tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg July 18, 2017 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, here are the top stories we are following. u.s. stocks are sliding today, the dollar hitting on 11-month low, this as donald trump's plans for the economy, at least on health care, falter once again. that republican health care bill is dead. we speak with obamacare architect jonathan gruber of m.i.t. and get his take on the future of health care. plus, lloyd blankfein's roots are letting him down as goldman sachs traders deliver the worst stock performance since he became ceo. we are halfway into the trading day, and julie hyman is joining us with the latest. it's only tuesday, and so much has happened. julie: when you get into you see a mixed
picture, largely driven by the earnings. davidson, those are some of the highlights. the dow, under pressure. the s&p, little changed. netflix is certainly helping matters. if you take a look at what is moving under the hood of the s&p as oneu have financials of the worst performing sectors report,at goldman sachs not only first-half trading butnue week, but -- weak, the second-quarter commodities trading revenue, the weakest on record. one of the groups that is also seeing some weakness is the home builders. all lower. we got the july reading for the national association of homebuilders sentiment, and we saw sentiment weakening, part of
it having to do with the lack of action in washington, or at least not as soon as the most optimistic predictions had been expecting. there is some concern about economic growth. take a look at the bloomberg. we've got a look at this homebuilder confidence. that is in yellow. we did peak earlier this year, and since then, we've been coming down. very tight inventory of homes right now. that has been one of the things --t has been pressed during pressuring prices of homes. you also have rising lumber prices. that is a higher input costs. time, we are seeing the 30-year rate. we've got yields moving lower as we see d.c. republicans not succeeding in getting health care done, what it is interesting that the 30-year
mortgage, which, yes, it's higher since we saw the fed raise rates, but it has been trending lower. that is not something that is boosting confidence. vonnie: thank you for that. there's a question over implementability when it comes to president trump's economic revitalization agenda. where should investors be turning for returns? the chief market strategist for prudential is here. is your job harder than it used to be? >> it's disconcerting, but the fact is, as you know, the market basically transitioned from hope to despair to reality and went back to what we would call fundamentals. if they can get through some sort of tax cut -- no one is expecting full-fledged tax reform -- obviously, it is
important for confidence. it's important for the overall economy. even without that, companies are doing well. the weaker dollar is probably going to help the industrial names. data beingomic picked up around the world. it's a question of, where are you going to put your money? in today's market data being picked up around the world. , it's as if the entire market is falling. the market has been transitioning. we are getting into august, which is probably the least favorable month for the market, and there's probably something out there that should bring that market down a bit. that and howt seen long? 10%, we haven't seen that in years. vonnie: if you are a long-term
investor, do you worry about the 5% or 10% decline? >> you are not supposed to worry, but the fact is we are not conditioned to that anymore. i think because there is so much cash, we will see that money going to work. even though the economy is not gaining the kind of momentum we want to see after a week first quarter, it is still not stalling. that's the issue, whether or not you see the business cycle .lowing down that is suggestive of a business cycle that is blowing too much. >> you have a massive fixed income background. are you liking portions of fixed income, or are you sticking with what looks to be safer equities? if you sayonic, and to anyone, how about having some money in fixed income, particularly in the treasury
market, they look at you as if you don't understand anything, but the fact is that you need a hedge in a portfolio. for the average investor, they need a hedge on the and that hedge is when of the 10-year yield comes down and the treasury market does better. we also like high-yield. we also like if the economic data begins to pick up again, you are going to see floating rate. there's a place in the portfolio for fixed income. we do like equities, and if it becomes less expensive, we like it even more. this is going to be an interesting summer. washington, if you were to do that all day, you would never do anything. you have to focus on the market and what the markets are telling us. vonnie: are you primarily looking at domestic sectors?
