tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg June 30, 2017 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
vonnie quinn. this is the "bloomberg markets: " on the close bloomberg. top stories we are covering from the bloomberg and around the world, just 30 minutes to go until the end of trading in europe. stocks are rebounding in the u.s. following a tech heavy nasdaq. will we expect goodbyes in the second half of the year? what is next for global bonds? are we starting to see beginnings of the long-awaited bond selloff? president trump is meeting with south korean president moon at this hour, key subjects are trade and north korea. europeanok at my
equities trading about 30 minutes away from the end of the friday session. stocks are up today, down though for the week. longest losing run since june of last year. the month of june continues to be cursed if you are along the european stock it mark -- stock market. june has fallen 10 times in the last 11 years. the euro is down today, what a quarter it has been. sterling is a little lower after the boost it received in portugal when he said rates may need to rise. bond yields rising this week on -- back of a more hawkish this is a great chart throwing today.showing the data it is rising on a core basis, 1.1% -- 1.3%, both that are than
anticipated. g --raging for draghi, just below 2%. --doesn't tie into the narrative that draghi was parroting this week. market took it as a hawkish tone, this is the key data piece for the ecb looking ahead. this is the euro, best quarter for the euro since 2010. this is the quarterly move. best quarter since 2010. quarterly leap 7%. it closed on the highest level since may 4, 2016.
bullish, 120.st 103 prediction a couple of months ago, and forecasting 105 the fourthof quarter, this is a simple chart showing you the spread between the german and u.s. 10 year. look at how it is narrowing, what is that going to do to the euro? lie: something to ponder for the long holiday weekend. ,e are seeing stocks of back but only a little bit. we have industrials gaining at the moment, consumer discretionary led higher by nike at the moment. if you look at us stocks one would think could be moving on a big story having to do with the financial world, we are not necessarily seeing that much movement at the moment. i am talking about warren buffett's that on bank of america.
buffett is going to exercise his warrants and gain $12 billion as a result. as a good america raises its dividends, that could result in payouts for berkshire hathaway in addition to the $1.5 billion from the preferred stake. not much of change at the moment, but there was talk it was going to happen as bank of america was raising its dividends. two companies going in opposite directions today, wells fargo and -- it's a movement that continues and treasury. you can take a look at it here, the four sessions in particular is where we have seen the yields on rising up 14 basis points in that period of time. quite a run for treasury yields over the past few days.
however, yields on another kind of debt not looking so great. the puerto rican governor has asked the oversight board to file for bankruptcy protection for the ailing electric utility from puerto rico. the bond insurers are seeing losses today. the builders today, home builders rising. the companies are in a unique spot to capitalize tight home inventory. president trump making some comments on trade. trump is saying the u.s. cannot allow trade deficits to continue. he says he and south korean president moon have accomplished a lot on trade. mark: let's get back to utilities leaving the hide.
maris, us now george manager at janus capital management. george, thank you for joining us here it as you know, european equities down for the fourth consecutive week. is the european stock rally running out of steam? george: i don't think so. period ofu had a consolidation, but a lot of the tenants have resulted in a rise and european equities are still in place. we have a better clinical situation, something you haven't been able to talk about for the last five years, across the european union. european companies are more geared to that and cost structures are geared toward giving you better earnings. when the global economy improves, -- much more attractive. mark: how troubled should we be
by the back that europe is still a little bit behind when it comes to structural reforms? george: i think it is a long-term issue. if we are thinking about the near-term, all of the things i mentioned are truly beneficial. the ending of austerity, political reform, central banks are being accommodative. if europe is going to grow, you need relief from impediments, wait flexibility, capital employment, things like that. if those things get fixed, you if in france with macron, those get better, you could ces substantial long-term increase in european growth and european valuations and market returns. mark: something that has been vexing me this week, is the performance of european equities june, and 10nth of out of the last 11 junes,
european stocks have declined. what is it about june? george: i don't really know. if you think about the past the years there has been substantial political uncertainty, weather brexit or leading into brexit conversation. you have had greek political -- greek political issues, italian political issues, spanish political issues, those all seem to come around this time. but i don't have a better answer, that is an anomaly and not something to make decisions predicated upon. vonnie: we are going to listen to the president of the u.s. meeting. pres. trump: trade is what we are looking to do -- >> the trade imbalance has doubled since the -- treaty was put into effect and there wasn't
