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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  July 19, 2017 3:30pm-5:00pm EDT

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spoke today after a working lunch telling them the bill and current form -- we will have more on the gop health care plan coming up. voter fraud commission first meeting by criticizing the it failed comply with the request to turn over voter information. president trump: one has to wonder what they're worried about. i asked the commission, what are they worried about? there is something, there always is. many states refused the request for detailed voter data and party registrations. uphold the integrity of the
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ballot and insisted it would be nonpartisan and follow the facts wherever they might lead. itan passes warning that might retaliate for any new u.s. sanctions that violate the terms of the nuclear deal. it called iran's assistant everest to destabilize the middle east. that presidents as president trump is trying to provoke iran. labor leader jeremy corbyn is adding to the pressure. bickering and back fighting while the economy weakens. dayal news 24 hours a however more than -- global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more
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than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: live from bloomberg world had gores in new york, i am scarlet fu. joe: we are down to the close of trading. >> u.s. stocks games. joe: the question is what did you miss? >> president trump issues a rallying cry to unite. could he and his first year without a legislative win? we will look at why the meeting has more stake than in previous years.
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the majorook at where averages stand. >> gains for all three major s&p 500 and nasdaq on pace for a second day record highs. the nasdaq up for a ninth straight day. the earningsn as season is getting underway. here are standout movers. up 22% on paper the best basis 2014.
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state forest best day since 2008 on the possibility of a takeover. we will watch to see what happens in the future. plus take a look -- qualcomm, t-mobile, american express. t-mobile up and looking for subscribers here. american express, we will see whether or not it was damaged in any way.
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tying all of these stocks together, by the trump trade has been a little bit of a rough week for president trump relative to agenda and policy not been put through. this is 6202. out of the collection. at this point, we had the tech and the financial space tied for the top spot and bottom, telecom. stocks higher out of the election. it is weaving in-between, joe. joe: thanks, abigail. topresident trump summoned the white house today telling them to buckle down on health care after a devastating collapse yesterday. president trump: we have to stay here, we should not leave town, we should hammer it out and get it done. >> the failure of his obamacare repeal coupled with snap
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leavess is threatening to him with a winless this year. >> we saw there were 50 votes we .aw there were 50 votes talking about the motion to proceed on each of these. are the odds of moving on to a debate and a vote increased? >> would only increase of some senators already coming out against it slipped. that is not happen. what mcconnell said after the republicans met with president trump at the white house was there will be a motion to proceed our earlier -- early next week. going,r to get anything they have to be able to proceed to the house bill and after that , they can make changes and andr amendments to it
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decide whether to do repeal only or repeal and replace at the same time. it is a little noisy behind me because there is a medicare for all protest happening. .ongressional senate offices moreor mcconnell sounded optimistic than the numbers would suggest. he does not seem to have the votes to begin for any of these pieces of legislation. unless there is a miracle, we're going to do -- go down and see what we heard from the president today, a pep rally to get republicans to soften on their opposition. you describe way it, a pep rally. mitch mcconnell came out and spoke to the press following the luncheon with the president. here's what he said. mitch mcconnell: we had a great lunch with the president. i want to start by thanking the president and the vice president and tom, who have been totally
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engaged in anything -- everything we have done in the last two weeks. >> it is interesting says the president was engaged because there was criticism he could have been more engaged. the research fellow at the ontitution for mitt romney tuesday, he was what he had to say. >> could the president have waited big a role? i'm solely. there is a question about whether the president could have influenced the senate process. and run their own states have their own sets of issues. it is not clear to me president trump could have intervened and made a huge difference but he could have been a more prolific tweeter in favor of the bill if it was some he believed needed to get across the finish line. think i've heard more republican say he could've been more prolific a tweeter.
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>> the deputy press secretary confirming cost payments to insurance companies will be made this month. this is a key aspect to stabilization. no longer term commitment. they're not pulling the plug get. who is toestion of blame and whether trump could have done more to sell the bill and winter -- whether senators , who is taking the blame? >> probably more so than anyone else. because of the way this turned out. about the secrecy of the bill. up until a day or two before this, the bill was released. senator ron johnson has been critical of the process as well.
