tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg July 18, 2017 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
from new york, this is the european close on bloomberg markets. ♪ nejra: here are the top stories we are covering from around the world. the pound flipping against the dollar as new data shows u.k. inflation posting and i'm expected decline -- an unexpected decline. bank of america and goldman sachs report underwhelming earnings. does that hold any close for european bank earnings which, next week? politics u.s. -- blamestrump lanes democrats and a few you republicans for the failure of the health care bill.
let's have a look at where european equities are straight -- ours trading right now. european stocks dropping for the first day in five. you can see broad-based losses 1.4%,germany down eurozone stocks down more than 1%, spain lower as well. if we look at the epic space we fx dollar weakness -- -- space we see dollar weakness as well. after that health care reform bill, the dollar at an 11 months low. the euro gaining against it. 1.15 against it. sterling weakness coming through after the u.k. inflation data unexpectedly softened off 3/10 of 1%. in the fixed income space, yields coming down both in the core and the periphery. we are seeing gold bid along with the yen for today's session.
crude is at $48 a barrel. digging into equities, it is what happening with different industry groups. tech stocks leading in the losses. a lot of that down to ericsson. perhaps some of that feedthrough, with what we are seeing in u.s. financials. materials also lower. commodity losses leading the gains yesterday. the stoxx 600 went to overboard territory and we are seeing it for the first time in seven days in today's session. the stoxx 600 down 8/10 of a percent. sterling,bout weaker this is the chart, you can see that did there. it had been higher before the inflation date. the euro here, a longer-term chart, i'm taking it back to 2014, what we are seeing on euro-dollar is pushing towards that handle, it is at its highest and's early may of 2016. art of it is dollar weakness --
part of it is dollar weakness. i want to start with an update on chipotle. new concerns over food safety. the company's spokesman saying it looks like some illnesses that occurred in relation to one of its locations in sterling, virginia and were stemming from nora virus and not a food supply issue. that is according to a spokesman in charge of food safety at the company. nonetheless, reports coming after chipotle had begun to rebound following its last string of food safety crises. we see the shares now down by 5%. the company says that location is set to reopen today. we will see how this continues to shake out. overall in the u.s. we are seeing a downdraft but the nasdaq has turned positive by just five points, so not a big
even as the dow and the s&p 500 continue to languish. we are watching the fx -- the effect of the failure of republicans to get a health care place past. we are also seeing health care movers under various new stores. united health coming out with earnings that beat estimates. jason gorman says there may be hesitation because there is increasing competition. johnson & johnson little changed after that earnings report beat estimates. treat's medication to crohn's disease did fall by a pointer to. a breast cancer drug winning approval from the fda, there had been concerned that it would not. it had severe gastrointestinal side effects.
it makes it an m&a target. drug distributors and specialty pharmaceuticals, cardinal health and others are trading lower. disappointment over this lack of legislative progress, with the u.s. dollar. take a look here. we have a 14 day relative strength index here. we see that the lowest it has been in nearly five years time. fxorgan's head of commodities and international rates says the dollar collapse we've seen this year is already large by historical standards. you can see that as reflected in this chart. this has seemingly been more than stocks. the proxy for disappointment or for optimism around developments in washington. vonnie: julie, thank you. let's check in with courtney. >> the morning or the u.s. has imposed sanctions on
organizations and people link to iran. trumpomes after the administration certifies that iran is complying with the nuclear deal. these new sanctions are for nonnuclear activity including actions of the military guard of iran. president trump is blaming congressional democrats and some republicans for the failure of the obamacare replacement bill. the president tweeted that most republicans were loyal and terrific. mitch mcconnell has scrapped efforts to only replacement. he will look to straight repeal. right now they do not have enough votes. if all democrats stay opposed. house republicans are unveiling a budget that ignores president trump's proposed cuts to federal agencies. the 54 billion dollars in cuts that he wants. there is a bigger boost in military spending then he, the
president requested. several top conservative party officials in the u.k. want theresa may to put an end to backstabbing. ministers spoke out against the chancellor of the exchequer, philip hammond. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. nejra: thank you so much courtney. let's turn back to the markets. euro climbing, hitting its highest ahead of the ecb meeting on thursday meanwhile, the pound weakening on an unexpected drop on you u.k. inflation last month. joining us to discuss the european economy and central-bank holocene -- central-bank policy -- good afternoon to you. they to have you. great to have you.