>> absolutely. janet yellen gave the emerging markets a wonderful bid last week. the market thought was, she sounds a tad more dovish. perhaps we won't get a rate hike in september, maybe december. we still like emerging markets. we like europe, but we also like u.s. equities. a mix would make for an attractive portfolio going ahead. euro,: is it the weaker or is it something else? >> the valuations are attractive, but if you see the euro gaining momentum, it's not going to be attractive. it would weaken the u.s. dollar, making american exporters more attractive. we are paying close attention to mario draghi. the market is in hypervigilant
mode for what he has say about the program of quantitative easing. does he talk about how strong the economy is? that's not exactly what he wants. vonnie: he's very cunning. is very sly when it comes to markets. >> back in, he knows he caused a mini tantrum the last time he spoke. perhaps he wanted to do that to give the market notice, get ready, because at some point, we are going to begin tapering. if he is too enthusiastic, that euro moves higher. vonnie: the chances of any tax reform getting done in the next 12 months even? delusional,aive or but i believe the administration not only wants but needs to offer something to the base that
voted for them -- not the base that is there that has been with the president from the beginning, the small business owners, for the average american. you have to start tax reform. you've got to offer something. how do you go to the midterms without anything to offer? small businesses by a large have been pro-republican, pro-trump. they are the ones who need to have regulatory reform and tax reform. two out of every three jobs comes from small and sized businesses -- midsized businesses. vonnie: let's check in on first word news. here's mark crumpton. pence sayspresident congress needs to "step up and do their job" in the aftermath of the republican health care plan's failure to win consensus.
the vice president made his comments to members of the national retail federation. >> the senate should vote to repeal now and replace later or return to the legislation carefully crafted in the house and senate, but either way, inaction is not an option. mark: the majority leader of the senate mitch mcconnell didn't have the votes for his repeal and replace plan. he is now pushing a repeal and delay effort, but there may not be enough votes to pass that. house republicans are unveiling a budget that ignores president trump's proposed cuts to federal agencies. the plan cuts nondefense spending by $5 billion rather than the $54 billion in cuts the president wants. republicans are calling for a bigger boost in military spending and the president requested. the united states has imposed sanctions on 16 people and organizations linked to iran. the move comes one day after the trump administration certified
that iran is complying with the nuclear deal. these sanctions are for nonnuclear activity, including support for iran's revolutionary guard. russia has issued a new warning to the u.s. that it might expel u.s. diplomatic property in russia if compounds in the u.s. are not reopened. the outgoing obama administration last year expelled 35 russian officials two the u.s. and shut down russian estates in the country that president obama said were being used for spy operations. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 and analyst -- journalists and analysts, i am mark crumpton. sachs: coming up, goldman faces its worst performance since ceo lloyd blankfein took
vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm vonnie quinn. disappointing quarterly results from goldman sachs and bank of america. vix income trading for goldman sachs, down 40%, making it the worst first half of ceo lloyd blankfein's term as ceo. think of america's interest -- bank of america's interest in decline after failing to capitalize on a fed rate hike. i don't want to completely malign the banks. there were some bright spots. >> look overall, they are solid.
they are generally beating expectations. in general, they are making progress on overall revenues and keeping costs under control. most importantly for investors, credit continues to be under control. vonnie: what is confusing for investors is that the disappointing areas where the core businesses. would it be better if the losses came in peripherals? >> it sure looks like the market was looking for loan growth and interest expansion. it seems like each bank has disappointed one way or the other. either one, the market seems to be penalizing banks. vonnie: the biggest banks overall have recovered close to -- to the to before levels before the financial crisis. are they fairly valued again, or are we overvalued? >> we think the largest banks are fairly valued, and we think
there are upside possibilities. we are not far above where we were. some of the smaller banks look relatively fully valued. there are select opportunities between those smaller banks. vonnie: when you say smaller banks, what are we talking about? from $500 million to $5 billion. vonnie: are we dealing with a consolidation push? >> not at all. we think regulatory changes at the top of the administration should move some of the deals through faster. we are seeing a number of smaller bank mergers, and we think they could get bigger overtime. vonnie: when it comes to net profit, we are to levels before the crisis. the economy looks distinctly different from what it did. what does that signal to you? back to the return on an woody's.
