 day moving average. i want to give you a better look at what we are seeing in the today session and yesterday. the nasdaq today as low as around 6145, 6143 is the moving
that yesterdayto and bouncing off of the trendline or momentum line. interesting phenomenon. in terms of the big movers we are watching within the nasdaq, some familiar large caps are outperforming today, particularly nvidia bouncing back to present an apple and amazon. up.pple and amazon expedia was raised to buy at citigroup. and analyst says there are a number of factors including -- including easing comparables. we are getting commentary on sayingvisor, an analyst the european commission ruling on google shopping could be applied to the travel vertical in the future and the positive for some of those companies. mark: let's get back to the european markets with lots of action in the currencies as we hear from the ecb forum and
portugal. after theebounding ecb said the market misjudged president draghi's speech while the pound is rising. mark carney says removal of some monetary stimulus is likely to become necessary. joining us is our reporter paul gordon. alessandra is with us. why is the ecb said to be unhappy about the market reaction to mario draghi's speech yesterday? >> the euro and markets have reacted strongly to the speech yesterday. the euro appreciated and bond yields went up, all this risks danger what they are doing, the message control, saying draghi is not signaling imminent taping, stating slowly
the euro economy is improving and approaching the moment where it will have to remove stimulus. nothing more. need to highlights the be accepted -- careful as the ecb calibrates its policy in the coming months and years? >> incredibly careful. one central banker has been here before, the fed in 2013 initially caused a taper tantrum, several months of intense internal and external public debate over to what tapering could be and when it should start before it came out and made the decision. the ecb has not gone down that road and they did not discuss tapering. no discussions of that since. there has not been much of a theme until yesterday from mario draghi where he brought up the subject. the markets reacted.
vonnie: mario draghi does not make mistakes. not to be a conspiracy theorists, i wonder if it was thrown in to test the market. moving on, the euro is trading at 1.1365. is the ecb happy with that level? it does not have a currency policy, not a target exchange rate but you would imagine this is getting towards the levels where it may be nervous, 11. -- 1.14. mario draghi has done this before, put in trial balloons into speech and -- beaches, done it in jackson hole, it is is what he isthat doing and put language in his speech which he thinks he can bring up again at a future date. vonnie: exactly, we are on the same page.
market, thehe bond way it is now? when we get more details on toxit, we have another year hear what the terms will be with trade. will there be major shifts and bond markets, rate markets, and fx markets when we know more? >> the main point is that the euro economy is doing well. growth is relatively strong. for european levels, it is quite strong. it is improving and broadening to the countries of the euro area, even weaker ones like italy. this is something the ecb has to take into account and bond markets are taking into account. inflation is interesting. a sign that inflation will pick up to the ecb target which is just below 2%. for this reason, the ecb we can expect will be patient and very careful and removing stimulus
which is something that bond markets will look at. mark: i want to come back to you. it was just about draghi but now about mark carney and happening where you are. mark carney saying the bank of england may need to begin raising rates. a week ago he suggested he was not in that camp. is he flip-flopping? turning into the unreliable boyfriend? >> i do not know i would go quite that far, although he has a history, maybe one reason he needs to be careful. he was in the majority that voted to keep interest rates unchanged this month. 5-3. saying had policymakers they are close to calling for rate hikes. mark carney said the time is not yet there. his comments now, today, suggests that august 3 will be a tricky meeting.
