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tv   Bloomberg Markets The Trump Economy  Bloomberg  June 30, 2017 1:00pm-2:01pm EDT

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david: the illinois budget impasse, the state races to reach a deal by midnight it if that's it's not happen, illinois would have no budget for the third straight fiscal year and instead could be rated as junk. the white house prepares a decision on steel tariffs sparking concerns again of a trade war. anna: welcome to the program. acta the big story this week, the senate health care bill. negotiations continue. there is still no deal as we approach the july 4 recess straight president donald trump tweeted, quote, if republican senators are unable to pass what they are working on now, they should immediately repeal and
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then replace at a later date. lawmakers will return to washington july 10 and they will have three weeks before their august recess to work on an agenda that includes tax reform and more. some are on the biggest stories this week, and there have been plenty of them. from a g20 some of the kicks off next week, let's welcome reporters. to -- let's come to you first on the health story. this is where we have spent a lot of our week, talking about this subject. president trump with this repealed and replace at a later date tweet, how is that gone on the hill? >> it's been a chaotic week on health care, major setbacks for senator mcconnell and republican leaders who hoped to get this done before the july 4 recess. they learned by tuesday they didn't have the vote. from -- theack
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members were unhappy with the process, the secrecy, and the speed of this, and more importantly, substance of disputes. the presidents' tweets this morning is not going down well because this was initially the strategy that republican leaders wanted. i spoke to one senior aide who mentioned the delay in repeal idea within a year, maybe two or three years down the road. get it out of the way. say they delivered on its promise, and move on to other agenda items. ended, whenckly president himself before he took office came on and said, i want it done simultaneously. they are a little too far gone now, it seems to reverse course with the house already having passed a bill that is repealed and replaced a number of components. it's hard to see how they go back. david: we learned a thing or two this week about twitter discipline. what is the white house saying about this reversal when it comes to health care reform? >> the white house is realizing
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they cannot control the president's twitter account. this was supposed to be energy week, the president talking about energy, also hoping to have a repeal bill moved through the senate. the senate has tweeted about a lot of different things, including this morning cost week, changing the strategy potentially on health care. remember yesterday he tweeted an attack on an msnbc television host which completely blue of the white house messaging. the press office is realizing that they cannot control the president's use of social media and its getting in the way of their agenda -- the agenda is getting in the way of their ability to push the agenda through. they are not on the same page about what to do about health care. it seems like the senate is taking the lead on this and the president is weighing in from time to time with twitter posts or a few statements here and there but that does not seem to be a coherent message from the white house on this. anna: to global investors, that's why all this matters. it acts as a distraction from the rest of the agenda they
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would like to see being dealt with, these tweets, i mean. >> that's exactly right. the president, the white house, i was listening to gary cohen a couple days ago, listening -- speaking to a number of energy officials and he was saying the white house wants to be able to focus on tax reform as soon as the middle of august, that's only a couple of months away and they can't get through health care. visit budget battle that is going through. it does seem these tweets are distracting from members of congress being able to get the agenda through and if they can't get the agenda through, they can't get the tax reform, they get get the infrastructure, and it will take longer for the president to get his agenda passed through congress. the tweets aren't helping, your hearing from republican members. david: after the fourth of july holiday i imagine you will be packing your bags for your trip to hamburg. we learned the president is going to be meeting with his russian counterpart. how large does that loom? >> i imagine it will be some of
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anymost scrutinized tape of president trump's meetings with foreign leaders, obviously the body language, there will be a lot of examination of the handshake, how from the handshake is, how much they show affection or warmth to each other. it's important to put this meeting in its context. it is one of about 10 meetings with foreign leaders the president trump will have. probably the most anticipated of his presidency so far. national security adviser, it said yesterday there was no set agenda for this meeting which is causing some concern amongst foreign policy pundits saying, you're not planning to bring up election meddling, all these other issues, syria, ukraine. whether this is going to be a substantive meeting or one where they just sort of exchange pleasantries is still unknown at this point. anna: we heard from some u.s.