that is thing for investors because they have a lot more capital for earnings to go against. that is thing for investors because they have a lot more vonnie: what is the bank you like the most at the moment? what is your go to call? >> on the big banks, i think citi seems to be getting a bit. i think that is fair. producenic that citi the best quarter. historically, it's been the opposite. from a valuation standpoint, citi looks good. vonnie: is it a change of mindset because citi has one good quarter? >> you have to be careful with citi. they have a tendency to slip on the banana peel globally. from a valuation standpoint, operational standpoint, they have made great strides, and we
think that is reasonably good place to put your money. vonnie: if something happens in washington regarding dodd-frank -- do you imagine something will? >> we don't think anything legislative>>ly will go through. what we are expecting is a continued change in tone from regulators and some of the ways the rules and regulations are implemented, and that can support some of these banks with some more rational rules. vonnie: who will benefit most? >> ironically, the big banks. vonnie: all of them across the board? >> exactly, the biggest banks. everyone thinks, everyone wants to help the small banks, but in fact, the small banks have been carved out from heavy regulation. those who can benefit the most are the biggest banks. vonnie: when it comes to trading revenue, at some point, do we see a big shift again, or has citigroup grabbed market share that it is not going to let go?
if volatility picks up, do we see the whole pie increasing? are two pieces of it, cyclical and structural. structurally, we are pushing profitability down. moving to is exchanges, and the market is becoming more efficient. cyclically, this has been a tough quarter. vonnie: fred cannon, always a pleasure. that was fred cannon, global director of research. time for the latest bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories. parent daimler will recall 300 million cars -- 3 million cars in europe. it's a measure to reassure owners amid increasing scrutiny from the german government over emissions scandals. harley davidson shares are down, this after the company cut its annual bike sales forecast as
chipotle shares are falling based on reports from customers in virginia who contracted an illness symptomatic of norovirus after eating at the restaurant. this resulted in chipotle's worst stock decline in over two months. here to talk about chipotle is craig jim otto who covers the food industry for us. the stock, it was a trigger reaction as soon as "business insider" reported these different illnesses. >> i think it' spoeaks to the sensitivity related to anything with illness. you get sort of chipotle and illness in a headline, and the stock is going to go down. vonnie: their defense was, it was norovirus.
it has nothing to do with food. would that really console a customer? >> no. i think that distinction is largely lost on the average person. what the person that thinks is, people are getting sick at your public. should i stop going there? got ill,, no customers but they saw a short-term sales decline. people see the headlines, and maybe they decide to skip the trip for the lunch burrito. norovirus, it can happen anywhere. it's not because i. it's certainly better. the headline is not good, but the distinction is lost on the average person. vonnie: even that sentence is hilarious, "at least it isn't e. coli." what is it happening at chipotle if there isn't an endemic problem? >> some of their protocols have come under question. they hire people who came in and said, these restaurants are going to be the safest in the industry. maybe this was no fault of their
own, but it puts a spotlight on their protocol. this doesn't happen other places, or you don't hear about it as much. vonnie: by the way, i should say chipotle has come out and recognize these illnesses and acknowledging that these illnesses took place in that one restaurant in virginia. it's not like this is, well, maybe people got sick at the same time and assumed it was chipotle. they are acknowledging it. , theirad one analyst say new protocol is quickly closing down of these restaurants. they are in a no-win situation. they react quickly. who knows how the norovirus got into that restaurant? it could've come from a customer. anything like this is going to put the stock in a bad spot. vonnie: let's see where we stand 19h analysts, 10 buys, holds. it's like the sentiment is pretty good surrounding the
business model. >> the stock is way, way down. the peak was somethinit's lost s value. it's been under 400. it was up 4% for the year before today. now it's going into negative territory. do these guys need a chief operating officer? vonnie: if they had ruled or someone else was brought in, with that fix the problem? >> december of 2017, the co-ceo took over full control. is, should steve tells be in charge of the day-to-day operations, or should we have a coo come in and clean this up? vonnie: coming up, the mayor of d.c. this is bloomberg. ♪
the indices are mixed. the s&p 500 down fractionally. the nasdaq composite is in the green, up .2. let's get details from abigail doolittle. abigail: helping to explain the divergence you outlined with the dow down the most, this is the worst sector for the dow and second-worst for the s&p 500. the nasdaq does not have too much exposure to financials. the weakness for the america, jpmorgan and morgan stanley. they are down out of five of the last seven days on the series of disappointing earnings reports. on top ofchs are bottom line estimates but bank of america missed on interest income, the klein. goldman sachs -- decline. goldman sachs missed trading revenue by 20 1%, which is similar to jpmorgan.