you pickedhe things up as a great surprise is the lack of inflation. relative to expectations. i am wondering how you position yourself. are you more willing to take on duration risks? >> central banks have been a surprise, it has made it uncertain when it comes to position and government bonds. this month there was volatility around the reaction function of the bank of england. onhink today's report inflation discusses how far they will go in terms of increasing interest rates so that will reduce some uncertainty around guilt and it should make it more attractive. nejra: interesting you say that because right here i have the 10 year spread. i showed this chart yesterday because we have been seeing that spread tighten. i guess you could argue that is on lower expectations of the
retyping versus the ecb. would you agree with that? i guess the difference really other the growth data, growth momentum is stronger than it u.k. growth momentum. that is what the data reflects their it are seeing a slowdown u.k.e u.k. economy, households or consumer incomes are falling. that is being reflected in that spread. andad the ecb on thursday our view right now is that european on yields don't reflect -- on yields don't -- bond yields don't reflect what is going on in the economy. alternative credit has been an
interesting area for us for a number of years now. spreads have narrowed considerably. i think what we really need to focus on rather than just the reaction function of the ecb is also the fed. that matters to credit globally. week, we werest very clear with the outlook for u.s. inflation. we have to continue to monitor that, credit, also earnings matter for credit and the outlook for corporate in their balance sheets. ,elative to government bonds credit is still an interesting area. you're still getting a yield pickup and if you can go into the niche alternative area there is more award to be had. we also need to think of broader areas. >> can you give us an example of niche areas and alternative credit areas?
particularly in britain and in euros. ? >> if we think about credit in particular, loans are still interesting with regards to what financials are doing. the results of a stress test suggest there is more capital there. i still think high-yield leverage loans is still an interesting area. every move outside of credit and the debtwithin universe, emerging market debt is also an interesting area. year have seen drop the spread to have narrowed and valuations are not as attractive as they have been. it is still an interesting thing. nejra: when you look at european equities and you take into account the stronger euro that we have seen, how does that affect your positioning within the european equity space? >> we have to take that into consideration because this will impact earnings.
we are starting this earnings season rather optimistic -- the consensus is optimistic for european earnings and a lot of that is impacted. we have be cautious. with regards to what the impact of a stronger euro would be for european equities because we have a lot of exporters and we have to consider what it means for the dax index for example. this look more broadly, improvement in european growth is very good for domestic orientated earnings. we struggle to find a positive case for domestic euro. think perhaps, maybe i'm being too optimistic, but perhaps finally, domestic europe can outperform. nejra: great. you will stay with us. we will be talking about opportunities in the u.s. next. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. nejra: and live from london, we frombout 15 minutes away the european the dollar sliding to an 11 month low. in the tell of the republican effort to repeal and replace obamacare. goldman sachs turned in their worst first half performance in more than a decade. to talk about this and the trump trade and the outlook for , remi, thisrnings is a dollar index over the past year. it is almost as if the trump trade never happened. is this
fairly valued now? >> if we move that chart back a couple of years there is still a long way to go in terms of the dollar. part of it is due to the trump trade but also because the u.s. is doing very well. if we take the improvements in european growth, the emerging market regions, then one can suggest that the premiums for the dollar need to adjust. around thehe news failure of the health care bill is disappointing. it puts a? mark around the broader trump agenda. what about tax reform? that is being reflected in the dollar. nejra: and when we talk about we have to talk about banks. we have bank of america and
goldman reporting today. the share prices are down today but are these transient factors for you? the trading at goldman -- do you think ultimately there is a trade there with u.s. banks to be made? >> yes. look at the takeaways from the reporting season. trade and revenues are down. that is justified given the low volatility that it is today. the interest margins are down, ue, loan growth has been ok but that seems to be more draining. what is good about u.s. banks right now is deregulation. helpful.ion is very as a shareholder that means there is more capital that can be returned to shareholders. more buybacks, more dividends, this strengthens the case for u.s. banks relative to other sectors. if we do get tax reform, there stion around that today