i am not sure you will rate hike at that point but close with a trade-off as he says between tolerating higher inflation to supporting growth, which has been faltering, may not be worth it anymore. friday, are looking to a big day for data, the inflation report from the eurozone. , which ishat figure expected to show a diminished level of inflation, how will that play into the ecb narrative? >> if, as it seems, the decline will be driven by energy prices and there is more of that in the future given the oil price and the recent weeks, what mario draghi signaled yesterday is that the ecb is ready to look for that. it is a very delicate balance, and the euro area, deflation is low and the economy is fragile. for this reason, the ecb wants to make sure the new fall in oil
prices does not get mixed in with the rest of the economy and consumer confidence becoming ready and expecting lower and lower inflation, which is what the ecb does not want. no panic but close looking at where deflation will be. thank you gentlemen. vonnie: let's check in on the first word news with courtney donohoe. havecrosoft analysts traced the global cyber attack to a ukrainian accounting software producer. ukrainian police say the update unwittingly contained a virus which fact europe and reaching asia, people are asked to pay $300 in crypto currency to unlock each encrypted computer. theresa may told parliament she will not accept an unlimited traditional pain as the u.k. leaves the -- european union, brexit terms have caused a rift
in the conservative party with a chancellor philip hammond trying to softening the approach to be split. the stage is set for a furious few weeks of lobbying on the senate plan to replace obamacare. mitch mcconnell decided to delay a vote on the health-care legislation after it became clear that did not have enough votes to support it. opposition from conservatives and moderate republicans. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalist and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. mark: coming up on the european close come in politics, a tale of two governments, theresa may new government is challenged and the french president takes on the mother of all reforms, details next. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ vonnie: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am vonnie quinn. mark: i am mark barton. politics in the u.k., theresa may facing a first test of her minority government, the labor party leader challenging the tory austerity measure. joining us is our u.k. government reporter. this is a test of her leadership. this motion that jeremy corbyn is putting forward, will it be approved by a majority or rejected by a majority? >> this is the first test, the big boat is tomorrow, the boat on the entire legislative program which is will -- which is while -- which is maybe where we will see all the opposition
parties unite. that is what theresa may should be worried about. this is against austerity. caps thatlar, the public service sector workers have seen in pay and theresa may anticipated that by signaling she may be willing to reconsider that. this is expected to pass. she has done the work to make sure it has. vonnie: her next test, nicola sturgeon will purse -- push for a second independent referent -- reform -- referendum. nicola sturgeon has actually delayed the calls for an independence referendum. it was a minor victory for theresa may. the big test tomorrow will be the vote on the queen's speech because she has a very fragile majority, if you can call that a majority with the alliance with the dup.
with that alliance, only a majority of 13, so you need very few rebels and her party for that to grumble. tomorrow is the vote we will look at to see if the government can't survive. mark: -- can survive. mark: the suppose it risked between members of her cabinet -- rift between members of her cabinet, has she managed to draw a line under the issue? all about the transitional phase , by saying she will not accept an unlimited transitional phase, has she drawn a line under this and are tensions and disagreements going to continue? >> tensions will continue. theresa may is no longer calling the shots. themdea of a rift between has been slightly overblown. have beend davis
getting along for some time and hammond is positioning himself as the negotiator, trying to get all of his party singing from the same sheet on brexit and his vision is not as hard a brexit as we saw theresa may put forward before her recent catastrophic election results. at the moment, it is in the hands of the eu. we will have to see -- already we saw with the issue of citizens rights, how unwilling the eu will be to give the u.k. any concessions, they know that they hold all the cards and the u.k. holds none. mark: great to hear from you, our u.k. government reporter. president taking a major step towards loosening the countries labor market, asking parliament to make it easier for companies to fire employees and negotiate their own deals with employees, rather
than rely on industrywide contracts. for more on the mother of all reforms, we are joined by caroline in paris. what are the key portions of these reforms? >> macron is trying to go further than any labor reforms that have been done in the past. he wants to lower the cost of hiring and lower the cost of firing and make it simpler. 3000 pages of labor code in france and he wants to help companies to hire but lowering social contributions. he wants companies to make it easier to negotiate as -- at the company level, rather than having everything centralized by unions and industry agreements. makes ithe wants to less stressful to fire someone
with severance pay in case of unfair dismissals. vonnie: he had the majority of french palminteri's, -- parliamentarians, does that mean he can do things that have consistently failed over the years? >> he is trying to change the method. he wants to see debates in parliament and bypass these extensive debate and parliament and today the cap netmeeting -- cabinet meeting will use executive actions to bypass the debates and parliament but you have the unions that will start the discussions as in the next few days. the second largest union has already called for a general strike on september 12. the government wants to pass the first agreed by september 21. -- decree by september 21.
donald trump is heading to paris, are we expecting of a repeat of le hand shake? macron isossible trying to, by inviting donald trump, showing that he controls the visit. this will be his first visit to was electedmacron but they met before in nato, handshake.he you remember when the french president called for u.s. scientists to move to france after donald trump withdrew from the paris climate agreement. on wants to show that he placed on the same field as donald trump.
vonnie: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am vonnie quinn. mark: i am mark barton. time for the bloomberg business fals -- flash. samsung will expand operations in the u.s. by building a factory in south carolina. it will make washing machines. they will invest $380 million and create 950 full-time jobs. t. rowe price increasing it's actively managed funds, despite the shift towards passive funds.