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there is onek prison who will get the blame here. 50 out of 52 republican senators united on health care when the spectrum is this wide and there is this wrought a range of opinions, it was always going to be extremely difficult. is, he will outcome own it to an extent for that reason. >> president trump has changed his tone a little bit day-to-day on the health care bill yesterday, saying it will fail and the democrats will only obamacare collapse and now he is saying they will have to fight it out and get this deal. is just the desire to get his first win and not be someone who half a year into his first term hasn't achieved anything major legislatively? >> it is huge and hard to measure how important this is but based on the fact the president has not been particularly engaged with the details of the bill, a lot of
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what we heard today was criticism of obama care him. he was heavy on that before the meeting. republican senators do not need to hear that. they have memorized the talking points for the past seven years in congress. they need to hear how he will bridge these divides between the ted cruz wing of the party and the susan collins wing of the party. how do you bridge complexed nuanced policies? it is not something the president has been able to do because of his lack of engagement with policy details of the bill, where he is getting the most criticism. in terms of tweeting more that actually could have had an impact if he had a specific vision. disjointed have been and not always consistent.
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he changes his mind based on the landscape at the moment like you to moving to repeal and replace and then know, just repeal it, and now back to repeal and replace, all in the matter of a few days. >> thank you. coming up, joshua green details the making of president donald trump in his new book, devil's bargain. it is an incredible rate. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the failure of the gop health care plan undermines the present of his to make ability. how exactly did we get here? joshua set up to answer that in
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a new book. store shelves this week. david's book which ushered about the ability to govern. >> this is the republican health care death spiral. this is a shot a note is falling apart. trump does not have experience legislating and neither do most senior officials. it is also a problem with the republican agenda on health care. this is something mitch mcconnell and republicans have been committed to for years and when they got the opportunity to pass it, they could not. >> you chart his clinical evolution. what does his engagement look like? what do you make of the relationship between that white house and capitol hill? >> i think steve bannon sees
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everything, like trump, as a test of power. can we enforce these guys to enact our agenda? yet seen flashes of that where there was a super pack flashed , there were talks a couple of days ago. it is just not an effective way to build a legislative coalition. i do not think bannon or trump realizes that. until someone figures it out, they will have a tough time doing things like raising the debt limit, keeping the government -- never mind passing agenda. >> something donald trump thought about for some time, what made him do it finally and how did these bannon become involved? question him have been talking about running for president since 1988. it is striking how similar he sounded than compared to now.
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the only difference is instead of him complaining about china, he's complaining about japan. around 2011 when he met steve bannon is when he got serious about running for president, even though none of us recognize that the time. to me wasl moment 2011 when he started the birther crusade against president obama. i talked to roger stone in the book, one of roger's longtime advisers. he said trump really wanted a run for president in 2012 and as we now know, his way of engaging with opponents is to emasculate and belittle them. the birther campaign was his attempt to shrink and diminish president obama in expectation that he would run. book where in the trump was humiliated in the white house correspondents in 2011 by president obama himself and saturday night live. seth meyers. which i think strengthened
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trump's resolve to run for president isabel everybody, and i include myself, thought what really happened is trump led in early dispatch from politics and humiliated from his birther crusade. instead, he came back stronger four years later talking about immigration and the power of illegal immigration, an idea he got steve bannon. he goes through and he actually runs and he takes the anti-immigrant populist nationalism that bannon espouses. that was the vehicle that carried him to the white house. >> you portray steve bannon as someone -- first sarah palin, and then michele bachmann. that implies there is some emptiness to it. if you look at how donald trump's governing, how much of the policy platform and what he professes and wants to do can be tied back to what steve bannon wants to do?