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officials they weren't sure whether it was going to be addressed. on the subject of the g20, angela merkel not pretending that there aren't subjects that cause the transatlantic divide. she very clearly today saying that globalization is a win-win and she does not share trump's views. really the big point of concern. he's going overseas to europe again, going to be meeting a lot of leaders from the continent. the real question will be, where do you stand? he still has not convinced for leaders that he's on their side, that he believes in the transatlantic alliance straight he had a speech before nato where he refused in his speech to confirm the so-called article five commitment to mutual defense. now today we are getting reports that president trump impose huge steel tariffs on countries from around the world. this is going to be a major issue that he will be forced to confront there.
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obviously this is also his first trip to meeting a lot of for leaders after the withdrawal from the paris accord. also what you are seeing again is this issue of confusion between the president trump says and what his cabinet says. you have the defense secretary and secretary of state trying to offer assurances to foreign leaders. in the end, president trump is the president of the united states. leaders have to listen to him. david: let me ask you how quiet you expect congress to be over the next few days. members of the house of representatives going to meet with constituents. the relationship going to be like between them in washington as they meet with constituents and continue to work on this health care plan? >> members of the senate and house will be going home, all of next week congress is off. they will be meeting with her constituents. many groups on the left are planning rallies, whole range of persuadedesigned to
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republican senators not to support the health care bill. what senate republican leaders want to do is get to a deal as soon as possible. it next week, then vote as soon as they can once they get back. let me point out, the calendar after the fourth of july recess gets very tight very quickly. they have three working weeks before the august recess. those three weeks are critical for getting something done on health care. if they don't, once they get back, they are staring at a number of deadlines and they have to pass a bunch of hills quickly. they have to keep the government open, to extend the children's health insurance program. somewhere along the way they have to raise the debt limit. none of this stuff will be easy. apart from health care, they have to have a fiscal2018 budget resolution were they have to define what spending and tax levels they are hoping for the next fiscal year before they do anything on tax reform at all.
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anna: bring us up-to-date with what the white house is saying about steel. they have been talking about it with the south koreans. is a conversation broader yet? >> it seems to be an internal struggle in the white house. several members of the cabinet having discussions about what to do about steel. we heard the president saying the fact the united states has trade deficits with several countries including south korea, south korea including china, is something he's bothered by. he wants to take action. dear hearing several members of the cabinet are trying to dissuade the president from imposing large tariffs on steel imports, and the president is hearing from different sides of his administration, the more popular side, who was to take harsh actions against other countries and the more traditional or modern site who wants the president to hold back . they don't want a trade war.
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we are likely to hear more about it in the few weeks to come. david: thank you very much. our reporters joining us from our bureau in washington. bloomberg's julie hyman is here with the latest. julie: we have a rally on the last day of the second quarter as we are midyear. all three major averages don't think from some of the declines we saw yesterday, consumer discretionary and industrial shares helping lead the way. i want to take a look here as we are at midyear i global equities versus some of the other asset classes. stocks have been the big winners this year. this white line is the msci all world index, so globally the index of stocks. we seen a gain of 10% on the year, aggregate bonds of a little better than 5%. the bottom line here is commodities, which we've seen hold back this year.
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stocks have been in a very broad sense the place to be. i measured the consumer discretionary stocks, that is due in large part to nike after that company came out with earnings that beat estimates and the sales forecast ahead of estimates. it will be selling its shoes on its to graham. there is talk about that. under armour shares up as well. adidas rose in germany as well. one of the other things we're watching today, oil prices. while now up for seven straight sessions. judged thisrs have supply-demand picture looking at little bit better, oversupply is being worked down a little bit. we just got in the last few minutes weekly baker hughes oil rig count, rigs down two to 756 last week. that's notable because we have been seeing a rise in those rigs for 23 straight weeks straight the blue- down here,
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line here is that recounts which we have been seeing steadily rising, production in the u.s. has been steadily rising although we do see a blip downward last week, which is one of the things that has been propelling oil prices higher. but the bigger picture this week notwithstanding is not necessarily bullish for those oil prices. anna: coming up on the program, the cbo is warning the u.s. will run out of cash by october. what will lawmakers do about that? we will talk to members of the senate budget committee. this is bloomberg. ♪
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anna: this is "bloomberg markets , the trump economy."