but that is an additional boost for banks. earnings is not that great but to be fair, a lot of the banks have tried to manage expectations. their expectations were high and they have tried to manage expectations with the slightly more cautious outlook on net interest margins going forward. vonnie: we are seeing the impact of washington's failure to get any legislation into chambers, in the dollar. in bonds, and yields, but we are not seeing it in equities yet. is there reckoning coming? >> i think right now earnings growth is still quite solid. you say we have to think of where the future growth is going to come from. the trump agenda is very important for that. i think what investors are having to debate right now is
that meansat -- going forward. we need to see a united front in the republican party to tackle these really challenging issues. the equity market is always helpful. that is the beauty of equity investment. we have to be hopeful. right now, yes the equity market is taking a more hopeful stance. that something will come through as we move through the year. nejra: just a quick question again on banks. to have retained exposure the 30 year u.s. bond, that has to do with inflation expectations -- does that not mean that you might be more negative on something like bank of america with the numbers we got from net interest margin? portfolio, we a have to think about upside and downside risk. with the fact that inflation keeps undershooting, really supports the long end of the
yield cap. long yield bonds. i think of banks in a different way. net interest margins has disappointed but actually, if we do get an increase in interest rates which affect the ,hort-term of the yield curve that might be ok for banks. as long as growth, u.s. growth improves, that is also important for loan, incomes, net interest margins. that is important for banks. now, inflationht is more associated with the view on their ability to generate returns from low growth. nejra: thank you so much. thank you again. vonnie: still ahead, no longer a greek tragedy. the country making a comeback from the debt crisis. this is bloomberg. ♪
from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. nejra: and live from london we had the european close minutes away. , aece making a comeback potential return to the bond market after a three-year absence. from -- joining us with the latest we have -- we are live in athens. >> is looking likely, there have been rumors that it would be happening at the beginning of the week. at the moment, it will be next week. there was a report in the newspaper today that the government had decided to hold off and waited till the imf released the analysis. and the ratings review later in the week. the government might be waiting to get those out of the way
first. hence the speculation of this week. there were reasons why the timing is very good for greece to return. this month. or certainly by the end of august. one is that the country's expires in 2018 so a year of market access would be the kind of precedent that has been set by portugal and the amount of time that it needs to be accessing markets before it can make a clean rate from the bailout. market conditions are good with a high risk appetite so strike while the iron is hot. vonnie: at what point with the ecb consider buying bonds or do you think that would happen? >> that is one of the reasons actually, why it would be a pr thing for the government if they return to bond markets because the government has been wishing that the ecb would admit greek bonds to the qe program and for
a long time and have been arguing that this would be a step to resume market access. but that is not happen. for the ecb to do that more is needed on debt relief. at this stage it is unlikely to happen before german elections at the very earliest. -- general elections at the very earliest. thisble to establish before, it would be a pr boost for the government. it means they would do it without the ecb. the government insists that they will not time this for pr reasons, they will going when the timing is right. that is their line. that said, we mentioned that the government of greece was in the market three years ago. since the start of the debt crisis in 2009, if they can sell five-year bonds at a yield of equaling the year of 2014, i am sure they would welcome that.
marcus, thank you so much. we are looking ahead at the close of european equity trading. let's see with a are. down for the first time in five days. the stoxx 600, as you can see there, down more than 1%. the dax down more than 1.3%. not up by quite as much. 2/10 of a percent. -- 2/10 of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ whoooo.