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>> it is a great question. trump was maybe have or three quarters filled with bannon's politics. ande is a lot they agree on there was going back to the 1980's. bannon is against globalism and free trade and thinks the working-class guys getting screwed by the local economy. -- global economy. bannon,p recognized in here is a guy who has a coherent set of ideas that i can run on. it was trumps nationalist and populist pitch that first one him the gop nomination. the problem with trump is i don't think he believes these things in his bones in the way steve bannon does. you had athe bat, flurry of activity, the travel bans, and is. backfired and turned instead to embrace the globalist wing of the trump administration led by steve
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mnuchin, gary cohn, and the people bannon pretty much cannot stand. >> there are touch points along the way. at harvard business coal and goldman sachs and there is the way donald trump is aligned with corporate america. he positioned himself to be a really uniting figure politically. to me, this is the revelation in story ofand i tell the how corporate america phone love with donald trump in the mid-2000's. at the time, i did not realize it was happening. 2005 come the apprentice was a huge hit. not only because it draws --wers big -- but because that made the apprentice and trump it wonderful advertising vehicle for place -- things like
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toyota and mcdonald's, many of which advertised with him for years. there is a scene in the book where trump built up the audience, built of an appeal that republicans nationally would have loved to have had for their party. republicans for a generation wanted to appear more to young people and minorities and african-americans. trump is poised to run as a transformative republican candidate who could have run openel pro-business kumal arms kind of republican campaign. instead, he decided the way to win the nomination was to go completely in the other direction toward a nativist -- brand of earth risen that he and a lot of anti-immigrant stuff that bannon filled his head with an dead, we wind up with a president trump pulling his party in a different direction. >> that was joshua green, author
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of the new book, devils argan -- bargain. >> overwhelmingly in favor of the proposed buyout by maine shall -- shareholder british american tobacco. one than 90% of shareholders both sides proof the $49.4 billion deal. the companies anticipated closing deal within the next week. money managers are 20% underweight here u.s. stocks, the lowest allocation since 2008. according to bank of america merrill lynch survey. the successful if the u.s. is the most overvalued region. that is your bloomberg business flash. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: a drop off in trading -- me not hurting
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line is500, the yellow the 20 day moving average of u.s. comps it volume. as he got to the end of the nonholiday session this year. we have seen this over and over we have seen here back in february of 2016, as dust or cover and make new highs. that has pretty much been the case so far this year. this is where it gets particular. this year it was a lot lower than it was in 2016. record highs in u.s. stocks are coveted by lack of conviction, maybe apathy? or is this just how things go? joe: why bother trading when the best reggie is to buy stocks and go to the beach, exactly right? here's one thing investors are little concerned about.
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i am looking at very short premiums and very short-term u.s. debt. this is something you do not see often. debtedline's government expire in october and the white line is up -- november. the red line is higher. shorter-term debt yielding a little more. the reason that is right around the debtwe will hit ceiling according to estimates for the treasury and so forth. this is not major, but it is showing a little bit of anxiety in the shape, a little bit of a kink where the timing right around where payments are going to come at the end of october, trading out of a slight premium. maybe people are concerned about a delay or something, seeing the debt ceiling negotiations. something to watch, a rarity that could be explained by little bit of anxiety. >> we have seen this show before under the obama administration. everything has been different this time around. take a look at where the s&p and
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the s&p and nasdaq are trading record highs for both indexes. ibm after it's disappointing revenue yesterday. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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recordsand nasdaq a new , all of 11 sectors. i am scarlet fu. joe: i am joe weisenthal. "what'd you miss?" are joining on twitter, we want to welcome you to our coverage every day from 4:00 to 5:00 p.m. scarlet: new highs for the s&p and nasdaq. the dow held back by ibm. revenue disappointing, but the dow up as well. i guess we can credit housing data. continuation of the trend where stocks seen to only go up. thelet: big tech one of
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contributors, the nasdaq at a record high, less than 1%, but uniform gains over fang names. we also want to bring your attention to some m&a euphoria. scripps network ending 15%, discovery 14%, viacom around 2%. discovery wanting to buy scripps. viacom held separate discussions with scripps. all of this consolidation as the media landscape changes. been leftanies have out of some of those new packages. earnings, morgan stanley trading came out the best of the banks, a contrast to
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goldman sachs where trading was a disappointment. back they 4%, holding dow average. joe: we have a trading halt on t-mobile, news is pending on that stock. ons, theto government u.s. two-year and 10 year yields , not a lot going on there. 10-year yields 2.27%. scarlet: the dollar holding near recent lows. this is a bloomberg dollar index, a fresh 11 month low. part of that is because the euro has gained more than 9% before today to its highest level since may 2016. the euro now pulling back from gains before tomorrow's ecb
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decision. the boj also holding its meeting tonight, the only major central bank to show a clear commitment to maintaining stimulus. i am watching dollar candidate , the latestw 1.26 batch of canadian manufacturing data stronger than did, bolstering the case of another rate hike. joe: on commodities, not the busiest day. west texas intermediate crude oil jumping 1.5%, over $47 a barrel. inventor inventory showing declines, and gold basically doing nothing. ,carlet: qualcomm reporting
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$.83, two cents better than estimate. , higherlion revenue than expected. qualcomm outlook fourth-quarter to $.81.earnings $.75 qualcomm one of the chipmakers for apple,a supplier and at a lot of questions about whether there will be commentary on this legal dispute between apple and qualcomm. legal claims that undermine the chipmakers attempt to force apple and other contract manufacturers to pay licensing fees. we will look for commentary on that in the conference call and earnings release. joe: some earnings from american of $1.47,2 eps revenue of $8.3 billion.