a single component of that -- automotive trade. -- trade barriers to -- anything above that needs to be on korean standards. that kind of role making upset quite a few industries and restricts the access of that u.s. companies have to the korean market. goods and -- there is no domestic market for goods and korea, everything they make is for export. a lot of that is chinese steel
coming back to the u.s. in oil fields. there are a lot of specific problems and i think the way to address it is to deal product byproduct with what we can do to change the export side and what we can do to reduce the bad influence aside. >> thank you very much. perhaps gary: could say a few words also about trade? you, mr. president. as you know, much of our biggest problem has to do with our economic relationship with china. we have maintained a very large trade deficit with china and it continues to grow. as wilbur said, china has many predatory practices in the way they deal with us in make actual property,
trade barriers for us, we are forced to transfer technology into china. we have terrorist and non-terrorist of barriers unable to own companies in china as well, and we are dealing with all of their policies. at some point we would be interested to hear in how you are dealing with chinese policies and how you can help us. pres. trump: thank you very much. tradeited states has deficits with many countries and we cannot allow that to continue. we'll start with south korea right now, but we cannot allow that to continue. this is a statement i make about all trade. for many years the united states has suffered through a massive trade deficit. that is why we have $20 trillion in debt. thatreciate very much
south korea is giving big orders to the united states as you know for military, they are buying many fighter jets from lockheed. they are buying other military equipment at a level they have never reached before, so that is good. i understand your also dealing with alaska on natural gas and other parts of the united states. we have a lot of natural gas and we love that you are going to do that here to things like that will bring down the deficit and we appreciate it very much. >> you've been listening to donald trump, he has been meeting with the south korean president today. and at that president is just about to speak there in south korea. ofre were a couple
statements president trump made that the u.s. cannot continue with trade deficits. they were talking about the amount south korea actually experts and president trump paying tribute to the south korea -- buying various exports from the united states. mark? mark: let's bring back george maris, janus capital management portfolio manager. thank you for clearing up the june anomaly before we went to the white house. talk to me about janet yellen, she said some asset prices have become rigged. to whata fair comment? extent does that apply to various equity markets right now? george: i think it is a fair comment, but let me so that a little bit. i think asset classes up ross the spectrum whether you think have real estate or what
you, our expenses are very expensive historically. i think the historic -- quantitative easing, negative rates, have a lot to do with that. equities still seemed intriguing because they are cheaper on a capital return perspective. you have a better return environment than you do in most any other asset last historically, secondly, you have the underpinnings of inflation around the world, you saw higher than anticipated print coming from around the world. you are starting to see wage pressure. equities are responsive to that. you're able to get that through returns. they are flexible enough to adjust to inflation. you don't get that with real estate and fixed income. you have a potentially worth
income is inflation picks up in those asset classes. on a relative perspective, equities are still pretty interesting. moreover, as we have level economy turning around across the board, china, greater europe, united states, japan, but thatmarkets -- underpinning is going to start being reflected in earnings growth. a lot of the high multiples you see a net we markets will start to earn their way as earnings growth into the multiples and they become strong assets. i think a lot of the parts of the market that have been left ,ehind, more cyclical parts will really come back and look much more intriguing. i think there is a real value in those areas as well. overall, things aren't cheap, but there are still significant pockets of value throughout.
equities still seem like an attractive place to market your capital. earlywe had a great stir . whatry earlier this week is behind those calls, what you like those two? let's start with bmp, the leading french bank. it has a great global capital markets business, strong capital position, they don't take a lot of risk. healthy,eserving is and they are set for good rebounding growth as well as around the world. the valuation implies that they are never going to grow again, and there will be value destruction. as i run the math, that doesn't make sense.