market action today. that action has been downward when we are talking about european act -- equities. looking at the stoxx 600, the dax lower by 1.2%. euro stock 60, down almost 1%. weakness in spain, greece, and western european markets. in the fx space, we have seen a broad-based dollar weakness at an 11-month low. you got the euro up .8%. 115.74. questions over whether that would head over to the 116 handle. the pound weakening from a 10-month high down .2% after u.k. inflation data came in softer than expected. still above the 130.28. fixed income space, yields are moving lower in the core and the periphery. gold bids, we are seeing some
metals, bit of a mixed picture. oil bids also looking at rent. -- brand -- looking at the rand. questions of when the stronger euro will start to eat into the earnings. this is normalized as of the end of last year. here to date you can see how much the euro has powered forward, that is the blue line versus the stoxx 600. various industry groups, overall the benchmark down some .7%. you are seeing most industry groups lower. only real estate and utilities not in the red. tech stocks are leading the losses followed by financials. feedthrough be some from the u.s. bank earnings. commodities down as well. they were leading gains yesterday. they win into overboard territory -- went into overboard territory. speaking of tech stocks leading
the assets and the worst performer in the session among the stoxx 600 is ericsson. shares falling the most in nine months after earnings missed estimates. it also cautioned turning around the beleaguered phone equipment maker will require even steeper cost cuts, really testing the patience of investors. erickson down almost 60%. vonnie: it is the trade of the month. 95 dollar-index down below today and well below 95. 94.55. .6%, benefiting the likes of the yen. point 91. yen up 111 46 --oil still in this $46 range even though we are hearing about a lot of countries either thinking about cutting production further like saudi up productioning in the cases of ecuador and
other countries. the 10-year yield 2.6%. global macro movers show us that equity indices across the world are lower today with the exception of the united states, which is lower, but not by as much. we're going to get to get -- abigail doolittle. abigail: we have big banks in the spotlight after bank of america and goldman sachs reported earnings for the second quarter before the open of trading today. shares of both of these banks are trading lower. goldman sachs on pace for the worst day since the end of may. despite the fact that both beat on top and bottom. there are gerrish nuances to -- garish index -- nuances to both of those. sachs miss trading revenue estimates in a big way by 21%. weighingues seem to be on those shares and the trading revenue miss for goldman sachs and jpmorgan last friday seems to be weighing on shares of
morgan stanley. they report tomorrow before the opening. they receive a lot of their revenue from trading. take a look at this chart in the terminal. it really shows relationship to trading revenue with stock action. .his is g #btv4717 we have morgan trading -- morgan trading revenue. in 2015 stock went higher and as it declined, stock went with it. in recovery, stock went higher as well. the estimate for this second quarter is $1.2 billion. down sharply from the first quarter. this stock appears to be levitating, but the estimates it just we could see shares -- suggests we could see shares back down. beyond these bearish nuances, another factor weighing on the banks is the 10-year yield. this is an intraday chart. in white we have 10-year yields. monday of last week, chair janet
tone, did adopt a dovish dropping about 10 basis points over this time. period. the -- time it will be interesting to see how this plays out. right now, some weakness for the banks. vonnie: abigail doolittle. thank you for all of that context. bank of america ceo ryan moynahan addressed operating leverage on a call with investors. that's revenue keeps going up, that will produce further operating leverage. we have not made projections past the 53. more just because we have a lot of initiatives coming in. vonnie: let's bring in bloomberg reporter laura kanner. after all the conference calls, what stuck with you? ofra: that is brian moynihan
bank of america talking about expensive. since that call and the media call with journalists, they are -- four revenue for any bank, especially something like inc. of america. that is something that fell despite these predictions from brian moynihan really two months into the quarter saying at least we would have $35 million-$50 million increasing and we actually saw a decline of $100 million. that was the thing analysts were fixated on. vonnie: why the decline in the change in guidance going forward? laura: bank of america is tied to long-term rates at any time you see the 10 year really not doing what we think it should be doing and picking up, that is bad for bank of america. that happened in this quarter and there were also noisy things like they sold their u.k. credit card unit and that takes away net interest income.
really it is these longer-term rates and not really going the way bank of america would like them to. vonnie: let's bring in leonel .round -- lionel laurent do you think investors need to take a much more nuanced approach than sort of following the positive bank trade we kind of had for a lot of this year? lionel: it's different than the where a lot of it was around share buybacks and deregulation. in europe it was driven by politics, the french election, the sense there would be a catch-up as the banks got healthier. i think some of the issues in the u.s. and the lack of volatility, the falling yields, that will affect trading desks at the european banks as well. lara, can we finally ask your thoughts on what we might read into going forward on when these margins will improve?