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we see the initial reaction is up 1.5% in after-hours trading. have analysts expectations, but the market liking what it is seeing initially. scarlet: we have a headline. marketake in whole foods jana. we will keep you posted on developments. joe: let's get some insight from oliver renick. the earnings are coming fast and heavy. we are still early days, but have we learned any trends we can discern? oliver: a few things. firstly, bank earnings, the read
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through on what will happen in terms of companies related to policy, and the fundamental core of banks and what has been happening with the trading. we will get some industrial stuff this week. it was a sector that lagged today. the bar is high to beat overall. macrove that issue from a standpoint, from the benchmark level, a big expectation. people will be watching issuances. it is no coincidence you have a market hitting highs. tick throught to what we can, but time and time again, markets go up when earnings are positive pitte.
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qualcomm just reported, the guidance was not so great. you talked about how were not getting a read through into the rest of the year as companies have been giving before. is this the political environment or not much upside to give an outlook when stocks are so lofty. good point. is a the best data is bank of america. it shows after the election that corporate executives were hesitant. we have not seen what that will second quarter yet. that tells you that in addition to the political stuff, they are aware that a lot of companies are fully valued and before they start giving bold as to men's, they probably want to to keep that in mind. it is probably related more towards the uncertainty of
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policy and a new administration and a lot of x rotations. another example, we are talking about corporate tax cuts in the 20's. what do people save about why markets don't seem to care what goes on in d.c.? oliver: pricing political risk or outcome is difficult. tax cuts are easier. this is what will happen to different companies and their bottom lines, but when you talk about health care or regulations , there are so many different outcomes. the likelihood they will happen quantitatively is pretty tough. here is something that will be pro-business, and you can think longer term, but trading around
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that becomes difficult. so what do you do? you trade on fundamentals and economic data. when earnings are solid, history is what investors are looking at. scarlet: let's give you a recap of some of the earnings. qualcomm, fourth-quarter outlook trailing estimates. that outlook excludes quarterly revenue related to the sale of apple products. we will be looking for commentary on legal issues with apple. $1.47 beating $1.44 for american express, revenue 8.3 billion ahead of expectations, so a modest beat on the bottom and top line. now the stock pricing of little bit after hours. scarlet: t-mobile halted from trading. the company came out with
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results, boosting its full-year outlook, and the midpoint tops consensus estimates, so t-mobile boosting its forecast for the year, net customer additions, so perhaps we will get a trade soon in t-mobile. janato recap a headline, has reported a 0% stake in whole foods. previously they had 9% according to our reporting. this is after amazon made a bid for whole foods, so perhaps this is a sign they don't think there is another bid. joe: they made their money and are taking their profits. scarlet: we will continue to monitor earnings for you. in the meantime, this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: mitch mcconnell spoke after a meeting with donald trump. thanking to start by the president and the vice .resident they have been totally in gauged in have done for the last two weeks. mark: the president said any republican senator is saying that are "fine" with obamacare. pressing ahead with the budget plan designed to help the party
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deliver on the tax code overhaul. the plan promises to cut more than $5 trillion from the budget over the coming decade. conservative republicans want more spending cuts, and moderates are concerned that programs such as food stamps could go too far. that russian lawyer at the center of the controversy is offering to testify before the u.s. senate about the encounter. state tv,o russian she says she is ready to clarify only throughn " legal means, either lawyers or testifying in the senate." according to documents released by donald trump jr. that trump tower was set up to provide information about then democratic presidential candidate earlier clinton. citizens will have to work longer before they can claim a state pension. the government will raise the age from 6060 268 over two years
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starting in 2037. the reason, the mounting costs of an aging population. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" president trump's economic agenda faltering, but stocks not taking a notice. the s&p 500 and nasdaq touching new highs. joe: david, thank you for joining us. do equities care about the trump policy agenda one way or another? >> yes, they do. what has changed is the expectations for a major tax policy have become very small, and what ever they are now are limited to some repatriation,
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small change in corporate tax policy, and maybe a small change in individual policy, so what has happened is those expectations have fallen since trump was elected. the u.s. economy has done better than people have expected. the global economy as well, so you have a counter affect. people calculated how much increased earnings a company would have at the beginning of the year, and companies operating in different jurisdictions globally would do better. joe: when you look at the u.s. equity market, how do you break down what is related to policy and maybe some downplaying of expectations, and what is related to growth and where you see that? >> the biggest factors associated with earnings, which are growing at a remarkable rate. those expectations are large.