i think there is an extraordinarily attractive opportunity to own an extraordinary franchise. it is disk on it with the fundamentals that are implied. a business owned by the irish government having been ipo-ed a few years ago, they needed to raise capital, they really repaired the balance sheets and are dealing with bad loans issued during the irish financial crisis a few years back. the positive is ireland's economy has been going investors the last couple of years. the dublin property market, they have a substantial proportion of loans, has really been taking off. it will continue to take off, you are seeing continued activity and no signs of slowing down. the biggest issue in dublin is a
housing shortage, which is why pricing keeps going up. recoveriesrong loan and get it is valued as if it's book is worth half of what it is. vonnie: is through the banks the only way you are saying this rebound in some of the economies of the economies that went through the crisis and now pulling out, george, or are you looking at other ways to do it? real estate debt or other areas, i don't know -- the consumer sector? sectorsi am looking at that have been beaten up a little bit where we do think there is long-term growth. i think you want to avoid industries that can beat this intermediated -- can be dis- intermediated. there are so many that have been doing well and have been discarded by investors.
if you look at the financials, energy stocks still look intriguing. , but thevery volatile long-term picture is still good. demand growth is coming in and will start to overtake some of growth and you will get nice convexity in oil prices going forward. vonnie: is there anything that would sour you on europe, and let's include britain? george: we need to separate this. eurozone looks incrementally much better. i think the macron win was a telling when. there seems to be a real change in a row this year with respect -- in morale this year. a bit ofhe u.k. is in trouble, that is a market i am worried about. there are diverting trends there, there seems to be a slowing of the economy.
maybe it's a function of brexit, some of the companies that are starting to leave and move jobs elsewhere, there is clearly something happening in the u.k. indicative of a slowdown. may bee bank of england raising rates. raising rates as the economy is slowing down isn't particularly ideal. that is a market i've turned a bit more negative, even though our -- even though there are some great companies. market nearlye feels like it is starting to turn and crack a bit. me aboutk to technology, obviously, it has been much discussed. index, early june it hit its highest since 2002. sides ofpped on both
the atlantic as an industry, but you look at some that stand out such as a dutch equipment maker. what is behind that call? has tech had its day for now, or not? off withet me start the last question, has tech had its day? i think it's not surprising we are consolidating right now. if you look at the s&p tech index versus the s&p, it's more than doubled the returns. a lot of the stocks are up 30%-plus. they are substantial results. last year the stocks were strong performers, but it's not surprising there is a consolidation. also given that you're seeing so much money being put into passive products that are naturally going to buy the larger products, you are getting that technical pressure continuing to build up.
i think you have a lot of more fundamentally valued investors saying what on a second, some of the map is getting a little tougher. let's take a paul and a breather, that is a bit of what is happening and something i am sympathetic towards. is a truee time there long-term growth and some of the spaces, they are dis- intermediating the way they are doing business. that is turning me to asml. they make very expensive machines. you can get on a chip, the more beneficial it is to everybody. where asml is, is they are literally a decade ahead of competitors. manufacture ato
a smaller -- they will have a virtual monopoly versus peers. and everyone one of their customers will need to go and gravitate towards -- as well as the burgeoning needs in china for these machines as well. and it's the same price as a regular technology stocks. that is really intriguing. mark: thank you so much. we are awaiting a statement from u.s. president donald trump in the wake of his meeting with south korean president moon. he has said the trade deficits are not acceptable. we will you comments from the white house in a few minutes. this is bloomberg. ♪
european markets are trading at. down for the day, down for the week. down for the month, down for the quarter. off aors have come winning run of quarterly gains. this is the first quarterly decline -- stocks europe 600 down. it has been a week dominated by central bank talk and the likes draghi,president mark carney. a more hawkish tone from both those gentlemen. yields rising this week on the back of the hawkishness. the closers three and a half minutes away. this is bloomberg. ♪ [ noises inside can ]
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chemicals and banks down for the day, down for the week found for the quarter as well. longest slump since june. maristne june -- george calls it an anomaly. investors digest the winning run we have seen for stocks in recent quarters. this is a great chart showing volatility, how it has risen this month, the cost of hedging against european stocks, britain with the biggest monthly surgeon since january 2016. we note volatility has been a multiyear low. to 100.normalized stocks up by 20%. 1998.tart to a year since the yellow line is bonds and the blue line is commodities. down by 8%. week of central bankers.