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david: mark crumpton has first word news. said aresident trump change of tactics is necessary for dealing with north korea's new queer and ballistic missiles programs. he spoke today alongside the south korean president moon jae-in at the white house. pres. trump: the air of strategic patience with the north korean regime has failed. many years and it's failed. and frankly, that patience is over. mark: the president says the alliance between washington and seoul is an important one but the u.s. is renegotiating what has been what he calls a rough trade deal with south korea. the president was republican senators to pass something when it comes to their obamacare replacement bill. in a tweet this morning mr. trump wrote, if republican senators are unable to pass what they're working on now, they andld immediately repeal
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replace at a later date. republican leaders put off a vote on the health care bill because the measure doesn't have enough support. south african president jacob zuma acknowledges corruption and his country's ruling party but he is sharply criticizing opposition groups who want him to resign. speaking in johannesburg, he said the african national congress needs to cleanse itself of the quote, negative tendencies over the years. last week the president declared in parliament he was doing a good job leading the nation despite high unemployment and an economic recession. the united nations secretary-general says progress has been slow and high-level costs reunify the -- ethnically divided island of cyprus. >> all participants have declared they are here to find a
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solution. they have also demonstrated awareness, and the responsibility they share for a successful article. i call on the leaders and other participants in the conference to lead the call for peace for thousands of cypriots. split in 1974as when turkey invaded following a coup by supporters of the union with greece. turkey has since stationed more than 35,000 troops in the north. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. david? david: the congressional budget office issued a warning, the u.s. government will run out of cash by early to mid october. the cbo said the federal deficit will rise to $693 billion, the largest deficit in five years in a more sizable shortfall than many expected. few know the contours better
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than the senior adviser at the bipartisan policy center. great to see you. let me ask you about the x date, when we are up against the debt ceiling. does the cbo -- walk us through the methodology. what are you and they considering? >> when revenues which are coming in slower than we anticipated, when will it come that the extraordinary measures, this borrowing of government funds, when will that run out. scenariot a worst-case , what you would have a something like this. an inability to pass a budget for fy 18. you know that has to go into effect october 1. there's an $80 billion or so transfer mandated by law from the federal treasury. that's on october 2.
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you could have in the worst-case scenario, you could've had no and a done by october 1, dead extension necessary by october 2. as was pointed out earlier in the show, they are really going to be squeezed for time. anna: a good opportunity, if that debt extension is required, republican control in washington is no guarantee of success here. if they are looking for a bipartisan solution, how will they find that? >> it reminds me of the 2011 fiscal cliff. only get a bunch of negotiations. there is some chance given that president trump really just wants to get this out of the way and get a victory and avoid a very bad defeat. i think there's a possibility you will have to have a bipartisan agreement on some sort of budget deal. it could occur and i think it will well occur on the debt limit extension debate.
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in a way it's a bad thing that's happening. in another way it may force action as it did six years ago. it is an action forcing kind of mechanism. it could happen on the second. david: let me ask you about unanimity within the administration. you talk to the treasury of the secretary. he said something different than the office of management and budget, mick mulvaney. are we getting a clearer, more unified message from the trump administration? >> i think so, because i remember pretty clearly the president cited with -- sided with secretary mnuchin. i would love to be 30 years younger too. it's not going to happen.