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is fundamental growth, topline growth and earnings improvement. a reason to pay more for equities in this environment. a u.s. investor, we to europeg overseas and emerging markets, where valuations are less than here. like the u.s. market, we are moving wealthy clients to emerging markets in europe. on the earnings question, the comparisons will get more difficult as year goes on, so that will be a headwind. we also talked with oliver renick about how you're not getting much guidance from ceos on outlook. the headwinds in the form of less guidance,d does that sustain equities or keep them at these levels? >> you would think with the vix
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less than 10 that there would be some change, and you're right come the year over your comparisons for 2017 and 2018 will be difficult, but we are seeing a sense of momentum that is quite strong for the remainder of the year at least, and the year over year comparisons and quarter to quarter are very strong, so investors are hopeful, but ceos are looking at lot of uncertainty about what u.s. growth will look like, what global growth will look like, and that's why you're seeing this tension. it will be a tough year-over-year comparison for sure. scarlet: may be a bit of a reality check. let's talk about this shift. where are we in the process, second inning or seventh-inning? >> this is second inning stop. we are talking about valuation discounts on an earnings basis of 40% emerging markets versus the u.s., and we are not
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recommending anyone emerging market, but a basket of them. i'm sure one will falter along the way, but discounts of this degree are rare, and sustained discounts of this degree are also rare, and we think this is a time when emerging markets will catch up. would have been a huge beneficiary of the changes in tax policy, and in the absence of tax policy come the dollar has lost 6% of its value. we think that is where this is going. le we cannot call a top, the dollar will be weaker. terms of non-equities, people speculating this could be a terrible year for bonds, has not panned out. what are you thinking with regard to that allocation? >> we are allocating less to
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bonds and more to emerging markets there. when you look at the market in general, the reason it has not is interest rates will not rise as much in an environment not stimulated by the policies we were talking about. when you look at the totality of this, rates lower for longer, and yellen implied this, and if that is true, equities are now ridiculously valued, and this could turn out to be a good 12-18 months for investors even so anhese high levels, unusual time because how we feel politically and our experiences and the absence of progress on economic policy is taking place, but the fundamentals are also very strong, and that is where we are today. scarlet: we will get an update on the fed thinking next wednesday. thank you so much. president trump tweeting -- excuse me, speaking of the white
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house, saying steel tariffs "could happen." this is something we have heard in the past. he has not given any indication it will happen yet. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ "what'd you miss?" probably not the rise of natural gas. now a net exporter. potter at now is nick
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barclays. we have a deficit that is shrinking rapidly. was this by design, or did it happen accidentally? >> there is a lot of money spent on infrastructure because of the deficit we thought we would see. the shale gas revolution happened. we did not need those imports, and a lot is unutilized, underutilized. thisey decided to turn into export infrastructure and export this gas to international markets. scarlet: how quickly could we have a gas trade surplus? >> this year. at 32ficit peaked in 2005 billion. last year, a small deficit around 2 billion. by 2020, a surplus between 14 and 20 billion. the u.s. macroeconomy is not a
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big deal, but still moves the needle. joe: we have heard a lot about natural gas export terminals. repurposed for export in light of changes. are these exports profitable at these prices? >> that is where some confusion is. if you are a builder of a project, you are charging a fixed fee, so they are sitting pretty and a lot of other developers have structured it the same way. the arbitrage between u.s. gas and global gas matters. scarlet: what is the follow on effect from the u.s. eating such a prolific producer? how does it affect other fossil fuels and are green energy pursuits? weeks have been
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interesting because you have seen a scramble from other global gas exporters, realizing the u.s. will be a significant offrter, and that has set this wave of announcements from other projects saying they will try to take advantage of some of the demand we could see in the coming years. joe: we are looking at this chart, projections from bloomberg new energy finance, coal on this long, slow decline. gas not really picking up. renewables expected to grow over the coming decades. how much does the impact change? does that fit with how you see the market you folding? how do you see that -- market you folding. how do you see that impacting other projects? >> if you look at some of the projections last week, gas will grow the fastest out of all the