month.traight slow rise means that inflation bba far cry from the oj's target. vonnie: we have the perfect person to talk to about this. he is focused on bonds. heard a flurry of hawkish comments from bankers this week. joining us is george cohen called -- george goncalves. you changed your call. right timing? >> i think so. markets are complacent around the idea that you see lower inflation. so far we have had low inflation , but the central banks are operating at a different tune. it is a concerted effort to turn more hawkish and we think they are realizing that they probably overstay their welcome in the bond market.
we think reducing liquidity, by doing so, grace should be having .igher vonnie: you see the vix is ever lower. if you look at the move in next -- sorry, move come index, gpo -- [laughter] vonnie: you see it aspect of a little bit. does that continue, too? george: i think so. investors have to take a step back. we are in the summer months, right? typical summer doldrums, this ebb and flow. we think of i'm should be having higher commence or with special volume should be any higher commencement with market -- volume should be heading higher commencement with market moves. there become complacent. mark: talk about your target for the 10-year. what takes us to 2.8?
2.6, we have not broken to that level convincingly since 2014. what could possibly take us to 2.8, then? look, i think we are heading in the right direction, and your points are well taken a number of key investors around the world have looking at -- have looked at 2.6 as a barrier that is hard to break through. you need physical resolve out of fiscal resolve out of washington. tax reform, as well as issuing more debt -- there will be a time we looked up at q4 and potentially the accommodation of r and the fed unleashing its balance sheets, which we think will start in september, october launch date -- all of abovethings good move us
260. mark: the move we have seen in german 10-year yields this week, looking at it on a weekly basis, quite sizable. historically nothing like we have seen in the past. is this start of a trend in european yields? .e are up to 0.47 elowere below point30 -- ble .30. george: we were losing some support from global central banks. not necessarily a bad thing. it's been economically driven for so many years, living to a more fundamental backdrop should not be that disruptive. if equity markets start to react to higher rates, a proper timing of financial conditions, at that point we will see the result of banks.
we have been a long levels for a very long time. vonnie: that is what people are saying, that there is a fundamental divergence between what the market is saying and the federal reserve. the fed is saying that the economy can take hikes. michiganiversity of five to 10-year inflation was below expectations. upped his forecast but still only at 4.9% or something. george: that is skepticism central banks -- why are they doing what they are doing in the first place? they had that and then some. there is asset inflation all throughout the system, and it seems to us that they are trying to drain some of the liquidity, and that will manifest itself in higher rates. you have to be careful you don't go too far that causes correction more broadly. ideae were dismissing the
that the fed is hiking rates. what is happening is bad for business. vonnie: it is not all about supply, though. it is the fact that there is no wage inflation, demand is lasting, slack in the labor force. george: that is why the jobs report will be critical. we think that looking beyond the actual headlines, average hourly earnings are taking a greater prominent role in driving the market direction. we think that average hourly earnings -- watch out, bond market, we will have a big selloff next week. mark: looking at the call, year on year, 1.4. it is down from the previous month. kilo estimates as well. are you comfortable -- below estimates as well. are you comfortable with the path of inflation? george: think inflation is not
the only driver. central banks are watching, as i just described, the liquidity in the system. maybe the market is missing something that the central banks are seeing, that there is plenty of inflation that will be released in the second half of next year. i think being skeptical and dismissive of central banks for so long is what bond markets have gotten used to. perhaps they've gotten this one wrong at this juncture. mark: i'm looking at just to see the probabilities. the probability of a rate hike in december is below 50%. how soon before the market is more aligned with the fed stops? george: i'm not sure we will ever get to that point. historically we have seen markets training underneath -- trading underneath. terminal rates should be closer to 2, and we will get there in the course of the next year or so. i do think that the bounce-she reduction -- balance-sheet
production is being underestimated. we will learn that the balance sheet actually does matter. vonnie: did you ever think you would talk about the term premium coming back with a vengeance at this level? george: at this time i thought we would have higher rates anyway. areie: well, yeah, we looking at a chart that i didn't build, but you are seeing a little pickup for the 30-year. how does the curve that shaped as this happens? george: the richest part of the belly.s the 30-year bonds will always find a bid from the investor base. vonnie: george goncalves, thank you. very in lending. nomuragoncalves head of strategy for fixed income. we are a winning a statement from president donald trump after his meeting with the president of south korea.