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we ended up with the sequester thing that is still plaguing us. getting a clean debt bill will not happen. the question is, can it be negotiated. to get asan deal, budget, to get something on taxes if it's possible, and to get an extension for the debt limit. this is made more complicated by the fact that the president presented a balanced budget and said, i want a balanced budget in 10 years. the cbo pointed out to us what is likely to happen is we are going to add $10 trillion to the debt over the next 10 years. and that is a far cry from a dallas budget. anna: the cbo and white house seem to be on different numbers on a number of forecasts. steve bell, senior advisor at the policy center and former director of the senate budget committee. till ahead, we explore why illinois is on the verge of becoming america's first state with a junk credit rating. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: this is "bloomberg markets, cap economy." -- trump economy." anna: the clock is ticking for the state of illinois to pull together its first state budget in three years. bloomberg's chicago bureau chief elizabeth campbell wrote about this for bloomberg businessweek and she now joins us from chicago. the clock is ticking and it really is. re: going to see the budget produce them this time around? we haven't seen this since what, 2015? >> it's been two years and we are on the verge of entering without a budget. we have a record $15 billion of unpaid bills. plus worse, the state is still spending despite the impasse. we are on track to end the year today, more than $6 billion on -- in the red. it's about to get worse because snb has warned out of budget around july 1 they will
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downgrade illinois again. that will make us the first junk rated state on record. david: what does this look like on the ground? your having all these fiscal difficulties in the state of illinois. how is that playing out in everyone's day-to-day lives? >> the funny thing is most of the pain has been limited so far mostly to social service agencies, aid to homeless shelters, domestic violence shelters, people who need state aid, that has been slashed across the board. public universities are in trouble. they have expressed a trip of state aid since the start of this crisis. universities have had to lay off and furlough staff. in this past month, the higher learning commission which the state'sst of universities warned their accreditation is at risk because of the impasse. it's about to get worse if this impasse continues. anna: while the cost of debt goes higher. >> that's true.
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we haven't been in the black since 2001. the yields are the highest among the 22 states of bloomberg tracks, and spreads have only gotten higher amid the ongoing stalemate. elizabeth campbell is bloomberg's chicago bureau chief joining us from the windy city. read her story, the latest issue of bloomberg businessweek, that's available on newsstands now. up next, a new study on american manufacturing and factory jobs. automation makes cheap labor less crucial to producers. the study coming up from mckinsey on "bloomberg markets." this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> and>> it left 80 people dead. nicholas brown steps aside. he apologized and admitted things had gone wrong dealing with the aftermath of the fire. in the u.k., consumer confidence has not been this bad since the brexit vote. those surveyed were less confident about the economy and their personal climates. the military judge overseeing army sergeant bob burkle's case endangered comrades
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by walking off his post and afghanistan in 2009. the judge in raleigh, north carolina, rejected a defense motion. bergdahl also faces desertion charges, punishable by up to five years. former president barack obama arrived today at his childhood nick -- childhood home. it is the last day of a 10 day leg vacation. they went white water rafting. he was greeted by the president. it is known for the botanical gardens. in jakarta from ages six to 10. global news, 24 hours a day. powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. david: president donald trump may be able to deliver part of his goal.
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a study by the mckinsey global institute says a struggling industry could make it come back. reliefll offer little for displaced tax workers. for more on this, i want to bring in katie george. eorge.y g we have a chart here looking at payrolls. what is the state of manufacturing in the u.s.? katie: we are still the world. -- country in the world. any 9% of jobs -- it plays outsized role on the economy. it contributes 30% of the productivity. that is what drives the standard of living. >> it is a big player in the manufacturing space. report,point of your
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there is the upside and downside. we should not rely on this to provide jobs. manufacturing contributes in important ways and will remain vital. we will not go back to the 1960's or 19 these in terms of huge numbers of factory jobs. manufacturing jobs are well-paying. they are important jobs. david: a description for this if i could, where is the training going to come from? tie: training is what we are cheering from executives around the country as the number one issue that they are worried about. there is not any good holistic solution. the solution will come from many different places. businesses, corporations will need to step up their training. there are great jobs open. in manufacturing that require
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advanced skills. do not have the workforce to fill them. i need to step up education, vocational training. it will be a partnership between private and public sectors. >> the areas these jobs might be , we have a tight labor market in the u.s.. there are pockets of unemployment. given the recent political discourse, those areas might not benefit for these types of manufacturing jobs. >> that is exactly right. we are seeing that places that have been hubbs of manufacturing employment in the past are being hollowed out. in terms of capital reinvestment, the capital that exist there. or to retrain workers. david: when you look at the timetable, the rhetoric from the president.