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other fossil fuels, so there is market share to be gained from the power sector, so power growth internationally we will be met by gas come in so it will have demand to be met in coming line, but that renewable is impressive and there will be increased competition for gas and renewables. thank you so much for joining us. up next, some of the year's best performing currencies are in the emerging markets, but more specifically, eastern europe. we will look at the strength of those emerging market currencies in eastern europe. joe: good stuff. scarlet: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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which is why comcast business delivers consistent network performance and speed across all your locations. fast connections everywhere. that's how you outmaneuver. mark: it is time for first word news. the supreme court has dealt a blow to president trump on his travel ban, rejecting his bid to bar entry by some people with family members already in the country. month let theast president start restricting entry. it means the government must accept people with grandparents and other relatives in the u.s.. the order gave the president a partial win, temporarily blocking a lower court ruling that would have opened the way for thousands of refugees to enter the country in the coming months.
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the supreme court arguments in the travel ban case are scheduled for october 10. john mccain's office says the senator is recovering comfortably after surgery to remove a blood clot above his left eye. a statement released today describes the 80-year-old john mccain in good spirits at home with his family. his doctors advised him to stay in arizona this week to recover. a day after theresa may appeal to ministers to stop plotting against her and each other, jeremy corbyn look to exploit the divide. >> mr. speaker, the reality is wages are falling come at the construction sector in recession, trade deficit widening, and crucial brexit negotiations. isn't it the truth that this
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divided government is unable to give their country the leadership it so desperately needs now to deal with these issues? mark: may shot back, saying jeremy corbyn is always talking britain down. hasprime minister of turkey swapped 11 ministers. monthsouncement came after the president regain the leadership of turkey's ruling party. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. a recap oft's get today's market action, another record high for the s&p and nasdaq. also gain, but held back because of ibm, i heavily weighted component of the dow,
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missing estimate in spirit looking ahead to what will move markets tomorrow, qualcomm with a forecast that left something to be desired when it came to what investors were looking for, the revenue outlook short of what analysts were looking for, so these stock is down 3.5%. that is a fourth-quarter eps outlook. joe: earnings from american express, falling a little in after hours. the numbers aren't too bad on the headline. eps $1.47, ahead of estimates of $1.44. revenue $8.3 billion ahead of $8.21 billion, total provisions for loan losses, $584 million. the company sees full-year 560 two 580.of the stock up a little bit in
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after hours trading. scarlet: we are still waiting for t-mobile shares to resume trading an extended session. the have been halted as company the estimates and raise forecast, so adjusted ebitda forecast has been raised, but t-mobile still not trading in the extended session. we will keep you posted. "what'd you miss?" a vesture say emerging markets, latin america typically comes to mind, but 2017 best performers are the polish, czech, and hungarian currencies. what then is driving the strength of these currencies? we are joined by our next guest now. questions, what is driving currencies like of the
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hungarian and check currencies? that, ite you answer seems we forget emerging market europe a lot. we talk about asia, south africa , it seems like these european currencies don't get the attention they deserve. >> there are some good stories there, absolutely. of eastern europe is tied to western europe. just as the eastern european countries suffer during the eurozone crisis, now they have been pushed up by a buoyant eurozone economy. to what extent are these high data place? , a way of eu on steroids to play the eu game with more leverage anbang for your box.
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-- your buck. emerging markets tend to underperform when things are going south, so it is all in timing as you know. scarlet: the central banks for these countries are pursuing different paths. the czech republic central bank ,et to raise interest rates bank of america sees the first rate hike in august, where as hungry will probably -- the will add moreulu stimulus. when does it come back to focusing on what the central banks are doing? >> growth of 2.5 percent, 3%, very strong, so it is surprising that hungary is still adding stimulus. hungary still stimulus, pollen on hold, but a dovish hold -- poland on hold, but dovish.