saying that deficits are not acceptable, at least to the u.s. we will bring you his comments in a few minutes. let's check in with first word news with courtney donohoe. courtney: in chicago, federal agents have joined with local police just stem the flow of illegal guns in the city. tweeted president trump that crime and killings in chicago had reached epic proportions so he is sending in federal help. britain's ability to strike price brexit trade deals that the u.k. nus will open negotiations on trade agreements. president trump has told prime minister theresa may that the u.s. will be able to keep trading on at least the same terms as it does now. president trump and vladimir putin will meet for the first time as heads of state in germany. relations between the 2 countries are at their lowest in decades. white house aides won't say if the president will bring up
allegations of russian meddling in the election. u.n. secretary general antonio guterres has joined high-level talks on the divided island of cyprus. one sticking point -- turkey has rejected calls by greece and greek cypriots remove its troops from the northern side of the island if cyprus is rina five. yet --is reunified. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. vonnie: courtney, thanks. once again, we are waiting statement from u.s. president donald trump following his meeting with south korean president. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: you are watching "bloomberg markets." awaiting a statement from president donald trump following his meeting with south korea's president, moon jae-in. we will bring you mr. trump's comments life. mark: we will, but we will turn away the game of football. football transfers open at midnight london time. they will have two months to attract the best players. it is one of europe's smallest economies and lesser-known the second profit most. cashgal has been able to in on homegrown talent the last few years. business and sports reporter tarik panja. why is football such a powerhouse? ariq: a confluence of events has made portugal this
destination that keeps churning out world-class footballers. you have the world's most famous player alongside cristiano ronaldo. that has an effect. you have the portuguese team winning the euros. you have a competition among three clubs that are magnets for all sorts of players across latin america. it off, you have the world's most powerful football agent, which is able to some of drive prices -- somehow drive prices, which he's as well, and he represents renaldo. -- portuguese as welcome and he --resents run all the ronaldo. not so simple, is it? they don't get all the money. tariq: that's right. you see the gross numbers. $160 million in the first four days of the u.k. transfer window
from players connected to portugal. the biggest one being edison, the goalkeeper going to manchester city. 40 million euross. -- getss 20 million to 20 million. the rest goes to third-party betters and related people. sometimes it is a black box, where all the money goes. mark: one might think, they've got all these great players -- some who are already great from some who will become great. why don't they hold onto them? sporting lisbon becomes giants of european football. tariq: good question. the reality is, money talks. it is not just how much they are willing to pay for the place, it is how much they are willing to pay in salary. portuguese cuts cannot read at all with english premier league -- vonnie: you guys can we have to turn off -- mark: go to you, vonnie.
vonnie: even though it is fascinating, we have to go straight to president donald trump. mr. president, let me be the first to congratulate you on your election. tremendous election victory. and also the people of south korea for providing such an incredible example of democracy for the world to see. it was very exciting, i must say, and congratulations. this morning, president moon and aid apresident pence l wreath at the korean war veterans memorial to commemorate the 67th anniversary of the korean war. .t is a beautiful ceremony we will never forget that americans and koreans bravely fought and died together for a free korea. to the corian and american
veterans of that war -- korean and american veterans of that war, great people can we are truly grateful for your service and for your sacrifice. more than six decades after our partnership was forged in the the alliance between the united states and south korea is a cornerstone of peace and security in a very, very dangerous part of the world. countries,tween our cemented in battle, is now also tied together by culture, commerce, and common values. are facing the threat of the reckless and brutal regime in north korea. nuclear and ballistic missile programs of that regime require a determined response. dictatorshipean
has no regard for the safety and security of its people, its neighbors, and has no respect for human life. that has been proven, over and over again. ownions of north korea's citizens have suffered and start starved to death. and the entire world just witnessed what the regime did to warmbier.ful otto i thank president moon for expressing his condolences on 's death.sty of otto our thoughts and our prayers remain with his wonderful family. the error of strategic patients with the north korean regime has failed. many years it has failed. and frankly, that patience is over.