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what is the timetable look like -- what does the timetable look like? >> this is an urgent issue. ist i find most disturbing that we have lost share in what we call advanced industries. -- value add manufacturing we are losing share in industries. it is not about who has the lowest cost of workers. rather, we are losing shared industries that are driven by technology and knowledge. that is where the united states should be strong. we have an opportunity for reset. new technologies are coming into play at a pace that is unprecedented. it will acquire refitting factories, opening new ones. where we manufacture will be different. what we think about as manufacturing will be different. there is real opportunity here. >> what would you advise the president to do?
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that is one wake you drive job creation. -- that is one wake you drive job creation. by doing that, there are downsides. what do you advise? on specificadvise policy. however, what we would say is the u.s. economy benefits most by really participating solely in the global economy. exporting,d more more direct investment. david: great to speak with you. >> thank you. david: katy george there. trumping up, the administration's energy meeting is coming to an end. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> "bloomberg markets: the trump economy" withs catch up julie. julie: the banks have been doing well, particularly on the back of a stress test. here is the weekly performance. jpmorgan and bank of america up 5% or 6%. week that itt this
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has been happening. take a look at the bloomberg. this takes a look at the stocks for the month of june. we're financials and white. things are down 5% -- the fangs are down 5%. election, we have seen this net and next performance between the two. financials opening a wide lead. moment, postelection financials are in the lead. finally, i want to look at the weighting of these two groups. 1998.oes back to late this looks at the weighting of the s&p 500. we have tech and white,
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financials and blue. you have seen that post financial crisis, the financials got close to regaining the top spot in the s&p 500 have never quite regained it. biggestby far the weighted group in the s&p 500, around 22% or 23%. finances are around 15%. even though we are seeing outperformance, really when we think we need continued outperformance or continued gains in both of these groups in order for the s&p 500 to continue. the rules are crucial between them. this week, president donald trump has been laying out his plans for the u.s. energy. he spoke to the department of energy yesterday. with theserump: incredible resources, my administration will seek not only the american energy independence but american energy
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dominant. we will be an exporter. [applause] president trump: we will be dominant. >> let's bring in calling -- coleleen. great to see you. parts of the energy complex are being affected here. he talks about revitalizing the sector. any sense on how that mikey achieved? -- any sense on how that might be achieved? most efficient and market friendly way to revitalize the nuclear sector is not something we expect donald trump will do, which is to
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implement a carbon tax. it will benefit the grid. it will make them more competitive. however, carbon tax is probably a nonstarter for the administration. what you looking at? level, new york and illinois put subsidies toward their nuclear plan. that is something that is rather counter to what we have heard out of the trump. they are in favor of getting the government out of the private sector. subsidies for nuclear plants, while keeping nuclear plants online, can directly undermine the economics. it is counterproductive to the rest of the discussion, promoting fossil fuels. if you are directly subsidizing nuclear, that undermines the
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economics. it very much is an open question of how they can achieve this while also forwarding the other parts of their energy agenda. david: let me ask you about coal. coal jobs of bringing back. he spoke in cincinnati. .he rhetoric continues how does he square the economics? coal jobs are not coming back in the quantity he described. minds are opening in pennsylvania and west virginia. a lot of the full production is coming out of the powder river basin in wyoming. they used significantly fewer laborers to mine. meanwhile, you are seeing utilities in the united states
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say they are not going to be investing. he iso of excel said that not going to be investing in cold. -- he is not going to be investing in coal. >> what is the demand situation like for coal domestically? colleen: it has been on the decline. percent ofst fit the u.s. electricity production. in 2016, only 30%. we might see a bit of a rebound in coal. the longer term trajectory, coal plants are not getting built. you saw the southern plant that was supposed to burn clean c oal. david: that was colleen.