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, we are coming out of abnormally low interest rates, a crisis with us or 10 years. i think country should be out of these zero rate emergency settings. we are seeing more countries come around in emerging markets and developed markets. we may get some hands of have the ecb will unwind, so that is a good thing and markets will reward countries that are normalizing. worry about the countries that are still stepping on the gas pedal. crs .looking at w the peso, we know the story there. the polish currency up 14%, czech republic up 13%.
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i don't think a lot of people so theytrong feel, ok, are exposed to eurozone economies. fundamentally, what are the big growth drivers? when we talk about the polish economy, what are the big drivers? >> a lot of industrial goods, auto parts, auto assembly, so manufacturing, may be a step down from g10 countries. they can assemble and bill these automobiles and machinery and ship them to western europe with little transport costs, so it is a leverage play on what is going on in western europe. scarlet: i want to pull up this same chart pegged against the euro. here the gains are not as large. still up there among the best performers.
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going forward, given the different directions the central banks are taking, which do you believe will be the breakout currencies? the czech republic currency? >> yes. the czech national bank had an unorthodox policy before. 2013-2017, and that held. fiasco, butid of a they managed expectations. they said things are getting better and we need to normalize policy. hase march 30, it appreciated 4%, 5%, pretty solid. i look for further gains because they are likely to hike soon. by int sure august, but the fear we will have one-to rate hikes under our belt. thank you so much.
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coming up, top officials from the u.s. and china met today in deepening economic ties. it did not work out that way. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: this is a live shot, a made in america event at the white house. president trump said american workers have not had the playing field that is level. he added steel tariffs could happen. he added there is zero tolerance for counterfeiting and intellectual property theft. this is a live event taking
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place at the white house, made in america week. , the cbo breaking news will issue an estimate on the obama care repeal they'll later today. time,s not have an exact but the cbo has alerted everyone to pay attention for estimates on where the republicans are with their repeal, so we will keep an eye on that. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" the u.s. versus china and washington as the two biggest economies battle it out on trade. wilbur ross scolded china over the imbalance. >> china accounts for nearly 50% of the u.s. goods trade deficit. if this were just the natural product of free market forces, we could understand, but it is not. so it is time to rebalance our trade and investment in a fair,p
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equitable, and reciprocal manner. has beenmichael mckee following this for a and joins us live from the u.s. treasury. michael is also with us on set. time we got the headlines of wilbur ross complaining about the u.s. trade deficit, we learned china and the u.s. canceled a news conference they were supposed to hold at the end of the day. should we read into that? >> i don't know whether you can or can't. we believe the meeting has ended, but treasury won't confirm that and the details of what they talked about, so far, no discussion by either the treasury or chinese. , buts so early in the day
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we are still waiting to find out what was on the table. there was discussion of steel, a bilateral issue, but also a global issue. steel around the world and depresses the global price. maybe they work out something in that area. financial services is also something they were working on. china to open its doors to insurance and investment. morehinese are looking for market status and lower tariffs from the u.s., although american officials have said they don't want this to be a bilateral not negotiation in search of a treaty. there may be areas of cooperation. there was a lot for them to talk about. nobody expected a deal. they are hoping for a framework to keep this going, but they don't know yet. is there a opportunity for
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the president to meaningfully industries by changing the nature of the u.s.-china relationship? >> he could, but should he? artificial trade barriers can be good. you have to be smart about it. don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all, but one thing we need to do is take a step back. when we were going into the early stages of the trump residency, there were tariffs, andof 40% expectation for a large, global trade war. we are in a better situation we were then. we have seen milder rhetoric. ae fact they did not have press conference and are talking about steel, but i don't think we will be talking about 40% universal tariffs on chinese imports. china was just one target of
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president trump. he talked about germany, japan, and i don't think he will target -- he will not just target china. if he does anything, it will go against this whole basket. joe: we know within the administration that there are different voices, free trade, free trade skeptics, who has the president here these days on these topics? >> we don't know because he goes back in fourth. one day he is in favor of free and fair trade, and he has wrought us to these negotiations as opposed to these sanctions, but he also said today and has been quoted as saying steel sanctions may still happen, so it is not clear. it does look like the free and fair trade crowd, wilbur ross, steven mnuchin and, they are ascendant or at least in charge of the moment, but that does not
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mean those who would like to start a trade war have given out. scarlet: the chinese by's premier address the delicate relationship this morning. are eachand the u.s. other's biggest trade partner, an important source of investment here it cooperation is important for both sides. transcend allt differences, but confrontation will immediately damage the interests of both. joe: what would count as a win for china? scarlet: what do they want to come out of this discussion with? >> may be some modest changes on the fringes of trade policy. minimal tariffs, may be something minimal and the steel sector seems almost inevitable at this point. what do we need to worry about?