we are working closely with south korea and japan as well as doctors around the world on a range of diplomatic -- partners around the world on a range of diplomatic, security, and economic measures to protect our own allies and citizens from this man is known as north korea . the united states calls on other regional powers and all responsible nations to join us in implementing sanctions and demanding that the north korean regime choose a better path and do it quickly, and a different future for its long-suffering people. our goal is peace, stability, and prosperity for the region. but the united states will defend itself always -- always will defend itself. always. and we will always defend our
allies. as part of that commitment, we are working together to ensure and supportsharing of the united states military presence in south korea. third and-sharing is a very -- burden-sharing is a very important factor, a factor that is becoming more and more prevalent in this administration. we are also working to create a fair and reciprocal economic relationship, from when the u.s.-korea trade deal was signed in 2011 to 2016 -- you know who signed it and you know who wanted it -- our trade deficit with south korea has increased by more than $11 billion. not exactly a great deal. i was gratified to learn about the new investment south korean committees are making in the united states -- companies are making in the united states. this month, the first shipment
of american liquefied natural gas to south korea in a deal worth more than $25 billion. it's great. we will do more to remove barriers service of -- to reciprocal trade and market access. we talked last night and today about tough trade issues like autos and steel. i'm encouraged by president moon's assurances that he will work to create a level playing field so that american workers and businesses, and especially automakers, can have a fair shake dealing with south korea. south korean companies sell cars in america. american companies should have that same exact privilege on a reciprocal basis. and i'm sure we will be able to work that out.
in addition, i have called on south korea to stop enabling the export of dumped steel. these would be important steps forward in our trading relationship, very important steps. they have to be made. not fair to the american worker if they are not, and they will be. our teams are going to get to work on these issues, and they are going to sign a deal that is great for south korea and great for the united states. mr. president, i am thrilled that you are here today, and deeply honored that you choose to go to the united states as your first foreign trip as president. i greatly enjoyed our dinner and the many productive discussions that we have already started having today. i look forward to working with you for many years to come to strengthen our alliance, protect
our citizens from common and deepen the enduring bonds of friendship between americans and the great people of south korea. thank you very much. president moon, thank you. [applause] vonnie: you have been listening to president donald trump. this is a speech at the white house with south korean president moon. trump talking about the common values of culture and also many other things. he also talked about north korea and how the strategy was failing of both the countries, u.s. and south korea. joining us from the white house is chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli. anything unanticipated in the speech? evin: nothing unanticipated, but the president taking direct aim at former president barack obama for the 2011 traded deal negotiated with south korea.
he alluded to the $13 billion trade deficit that began in 2011 when the deal was first negotiated. now, of course, last year alone the trade deficit exceeded $27.2 billion from just the last year alone. the president saying that they talked about auto deals and the steel industry, and of course, the big issue, national security, particularly as it pertains to north korea and its nuclear weapons program, trying to pressure the chinese to do something on it. you remember it was just yesterday that treasury secretary steven mnuchin announced they were going to be new sanctions on a chinese bank as a result of its ties with north korea. vonnie: kevin's really at the white house following that meeting. thank you for that. -- laurao include keller is joining us for the fourth of july-themed special chart, would you can always look up in your chart library.
take your chart day away. laura: we're celebrating and getting ready for american independence this weekend and we have key items you need for the picnic on the fourth of july. we will see how expensive your fourth is going to be committed g #btv 605. we have basically got this blue line, the avocado prices. -- will be happy to see excuse me, that is the white line, actually -- you will be happy to see the avocado in your guacamole will be less expensive than earlier this year. beer, the blue line, inching down as well. 2 wins for us. however, the red line, the beef prices, that will be sticky. from 2016 is desperate inching up, inching up, and you can blame week rain.
vonnie: i'm not sure what that means. does that mean we have to stick to avocado and beer this fourth of july? mark: it does. i will do that. vonnie: you will not even be celebrating! laura: in the spirit. vonnie: congratulations to laura keller for winning by default. tune in -- alix steel, carol massar, and matt miller will cohost the boston pops fireworks spectacular. that will be a lot of fun to tune in to. "real yield with jonathan ferro" coming up next. we will see you back here on monday. this is bloomberg. ♪
jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. yield.""bloomberg real ♪ coming up, central banks raining in risk. chair yellen says valuations look somewhat rich. mario draghi's word spark a bond can trumpet and sales of high-grade credit are on track to top the 2016 record. we begin with the big issue -- did investors misjudge draghi's speech? >>