they plan to expand distribution outside the u.s., creating multi-asset funds and boosting technology. beatentock funds have 75% of peers in the last decade. 1200 jobs cut in the u.s. -- u.k. with rising cost pressures higher minimumof wage levels and the weaker pound. workforce its global by 15% in the last fiscal year. take a look at where european equities are trading. four minutes away from the finish of the wednesday session with stocks lower for the fifth day in seven. this is bloomberg. ♪
as 1% and up as much as -- touch and go whether it will fall for the fifth day in seven. banks among the gaming industry groups. so much to tell you about we do not know where to start. in portugal and said the bank of england monetary policy committee may meet to begin raising interest rates. , upintraday sterling move by 8/10 of 1% and was up 1% earlier with the biggest gain since april and highest since june, a tenths of 1%. novembertretch since , a shift in emphasis from the governor who one week ago signaled that now was not the time to start the tightening process, he clarified today that that position was the position of when the mtc met on june 15, lifting rates today hinges on whether fair capacity in the economy and the balance between supporting growth and tolerating faster inflation becomes less stark. the move in starling, we thought
today was all about mario draghi. this is the two-year chart for the 10 year yield. in the last two days, yesterday because of mario draghi's comments and today because of carney's comments we moved up 13 basis points and carney says the bank of england may need to raise rates. the excitement does not in because mark carney spoke yesterday. the market in turn putting his comments as hawkish, sending the euro of 1.4% against the dollar, the biggest gain since june of last year. today, things changed because we spoke to euro system officials who said the market is misjudging mario draghi's speech and said it was intended to strike a balance between recognizing the currency blocks economic strength and warning that monetary support is still needed. today, were we are
have broken through the post trump election 1.113 level. .17 is where we were in august of 2015. those are the key levels. what are the -- vonnie: because of the euro move, a weaker dollar index, 96.19, not because of the yen which is weakening. the two can spread widening, the 86 basis points which is not that wide but much wider than before.similar things in the commodity currencies , a rally today i'll be back of oil, reversing losses. japan nikkei down a half percent. let's get to abigail doolittle who looks at tech stocks rebounding today. some overlooked stories. this week,ory
yesterday we had the nasdaq finished 1.6% but lost in the news out of washington, d.c. that news out of washington, the senate has postponed the health 4re bill vote until the july took stocks lower. a three-day chart at the nasdaq, down monday and yesterday, that lower after the post moment of the vote. a bit of the rebound today. not clear what was behind the selloff, i talked to wall street people who said they are not certain, perhaps just anxiety and uncertainty. that is taking a cold -- that is taking a toll, down 2% from the record high. the hind the weakness, yesterday, overall a pullback, apple, microsoft, facebook, alphabet, today a rebound. i heard moments ago this is where the growth is at a
reasonable price syllables have to go here. out of that down a third day in a row after the $2.7 billion fine from the eu. alphabet down a third day in a row after $2.7 billion fine from the eu. the last record was in 1986, 150 six days and now on 161 days, not as though a 5% drop on day one to the seven, this may point to the idea that we will see weakness ahead for tech and the nasdaq. let's turn toe: the latest out of washington, d.c., republicans delaying the until july,bill -- does this reinforce doubt about the president ability to enact policy changes? let's bring in kevin cirilli in
washington, our chief washington correspondent. he has a key conservative lawmaker who perhaps can help answer that question. , a top memberdan of the house freedom caucus. is the holdup with health care going to hurt peoples -- your ability to get the other issues like tax reform? rep. jordan: i hope not, we want to get tax reform as quick as we can. that is what we call the american people. the holdup -- told the american people, you cannot get tax reform without reconciliation and cannot get that until you pass the budget. we will get health care. is goingss the senate to mirrors what took place in the house. they were going to have a vote but it got us postponed, they took a break, then they came back. kevin: the budget was postponed
impacthouse, that has an . rep. jordan: we are concerned about the idea that we will increase spending and not have offset, like the offsets to the level we think is appropriate and needed to deal with the $20 trillion debt. the idea that there will be a border adjustment tax. i do not think americans elected republicans to put a new tax on the american people and increase spending. that is our concern with this budget and that is where we are headed and once you pass the budget, you can move into the tax reform and set the spending levels. let's make sure we are not and actually not putting in a new tax on the american people. kevin: the house budget vote would raise funding levels for several things, including defense spending, something like