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i think there will be just modest changes on the fringes to trade policy unless what happens if growth starts slowing down or it looks like we will interact recession? this is where you could see some of trump protectionist rhetoric turn into action. havedoes the president direct control over in terms of economic and trade policy? you could if u.s. growth started slowing, seeing action behind some of these words, and that is what worries me. set when, you were on the framework for the new nafta negotiations came out, and your reaction was that it did not seem very controversial. the big picture here, it sounds like negotiations with china will be a little bit more complicated. the president seems fixated
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on the u.s.-china trade deficit, almost $400 billion and rising this year. they want action and to say they brought it to down. that will be hard to do. of theot a function trade rules so much as it is demand in the u.s. for cheaper chinese made products. it is not easy to manipulate. to leavese would like things unchanged, so they have a clash there, where as mexico, canada, and the u.s. have agreed that there are a lot of areas that need updating to the treaty signed in the 1990's, so they can make progress. there will be contentious areas, but you have that in every trade negotiation. scarlet: thank you very much. some breaking headlines. t-mobile shares have resumed trading.
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for were suspended, halted a while, now rising by almost 3%. john ledger currently speaking on the conference call, saying we will have 85 g network in 2019-2020. john ledger steering t-mobile's ,esurgence and subscriber gains prompting a price war which has weighed on inflation. joe: the market liking those numbers and comments. scarlet: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" technology threatens to make banking obsolete. banking could be disrupted and
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the same way amazon disrupted retail or uber revolutionized transportation. antony jenkins joined bloomberg television and spoke about the challenges the banking sector faces. >> all big companies are capable of innovation. it is very expensive for them, and mobile banking is an example of a good and successful innovation, just as kodak technologyigital around digital photography. you need to transform to respond to a disruption, and that is very difficult for large organizations to do. if you look at other industries, it is unusual to be able to transform themselves for large companies. scarlet: he talks about this kodak moment when customers realize there is a better way to do things. he said that could happen in 15-20 years.
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joe: i'd like the reimagining of the kodak moment. the moment means technology changes and you die. it is a bleak reimagining. scarlet: that is a great point. joe: maybe we should call it the polar right moment. scarlet: it is time for the bloomberg business flash. thousands of autonomous vehicles have been approved to hit the road while regulators develop standards and preempt rules. a house panel approved the legislation, the u.s. government's first step toward setting rules for the industry. trial is onli's hold after his lawyers objected to the juries viewing of investor agreements. defense attorneys argued investors need to be present for questioning. argues will continue to their positions until the trial resumes on friday. martin shkreli is accused of operating his companies as ponzi schemes.
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joe: coming up, what you need to know for tomorrow's trading day. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: another day, another record high for the standard & poor's 500, the nasdaq and the 100.aq
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you can imagine that the big tech names led the way. tech doing it again. scarlet: what's coming you, this, bank of japan, not a lot of drama expected for this one. more enthusiasm about the 7:45 eastern and the press conference, lots of see the about how they inflation risk from here on out. scarlet: with the euro on this you wonder how he as well. that >> that's all. bloomberg
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>> you're watching bloomberg technology. let's start with a check of your first word news. declaring tuesday to let obama care fail, president trump he a different message when met with g.o.p. senators at the
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white house today. president trump: my pretty much simple.really we should stay here, not leave town and hammer this out to get it done. >> senator majority leader mitch mcconnell said they will move debate the bill to repeal obama care. he spoke after meeting with the presidentnd members of the caucus telling the reporters the bill in its current form will be open for amendment. the nonpartisan congressional budget office will issue an stimate of the obama care reconciliation later today. nafta negotiations with scheduled to begin august 16. that is according to the u.s. trade representative. reps for u.s. trade the western hemisphere, john master negotiate for the u.s. talks run through august 20. says the arizona senator is recovering omfortably after surgery to remo alo

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