after all, we are not going to get another fed rate increase until at the minimum, september. probably more like december and that doesn't even seem to make that much of a difference. these a lot of stagnation zombies numbers. bank of america, they were asked win is net interest -- we did not really comment about nimm itself. they said it should be up as long as they get a little more loan growth and these rates inching up on the long end of the curve. they won't say by how much and they won't even necessarily promise it will go up, their feeling is definitely that things will continue higher. vonnie: thank you. nejra: if we turn back to banking in europe, citigroup seems to have chosen frankfurt in thenewest trading hub
e.u. the bank plans to present the option to the board of directors week for approval. for this story and more, we are joined by lionel laurent. all, hearto, first of from the ceo of handles bank. we had francine lacqua speak to him earlier. margins and rates are all a result of competition. they go up and down over time. in the long term, we are firmly margins andcommitted to the u.d we are growing handsomely. we will take whatever the rates in the margins are overtime. mind, bearing that in committed to the u.k. when we hear from handles punk and -- handlesbanken, what should we read into all of this? is uniquendlesbanken
and decentralized swedish bank that does branch banking in the u.k. and the u.k. is one of its a guest foreign markets. if you have something like that, you are not going to drop it easily. and likeandlesbanken other banks, they might see a in the -- to staying u.k. citigroup needs international trading and -- and that passport into the e.u. and the safest pattern is having a base ready just in case to see what happens and i think it has made that choice in frankfurt. early days yet, but i think you see two kinds of situations developing. nejra: we are talking about a trading hub, not a move of headquarters. nonetheless, frankfurt does seem to be winning in terms of what we have heard from other banks as well. lionel: true. i think it is seen as a center of eurozone finance because that is where the ecb is. given there is also the
regulator there, there may be an advantage in opening your first hub there. in terms of the number of people, it could be a couple hundred and that would not be the majority of the employees a lot of these big banks have in london. nejra: thank you so much to line all around l --ionel -- lionel laurent for joining us on the program. vonnie: daimler announcing a voluntary recall for 3 million diesel vehicles in europe. daimler announces a voluntary recall, 3 million diesels in europe will be recalled. to upgradevesting diesel cars. daimler recalling 3 million diesel cars across europe to fix the mission problems -- emission problems. they are down 1.32%.
♪ live from london and new york, i am nejra cehic. vonnie: and i am vonnie quinn. switching to health care, maine senator susan collins say she is a big no on the health care repeal vote. -- says she has serious concerns about how to continue to provide affordable care after medicaid expansion. the bloomberg
health care reporter for more on how all this talk impacts the business world. the 3.0moved on from version of the gop bill to the repeal, which is now also failing potentially. we need three senators to say no and two have come out and said absolute no. >> that is right and you have seen the gop which -- switch from strategy to strategy to strategy and other thing they want to do repeal. hours after that you had -- how many more of these rounds are regard to go before folks come to the table and try to come up with a solution? vonnie: what about the insurance? the ones that pulled out of the exchanges, what would entice them to come back in. zach: the big for profit have the individual markets so they get to sit on the sidelines and decide is the
gop creating a system that gets me back in or not? stable markets, they want to know what the rules are. have a lot gop bills of extra funding. right now they are content to sit on the sidelines. healthi guess united benefiting here, those adjusted estimates.ating it is really putting obamacare struggles behind it. zach: that's right. they got in -- into obamacare in a big way and lost a lot of money last year and now they are pretty much out. they put that in their past. they are doing well in medicare and they have medicaid business and employer coverage. they took a lot of losses last year and they got out and they are quite happy about that decision today. nejra: what is ahead? zach: we are going to keep watching the earnings from the different health insurers. we are also watching what is going on in the senate. the senators, like we were
talking about, are trying to figure out if they have the 50 votes they need to even begin to debate on health care measure. vonnie: what insurers have indicated that they might return to places like virginia and other states that are really suffering at this point? there are many's -- many counties in virginia where you cannot even buy a health care plan. zach: there are two insurers that are big and obamacare and are expanding. one is a medicaid specialist that has expanded in nine states . really a broad expansion and the other is a startup called oscar insurance. they have been out talking about how they are betting on the individual market. it is an interesting that because if everybody else is getting out, you get in and you can set the prices and if things work out, you will make money and it will be good for you. vonnie: how do you see this playing out? if obamacare survives all of these attempted attacks, does it survive unblemished because there are clearly still problems