$150 billion in a tenure window and the border adjustment tax says will save $100 million over 10 years, from the house speakers perfective. -- perspective. you were talking about this weeks ago, what are new ideas? rep. jordan: we do not have the idea that somehow lending people -- that is not what conservatives believe so let's not live in a functional revenue neutral world which is a fancy way of saying the tax burden stays the same. what happens is under that scenario is the connected class in washington gets a good deal and the middle class families get a bad deal. let's not function in a revenue neutral world and put a new tax on the american economy on the american people. let's say the border adjustment tax is dead and move on. kevin: you want to get the house
freedom caucus proposal for your tax plan before august recess, will that happen? we arerdan: that -- working on that, let's let families keep more of their money. let's design a corporate business tax code that is conducive to producing economic growth, mainly lowering the corporate rate. kevin: paul ryan has disagreements with those principles, are you satisfied in the basements with the white house? rep. jordan: they are working on it and we encourage them to put their plan together as soon as possible. they understand the border adjustment taxes not the way to go. that is a good sign. when we get to the tax plan, there is no border adjustment tax in their, that is more incentive for us to be supportive of a budget if we are not increasing spending. kevin: some of your colleagues
on the freedom caucus have mentioned the infrastructure tax reform, dui agree with that? -- do you agree with that? rep. jordan: i am open but i do not think that is where we are headed. we want on the saving side, we understand you need to increase defense spending and some any discretionary spending but we want to offset mandatory spending and we think the focus should be on welfare reform, moving people from welfare to work is a good thing for everybody, a thing for the economy and the treasury. good thing for those stuck in the welfare system. we think marrying those together is good economic policy and that is what we want on the saving side and i do not want to see the border adjustment tax, we do not want happy budget before we know about the border adjustment tax. kevin: one of the issues with health care is opioid addiction funding. when you look at pennsylvania, ohio, do you think that the government has a role in funding iose types of entitlement --
do not want to call them entitlements but those kinds of programs. rep. jordan: we have moved down the road. everyone needs to get involved as this is a serious problem. all across the country, but certainly in our state and your state. will comeolutions from families, churches, communities, but federal involvement and we are ready have passed legislation, that is beneficial. that neede programs to happen to get these people off their addiction problems and away from their addictions and into a better position in life. kevin: congressman jim jordan, we appreciate you and i know you will come back when there is more from the house freedom caucus tax plan. a tax plan is coming.
back to you. vonnie: i will take your word for it. thank you to congressman jim jordan. tune in to bloomberg tv on july 4 at 8:00 p.m. eastern when alex deal and matt miller will cohost the boston pops fireworks spectacular live from boston's historic esplanade along the charles river. let's check in on the first word news. >> prosecutors in the u.k. have tried six people in the night and 89 hillsborough stadium disaster, fans were crushed to death and a police commander was charged who was in charge that they and the firm -- former chief of yorkshire police which led to stadiums across the u.k. being modernized. the investigation continues into the deadly london fire, theresa usedaid the outer covering on the tower was not compliant with building regulations. theeast 80 people died in iran jeremy corbyn said the fire exposed the disastrous effect of austerity. the president lawyers will postpone filing a complaint with
the justice department against former fbi director james comey, that is a bid to stop antagonizing special counsel investigating links between the president's campaign and russia. the president said to be furious about what he considered an eu legal leak by james comey to reporter. the president going to paris, the french president says mr. trump has accepted an invitation to attend this deal day celebrations on july 14 and american troops will march in a parade to mark the 100 anniversary of the u.s. entry into world war i. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalist and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. mark: one of europe's biggest bank has hit a wall, deutsche bank facing losses and derivatives turned sour, and what to expect from the federal reserve stress test. all the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ mark: live from london and new york, i am mark barton. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn. this is the european close. deutsche bank may have derivatives losses on u.s. inflation bets gone bad. the fed releases to u.s. press tests later today, more insight on these several issues. fineake this deutsche bank first, a big fine, a symbolic gesture? >> we have all of these rules that are supposed to restrain banks from taking risks but we come into issues where they do take risks and sometimes they go bad and sometimes they do not.