trading down by more than 1%, recording tomorrow before the bell, similar to goldman sachs. they derive a lot of revenue from trading action, so investors may think the weakness we see in that segment could bode poorly for them. if we look at the five-day chart of the 10 year yield, a big decline represented in green, telling us bonds are rallying ther janet yellen suggested fed may not be in a hurry to raise rates. that decline in yield weighing on the banks and that lending activity of interest income expectations, so that is a bearish tailwind overall. another sector in the spotlight, health care, on the likelihood the gop health care bill would not be passed and congress may go toward repealing obamacare. reaction onixed health care stocks.
we have the bloomberg intelligence hospital index down modestly. this is the sector within health care that stands to benefit the most if obamacare stays in place. --ina healthcare undefended benefits if obamacare stays in place but humana and cigna down, paying a big insurance tax or fee, and if obamacare stays in place, so will that tax and investors may not like that. this suggests'there is weakness around president trump agendas not been able to pass some sort of tax reform -- this suggests there is weakness around president trump's agenda not been able to pass some sort of health care or tax reform. that piece of the trump trade stays in place but in blue, the bloomberg dollar index, it around the beginning of the year, the dollar started to drop. andot this chart last week
the recent drop to the bloomberg dollar index really suggest that this divergence for the trump trade is intensifying and could suggest perhaps the stocks are not going to stay in place. something to pay attention to but that is i divergence for the trump trade. vonnie: thank you for that. republican senators announced their opposition to the health care bill announced, and not 's effortitch mcconnell to pass that debt, but repeal looks like a no go, as well. --sident trump to reading let obamacare fail and come together and do a great health care plan, stay tuned. a professor of economics and the architect of obamacare from massachusetts, where he and mitt romney work to put something similar to obamacare in action. i am sure that you are not
unhappy about the idea that this looks like it will fail, including repeal and replace later. what might some kind of a bipartisan health care plan going but would look like? first, we do not know where the republicans are. the director of night of the living dead recently passed away and is paralleled because these bills are like zombies. they keep coming back. i do not know that the republican effort to cause millions of people to lose health insurance and raise premiums is dead but let's presume it is. that bipartisan path includes elements. one is strengthening the individual mandate, the second is honoring the obligations made to reduce uncertainty insurance companies face and that there it is to step up a stabilization growto help stabilize and insurance exchange markets. vonnie: those three sound like they require money.