with it and you have to wonder about things like demand and so on? a great question what will happen to obamacare under a republican administration, under tom price and donald trump. the president tweeted this morning that obamacare is failing and it needs to fail before we come up with a solution. howe's a lot of worry about this administration will run the health law and coming into 2018 sign-upey run the period, they have to enforce these rules and it's a big question what environment that creates for insurers. vonnie: what are the hospitals were -- hoping for? zach: they want people to stay covered. they have been strongly opposed to the repeal effort and they are probably breathing a sigh of relief, but it remains to be seen what happens down the road. vonnie: zach tracer is keeping on top of all of it for us. time now for the bloomberg business flash. a look at some of the business -- biggest business stories in
the news right now. more on the breaking news we brought you just moments ago. there is a big recall involving mercedes-benz. tyler says it will recall 3 mler says it will recall 3 million diesel vehicles in europe. -- banking on a slate of recently improved drugs. they are also counting on the acquisition of a swiss drugmaker. the amazon-whole foods deal is paid -- is facing mounting pressure. congressional democrats and a food workers union asked investigate the deal for antitrust issues. they say it should not be a problem because the companies do not compete directly. in the u.k., jane austen is getting quite an offer on the 200th anniversary of her death.
the bank of england unveiled a new 10 pound note featuring the author of "pride and prejudice." austen is the only woman other than the queen to be on a pound note. it will last about 2.5 times longer than the old paper one. that is the latest business flash. coming up, battle of the charts time. . battle of rates versus wits we will show you where global investors are looking to take profits. this is bloomberg. ♪
the global battle of the charts when we take a look at some of the most telling charts of the day and what they mean for investors all across new york city and the city of london. you can access these charts by running the function at the bottom of your screen. kicking things off in our studio is joe weisenthal. >> i want to talk about how much money you can make betting against volatility. whicheal line is the xiv i jokingly refer to on twitter as the magical money tree because it basically just goes up. 4.5, takinge advantage of the declining vix and the shape of the volatility curve. you make a fortune betting against volatility. this blue line is a measure of short-term implied volatility and the vix is slightly longer over the next nine days. it recently hit the lowest level
ever. you think about how much people are willing to pay against risk and you think about the lack of volatility and how everyone thinks volatility is going to go up, but the fact of the matter is the real money has been made, just a fortune betting against it with the xiv. , ans kind of like an etf extraordinary instrument to watch. you can see that on the bloomberg at g #btv 2506. i don't know anything about the future, i can just tell you about the past. vonnie: we are going to dock you for not being able to predict the future. nejra: we have been talking about euro strength today. euro-dollar at the highest since may. equities down for the first time in five days. relationship between the euro and the dax is back. here you have the dax in white and the bloomberg euro index in
blue. what happened is we saw these sort of moving in tandem after the first and second round of the french election because we saw investors putting money into european assets. both euro and equities as the election risk habit -- ebbed away. i felt quite smug about this chart when we spoke to remi olu-pitan because she said you may have to be careful looking at the dax on the euro strength because this chart is suggesting perhaps you do. vonnie: you are both quite taken with the inverse today, which i am finding fascinating that you both picture that. in a topsy-turvy, upside down world, it is nice to look at where things are diverging. that said, today, it will be a direct relationship between the two of you, the opposite of inverse, i will award you a tie. , i amt makes me a wuss
vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, here are the top stories we are following. u.s. stocks are sliding today, the dollar hitting on 11-month low, this as donald trump's plans for the economy, at least on health care, falter once again. that republican health care bill is dead. we speak with obamacare architect jonathan gruber of m.i.t. and get his take on the future of health care. plus, lloyd blankfein's roots are letting him down as goldman sachs traders deliver the worst stock performance since he became ceo. we are halfway into the trading day, and julie hyman is joining us with the latest. it's only tuesday, and so much has happened. julie: when you get into earnings