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andrea of bloomberg joins us from washington. how do companies talk about climate change and the effects of climate change these days? has the conversation changed? rea: they are talking about it in the financial reporting. not telling them enough about the financial risks they face. people who read reports want to see more information than they are giving. >> are more companies agreeing to disclose more information on this subject? and the threats climate change and the opportunities it might pose to their businesses? more are agreeing to do that. andrea: it has happened at several annual meetings this year. exxon mobil, all of these oil giants are being asked if their
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shareholders will put out reports and how it will impact them. they have been showing up in record fashion. more thanhave gotten 60% support. -- the voats. tes. they have supporters, including blackrock. david: let's take a step back. what are we talking about when we talk about more information? .ou have folks reading these what will they likely see versus what they are getting? analysishey want more of future climate impacts. goal thatational companies are being asked. see how their business will perform in the future. few companies, a
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mostly in europe, that have done the analysis. in the u.s., companies have an reluctant. >> the governor of the bank of england, this is happening in part because -- by the g-20.d this could be on the agenda. andrea: yes. it has been a priority of the host of the g-20, the german chancellor. the big question is what will happen? have been created with the intent that the g-20 would endorse in the end. with president trump, that is not a given. david: andrea, thank you so much. coming up, the white house is preparing for a decision, sparking decision -- sparking talks about a trade war.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ david: "bloomberg markets: the trump economy" anna: the trump administration is preparing to make a decision. it is raised concerns about sparking a trade war with america's strongest allies. let's bring in kevin cirilli. kevin, we have heard from about southump korea. there is a broader conversation here. broaderhis is a much conversation. former president barack obama hadn't negotiated the 2011 trade deal. following that deal, there was a $13 billion u.s. trade deficit with south korea alone.
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fast-forward, last year there was a $27 billion trade deficit with south korea. president trump saying that needs to change. he will look at using things industryauto and steel to renegotiate that. that is something the two leaders talked about. take a listen to what president trump said earlier in the rose garden about that. president trump: the year of strategic patients, with the north korean regime has failed. -- the year of strategic patience. that patience is over. kevin: those comments, a day after steven mnuchin told reporters he is imposing new sanctions on a chinese financial institution. sanctions against
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china, but a bank. david: let's look ahead to next week that the president is going to take -- let's look ahead to next week+++ president is going to take. kevin: that will rub people the wrong way. look, next week, it will be all about russia, russia, russia. president trump meets with vladimir putin at a time when republicans are stressing the white house to take a stronger stance on russia's cyberattacks. let's not forget that the senate will past nearly unanimously from the senate.
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it kicks to the house. it is increasing pressure for the white house to do something against vladimir putin. we had one voice from the white house saying it will not be discussed. any sign that we get resolution there? we have had an about face on repeal and replace. kevin: i spoke with sources yesterday. we got into what could potentially be negotiated. they're hoping to potentially expand what are known as the health savings account programs. that is a popular conservative ideology. the moderates looking for more of the two hundred billion dollar terms of negotiations status -- strategy. look for opioid addiction in particular and programs to help with addiction. they will really be on -- an issue of concern. again, no moderate will get on board and less it is adequately shifted. no timeline yet.
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although lawmakers are heading to barbecues. they will get a lot of flak on that. what kind of engagement should we expect from the white house? kevin: they are saying they are engaged. the comment president trump made about a reporters face, that is what washington has been talking about. those are two moderates that he needs in order to get his health care policy and other policies across the finish line. david: kevin cirilli, thank you so much. he is joining us from outside the white house and washington, d.c. at 8:00, alix steel and karen massar.- caroline
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you can catch all the interviews on bloomberg with the function tv . anna: more brexit conversations. enjoy fourth of july. i am heading back home. david: it has been wonderful to have you. anna: enjoy fourth of july. that has been "bloomberg markets: the trump economy" thank you for watching. ♪
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i'm julie chatterley. welcome to bloomberg markets. scarlet: we are live in bloomberg headquarters in new york over the next hour. here are the top stories we are covering now around the world and on the bloomberg. stocks regaining their footing after yesterday's selloff, not to mention the second quarter as well. washington's legislative backlog amid a standstill in the president's agenda. -- thisticians are could set the stage for a trade war ahead of the g-20 summit. forwarren buffett going up a $10 billion windfall from bank of america. we will ask the longtime shareholder about what this move indicates on bank stocks. u.s. stock markets close for the first half, and let's get a


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