where would that come from? jonathan: in the republican bill, they had a number of elements. they were working on cost sharing, they were going to have a stabilization fund, and pay by slashing medicaid. these issues would have involved that use spending. i believe a party is about to tax trillions of dollars in cuts should not pocket tens of billions of dollars required to save life insurance markets. vonnie: how would you strengthen their individual mandate? jonathan: the main thing is to make it clear it is the law of the land that people be subject to penalties if they do not pay. the finds out to be growing faster, basically with medical inflation and not with regular inflection as they are now. vonnie: that already sounds like a difficult thing to achieve given the mandate itself was a difficult thing to have agreed upon. let's move on to the
stabilization fund. there were $70 billion and more even ended up being much more than that allocated in this republican plan for the senate, where that have been enough? jonathan: it would not have if they repealed all the features of obamacare, but if you keep it in place, i do not know for sure, but $70 billion is in the right range of what you need. state insurance companies, here is real risk protection and insurance. when they said that medicaid part d, they put in a reassurance program. the designers of obamacare did the same and republicans refused to honor the payments. we know the program can work. it was successful. i think $70 billion would be in the ballpark of what you need to do it. vonnie: this sounds great, but we know from certain republicans, a divided party,
that one wants to pull it one way and the other the other way, and neither of what both polar ones is what you suggest, they would not agree to any of that, a bipartisant solution. jonathan: i will slightly disagree. if you listen to the words moderate republicans are same, which is they went to stabilize insurance markets and bring premiums down, that is what i outlined would do. you only need a few of them to work with the democrats to put that in place. i agree it is unlikely but not impossible. vonnie: say that is dead in the water, is there anything else you can come up with? jonathan: no. you could strip out the mandate case and just do the spending piece, but if you do not do those pieces, i do not know what else you can do. we just move on to the next debate and the obamacare go forward. it will struggle for a little bit because president trump has weakened the law with executive
action, but in the long run, the market will stabilize. once ensures realize the law is to stay, they will participate. talkingso, are you about the likes of virginia that they pulled out of? jonathan: yes, before president insurers.counties had it is the uncertainty that has created these last withdrawals. -- once it gets resolved, you will see insurers be more active in the markets. vonnie: what is the biggest flaw in the affordable care act for obamacare if you could fix? not wanting to see flaws in your baby, but is there when you would want to tweet? jonathan: i would have to give the two. the one thing i would like to fix that i feel the law does not do enough to protect lower, middle income families from high
medical bills, i feel there are these laws sharing subsidies and they do not go high enough. you are talking about family said are two or three times the poverty line and if they get hit with bills one or two years in a row, they could face high spending situations, even under obamacare. the other is political. the law politically can largely be traced to the fact that opponents have misled people about this law, have lied about it, and i think the political fix is to get people to understand what it is doing for them. i think trump has done that more than anybody. vonnie: we have got final confirmation that the senate gop lacks the boat first are -- lacks the vote for straight obamacare appeal. it is not going forward for a vote. democrats have not wanted anything to do with this all along, so they were out of the picture, but at one point, it
was suggested a single payer system might not be out of the question, not immediately but evern generations, do you see a single payer system being a lot the land in the united states? jonathan: never say never, but i do not see it possible in the near term. we try to do health care reform every 17 years, and every time it has failed, we moved to the right. obamacare was much less aggressive and ambitious than the clinton effort, and i don't see how that pattern would move to the left with single-payer. i do not see the widow in the near term. vonnie: jonathan gruber, thank you and congratulations. economic.i.t. professor and architect of the affordable care act. some breaking news now, the president says he is disappointed on health care," disappointed on health care." himill have playback of
speaking at the white house as soon as we can. he is reacting to the senate gop lacking the vote for a fulls repeal. mark: theresa may is being encouraged to fire disloyal ministers. several top conservative party officials want the prime minister to put an end to the backstabbing, according to one party official. over the weekend, several of prime minister may's per ministers spoke out against philip hammond. a senior eu official says pressure appears to be working. the saudi led coalition cut diplomatic ties with cutter on what -- whaith qatar. the group is not looking for a quick fix. huge,want to take away huge support for this terrorism that we are seeing everywhere. we need a solution that will
stick. we need a solution that is long-term. mark: the coalition is demanding that qatar and its relationship with the muslim brotherhood. they have refused. the former speaker of the u.s. house has been released from prison in minnesota and transferred to a chicago reentry facility. that is according to the federal bureau of prisons. he was sentenced to 15 months in prison in april 2016 after pleading guilty to violating federal banking law. the illinois republican admitted trying to pay $3.5 million in allegationso keep of sexual abuse secret. in tokyo, uncertainty over the final budget of the 2021 potential continue until 2019 according to the head of the olympic organizing committee, which is searching for more cost-effective options. the estimated cost of the tokyo games has soared to 12.6 billion dollars, twice the amount took
your proposed went awarded the games four years ago. --global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. vonnie: thanks. coming up, augmented reality startup is trying to liberate the workplace. no more screens, keyboards are writing utensils, just a headset. that story next. this is bloomberg. ♪
president trump: i would say i am disappointed. it will go on and we will win, we will win on taxes, infrastructure and lots of other things we're doing. we are winning the war on the border. we are very much decimating isis. you see that better than anybody sees it. we have had a lot of victories, but not on health care. we are disappointed. i am very disappointed because even as a civilian for seven years, i have been hearing about health care, and i have been hearing about repeal and replace, and obamacare is a total disaster. some states had over 200% , andase in their premiums their deductibles are through the roof. it is an absolute disaster. i think you will also agree that i have been saying for a long time, let obamacare fail and everybody will have to come together and fix it.