sometimes they make a lot of money and sometimes they lose money. trading is a risky business. they call it market making but it involves a lot of risk-taking . sometimes that goes bad. not huge numbers but shows the business is going as usual. vonnie: i said fine when i met lost. tryinghe chief executive to improve deutsche risk and executive controls which is a setback? >> it is, he has been trying and that is one of the biggest goals. as part of that, they raise capital, deutsche bank has raise capital levels and that went back to shareholders. the capital levels have caught up with its peers, it was lagging everybody. they have jacked up the buffers. when you make losses, those
always hurt. the numbers are not huge, not that big. that is the goal. vonnie: the results, stress test part two later today for 74 banks. about increasing dividends and paying out dividends. pass.rybody will when i wrote about them a couple of weeks ago for testing -- forecasting, the way they have eased requirements, the qualitative part, it looks at all of the profits -- whether they are doing risk management properly and have data management systems in place, that was subjective and kept catching banks and failing them for that reason. even though their capital levels were good enough to meet the losses in a crisis scenario.
that is the quantitative part of the stress test. the qualitative reduced to a dozen banks and the rest of the 34 not being part of it, you would think that nobody would fail but there is always, as we just talked about, deutsche bank, maybe those little things could say, maybe you are not looking at your controls and risk management properly, or wells fargo scandal last year with millions of accounts that were opened allegedly without authorization. trigger the can subjective part. mark: if everyone passes, does it lead to speculation that the tests are too easy? >> it could but at this point the u.s. test have become more credible. europe is still struggling with the tests and making them credible. in europe, unfortunately, almost every year, a few of the banks that pass, failed really, not
because but they failed as banks and were taken over or were merged or sold over the weekend, they go popular, the latest -- banco popular, in spain, they passed last year and had to be -- the creditors had losses when they were sold. the u.s. test has become credible. they are not easy. portion,qualitative they did not go harsh on the banks. they have started easing and europe started easing its regulations before the u.s. there is a trend towards easing a little, softening a little and the fed is going along with that. vonnie: you bring us the results as they come out later in the afternoon. thank you. we will keep those in our minds, reset 4:30 wall street time,
tune in for the results. mark: time for the bloomberg business flash, the biggest .tories in the news a surprising drop in pending home sales in the u.s., sign contracts by previously owned homes fell 8/10 of 1%, the third straight monthly drop. a which indicates the housing market is stalling with the likelihood covert, rising prices and a shortage of inventory. -- world's largest company fiscal third-quarter profit that beat estimates because u.s. pharma -- acquiring more soybeans, monsanto is in the midst of a possible takeover. nestle made his first concession to dan loeb, announcing a $21 billion share buyback plan to boost stock price.
vonnie: donald trump has been meeting with state and local energy leaders, comments on health care, he said health care will be so good and less expensive, and says the republican plan is a repeal and replace plan and the trump health care plan will be special, if we can get it done. he said we will at least get very close. charts, battle of the
what these mean for investors, access on the bloomberg by running the future on the bottom of your screen. starting off is emma chandra. >> this week in the u.s., the white house energy meeting, the president busy and one of the things he will focus on is u.s. energy dominance. making a big speech tomorrow where he will talk about how the u.s. is becoming on the brink of an exporter in oil and natural gas and talk about american innovation and efficiency. , you see what he is talking about, especially with respect to oil. oil rigs are rising this year but nowhere near the level they were in 2014. when oil was $100 a barrel. output is back to 2014 levels, even with fewer rigs, a broader
share of the energy market in the world. the u.s. on track to produce 10 million barrels of oil per day on average year, good news for president trump and not good news for opec. vonnie: we were just talking about that earlier on. >> very timely. vonnie: you cannot sway me. you have to give mark a chance. mark: the curse of june, it sounds like a horror film but history proves that june is not such a good month for european stocks. this june is proving no different. stocks the red bar, declining this month, heading for a one for that 1.6% drop, the biggest decline since june of 2016 which means that they will end four months of gains, but this is the knocked out stat, stocks have fallen in nine
out of the last 10 junes. the european benchmark has fallen by an average of 2.7%. what is interesting is that in may, every year since 2013, stocks have risen. the adage sell in may does not apply but the adage june curse does. vonnie: mark, 10 for presentation. was the most wonderful presentation but i am getting predictable on the idea of being on point of the news today, it is a tie between the transatlantic and british. ♪
♪ vonnie: from new york, here are the top stories. haggling at the senate, lawmakers work towards reaching a health care deal by friday, before congress goes on its fourth of july recess. appetite for blue apron, the company set to price assets after the close, it ipo range has been slashed. puerto rico versus its creditors , former new york governor george for jackie, and advisor -- george for tacky, and advisor, will be joining us. day,ay into the trading partially in the green. julie hyman is with us. more in the green than we were in