and come up with a new plan, a plan really good for the people with lower premiums and better protection. i have been saying that for a long time, let obamacare failed. it will be a lot easier. i think we are in that decision, where we let obamacare failed. we are not going to own it. i am not going to own it. the republicans are not going to own it. obamacare will fail and democrats will come to us and say, how do we fix it or come up with a new plan? we will see what happens. there are other things going on but i'm disappointed because for so many years i have been hearing repeal and replace. i am sitting in the oval office waitinga hand in hand, to sign something, and i'll be waiting and eventually we will get something done and it will be very good. obamacare is a big failure and it has to be changed great we
have to go to a plan that works, a much less expensive plan in terms of premiums and something will happen and it will be very good. it may not be as quick as we hope but it will happen. >> [indiscernible] disloyal, wered they disloyal? were not trump: they disloyal, they had their reasons. i was surprised those two folks came out, but they did. everybody has their own reasons. if you think about it, you look at it and we have 50 new people, no democrat support, which is something that should be said we should have had democrats voting for a great plan for people. we had 52 people, we had four ,o's we might have had -- no's and we might have had another one, but it was close to 48-4, a
pretty impressive vote by any standard. yet, you have a boat like that and you need four, that is pretty tough. to2018, we are going to have get more people collected. we have to get more people elected that a republican. we had to pull in those few people that voted against it but i do not know, they will have to explain to you why they did, but we have to get more republicans elected because we have to get -- we have to get a bill to pass through the house. you cannot use this head as a stand, we do not want that to happen. you are messing with the wrong guy here. i think we are going to do well in 2018. i would not be surprised if something were done before that, but in any event because the margin is a small, we are going to have to go out and get more republicans elected in 2018, and i'll be working hard for that to
happen. it would be nice to have democrat support, that they are obstructionists, they have no ideas, no thought process, all the want to do is obstruct government and obstruct period. so many good things, we did not get one bill and their plan has failed. by the way, obamacare is not . iling, it has failed, done think something will happen. we will find out, stay tuned. >> thank you, mr. president. president trump: thank you. vonnie: you have been listening to president donald trump band vice president mike pence at the white house on the news that the gop does not have to votes to repeal obamacare and the president expressed disappointment, saying, we are not going to own it, we will not own it, we will that democrats come to us and say, how are we
going to fix it? he says we have to go to a less expensive plan and it might not be as quick as we hope that it will happen. he mentioned in 2018, we have to get more people elected because he talked about wanting a wider margin. he said that margin is a small, we are going to have to get more people elected. he said obamacare is not failing. it has failed. this is bloomberg. ♪
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here are the top stories we are watching at this hour. efforts to replace obamacare have died as the senate gop lacks votes. the chairman of aic, barry diller joins us live from boston. plus, we hear from joshua green steve new book about bannon, donald trump and the presidency. ♪ vonnie: back to our main story today, the gop's senate house health care bill -- donald trump acknowledging he's disappointed in the results, "we are not going to own it